Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The report indicates that pig prices are stabilizing at low levels, with a continued reduction in breeding stock. As of October 17, 2025, the national average price for live pigs is 11.18 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.19 yuan/kg but a year-on-year decrease of 6.52% [3][12] - The report highlights that the price of piglets has further declined, which may accelerate the culling of sows. The price for 7kg piglets has dropped to 165 yuan/head, below the industry average cost of 300 yuan/head, leading to potential losses that could hasten the elimination of sows [4][19] - The report notes that the domestic pet market is experiencing a rise in local brands, particularly during the Double Eleven pre-sale event, where the top eight brands in sales are all domestic [5][22] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The pig price is in a low-level fluctuation, with breeding stock reduction continuing. The proportion of breeding stock in actual sales is 1.02%, with a week-on-week increase of 0.09 percentage points but a year-on-year decrease of 5.07 percentage points. The utilization rate of breeding facilities is 32%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous period and down 15.9 percentage points year-on-year [12][13] Weekly Perspective - The report suggests that losses in pig farming may accelerate the reduction of breeding stock. The price of live pigs continues to decline, reaching a new low for the year, and the losses in pig farming are deepening. The report recommends stocks such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and others [29][30] Market Performance (October 13-17) - The agricultural sector underperformed the market by 0.73 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 1.47% and the agricultural index down 2.20%. Notable stock performances include Shenyin Wanguo Biological (+10.33%) and others [32][37] Price Tracking (October 13-17) - The average price for live pigs is 11.17 yuan/kg, down 0.01 yuan/kg from the previous week. The average price for piglets is 17.99 yuan/kg, down 0.73 yuan/kg. The average price for white strip meat is 14.68 yuan/kg, down 0.51 yuan/kg [6][47] Key News (October 13-17) - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a video conference to strengthen the inspection and slaughtering of pigs, emphasizing the importance of quality control in pork products [38]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent global market downturn has led to a limited adjustment in the North Exchange, with the North 50 index showing a smaller decline compared to other major indices, indicating a potential valuation advantage for growth stocks [1][9][19] - The North Exchange's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio as of October 17, 2025, is 48.34X, which is lower than the PE ratios of the ChiNext and Sci-Tech boards, suggesting a narrowing valuation gap with the ChiNext and a widening discount compared to the Sci-Tech board [17][19][22] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on technology growth and undervalued stocks, particularly those with strong performance in the upcoming quarterly reports [40][41] Group 2 - The North Exchange has seen a decline in liquidity, with average daily trading volume dropping to 181.85 billion yuan and turnover rate to 3.87% from previous higher levels [12][20][24] - The report notes that the North Exchange has a significant number of companies with high PE ratios, with 140 companies exceeding 45X, indicating a potential risk in overvaluation [33][36] - The report suggests that investors should pay attention to companies with stable performance and reasonable valuations, particularly in sectors like high-end equipment, information technology, and chemical new materials, which have varying PE ratios [34][37][42]

Group 1 - The Bay Area Semiconductor Expo successfully showcased high-growth semiconductor targets, with 18 companies in the semiconductor industry on the North Exchange, totaling a market value of 73.242 billion yuan as of October 17, 2025 [2][22][24] - Tonghui Electronics (920509.BJ) achieved a revenue of 101 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 16.81%, and a net profit of 29.3099 million yuan, up 55.40% year-on-year [2][24][27] - The semiconductor industry is expected to benefit from the integration of the entire semiconductor supply chain, with significant participation from top global companies [12][13] Group 2 - The average weekly decline for five major industries, including high-end equipment and information technology, was recorded at -4.50% and -5.43% respectively [3][28] - The median price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the high-end equipment industry dropped to 40.1X, while the information technology sector saw an increase to 69.6X [3][30] - The chemical new materials industry also experienced a decline in median PE ratio to 40.4X, with notable performers like Litong Technology increasing by 39.83% [3][31] Group 3 - In the technology sector, the median TTM PE ratio for 156 companies decreased from 48.9X to 45.8X, with an overall market capitalization drop from 495.739 billion yuan to 471.131 billion yuan [4][40][41] - The top five gainers in the technology sector included Wantong Hydraulic (+16.56%) and Tonghui Electronics (+15.66%) [4][38][43] - The smart manufacturing industry saw its median PE ratio drop to 50.1X, while the electronic industry’s median PE ratio fell to 54.0X [4][45][51] Group 4 - The third-quarter reports are being disclosed, highlighting high-growth and scarce targets such as Yabo Xuan, which reported a revenue of 419 million yuan, up 55.9% year-on-year [5][62] - Other companies like Minshida and Lichuang Technology also reported significant revenue growth, with Minshida achieving 343 million yuan in revenue, a 21.77% increase [5][63] - The announcements indicate a focus on innovation and technology advancements, with several companies receiving patents and regulatory approvals [5][62][63]

北交所信息更新 AIDC 高功率及变压器驱动电气绝缘高增长，2025Q1-3 营收+22% ——北交所信息更新 新能源汽车销量高增长，汽车电机领域芳纶纸市场发展空间广阔 新能源汽车充电速度的提升问题使得驱动电机需要承载更高的电压，而高电压 导致的局部放电使电机对绝缘材料提出了更高的要求，新能源汽车引入芳纶纸 的应用，既可以降低绝缘材料的厚度，提高电机槽满率，提升电机的功率，还 可以提高电机的抗过载能力，满足汽车短时加速和最大爬坡要求。公司产品在 新能源汽车领域持续增长，其中 2025H1 拳头产品 YT510W 同比销售量增速超 40%。根据中汽协会数据，2025 年 1-9 月，中国新能源汽车产销分别完成 1124.3 万辆和 1122.8 万辆，同比分别增长 35.2%和 34.9%。 AIDC 机柜高功率演进+欧美电网升级，驱动变压器领域芳纶纸需求扩张 中国 AI 智能数据中心等行业持续高速发展，带动驱动电机、各类变压器市场需 求增长；同时欧美电网升级及算力需求增长带动变压器需求扩张，加之公司持 续加大海外市场的开发力度，推动芳纶纸公司在电气绝缘领域实现同比高增长。 从智算中心机柜功率来看，根据中国智算 ...

基础化工 基础化工 2025 年 10 月 19 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 基础化工 沪深300 相关研究报告 《六氟磷酸锂供需面改善，陶氏一工 厂发生火灾影响其 MDI、乙烯等装置 生产—行业周报》-2025.10.12 《《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案 （2025-2026 年）》印发，草铵膦、锦 纶行业反内卷有序推进—行业周报》 -2025.9.28 《UCO-SAF 供需持续偏紧，欧盟对美 SAF 征收反侵销税或凸显中国 SAF 竞 争力—行业点评报告》-2025.9.25 《水俣公约》有望加速电石法 PVC 落后产能淘汰， LG 化学计划关闭韩国 HDPE 工厂 ——行业周报 | 金益腾（分析师） | 李思佳（分析师） | | --- | --- | | jinyiteng@kysec.cn | lisijia@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520020002 | 证书编号：S0790525070006 | |  本周行业观点：《水俣公约》有望加速电石法 | PVC ...

行 业 研 究 2025 年 10 月 19 日 邓健全（首席分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090003 赵旭杨（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523090002 傅昌鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090005 徐剑峰（分析师） 证书编号：S0790525090004 王镇涛（研究员） 证书编号：S0790124070021 相关研究报告 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-10 2025-02 2025-06 汽车 沪深300 汽车研究团队 《小鹏汽车将举行 AI 科技日，Figure 03 开启人形机器人量产时代—行业周 报》-2025.10.11 《理想 i6 正式发布，尚界 H5 1 小时大 定突破 1 万台—行业周报》-2025.9.28 《8 月汽车产销保持稳健增长，英伟达 入局 Robotaxi—行业周报》-2025.9.21 ——行业周报 | 邓健全（分析师） | 傅昌鑫（分析师） | 王镇涛（联系人） | | --- | --- | --- | | dengjianquan@kysec.cn | fuc ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous recommendation of domestic investment opportunities due to increasing external technology controls and the ongoing promotion of domestic innovation policies, indicating a clear trend towards self-sufficiency in key technologies [6][13] - The performance of leading domestic computing companies is showing significant revenue growth, validating the trend of domestic industrial development [7][14] Summary by Sections Weekly Perspective - The report highlights the sustained recommendation of domestic investment opportunities, noting a decline in the CSI 300 index by 2.22% and a 5.61% drop in the computer index during the week of October 13-17, 2025 [5][12] Company Dynamics - Haiguang Information reported a revenue of 40.26 billion yuan for Q3 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 69.60% and a net profit of 759.99 million yuan, up 13.04% [16] - Cambricon Technologies achieved a revenue of 1.727 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with a staggering year-on-year increase of 1332.52%, and a net profit of 567 million yuan, indicating a strong turnaround [14] Investment Recommendations - Key domestic software companies recommended include Kingsoft Office, Dameng Data, and others, while leading domestic computing companies such as Haiguang Information and Sugon are also highlighted for their growth potential [8][15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The OCP summit showcased advancements in optical communication, liquid cooling, and power supply sectors, indicating accelerated development in these areas [10][11] - TSMC raised its capital expenditure guidance due to strong AI demand, projecting a total capital expenditure of USD 40-42 billion for 2025, up from the previous guidance of USD 38-42 billion [12] - The report emphasizes three main investment lines: optical communication, liquid cooling, and domestic computing power [5] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Investment Insights - The OCP summit highlighted significant developments in optical communication, liquid cooling, and power supply sectors [10] - TSMC's capital expenditure guidance was raised, reflecting robust AI demand [12] - Investment suggestions focus on the computing power supply chain and AI applications [13][14] 2. Communication Data Tracking - As of August 2025, China had 4.646 million 5G base stations, with a net increase of 395,000 stations from the end of 2024 [24] - The number of 5G mobile phone users reached 1.154 billion, a year-on-year increase of 19.46% [24] - 5G mobile phone shipments in June 2025 were 18.436 million units, accounting for 81.6% of total shipments, but showed a year-on-year decline of 16.7% [24] 3. Operator Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Mobile's cloud revenue reached CNY 56.1 billion, up 11.3% year-on-year; China Telecom's cloud revenue was CNY 57.3 billion, up 3.8%; and China Unicom's cloud revenue was CNY 37.6 billion, up 4.6% [39] - The ARPU values for the three major operators remained stable, with slight decreases noted for China Unicom [39][42]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that the performance and valuation of the industry are approaching a double bottom, recommending to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index increased by 0.9% from October 13 to October 17, outperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 3.1 percentage points [11][12] - Short-term demand for liquor is nearing a bottom, with business demand under pressure and slight improvements in terminal consumption [3][11] - The report emphasizes the need to observe macroeconomic trends for long-term industry outlook, with expectations of a more gradual recovery slope [3][11] Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Insights - The report indicates a double bottom in performance and valuation, suggesting to strengthen positions during the bottom cycle [3][11] - The food and beverage index outperformed the market, ranking third among primary sub-industries [11][12] 2. Market Performance - The food and beverage index rose by 0.9%, with other liquor categories, health products, and liquor showing relative strength [12][13] - Notable individual stock performances included Kuaijishan, Miaokelando, and Guifaxiang leading in gains [12][13] 3. Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, with full-fat milk auction prices showing a year-on-year increase of 4.0% [17] - Domestic fresh milk prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year [17] 4. Liquor Industry News - Moutai 1935 saw significant year-on-year sales growth in September, indicating market resilience [40] - The report highlights the importance of observing the pricing changes of Moutai as a key internal factor [3][11] 5. Recommended Portfolio - Recommended stocks include Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Ximai Food, Weilong Delicious, and Bairun Shares, with each having specific growth potential and market strategies [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods - **Model Name**: "百元转股溢价率" (Hundred Yuan Conversion Premium Rate) **Model Construction Idea**: This model compares convertible bond valuation with stock valuation by constructing a time-series comparable valuation indicator[4][13] **Model Construction Process**: At each time point, the relationship curve between conversion premium rate and conversion value is fitted in the cross-sectional space. The conversion value of 100 is substituted into the fitting formula to obtain the "百元转股溢价率". The specific fitting formula is: $$ y_{i}=\alpha_{0}+\,\alpha_{1}\cdot\,{\frac{1}{x_{i}}}+\epsilon_{i} $$ In the formula, \( y_{i} \) represents the conversion premium rate of the \( i \)-th bond, \( x_{i} \) represents the conversion value of the \( i \)-th bond[42] **Model Evaluation**: The model provides a relative valuation perspective for convertible bonds and stocks[4][13] - **Model Name**: "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM"中位数 (Adjusted YTM - Credit Bond YTM Median) **Model Construction Idea**: This model isolates the impact of conversion clauses on convertible bond YTM to compare the relative valuation of debt-oriented convertible bonds and credit bonds[5][13] **Model Construction Process**: $$ 修正 YTM = 转债 YTM ×（1–转股概率）+ 预期转股的到期年化收益率×转股概率 $$ Using the BS model, the conversion probability \( N(d2) \) is calculated by substituting stock closing price, option exercise price, stock volatility, remaining term, and discount rate. Then, the adjusted YTM for each debt-oriented convertible bond is calculated. The median of the difference between adjusted YTM and credit bond YTM is expressed as: $$ "修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM"中位数 = median{X1, X2, ... , Xn} $$ Where \( X_{i} \) represents the difference between the adjusted YTM of the \( i \)-th convertible bond and the YTM of a credit bond with the same rating and term[43] **Model Evaluation**: The model effectively evaluates the relative cost-effectiveness of debt-oriented convertible bonds compared to credit bonds[5][13] Model Backtesting Results - **"百元转股溢价率" Model**: Rolling three-year percentile is 98.70%, rolling five-year percentile is 94.90%[4][14] - **"修正 YTM – 信用债 YTM" Model**: Current median value is -2.96%, indicating low cost-effectiveness for debt-oriented convertible bonds[5][14] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods - **Factor Name**: 转股溢价率偏离度 (Conversion Premium Rate Deviation) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the deviation of the conversion premium rate relative to the fitted value, making different parities comparable[19] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ 转股溢价率偏离度 = 转股溢价率 − 拟合转股溢价率 $$ The number of convertible bonds determines the fitting quality[19] **Factor Evaluation**: Provides a systematic enhancement perspective for convertible bond valuation[18][19] - **Factor Name**: 理论价值偏离度 (Theoretical Value Deviation - Monte Carlo Model) **Factor Construction Idea**: Measures the price expectation difference using Monte Carlo simulation, fully considering convertible bond clauses such as conversion, redemption, downward revision, and repurchase[19] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ 理论价值偏离度 = 转债收盘价 / 理论价值 - 1 $$ At each time point, 10,000 paths are simulated using the same credit term limit rate as the discount rate to calculate the theoretical value of the convertible bond[19] **Factor Evaluation**: Performs well in evaluating convertible bonds, especially equity-oriented ones[18][19] - **Factor Name**: 转债综合估值因子 (Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor) **Factor Construction Idea**: Combines the above two factors to enhance valuation across all domains and subdomains (equity-oriented, balanced, debt-oriented)[18][19] **Factor Construction Process**: $$ 转债综合估值因子 = Rank（转股溢价率偏离度）+ Rank（理论价值偏离度（蒙特卡洛模拟）） $$ **Factor Evaluation**: Demonstrates superior performance in valuation enhancement across all domains[18][19] Factor Backtesting Results - **Conversion Premium Rate Deviation Factor**: Near-term enhancement excess returns for equity-oriented, balanced, and debt-oriented convertible bonds are -3.01%, -0.34%, and -0.02%, respectively[6][21] - **Theoretical Value Deviation Factor**: Performs best in equity-oriented convertible bonds[18][19] - **Convertible Bond Comprehensive Valuation Factor**: - Equity-oriented low valuation index: IR = 1.24, annualized return = 25.45%, annualized volatility = 20.54%, maximum drawdown = -22.94%, Calmar ratio = 1.11, monthly win rate = 61.96%[22] - Balanced low valuation index: IR = 1.26, annualized return = 14.90%, annualized volatility = 11.85%, maximum drawdown = -15.95%, Calmar ratio = 0.93, monthly win rate = 63.04%[22] - Debt-oriented low valuation index: IR = 1.40, annualized return = 13.28%, annualized volatility = 9.48%, maximum drawdown = -17.78%, Calmar ratio = 0.75, monthly win rate = 58.70%[22] Convertible Bond Style Rotation and Construction Methods - **Rotation Method**: **Idea**: Uses market sentiment indicators (convertible bond momentum and volatility deviation) to construct a convertible bond style rotation portfolio[7][26] **Process**: $$ 转债风格市场情绪捕捉指标 = Rank（转债 20 日动量）+ Rank（波动率偏离度） $$ Based on the ranking of sentiment indicators, the style index with the lowest ranking is selected for allocation. If rankings are equal, equal allocation is applied. If all three styles are selected, 100% allocation is made to the balanced low valuation style. Adjustments are made bi-weekly[27][28] **Evaluation**: Demonstrates stable excess returns compared to the convertible bond equal-weight index[30][33] Style Rotation Backtesting Results - **Convertible Bond Style Rotation**: - IR = 1.45, annualized return = 24.14%, annualized volatility = 16.70%, maximum drawdown = -15.89%, Calmar ratio = 1.52, monthly win rate = 64.13%[32] - Convertible Bond Low Valuation Equal-Weight Index: IR = 1.33, annualized return = 14.68%, annualized volatility = 11.01%, maximum drawdown = -15.48%, Calmar ratio = 0.95, monthly win rate = 61.96%[32] - Convertible Bond Equal-Weight Index: IR = 0.85, annualized return = 9.95%, annualized volatility = 11.75%, maximum drawdown = -20.60%, Calmar ratio = 0.48, monthly win rate = 60.87%[32] - Recent 4-week style rotation return: 2.26%; return since 2025: 37.81%[28][29]