Banking Sector - New loans exceeded market expectations, with March's new RMB loans reaching 3.64 trillion, an increase of 550 billion year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans to enterprises [1][2] - Social financing in March was 5.88 trillion, also surpassing market expectations, with significant contributions from government bonds and loans [1][2] - M1 growth has significantly rebounded, while M2 growth remains stable, indicating a positive trend in credit demand [2] Battery Industry - In Q1 2025, both supply and demand for batteries were robust, with a year-on-year increase of 52.8% in the installation of power batteries [3] - Total production and sales of power and other batteries in China reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 74.9% and 73.7% [3] - Exports of power and other batteries reached 61.5 GWh in Q1 2025, a 91.2% increase year-on-year, with energy storage batteries significantly contributing to this growth [3][4] Economic Data - Upcoming economic data releases for the US include unemployment claims and new housing starts, while China will report GDP growth and industrial production values [8]

交银国际研究 行业更新 电池行业月报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 1 季度电池供需两旺；受关税影响储能电池对美出口短期存波动 行业与大盘一年趋势图 资料来源 : FactSet 4/24 8/24 12/24 4/25 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 行业表现 恒生指数 陈庆 angus.chan@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 李柳晓, PhD, CFA joyce.li@bocomgroup.com (86) 21 6065 3601 2025 年 1 季度电池供需两旺，动力电池装车量同比增 52.8%。根据中国汽 车动力电池产业创新联盟数据，1Q25，中国动力和其他电池合计产量/销 量为 326.3/285.8GWh，分别同比增长 74.9%/73.7%；期内动力电池累计装 车量 130.2GWh，同比+52.8%，呈现供需两旺的局面。3 月中国动力电池装 车量 56.6GWh，同/环比+61.8%/+62.3%，其中磷酸铁锂电池装车量同/环比 +97.0%/+63.9%至 46.6GWh，占比升至 82.3%。出口方面，1 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to several companies in the battery industry, including Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan High-Tech, and others, with target prices indicating significant potential upside [1][18]. Core Insights - The battery industry is experiencing robust supply and demand, with a notable increase in the production and installation of power batteries. In Q1 2025, the total production and sales of power and other batteries in China reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, marking year-on-year growth of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The cumulative installation of power batteries in Q1 2025 was 130.2 GWh, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 52.8%. In March alone, the installation volume reached 56.6 GWh, with significant month-on-month growth [2][18]. - The report highlights the impact of tariffs on the export of energy storage batteries to the U.S., indicating potential short-term fluctuations. In 2024, China's lithium-ion battery exports to the U.S. amounted to $15.315 billion, with energy storage batteries being a major product [2][18]. Summary by Sections Production and Sales - In Q1 2025, China's total battery production and sales reached 326.3 GWh and 285.8 GWh, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 74.9% and 73.7% [2][18]. - The power battery installation volume in March 2025 was 56.6 GWh, showing a month-on-month increase of 62.3% [2][18]. Market Dynamics - The market concentration for power battery installations slightly decreased, with the top three and five companies holding 71.7% and 80.6% market shares, respectively [2][18]. - Ningde Times' market share in power battery installations decreased by 2.1 percentage points to 42.4% in March 2025 [2][18]. New Product Developments - Several companies, including BYD and Yiwei Lithium Energy, have launched new battery products aimed at electric two-wheelers and power tools, showcasing advancements in power density and charging capabilities [2][18]. Strategic Collaborations - Ningde Times has entered into a strategic cooperation agreement with NIO to support the development of NIO's battery swap network, indicating a proactive approach to market expansion [2][18]. Export Trends - The report notes that energy storage batteries are significantly affected by recent tariff increases, with expectations of shared burdens between Chinese storage companies and U.S. end-users in the short term [2][18].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5][6] - The target price remains unchanged at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price [1][5] Financial Summary - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (up 7.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 15,227 million (up 8.6% year-on-year) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (up 12.5% year-on-year) - 2025E: RMB 1,651 million (up 9.3% year-on-year) [4][10] - The company’s gross margin is expected to rebound to 16.6% in 2024, with a stable range of 16-17% projected for 2025-2027 [5][6] Share Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4]

交银国际研究 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 14 日 今日焦点 | 京东 | | | | | | | JD US | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 预计 年 | 2025 | 1 | 季度业绩增长延续 | | 4 | 季度趋 | 评级: | 买入 | | 势，利润有超预期的可能性 | | | | | | | | | | 收盘价: 美元 | | 35.58 | | 目标价: | 美元 | 62.00 | | 潜在涨幅: +74.3% | | 孙梦琪 | | | | | | mengqi.sun@bocomgroup.com | | | 预计 2025 年 1 季度业绩增长符合预期，收入同比双位数增长，带电、日 百均延续 2024 年 4 季度趋势，国补带动电脑及手机增速回暖，家电 3 月表现好于 1-2 月。外卖补贴上线，但预计投入审慎，零售利润率有提 升空间，全年利润仍将有望实现高个位数稳定增长，现价对应 2025 年市 盈率 7.6 倍，处于历史低位，维持 62 美元/240 港元目标价及买入。 | 京东物流 | | ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is expected to experience stable growth supported by an expanding management scale, with a projected management area growth of 7.4% year-on-year to 431.1 million square meters by the end of 2024 [5][6] - Profit margins are anticipated to stabilize from 2025 to 2027, with net profit expected to grow at a high single-digit rate during this period [5] - The target price for the company is set at HKD 6.30, indicating a potential upside of 18.6% from the current price of HKD 5.31 [1][5] Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: RMB 13,051 million - 2024: RMB 14,024 million (growth of 7.5%) - 2025: RMB 15,227 million (growth of 8.6%) - 2026: RMB 16,127 million (growth of 5.9%) - 2027: RMB 16,958 million (growth of 5.2%) [4][10] - Core profit estimates are: - 2023: RMB 1,343 million - 2024: RMB 1,511 million (growth of 12.5%) - 2025: RMB 1,651 million (growth of 9.3%) - 2026: RMB 1,750 million (growth of 6.0%) - 2027: RMB 1,855 million (growth of 6.0%) [4][10] - The company’s net profit is projected to increase from approximately RMB 1.51 billion in 2024 to RMB 1.86 billion in 2027 [5][10] Market Performance - The stock has shown a year-to-date change of 3.71% and has a market capitalization of approximately HKD 17,437.83 million [3][4] - The 52-week high and low for the stock are HKD 7.12 and HKD 4.05, respectively [3]

交银国际研究 2025 年经营策略及目标。公司将重点强化跑步品类，同时将新兴品类（ 如户外、网球、匹克球）作为重点培育方向。公司预期收入持平，毛利 率持平或小幅提升，净利润率预期维持在高单位数。 维持中性评级。客流量暂未出现明显回升，短期内缺乏显著催化剂。较 为保守的财务指引反映对未来的谨慎态度。 每日晨报 2025 年 4 月 11 日 今日焦点 | 李宁 | | | | 2331 HK | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 专业品类维持高速增长；管理层预期 | | 2025 | 年 | 评级: | 中性 | | 收入和毛利率表现稳定 | | | | | | | 收盘价: 港元 14.52 | 目标价: 港元 16.25↑ | | | 潜在涨幅: +11.9% | | | 谭星子, FRM | kay.tan@bocomgroup.com | | | | | 2024 年业绩符合一致性预期。2024 年，李宁实现收入 286.8 亿元，同比 增长 3.9%。毛利率提升 1 个百分点至 49.4%（符合此前管理层预期）， 主要得益于电商渠道折扣改善（贡献 0. ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is Neutral [3][12]. Core Insights - The company is expected to maintain stable revenue and gross margin performance in 2025, with a target price set at HKD 16.25, indicating a potential upside of 11.9% from the current closing price of HKD 14.52 [2][8]. - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 28.68 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.9%, primarily driven by a 7% increase in footwear sales [8][14]. - The gross margin improved by 1 percentage point to 49.4%, attributed to better discount management in e-commerce channels and enhanced efficiency in direct sales channels [8][14]. - The management announced a dividend of RMB 0.5848 per share, increasing the payout ratio to 50% [8][14]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: RMB 29.08 billion in 2025, RMB 30.81 billion in 2026, and RMB 32.86 billion in 2027, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 1.4%, 5.9%, and 6.6% respectively [5][14]. - Net profit is expected to decline slightly to RMB 2.97 billion in 2025, with a net profit margin of 10.2% [5][14]. - The company plans to optimize its product mix and maintain or slightly improve gross margins despite external uncertainties [8][14]. Performance Metrics - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be RMB 1.15 in 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.9 [5][14]. - The dividend yield is expected to be around 4.2% in 2025, increasing to 5.5% by 2027 [5][14]. - The company’s cash and cash equivalents are projected to grow from RMB 5.44 billion in 2023 to RMB 10.65 billion in 2027 [14][15].

Industry Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The automotive market showed signs of recovery in March, with retail sales of passenger vehicles increasing by 14.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.94 million units [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 51.1% in March, with retail sales of NEVs recording 991,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.4% [4] - The report highlights the positive impact of trade shows and vehicle replacement policies on sales performance in April [4] Summary by Sections Investment Ratings Overview - Companies such as BYD, Great Wall Motors, and Geely are rated as "Buy" with target prices significantly above current prices, indicating strong potential for growth [2][11] - The average price-to-earnings ratio for the covered companies is projected to be 14.5 for FY25E [2] Market Performance - In March, domestic brands outperformed the overall market, with retail sales of 1.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31% [4] - The report notes that the share of domestic brands in the retail market increased by 7.7 percentage points to 62.7% [4] New Energy Vehicle Insights - The report indicates that the export performance of NEVs is strong, with 143,000 units exported in March, accounting for 36.6% of total exports [4] - Domestic brands accounted for 87% of total vehicle exports, with a year-on-year increase of 1% [4] Future Outlook - The upcoming Shanghai Auto Show from April 23 to May 2 is expected to further stimulate automotive consumption, alongside local consumption promotion policies [4] - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks in the passenger vehicle sector, particularly BYD and XPeng Motors, due to their strong market positions and growth potential [4]

Industry Investment Rating - The automotive industry is rated as "Leading" [1] Core Insights - The automotive market showed signs of recovery in March, with retail sales of passenger vehicles increasing by 14.4% year-on-year, reaching 1.94 million units [4] - The penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) rose to 51.1% in March, with retail sales of NEVs recording 991,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 36.4% [4] - The report highlights the positive impact of trade shows and vehicle replacement policies on sales performance in April [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Sales Performance - In March, the retail sales of passenger vehicles in China reached 1.94 million units, marking a year-on-year increase of 14.4% and a month-on-month increase of 40.2% [4] - Domestic brands performed better than the overall market, with retail sales of 1.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of 31% [4] New Energy Vehicles - NEVs accounted for 51.1% of total retail sales in March, with sales of 991,000 units, reflecting a significant increase [4] - The cumulative retail sales of NEVs from January to March reached 2.42 million units, up 36.4% year-on-year [4] Export Trends - Total passenger vehicle exports in March were 391,000 units, with a year-on-year decrease of 8% but a month-on-month increase of 10% [4] - Exports of NEVs showed strong performance, with 143,000 units exported in March, representing 36.6% of total exports [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on quality stocks in the passenger vehicle sector, particularly BYD (1211 HK) and XPeng Motors (9868 HK), due to their strong growth potential [4]