Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [7] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, Lundin Mining's copper production was 87,032 tons, a decrease of 0.4% quarter-on-quarter and 7.5% year-on-year. The total copper production for 2025 was 331,232 tons, exceeding the revised guidance [2][4][11] - The Candelaria mine produced 145,471 tons of copper in 2025, benefiting from increased processing due to lower ore grades. The Caserones mine achieved a record quarterly copper production of 39,612 tons in Q4 2025 [2][4] - For 2026, copper production is expected to remain stable at 310,000 to 335,000 tons, with adjustments made due to changes in mining contracts at the Candelaria mine [6][12] Production Overview - Q4 2025 gold production was 34,129 ounces (1.06 tons), down 9.6% quarter-on-quarter and 26.5% year-on-year. Nickel production was 2,174 tons, down 20.2% quarter-on-quarter but up 34.4% year-on-year [3] - The total gold production for 2025 was 141,859 ounces (4.41 tons), a decrease of 10.5% year-on-year. Nickel production for the year was 9,907 tons, an increase of 32.3% year-on-year [4][5] 2026 Guidance - The guidance for 2026 gold production is set at 134,000 to 149,000 ounces, reflecting a decrease in underground mining rates at Candelaria. The 2027 gold production is expected to increase by approximately 10,000 ounces due to higher output from the Chapada mine [8][12] - Consolidated cash costs for 2026 are projected to be between $1.90 and $2.10 per pound, consistent with 2025 guidance. This reflects improved by-product revenues, primarily from gold and molybdenum, offset by a stronger Chilean peso [8][13] Capital Expenditures - Sustaining capital expenditures are expected to total $550 million, with significant allocations to the Candelaria and Caserones projects. Expansionary capital expenditures are projected at $445 million, including costs related to the Vicuña project [9][14] - Exploration expenditures for 2026 are planned at $53 million, focusing on resource expansion in existing and nearby mining areas, particularly at the Caserones project [10]

2025Q4 铜销量为 7.09 亿磅（32.16 万吨），同比减少 28.5%， 环比减少 27.4%。 证券研究报告|行业研究报告 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 25 日 [Table_Title] 自由港 2025Q4 铜产量环比减少 29.8%至 29.03 万 吨，归属于普通股股东的净利润环比减少 39.8%至 4.06 亿美元 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 2025Q4 铜的平均实现价格为 5.33 美元/磅（9.29 万元/吨），同 比上涨 28.4%，环比上涨 13.9%。 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: 2025Q4 单位铜现场生产和运输成本为 3.05 美元/磅（5.32 万元/ 吨），同比上涨 22.5%，环比上涨 16.8%。 ► 2025Q4 生产经营情况 1）铜 2025Q4 铜产量为 6.40 亿磅（29.03 万吨），同比减少 38.5%， 环比减少 29.8%，主要反映了 2025 年 9 月份泥石流事故对 PTFI 运营的影响。 2025Q4 铜的平均单位净现金成本为 2.22 美元/磅（3.87 万元/ 吨），同比增长 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices experienced more declines than gains this week, with Hong Kong, US, and European markets all showing downturns. In contrast, the A-share market saw slight increases, with the Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.8% and 1.1% respectively. Small-cap stocks outperformed large-cap stocks, with indices such as the Micro-cap Index, CSI 500, and CSI 2000 leading gains, while the SSE 50 and CSI 300 lagged behind. In terms of sectors, cyclical and technology growth sectors performed well, with construction materials, oil and petrochemicals, steel, and chemicals leading the gains, while large financials, telecommunications, and food and beverage sectors faced declines. In the commodities market, precious metals continued to strengthen, with COMEX silver and gold prices reaching new historical highs, while domestic black commodities remained weak. The US dollar index fell below 98, and the RMB appreciated against the US dollar [1][2][3]. Market Outlook - The report maintains a "slow bull" market trend and focuses on three main investment lines. In the past two weeks, under "counter-cyclical adjustment" measures, net outflows from major A-share ETFs and a slight decline in financing balances have effectively controlled trading momentum. Market turnover remains relatively high, with strong support for small-cap growth stocks, indicating a shift into a phase of accelerated sector rotation. Looking ahead, the current period coincides with a dense disclosure of annual report forecasts, with high-growth sectors becoming the focal point of market attention. The report suggests focusing on the expansion of technology trends, price increase themes, and sectors with high growth in annual report forecasts [2][3]. Sector Allocation - The report recommends focusing on the following sectors: 1) Technology industry expansion, including AI computing, AI applications, robotics, space photovoltaics, storage, and Hong Kong internet sectors 2) Sectors benefiting from "anti-involution" and price increases, such as chemicals and non-ferrous metals 3) Industries with high growth in annual report forecasts, including electronics, machinery, and pharmaceuticals [2][3]. Structural Analysis - Currently, the market is in a window of dense annual report forecast disclosures, with high growth or improving sectors becoming the focus. As of January 24, over 900 listed companies have disclosed their 2025 performance forecasts, with an overall positive forecast rate of 38%. In specific sectors, those with high growth in annual reports (with a median year-on-year growth rate of over 100% in net profit after deducting non-recurring gains) include PCB, storage, optical modules, lithium batteries, non-ferrous metals, and pharmaceuticals. Since the beginning of the year, the Wind pre-increase index has risen by 18%, indicating that outstanding performance sectors have become one of the market's focal points [3][4]. Long-term Perspective - From a medium to long-term perspective, comparing the current A-share market to previous bull markets, this round of market activity is still in the middle stage, with a "slow bull" trend expected to continue. Compared to the peaks of the bull markets in 2007, 2015, and 2021, the CSI 300 index has only reached the mid-stage, with current index levels significantly lower than previous highs. The current risk premium of the CSI 300 is 5.27%, which is higher than the 2.5% level seen in previous bull markets. Additionally, the ratios of total A-share market capitalization to M2 and free float market capitalization to household deposits are both near historical averages, indicating that there is still ample space and opportunity for the market [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [4] Core Insights - The company has shown continuous improvement in performance, with a revenue of 9.63 billion yuan in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 0.12 billion yuan, up 1.65% year-on-year [1] - The core business is experiencing rapid growth, particularly the Avatar product line, which saw a 43% increase in sales year-on-year. The domestic market is strong due to the large-scale promotion of Avatar products [2] - The company is expanding its international market presence with a new production line for Avatar low-carbon wheels in Thailand, expected to be operational by the end of 2025. The company has secured multiple overseas projects with significant sales potential [2] - Profitability is improving, with a gross margin of 14.31% in the first three quarters of 2025, an increase of 6.07 percentage points year-on-year. R&D expenses have also increased significantly, supporting ongoing innovation [3] Financial Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 30.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.91%, and a net profit of 0.42 billion yuan, up 29.77% year-on-year [1] - The projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 40.82 billion yuan, 56.04 billion yuan, and 83.13 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 0.52 billion yuan, 2.06 billion yuan, and 3.54 billion yuan [9][17] - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve to 19.00% in 2025 and reach 20.50% in 2026 and 2027 [17] Business Development - The company is focusing on new materials and expanding into emerging industries such as robotics and low-altitude economy, leveraging its proprietary Avatar niobium micro-alloy materials [7][8] - The Avatar niobium micro-alloy material offers advantages such as high strength, low cost, and low carbon emissions, making it suitable for various applications, including intelligent robots and low-altitude flying vehicles [7][8] - The company has made significant progress in developing structural components for robots, with plans for mass production expected within the year [8]

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Recommended [5] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, silver production increased by 33.3% quarter-on-quarter to 7.28 million ounces (226.43 tons), and by 21.0% year-on-year. The total silver production for 2025 was 22.84 million ounces (710.40 tons), reflecting an 8.4% year-on-year increase [2][6] - Gold production in Q4 2025 was 19.78 thousand ounces (6.15 tons), a 7.8% increase quarter-on-quarter but a decrease of 11.7% year-on-year. The total gold production for 2025 was 74.22 thousand ounces (23.09 tons), down 16.8% year-on-year [2][3] - Zinc production in Q4 2025 was 16.8 thousand tons, up 33.3% quarter-on-quarter and 19.1% year-on-year, with total zinc production for 2025 at 55.9 thousand tons, an increase of 23.9% year-on-year [2][7] - Lead production in Q4 2025 was 8.2 thousand tons, a 32.3% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 34.4% increase year-on-year, with total lead production for 2025 at 27.0 thousand tons, up 29.8% year-on-year [2][7] - Copper production in Q4 2025 remained flat at 800 tons, but decreased by 20.0% year-on-year, with total copper production for 2025 at 3,000 tons, down 42.3% year-on-year [3][7] 2026 Guidance - The company expects silver production in 2026 to be between 25 million and 27 million ounces, and gold production to be between 700 thousand and 750 thousand ounces, with production concentrated in the second half of the year [4] - The all-in sustaining cost (AISC) for the silver segment is projected to be between $15.75 and $18.25 per ounce, while for the gold segment, it is expected to be between $1,700 and $1,850 per ounce [4] - Capital expenditures for 2026 are planned to be between $515 million and $550 million, with sustaining capital expenditures between $320 million and $340 million, and project capital expenditures between $195 million and $210 million [4][10] - The company plans to allocate approximately $132 million to $135 million for exploration activities, with a total drilling target of 600,000 meters [4]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Recommended [4] Core Insights - In Q4 2025, the production of alumina increased by 1.1% quarter-on-quarter to 2.481 million tons, while the production of primary aluminum rose by 4.3% to 604,000 tons, primarily due to the successful restart of the San Ciprián electrolytic aluminum plant in Spain [2][3] - The average realized price for third-party sales of alumina decreased by 46.4% year-on-year to $341 per ton, while the average price for primary aluminum increased by 24.7% year-on-year to $3,749 per ton [3][9] - The company's total revenue for Q4 2025 was $3.449 billion, reflecting a 15.2% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1.1% decrease year-on-year [9][11] Summary by Sections Production and Operations - In Q4 2025, bauxite production was 9.4 million tons, with third-party bauxite shipments at 2.4 million tons, showing a 41.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2][5] - The total alumina production for 2025 was 9.640 million tons, a decrease of 3.9% year-on-year, while the total primary aluminum production for 2025 was 2.319 million tons, an increase of 4.7% year-on-year [6][8] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, the net profit attributable to Alcoa was $226 million, a decrease of 2.6% quarter-on-quarter but an increase of 11.9% year-on-year [11][27] - The adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 was $546 million, reflecting a significant increase due to rising aluminum prices and the absence of certain one-time charges from the previous quarter [12][20] Future Outlook - For 2026, the alumina business is expected to produce between 9.7 million and 9.9 million tons, with aluminum production projected to be between 240,000 and 260,000 tons [23][24] - The first quarter of 2026 is anticipated to face challenges, including a $30 million negative impact on adjusted EBITDA due to routine maintenance and price declines in bauxite procurement agreements [23][24]

Group 1: Liquidity Overview - From January 19-23, the liquidity faced fluctuations due to the January tax period, with R001 rising by 11 basis points to 1.48%[1] - The liquidity pressure increased significantly during the tax period, with R007 remaining relatively stable, only increasing by 2 basis points to 1.55%[1] - After the tax period, liquidity eased, supported by a 900 billion MLF rollover, with R001 and R007 slightly declining to 1.47% and 1.54% respectively[1] Group 2: Government Debt and Payments - The net payment for government bonds from January 26-30 is expected to be 515 billion, significantly higher than the previous week's 246.5 billion, marking the highest weekly amount since the second half of 2025[5] - The structure of the payments indicates that 315 billion of government bonds were deferred from the previous week, contributing to a net payment increase from 293 million to 201.7 billion[5] - Local government bonds saw an increase of 962 billion, totaling 313.4 billion due to higher issuance volumes[5] Group 3: Interbank Certificates and Market Trends - The weighted issuance rate for interbank certificates decreased to 1.62%, down by 3.1 basis points from the previous week[41] - The net financing for interbank certificates was -916 million, with total issuance at 588.3 billion[41] - The maturity pressure for interbank certificates is expected to decrease to 431.7 billion from the previous week's 679.9 billion[6] Group 4: Market Outlook and Risks - The upcoming week (January 26-30) may see slight liquidity fluctuations due to the approaching month-end and the 515 billion government bond net payment[2] - The central bank has released a total of 1 trillion in medium to long-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos, equivalent to a 0.5 percentage point reserve requirement cut[2] - Risks include potential unexpected changes in liquidity and monetary policy adjustments due to economic data or external monetary policy shifts[7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The second - hand housing market has seen a significant increase in activity, with the year - on - year growth rate of transaction volume turning positive after 14 consecutive weeks of negative growth. Meanwhile, the new housing market continues to bottom out [1][2] - There are significant differences in the performance of the real estate market in first - tier, second - tier and third - tier cities, both in terms of transaction volume and price [3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Market Performance - **Second - hand housing market**: The transaction scale of the second - hand housing market has reached a recent high. This week, the transaction area of second - hand housing in 15 cities was 2.56 million square meters, a 12% week - on - week increase, and the year - on - year growth was 10%, ending the 14 - week decline [1] - **New housing market**: The new housing market continued to bottom out, and the transaction volume declined slightly again. This week, the transaction area of new housing in 38 cities was 1.86 million square meters, a 7% week - on - week decrease, and a 38% year - on - year decrease. The new housing transaction has had 17 consecutive weeks of year - on - year negative growth [2] 3.2 Performance in First - tier Cities - **Second - hand housing market**: Second - hand housing in first - tier cities has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the year - on - year increase has also turned positive. The combined transaction of second - hand housing in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen increased by 10% week - on - week, and the overall year - on - year growth was 10%. Among them, Shenzhen had a year - on - year increase of 30%, Beijing 10% and Shanghai 3% [3] - **New housing market**: The new housing market in first - tier cities has slowly recovered from a low level, but the year - on - year decline is still significant. This week, the transaction increased by 5% week - on - week, but the current transaction scale is only 41% of the weekly high in 2025. The year - on - year decline was 29%, with Shanghai and Guangzhou showing relatively more resistance to decline, while Beijing and Shenzhen faced greater adjustment pressure [4] 3.3 Performance in Second and Third - tier Cities - **Second - tier cities**: The performance of second - hand housing in second - tier cities is better than that of new housing, and the year - on - year growth rate of second - hand housing has turned positive. The second - hand housing transaction increased by 16% week - on - week, with a year - on - year growth of 4%. The new housing transaction decreased by 12% week - on - week, and the year - on - year decline widened to 39% [5] - **Third - tier cities**: The second - hand housing transaction in third - tier cities has exceeded the high point of last year, and the post - holiday market activity exceeded expectations. The second - hand housing transaction increased by 8% week - on - week, with a year - on - year high - growth of 30%. The new housing market was weak, with a 9% week - on - week decline, and the year - on - year decline widened to 45% [5] 3.4 Housing Price Observation - According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities has narrowed, while the year - on - year decline of housing prices in all tiers of cities has generally widened. In December, the month - on - month decline of new commercial housing prices in 70 cities was 0.4%, and the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices was 0.7%. Among them, the month - on - month decline of first - tier cities was 0.9%, narrowing by 0.2 percentage points compared with the previous month. The year - on - year decline of second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities has expanded [6] - Among first - tier cities, except for Beijing, the month - on - month decline of second - hand housing prices in other cities has narrowed. The year - on - year decline of all four cities has expanded, with Beijing having the largest adjustment range [7]

证券研究报告|海外策略周报 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 24 日 [Table_Title] 地缘问题引发本周欧美市场波动较多 1[Table_Title2] --海外策略周报 [Table_Summary] 全球市场一周主要观点:由于格陵兰岛的地缘问题影响，本周欧 美市场波动较多。本周美股市场出现震荡。由于最近一段时间 的震荡消化，TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率得到了一定程度的消 化，但是目前 TAMAMA 科技指数市盈率仍有 35.86，仍然处于 高于 35 的区间；费城半导体指数市盈率上升至 46.03，较长时 间处于 45 以上的区间；纳斯达克指数的市盈率为 41.47，仍然 处于 40 以上的区间。美股科技类资产相关估值水平仍然偏高。 由于美股科技股估值偏高，叠加特朗普关税政策的不确定性影 响，美股科技指数中期仍存在一定的回调压力。目前标普 500 席勒市盈率仍然有 40.65，仍然处于 40 以上区间。由于特朗普 的经济政策和外交政策等多方面政策的不确定性较大，且美股 估值仍然偏高，美股中金融、通讯服务、消费、工业等行业里 面一些偏高位资产中期维度仍存在震荡消化的可能性。由于格 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the Chinese banking industry, reflecting confidence in its long-term investment value amid macroeconomic development [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese banking industry is transitioning from a "scale-driven, interest-dominated" model to a "balanced, multi-driven" approach, indicating a fundamental shift in growth dynamics [2][3]. - The industry's return on equity (ROE) is currently at 9.50%, which is stable but in a phase of decline, primarily due to increased capital constraints and narrowing net interest margins [1][10]. - There is significant reliance on net interest income (39.92%) compared to international peers, while fee and commission income (7.40%) remains low, highlighting potential areas for revenue structure optimization [1][10]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The report provides a comprehensive review of the evolution of the Chinese banking industry over the past two decades, emphasizing the impact of macroeconomic cycles, policy directions, and financial regulations [13][14]. - The banking sector has experienced various phases, including the "Golden Era" (2002-2008) characterized by rapid growth, the "Silver Era" (2008-2017) driven by infrastructure and real estate, and the current "New Normal" focusing on high-quality development [17][19][21]. Performance Analysis - Profitability has been stable, but the ROE is under pressure due to systemic increases in capital adequacy ratios and declining net interest margins [2][10]. - The asset scale growth is slowing, with a notable increase in financial asset investments, while loan growth rates are tapering off [3][10]. International Comparison - The report compares the Chinese banking model with international counterparts, identifying the U.S. model as a high-performing, diversified approach, while the European and Japanese models adapt to low-interest environments with lower profitability [2][10]. Future Outlook - The future trajectory of the Chinese banking industry is expected to focus on transforming from "scale banks" to "value banks," with an emphasis on innovation and service to the real economy [3][5]. - Key growth areas include technology innovation, green finance, and inclusive finance, which are anticipated to provide new credit demand and growth points [3][5]. Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on two types of institutions: large state-owned banks and leading joint-stock banks with strong customer bases and risk resilience, as well as high-quality regional banks with distinctive features in niche markets [6][10].