股指可考虑节前防守，国 债短期看好 2025-04-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 长江期货股份有限公司研究咨询部 研究员：彭 博 执业编号：F3090600 投资咨询号：Z0021839 研究员：张志恒 执业编号：F03102085 投资咨询号：Z0021210 金融期货策略建议 重点数据跟踪 目 录 0102 01 金融期货策略建议 资料来源：iFinD、华尔街见闻、长江期货 p 核心观点：特朗普：谈成200份协议，美日协议"非常接近" ，关税不太可能再暂缓90天。中共中央政 治局会议：统筹国内经济工作和国际经贸斗争，根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策。中国一季度规模 以上工业企业利润由降转增，同比增长0.8%。中国六部门：下调离境退税起退点至200元，现金退税 限额上调至2万元。国家市场监管总局：长和港口交易各方不得采取任何方式规避反垄断审查。特朗普 虚张声势，扰动市场。会议对一季度以来的经济评价是"经济呈现向好态势，社会信心持续提振，高质 量发展扎实推进" ，表明高层对今年以来的经济表现是比较满意的，国内战略定力强，股指或震荡运行， 节前难出重大利好政策，股指较 ...

长江期货尿素&甲醇周报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字【2014】1号 【产业服务总部 | 能化产业服务中心】 研 究 员：曹雪梅 执业编号：F3051631 投资咨询号：Z0015756 张 英 执业编号：F03105021 投资咨询号：Z0021335 2025-04-28 01 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 02 甲醇：关注港口供应 或偏强震荡 目 录 01 核心观点总结 尿素：节前降价收单 等待夏季肥释放 01 4 重点关注：复合肥开工情况、尿素装置减产检修情况、出口政策、煤炭价格波动 1 市场变化：下游部分MTO装置开工恢复后，甲醇价格小幅反弹。4月25日甲醇09合约收盘价2288元/吨，较上周 上调22元/吨。现货市场太仓甲醇价格2405元/吨，较上周下调8元/吨。 2 基本面变化：供应端甲醇装置产能利用率85.06%，较上周降低2.31个百分点，周度产量190万吨。近期到港量预 计8.1万吨，无新增到港，关注甲醇到港量恢复情况。成本利润端动力煤市场交易活跃度不高，叠加市场供应充足， 场内暂无利好动力支撑，预计下周动力煤市场价格稳中偏弱运行。利润方面，煤制甲醇周度利润为1 ...

长江期货贵金属周报 避险情绪降温，价格震荡调整 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号:F3085657 投资咨询号:Z0017083 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 目录 01 行情回顾 02 周度观点 03 海外宏观经济指标 04 当周重要经济数据 05 当周重要宏观事件和政策 06 库存 07 基金持仓 08 本周关注重点 01 行情回顾：上周 特朗普表示将对中国下调关税，美联储维持独立性，市 1610 1810 2010 2210 2410 2610 2810 3010 3210 3410 3610 2023/07/03 2023/08/03 2023/09/03 2023/10/03 2023/11/03 2023/12/03 2024/01/03 2024/02/03 2024/03/03 2024/04/03 2024/05/03 2024/06/03 2024/07/03 2024/08/03 2024/09/03 2024/10/03 2024/11/03 2024/12/03 2025/01/03 2025/02/0 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The pulp market is currently facing challenges with high port inventories, weak downstream demand, and a shift from peak to off - peak season. Although the domestic consumption is currently poor, due to the large basis, the pulp price is expected to show a low - level oscillating trend [36]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1走势回顾：4月纸浆震荡走弱 - In April, the pulp price continued the downward trend from March, and the basis expanded to 995 yuan/ton due to the relatively smaller decline in spot prices [8]. 3.2供应端分析：去库进程中断 - The domestic pulp spot price significantly declined in April. The Shandong Yinxing spot price dropped by 100 yuan compared to the end of March, and the Shandong Yingwu price dropped by 260 yuan. The adjustment of broad - leaf pulp was more obvious, and the price difference between needle - leaf and broad - leaf pulp widened to 1950 yuan [12]. - The import quotation of pulp was adjusted. The Arauco Company in Chile kept the price of coniferous pulp Yinxing at 825 US dollars/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Mingxing increased by 20 US dollars/ton to 630 US dollars/ton [13]. - In March 2025, China's pulp import volume was 3.249 million tons, and the cumulative import volume from January to March was 9.639 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. The import of bleached coniferous pulp in March was 798,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5% [15]. - The domestic pulp inventory decreased rapidly in the futures market, with a total inventory of 323,937 tons, a decrease of 51,286 tons from the previous month. As of April 18, 2025, the inventory at major Chinese pulp ports was 2.069 million tons, an increase of 55,000 tons from the previous period [17]. - In March 2025, the inventory of bleached coniferous pulp in Europe was 245,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 24,700 tons. The inventory days were 27 days, the same as the previous month and an increase of 3 days year - on - year [21]. 3.3需求端分析：需求维持弱势 - In March, the year - on - year growth rate of social consumer goods retail was 5.9%, a significant increase of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. The nominal growth rate of social consumer goods retail in the first quarter was 5.0%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the fourth quarter of last year. In March, China's export amount was 313.91 billion yuan, higher than the average of the past five years and a year - on - year increase of 12.4% [27]. - From January to March 2025, the cumulative output of machine - made paper and cardboard was 38.19 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. The output in March was 14.55 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%. However, the industry's profit continued to decline and recently fell into losses [28]. - The previous price increase of downstream paper products has ended. Currently, due to weak consumption, price increases are difficult, and there may be pressure in the later stage. This week, the price of offset paper dropped by 48 yuan/ton, the price of coated paper dropped by 92 yuan/ton, and the price of white cardboard dropped by 31 yuan/ton [32]. 3.4逻辑与展望：震荡筑底 - The inventory reduction was not smooth in March, and the port inventory is still at a historical high of over 2 million tons. Downstream demand has shifted from peak to off - peak season in April, with no bright spots in paper mill operations. Since February this year, the price difference between coniferous pulp brands and between coniferous and broad - leaf pulp has been widening. Weak demand and expectations have led to a downward trend in pulp prices, but the high basis provides some support [36].

关税影响边际减弱 有色金属回补下跌缺口 有色金属基础周报 2025-04-28 主要品种观点综述 | | | 继欧洲央行降息后，美联储部分官员再发鸽派言论，市场对6月降息预期上升，特朗普政府关税立场对于铜价不利影响有所减弱，受利好驱动，铜 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 价逐步反弹修复前期下跌缺口。基本面上，铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC持续探底跌破-40美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保 | | | | 回补下跌缺口 | 持韧性，但炼厂压力在增大。在铜产出维持高位的背景下，市场去库并未受到明显影响，本周去库加快，上期所周末库存减少54858吨，创2003 | | | 铜 | 偏强震荡 | 年以来最大单周降幅。需求旺季带动了铜材产量增长，3月中国铜材产量达212.5万吨，创近几年同期新高，目前尚未看到关税战带来的明显影响。 | 区间交易 | | | 74500-78500 | 下周仍面临假期备货需求，预期去库趋势仍然延续。供应端矿端压力延续并有加大趋势，废铜进口可能受限、节前备库加快去库节奏，基本面仍保 | | | | | 持强劲。但铜价进一步上行将对需求带 ...

长江期货红枣月报 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 2025-04-28 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员： 洪润霞 执业编号:F0260331 投资咨询编号:Z0017099 黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 联系人： 钟 舟 执业编号:F3059360 顾振翔 执业编号:F3033495 库存高企&需求弱势，期价震荡偏弱 01 走势回顾：4月红枣价格震荡偏弱 02 供应端分析：供应宽松，库存高企 03 需求端分析：传统淡季，需求弱势 04 逻辑与展望：震荡偏弱 目 录 05 01 走势回顾：4月红枣价格震荡偏弱 01 4月红枣价格偏弱震荡 01 仓单和持仓分析 数据来源：IFIND、上海钢联、长江期货 Ø 截至4月25日，24/25年度红枣仓单为8237张，有效预报434张，合计8671张，较去年同期减少8095张，受原料 质量及交割要求的优化，本年度仓单量处于相对低位水平，但从红枣供应层面来看，库存水平处于高位。 Ø 4月成交量及持仓量继续下滑，但持仓量仍处于中高位水平，新季红枣主产区气温回暖，枣树逐渐进入芽期，发芽 时间较去年同期基本持 ...

玻璃：传统旺季结束 盘面继续下跌 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025/4/28 【产业服务总部 | 黑色金属团队】 研究员 姜玉龙 执业编号：F3022468 投资咨询号：Z0013681 联系人 殷玮岐 执业编号：F03120770 01 投资策略：继续下跌 行情回顾：上周玻璃期货小幅反弹后回落，整体下跌趋势仍未改变。供给方面，上周一条产线复产点火，两条产线停产冷 修，日熔量小幅波动。全国厂家库存小幅增加，华北华中库存延续前期拐头向上增长，同比来看华北高于去年，华中维持在同 期高位水平。主销区华东华南整体产销维持相对平稳水平，累库程度不大。煤炭价格继续走弱，煤制气工艺利润得到进一步改 善。需求方面，局部大型加工厂订单稍有好转，深加工订单天数增加明显，但工程订单情况仍然较差，订单天数不及往年。受 制造业优惠政策影响，小板市场成交好于大板。纯碱方面，市场消息多为检修意向，有明确计划的不多，短期内存在产量减少 预期。但结合库存水平和氨碱产能来看，向上反弹空间有限。 后市展望：沙河煤气切改计划属于利空事件。金三银四整体需求成色不佳，传统旺季即将结束，基本面缺乏推涨动力。此 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The energy and chemical market shows mixed trends, with different products facing various supply - demand situations and price movements. Some products are under pressure due to factors like over - supply and weak demand, while others have certain support from demand or cost factors [2][3][4][6][7][9]. 3. Summary by Product PVC - On April 24, the PVC主力09合约 closed at 4968 yuan/ton (-38), with different market prices in various regions. The long - term demand is weak due to the real - estate drag and export restrictions. Supply has new investment plans and high inventory, resulting in a bearish outlook. Recently, there has been some improvement in exports and domestic demand, but the market is mainly macro - driven. The price is in a weak consolidation phase, and it may be supported by strong domestic stimulus policies or further pressured by trade frictions and economic deterioration [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 24, the caustic soda主力SH09合约 closed at 2472 yuan/ton (-24). The price in the Shandong market decreased. The inventory of fixed - liquid caustic soda sample enterprises decreased, but it is still at a high level. The market is supported by new Indonesian investments and exports, but overall, supply is sufficient and demand growth is limited, so it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Key points to watch include delivery, inventory, and alumina production [3]. Rubber - On April 24, rubber showed a volatile trend. Thailand is about to start rubber tapping. The market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply. Tire production capacity utilization decreased, and rubber inventory in China showed a complex trend. The price of rubber raw materials varies in different regions. The market is still considered weak, and future demand will be affected by tariffs [4][5]. Urea - The urea主力合约 fell 0.79% to 1758 yuan/ton. Supply is stable with high daily production. Demand from compound fertilizers is in a seasonal inventory - building phase, while industrial demand is rising. The inventory of urea enterprises has changed from destocking to stocking. The 09 contract is expected to trade in the range of 1750 - 1850 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include compound fertilizer production and export policies [6]. Methanol - The methanol主力合约 rose 0.62% to 2289 yuan/ton. Supply is at a high level, and the port arrival volume is expected to increase. Demand from the olefin industry decreased slightly, and traditional demand has limited support. Inventory in both enterprises and ports increased. The 09 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation in the range of 2200 - 2350 yuan/ton, and key factors to watch include the macro - environment and production device maintenance [7][8]. Plastic - On April 24, the plastic主力合约 fell 0.90% to 7149 yuan/ton. Supply is under pressure due to expected new capacity in the second quarter. Downstream demand from the agricultural film industry declined significantly, while packaging film demand is okay and pipe demand is average. Inventory is neutral, and the 2509 contract is expected to have a short - term low - level oscillation, with a cautious bearish view. Key factors to watch include downstream demand, oil prices, and tariff negotiations [9].

棉纺策略日报 简要观点 ◆ 棉花：震荡运行 国内棉花供需基本够用，可能略趋紧，新疆轧花厂销售压力已经释放， 大约释放 60%，未点价 40%，资源集中到几个巨头贸易商手上，零散 贸易商队伍庞大，普遍吃货不够，买货难，基差不断上涨，中国以外资 源相对充裕，外盘相对弱些，外盘 CFTC 持仓，基金持仓是净空头（5 万多万多手，22.68 吨/手），产业是净多头（5 万多手），未点价，想 接货，到了交割期，基金不想接货，总会平衡，最终达到一个平衡，双 方会平仓。国内由于产业链环节产能过剩，消费难以有增量，造成内卷， 利润越来少，限制棉花涨幅。特朗普松口，欲将对中国减税，说一个月 内达成协议，短期有震动变化，继续观望。到了下半年，我们要面对几 个变数，一是新疆喀什等地区开发的盐碱地，大约 200 万亩，只能种 植棉花，其他种植作物不挣钱，会改种棉花，新疆可能增面积达 10%， 新年度棉花丰产可能到 720-750 万吨，这个是比较利空的，巴西种植 3 月 13 日已经结束，播种进度 99.97%，2024 年总产达到 370 万吨， 2025 年预计总产达到 395 万吨，对外棉压力比较大。显然目前美国贸 易战选择了 ...

黑色产业日报 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周四，螺纹钢期货价格震荡偏弱运行，杭州中天螺纹钢 3190 元/吨，较 前一日下跌 20 元/吨，05 合约基差 160（+9）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示，将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，市场预期好转；产业 层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需仍处于年内高位，去库速度较快。后市 而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近，仅仅高于长 流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计中美关税政 策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模刺激政策概率较小，产业端，现 实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，预期偏弱，短期震荡运 行为主。策略上，暂时观望为宜。(数据来源：同花顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 周四，铁矿期货价格震荡偏弱。特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸 易紧张情绪有所缓和。同时今年钢坯出口强劲，对原料形成支撑。现货 方面，青岛港 PB 粉 767 元/湿吨（-4）。普氏 62%指数 100.45 美元/ 吨（-0.65），月均 99.94 美元/吨。PBF 基差 91 元/吨（+3）。供给端： 最新澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量 2,43 ...