证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月14日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 社融增速回升——2025 年 2 月金融数据点评：新增贷款 1.01 万亿元，社 融 2.24 万亿元。2 月末，M2 达 320.52 万亿，YoY+7.0%；M1YoY+0.1%；社融增 速 8.2%。2 月新增贷款受隐性债务置换影响，整体偏弱。24Q4 以来 M1 增速大幅 回升，经济活性有所提升。2 月份 M2 增速 7.0%，相对平稳。我们预计年内 M1 增 速将进一步回升。2 月社融同比多增，社融增速回升。展望 2025 年，我们预计新增 贷款同比接近，政府债券净融资同比扩大，社融同比多增，社融增速可能先回升后 回落，年末社融增速 8%左右。当前法定存款准备金利率 1.62%，而央行 7 天逆回购 利率 1.50%，银行拿央行 7 天的钱缴准甚至能挣钱，降准对银行经营业绩帮助小， 当前降准必要性较低。 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 海外/教育研究 美股温和反弹，等待下周利率决议——海外科技周报：本周美股市场 显著波动，尤其是科 ...

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月14日 华源晨会精粹 固定收益 社融增速回升——2025 年 2 月金融数据点评：新增贷款 1.01 万亿元，社 融 2.24 万亿元。2 月末，M2 达 320.52 万亿，YoY+7.0%；M1YoY+0.1%；社融增 速 8.2%。2 月新增贷款受隐性债务置换影响，整体偏弱。24Q4 以来 M1 增速大幅 回升，经济活性有所提升。2 月份 M2 增速 7.0%，相对平稳。我们预计年内 M1 增 速将进一步回升。2 月社融同比多增，社融增速回升。展望 2025 年，我们预计新增 贷款同比接近，政府债券净融资同比扩大，社融同比多增，社融增速可能先回升后 回落，年末社融增速 8%左右。当前法定存款准备金利率 1.62%，而央行 7 天逆回购 利率 1.50%，银行拿央行 7 天的钱缴准甚至能挣钱，降准对银行经营业绩帮助小， 当前降准必要性较低。 风险提示：政府债券增发规模大幅超预期，供给压力可能导致债市阶段性调整；经 济超预期复苏可能导致债市大跌；理财或基金投资监管政 ...

证券研究报告 传媒 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 证券分析师 陈良栋 SAC：S1350524100003 chenliangdong@huayuanstock.com 王世豪 SAC：S1350524120005 wangshihao@huayuanstock.com 魏桢 weizhen@huayuanstock.com 腾讯 AI 应用迭代加速，重视头部公司 AI 游戏示范效应 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——传媒互联网行业周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.16） 投资要点： 本周观点：自全面接入 DeepSeek 后，腾讯体系的 AI 应用产品迭代周期持续加速， 重视腾讯顶层 AI 战略的切变。同时《Whispers From The Star》正式公布首个 PV， 关注头部公司在 AI+游戏范式探索上的示范效应。 联系人 板块表现： 互联网方面：2025 年 3 月 13 日，腾讯元宝和腾讯文档正式打通。用户可直接上传 腾讯文档（包括文档、表格、PPT 等多形式）到腾讯元宝，让 AI 辅助总结、提炼要 点，且能一键导出腾讯元宝对话到腾讯文档，随时修改、 ...

证券研究报告 农林牧渔 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 雷轶 SAC：S1350524110001 leiyi@huayuanstock.com 冯佳文 SAC：S1350524120003 fengjiawen@huayuanstock.com 顾超 SAC：S1350524110005 guchao@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 生猪 2 月第三方能繁下降，白鸡价格 环比持续回暖 ——农林牧渔行业周报（20250310-20250314） 投资要点： 生猪：第三方机构样本 2 月能繁调减。 联系人 2 月涌益能繁母猪存栏量样本环比-0.05%（前值+0.63%），主要因头部部分企业更 新种群及前期超配后淘汰带动的母猪淘汰量增加。本周涌益数据最新猪价涨至 14.62 元/kg，出栏均重增至 127.92kg，15Kg 仔猪涨至 604 元/头，175kg 标肥价差为 0.80 元/kg。短期看，市场对后市价格及肥标价差持续强势预期不足，加之饲料原料涨价 拉升增重成本，二育群体出栏意愿增强，延后的供应压力开始显现， ...

Investment Rating - Investment rating: None [2] Core Insights - The US stock market experienced significant volatility this week, particularly in the technology sector, with the Nasdaq index dropping over 2.4% [3][6] - Concerns over a potential US economic recession, uncertainty regarding tariff policies, and rising bond yields have contributed to a shift in investor risk appetite [3][6] - The US is the largest consumer of uranium globally, with an annual demand of 47 million pounds, and the government is expected to push for domestic production to reduce reliance on foreign supplies [15] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Technology Index closed at 5880.8, down 2.6%, underperforming the Hang Seng Index by 1.5 percentage points [6][8] - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 4598.8, down 0.7%, outperforming the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 indices [6][8] - Top gainers this week included Intel (+17%), NANO NUCLEAR ENERGY (+12%), and NUSCALE POWER (+12%), while top losers included Adobe (-12%), Bilibili (-11%), and Apple (-11%) [8][12] Uranium Market Insights - UEC reported a sales and service revenue of $49.75 million for FY2Q25, primarily from uranium inventory sales, with a net loss of approximately $10.23 million due to operational expenses [14] - The cumulative production shortfall for uranium is projected to reach approximately 43.5 million pounds by 2026 and over 1 billion pounds by 2040 [15] Cryptocurrency Market Overview - The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies decreased to $2.71 trillion, down from $2.92 trillion the previous week [19] - The cryptocurrency market sentiment is currently in a state of extreme fear, with a Fear and Greed Index reading of 18 [21] - This week saw a significant net outflow of $921 million from core cryptocurrency ETFs, indicating a bearish trend in the market [24] Upcoming Events - Key upcoming earnings reports include Xiaomi Group on March 18, Tencent Holdings on March 19, and Micron Technology on March 20 [18] - In the cryptocurrency sector, Stronghold Digital Mining Inc is set to release its earnings forecast on March 19 [31]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the transportation industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The express logistics sector shows strong demand with a year-on-year growth of 22.4% in the volume of express deliveries for January and February, totaling 28.48 billion pieces and generating revenue of 221.04 billion yuan, which is an 11.2% increase [4] - The airline industry is expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery, with long-term supply-demand trends indicating potential for upward movement in stock prices. Current booking data suggests a short-term rebound, presenting a value opportunity for investors [10][12] - The shipping sector is experiencing a tightening supply due to limited new orders for oil tankers and an aging fleet, while demand is expected to rise due to increased non-OPEC production and sanctions on oil trade with Iran and Russia [12] Summary by Sections Express Logistics - The express delivery industry reported a total of 135.9 billion pieces in February, with a year-on-year growth of 58.8% and revenue of 99.09 billion yuan, up 30.4% [21][24] - Major companies to watch include Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, and Shentong Express, which are positioned for long-term growth and recovery [12] Airline Industry - The airline sector is characterized by low long-term supply growth, with demand expected to benefit from macroeconomic recovery. The current booking data indicates a potential rebound, making it a good time for investment [10] - Key companies to focus on include China National Aviation Holding, Southern Airlines, and Hainan Airlines [10][12] Shipping and Vessels - The oil tanker market is expected to see sustained demand growth due to limited new orders and increased sanctions on oil trade, while the dry bulk shipping market is anticipated to recover as environmental regulations push out older vessels [12] - Companies to consider include China Shipping Development and COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation [12]

证券研究报告 海外 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 郑嘉伟 SAC：S1350523120001 zhengjiawei@huayuanstock.com 于炳麟 SAC：S1350524060002 yubinglin@huayuanstock.com 郑冰倩 zhengbingqian@huayuanstock.com 美股温和反弹，等待下周利率决议 投资评级： 无 ——海外科技周报（25/3/10-25/3/14） 投资要点： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 联系人 海外 AI：本周美股市场经历了显著波动，尤其是科技股表现疲软。纳斯达克指数在本周累计下跌超过 2.4%，周 四单日跌幅达 1.96%，反映出科技股遭遇持续抛售压力。市场波动的主要原因包括对美国经济衰退的担忧、关税 政策的不确定性以及债券收益率上升，这些因素共同扭转了投资者的风险偏好，周前期 VIX 恐慌指数飙升，创下 近期高点。尽管如此，科技股在周后期显示出一定韧性，但市场情绪仍趋于谨慎。此外，本周美国本土铀矿企业 UEC 发布财报，本周 UEC 发布 FY2Q25 季度报告 ...

张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 交通运输 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 板块表现： 民航换季计划发布，快递 1-2 月需求高增 投资评级： 看好（维持） —交通运输行业周报（2025 年 3 月 10 日-2025 年 3 月 16 日） 投资要点： 一、行业动态跟踪 快递物流： 1）邮政局公布 1-2 月快递行业数据，1-2 月行业件量累计同比增长 22.4%。根据国 家邮政局发布数据，1 - 2 月快递业务量累计 284.8 亿件、收入累计 2210.4 亿元， 分别同比增长 22.4%、11.2%。1 - 2 月快递与包裹服务品牌集中度指数 CR8 为 87.1， 较 1 月上升 0.5。2 月快递业务量 1 ...

航运港口 行业点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 16 日 投资评级： 看好（维持） 证券分析师 孙延 SAC：S1350524050003 sunyan01@huayuanstock.com 曾智星 SAC：S1350524120008 zengzhixing@huayuanstock.com 王惠武 SAC：S1350524060001 wanghuiwu@huayuanstock.com 张付哲 zhangfuzhe@huayuanstock.com 证券研究报告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 联系人 板块表现： 源引金融活水 润泽中华大地 图表 1：美联储利率与原油油价波动呈现一定关联性 资料来源：iFinD，华源证券研究所 图表 2：全球原油库存处于 2020 年来低位 图表 3：全球陆地库存处于低位 资料来源：IEA，华源证券研究所 资料来源：IEA，华源证券研究所 图表 4：OECD 商业原油库存近期处于低位 图表 5：美国商业原油库存 2022 年后维持较低水平 美国衰退预期带跌油价，关注后续原油补库 ——航运船舶市场系列（十三） 投资要点： 投资评级说明 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the pharmaceutical industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][35] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the potential for accelerated growth in companies related to fertility support policies, with a strong recommendation for 麦澜德 (Milan) as a key player in this sector [3][11] - The industry is expected to benefit from a combination of innovation, international expansion, and an aging population, with a focus on identifying undervalued opportunities [24][36] Summary by Sections 1. Fertility Policies and Company Performance - Recent fertility policies are anticipated to boost the performance of related companies, particularly 麦澜德, which specializes in pelvic rehabilitation and postpartum recovery [11][17] - The report highlights a significant decline in birth rates, with 2023 figures showing a drop to 9.02 million births, necessitating government intervention through supportive policies [11][12] 2. Industry Perspective - The report outlines a strategic focus on innovation, international expansion, and addressing the needs of an aging population as the main themes for investment [24][36] - The pharmaceutical index has shown a 1.77% increase over the week, with notable individual stock performances, including 金城医药 (Jincheng Pharmaceutical) and 塞力医疗 (Saili Medical) [24][25] 3. Recommended Stocks - Key stocks to watch include 麦澜德, 一品红 (Yipinhong), and 健民集团 (Jianmin Group), among others, as they are positioned to benefit from the current market dynamics [40][36] - The report suggests a diversified approach, focusing on innovative pharmaceuticals, medical devices, and companies with strong international growth potential [36][38]