Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

黑色产业日报 周一铁矿盘面震荡运行，特朗普放言可能降低对华关税，国际贸易紧张 情绪有所缓和。铁水产量出现超预期增长，引发铁水见顶回落预期，同 时叠加后续出口持续性担忧。供给方面，全球发运与上周基本持平，其 中澳洲发运有所回升，巴西发运下降。到疏港量均有回落，部分压港释 放，港口库存有所回升。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，整体进口矿日耗 有所增加。本周钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极性提 高。上周末出现粗钢限产传闻，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，暂以不 实小作文看待。即便属实，五千万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难 以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面铁矿属于供需双强阶段，但即将进入传 产业服务总部 黑色产业团队 简要观点 ◆ 螺纹钢 周一，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3240 元/吨，较上周 五上涨 50 元/吨，05 合约基差 180（+15）。宏观层面，4 月 22 日， 特朗普表示将会"大幅降低"对中国的高额关税，不过国内强调目前双 方并未开展任何经贸谈判，另外，4 月 25 日政治局会议召开，没有强刺 激信号；产业层面，最近一期数据，螺纹钢表需下滑、产量持稳，去库速 度仍然较快，通常而言， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong oscillation, with suggested cautious trading within a range. Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. Nickel prices lack upward momentum due to oversupply, with a suggestion to wait and see. Tin prices are expected to have increased volatility, with suggested interval trading. [2][3][5][6] Summary by Metal Copper - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE copper main 06 contract dropped 0.08% to 77,580 yuan/ton. After the ECB's interest - rate cut and dovish remarks from some Fed officials, the market's expectation of a June interest - rate cut rose, weakening the negative impact of the Trump administration's tariff stance on copper prices. The copper concentrate spot market remained sluggish, with TC continuously hitting new lows. Despite high by - product prices supporting refined copper output, smelters' pressure is increasing. This week, inventory reduction accelerated, with the SHFE weekend inventory decreasing by 54,858 tons, the largest single - week decline since 2003. The peak demand season drove copper product output growth, with China's copper product output reaching 2.125 million tons in March, a new high for the same period in recent years. The upward space of copper prices is limited due to potential demand suppression and the negative impact of the trade war on global economic demand. [2] - In the spot market, domestic spot copper prices fell, and the market transaction was light. High premiums supported holders to hold prices, but downstream buyers were cautious. [7] - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 4,704 tons to 36,884 tons, and LME copper inventory decreased by 650 tons to 202,800 tons. [16] Aluminum - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE aluminum main 06 contract dropped 0.1% to 19,935 yuan/ton. The supply at the ore end improved, and prices declined. The weekly operating capacity of alumina increased by 150,000 tons to 87.3 million tons, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 26,000 tons to 3.423 million tons. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum decreased by 15,000 tons to 44.089 million tons. The domestic downstream processing leading enterprises' operating rate increased by 0.15% to 62.52%. The inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased. However, due to the US tariffs, the upward trend of aluminum prices is difficult to sustain, and prices are expected to oscillate and weaken. [3] - In the spot market, the transaction was light. Holders tried to hold prices in the morning, but downstream buyers were mostly on the sidelines. In the afternoon, some downstream buyers made pre - holiday low - price purchases, driving sporadic transactions. [8] - The alumina spot market transaction was light, with prices stabilizing. Holders actively sold goods, but downstream electrolytic aluminum plants had limited operating capacity and mainly made rigid - demand purchases. [9] - SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 1,902 tons to 72,590 tons, and LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 tons to 419,575 tons. [16] Nickel - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE nickel main 06 contract dropped 0.83% to 124,690 yuan/ton. The US April Markit composite PMI hit a 16 - month low, and Trump's attitude towards China's tariffs eased, leading to a recovery in market risk appetite. The Indonesian nickel usage tax rate policy was implemented this week, increasing the cost at the ore end. The pure nickel surplus situation remained, and the spot transaction was sluggish. The nickel - iron price was supported by the strong ore end, but the surplus pattern expanded. The 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production in April was 1.9075 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 13.33%. The sulfuric acid nickel price was strong due to cost push, and the loss was repaired. Overall, due to the oversupply of nickel, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is recommended to wait and see. [4][5] - In the spot market, as nickel prices fell, the willingness to make low - price inquiries and replenish inventory increased. [13] - SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts decreased by 168 tons to 24,632 tons, and LME nickel inventory decreased by 1,044 tons to 201,426 tons. [16] Tin - As of April 28, the closing price of the SHFE tin main 05 contract dropped 0.63% to 260,590 yuan/ton. The spot supply was tight, supporting prices. In March, China's refined tin output was 18,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5%. The import of tin concentrate in March was 3,466 metal tons, a year - on - year decrease of 42%. Indonesia's refined tin exports in March were 5,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 47%. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, and the inventory of domestic and foreign exchanges and domestic social inventory decreased by 409 tons. The tin ore supply is tight, but there are strong expectations for mine resumption. The price is expected to fluctuate more, and it is recommended to trade within the range of 250,000 - 273,000 yuan/ton for the SHFE tin 06 contract. [6] - In the spot market, downstream inquiries were cautious at the beginning of the week, and overall consumption needs further improvement. [14] - SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 192 tons to 8,722 tons, and LME tin inventory increased by 35 tons to 2,845 tons. [16] Other Metals - Zinc: Spot zinc prices fell. The market was well - supplied due to imported goods. Holders were reluctant to lower prices due to high premiums, while downstream buyers pressured prices for purchases and were pessimistic about the future. [10] - Lead: Spot lead prices fell. As pre - May Day inventory replenishment was coming to an end, the spot transaction was light. [11][12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is in a situation of insufficient demand and over - capacity, with a bearish outlook but influenced by domestic policies and trade conditions [2]. - The caustic soda market has sufficient supply and limited demand growth, showing a weak and volatile trend [3]. - The rubber market is expected to be dominated by weak demand and sufficient supply, remaining in a weak and volatile state [4]. - The urea market has stable supply and upcoming demand release, with prices expected to move within a certain range [6]. - The methanol market has a decrease in domestic supply, a stable downstream demand, and a differentiation in inventory, with a short - term bullish and volatile trend [8]. - The plastic market has large supply pressure and weak downstream demand, with a weak market outlook but potential support from tariffs [9]. Summaries by Product PVC - On April 28, the PVC main 09 contract closed at 4989 yuan/ton (+28), with different market prices in various regions. Long - term demand is depressed due to the real estate sector, and exports are restricted. Supply has new investment plans, resulting in a loose supply - demand pattern. Currently, it is macro - dominated, and its performance depends on policies and trade conditions [2]. Caustic Soda - On April 28, the caustic soda main SH09 contract closed at 2441 yuan/ton (+2). Last week, supply was sufficient, demand did not improve, and prices declined. The market is currently characterized by low warehouse receipts, high inventory, and limited demand growth, with a weak and volatile trend [3]. Rubber - On April 28, the rubber market was volatile. NR was weak due to upcoming harvest in Thailand, RU had some support from purchases, and BR was the weakest due to crude oil influence. The market is expected to be driven by weak demand and sufficient supply, and its performance is related to policies and tariffs [4]. Urea - The urea main contract rose 1.08% to close at 1781 yuan/ton. Supply is stable, and demand from rice and corn fertilization is expected to be released around May Day. The market is in a state of seasonal inventory accumulation, and prices are expected to move between 1730 - 1850 [6]. Methanol - The methanol main contract rose 0.96% to close at 2310 yuan/ton. The device's operating rate decreased, domestic supply shrank, downstream demand was stable, and inventory was differentiated. It is expected to be bullish and volatile in the short - term, with prices in the range of 2200 - 2350 [8]. Plastic - On April 28, the plastic main contract rose 0.20% to close at 7164 yuan/ton. Supply pressure is large, downstream demand is weak, and the market outlook is weak, but tariffs may provide some support [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The overall supply of live pigs is increasing and shifting backward, causing downward pressure on prices. However, the futures market has already factored in the weak expectations, limiting the decline. Egg prices are expected to face a short - term supply - demand imbalance after the May Day holiday, and long - term supply is likely to increase. For oils, short - term prices have upward momentum, but long - term supply increases may lead to price fluctuations. The short - term price of soybean meal is expected to be weak, while the long - term is strong. Corn prices are expected to be stable with an upward trend, but the upside is limited [1][2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Live Pigs - On April 29, the spot price of live pigs in Liaoning was 14.3 - 15 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg from the previous day; in Henan, it was 14.6 - 15.2 yuan/kg, up 0.1 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 14.2 - 14.5 yuan/kg, stable; in Guangdong, it was 15.4 - 16 yuan/kg, stable. In the short term, the supply - demand game intensifies, and prices fluctuate frequently. In the long term, from April to September 2024, supply increases, and the second quarter of 2025 still faces large supply pressure. The strategy is to sell out - of - the - money call options for contracts 07 and 09 at high prices [1]. Eggs - On April 29, the price in Shandong Dezhou was 3.1 yuan/jin, stable; in Beijing, it was 3.39 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan/jin. Short - term egg prices are affected by supply - demand factors, and there is a risk of decline after the May Day holiday. Long - term supply is expected to increase. The 06 contract is recommended to be held with a light position during the holiday, and contracts 08 and 09 are considered bearish [2]. Oils - On April 29, the US soybean oil main contract rose 1.53% to 50.46 cents/lb, and the Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 0.55% to 4058 ringgit/ton. Palm oil exports increased in April, but production also increased, and inventory is expected to rise. Domestic palm oil will face increased supply in the second quarter. Soybean oil has large supply pressure in the second quarter in China. Rapeseed oil has a tight supply in Canada, and domestic inventory is expected to decrease in the second quarter. Short - term prices are supported, but long - term supply increases may limit the upside [4][5][6]. Soybean Meal - On April 28, the US soybean 07 contract rose 3.25 cents to 1062.5 cents/bu. Short - term prices are expected to decline with increased supply, while long - term prices are expected to rise due to cost increases and weather factors. The 09 contract is recommended to be short - sold in the short term and long - bought in the long term [8]. Corn - On April 28, the purchase price of new corn at Jinzhou Port was 2230 yuan/ton, stable; the closing price was 2270 yuan/ton. The short - term spot price is supported, and the futures market fluctuates at a high level. In the long term, supply - demand tightness drives prices up, but the upside is limited. The strategy is to wait for a callback to buy [9]. Futures Market Overview - The report provides the prices, price changes, and other information of various futures and spot products on April 28 - 29, including CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, corn, etc [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton is expected to move in a volatile manner. Brazil's cotton planting in 2024 has ended, with a total output of 3.7 million tons and an expected output of 3.95 million tons in 2025, which exerts pressure on foreign cotton. The US trade war and inflation issues, along with China's deflation problem, may impact global cotton consumption. If the situation deteriorates, cotton prices may weaken further in the long - term; if the two countries reach an agreement, the situation may reverse [1]. - PTA is likely to have a short - term rebound. The suspension of tariff issues eases concerns about trade disputes, and there are issues in the Middle East and limited US crude oil production, so oil prices may rise before May Day. Supply - side maintenance and production cuts, along with good downstream polyester开工, lead to a tight market supply and a rise in spot basis [1]. - Ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. International crude oil prices are stabilizing, providing cost support. However, due to macro - environmental factors, bullish confidence is insufficient, and prices are expected to be under pressure [2][3]. - Short - fiber is rebounding from a low level. The strengthening of raw material prices and the easing of macro - sentiment support a short - term rebound, but poor terminal orders mean the long - term weakness is difficult to change [4]. - Sugar is in a volatile adjustment. In the international sugar market, short - term trade flow is tight, but there are expectations of increased production in Brazil's new season. In the domestic market, current inventory supports prices, but future supply pressure may limit the upside of futures prices [5]. - Apples are expected to strengthen in a volatile manner. Near the May Day holiday, cold - storage shipments are accelerating, inventory is at a five - year low, and prices are rising. However, attention should be paid to the new - season apple's fruit - setting situation and macro - risks [5][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Key Information - China will introduce measures to stabilize employment and the economy and promote high - quality development, including measures in employment support, foreign trade stability, consumption promotion, effective investment expansion, and creating a good development environment [7]. Fundamental Information Tracking of Each Variety PTA - As of April 28, the PTA spot price rose to 4,570 yuan/ton. Before the end of April, the offer for main - port delivery and warehouse receipts was around a premium of 15 or a discount of 2 to 05. In May, the main - port delivery for 09 had a premium of 80 - 140 in transactions. The industry's supply - demand and cost support are good, but the basis weakened in the afternoon [9]. - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate in China reached 80.04%, a significant increase compared to the previous week and the same period last year. Some devices restarted as scheduled [11]. Cotton - On April 28, the China Cotton Price Index (CC Index) was 14,244 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The cotton yarn index (CY Index C32S) was 20,490 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. On April 28, 2025, the total cotton warehouse receipts were 12,439 (- 54) sheets [10]. - In March 2025, the retail sales of US clothing and clothing accessories increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the inventory increased year - on - year and decreased month - on - month, and the inventory - to - sales ratio increased [10]. - Recently, the cotton - growing areas in Argentina have generally cleared up. The picking progress in some main - producing areas is around 24% - 30%, and some areas have started processing, with centralized processing expected to begin in mid - May [10]. Ethylene Glycol - China's total ethylene glycol capacity utilization rate is 61.93%, with a slight decrease. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased, while that of coal - to - ethylene glycol increased [15]. - China's weekly ethylene glycol production was 549,700 tons, a slight increase. There were both maintenance and restart of devices, and demand in other industries declined slightly [15]. Short - fiber - As of the 24th, the weekly short - fiber production in China was 161,400 tons, an increase of 3.86% from the previous week, and the average capacity utilization rate increased [15]. - As of the 24th, the average polymerization cost of polyester short - fiber decreased slightly, and the industry's cash flow decreased significantly, with profits shrinking [15]. Sugar - An Indian industry insider expects the country's sugar exports in the 2024/25 season to be 60 - 700,000 tons, lower than the allowed amount [15]. - As of the week of April 23, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped increased [15]. - It is expected that in 2025, the sugar - beet planting area in Ukraine will decrease by 17% compared to 2024, leading to a significant decline in production and exports [15]. Apple - As of April 24, 2025, the cold - storage inventory of apples in the main producing areas in China was 3.0998 million tons, a decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is at a near - five - year low [16]. - In Shandong and Shaanxi apple - producing areas, different grades of apple prices are provided [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The supply pressure of oils remains, and the rebound of futures prices is limited. The supply of soybean meal is gradually improving, and the price is oscillating downward [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Soybean Meal: Supply Gradually Improving, Price Oscillating Downward - **Futures and Spot End**: As of April 25, the spot price in East China reached 3,800 yuan/ton, up 630 yuan/ton weekly. The spot basis strengthened significantly, with the basis in North China soaring from 200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to over 1,000 yuan/ton. The futures prices of M2505 and M2509 did not show strong upward trends due to delivery logic and expected increases in arrivals and operation rates later [7]. - **Supply End**: The April USDA soybean supply - demand report showed that the US soybean yield remained at 50.7 cents/bushel, and the ending stocks were lowered to 375 million bushels. The estimated planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season is 83.5 million acres, with a downward trend in production. In South America, Brazil's harvest is nearly complete, putting pressure on prices, while Argentina's production forecast remains at 49 million tons. In China, the supply - demand situation tightened recently due to oil mills' soybean shortages, but the arrival pressure from May to July is high, and the supply will gradually become loose. After September, domestic soybeans will enter a destocking cycle [7]. - **Demand End**: In 2025, the pig inventory is expected to increase by 4%. The demand for soybean meal in feed is expected to increase by more than 4% year - on - year. However, the market is bearish on future prices, and the purchasing sentiment is poor. As of April 18, the national soybean inventory of oil mills increased to 4.2591 million tons, while the soybean meal inventory decreased significantly to 125,500 tons [7]. - **Cost End**: The planting cost of US soybeans in the 24/25 season is 1,030 cents/bushel, and that of new - crop Brazil soybeans is 915 cents/bushel. The calculated cost of soybean meal before March 2025 is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the cost during the Brazilian soybean supply season is 2,730 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is at a high level in the same period of history, ranging from 100 to 200 yuan/ton [7]. - **Market Summary**: In the short term, the supply - demand tension in some regions remains, and the price decline is limited before the supply pressure arrives. From May to July, as arrivals increase, the price will gradually decline with the accumulation of soybean and soybean meal inventories. The 09 contract is under short - term pressure from arrivals but may be bullish in the long - term due to weather disturbances and tariff - induced increases in import costs [7]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: In the short term, go short on the M2509 contract when the price is high, paying attention to the resistance around 3,100 - 3,150 yuan/ton. In the long - term, go long on the 09 contract when the price is low, paying attention to the support around 2,900 yuan/ton [7]. 2. Oils: Supply Pressure Remains, Futures Price Rebound Limited - **Futures and Spot End**: As of the week of April 25, the main 09 contract of palm oil rose 244 yuan/ton to 8,376 yuan/ton, the main 09 contract of soybean oil rose 230 yuan/ton to 7,934 yuan/ton, and the main 09 contract of rapeseed oil rose 285 yuan/ton to 9,506 yuan/ton. The corresponding spot prices also increased, while the basis of palm oil decreased, and the basis of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased [81][83]. - **Palm Oil**: In April, the production in Malaysia increased. The international soybean - palm oil price spread turned positive, stimulating imports from China and India. The export volume from April 1 - 25 increased. The inventory increase in Malaysia in April may be small. In China, the import volume in April is expected to be less than 100,000 tons, and the consumption is also low, keeping the inventory below 400,000 tons. However, from May, the arrivals will increase, and the price may decline from May to July [81]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the 24/25 season, Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 90%, and the export volume may exceed 100 million tons. Argentina has also started harvesting. However, the potential increase in the US biodiesel blending standard is beneficial for future soybean demand. The expected decrease in the 25/26 US soybean planting area and planting disruptions support the soybean price. In China, although the soybean arrivals have increased, strict customs inspections have led to shortages in some oil mills before early May. The inventory of soybean oil has decreased to 650,000 tons, but it will accumulate again from May to July. In the long - term, the price may first decline and then rise from July to September [81]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is not affected by US - Canada tariffs, and the demand for crushing and export is strong. The old - crop inventory is decreasing, and there may be drought problems in the 25/26 planting season. In China, the rapeseed oil inventory is at a high level of 830,000 tons, and the supply pressure in April is large. There are rumors of increased imports of Australian rapeseed, which may slightly ease the future supply shortage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term [81]. - **Weekly Summary**: In the short term, the three major oils in China have upward momentum due to various factors, but the supply improvement is expected, and the price rebound is limited. In the long - term, the price of soybean and palm oil may decline in the second quarter and then rise due to concerns about the US new - crop soybean planting area and potential weather speculation [81]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Be cautious about chasing up the 09 contracts of soybean, palm, and rapeseed oils. Pay attention to the resistance levels of 7,800 - 8,000, 8,500, and 9,600 yuan/ton respectively. Wait for the price to decline in the second quarter before going long. Palm oil and soybean oil are expected to be relatively strong [81].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to China's 100% tariff increase on Canadian rapeseed oil and meal on March 20 and the ongoing anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed, China's imports of Canadian rapeseed products in 2025 are not active, and the domestic rapeseed supply is expected to tighten. However, if Australian rapeseed is allowed to be re - imported, it will narrow the supply tightening amplitude but not change the overall trend. [1][2][4] - After resolving quarantine issues, as long as there is import profit, the window for importing Australian rapeseed may open. The expected bumper harvest of EU rapeseed and the entry of Canadian rapeseed into the EU will reduce the EU's demand for Australian rapeseed, increasing the quantity available for export to China. [2][14][24] - Currently, it is the trough period of Australian rapeseed export, so China may purchase less Australian rapeseed before September and focus on the new crop after September. [2][19][24] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs Australia Rapeseed Industry Introduction - Australia's rapeseed production has shown a fluctuating upward trend in the past decade. It reached a record high of 8273,000 tons in 2022 and then slightly declined to 5,940,000 tons in 2024. The growth cycle is from April - June for sowing, July - September for the key growth period, and after October for harvesting. [5] - Australia is the world's second - largest rapeseed exporter. Its rapeseed industry is export - oriented, with most of the production directly for export. The annual export volume is 400 - 500 million tons. The main export destinations are the EU, UAE, Pakistan, and Japan, which accounted for 86% of the total export volume in 2024. [1][6][7] - China stopped importing Australian rapeseed in 2021. Although there has been news of a possible restart, the import volume of Australian rapeseed oil has always been limited due to its low export volume and China's preference for other sources. [11] Australia Rapeseed Export Capacity to China Analysis - The current price of Australian rapeseed is the lowest globally. If China allows its re - import and there is a crushing profit, China may buy ships of Australian rapeseed. [12] - Before Australian rapeseed can enter China, quarantine issues need to be resolved. There are two possible paths: Australia upgrades equipment to reduce impurity levels or China relaxes quarantine standards. [13] - China needs to compete with other countries for Australian rapeseed. However, the expected bumper harvest of EU rapeseed and the entry of Canadian rapeseed into the EU will reduce the EU's demand for Australian rapeseed, increasing the quantity available for export to China. [14][17] - The 15 - ship rapeseed purchase may be distributed over the remaining 8 months of 2025. China may prefer to buy the new crop after September. Australian rapeseed is difficult to fully replace the gap left by Canadian rapeseed, and the re - import of Australian rapeseed can only slightly ease the tight domestic rapeseed supply. [19] - In 2025, China's rapeseed supply is expected to change from loose to tight, and the inventory of rapeseed and rapeseed oil is expected to decline. The re - import of Australian rapeseed cannot change the overall tight supply trend. [20]

铜周报：关税风险缓和，基本面支撑铜价 2025-4-28 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 张 桓 执业编号：F03138663 咨询电话：027-65777106 汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号: Z0021167 01 主要观点策略 02 宏观及产业资讯 03 期现市场及持仓情况 目 录 04 基本面数据 01 主要观点策略 01 主要观点策略 供给端：铜精矿现货市场延续低迷态势，TC持续探底跌破-40美元，虽受益于副产品价格高位，精铜产出依然保持韧性，但炼厂压 力在增大。3月精炼铜产量为124.8万吨，同比增加8.6%，4月电解铜产量同比预计仍有增长。 需求端：3月需求旺季带动了铜材产量如期增长。3月中国铜材产量达212.5万吨，创近几年同期新高。银四最后一周小幅下周面临 五一小长假，下游假期备货需求预计增加。 库存：截至4月24日，SMM全国主流地区铜库存较4月21日下降1.48万吨至18.17万吨，较4月17日下降5.17万吨，实现连续8周周 度去库，目前较年内高位回落了19.53万吨，较去年同期的40.47万吨低22.30万吨。临近五一假期前将有 ...

碳酸锂周报 供应压力仍存，价格延续偏弱 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色中心】 资深研究员：李 旎 执业编号：F3085657 投资咨询号: Z0017083 2025/4/28 需求端：4月整体排产预计环比持平。3月，我国动力和其他电池合计产量为118.3GWh，环比增长18.0%，同比增长54.3%。动力和 其他电池合计出口23.0GWh，环比增长8.8%，同比增长75.3%。动力和其他电池销量为115.4GWh，环比增长28.3%，同比增长 64.9%。以旧换新政策出台和政策端新能源车购置税的延期也有望持续支撑中国新能源车市场销量的较快增长。 库存：本周碳酸锂库存呈现累库状态，工厂库存周内增加2860吨至32560吨，市场库存减少3722吨，广期所库存增加2233吨。 ⚫ 策略建议： 从供应端来看，碳酸锂产量稳增，3月产量环比增加24%，近期锂盐厂稳定生产，3月锂精矿进口量环比减少6%，3月锂盐进口环 比增加47%，预计后续南美锂盐进口量保持高位。从需求端来看，受储能和电动车终端增速的带动，下游需求较好，但美国对等关税 政策落地对锂电池出口形成负面 ...