请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 图8：产地炼焦煤价格（元/吨） 图9：国际炼焦煤价格（美元/吨，元/吨） 数据来源：中国煤炭市场网，东吴证券研究所 数据来源：Wind，东吴证券研究所 国际炼焦煤价格环比下跌：截至 12 月 27 日，澳洲峰景煤矿硬焦煤中国到岸不含税 价环比下跌 15 美元/吨，报价 198 美元/吨；截至 12 月 27 日，澳洲产主焦煤京唐港库提 价环比下跌 60 元/吨，报价 1520 元/吨。 澳洲产主焦煤京唐港库提价-右 东吴证券研究所 6 / 10 布伦特原油期货价格环比上涨：截至 12 月 27 日，布伦特原油期货结算价环比上涨 1.29 美元/桶至 74.17 美元/桶，涨幅 1.77%。 图10：布伦特原油价格（美元/桶） 图11：国际天然气与煤价对比（美元/百万英热） | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------------------|------------------------------------------------|----------------------|----------------------- ...

证券研究报告·金融工程·金工专题报告 "技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究（十六） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 研究结论 CPV 分时版 2024 年 12 月 29 日 证券分析师 高子剑 执业证书：S0600518010001 021-60199793 gaozj@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 庞格致 执业证书：S0600524090003 panggz@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《"技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究 （一）：高频价量相关性，意想不到的 选股因子》 2020-02-21 东吴证券研究所 1 / 22 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 前言：在东吴金工 2020 年发布的《"技术分析拥抱选股因子"系列研究 （一）：高频价量相关性，意想不到的选股因子》中，我们根据日内 240 分钟股票价格和成交量的相关性构建 CPV1.0 因子。因子在样本外表现 下降引发了我们的思考：将每日的分钟频价量相关性作为价量配合程度 的代理变量，是否合理？ ◼ 分时版因子的构建源自于量在时间上的不均匀分布：成交量在一天中的 分布极为不均匀，往往集中在开盘后的一段时间内，因此当我 ...

本周伦锌、沪锌库存环比下降。截至 12 月 27 日，LME 库存 24.45 万吨，较上周环 比下降 3.79%；SHFE 库存为 3.02 万吨，较上周环比下降 40.32%。 图13：LME 锌价及库存 图14：SHFE 锌价及库存 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------|-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------|--------------|-------|----------------|-------------|------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 | --- | --- | |------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

Industry Investment Rating - Overweight (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Brain-computer interface (BCI) technology enables direct communication between electronic devices and certain parts of the brain, enhancing and extending brain functions [1] - Non-invasive BCI technology is rapidly commercializing, with a global market size of $2.35 billion in 2023, projected to reach $10.89 billion by 2033, with a CAGR of 16.55% [2] - Invasive BCI is entering clinical trials, with significant advancements from companies like Neuralink and Synchron [3] - Policy support is increasing, with China's Ministry of Industry and Information Technology listing BCI as one of the top ten innovative products [1] Summary by Sections 1. What is Brain-Computer Interface (BCI) - BCI is a technology that establishes a communication and control channel between the brain and external devices, using bioelectrical signals to directly control devices or regulate brain activity [1] - BCI is classified into three types based on electrode placement: non-invasive, semi-invasive, and invasive [21] - Non-invasive BCI is the most common in China, while invasive BCI is still in clinical and animal testing stages [45] 2. Policy Support and Technological Breakthroughs - China has increased its focus on BCI, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issuing policies to promote innovation in BCI, brain fusion, and brain-like chips [1] - The US Brain Initiative has entered its 2.0 phase, with a total investment expected to reach $5 billion by 2026 [37] - South Korea plans to invest 400 billion KRW over the next decade in digital bio-innovation, including BCI [37] 3. Non-Invasive BCI: Rapid Commercialization - Non-invasive BCI applications are widely used in medical rehabilitation, with products like the IpsiHand Upper Limb Rehabilitation System and Muse 2 headband already commercialized [40][41] - The sleep aid market alone has a potential market size exceeding 15 billion yuan at a 1% penetration rate [2] - Non-invasive BCI devices are also being used for attention enhancement and sleep improvement, with products like Muse 2 and sleep aids from companies like BrainCo [41][42] 4. Invasive BCI: Entering Clinical Trials - Invasive BCI is in the clinical trial phase, with companies like Neuralink and Synchron leading the way [3] - Neuralink aims to implant 1,000 brain chips by 2026, while Synchron's Stentrode device has shown promising results in clinical trials [57][62] - In China, companies like Borui Kang and Tsinghua University are also making progress in invasive BCI clinical trials [65] 5. Investment Recommendations and Related Companies - Non-invasive BCI has already achieved commercial success, while invasive BCI is still in the clinical validation stage [4] - Companies with leading BCI technology or investments in BCI, such as Yanshan Technology, Chengyitong, and Sanbo Brain, are recommended for investment [69] - The BCI industry chain is still in its early stages, with self-developed BCI chips and algorithms being the core technological barriers [49] 6. BCI Industry Chain - The BCI industry chain includes upstream components like EEG acquisition devices and BCI chips, midstream product providers, and downstream applications in healthcare, education, and entertainment [49] - The industry is still in its infancy, with most companies offering complete solutions rather than specialized components [69]

证券研究报告·公司点评报告·半导体 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 受益于 AI、高性能计算领域快速发展，公司 CMP 装备、减薄装备将得 到更广泛应用：随着 AI 和高性能计算的快速发展，芯片性能和功耗的 要求不断提高，通过内部互联技术实现多个模块芯片与底层基础芯片封 装的 Chiplet 和基于 2.5D/3D 封装技术将 DRAMDie 垂直堆叠的高带宽 存储器（HBM）需求高增。公司主打产品 CMP 装备、减薄装备均是芯 片堆叠技术、先进封装技术的关键核心装备，将获得更加广泛的应用。 股价走势 基础数据 2024-08-17 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-----------------------------|-------|-------|-------|-------| | 现金流量表（百万元） | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 202 ...

亿纬锂能（300014） 马来西亚工厂获北美储能订单，海外市场拓 展超预期 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |------------------------------|--------|-------|--------|-------|-------| | 盈利预测与估值 [Table_EPS] | 2022A | 2023A | 2024E | 2025E | 2026E | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 36304 | 48784 | 47801 | 60491 | 74718 | | 同比（ % ） | 114.82 | 34.38 | (2.01) | 26.55 | 23.52 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 3509 | 4050 | 4131 | 5503 | 7506 | | 同比（ % ） | 20.76 | 15.42 | 2.01 | 33.21 | 36.40 | | EPS- 最新摊薄（元 / 股） | 1.72 | 1.98 | 2.02 | 2.69 | 3.67 | | P/E （现价 & 最新摊薄） | 28.82 | 24. ...

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the insurance industry [1] Core Views - The decline in monthly premium income for life insurance companies narrowed slightly in November, with attention on the performance of insurers' "opening red" campaigns [1] - Property insurance premium growth slowed in November, with both auto and non-auto insurance segments experiencing a deceleration [2] - Health insurance premiums saw a significant monthly increase, driven by a low base effect from the previous year [13] - The insurance sector is seen as having both offensive and defensive characteristics, with low valuations and low holdings, making it attractive [14] Life Insurance Segment - From January to November 2024, life insurance premiums reached 4048.1 billion yuan, up 14.0% YoY, with scale premiums at 4608.1 billion yuan, up 11.9% YoY [1] - In November, life insurance premiums totaled 158.6 billion yuan, down 1.6% YoY, but the decline narrowed by 0.3 percentage points compared to October [1] - Universal life insurance premiums (mainly from policyholder investment contributions) fell 2% YoY from January to November, while unit-linked insurance premiums rose 25% YoY [1] - Insurers are focusing on promoting dividend insurance products, which are expected to perform better than expected due to strong market savings demand [1] Property Insurance Segment - From January to November 2024, property insurance premiums reached 1555.3 billion yuan, up 6.8% YoY [2] - In November, property insurance premiums totaled 122.0 billion yuan, up 7.8% YoY, but the growth rate slowed by 12.9 percentage points compared to October [2] - Auto insurance premiums grew 5.2% YoY from January to November, with November premiums up 8.3% YoY, though the growth rate slowed by 10.3 percentage points compared to October [2] - Non-auto insurance premiums grew 8.7% YoY from January to November, with November premiums up 6.8% YoY, a significant slowdown compared to October [2] Health Insurance Segment - From January to November 2024, health insurance premiums grew 8.5% YoY, with November premiums up 9.0% YoY, a 2.2 percentage point increase from October [13] - The proportion of health insurance premiums reached 23% at the end of November, up 0.2 percentage points from October [13] Market and Valuation - The insurance sector's valuation is at historically low levels, with a P/EV range of 0.60-0.93x for 2024E, making it an attractive investment [14] - The 10-year government bond yield has slightly rebounded to around 1.74%, which could alleviate pressure on insurers' fixed-income investment yields [14] Key Companies Performance - China Life Insurance: Cumulative premiums from January to November reached 644.3 billion yuan, up 4.8% YoY, with a market share of 16.9% [25] - Ping An Life Insurance: Cumulative premiums from January to November reached 472.1 billion yuan, up 8.8% YoY, with a market share of 12.4% [25] - PICC Property & Casualty: Cumulative premiums from January to November reached 496.8 billion yuan, up 5.1% YoY, with a market share of 31.9% [27] - Ping An Property & Casualty: Cumulative premiums from January to November reached 292.3 billion yuan, up 6.8% YoY, with a market share of 18.8% [27]

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [14][15] Core Views - The company is advancing its overseas production capacity, with overseas growth expected to take over domestic growth by 2026 [3] - The company plans to issue H-shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to further its global strategy and enhance competitiveness [5] - The company is increasing its dividend payout ratio, with a planned distribution of 15% of the first three quarters' net profit, amounting to 5.4 billion yuan, reflecting a focus on shareholder returns [6] - The company's overseas expansion is progressing smoothly, with significant capacity in Europe (Germany 14GWh, Hungary 100GWh, Spain 50GWh) and partnerships in the US (Ford 20GWh) [3] - The company's valuation is low, with a 2024 EV/EBITDA of 14x, compared to LG Energy Solution's 26x, making it a rare global player in the new energy sector [14] Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue is projected to grow from 400.917 billion yuan in 2023 to 549.370 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 11.1% [2] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to increase from 44.121 billion yuan in 2023 to 80.084 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 22.1% [2] - EPS is forecasted to rise from 10.02 yuan in 2023 to 18.19 yuan in 2026 [2] - P/E ratio is expected to decrease from 26.07x in 2023 to 14.36x in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics [2] Overseas Expansion and Market Share - The company's market share in Europe is expected to increase to 40-50% with new capacity in Germany, Hungary, and Spain [3] - The US market is expected to see further breakthroughs post the IRA bill, with partnerships with Tesla and General Motors progressing [3] - The company's overseas capacity is expected to drive growth, with significant investments in Hungary (100GWh) and Spain (50GWh) [14] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute 15% of its net profit from the first three quarters, amounting to 5.4 billion yuan, with a cash dividend of 12.3 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting a dividend yield of 0.45% [6] Profitability and Growth - The company's gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 28% from 2024 to 2026 [19] - Net profit margin is projected to increase from 11.01% in 2023 to 14.58% in 2026 [19] - The company's ROE is expected to remain strong, ranging from 20.18% to 20.84% from 2024 to 2026 [10] Industry Outlook - The global energy storage market is expected to grow by 50% in 2025, driving demand for the company's products [25] - The company's battery shipments are expected to increase from 490GWh in 2024 to 650GWh+ in 2025, representing a 33% year-on-year growth [25] - The company's profitability is expected to remain stable, with a profit of 0.1 yuan/wh, supported by economies of scale and product structure optimization [25]

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 2024-12-25 | --- | --- | |---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | 宏观点评 20241227 | | | 消费在经济中的占比预计提高 3.4 个点 | 2024 年 12 月 27 日 | | ——"五经普"中的结构变化系列（一） | 证券分析师 芦哲 | | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 事件 ◼ 12 月 26 日，国家统计局发布第五次经济普查结果。统计局利用"五经 | 执业证书： S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn | | 普"资料对 2023 年 GDP 进行了修订，修订后的 2023 年 GDP 为 129.4 ...