证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观点评 宏观点评 20251208 从两次会议比较看明年政策重点——学习12 月政治局会议精神 2025 年 12 月 08 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 占烁 执业证书：S0600524120005 zhansh@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《预计 11 月社融增速延续回落，出口 增速由负转正》 2025-12-07 《12 月降息"已定"，如何看待明年美 联储货币政策节奏？》 2025-12-07 东吴证券研究所 1 / 5 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 中共中央政治局 12 月 8 日召开会议，分析研究 2026 年经济工作。 ◼ 我们对去年和今年 12 月政治局会议进行比较，看年度部署有何变化， 据此来对明年宏观经济政策做一个展望。 ◼ 1、从"防范化解重点领域风险和外部冲击"到"更好统筹国内经济工 作和国际经贸斗争"，对形势有了更主动的把握和应对。去年用词是"防 范化解外部冲击"，带有一定的防御色彩，更多关注的是外部环境变差 ...

Group 1: M&A Activity Overview - From November 3 to December 7, 2025, there were a total of 392 M&A events involving listed companies, with 85 classified as significant M&A transactions[10] - Out of the total M&A events, 82 were completed, and 6 were significant M&A transactions that reached completion[10] Group 2: Policy Updates - On December 5, 2025, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released a draft regulation aimed at standardizing M&A activities and supporting industrial integration and corporate transformation[8] - The Central Financial Office emphasized the role of large state-owned financial institutions in supporting the real economy and maintaining financial stability[8] Group 3: Major M&A Transactions - Notable transactions include a bid by Top Group for 100% of Wuhu Changpeng, valued at CNY 33,000, and a bid by Electric Power Investment for 100% of Electric Power Nuclear Holdings, valued at CNY 5,539,371.08[14] - The total value of significant M&A transactions involving central state-owned enterprises reached CNY 11,596,655.7 for the acquisition of 100% of Zhongke Shuguang[16] Group 4: M&A Failures - There were 16 failed M&A attempts during the reporting period, including a bid by Di'ao Microelectronics for 100% of Rongpai Semiconductor, which was unsuccessful[19] - Other notable failures included attempts by Jiemite and Huakang Co. for various stakes in their respective targets, with total values of CNY 109,800 and CNY 358,061.77 respectively[20]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the construction materials industry [1]. Core Insights - The construction materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 1.55%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices, which increased by 1.28% and 0.72%, respectively, resulting in excess returns of 0.27% and 0.82% [4]. - Cement prices have increased to 354.7 CNY/ton, up by 4.5 CNY/ton from the previous week, but down by 70.3 CNY/ton compared to the same period last year [4][14]. - The average cement inventory level is at 66.4%, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points from the previous week, while the average cement shipment rate is 44.6%, down by 0.8 percentage points week-on-week [21]. - The report highlights that infrastructure construction is expected to be a key driver for economic stability in the short term, with recommendations to focus on companies in the infrastructure supply chain and home improvement sectors [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Bulk Construction Materials Fundamentals and High-Frequency Data - **Cement**: The national average cement price is 354.7 CNY/ton, with significant regional price increases noted in the Yangtze River Delta and Southwest regions [4][14]. The average shipment rate has decreased to 44.6% [21]. - **Glass**: The average price of float glass is reported at 1163.9 CNY/ton, reflecting a weekly increase of 16.0 CNY/ton but a year-on-year decrease of 254.7 CNY/ton [48]. The inventory level for float glass is 5675 million weight boxes, down by 83 million from the previous week [50]. - **Fiberglass**: The market remains stable with no significant price changes, and the focus is on the demand recovery in the downstream sectors [4]. 2. Industry Dynamics Tracking - The report notes that the construction materials sector is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in the southern regions, while northern regions face challenges due to seasonal weather impacts [4]. 3. Weekly Market Review and Sector Valuation Table - The construction materials sector has shown resilience with a positive performance compared to broader market indices, indicating potential investment opportunities [4]. 4. Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies involved in infrastructure, home improvement, and export-oriented sectors, including Conch Cement, Oriental Yuhong, and China Communications Construction [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the gas industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing price fluctuations in the gas market, with a notable increase in US gas prices due to sustained cold weather and inventory withdrawals, while European gas prices are declining [4][9] - It emphasizes the supply-demand dynamics, indicating a decrease in US gas storage and a drop in European gas supply, alongside a slight increase in domestic gas consumption in China [15][19] - The report discusses the progress of price adjustments in the gas sector, with a significant number of cities implementing residential price adjustments, leading to improved profitability for city gas companies [31] Price Tracking - As of December 5, 2025, US HH gas prices increased by 13.2% week-on-week, while European TTF prices decreased by 6.2% [9][10] - The report notes that the average gas consumption in Europe for the first eight months of 2025 was 288.4 billion cubic meters, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic gas prices in China saw a week-on-week decrease of 1.4%, with a total apparent consumption of 354.1 billion cubic meters from January to October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [19][23] Supply and Demand Analysis - The report forecasts continued cold weather leading to a 13.2% increase in US gas prices, with storage levels dropping to 39,230 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 120 billion cubic feet week-on-week [14] - European gas supply decreased by 9.9% week-on-week, with a notable drop in supply from inventory [15] - China's gas production increased by 6.5% year-on-year to 217.1 billion cubic meters, while imports decreased by 6.3% [23][24] Price Adjustment Progress - The report indicates that 67% of cities have implemented residential price adjustments, with an average increase of 0.22 yuan per cubic meter [31] - The report suggests that there is still a 10% room for price adjustment in city gas companies, indicating ongoing efforts to align pricing mechanisms [31] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Xinao Energy, China Resources Gas, and Kunlun Energy, highlighting their attractive dividend yields [46][47] - It suggests focusing on companies with quality long-term contracts and cost advantages, such as Jiufeng Energy and Xinao Holdings [46][47] - The report also emphasizes the importance of energy independence and suggests monitoring companies with gas production capabilities [47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - Credo's revenue exceeded expectations, with a significant year-on-year increase of 272% to reach $268 million in FY26Q2, driven by the explosive demand for interconnect solutions in AI clusters [2] - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI for at least $3.25 billion marks a pivotal moment for CPO technology, transitioning from proof of concept to large-scale commercialization [4] - The industry is witnessing a shift towards CPO technology as major players like TSMC, NVIDIA, and AMD accelerate their investments and development efforts [8] Summary by Sections Credo's Performance - Credo's FY26Q2 revenue reached $268 million, a 272% increase year-on-year and a 20% increase quarter-on-quarter, significantly surpassing guidance [2] - The AEC segment is the fastest-growing business, with contributions from major cloud providers increasing [2] - The ZeroFlap series AEC is becoming the standard for interconnects within 7 meters, transitioning from 100G to 200G [2][3] Marvell's Acquisition - Marvell's acquisition of Celestial AI is a strategic move to enhance its position in the optical interconnect market, with the potential for 16Tbps bandwidth and improved energy efficiency [4] - This acquisition is expected to play a crucial role in breaking through bandwidth and memory barriers in data centers [4] Industry Trends - The CPO technology is being recognized as the next-generation optical foundation for AI data centers, with significant investments from leading semiconductor companies [8] - The transition from "pluggable" to "co-packaged" optical interconnects is seen as a definitive path to overcoming physical limits of Moore's Law [8]

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint of the macro strategy report emphasizes that new consumption is expected to gradually take over traditional consumption as the main driver of China's commodity consumption, supported by a policy document issued by six ministries aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods [13][14] - The report highlights that the new consumption model focuses on emotional value and technological content, with short video platforms and experiential economies reshaping online and offline consumption scenarios [13][14] Fixed Income Strategy - The 2026 convertible bond strategy indicates that the main theme will revolve around the dual drivers of carbon neutrality and AI, with a focus on the entire "source-network-load-storage" chain, suggesting that the market will benefit from the expansion of mid and small-cap stocks [16] - The report anticipates that the supply-demand structure of convertible bonds will improve, with a notable increase in the availability of mainline targets, and emphasizes the importance of adapting traditional convertible bond allocation frameworks for success in 2026 [16] Industry Research - The research on the U.S. electricity and AI energy storage sector indicates that the demand for power supply and AI energy storage is expected to surge, driven by the increasing electricity consumption of AI data centers, with a projected compound annual growth rate over the next 3-5 years [21][22] - The report suggests that the integration of green electricity and storage solutions will be a primary focus, with significant growth potential in the market for energy storage systems, particularly benefiting companies like CATL and Sungrow [21][22] - The liquid cooling industry report states that the demand for liquid cooling solutions is expected to rise sharply due to the increasing power density of chips, with a projected market size of 353 billion yuan for ASIC liquid cooling systems and 697 billion yuan for NVIDIA liquid cooling systems by 2026 [23][24] Company Recommendations - Satellite Chemical (002648) is highlighted for its potential growth driven by high-end new materials, despite short-term impacts from maintenance activities, with adjusted profit forecasts for 2025-2027 indicating net profits of 55.5 billion, 69.7 billion, and 86.2 billion yuan respectively [7][24] - Changbai Mountain (603099) is recognized for its unique position in the tourism sector, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 1.6 billion, 1.9 billion, and 2.3 billion yuan, reflecting its growth potential in the ice and snow tourism market [8][9] - Hangyang Co., Ltd. (002430) is noted for its transition from equipment manufacturing to gas supply, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 at 11.57 billion, 12.94 billion, and 14.84 billion yuan, supported by its diverse business growth and favorable gas pricing [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the power equipment industry [1] Core Insights - The energy storage lithium battery sector is experiencing strong demand even in the off-season, with significant growth expected in 2025. The report highlights advancements in humanoid robotics and artificial intelligence-driven automation (AIDC) as key growth areas [1][3] Industry Trends - The electric equipment sector saw a slight increase of 0.22%, underperforming compared to the broader market. Wind power rose by 3.48%, while solar energy saw a decline of 1.61% [3] - The humanoid robot sector is gaining momentum, with significant developments such as the establishment of a national training base for humanoid robots in Beijing and the launch of emotional companion robots by companies like UBTECH [3] - In energy storage, there is a push for virtual power plant models in photovoltaic projects, and integrated "source-grid-load-storage" systems are being promoted in pilot areas [3] Market Data - In November, the wholesale sales of new energy vehicles in China reached 1.72 million units, a year-on-year increase of 20% [3] - The average price of cobalt increased by 2.6% to 413,500 CNY per ton, while lithium carbonate prices saw a slight decrease of 0.5% [3] - The report notes that the total investment in the power grid is projected to be 23.1 billion CNY, with the approval of a high-voltage AC project expected to commence next year [3] Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the expected 60%+ growth in large-scale energy storage demand in China, driven by new pricing policies and robust market conditions. It forecasts a global energy storage installation growth of 50-60% in the coming year [3] - The report recommends several companies for investment, including CATL, Sungrow Power, and BYD, highlighting their strong market positions and growth potential [6]

Economic Indicators - As of December 7, 2025, the ECI supply index is at 49.93%, down 0.02 percentage points from last week, while the demand index is at 49.87%, up 0.01 percentage points[6] - The ECI investment index remains stable at 49.87%, and the consumption index is at 49.66%, up 0.01 percentage points[9] - The ECI export index is at 50.24%, unchanged from last week, indicating stable export performance[9] Financing and Monetary Policy - The ELI index is at -0.51%, up 0.10 percentage points from last week, indicating a slight improvement in liquidity[12] - New RMB loans in November are expected to be between 450 billion to 500 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion to 130 billion[15] - The total social financing scale in November is projected to be around 2.2 trillion, down from 2.33 trillion year-on-year, with a social financing growth rate expected to drop to 8.4%[15] Industrial Production and Consumption - The operating rate for full steel tires is 63.50%, up 0.17 percentage points, while the half steel tire rate is 70.92%, up 1.73 percentage points[17] - The average daily sales of passenger cars in the last week of November were 125,617 units, down 8,925 units year-on-year, with total retail sales for November at 2.263 million units, a 7% decline year-on-year[24] Export Performance - The total cargo throughput at monitored ports reached 28.6271 million tons in the last week of November, an increase of 8.43% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in export activity[35] - The South Korean export growth rate for November is recorded at 8.40%, up 4.80 percentage points from October[40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - In December, the bond market adjusted. The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The stock and bond markets have been weak, not showing a complete "stock - bond seesaw" effect, especially for ultra - long bonds with a significant interest rate increase. Due to factors like the "anti - involution" policy and the fund fee rate new regulation draft, institutions may sell in advance to avoid fluctuations. In the context of the "asset shortage," it is recommended to gradually increase bond allocation when the 10 - year Treasury active bond yield reaches 1.85%, but shorten the duration [1][14]. - Overseas, the market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased, the manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 One - Week View - **Domestic Bond Market**: The 10 - year Treasury active bond yield decreased by 0.05bp to 1.8285% from last Friday. The yield fluctuated throughout the week due to various factors such as market expectations of the central bank's bond - buying volume, policy expectations, and news from the Financial Times [1][10]. - **Overseas Market**: The market is pricing in the Fed's interest rate cut. The Bank of Japan's possible interest rate hike on December 19 is a focus. The US EIA Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 457,000 barrels from the week of November 21 to November 28. The manufacturing PMI continued to contract, and the Fed is focused on interest rate cut expectations and the change of the chairman. The probability of a 25bp interest rate cut in December 2025 is 86.20%, and the probability of another cut in January 2026 has decreased [15][24]. 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Summary - **Liquidity Tracking**: In the open - market operations from December 1 to December 5, 2025, the net investment was - 84.8 billion yuan. The money market interest rates showed some changes, with some rates decreasing and others increasing slightly [30][31]. - **Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking**: Steel prices showed mixed changes, and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices also fluctuated. The prices of commodities such as coal, oil, and vegetables also changed to varying degrees [49]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: In the primary market, 56 local bonds were issued with a total amount of 108.717 billion yuan, including 58.277 billion yuan of refinancing bonds, 39.049 billion yuan of new special bonds, and 11.392 billion yuan of new general bonds. The net financing amount was 60.493 billion yuan, mainly invested in comprehensive, strategic development, and shantytown renovation projects [75]. - **Secondary Market Overview**: The stock of local bonds was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with the most active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong. The top three active trading maturities were 30Y, 20Y, and 10Y. The local bond yields generally increased [91][93]. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review - **Primary Market Issuance Overview**: A total of 291 credit bonds were issued in the primary market, with a total issuance of 232.914 billion yuan, a total repayment of 174.89 billion yuan, and a net financing of 58.024 billion yuan, a decrease of 31.825 billion yuan from last week. Among them, the net financing of urban investment bonds was - 14.491 billion yuan, and that of industrial bonds was 72.515 billion yuan [98][99]. - **Issuance Interest Rate**: The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types showed different changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [109]. - **Secondary Market Transaction Overview**: The total turnover of credit bonds was 531.676 billion yuan. The trading volume of each bond type varied, with medium - term notes having the largest trading volume [110]. - **Yield to Maturity**: The yields to maturity of various bonds, including national development bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds, generally increased [110][111][112]. - **Credit Spread**: The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, while the credit spreads of corporate bonds also showed a general divergent trend, and the credit spreads of urban investment bonds generally narrowed [114][119][122]. - **Rating Spread**: The rating spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a divergent trend, and the rating spreads of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [125][127][129]. - **Trading Activity**: The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [133][134]. - **Subject Rating Change**: There were no bonds with rating or outlook upgrades or downgrades this week [135][136]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The expansion of service consumption policies is aimed at increasing the supply of quality services, with a notable rise in per capita service consumption expenditure from 46.1% in 2015 to 46.8% in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][9] - Capital operations in the cultural tourism sector are increasing, with significant asset securitization activities optimizing service supply [4][10] - The report highlights several companies in the cultural tourism sector that are expected to benefit from capacity expansion and structural changes, including Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Lijiang Co., West Region Tourism, Tianfu Culture Tourism, Jiuhua Tourism, and Huangshan Tourism [4][11] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The report discusses the recent trends in the retail and service sectors, noting a decline in the Shenyuan retail index by 0.83% and a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.37% during the week of December 1 to December 5 [14][18] - Year-to-date performance shows the Shenyuan retail index up by 3.18%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has increased by 16.44% [14][18] Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating their market capitalization and projected earnings for 2024, 2025, and 2026, with several companies rated as "Accumulate" [12][15][21] - Notable companies include Songcheng Performance, with a market cap of 209 billion and a projected net profit of 11.37 billion for 2024, and Changbai Mountain, with a market cap of 133 billion and a projected net profit of 1.58 billion for 2025 [12][21]