1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for rapeseed oil is "oscillation" [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of rapeseed oil in the spot market is sufficient, but the supply in the far - month is pessimistic due to factors such as low arrivals of Canadian rapeseed, low old - crop stocks of Russian rapeseed, difficulty in large - scale procurement of Australian rapeseed in the short term, inability to import Canadian rapeseed oil, and reserve rotation in the second half of the year. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is extremely scarce at present but is expected to improve significantly after May [3]. - The total demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Household consumption is relatively rigid, but catering consumption is poor. Rapeseed oil has a substitution phenomenon in blended oil due to its poor cost - performance. Future demand for rapeseed oil is difficult to increase significantly, with limited increments concentrated in seasonings and hot - pot bases [3]. - The market is generally optimistic about the basis of 09 rapeseed oil. The main logic is that the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed restricts far - month rapeseed procurement, and the amount of rapeseed oil that can be supplied to China before the harvest of Russian new crops is limited. The unilateral trend of the futures price depends on market sentiment and policies, and rapeseed oil is preferably used as a long position in oil arbitrage [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Background and Purpose - After China launched an anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed in September 2024 and imposed a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal in March 2025, the market's attention to rapeseed oil has increased. The uncertain result of the anti - dumping investigation restricts enterprises' willingness to purchase far - month rapeseed, and future rapeseed arrivals will decline significantly. To understand the downstream consumption, the views and procurement of oil mills and traders on far - month rapeseed oil, and the international supply of rapeseed oil, the research team visited the Sichuan - Chongqing region [11]. 3.2 Research Summary - **Supply**: The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is sufficient, but the far - month arrivals of Canadian rapeseed will decrease. Russian rapeseed stocks are low, and the monthly import volume of Russian rapeseed oil to China may drop to 50,000 - 60,000 tons in the next few months. Dubai's supply is stable with little increment, and Australian rapeseed is difficult to make up for the gap. In addition, the Sichuan - Chongqing region needs to rotate in rapeseed oil reserves in the second half of the year [16]. - **Demand**: The demand for rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is flat or slightly decreasing year - on - year. Catering demand is poor due to the high cost - performance of soybean oil, while household demand is rigid. The demand is mainly stock - based, with limited increments in seasonings and hot - pot bases. The market expects rapeseed oil to start destocking in June. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce but is expected to improve after May [17]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The market is optimistic about the basis of domestic 09 rapeseed oil due to supply concerns. The price trend of rapeseed oil depends on the result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The market's acceptance of rapeseed oil prices is increasing, and demand is not completely suppressed by price. After September, the supply may improve, but import policies are still crucial. The price of soybean oil is expected to decline slightly after May. Strategies such as widening the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil, rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and soybean oil and palm oil can be considered [19]. 3.4 Research Content - **April 22, morning, Trader A in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 400,000 - 500,000 tons. The current rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 230,000 tons, and destocking is expected to start in June - July. The company mainly purchases from the East, South, and Hainan regions. It currently buys Dubai rapeseed oil at 6,000 tons per month. The far - month rapeseed purchase is restricted, and the company is optimistic about the price of rapeseed oil [20][21][23]. - **April 22, morning, Trader B in Chengdu**: The company's annual trade volume of oil and meal is about 300,000 tons. It is optimistic about the improvement of the soybean meal market after May Day. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 265,000 tons, and the company mainly purchases from Guangxi [26][27][30]. - **April 22, afternoon, Trader C in Chengdu**: The company's annual feed output is nearly 800,000 tons. The supply of rapeseed meal is poor, and the company has adjusted the formula. The company believes that rapeseed meal may have a correction opportunity. The rapeseed oil inventory in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is under pressure in March - May, and destocking is expected to start in June. The import of Russian rapeseed oil may be 40,000 - 60,000 tons per month from April to August [32][33][38]. - **April 23, morning, Trader D in Chengdu**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is 90,000 - 100,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 700,000 tons per year and is decreasing. The company is optimistic about the 9 - month basis of rapeseed oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region and believes that the spread between rapeseed oil and soybean oil will face pressure after rising to 1,700 - 2,200 yuan [37][40][43]. - **April 23, afternoon, Oil Mill E in Chengdu**: The company mainly processes domestic rapeseed and corn germ. The output of domestic rapeseed has increased this year, but the quality is average. The rapeseed oil consumption in Sichuan is about 100,000 tons, and the demand is generally declining [44][45][46]. - **April 24, morning, Oil Mill F in Deyang**: The company's annual rapeseed oil trade volume is about 500,000 tons. The company believes that the supply of far - month rapeseed oil is scarce and is gradually purchasing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the 09 basis [47][48][50]. - **April 25, morning, Oil Mill G in Chongqing**: The company mainly refines and packages rapeseed oil. The annual trade volume is about 150,000 tons. The rapeseed oil consumption in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is about 700,000 - 800,000 tons per year. The company's Chongqing rapeseed oil inventory is about several thousand tons, and destocking may start in June [51][53][54]. - **April 25, afternoon, Oil Mill H in Chongqing**: The company's planned annual trade volume of oil this year is 300,000 tons. The supply of soybean oil in the Sichuan - Chongqing region is currently scarce, and the company is preparing inventory for June - September. The company is optimistic about the future supply of soybean oil and the basis of rapeseed oil if the anti - dumping investigation continues [56][57][59].

日度报告——综合晨报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，豆油厂 开机小幅上升 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-28 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美官员：美乌矿产协议即将完成 最新消息美乌之间的矿产协议即将达成，这可能表明距离俄乌 协议进了一步，但是不确定性继续存在。 宏观策略（黄金） 黄金投机净多仓增加 油厂开机小幅上升 上周国内进口大豆成本增加，盘面榨利转差。供需错配下豆粕 现货市场短期仍较为紧张，但上周五现货已经有所回落，豆粕 5 月期价也大幅下挫，后期供需面将趋于改善。 有色金属（铜） 五矿资源一季度铜总产量同比增长 76% 短期宏观因素对铜价限制减弱，且基本面阶段支撑相对较强， 预计铜价短期或震荡偏强运行，策略角度继续关注逢低做多机 会。 能源化工（原油） 尼日利亚一大型汽油制造装置进行维修 综 周五金价震荡收跌一度跌破 3300 美金，表现偏弱，在贸易问题 没有进一步升级以及美国资产企稳回升后，短期资金获利了结。 美联储金融稳定性报告显示关税是当前最大风险。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 政治局会议：适时降准降息 报 政治局会议表述并未超出市场预期，总体来看，政策保持了定 力 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Industry investment rating for lithium carbonate: Sideways [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, lithium salt prices fluctuated downward, with multiple lithium salt contracts and spot prices showing declines. Although some salt factories plan to reduce production and overseas producers may adjust pricing and shipping, the demand lacks unexpected performance, and the Chinese market for lithium carbonate will still accumulate inventory from April to May. Given the high channel inventory and uncertain supply - side drivers, the price is likely to be weak in the second quarter. A bearish approach is recommended, and short - selling on rebounds has higher certainty [2][3][12] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Salt - end reduction has limited support, and the market has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - From April 21 - 25, lithium salt prices declined. For example, the closing price of LC2505 decreased by 2.8% to 68,400 yuan/ton, and battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate spot prices dropped by 2.3%. The price of lithium hydroxide also slightly decreased. The market fell below 70,000 yuan at the beginning of the week and remained at a low level. Despite salt - end production reduction plans and potential overseas adjustments, the demand is flat, and inventory will still accumulate. A bearish strategy is recommended for the second quarter [11][12] 2. Weekly industry news review - CATL launched the sodium - ion battery brand "Naxin", and its first product will be mass - produced in June [15] - In March 2025, China imported 534,500 physical tons of spodumene, a 6% decrease from February. Imports from different countries showed different trends [15] - The Weilasituo Lithium Polymetallic Mine in Chifeng obtained a mining license. It has large reserves and plans a two - phase development with a total investment of 5 billion yuan [15] - Australian lithium miner Liontown Resources' production and shipments increased in Q1 2025, and its operating costs decreased [16] - The Chilean regulator approved the joint - venture plan between Codelco and SQM to develop lithium resources in the Atacama Salt Lake [17] 3. Monitoring of key high - frequency data in the industrial chain 3.1 Resource end: The spot price of lithium concentrate continues to decline - The spot price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1.9% week - on - week to $793/ton [12] 3.2 Lithium salt: The main contract has fallen below the 70,000 - yuan mark again - Multiple lithium carbonate futures and spot prices decreased. For example, the closing price of the GFEX lithium carbonate futures near - month contract (LC2505) decreased by 2.8% to 68,380 yuan/ton [12] 3.3 Downstream intermediates: Quotes decline - The prices of downstream materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and cobalt - acid lithium showed different degrees of decline or slight increase [12] 3.4 Terminal: In March, China's new - energy vehicle production and sales increased significantly year - on - year - Although the specific data in the text is not detailed, it is emphasized that there was a high year - on - year increase in production and sales [40]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ten - year Treasury bond futures main contract shows a long - signal at the daily level and the weekly level, with a neutral signal at the monthly level. The CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53]. - The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17, the net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, the long - term hedging signal persists, and there is no arbitrage signal. The net values of the 5 - year and 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are also provided [2][45]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Multivariate Asset Market Quick View 3.1.1. Market Price Changes - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,295.06, up 0.56%. The CSI 1000 rose 1.85% to 5,939.50, while the SSE 50 fell 0.33% to 2,648.81. Among Treasury bonds, the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract decreased by 0.21% to 108.77. Commodity indexes generally showed an upward trend, with the Agricultural CFCI rising 1.54% to 158.43. In the international market, the Nasdaq Composite Index soared 6.73% to 17,382.94, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.75% to 65.83 [12]. 3.1.2. Sino - US Treasury Bond Interest Rates - US Treasury bond real yields decreased across different maturities from April 21 - 25, 2025. For example, the 10 - year real yield decreased from 2.20% to 2.02%. Chinese policy - based financial bond (CDB) and fixed - rate Treasury bond yields showed minor fluctuations during the same period [14][15]. 3.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Multivariate Assets 3.2.1. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Stocks - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the CSI 1000, the Nasdaq to the FTSE 100, the Nasdaq to the German DAX, and the Nasdaq to the Nikkei 225 are presented, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different stock indexes [17][19][21]. 3.2.2. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Commodities - The ratios of the CSI Commodity Index to the Metal Index, the Energy Index, the Agricultural Product Index, and the Chemical Index are provided, indicating the relative strength - weakness relationships among different commodity indexes [24][27][29][31]. 3.2.3. Strength - Weakness Relationship among Treasury Bonds - The ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds to US Treasury bonds and the long - short - term ratios of Chinese Treasury bonds are shown, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationships among different Treasury bonds [33][34]. 3.2.4. Stock - Bond Strength - Weakness - The ratios of the CSI 300 to the Chinese Treasury bond net - price index and the Nasdaq to the US Treasury bond core bond are presented, showing the relative strength - weakness relationship between stocks and bonds [36][37]. 3.2.5. Bond - Commodity Strength - Weakness - The relationship between the copper - gold ratio and the 10 - year Treasury bond futures and the relationship between the gold - oil ratio and the US Treasury bond core bond are analyzed, reflecting the relative strength - weakness relationship between bonds and commodities [41][42]. 3.3. Multivariate Asset Signal Tracking and Simulated Net Value 3.3.1. One - Week Review of Multivariate Asset Signals - From April 21 - 25, 2025, the corn main contract had a long - signal at the 60 - minute level on April 21, and the 10 - year Treasury bond main contract had long - signals at the 60 - minute level every day during this period [1][44]. 3.3.2. Multivariate Asset Simulated Net Value - **Treasury Bond Strategy Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the Treasury bond arbitrage portfolio is 4.0, with no arbitrage signal and a persistent long - term hedging signal. The net values of the 5 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2241 and 1.2065 respectively, and those of the 10 - year Treasury bond spot and hedge portfolios are 1.2736 and 1.2563 respectively [45]. - **Multivariate Asset Portfolio Simulated Net Value Tracking**: The net value of the multi - asset portfolio is 2.17. The initial capital is 10 million RMB, with 10 lots per futures transaction. The latest signals show that the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract has long - signals at the daily and weekly levels and a neutral signal at the monthly level, while the CSI 1000 has a short - signal at the daily level and neutral signals at the weekly and monthly levels [2][53].

周度报告——新能源汽车 雷克萨斯独资工厂落地上海 ★ 动态跟踪 行业数据跟踪方面，2025 年第 16 周（2025 年 4 月 14 日至 4 月 20 日），国内乘用车零售 38.1 万辆，同比增长 9.0%；新能源乘 用车零售 20.3 万辆，同比增长 27.9%；新能源渗透率为 53.2%。 今年以来，国内乘用车累计零售 600.5 万辆，同比增长 3.1%；新 能源乘用车累计零售 290.6 万辆，同比增长 33.0%；累计新能源 渗透率为 48.4%。4 月全月来看，乘联会预计新能源零售 90 万， 渗透率 51.4%。 新 能 企业端，雷克萨斯作为第二家外商独资车企正式落地上海金山， 工厂投资额 146 亿元，首期拿地 1,692 亩，预计于 6 月开工，初 期年产能约 10 万辆，第一台车将于 2027 年生产下线。 源 与 新 全球来看，3 月全球新能源汽车销量同比增长 33.4%达 149 万辆， 1-3 月累计同比增长 35.4%达 360 万辆。3 月全球新能源渗透率为 24.2%，环比增加 1.5 个百分点。 料 ★ 投资建议 中国新能源汽车行业发展由政策驱动转向市场驱动，23 年新 ...

★风险提示： [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金跌 0.2%至 3319 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.23%，通胀 预期升至 2.27%，实际利率降至 1.96%，美元指数涨 0.24%至 99.4， 标普 500 指数涨 4.59%，人民币小涨，内外维持溢价。 国际金价波动加大，周中一度冲高至 3500 美元/盎司创历史新高， 随后多头资金获利了结，金价高位回落最终收跌。4 月以来的强 势上涨国内资金发挥的力量较大，上周叠加 5 月黄金期权到期， 末日轮的炒作也放大了市场波动，国内黄金 ETF 及两融余额、期 货市场以及现货市场均出现资金流入，助推了本轮黄金上涨行情， 关税问题是主要的触发因素。在特朗普政府表示中美之间的巨额 关税无法持续，后续会通过谈判降低一部分极端关税后，市场的 避险情绪有所降温。同时，特朗普表示无意解雇鲍威尔，要求降 低利率，也缓解了市场对美联储独立性受到干预的担忧，美元指 数和美股美债均出现反弹，美元崩溃论也暂时告一段落。 经济数据显示关税施压经济前景，4 月美国制造业 PMI 从 50.2 回 升至 50.7，好于预期的 49.1，但服务业 P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Alumina: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints - The expectation of a decline in Guinea's ore prices has increased, while alumina prices have stabilized in the short term. Although the supply and cost of alumina still face pressure, the price valuation is not high and some negative factors have been priced in. The futures price may gradually enter a bottoming stage [15]. Summary by Directory 1. Alumina Industry Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices were on a downward trend last week. The含税 price of Shanxi ore (58/5) was 700 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; that of Henan ore (58/5) was 668 yuan/ton; and the delivered含税 price of Guizhou 60/6 bauxite remained at 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down. The supply of Shanxi ore remained tight, and the output stability of复产 mines and existing mines was to be observed. The成交 price of Guinea ore (45/3) fell below 80 US dollars/dry ton, exceeding expectations. The market was in an obvious oversupply situation, and most downstream enterprises had little spot procurement. GIC said the dispute would be resolved soon. During the period, 4.607 million tons of new ore arrived, including 3.523 million tons from Guinea and 1.056 million tons from Australia. The Cape shipping freight from Guinea to China was stable at 20 US dollars/ton [12]. - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina rose last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2850 - 2920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from the previous week; the domestic weighted index was 2886.6 yuan/ton, up 22.8 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 2950 - 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. Due to domestic large - scale maintenance and capacity increase, market pessimism eased slightly, and the enthusiasm of traders to sell at a large discount decreased. The northern market traded 41,000 tons of alumina spot this week, an increase of 26,000 tons from the previous week, and the weighted成交 price was 2871 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton. There were no public成交 reports in the overseas market. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 2998 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 105 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, the overall operating level did not fluctuate significantly. The national alumina production capacity was 109.92 million tons, with 87.3 million tons in operation, an increase of 150,000 tons from the previous week, and the operating rate was 79.9%. In terms of demand, Sichuan Guangyuan Hongchang Sheng Aluminum resumed production, with a current operating capacity of 120,000 tons. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.923 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons week - on - week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, unchanged week - on - week [13]. - **Inventory**: As of April 24, the national alumina inventory was 3.423 million tons, a decrease of 26,000 tons from the previous week. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum enterprises fluctuated slightly, with some enterprises increasing inventory and some decreasing. The inventory of alumina enterprises decreased significantly, and the domestic trade inventory in the Bohai Rim port area increased. The overall social alumina inventory showed a phased decline [14]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the SHFE were 282,523 tons, a decrease of 13,258 tons from the previous week. Although the previous oversupply situation had improved, the pressure of new capacity release remained, and the cost side began to loosen. Overall, the supply, demand, and cost of alumina still faced pressure, but the price valuation was not high, and the futures price might enter a bottoming stage [15]. 2. Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain This Week - Two batches of spot alumina in the Shandong region had different成交 prices. 0.2 million tons of spot alumina was traded at an ex - factory price of 2870 yuan/ton, and 0.4 million tons was traded at a price of 2950 yuan/ton from a Shandong alumina factory to a Henan aluminum factory [16]. - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Chongqing completed maintenance ahead of schedule but continued to operate at a reduced capacity due to high production costs, with the current operating level at 3.7 million tons, 900,000 tons lower than the full - production level before maintenance [16]. - An alumina enterprise in Henan shut down two low - temperature production lines, involving a production capacity of 400,000 tons, due to high ore prices and increased losses [16]. 3. Monitoring of Key Data in the Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain 3.1 Raw Materials and Cost Side - The section includes charts on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][20][23][26][28][30][32]. 3.2 Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance - The section includes charts on domestic provincial alumina spot prices, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the ratio of SHFE electrolytic aluminum to alumina futures, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The data shows the historical changes in the operating capacity of alumina and electrolytic aluminum and the supply - demand gap [37][39][40][44]. 3.3 Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The section includes charts on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, SHFE alumina warehouse receipts and positions, and the ratio of SHFE alumina positions to warehouse receipts [47][50][52][54][56].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [4] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon industry chain is under pressure due to weak supply and demand. The production enthusiasm of silicon factories is significantly reduced, and the demand side shows no improvement. [1][2][11][12] - For industrial silicon, pay attention to the marginal changes on the supply - side, such as large - scale production cuts and the resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season. [1][3][11] - For polysilicon, focus on whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. [2][3][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2506 contract of industrial silicon increased by 30 yuan/ton to 8780 yuan/ton. The spot price of East China oxygen - blown 553 decreased by 250 yuan/ton to 9600 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 silicon decreased by 300 yuan/ton to 8800 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon increased by 775 yuan/ton to 38390 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N - type re -投料 decreased by 700 yuan/ton to 40300 yuan/ton. [9][10] 3.2 Supply and Demand Are Weak, and the Pressure on the Silicon Industry Chain Remains High - **Industrial silicon**: The futures price fluctuated this week. Liaoning reduced 1 industrial silicon furnace, and Inner Mongolia reduced 2. The weekly output was 72,400 tons, a decrease of 0.93% month - on - month. The social inventory decreased by 10,000 tons, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 3800 tons. The demand is weak, and the purchase price of polysilicon manufacturers for industrial silicon powder is between 9400 - 9700 yuan/ton. [11] - **Organosilicon**: The price dropped significantly this week. The overall operating rate was about 62.4%, an increase of 0.68 pct month - on - month. The weekly output was 41,300 tons, an increase of 0.73% month - on - month, and the inventory decreased by 2.45% month - on - month. The supply - demand imbalance remains unchanged, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. [11][12] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price recovered slightly this week. The spot trading of silicon materials was limited this week, and large - scale transactions are expected after May Day. The production schedule for April is expected to be around 100,000 tons, and the production schedule for May is revised down to around 100,000 tons. As of April 20, the inventory of Chinese polysilicon factories was 251,000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons month - on - month. The downstream raw material inventory is about 110,000 tons. The demand is weak, and the spot pressure remains high. [2][12] - **Silicon wafers**: The price continued to fall this week. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models dropped to 1.15, 1.35, and 1.50 yuan/watt respectively. The inventory continued to be reduced in April. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 54GW. [13] - **Battery cells**: The price continued to fall this week. The prices of M10, G12N, and G12 battery cells dropped to 0.285, 0.28, and 0.30 yuan/watt respectively. After the demand declined, some specifications of battery cells began to accumulate inventory. [13] - **Components**: The price continued to fall this week. After the rush - installation period, the price of distributed components dropped rapidly. Affected by the adjustment of the quota by the association and lower - than - expected demand in May, the production schedule is expected to be reduced to about 56GW. [14] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial silicon**: The price has fallen below 9000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to partially take profits on previous short positions, not to go long on the left - hand side. Consider bottom - fishing on the right - hand side after clear signals such as large - scale production cuts, less - than - expected resumption of production in Southwest China during the flood season, and obvious outflow of warehouse receipts appear. Also, pay attention to the cash - flow risks of large factories. [3][15] - **Polysilicon**: After the price drop, pay attention to whether the southwest production capacity resumes production as scheduled during the flood season and whether there are production cut plans for other capacities. Before the large - scale generation of warehouse receipts, the disk is more reasonably valued at a premium for delivery. The operating range of the PS2507 contract may be 35,000 - 39,000 yuan/ton. For the PS2511 contract, it is advisable to value it at a discount for delivery, and pay attention to the PS2511 - PS2512 reverse spread opportunity. [3][15] 3.4 Hot News - On April 23, 2025, Yongchang Silicon Industry's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project's No. 4 electric furnace successfully produced the first furnace of industrial silicon. [16] - On April 21, the US imposed anti - dumping and counter -vailing duties on solar cells and components from four Southeast Asian countries. [16] - In the first quarter, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity was 59.71GW, a year - on - year increase of 30%. [16] 3.5 Industry Chain High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial silicon**: Includes data on the spot price of oxygen - blown 553 and 99 silicon, weekly production in different regions, social inventory, and sample factory inventory. [18][21][23] - **Organosilicon**: Covers data on the spot price, weekly profit, factory inventory, and weekly output of DMC. [28][29] - **Polysilicon**: Involves data on the spot price, weekly gross profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of polysilicon. [32][35] - **Silicon wafers**: Contains data on the spot price, average net profit, factory weekly inventory, and enterprise weekly output of silicon wafers. [37][39][41] - **Battery cells**: Includes data on the spot price, average net profit, export factory weekly inventory, and enterprise monthly output of battery cells. [43][45][47] - **Components**: Covers data on the spot price, average net profit, factory inventory, and enterprise monthly output of components. [52][57][60]

Report Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Viewpoints - The US economy faces increasing stagflation pressure, and the US dollar is expected to remain volatile. The market is significantly affected by factors such as tariff policies, Federal Reserve policies, and geopolitical risks. It is recommended to hold safe - haven assets to hedge against uncertainties [33][34] Summary by Directory 1. Global Market Overview This Week - Market risk appetite slightly increased. Most stock markets rose, and most bond yields declined. The US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Gold prices fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce, the VIX index dropped to 24.8, the spot commodity index rose, and Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel [1][8] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rose. The S&P 500 rose 4.59%, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.56%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.74%, and the Nikkei 225 rose 2.81%. Tariff issues continued to disrupt the market, and the Fed's stance became more dovish. US stock earnings season started well, providing some support. However, economic prospects were under pressure, and overseas stock market expectations were weak. The domestic stock market aimed for stability, but market risk appetite was hard to continuously increase [9][10] 2.2 Bond Market - Global bond yields mostly declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped to 4.23%. Fed officials' dovish attitude and the suspension of tariffs reduced the pressure on US Treasuries, but the downward space was limited. The Chinese 10 - year Treasury yield slightly rose to 1.66%, and the Sino - US interest rate spread narrowing. The domestic bond market was affected by multiple factors and showed an oscillating trend [16][21] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index rose 0.24% to 99.47, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance. Offshore RMB rose 0.24%, the euro fell 0.25%, the pound rose 0.13%, the yen fell 1.05%, the Swiss franc fell 1.42%, the real rose over 3%, and some other currencies also had different performances [28] 2.4 Commodity Market - Gold fell 0.2% to $3319 per ounce. After a significant increase during the week, it fell due to factors such as potential Sino - US trade negotiations. There was still room for short - term correction, but the long - term upward logic remained. Brent crude oil fell 0.9% to $67.5 per barrel. Commodities oscillated and rose overall, but their demand prospects were under pressure due to the US dollar's rebound [31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US economic stagflation pressure is rising. The Fed's褐皮书 showed that businesses were increasingly worried about tariffs, and consumer confidence and inflation expectations on Friday showed obvious stagflation characteristics. The US - China tariff game and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation both had limited progress, and market uncertainty remained high [33][34] 4. Next Week's Important Event Tips - There are a series of important economic data releases and events, including the US April Dallas Fed business activity index, US housing price index, China's April official manufacturing PMI, the eurozone's first - quarter GDP, the US April non - farm payrolls, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate meeting [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for treasury bonds is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core View of the Report - The core contradiction in the market is between the difficulty of disproving the broad - money expectation and the high uncertainty of the timing of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts. This contradiction will not change in the short term, determining that the bond market will remain in a high - level oscillation pattern. In the coming week, the market is mixed with both long and short factors, and there are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions. It is recommended to adopt a quick - in - and - quick - out strategy [2][15] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Review and Views 3.1.1 This Week's Trend Review - From April 21st to April 27th, treasury bond futures oscillated at a high level. On Monday, with the LPR rate unchanged and the stock market performing strongly, treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Tuesday, after the tax period, the capital market marginally loosened, and treasury bond futures oscillated upward. On Wednesday, Trump's softened attitude led to an expected decline in future tariff levels, and market risk appetite recovered, causing treasury bond futures to oscillate downward. On Thursday, the expectation of trade - war easing was marginally revised downward; in the morning, treasury bond futures strengthened, but in the afternoon, the broad - money expectation declined slightly, and treasury bond futures oscillated downward. On Friday, in the morning, treasury bond futures oscillated narrowly, and in the afternoon, due to the Politburo meeting policy not exceeding market expectations, treasury bond futures rose rapidly. As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend [1][14] 3.1.2 Next Week's View - The market will continue to oscillate with mixed long and short factors. The broad - money expectation is difficult to be completely disproven as the probability of April's manufacturing PMI falling short of expectations is high, but some long - position investors may choose to hold cash during the holiday to avoid trade - related risks. There are trading opportunities for both long and short positions, and the strategy should be quick - in - and - quick - out. Specific strategies include: long - position traders can look for opportunities around the release of PMI data, short - position traders can focus on changes in long - position investors' risk - aversion sentiment; pay attention to the positive - arbitrage opportunities of short - term varieties; wait for the right - hand signal for the curve - steepening strategy; and pay attention to the opportunity of narrowing the TS06 - 09 spread [2][15][19] 3.2 Weekly Observation of Interest - Bearing Bonds 3.2.1 Primary Market - This week, 70 interest - bearing bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 6757.83 billion yuan and a net financing amount of - 802.48 billion yuan, changing by - 1004.24 billion yuan and - 7235.36 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 47 local government bonds were issued, with a total issuance volume of 1911.23 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1625.12 billion yuan, changing by - 94.94 billion yuan and + 387.94 billion yuan respectively compared to last week. 530 inter - bank certificates of deposit were issued, with a total issuance volume of 9782.40 billion yuan and a net financing amount of 1876.00 billion yuan, changing by + 2693.40 billion yuan and + 1918.30 billion yuan respectively compared to last week [24] 3.2.2 Secondary Market - As of April 25th, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bonds were 1.48%, 1.55%, 1.66%, and 1.93% respectively, changing by + 3.39, + 3.74, + 1.14, and + 2.30 basis points compared to the previous weekend. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds compressed by 0.93bp to 20.97bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrowed by 2.60bp to 11.45bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread widened by 1.16bp to 26.46bp. The yields of 1 - year, 5 - year, and 10 - year policy - bank bonds were 1.57%, 1.61%, and 1.69% respectively, changing by - 0.14, + 2.50, and + 1.40bp compared to the previous weekend [28] 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures 3.3.1 Price, Trading Volume, and Open Interest - As of April 25th, the settlement prices of the continuous main contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were 102.310, 105.975, 108.805, and 119.820 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.126, - 0.250, - 0.195, and + 0.100 yuan compared to the previous weekend. The trading volumes of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week were 40403, 51627, 66295, and 103436 lots respectively, changing by + 3563, - 7758, - 1285, and + 126 lots compared to the previous weekend. The open interests were 142952, 203371, 222757, and 128694 lots respectively, changing by - 3119, - 1582, + 1923, and + 4351 lots compared to the previous weekend [37][40] 3.3.2 Basis and IRR - It is recommended to adopt the positive - arbitrage strategy for short - term varieties. The IRR of short - term varieties has been running at a relatively high level. After the capital market gradually loosens at the end of Q1, the cost - performance of the positive - arbitrage strategy has become more prominent. The reasons for the relatively stable positive - arbitrage opportunities in short - term varieties are that although the capital market has marginally loosened, the negative carry problem still exists, and the basis center is difficult to rise. Also, the core trading logic in the market is the broad - money expectation. Once the easing policy is implemented, the short - term varieties have a large potential for supplementary growth, and the logic of going long on short - term varieties is relatively clear. Compared with spot bonds, going long on futures saves more capital. In mid - to - early April, the net basis of TS showed a compression trend [44] 3.3.3 Inter - Delivery and Inter - Variety Spreads - As of April 25th, the inter - delivery spreads of the 2506 - 2509 contracts of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures were - 0.254, - 0.290, - 0.165, and - 0.270 yuan respectively, changing by - 0.070, - 0.025, - 0.045, and - 0.180 yuan compared to the previous weekend [47] 3.4 Weekly Observation of the Capital Market - This week, the central bank conducted 8820 billion yuan of reverse - repurchase operations in the open market. With 8080 billion yuan of reverse - repurchases maturing, the net reverse - repurchase investment was 740 billion yuan. As of April 25th, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.66%, 1.64%, 1.57%, and 1.64% respectively, changing by - 5.29, - 5.67, - 9.30, and - 1.60bp compared to the previous weekend. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase this week was 6.33 trillion yuan, 98.31 billion yuan more than last week, and the overnight proportion was 74.73%, lower than the previous week's level [51][52][54] 3.5 Weekly Overseas Observation - The US dollar index strengthened slightly, and the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds declined slightly. As of April 25th, the US dollar index rose 0.36% to 99.5836 compared to the previous weekend, the yield of 10 - year US treasury bonds was 4.29%, down 5 basis points from the previous weekend, and the yield spread between Chinese and US 10 - year treasury bonds was inverted by 263 basis points [62] 3.6 Weekly Observation of High - Frequency Inflation Data - This week, industrial product prices rose across the board. As of April 25th, the Nanhua Industrial Product Index, Metal Index, and Energy and Chemical Index were 3539.28, 6148.72, and 1656.60 points respectively, changing by + 38.06, + 68.33, and + 13.04 points compared to the previous weekend. Agricultural product prices showed a mixed trend. As of April 25th, the prices of pork, 28 key vegetables, and 7 key fruits were 20.78, 4.58, and 7.72 yuan/kg respectively, changing by - 0.07, - 0.07, and + 0.24 yuan/kg compared to the previous weekend [66] 3.7 Investment Recommendations - There are short - term trading opportunities for both long and short positions [67]