Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "strong, change, and new" in the 2026 strategy for the trading industry, focusing on both external and internal demand, particularly through consumer exports and resource trading [1][3] Group 1: Industry Review and Trends - In 2025, the trading industry benefited from national subsidies, leading to a recovery in consumer demand, particularly in discretionary categories, with growth rates of 18-21% for various consumer goods [3][14] - The "anti-involution" trend has led to a recovery in production profits, with industrial profits showing over 20% year-on-year growth in August and September [3][23] - The rise of new consumption patterns, the impact of trade wars on consumer exports, and the significant increase in gold prices present unique opportunities for the industry [3][24][26] Group 2: Future Directions for the Trading Industry - Consumer exports and trade security are expected to play a crucial role in China's economy, with a focus on building "Chinese brands" globally [3][28] - The gold and jewelry retail sector is anticipated to remain a key area of focus in 2026, despite high gold prices, as consumer habits typically lag behind price changes [3][29] - The bulk trading sector is at a turning point, with potential for the emergence of large Chinese trading groups similar to Japan's trading houses [3][30] - Retail and tourism sectors are expected to undergo significant changes and reforms, providing marginal catalysts for growth [3][31] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - Strong investment opportunities include companies involved in consumer exports such as Xiaoshangcheng, Anker Innovations, and Luguan Technology, as well as gold retail brands like Luk Fook Holdings and Chow Tai Fook [3][33] - Companies undergoing changes in trading cycles and brand development, such as Xiamen Xiangyu and Yonghui Superstores, are also recommended [3][34] - New consumption trends represented by brands like Laopu Gold and Pop Mart are highlighted as potential growth areas [3][35] - Companies with low valuations, including Huazhu Group and Miniso, are suggested for consideration [3][36] Group 4: Cross-Border E-commerce Growth - The cross-border e-commerce sector is experiencing high growth, with exports reaching 2.6 trillion yuan in 2024, a 10.8% increase year-on-year [42] - The sector's growth is driven by China's supply chain advantages and increasing e-commerce penetration in overseas markets [42][45] - Future growth in cross-border e-commerce is expected to be fueled by the branding of supply chains and the continued rise of overseas e-commerce platforms [42][45] Group 5: Bulk Supply Chain Recovery - The bulk supply chain industry is fragmented, with leading companies holding less than 2% market share, indicating significant growth potential [54] - The market concentration in the bulk supply chain sector is increasing, with leading companies showing continuous growth [54][58] - As domestic manufacturing becomes more specialized, the advantages of leading supply chain companies in terms of scale and efficiency are expected to enhance their market share [58]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, exceeding the guidance upper limit by 2% to 6% [7] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q3 was 1.47 billion yuan, up 15.4% year-on-year, driven by an increase in gross margin due to asset-light strategies [7] - The company expects RevPAR to turn positive in Q4, with revenue growth guidance of 2% to 6% [7] - The company has adjusted its profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 4.62 billion, 4.90 billion, and 5.40 billion yuan respectively [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 21.882 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 57.86% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 is expected to be 4.085 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 324.33% [1] - The latest diluted EPS for 2023 is forecasted at 1.32 yuan per share, with a P/E ratio of 23.54 [1] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and net profit over the next few years, with 2024 revenue expected to reach 23.891 billion yuan [1][8]

Market Overview - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market was 1.87 trillion CNY, a decrease of over 178.8 billion CNY compared to the previous week[8] - The Shanghai Composite Index experienced a weekly decline of 3.0%[12] Market Style Performance - Large-cap value stocks showed relative resilience, with a weekly decline of only 1.73%[12] - Small-cap growth stocks faced a more significant decline of 5.54%[12] Participant Performance - The active capital holding index led the decline with a drop of 7.0%[21] - The national team index decreased by 2.81%, while the social security heavy index fell by 4.0%[21] Market Sentiment - The margin trading balance increased to 2.5 trillion CNY before retracting[25] - The number of stocks hitting the daily limit up was 100, while 13 stocks hit the limit down during the week[25] Sector Performance - The report highlights strong sectors such as AI and energy security, while sectors like chemicals and steel are expected to see improved fundamentals[44] - The focus for 2026 will be on technology and security, as well as reform and growth strategies[44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for future performance [2][10]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of HKD 1.215 billion in Q1-Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 30%. The gross profit reached HKD 551 million, up 28% year-on-year, driven by efficient operations of new projects like the Xi'an Xianyang International Airport T5 terminal parking lot and improved performance of existing projects [2]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for Q1-Q3 2025 was HKD 488 million, reflecting a 22% increase year-on-year, showcasing a significant improvement in overall profitability and a solid foundation for long-term performance [2]. - The company is accelerating its investment in the humanoid robotics sector, having established multiple industry funds that have invested in key enterprises across the robotics value chain. This includes the establishment of the "Shou Cheng Robot Advanced Materials Industry Co., Ltd." to invest in critical materials for robotics [3][4]. - The company has launched the first nationwide operational robotics technology experience store, enhancing its market presence and consumer engagement in the robotics sector [3]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue projections for 2025-2027 are HKD 1.559 billion, HKD 1.959 billion, and HKD 2.319 billion, respectively, with corresponding net profits of HKD 586 million, HKD 775 million, and HKD 934 million [10]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 45.35%, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.57 percentage points, indicating stable profitability [3]. - The debt-to-capital ratio decreased to 10.9% in Q1-Q3 2025, down 5 percentage points from the end of 2024, reflecting improved financial stability [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The current port coal prices are stable, with the spot price for thermal coal at 834 RMB/ton as of November 21, 2025, showing no change from the previous week [1] - Supply side: The average daily inflow to the four ports in the Bohai Rim region is 2.0463 million tons, an increase of 69,300 tons or 3.50% from the previous week [1] - Demand side: The average daily outflow from the same ports is 1.78 million tons, a decrease of 94,400 tons or 5.04% from the previous week, indicating limited demand release [1] - The total inventory at the Bohai Rim ports has increased to 25.933 million tons, up by 1.64 million tons or 6.74% from the previous week [1] - The report suggests that coal prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend due to the heating season in northern regions and increasing electricity consumption in southern regions [1] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,834.89 points, down 3.45% from the previous week, while the coal sector index fell by 7.12% [10] - The total transaction amount for the coal sector was 82.296 billion RMB, an increase of 2.08% from the previous week [10] 2. Domestic Coal Prices - Domestic thermal coal prices have shown slight increases, with specific prices reported as follows: - Datong South Suburb 5500 kcal thermal coal at 700 RMB/ton, up 15 RMB/ton [16] - Inner Mongolia Chifeng 4000 kcal thermal coal at 430 RMB/ton, unchanged [16] - Yanzhou 6000 kcal thermal coal at 1,130 RMB/ton, up 10 RMB/ton [16] - The Bohai Rim thermal coal price index remains stable at 698 RMB/ton [18] 3. Inventory and Shipping - The average daily inflow of coal to the Bohai Rim ports increased, while the outflow decreased, indicating a buildup in inventory [26][30] - The average daily number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim ports decreased to 123, down 10% from the previous week [30] - The average shipping cost on domestic routes fell to 47.27 RMB/ton, a decrease of 8.25% [33] 4. Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring insurance capital inflows and suggests focusing on resource stocks, particularly recommending companies like Haohua Energy and Guanghui Energy as elastic targets [35]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the retail industry [1]. Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has entered the final 30-day sprint phase for its full closure operation, which began on November 18. The port optimization and "second-line" regulatory facility construction are nearing completion, with the expectation of achieving a regulatory framework of "first-line opening, second-line management, and island-wide freedom" [4][9]. - The policy framework post-closure focuses on "zero tariffs, low tax rates, and simplified tax systems." Approximately 6,600 products will benefit from zero tariffs, covering most production equipment and raw materials, allowing companies to save about 20% on import tax costs. Additionally, encouraged industries will enjoy a 15% corporate income tax rate, significantly reducing operational costs [10]. - The adjustment of the duty-free shopping policy for departing island travelers was implemented on November 11, which has led to a 28.52% year-on-year increase in duty-free sales amounting to 1.325 billion yuan as of November 17 [10]. Summary by Sections Industry Viewpoint - The report highlights the operational upgrade of port management as a critical step towards establishing a high-level free trade port system, facilitating the free flow of various elements within Hainan [9]. Market Review - For the week of November 17 to November 21, the retail index decreased by 7.24%, while the overall market indices also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 3.90% [12]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for various companies, indicating that companies like China Duty Free Group, Wangfujing, and Hainan Airport are expected to benefit from the duty-free shopping policy adjustments [11][19].

证券研究报告 中长期配置价值明确，攻守之道双轨并行 ——2026年北交所年度投资策略 证券分析师：朱洁羽 执业证书编号：S0600520090004 联系邮箱：zhujieyu@dwzq.com.cn 二零二五年十一月二十三日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 核心要点 ➢ 中长期配置价值明确，机构参与度逐步提升： 1）北交所市场稳步扩容，流动性改善明显，估值仍有上行空间：①截至2025年11月14日，北交所共282家上市公司，较25年初新增19家，平均市值31.94亿元，北交所市场持续扩容。②在"深 改19条"政策+30%涨跌幅限制+相关基金产品推出引入较多增量资金影响下，北交所流动性显著改善，截至25年11月14日，25年北证A股个股日均成交额达1.08亿元，较24年0.5亿元翻倍增长， 北证50日均换手率5.66%，远高于其他板块。③截至2025年11月14日，北证50的PETTM为47倍，处于2022年以来的历史最高水平，但仍远低于科创50的76倍水平，北交所估值仍有上行空间。 2）新股发行节奏稳步提升，待上市企业储备充足，盈利能力持续向好：①新股发行节奏提升，北交所优质标的持续稳定增长。截至20 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for companies in the engineering machinery and forklift sectors, emphasizing undervalued growth potential [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the strong performance of NVIDIA in FY26Q3, with revenue reaching $57.01 billion, a year-on-year increase of 62.5%, and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 22.0%, indicating robust demand in the AI equipment sector [2][3]. - The engineering machinery sector is expected to see a recovery in demand, with domestic excavator sales projected to grow at an annual rate of over 30% from 2025 to 2028, despite current funding challenges affecting sales conversion [4]. - The forklift industry shows a positive trend with October sales reaching 114,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 16%, driven by low domestic demand baselines and recovering overseas demand [4]. Summary by Sections Recommended Companies - The report recommends a focus on companies such as Northern Huachuang, Sany Heavy Industry, and others in the engineering machinery and AI equipment sectors [1][14]. AI Equipment - NVIDIA's strategic partnerships with OpenAI and other tech giants are expected to enhance AI infrastructure, with significant revenue growth anticipated in the upcoming quarters [3]. - Recommendations for AI equipment include Dazhu CNC for PCB drilling equipment and Hongsheng for liquid cooling solutions [4]. Engineering Machinery - October data shows a significant improvement in domestic sales of various machinery types, with excavator sales expected to peak at 250,000 units by 2028 [4]. - Key companies recommended in this sector include Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, and others [4]. Forklift Industry - The forklift sector is experiencing steady growth, with a notable increase in both domestic and export sales, indicating a recovery in demand [4]. - Recommended companies include Hangcha Group and Anhui Heli [4]. Lithium Battery Equipment - The report anticipates a 40% growth in energy storage demand from 2025 to 2026, driven by the increasing penetration of new energy vehicles and AI data centers [4]. - Key recommendations include suppliers like Xian Dao Intelligent and Hangke Technology [4]. General Market Trends - The overall machinery industry is expected to benefit from a recovery in fixed asset investment and a rebound in demand across various sectors, including construction and logistics [4].

随着北美大厂 AI 资本开支的步伐变的更为激进、而 AI 对经济及企业盈 利的拉动效应尚未充分展现，市场对于资本开支向 EPS 传导的评估更为 审慎、开始关注"AI 泡沫"风险。在此基础上，过去两年"科技大厂算力 军备竞赛、资本开支集中上修"即可顺利带动算力行情的模式将有所变化， 未来 AI 叙事的持续演绎，除了算力本身的旺盛需求外，可能还需要看到 AI 价值创造更为明确的信号。 ◼ 一是，全球流动性紧缩之下，A 股难以"独善其身" 近期多重因素轮番作用，全球流动性呈现紧缩态势。此前阶段，紧缩格局 主要受美国联邦政府停摆影响，TGA 账户"只进不出"大量吸收市场流动 性，对美国本土冲击更为直接，亦推动美股率先见顶回落。随着美政府重 新开门，这一流动性压力已明显缓和，当前流动性趋紧的核心驱动在于 12 月美联储大概率不降息： 基于多重原因，流动性收紧压力带动近期全球资产普遍回调，A 股市场难 以"独善其身"。 ◼ 二是，海外"AI 泡沫"焦虑、科技板块下跌，波及 A 股 证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20251123 如何看待近期市场的调整 2025 年 11 月 23 日 [Table_Summ ...

固收点评 20251122 绿色债券周度数据跟踪 （20251117-20251121） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 一级市场发行情况： 本周（20251117-20251121）银行间市场及交易所市场共新发行绿色债券 26 只，合计发行规模约 246.19 亿元，较上周减少 444.89 亿元。发行年 限多为 3 年；发行人性质为央企子公司、地方国有企业、中外合资企业、 中小微企业、大型民企；主体评级多为 AAA、AA+级；发行人地域为云 南省、广东省、陕西省、北京市、广西壮族自治区、山东省、浙江省、 天津市、江苏省、上海市；发行债券种类为一般公司债、中期票据、私 募公司债、商业银行普通债、超短期融资券、短期融资券、交易商协会 ABN、企业 ABS、一般公司债、信贷 ABS。 证券研究报告·固定收益·固收点评 ◼ 二级市场成交情况： 本周（20251117-20251121）绿色债券周成交额合计 859 亿元，较上周增 加 243 亿元。分债券种类来看，成交量前三为金融机构债、非金公司信 用债和利率债，分别为 384 亿元、340 亿元和 102 亿元；分发行期限来 看 ...