spsf 总量月报 关注政策宽松带来的交易机会 总量月报第 3 期 50%关联方规则是美国出口管制趋严的又一体现，未来还需警惕高科技行业 的制裁风险、关税风险和以"国家安全"为名的 232 调查。 我们认为，"关联方规则"将对特定地区（如俄罗斯等国家）和高科技行业 （半导体、航空航天、人工智能和其他军民两用技术等高科技行业的公司） 产生较大影响。 固定收益：配置价值凸显，交易关注超跌反弹 今年以来，财政政策较为积极，9-12 月财政赤字仍有 1.5 万亿元同比扩张空 间，年内可能不会追加预算赤字。但是财政部表示将"提前下达部分 2026 年新增地方政府债务限额，靠前使用化债额度"，财政政策力度有可能进一 步加大。和财政政策相比，货币政策更加灵活。4 季度货币政策有可能再次 宽松，10 月底 11 月初可能出现降息降准的时间窗口。 国内政策：预告重要会议，后续政策可期 9 月国家政策延续了 7 月中央政治局会议"落实落细"的方向，在宏观经济 及产业政策方面持续发力。尤为值得重视的是，9 月中央政治局会议公布了 二十届四中全会召开时间，"十五五"规划精神呼之欲出。 海外政策：解读 BIS 50%关联方规则——"严 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5][10] Core Viewpoints - The recent announcements from the Ministry of Commerce regarding export controls on rare earth materials and technologies are aimed at protecting national security and interests, particularly against military applications [2][3] - The new regulations include strict controls on the export of rare earth materials with Chinese components and related technologies, which are expected to significantly impact the supply chain and market dynamics [4] - The report anticipates that by 2025, the contribution of secondary resource recycling to rare earth supply will reach 27%, indicating a new high and a complete control over the supply side [4] Summary by Sections Export Control Policies - The export control measures target specific rare earth materials and technologies, requiring exporters to obtain licenses for items containing at least 0.1% Chinese-origin components [2] - The controlled materials primarily include heavy and medium rare earth metals such as samarium, dysprosium, gadolinium, and others [2] Impact on Industry - The report suggests that the comprehensive control over the supply side will limit the potential for sudden increases in supply, thereby supporting long-term bullish sentiment on the rare earth and magnetic materials sectors [4] - Recommended companies in the upstream rare earth materials include Northern Rare Earth, China Rare Earth, and Shenghe Resources, while midstream magnetic material companies include Jinli Permanent Magnet and Zhenghai Magnetic Materials [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market characteristics of technology and non - ferrous metals in overseas markets during the National Day holiday are expected to continue in the A - share market after the holiday. In October, during the disclosure period of the third - quarter reports, attention should be paid to convertible bond opportunities in sub - sectors with performance realization, including optical modules, storage, lithium - battery, and non - ferrous metals sectors [1][10][15]. - In October, the convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 30% - 37%. On one hand, it is difficult for the valuation to break through the end - of - August high; on the other hand, the convertible bond valuation has support due to the upward - trending A - share market [2][16]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 10 - month Convertible Bond Outlook: Valuation Range Fluctuation, Optimistic about Technology & Non - ferrous Metals - During the National Day holiday, there were continuous catalysts in the overseas AI chain. South Korea's two memory chip giants reached a preliminary supply agreement with OpenAI's Star Gate project, and AMD signed a chip supply agreement with OpenAI, which is expected to increase the company's annual revenue by tens of billions of dollars. Meanwhile, the "shutdown" of the US government pushed up the gold price, and COMEX gold broke through the $4000 mark [1][10]. - In October, attention should be paid to convertible bond opportunities in sub - sectors with performance realization, such as optical modules, storage, lithium - battery, and non - ferrous metals sectors. Specific individual bonds are recommended, including Jiayuan Convertible Bonds in the optical module sector, Tianci, Yiwei, Dianhua, and Guanyu Convertible Bonds in the lithium - battery sector, and Bo 23 Convertible Bonds in the non - ferrous metals sector [1][15]. - In October, the convertible bond market's 100 - yuan premium rate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 30% - 37%. The end - of - August convertible bond valuation was relatively high, and it is difficult to break through this high in October, but there is support for the valuation due to the upward - trending A - share market [2][16]. 3.2 September Market Review 3.2.1 Equity Market - In September, the A - share market fluctuated upward, with the Shanghai Composite Index once challenging the 3900 - point mark. The market trading was active, with an average daily trading volume of 2.42 trillion yuan, an increase of 109.38 billion yuan compared to August. The growth and cyclical styles were dominant, while the financial and consumer styles performed poorly [20]. - The lithium - battery sector led the rise, and the non - ferrous metals sector also performed well. The military and large - financial sectors performed poorly [25]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market - In September, the convertible bond market showed a fluctuating trend. The monthly increase of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was +2.0%, underperforming the Wanquan A Index. The trading volume of the convertible bond market decreased compared to August, with an average daily trading volume of 79.76 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.52 billion yuan [28]. - In terms of industry performance, the convertible bonds of the electronics, non - ferrous metals, and automobile sectors led the rise. Individual bonds such as Jize, Guanzhong, and Huicheng Convertible Bonds led the increase, while Borei, Tianlu, and Tongguang Convertible Bonds led the decline [33]. 3.3 Convertible Bond Valuation - In September, the convertible bond valuation showed a range - fluctuating characteristic. The end - of - September 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market was 33.9%, an increase of 1.71 percentage points compared to the end of August, and was at a high percentile level since 2018 and 2021 [36]. - Different par values had corresponding conversion premium rates, which also increased compared to the end of August and were at high percentile levels [36]. 3.4 Convertible Bond Supply and Demand 3.4.1 Convertible Bond Supply - In September 2025, the issuance scale of convertible bonds increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. Two new convertible bonds were issued, with a total scale of 3.5 billion yuan [49]. - As of September 30, two convertible bonds waiting to be issued obtained regulatory approval, with a total scale of 5.479 billion yuan. Five public convertible bond board plans were added, with a total scale of 4.199 billion yuan [53][55]. 3.4.2 Convertible Bond Demand - The share of the Convertible Bond ETF decreased in September. As of September 30, the share decreased by 342 million units to 4.484 billion units, and the circulation scale decreased by 3.426 billion yuan to 60.573 billion yuan [57]. 3.5 Clause Tracking 3.5.1 Redemption - As of September 30, 16 convertible bonds were confirmed for forced redemption, 11 were not to be redeemed, and 10 might trigger forced redemption [61]. 3.5.2 Downward Revision - As of September 30, six convertible bonds were confirmed for downward revision, 20 announced no downward revision for the time being, five proposed downward revision (three of which had completed the downward revision), and 10 might trigger downward revision [62].

Group 1 - The report highlights the impact of high-interest deposit repricing on the banking sector, indicating that the inversion between the 10-year government bond yield and bank funding costs may gradually disappear [1][7][11] - It estimates that the total amount of fixed-term deposits maturing in the second half of this year will be approximately 59.52 trillion yuan, with expected declines in funding costs of about 8.3 basis points this year and 9.8 basis points in 2026 [10][11] - The report suggests that the repricing of high-interest deposits could alleviate the pressure of yield inversion, thereby enhancing banks' willingness to invest in bonds [11][12] Group 2 - The report on the TOC fintech sector indicates that the market is expected to benefit from improved liquidity and risk appetite, with technology and traffic remaining core competitive drivers [3][24] - It notes that the total revenue of six major TOC financial information service companies reached 12.182 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 47% [25] - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals and platform advantages, such as Dongfang Caifu and Xiangcai Co., which are expected to gain market share [26] Group 3 - The report on Youjia Innovation forecasts revenue growth from 1 billion yuan in 2025 to 2.16 billion yuan in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 53% [4][28] - It emphasizes the company's strategic partnerships with major automotive manufacturers, which are expected to accelerate project delivery and enhance market presence [29] - The report highlights the potential of the L4 autonomous minibus business as a significant growth driver for the company [29] Group 4 - The report on the energy sector indicates that China Power Construction has signed 3,579 energy and power projects with a total contract value of 516.24 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [51] - It notes that the company's overseas business has also seen rapid growth, with new contracts amounting to 179.841 billion yuan, up 21.9% year-on-year [52] - The report projects that the company will achieve a net profit of 12.301 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a growth of 2.4% [53] Group 5 - The report on Sanxia Energy highlights that the company has a cumulative installed capacity of 49.9366 million kilowatts, with wind power accounting for 22.9702 million kilowatts, representing a market share of 4.01% [55] - It indicates that the company's solar power business has also shown strong growth, with a cumulative installed capacity of 25.9055 million kilowatts [56] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for the company, projecting a net profit of 6.125 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a slight increase [57] Group 6 - The report on Miniso indicates that the company's domestic revenue grew by 11.4% in the first half of 2025, with a focus on optimizing store quality rather than quantity [58] - It highlights the strategic shift towards self-owned IP development, which is expected to enhance brand value and customer loyalty [58] - The report anticipates that the company's self-owned IP will contribute significantly to future revenue growth, targeting a GMV of 1 billion yuan for the year [58]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Federal Reserve's resumption of interest rate cuts may lead to increased foreign investment in China's export-advantaged assets, particularly in high-end manufacturing sectors such as new energy, chemicals, and pharmaceuticals [1][13] - The "anti-involution" policy in China is expected to enhance the financial returns of the manufacturing sector, with a focus on high-end manufacturing capital expenditure (CAPEX) expansion since 2019, which solidifies global export competitiveness [2][14] - The report suggests that cross-border capital is accelerating its return to China, leading to a "re-inflation bull market" as China's net export scale rises and the RMB enters a long-term appreciation cycle [3][15] Group 2 - The report anticipates a shift in the A-share bull market towards consumption-driven growth, moving from an investment-driven model to one where consumption becomes the primary economic driver [4][16] - It highlights a potential "ice-fire conversion" in market dynamics, where technology sectors may lead the rally, followed by export-oriented high-end manufacturing, and eventually consumer sectors [5][17] Group 3 - The report recommends a stock portfolio for October 2025, including companies such as Dongfang Tower (Chemicals), Huafeng Aluminum (Non-ferrous), China Hongqiao (Non-ferrous), Luoyang Molybdenum (Non-ferrous), Dongfang Tantalum (Non-ferrous), Xinnengda (Electric New), Betta Pharmaceuticals (Pharmaceuticals), Yifeng Pharmacy (Pharmaceutical Retail), Bai'ao Intelligent (Military), Hikvision (Computers), and Luxshare Precision (Electronics) [6][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's four core businesses, including smart home appliance control, industrial power, industrial automation and intelligent equipment, and new energy and rail transit, have all achieved varying degrees of growth. The industrial automation business reported sales revenue of 389 million yuan in the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.90%. The new energy and rail transit business generated sales revenue of 508 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150.94%, accounting for 10.87% of total revenue [1][5] - The company is leveraging its core technology platform based on power electronics and control technology to achieve cross-business synergy and support rapid expansion into emerging fields such as AI server power supplies, 5G communication power supplies, and thermal management for new energy vehicles [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 520 million yuan, 912 million yuan, and 1.311 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, representing year-on-year growth rates of 19.2%, 75.4%, and 43.7%. Corresponding EPS is expected to be 0.95 yuan, 1.67 yuan, and 2.39 yuan for the same years [3][9] - Revenue is expected to grow from 6.754 billion yuan in 2023 to 16.577 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 23.3%, 21.0%, 25.1%, 30.3%, and 24.4% for the years 2023 to 2027 [3][9] Market Opportunity - The global AI server power supply market is projected to grow from 2.846 billion USD in 2024 to 60.810 billion USD by 2031, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 45.00% from 2025 to 2031. The company's products are well-positioned to capture this growth, having already received small batch orders for AI server power supplies as of August 29 [2][3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][11] Core Views - The company has signed 3,579 new energy and power projects with a total contract value of 516.24 billion RMB from January to August 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.3% [1] - The overseas business has shown rapid growth, with new contracts amounting to 179.84 billion RMB, up 21.9% year-on-year [2] - The company has achieved significant growth in its electricity investment and operation business, with a total installed capacity of 35.16 million kilowatts as of June 2025, including wind power capacity of 10.83 million kilowatts, solar power capacity of 13.04 million kilowatts, and hydropower capacity of 7.09 million kilowatts [3] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The company signed 692 new hydropower projects with a contract value of 123.54 billion RMB, up 58.88% year-on-year, and 811 new wind power projects with a contract value of 166.26 billion RMB, up 61.27% year-on-year [1] - In August alone, the company signed 24 projects with individual contract values exceeding 500 million RMB, an increase of 2 projects from the previous month [1] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits attributable to shareholders of 12.30 billion RMB, 13.50 billion RMB, and 13.89 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 2.4%, 9.8%, and 2.9% [3][4] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for the same years are 0.71 RMB, 0.78 RMB, and 0.81 RMB [3][4] Key Data - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 608.44 billion RMB in 2023 to 733.55 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.5% [4] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 7.4 in 2023 to 6.9 in 2027, indicating a potentially undervalued stock [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5] Core Views - The company's revenue from the power grid business has shown steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 15.62% in the first half of 2025, reaching 4.02 billion yuan, while the revenue from the power grid automation business increased by 2.21% to 1.726 billion yuan [1][5] - The company possesses leading technology in various fields such as transmission and transformation protection and automation systems, distribution and utilization systems, and power electronics applications, achieving significant growth in bidding amounts for major projects with the State Grid and Southern Grid [1][2] - The data center sector is expected to open new growth avenues, with the company winning multiple projects in regions like Northwest and North China, and its solid-state transformer products are well-suited for next-generation data center architectures [3] Financial Summary - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 813 million yuan, 969 million yuan, and 1.105 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 13.6%, 19.1%, and 14.1% [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.98 yuan, 1.16 yuan, and 1.33 yuan for the same years, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 19.6, 16.4, and 14.4 [4][9] - Revenue is forecasted to grow from 5.751 billion yuan in 2023 to 11.591 billion yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 13.2%, 20.9%, 19.0%, 17.6%, and 19.1% over the years [4][9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [6] Core Views - The company has a strong position in offshore wind power and a sufficient reserve of onshore large-scale projects, with a total installed capacity reaching 49.93 million kilowatts as of H1 2025 [1][2] - The company is focusing on developing large-scale renewable energy bases and offshore wind power projects during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [3] Summary by Sections Installed Capacity and Market Share - As of H1 2025, the company added 2.1807 million kilowatts of installed capacity, with a cumulative total of 49.9366 million kilowatts. The wind power capacity reached 22.9702 million kilowatts, accounting for 4.01% of the national market share, while solar power capacity reached 25.9055 million kilowatts, accounting for 2.35% of the national market share [1][2] Wind Power Business - The wind power business generated revenue of 9.947 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 2.24%. The total power generation from wind power was 25.061 billion kWh, an increase of 8.69% year-on-year. The company has 5.3335 million kilowatts of wind power projects under construction [2] Solar Power Business - The solar power business reported revenue of 4.453 billion yuan in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 3.16%. The total power generation from solar power was 13.911 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%. The company added 1.6426 million kilowatts of solar projects in H1 2025 [2] Financial Projections - The projected net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 6.125 billion yuan, 6.198 billion yuan, and 6.253 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 1.2%, and 0.9% [3][4]

Group 1: Blood Dialysis Industry - The blood dialysis industry in China is experiencing stable growth, with a market size CAGR of 5.67% from 2019 to 2023, and an expected CAGR of 21.52% from 2023 to 2027 [6][7] - The demand for dialysis is driven by the rapid increase in the number of ESRD patients, which rose from 57.9 thousand in 2018 to 91.7 thousand in 2023 for blood dialysis [6][7] - Investment recommendations focus on three main lines: companies with high overseas potential (e.g., Shanyishan, Baolite, Weigao Blood Purification), companies with a complete product matrix (e.g., Weigao Blood Purification, Shanyishan), and companies with strong single product competitiveness (e.g., Weigao Blood Purification, Shanyishan, Jianfan Biological) [6][7] Group 2: Neurovascular Medical Devices Industry - The neurovascular medical device market in China is projected to grow from 4.9 billion yuan in 2019 to 37.1 billion yuan by 2030, with a CAGR of 20.2% [10][11] - The number of ischemic stroke surgeries in China is expected to increase from 45.8 thousand in 2019 to 881.3 thousand by 2030, reflecting a CAGR of 30.8% [10][11] - Recommended companies include Xianjian Technology, Xinmai Medical, and Huatai Medical, focusing on various aspects of neurovascular intervention [10][11] Group 3: Computer Industry - Tencent's launch of the Hunyuan Image 3.0 model is expected to significantly enhance AI application development and cloud computing demand [13][15] - The model integrates multiple modalities, improving semantic understanding and knowledge reasoning capabilities, which will drive the growth of AI applications across various industries [13][15] - Related investment targets include IDC, server technology, and computing chips [15] Group 4: Electronics Industry - Siwei's revenue for the first half of 2025 is projected to reach 3.786 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 54.11%, driven by significant growth in automotive electronics [16][18] - The company is expanding its presence in high-end applications, particularly in the automotive sector, where revenue increased by 108% year-on-year [17][18] - Investment forecasts for Siwei suggest revenues of 8.06 billion, 10.22 billion, and 12.23 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027 [18] Group 5: Textile and Apparel Industry - Laofengxiang's revenue declined by 16.52% in the first half of 2025 due to high gold prices, but the company is focusing on product innovation and brand upgrades to enhance competitiveness [24][26] - The company is expanding its marketing network, with a total of 5,550 outlets by mid-2025, and is implementing strategies for online and offline integration [25][26] - Future earnings per share are projected to be 3.39, 3.71, and 4.01 yuan from 2025 to 2027, indicating a potential recovery [26]