证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 固收点评 20251018 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251013-20251017） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 18 只，合计发行规模约 122.82 亿元，较上周减少 29.68 亿元。发行年限 多为 3 年；发行人性质为地方国有企业、央企子公司、大型民企、其他 企业；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为广东省、北京市、贵 州省、江苏省、河南省、山东省、上海市、浙江省；发行债券种类为中 期票据、私募公司债、企业 ABS、交易商协会 ABN、超短期融资券。 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251013-20251017）绿色债券周成交额合计 613 亿元，较上周增 加 195 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为非金公司信用债、金融机 构债和利率债，分别为 306 亿元、226 亿元和 63 亿元；分发行期限来 看，3Y 以下绿色债券成交量最高，占比约 79.45%，市场热度持续；分 发行主体行业来看，成交量前三的行业为金融 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a significant increase in non-recurring net profit by 29% in the first three quarters of 2025, driven by rising metal prices and improved resource recovery capacity [7] - The company's operating revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 was 10.16 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 11.28%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 646 million, a year-on-year increase of 15.18% [7] - The report emphasizes the value of recycled resources amid rising metal prices, with the company expanding its resource recovery operations to include a wider range of metals [7] Financial Performance Summary - For 2023A, total revenue is projected at 10.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 20.58% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023A is estimated at 504.64 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 27.13% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is 0.33 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 23.09 [1] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 803.26 million, 909.25 million, and 1.05134 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 14.51, 12.82, and 11.08 [1][7] - The report anticipates a steady increase in operating cash flow, with a net cash flow from operating activities of 367 million in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 67.29% [7] Market Data - The closing price of the company's stock is 8.02 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 12.22 billion [5] - The company has a price-to-book ratio of 1.28 and a debt-to-asset ratio of 61.57% [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2025 met expectations, with total revenue of 23.50 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.38%, driven by the expansion of supply chain and other businesses [7] - The company plans to maintain a dividend payout ratio of no less than 65% from 2025 to 2027, ensuring shareholder returns [7] - The company is advancing its green methanol project, aiming to establish a production capacity of 200,000 tons per year, with a total investment of 10 billion yuan [7] - The projected net profit for 2025-2027 is 8.72 billion yuan, 9.22 billion yuan, and 9.76 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding PE ratio of 19.3, 18.2, and 17.2 [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue forecast for 2023A is 25.54 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 34.96% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023A is projected at 844.45 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 28.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023A is estimated at 0.65 yuan per share [1] - The company’s total assets are expected to reach 19.31 billion yuan by 2024A, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 54.43% [6][8] - The operating cash flow for 2024A is projected at 1.75 billion yuan [8]

Group 1: Monetary Policy Impact - From January 2020 to September 2025, the central bank conducted a total of 39 monetary policy easing operations[19] - During the 12 "bear steep" phases, the proportion of A-shares outperforming the 10-year government bond yield reached 53.8%[28] - In the 5 "bear flat" phases, this proportion increased to 66.2%[28] Group 2: Stock Performance by Style - Defensive stocks benefited significantly from monetary easing, with an average outperformance ratio of 50.4%[32] - Growth stocks, on the other hand, showed a more ambiguous benefit, with an average outperformance ratio of 48.3%[32] - The average outperformance ratios for defensive, semi-defensive, semi-cyclical, and cyclical stocks were 50.4%, 49.6%, 48.2%, and 47.6%, respectively, indicating a decreasing trend[32] Group 3: Economic Conditions and Expectations - If monetary easing coincides with improved expectations for corporate profits and economic recovery, equity markets may perform better despite a bear bond market[27] - The performance of growth stocks in response to monetary easing is conditional, while defensive stocks, which are less sensitive to economic cycles, show clearer benefits[27] - If the equity market lacks clear expectations for fundamental improvements, defensive stocks may still underperform relative to bonds during monetary easing periods[27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company's non-net profit for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 38% year-on-year, with a significant improvement in operating cash flow [2][3] - For Q1-3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.77%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 91 million yuan, up 28.88% year-on-year [2] - The gross profit margin for Q1-3 2025 was 40.37%, an increase of 2.84 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 26.16%, up 2.43 percentage points year-on-year [2] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2023A: 340.47 million yuan, 2024A: 407.95 million yuan, 2025E: 534.23 million yuan, 2026E: 675.31 million yuan, 2027E: 842.74 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 20.70%, 19.82%, 30.96%, 26.41%, and 24.79% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be: 2023A: 81.63 million yuan, 2024A: 100.52 million yuan, 2025E: 133.98 million yuan, 2026E: 171.07 million yuan, 2027E: 215.64 million yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 28.74%, 23.14%, 33.28%, 27.69%, and 26.05% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is projected to be: 2023A: 0.56 yuan, 2024A: 0.69 yuan, 2025E: 0.92 yuan, 2026E: 1.17 yuan, 2027E: 1.47 yuan [1] Operational Insights - The company has demonstrated strong innovation and research capabilities, breaking the monopoly of DuPont in the aramid paper sector, making China the second country capable of producing aramid paper [4] - The company has established a solid customer base, including well-known domestic and international enterprises such as AVIC Group, CRRC, ABB, Siemens, and Schneider Electric [4] - The report anticipates growth in demand for aramid insulation paper in various sectors, including new energy vehicles, wind power, photovoltaic power, and domestic large aircraft, which will drive future revenue growth [4]

证券研究报告·海外公司点评·纺织及服饰(HS) 361 度（01361.HK） 25Q3 流水点评：超品店开店加速，户外品牌 ONEWAY 焕新亮相 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 8,423 | 10,074 | 11,377 | 12,653 | 13,990 | | 同比(%) | 21.01 | 19.59 | 12.94 | 11.22 | 10.57 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 961.43 | 1,148.62 | 1,304.14 | 1,457.57 | 1,616.25 | | 同比(%) | 28.68 | 19.47 | 13.54 | 11.76 | 10.89 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 0.46 | 0.56 | 0.63 | 0.70 | 0.78 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 11.51 | 9.63 | 8.48 | 7.59 | 6. ...

Macro Strategy - The report highlights a recovery in direct financing and the continued activation of deposits, with expectations for fiscal and monetary policies to boost financing demand in Q4 2025 [1][4][6] - The social financing scale in September 2025 saw an increase of 3.53 trillion yuan, which is a year-on-year decrease of 229.7 billion yuan, slightly below the seasonal average [4][6] - The report notes that the structure of social financing is improving, indicating a recovery in direct financing, with corporate bond financing increasing by 10.5 billion yuan year-on-year [4][6] Fixed Income - The report discusses the upcoming issuance of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02, with a total issuance scale of 1.677 billion yuan, aimed at funding distributed photovoltaic projects [7][8] - The expected listing price range for Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 is between 111.44 and 123.92 yuan, with an anticipated subscription rate of 0.0069% [7][8] - Jinlang Technology, the issuer, has shown steady revenue growth with a compound annual growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 to 2024, despite fluctuations in net profit [8] Company Analysis - China Pacific Insurance (02328.HK) is projected to see a net profit increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong performance in both underwriting and investment [9][10] - The underwriting profit for the first half of 2025 is expected to be 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45%, with a combined cost ratio of 94.8% [9][10] - The report raises the profit forecast for China Pacific Insurance, estimating net profits of 48 billion, 49.4 billion, and 52.8 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [9][10]

Core Conclusions - The market is expected to refocus on investment opportunities in smart vehicles in Q4, driven by the ongoing AI trend and the advancement of L4 capabilities in autonomous vehicles [2][3] - Key catalysts for smart vehicle development in Q4 include Tesla's V14 release, Xiaopeng's technology day, and the introduction of new autonomous vehicles by various companies [2][3] - The report anticipates a significant increase in L4 player participation by 2026, marking a pivotal year for Robotaxi [2] Comparison with Last Year - Similarities include the ongoing expansion of AI applications; however, this year emphasizes the evolution of AI logic rather than a resonance with automotive logic [3] - The focus has shifted from hardware opportunities and consumer sales to software opportunities and breakthroughs in B2B applications [3] Investment Strategy - Recommended investment strategy favors Hong Kong stocks over A-shares, prioritizing software over hardware, and B2B applications over B2C [6] - Key investment targets include companies involved in Robotaxi and Robovan, as well as those focusing on consumer vehicle sales [6] Consumer Willingness to Pay for Smart Features - The report outlines a projected growth in the domestic Robotaxi market, with expectations of reaching a scale of 0-30% penetration by 2025-2027 [14][15] - The focus for 2025-2027 is on enhancing the penetration of electric vehicles to 50%-80% [15] Autonomous Driving Capability Comparison - The report highlights the improvement in autonomous driving capabilities across various manufacturers, with a narrowing gap between leading and emerging players [7][20] - Specific penetration rates for autonomous driving features are provided, indicating a strong performance from brands like Xiaopeng and Wuling [20][23] Supply Chain Tracking - The report includes a detailed analysis of the smart vehicle supply chain, identifying key players in hardware, software, and vehicle manufacturing [10] - It emphasizes the importance of collaboration between technology providers and vehicle manufacturers to enhance the overall smart vehicle ecosystem [10] Market Outlook - The report forecasts a positive outlook for the passenger vehicle market, with expected retail sales growth in 2025 [24] - It also notes the impact of government policies on vehicle scrappage and the potential for increased consumer demand [24]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The expected listing price of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 on the first - day is between RMB 111.44 and RMB 123.92, with an estimated lottery winning rate of 0.0069%. It is recommended to actively subscribe [2]. - Jinlang Technology has shown steady revenue growth since 2020, with a compound growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 - 2024. However, the mother - company's net profit has fluctuated, with a compound growth rate of 21.41% during the same period [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Convertible Bond Basic Information - Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 (123259.SZ) will start online subscription on October 17, 2025, with a total issuance scale of RMB 1.677 billion. The net proceeds after deducting issuance fees will be used for projects such as distributed photovoltaic power stations [2]. - The current bond floor valuation is RMB 97.79, with a YTM of 2.30%. The convertible bond has a 6 - year term, a credit rating of AA -/AA, and a par value of RMB 100. The coupon rates from the first to the sixth year are 0.20%, 0.40%, 0.80%, 1.20%, 1.80%, and 2.00% respectively. The company's redemption price at maturity is 110% of the par value (including the last - period interest) [2]. - The current conversion parity is RMB 90.46, with a parity premium rate of 10.55%. The conversion period is from April 23, 2026, to October 16, 2031. The initial conversion price is RMB 89.82 per share. Jinlang Technology's closing price on October 15 was RMB 81.25 [2]. - The convertible bond terms are average. The total share capital dilution rate is 4.48%, and the dilution rate for the floating shares is 5.49%, indicating a relatively small dilution pressure on the share capital [2]. 3.2. Investment Subscription Suggestion - By referring to comparable targets and empirical results, considering the good bond floor protection of Jinlang Convertible Bond 02 and the average attractiveness of its rating and scale, the expected first - day listing conversion premium rate is around 30%, corresponding to a listing price between RMB 111.44 and RMB 123.92 [2][14][15]. - The estimated priority subscription ratio of original shareholders is 65.45%, and the estimated lottery winning rate is 0.0069% [16][17]. 3.3. Underlying Stock Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1. Financial Data Analysis - Jinlang Technology is a high - tech enterprise focusing on the R & D, production, sales, and service of string inverters, the core equipment of photovoltaic power generation systems. Since 2020, its revenue has grown steadily, with a compound growth rate of 33.10% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, the revenue was RMB 6.542 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.23%. The mother - company's net profit has fluctuated, with a compound growth rate of 21.41% from 2020 - 2024. In 2024, it was RMB 691 million, a year - on - year decrease of 11.32% [2][18]. - The company's revenue mainly comes from grid - connected inverters, and the product structure changes annually. From 2022 - 2024, the revenue proportion of grid - connected inverters in the main business revenue was 67.97%, 66.61%, and 57.96% respectively [20]. - The company's sales net profit margin and gross profit margin have remained stable. The sales expense ratio first decreased and then increased, the financial expense ratio has been rising, and the management expense ratio has shown a "W - shaped" fluctuation [25]. 3.3.2. Company Highlights - Jinlang Technology is an early entrant in the distributed photovoltaic inverter field in China, extending its advantages to the energy storage track. It is one of the leading global photovoltaic inverter manufacturers, with the world's top market share in household single - phase string inverters and ranking third globally for three consecutive years [34]. - The company has forward - looking track layout, achieving cross - field extension. It has built a "photovoltaic + energy storage" dual - wheel - driven business pattern and has obtained 55 authorized invention patents as of November 2024 [35]. - The company has deep technical barriers and outstanding solution capabilities. It has achieved AI technology empowerment for products in the full power range from 0.7kW to 350kW, and its core products have high - performance features [35].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Insights - The company is expected to see significant growth in net profit, with a forecasted increase of 40%-60% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, resulting in an estimated net profit of 375-428 billion yuan [8] - The company benefits from both underwriting and investment performance, with underwriting profit in the first half of 2025 reaching 13 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45% [8][3] - The implementation of "reporting and operation in one" for non-auto insurance is expected to enhance the company's profitability and operational efficiency [3] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue is projected to grow from 478.83 billion yuan in 2023 to 638.95 billion yuan by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 6.49% [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to rise from 24.59 billion yuan in 2023 to 52.76 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a CAGR of about 6.70% [3] - The book value per share (BVPS) is forecasted to increase from 10.40 yuan in 2023 to 17.73 yuan in 2027 [3] Underwriting and Investment Performance - The company reported a total premium growth of 3.6% in the first half of 2025, with non-auto insurance premiums accounting for 55.4% of total premiums [3] - The combined cost ratio for auto insurance improved to 94.2%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points year-on-year, indicating better underwriting efficiency [3][13] - The investment portfolio saw a significant increase, with stock investments growing by 64% year-on-year in the first half of 2025 [8][3]