证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 05 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月05日 华源晨会精粹 交运 深圳国际(00152.HK)点评：转型升级兑现收益，高股息价值凸显。深圳国际发 布盈利预喜，预计 2024 年实现股东应占盈利 28 亿港元至 31 亿港元，同比上升约 53%至 63%，盈利增长主因：1）深国际华南物流园转型升级项目确认土地置换税后 收益约港币 23 亿元；2）成功将两个物流港项目置入公募 REIT，录得税后收益约港 币 5.87 亿元；3）主动优化借贷货币结构，汇兑损失大幅减少。华南物流园转型升 级项目兑现收益，2025-2026 年利润有望进一步增厚。分红派息政策稳定，高股息 下公司有望回归价值区间。 风险提示：物流园区项目进展或资产证券化进度不达预期；转型升级进度不及预期； 高速公路车流量有待恢复。 医药 东诚药业(002675.SZ)点评：肝素原料业务短期承压，核药创新管线持续推进。 公司发布 2024 年年报，2024 年实现营业收入 28.7 亿元，同比下滑 12.4%，实现归 母净利润 1.8 亿元，同比下滑 ...

证券研究报告 纺织服饰 | 服装家纺 非金融|首次覆盖报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 05 日 证券分析师 丁一 SAC：S1350524040003 dingyi@huayuanstock.com 周宸宇 zhouchenyu@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | 2025 | 年 | | 日 | | 月 | 03 | | | | 03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | 6.28 | | | | | | | | | | 一 年 最 | 高 | | | 7.48/4.34 | | / | | | 低 | 内 | 最 | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | 16,918.89 | | | | | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | 13,869.02 | | | | | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for its future performance [5][7]. Core Viewpoints - The ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage market in China is experiencing significant growth, with the company holding a dominant market position, achieving a market share of 73% in 2023 [6][31]. - The company's product matrix, which includes the "358" series (micro-drunk, refreshing, and strong), effectively targets different consumer demographics and drinking scenarios, enhancing brand recognition and loyalty [10][40]. - The report anticipates steady revenue growth, projecting operating income to reach 41.1 billion yuan by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.6% [5][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Background - The company was founded in 1997, initially focusing on flavor and fragrance development, and has since evolved into a leading player in the RTD beverage sector through strategic acquisitions and product innovation [18][22]. 2. Market Potential - The RTD market in China is projected to continue expanding, with a CAGR of 19% in volume and 18% in sales from 2018 to 2023, indicating substantial growth potential compared to Japan's market [6][31]. - The consumer base is primarily young adults aged 18-34, with a significant female demographic, driven by the appeal of low-alcohol, flavorful beverages [31][36]. 3. Product Marketing and Channel Expansion - The company has established a robust marketing strategy that includes a diverse product range and targeted promotions, which have successfully captured consumer interest and expanded market share [10][40]. - The distribution strategy focuses on offline channels, which accounted for 86% of revenue in 2023, with a steady increase in the number of distributors [48][51]. 4. Financial Projections - The report forecasts the company's net profit to reach 1.035 billion yuan by 2026, with a projected P/E ratio decreasing from 34 to 25 over the same period, reflecting improved profitability [5][7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company is expected to realize benefits from its transformation and upgrade, highlighting its high dividend value [4] - The company anticipates a significant increase in shareholder profit for 2024, estimated between HKD 2.8 billion to HKD 3.1 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 53% to 63% [7] - The profit growth is primarily driven by the confirmation of land exchange tax benefits from the South China logistics park transformation project, successful inclusion of two logistics port projects into public REITs, and a reduction in foreign exchange losses due to optimized borrowing currency structure [7] Financial Performance and Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2022: HKD 15,529.3 million - 2023: HKD 20,523.8 million (32.2% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 14,842.7 million (-27.7% YoY decline) - 2025E: HKD 15,908.7 million (7.2% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 17,030.8 million (7.1% YoY growth) [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is projected as follows: - 2022: HKD 1,253.9 million - 2023: HKD 1,901.6 million (51.7% YoY growth) - 2024E: HKD 2,945.5 million (54.9% YoY growth) - 2025E: HKD 4,003.9 million (35.9% YoY growth) - 2026E: HKD 4,021.8 million (0.4% YoY growth) [6] - The company maintains a stable dividend policy, with a payout ratio increasing from approximately 40% (2013-2016) to around 50% (2017-2023), totaling HKD 12.4 billion in dividends during that period [7] Market Performance - The company is expected to return to a value range due to its high dividend yield, projected at approximately 8.2%, 11.2%, and 11.3% for 2024-2026 [7] - The transformation project of the South China logistics park is entering a realization phase, with land preparation providing profit increments [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in the sector [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The company is recognized as a leading manufacturer of lithium battery roller press equipment in China, with a focus on dry electrode and solid-state battery technologies to drive innovation [5][7]. - The lithium battery roller press equipment market is expected to grow significantly, reaching 6 billion RMB by 2025, with the company holding the largest market share [7][10]. - The transition from wet to dry electrode manufacturing processes is anticipated to reduce overall lithium battery production costs by 10%-15%, positioning the company favorably in the market [10][11]. - The solid-state battery market is projected to expand, with potential market size reaching 20 billion RMB by 2030, creating new opportunities for the company's equipment [11][11]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Position in Lithium Battery Roller Press Equipment - The company has achieved a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 113.18% in revenue from 2020 to 2023, establishing itself as the top player in the domestic market [10][19]. - In 2023, the Chinese lithium battery roller press equipment industry reached a scale of 4.47 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 39.6% [34]. 2. Transition from Wet to Dry Electrode Technology - The dry electrode manufacturing process is expected to become mainstream due to its efficiency and cost-saving benefits [10][11]. - The company has established a joint venture with Qingyan Electronics to enhance its technological advantages in dry electrode manufacturing [10][11]. 3. Promising Outlook for Solid-State Battery Market - Solid-state batteries are considered safer and more stable than traditional batteries, with a projected market size of 20 billion RMB by 2030 [11][11]. - The company is actively collaborating with the Sichuan New Energy Vehicle Innovation Center to develop key equipment and processes for solid-state battery production [11][11]. 4. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 164 million RMB, 194 million RMB, and 256 million RMB for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 44.2, 37.2, and 28.3 [6][8].

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 04 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月04日 华源晨会精粹 北交所 同力股份(834599.BJ)点评：预计 2024 年归母净利润 yoy+27%，静待大型 化、新能源政策落地。公司发布业绩快报，预计 2024 年实现营收 61.85 亿元 （yoy+5.53%）、归母净利润 7.78 亿元（yoy+26.54%）。公司归母净利润增长原 因为:1）2024 年不断推出或换代的大型化产品、新能源产品、无人驾驶产品等新产 品的毛利较高；2）不断优化工艺设计、优化人员配置、降本增效、规模化效应等都 取得一定效果，致使盈利能力不断提升。趋势：国内露天煤矿开采率有望提升，国 外宽体自卸车具备推广前景。看点：在刚性矿卡、新能源车型、无人驾驶车型方面 持续加大研发投入。公司属于非公路宽体自卸车的专业性厂商，近年来分红持续稳 定，具有较好成长性、优质经营质量和较高股东回报，我们看好其在国内存量替代 以及海外市场开拓方面所具备的较强竞争力。 风险提示：工程机械行业波动风险、无实际控制人风险、应收账款余额较大风险。 电子 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction decoration industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Viewpoints - Sichuan Road and Bridge is a leading enterprise in the infrastructure sector of Sichuan Province, benefiting from strong demand for infrastructure and fiscal support [5][8] - The company has a robust growth momentum, supported by the Sichuan provincial government's increasing investment in transportation infrastructure, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.89% from 2016 to 2023, significantly higher than the national average of 6.67% [5][8] - The "investment and construction integration" model adopted by Sichuan Road and Bridge enhances profitability by allowing the company to undertake large projects with minimal equity participation, avoiding multiple bidding processes [11][10] Summary by Sections Market Review - The construction decoration index increased by 0.70% during the week, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.72% [31] - The Sichuan Road and Bridge company is positioned to benefit from the growing infrastructure needs in the Chengdu-Chongqing economic circle, with significant project investments expected [8] Company Dynamics - Sichuan Road and Bridge has optimized its business structure by divesting non-core assets, which is expected to reduce losses by approximately 271 million yuan [15][14] - The company has increased its cash dividend payout ratio from 15.2% in 2019 to 50.0% in 2023, with a commitment to maintain a dividend ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027 [15][14] Financial Performance - The company’s revenue from its major shareholder, Shudao Group, has increased from 51.42% in 2021 to 62.81% in 2023, reflecting strong integration and support from the parent company [10][13] - The fixed asset investment by Shudao Group reached 1,969 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant portion allocated to highway investments [12][10] Industry Trends - The Sichuan provincial government plans to invest over 280 billion yuan in transportation infrastructure by 2025, further enhancing the growth prospects for Sichuan Road and Bridge [8][5] - The overall construction market remains robust, with several companies reporting significant contract wins and project expansions both domestically and internationally [24][29]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The heparin raw material business is under short-term pressure, while the innovative nuclear medicine pipeline continues to advance [5] - The company reported a revenue of 2.87 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decline of 12.4%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 180 million yuan, also down 12.4% [7] - The nuclear medicine business remains relatively stable, with a focus on building a comprehensive industrial chain from diagnostic to therapeutic nuclear medicines [7] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue forecast for 2023 is 3.28 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -8.58%, and for 2024, it is expected to be 2.87 billion yuan, down 12.42% [6] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to be 210 million yuan in 2023, decreasing by 31.75%, and is expected to recover to 247 million yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 34.53% [6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 0.25 yuan in 2023, increasing to 0.30 yuan in 2025 and 0.49 yuan in 2027 [6] Business Segment Performance - The raw material drug segment generated 1.26 billion yuan in revenue in 2024, down 25.2%, with heparin products alone contributing 840 million yuan, a decline of 36.3% due to price drops [7] - The nuclear medicine segment achieved 1.01 billion yuan in revenue, with key products like 18F-FDG showing a slight increase of 0.25% [7] - The formulation business reported 330 million yuan in revenue, down 18.7%, but the key product, N-acetylcysteine injection, saw a significant increase of 74.9% due to policy-driven sales volume growth [7] Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 250 million yuan in 2025, 330 million yuan in 2026, and 410 million yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 34.5%, 34.7%, and 22.0% [7] - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are projected to be 44, 33, and 27 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting the innovative potential of the nuclear medicine pipeline [7]

证券研究报告 晨会 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 03 日 投资要点： 资料来源：聚源，华源证券研究所，截至2025年03月03日 华源晨会精粹 交运 油价对制裁反应钝化，美国对伊制裁或加速——航运船舶市场系列（十）：2025 年 2 月 24 日，美国开展自该月 4 日以来针对伊朗石油销售实施的第二轮制裁，继续 加大对伊朗石油销售网络的制裁，17 家航运公司及 13 艘船舶被列入 OFAC 的特别 指定国民（SDN）名单。根据 OFAC 官方发布的表单显示，本次制裁覆盖伊朗石油 行业高层、终端运营企业、海外经纪商及运输船队。特朗普 2.0 要对伊"最大压力"， 具体措施较为谨慎。油价对新制裁反应钝化，美国或加速对伊制裁。若美国制裁加 速，伊朗原油出口量或可年底触底。2 月 4 日以来，伊朗原油出口量震荡下行。2025 年 1 月，伊朗原油出口为 150.8 万桶/日。参考"特朗普 1.0"时期，在特朗普持续 加强制裁的背景下，预计耗时 7-8 个月，即 2025 年底，伊朗原油出口或将重回 2019Q4 低位（约 35.5 万桶/日），较 2024 年下降 125 万桶/日。 风险提示： ...

证券研究报告 机械设备 | 工程机械 北交所|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 03 月 03 日 证券分析师 赵昊 SAC：S1350524110004 zhaohao@huayuanstock.com 万枭 SAC：S1350524100001 wanxiao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | | | 2025 | 年 | 02 | 28 | | 日 | 月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | | | | | 16.50 | | | | 一 年 高 / 低 | 内 | 最 | | | | | | | | | （元） | | | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 7,549.16 | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | | | | | 5,619.57 | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | | | | | 457.53 | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | | | | | ...