证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·燃气Ⅱ 燃气Ⅱ行业跟踪周报 气温偏高美国气价继续回落，库存提取欧洲 气价微增，25M11 国内用气需求边际改善 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [投资要点 Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 22 日 证券分析师 袁理 执业证书：S0600511080001 021-60199782 yuanl@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 谷玥 执业证书：S0600524090002 guy@dwzq.com.cn 行业走势 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 23% 2024/12/23 2025/4/22 2025/8/20 2025/12/18 燃气Ⅱ 沪深300 《天气转暖美国气价回落、库存提取 欧洲气价上行》 2025-12-15 相关研究 《天然气行业 2026 年年度策略：供给 宽松促需求放量，降本+顺价盈利能力 修复；关注双综业务潜力》 2025-12-12 东吴证券研究所 1 / 14 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 ◼ 价格跟踪：气温偏高美国气价继续回落，库存提取欧洲气价微增。截至 2025/12 ...

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20251222 AI 产业生态博弈深化 2025 年 12 月 22 日 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 本周 AI 要闻 （信息来源：科创板日报、第一财经、36 氪等） 周度观点 ◼ 全球 AI 产业生态博弈深化，技术落地与资本场景双向赋能 （1）本周全球 AI 产业的核心焦点集中在基础设施生态竞争升级、模型技 术实用化普及、全球应用场景深化与产业资本化协同三大维度。 （3）模型技术层面，AI 模型向 "实用化、低门槛、场景化" 深度演进， 技术普及与产业赋能成效凸显。OpenAI GPT-5.2-Codex 强化长任务处理与 网络安全能力，谷歌 Gemini 3 Flash 以低延迟、低成本实现专业级推理， T5Gemma2 与 FunctionGemma 推动多模态与端侧工具调用普及，字节 Seed1.8 升级通用 Agent 交互能力，Anthropic 开源 Agent Skills 降低企业 落地门槛，Meta 布局多模态生成模型补全产品线。这些技术突破不仅让复 杂推理、多模态交互、端侧部署成为常态，更推动 AI 从开发者工具下 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive sector, particularly highlighting the approval of L3 autonomous driving products by Changan Automobile and BAIC's Arcfox Alpha S [1][2]. Core Insights - The automotive industry is entering a new phase where the benefits of electrification are tapering off, while the focus shifts towards intelligent vehicles and robotics innovation [3]. - Key investment opportunities are identified in AI smart vehicles, with a focus on Robotaxi and Robovan applications, as well as C-end vehicle sales [3]. - The report anticipates a significant increase in L3 and L2+ intelligent driving penetration rates by 2025, driven by major players like Tesla, Huawei, and XPeng [51][52]. Industry Performance - The automotive sector showed mixed performance this week, with the motorcycle and other segments performing best, while passenger vehicles saw a decline of 1.4% [2][15]. - The report notes that the automotive sector ranked 21st in A-shares and 20th in Hong Kong stocks this week [7][9]. Key Changes in the Industry - Recent approvals for L3 autonomous driving capabilities for Changan's Deep Blue and BAIC's Arcfox Alpha S mark significant advancements in the industry [2][3]. - The report highlights the procurement of nearly 200 Yutong electric buses by Saudi Arabia's Red Sea Global Group and SIXT, with the first batch already in operation [2][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI smart vehicle investments, particularly in Robotaxi and Robovan sectors, as well as C-end vehicle sales [3]. - Key companies to watch include Tesla, XPeng, and various suppliers in the automotive supply chain, such as Desay SV and Geely [3][62]. Market Valuation - The report indicates that the overall price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the automotive sector remains stable, with commercial passenger vehicles and auto parts seeing an increase in PE [33]. - The report also notes that the global vehicle valuation price-to-sales (PS) ratio is holding steady, with A-share vehicles maintaining stability [41].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company is a leading domestic supplier of electrolyte additives, with a focus on expanding into new areas such as lithium sulfide, maintaining a competitive edge [8][9] - The company's core products, including vinyl carbonate (VC) and fluoroethylene carbonate (FEC), have seen significant market share growth, with VC sales increasing by 70.2% and FEC sales by 166.8% in the first nine months of 2025 [11] - The price of additives has rebounded from a bottom, with current market prices for VC at 178,000 yuan/ton and FEC at 72,000 yuan/ton, indicating a tight supply-demand balance [16] - The company plans to launch a new production line for VC with a capacity of 30,000 tons in the second half of 2026, utilizing advanced short-process technology to enhance efficiency and reduce costs [15] - Profit forecasts have been adjusted, with a projected net profit of 1.063 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.752 billion yuan in 2027, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [22] Financial Summary - Total revenue is expected to grow from 504.90 million yuan in 2024 to 4,108.02 million yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 41.70% [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to improve from a loss of 174.67 million yuan in 2024 to a profit of 1,752.39 million yuan in 2027, indicating a turnaround in profitability [1] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to rise from -1.10 yuan in 2024 to 10.99 yuan in 2027, reflecting the company's recovery trajectory [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Core Views - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 1.46%, ranking in the upper middle among all primary industries. The energy metals sector rose by 5.08%, while the precious metals sector increased by 0.68% [1][14] - Gold prices have broken through the consolidation range, while silver's bullish sentiment has peaked, indicating a potential risk of a sharp short-term correction [1][49][50] Summary by Sections Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.33%, with the non-ferrous metals sector outperforming the index by 1.44 percentage points [14] - The report highlights the performance of various sub-sectors, with energy metals leading the gains [14] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Prices fluctuated with LME copper at $11,882 per ton (up 2.85%) and SHFE copper at ¥93,180 per ton (down 0.96%). Supply remains weak, with a forecasted global copper shortage of 150,000 tons by 2026. Demand is deteriorating as construction projects pause, leading to increased spot market discounts [2][30] - **Aluminum**: LME aluminum rose to $2,945 per ton (up 2.43%), while SHFE aluminum was at ¥22,185 per ton (up 0.07%). Supply conditions are stable, with new capacity coming online, but demand remains cautious due to a downturn in the real estate sector [3][35] - **Zinc**: Prices fell, with LME zinc at $3,073 per ton (down 2.12%) and SHFE zinc at ¥23,065 per ton (down 2.29%). Inventory levels showed mixed trends [41] - **Tin**: Prices increased, with LME tin at $43,227 per ton (up 5.11%) and SHFE tin at ¥343,040 per ton (up 3.02%). Supply from Indonesia has increased, but demand remains cautious [46] Precious Metals - **Gold**: COMEX gold closed at $4,368.70 per ounce (up 0.90%), while SHFE gold was at ¥979.90 per gram (up 0.95%). Economic data from the U.S. showed mixed results, but overall inflation appears to be cooling, which may influence future gold prices positively [4][49] - **Silver**: The report warns of extreme bullish sentiment in silver, with potential for a sharp correction as market volatility peaks [50]

证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·建筑材料 建筑材料行业跟踪周报 地产数据环比不悲观 2025 年 12 月 22 日 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 周观点：（1）11 月地产数据同比来看，如期降幅扩大，但环比来看，除 了拿地金额大幅弱化，地产销售和建安投资仍保持了正常季节性规律。 地产数据分叉值得重视，若能持续则说明地产有企稳迹象。经济工作会 议之后，经济刺激预期有所弱化。美联储议息决议反映出后续降息路径 比较纠结。短期市场或进入震荡期，首先关注红利高息方向，例如兔宝 宝、上峰水泥、塔牌集团、欧普照明、欧派家居等。其次是欧美出口产 业链，例如中国巨石、中材科技、圣晖集成、亚翔集成、爱丽家居、石 头科技、海尔智家等。再次是装修消费方向，例如三棵树、悍高集团、 箭牌家居、兔宝宝、欧派家居等。中长期而言，中国国力的相对上升和 再通胀进程或推动汇率持续升值，消费和科技白马公司值得战略性关 注。（2）科技方面，十五五期间科技自立自强是重中之重。国产半导体 有望加快发展，尤其是先进制程，继续推荐洁净室工程板块，订单均有 高增，例如圣晖集成，建议关注亚翔集成和柏诚股份，受益 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the mechanical equipment industry, indicating an expectation of performance exceeding the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [11]. Core Insights - Galaxy General has completed a new round of financing amounting to $300 million, achieving a valuation of $3 billion, making it the leader in China's humanoid robot industry [1]. - The company focuses on the development of the "brain" of robots, enhancing their intelligence and generalization capabilities, which are currently lacking for large-scale industrialization [2]. - Significant partnerships have been established with leading companies in various sectors, including automotive and instant retail, indicating strong market demand and collaboration potential [2]. Summary by Sections Financing and Valuation - Galaxy General's recent financing round raised $300 million, with a current valuation of $3 billion, positioning it as the top player in the humanoid robot sector in China [1]. Technological Development - The company is concentrating on the software aspect of robotics, particularly the development of the GraspVLA model to improve task execution capabilities [2]. - In response to the current shortage of high-quality datasets, Galaxy General is pursuing a simulation data approach, which has shown promising progress [2]. Strategic Partnerships - Collaborations with major firms such as Tianqi Co., CATL, Bosch, Toyota, and others have been established, leading to the first successful deployment of humanoid robots in factories [2]. - In the instant retail sector, partnerships with companies like Aibo Medical and Meituan have been formed to implement robots in 24-hour unattended pharmacies [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that have equity investments in Galaxy General and have signed cooperation agreements, specifically Tianqi Co. and Shoucheng Holdings [4].

Macro Strategy - The report highlights that export control measures on key metals have become a crucial advantage for China in the context of major power competition, particularly against the US and EU [8][9] - China's leading position in key metals is attributed to its resource advantages and a complete industrial system, which is difficult for developed economies to replicate in the short term [8] Fixed Income - The bond market is expected to face challenges in 2026, with less likelihood of a one-sided decline in interest rates as seen from 2022 to 2024, suggesting a need for a more flexible trading strategy [10] - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yield increased slightly to 1.8425% during the week, reflecting market reactions to policy announcements [10] Industry Analysis Minshi Group (敏实集团) - Minshi Group is a leading global supplier of automotive exterior and structural parts, benefiting from the acceleration of electric vehicle adoption in Europe, particularly in the battery box business [22][24] - The company is expanding into humanoid robotics and liquid cooling for servers, which are expected to open new growth opportunities [22][24] - Profit forecasts for Minshi Group indicate net profits of 2.753 billion, 3.257 billion, and 3.878 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with corresponding EPS of 2.34, 2.76, and 3.29 yuan, and P/E ratios of 11.91, 10.07, and 8.46 respectively [22] Zhongwei Company (中微公司) - Zhongwei Company plans to acquire Hangzhou Zhonggui to enhance its capabilities in CMP equipment, which is crucial for semiconductor manufacturing [7] - The acquisition aims to strengthen Zhongwei's competitiveness in complete process solutions, complementing its existing dry process equipment [7] - Profit forecasts for Zhongwei Company remain at 2.44 billion, 3.41 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with dynamic P/E ratios of 70, 50, and 38 respectively [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the power equipment industry [1]. Core Insights - The energy storage lithium battery sector is experiencing robust demand despite the off-season, while the photovoltaic industry is pushing back against internal competition [1]. - The report highlights significant growth in energy storage installations, particularly in the U.S., with a projected increase of over 60% in demand next year [4][9]. - The electric vehicle market is also showing strong performance, with November sales in China up 21% year-on-year, and an expected annual growth of 30% [4][29]. Industry Trends - **Energy Storage**: The report notes that the U.S. added 1,674 MW of energy storage capacity in October, a year-on-year increase of 131%, with a total of 10,692 MW installed from January to October, reflecting a 38% increase [9][22]. - **Electric Vehicles**: In November, domestic sales reached 182,000 units, with a cumulative total of 1,473,000 units for the year, marking a 31% increase year-on-year [29]. - **Photovoltaics**: The report indicates a decline in domestic terminal demand in Q4, with production expected to decrease, while prices for silicon materials are anticipated to rise [4]. Company-Specific Developments - **Ningde Times**: Recognized as a global leader in power and energy storage batteries, with a low valuation despite strong growth prospects [7]. - **Sunshine Power**: A global leader in inverters, benefiting from overseas energy storage integration [7]. - **Ganfeng Lithium**: Noted for its increasing self-mining ratio and strong position in the lithium carbonate market [7]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on leading companies in the energy storage and lithium battery sectors, with specific recommendations for companies like Ningde Times, Ganfeng Lithium, and Sunshine Power due to their strong growth potential and market positions [4][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the pharmaceutical and biotechnology sector [1] Core Insights - The oral treatment landscape for psoriasis has established a dual leadership pattern with TYK2 and IL23 inhibitors, highlighting the potential of companies like Yifang Biopharma, Nocankang, and Haishike [1][16] - The A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index has surged by 65.28% [4][9] - The report emphasizes the importance of innovative drugs, with a ranking of preferred sub-industries: innovative drugs > research services > CXO > traditional Chinese medicine > medical devices > pharmacies [10][12] Industry Trends - The report notes that the A-share pharmaceutical index has underperformed relative to the CSI 300 index, with a slight decrease of 0.14% this week [4][9] - The report highlights the strong performance of the medical commercial sector (+4.94%) and medical devices (+1.16%) this week, while the chemical pharmaceuticals sector saw a decline of -1.74% [4][9] - The report identifies key companies to watch in the TYK2 space, including Yifang Biopharma and Nocankang, as well as those involved in oral IL23 treatments like Haishike [16][12] Company-Specific Recommendations - Recommended companies in the innovative drug sector include: - Yifang Biopharma - Nocankang - Haishike - Heng Rui Medicine - Bai Jie Shen Zhou - Shi Yao Group - Zai Jian Medicine - Di Zhe Medicine [12][16] - In the CXO and research services sector, recommended companies include: - WuXi AppTec - Hao Yuan Medicine - Aopumai - Kingsray Biotech [12] - For traditional Chinese medicine, companies to focus on include: - Zuo Li Pharmaceutical - Fang Sheng Pharmaceutical - Dong E E Jiao [12] Market Performance - The report indicates that the A-share pharmaceutical index has shown a year-to-date increase of 14.49%, while the Hang Seng Healthcare Index has increased by 65.28% [4][9] - The report also notes that the medical commercial sector has performed well this week, with a gain of 4.94% [4][9]