非银金融/证券Ⅱ 国联民生（601456.SH） 并表民生证券，收入跨越式提升 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 国联民生 沪深300 《投资收益拖累业绩，看好收购民生 证券的协同效应—公司信息更新报 告》-2025.3.27 《业绩符合预期，自营投资收益率回 升—国联证券 2024 三季报点评》 -2024.11.4 ——国联民生 2025 中报点评 | 高超（分析师） | 卢崑（分析师） | | --- | --- | | gaochao1@kysec.cn | lukun@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520050001 | 证书编号：S0790524040002 | |  并表民生证券，收入跨越式提升，看好协同效应 | | 2025H1 公司营业收入/归母净利润 40.1/11.3 亿元，同比 269%/+1185%，单 Q2 归 母净利润 7.5 亿元，环比+100%。年化加权平均 ROE5.0%，同比+4pct，期末杠 杆率（扣客户保证金）2.93 倍，环比+0.12 倍。公司发行股份收购民生证券于 2 ...

非银金融/证券Ⅱ 兴业证券（601377.SH） 业绩改善，经纪与自营投资收益同比高增 2025 年 09 月 03 日 投资评级：买入（维持） | 日期 | 2025/9/2 | | --- | --- | | 当前股价(元) | 6.64 | | 一年最高最低(元) | 7.50/5.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 573.43 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 573.43 | | 总股本(亿股) | 86.36 | | 流通股本(亿股) | 86.36 | | 近 3 个月换手率(%) | 91.22 | 股价走势图 数据来源：聚源 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 兴业证券 沪深300 相关研究报告 《零售业务能力提升，自营投资收益 高弹性—兴业证券 2024 年报及 2025 一季报点评》-2025.4.29 《客户保证金高增，自营投资收益率 回升—兴业证券 2024 三季报点评》 -2024.11.4 《手续费业务同比承压，二季度自营 投资环比高增—兴业证券 2024中报点 评》-2024.9.3 ——兴业证券 2025 ...

Summary of Key Points Overall Market Trends - The overall market shows a rebound in institutional attention, particularly in the mechanical, pharmaceutical, and automotive sectors [5][6][7] - The Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices have shown varied performance across different sectors, with banking and utilities leading in gains [1][2] Industry Insights - The pharmaceutical sector is witnessing significant advancements in the small molecule GLP-1RA space, with Orforglipron leading globally and domestic pipelines gaining value [28][30][31] - The mechanical industry is focusing on unmanned intelligent equipment, highlighted by the upcoming military parade showcasing new technologies [35][36][38] Company-Specific Updates - **Old Phoenix (老凤祥)**: The company reported a 10.5% year-on-year increase in Q2 revenue, with a focus on brand rejuvenation and product upgrades [42][44] - **Federation Pharmaceutical (联邦制药)**: The company achieved a 4.61% increase in revenue for H1 2025, with significant growth in its formulation segment [46][48] - **Giant Star Agriculture (巨星农牧)**: The company experienced a 66.49% increase in revenue for H1 2025, driven by a substantial rise in pig sales [51][52] - **China Shenhua (中国神华)**: The company reported a decline in revenue but maintained strong integrated operations, with a focus on asset injection and sustainable dividends [56][58] Investment Recommendations - The small molecule GLP-1RA market is expected to provide new growth opportunities, with several domestic companies positioned to benefit from international expansion [33] - Companies involved in the mechanical sector, particularly those developing robotic technologies, are recommended for investment due to their innovative potential [39][40]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][6][15] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year contraction in revenue and profit, but maintained a high collection ratio, indicating stable overall operations and a positive long-term outlook [6][7] - The company’s dual business operations are expected to synergize and enhance overall performance, with profit forecasts for 2025-2027 remaining unchanged [6][7] - The current stock price corresponds to estimated net profits of 40.1 billion, 45.1 billion, and 50.5 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with EPS values of 1.4, 1.6, and 1.7, leading to P/E ratios of 7.8, 6.9, and 6.2 [6][9] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved total operating revenue of 315.32 billion, a decrease of 1.16% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.841 billion, down 29.87% year-on-year [7][9] - The company’s gross margin and net margin were 4.21% and 0.18%, respectively, reflecting declines of 0.57 percentage points and 0.34 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company’s asset-liability ratio stood at 74.32%, with a current ratio of 1.35 and a quick ratio of 0.63 [7] Sales and Collection Performance - The real estate segment reported a contract sales amount of 82.94 billion, an increase of 11.67% year-on-year, with a collection ratio of 95%, maintaining a high level [8] - The subsidiary achieved contract sales of 70.83 billion, up 7.31% year-on-year, while another subsidiary reported a contract sales increase of 29.19% [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 7.519 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.61%. The net profit reached 1.894 billion yuan, up by 27.02%, with a non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.894 billion yuan, increasing by 37.37%. The gross margin was 52.19%, up by 5.58 percentage points, and the net margin was 25.18%, up by 4.44 percentage points. The long-term development of the company is viewed positively, maintaining profit forecasts for 2025-2027 with expected net profits of 2.839 billion, 2.452 billion, and 2.705 billion yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 8.98, 10.4, and 9.43 times for the years 2025-2027 [7][8] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the formulation segment led growth with a revenue increase of 65.9% to 3.979 billion yuan, accounting for 52.9% of total external sales. The insulin series showed outstanding performance with a revenue growth of 74.5% and a sales volume increase of 90.4%. The revenue from external licensing reached 1.434 billion yuan, mainly from the UBT251 licensing agreement with Novo Nordisk. However, the intermediate and raw material drug segments faced revenue declines of 23.1% and 27.0%, respectively [8][9] Research and Development Progress - The company has made significant progress in its R&D projects, with multiple products in the formulation segment receiving key approvals, including liraglutide injection and polyethylene glycol eye drops. The animal health segment is expanding with six product registrations in Vietnam and Australia, and 19 overseas registrations initiated. The new production facilities are expected to add over 5 billion yuan in annual output once fully operational, with 61 ongoing R&D projects covering various animal health areas [9][8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4][11]. Core Insights - The company experienced significant revenue growth in H1 2025, with revenue reaching $940 million, a year-on-year increase of 47%, and net profit of $32 million, a year-on-year increase of 340% [4]. - The gross margin improved to 21.44%, up by 0.88 percentage points, while the net margin increased to 3.44%, up by 2.29 percentage points [4]. - The growth is attributed to the continuous iteration of the AI-driven smart bidding system and the strengthening of the company's flywheel effect, which enhances economies of scale [4]. - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised upwards, with expected revenues of $2.38 billion, $2.93 billion, and $3.57 billion respectively [4]. - The company is expected to maintain a strong contribution to revenue growth through its Mintegral platform, which has seen a significant increase in developer participation [5]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for 2023 is projected at $1.054 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 17.9%, and is expected to reach $2.381 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth of 57.9% [7]. - Net profit is forecasted to increase from $25 million in 2023 to $124 million in 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 607.5% [7]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 20.6% in 2023 to 23.6% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to rise from 2.3% to 5.2% over the same period [7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 132.5 in 2023 to 26.3 in 2025, indicating a more attractive valuation as earnings grow [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company has reached a revenue bottom in Q2 2025, with dual growth trajectories in LED and optical communication expected to drive future performance [5][6] - The company reported Q2 2025 revenue of 4.06 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 330 million yuan, down 34.1% [5] - The company is positioned as a global leader in TV ODM, with significant capacity expansion in Vietnam to accommodate transferred orders, and is seeing an increase in market share for high-end LED chips and Mini/Micro LED products [5][6] - The optical communication segment is also making significant strides, with a market share of 40% for BOSA devices and successful product validation with major optical communication equipment manufacturers [6] Financial Summary - For H1 2025, the company's revenue from multimedia audio-visual products and services was 5.68 billion yuan, down 18.2%, while LED industry revenue was 2.81 billion yuan, up 8.7% [6] - The company’s gross margin for Q2 2025 was 15.7%, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 6.9%, down 2.3 percentage points [7] - The company maintains its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of 1.45 billion, 1.84 billion, and 2.17 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.32, 0.41, and 0.48 yuan [5][8] Valuation Metrics - The current stock price is 5.81 yuan, with a market capitalization of 26.302 billion yuan [1] - The projected P/E ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.6, 13.9, and 11.8 respectively [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved a record high quarterly revenue of 534 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 40.99%. This growth is attributed to the recovery of the global semiconductor industry and the company's technological advantages [4][5] - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 74.70%, a slight decline of 1.15 percentage points year-over-year. The net profit attributable to the parent company reached 196 million yuan, up 74.04% year-over-year, driven by economies of scale in sales and management expenses [4][5] - The company is expected to maintain strong revenue growth, with projected revenues of 1.18 billion yuan, 1.42 billion yuan, and 1.81 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][8] Financial Performance Summary - In Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 337 million yuan, a year-over-year increase of 39.03% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 70.40%. The gross margin for Q2 was 74.34%, with a net profit of 134 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 50.30% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 116.13% [4][5] - The company’s financial projections indicate a recovery in revenue and profit margins, with expected net profits of 434 million yuan, 548 million yuan, and 742 million yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [8][10] Market Outlook - The semiconductor market is experiencing strong growth, with the global semiconductor market size reaching 346 billion USD in H1 2025, a year-over-year increase of 18.9%. Key growth drivers include AI data centers and high-performance computing [6] - The automotive and industrial markets are also showing signs of recovery, which is expected to boost demand for the company's products. The company is expanding its market presence and has launched the STS 8600 platform for digital chip testing, which is currently in the customer validation phase [5][6][7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company for the first time [4] Core Viewpoints - The company is a leading brand in the spicy snack industry, focusing on flavored noodle products and vegetable snacks, achieving impressive growth through strategic product expansion and channel development [4][5] - The management team is stable and experienced, enhancing operational efficiency and supply chain capabilities [4][5] - Revenue and profit are expected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 77.2 billion, 93.3 billion, and 110.6 billion yuan, and net profits of 13.8 billion, 17.0 billion, and 20.6 billion yuan respectively [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company has established itself as a leader in the spicy snack market, with a strong brand presence and innovative product offerings [14] - It has built a comprehensive sales network across 22 regions in China and has expanded its product line to include new flavors and healthier options [14][20] 2. Industry Growth - The snack food industry in China is experiencing steady growth, with the spicy snack segment expected to reach a market size of 273.7 billion yuan by 2026, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9.6% [32][33] - The vegetable snack segment, particularly konjac products, is also seeing rapid growth, with the market size projected to exceed 180 billion yuan by 2024 [45][53] 3. Product Development - The company is focusing on enhancing its core products, particularly spicy noodle snacks, while also expanding its vegetable product line, which has seen significant revenue growth [5][20] - The konjac product line has become a second growth engine for the company, with a strong brand presence and consumer acceptance [5][51] 4. Channel Strategy - The company is actively expanding its distribution channels, including traditional retail and emerging online platforms, with a notable increase in online sales [6][43] - Collaborations with discount retailers and membership stores are part of the strategy to enhance market penetration [6][57] 5. Financial Performance - The company's revenue has shown a robust growth trend, with a significant increase in net profit expected in the coming years [17][19] - The gross margin has improved due to the rising share of high-margin vegetable products in the overall product mix [21][20]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Fosun International (00656.HK) is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report highlights that Fosun International's revenue for H1 2025 was 87.3 billion HKD, a year-on-year decrease of 10.8%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.6 billion HKD, down 8.2% year-on-year. The operational profit was 31.5 billion HKD, reflecting a decline of 9.3% primarily due to the performance drop in the Happy segment, particularly from Yuyuan [5] - The report maintains profit forecasts, expecting net profits attributable to shareholders to be 1.23 billion HKD, 1.63 billion HKD, and 1.9 billion HKD for 2025-2027, with year-on-year growth of 32.4% and 17% respectively. The EPS is projected to remain at 0.2 HKD for these years, with the current stock price corresponding to P/E ratios of 32.1, 24.3, and 20.7 times [5] - The report emphasizes the group's focus on asset quality improvement and the deepening of global operations, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Indicators - Revenue for 2023 is reported at 198.2 billion HKD, with a projected decrease to 192.1 billion HKD in 2024, followed by an increase to 201.7 billion HKD in 2025. The net profit is expected to recover from a loss of 4.35 billion HKD in 2024 to 1.23 billion HKD in 2025 [8] - The gross margin is projected to be 42.8% in 2025, with a net margin of 0.6%. The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 0.7% in 2025, with an EPS of 0.2 HKD [8] - The report indicates a stable credit rating for the group, with the average debt cost decreasing to 5.3% in H1 2025, down 50 basis points year-on-year [5]