策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 5 月 15 日 证券分析师：王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：徐亚 策略点评 关注券商主题化演绎行情 短期建议关注仍有演绎空间的券商行情，指数是否存在所谓"上行风险"是 需要关心的问题，此外更需要关心行情斜率。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 （8621）20328506 ya.xu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300521070003 《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》中所强调的业绩比较基准约束作 用，对于主动偏股型基金而言更多为中长期维度的合理引导，当前低配 行业的加速演绎，更类似于长逻辑投资思路下的短周期发酵，这比较符 合"主题投资"的特征，因此当前低配行业的加速演绎更类似一轮主题 化演绎行情。 这种主题化演绎行情，根据其演绎速度可能导致两种截然不同的市场 走势：一是延续"权重搭台"，随即"成长唱戏"，那么后续行情演 绎的节奏和空间都将为良性。第二种是向低配的权重行业/公司 ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In April, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.22 trillion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 4.73 trillion yuan compared to March, slightly below the consensus expectation of 1.26 trillion yuan[2] - The stock of social financing grew by 8.70% year-on-year, up 0.37 percentage points from March, but slightly below the expected 8.80%[2] - New RMB loans in April were 884 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.465 trillion yuan year-on-year and a decrease of 3.74 trillion yuan from March[2] Group 2: Impact of U.S. Tariffs - The weak demand for RMB loans in April was primarily influenced by the impact of U.S. tariff policies, affecting corporate operating expectations[2] - Government bond financing increased by 1.07 trillion yuan year-on-year, indicating a rapid implementation of proactive fiscal policies[2] - The April data reflects a recovery trend in residential housing demand, despite the overall financing environment being impacted by external factors[1] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Deposits - M2 growth in April was 8.0%, up 1.0 percentage points from March, while M1 growth was 1.5%, down 0.1 percentage points from March[2] - Total deposits decreased by 440 billion yuan in April, with household deposits down by 1.39 trillion yuan and corporate deposits down by 1.33 trillion yuan[2] - The decline in demand for short-term loans and residential loans indicates a weak financing demand in the real economy, influenced by external trade conditions[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [1][4]. Core Views - The company is experiencing a challenging year in 2024, but there is an improvement in Q1 2025 performance. The ongoing platform layout and new product development are expected to enhance competitive advantages [4]. - The integration of operations is progressing, and new businesses are anticipated to gradually contribute to performance growth [4][6]. Financial Summary - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected at RMB 13,448 million, a decrease of 12.3% year-on-year, while the net profit is expected to be RMB 1,191 million, down 37.7% year-on-year [9]. - For Q1 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 3,215 million, a year-on-year increase of 5.96%, and a net profit of RMB 488 million, up 9.64% year-on-year [11]. - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.14, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15.5 [6][8]. Business Segments - The company has a significant competitive advantage in the coating diaphragm segment, with a sales volume of 7,003 million square meters in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 32.85% [9]. - The negative electrode business faced challenges in 2024, with sales declining by 14.81% to 132,300 tons. However, new silicon-carbon anodes have begun small-scale shipments [9]. - New business lines, including an 8GWh slurry and electrode coating production line, have commenced operations and are expected to achieve scale production in 2025 [9].

电力设备 | 证券研究报告 — 调整盈利预测 2025 年 5 月 15 日 002202.SZ 增持 原评级：增持 市场价格:人民币 9.32 板块评级:强于大市 股价表现 (%) 今年 至今 1 个月 3 个月 12 个月 绝对 (6.9) 14.4 2.4 15.9 相对深圳成指 (8.9) 9.7 5.6 9.6 发行股数 (百万) 4,225.07 流通股 (百万) 4,128.40 总市值 (人民币 百万) 39,377.63 3 个月日均交易额 (人民币 百万) 422.47 主要股东 香港中央结算(代理人)有限公司 18.28% (18%) (6%) 7% 20% 32% 45% May-24 Jun-24 Jul-24 Aug-24 Sep-24 Oct-24 Nov-24 Dec-24 Feb-25 Mar-25 Apr-25 May-25 金风科技 深圳成指 资料来源：公司公告， Wind ，中银证券 以 2025 年 5 月 13 日收市价为标准 相关研究报告 《金风科技》20240829 《金风科技》20240403 《金风科技》20230827 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投 ...

Core Insights - The report highlights a focus on the AI industry chain and robotics, which are expected to initiate a second round of rebound trends [6] - The telecommunications sector shows resilience with continuous revenue and profit growth among the three major operators, indicating a shift from traditional communication services to digital services [7][9] - Industrial Fulian is experiencing steady growth in revenue and profit, driven by optimized product structure and robust performance in cloud computing [11][12] - Demingli is poised for accelerated growth due to significant revenue increases and high-end product breakthroughs in the storage market [14][15] Telecommunications Sector - The three major telecom operators (China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom) achieved revenue of 6,268 billion, 3,282 billion, and 2,613 billion CNY respectively in 2024, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.8%, 3.0%, and 1.5% [7] - The operators are transitioning towards digital services, with cloud revenue exceeding 1,000 billion CNY for each operator, reflecting a shift from "network connection" to "intelligent connection" [7][9] - In 2024, the combined revenue of the three operators surpassed 1.9 trillion CNY, with a net profit of 1,804 billion CNY, marking a year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 5.9% respectively [9] Industrial Fulian - In 2024, Industrial Fulian reported a revenue of 6,091.35 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 27.88%, and a net profit of 232.16 billion CNY, up 10.34% [11] - The cloud computing segment achieved a revenue of 3,193.77 billion CNY in 2024, growing by 64.37% and accounting for over 50% of the company's total revenue [12] - The company is focusing on high-performance AI servers, which saw revenue growth exceeding 150% [12][13] Demingli - Demingli's revenue for 2024 reached 47.73 billion CNY, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 168.74%, with a net profit of 3.51 billion CNY, up 1,302.30% [14] - The company is expanding its high-end storage product offerings, which are expected to drive rapid growth in both scale and profitability [15][16] - The storage market is anticipated to stabilize and gradually recover in 2025, driven by emerging demands in AI and automotive electronics [16]

Core Insights - The report indicates that the second round of rebound in the technology sector, particularly in the AI and robotics industries, is expected to gradually commence [1][3][7] Market Environment - Recent substantial progress in US-China tariff negotiations has been noted, with the US canceling 91% of additional tariffs and China reciprocating with a similar reduction, which is expected to reduce market uncertainty and enhance risk appetite [4] - The domestic monetary policy has also shifted towards a more accommodative stance, with a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point cut in policy interest rates, signaling a supportive environment for growth [4] Performance Metrics - From May 1 to May 13, the AI index and robotics index rebounded by 2.78% and 5.64% respectively, indicating a positive trend in these sectors [3] - The AI industry reported a remarkable revenue growth of 40.30% in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming the overall market, which saw a decline of 0.41% [5] Sector Analysis - The AI industry chain is showing strong performance across various segments, particularly in computing infrastructure, AI edge devices, and related technologies such as copper connections, optical communications, and storage solutions [5] - The robotics sector is also recovering from a short-term adjustment, with signs of improved performance as tariff reductions enhance China's competitive advantage in the global robotics supply chain [6][7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [3][11]. Core Viewpoints - The telecom operators demonstrate resilient performance with continuous revenue and profit growth despite external pressures, marking a transition from "network connection" to "intelligent connection" [1]. - The operators are benefiting significantly from the AI wave, particularly through intelligent computing business growth and value reassessment, positioning them as defensive growth assets within the AI chain [3]. - The traditional telecom business remains a major revenue source, with projected revenues for 2024 being CNY 626.8 billion for China Mobile, CNY 328.2 billion for China Telecom, and CNY 261.3 billion for China Unicom, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.8%, 3.0%, and 1.5% respectively [3][4]. Summary by Sections Performance and Growth - The telecom operators have achieved a significant milestone with cloud services exceeding CNY 100 billion, indicating a shift towards digital services [1]. - In 2024, the intelligent computing scale for China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom is expected to reach 29.2, 35, and 17 EFLOPS respectively, with cloud revenues projected to be CNY 100.4 billion, CNY 113.9 billion, and CNY 68.6 billion, showing year-on-year growth of 20.4%, 17.1%, and 7.4% [3][4]. - The international business is also accelerating, with revenues for 2024 expected to be CNY 22.8 billion, CNY 16.9 billion, and CNY 12.5 billion for the three operators, reflecting growth rates of 10.2%, 15.4%, and 15.2% respectively [3][4]. Capital Expenditure and Investment - The capital expenditure (Capex) for 2025 is projected to be CNY 151.2 billion for China Mobile, CNY 55 billion for China Unicom, and CNY 83.6 billion for China Telecom, with reductions of 7.8%, 10.4%, and 10.6% respectively [3][4]. - Despite the reduction in Capex, the operators are committed to increasing investments in computing power, indicating a strong determination to transform and enhance core competitiveness [3][4]. Financial Stability and Dividends - The operators have consistently reported revenue and profit growth, with total revenue exceeding CNY 1.9 trillion and net profit reaching CNY 180.4 billion in 2024, reflecting year-on-year growth of 3.4% and 5.9% [3][4]. - The dividend payout remains high, with a total proposed dividend exceeding CNY 60 billion for 2024, and payout ratios of 73%, 72%, and 54.7% for China Mobile, China Unicom, and China Telecom respectively, with commitments to gradually increase these ratios [3][4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve steady growth in revenue and net profit, with a projected revenue of RMB 609.14 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 27.88%, and a net profit of RMB 23.22 billion, up 10.34% year-on-year [8] - The cloud computing segment is anticipated to show strong growth, with revenue expected to exceed RMB 3.19 trillion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 64.37%, marking a significant contribution to overall revenue [8] - The company is focusing on advanced product development and has a diversified performance elasticity that is expected to accelerate [5] Financial Summary - The company’s projected revenue for 2025 is RMB 756.42 billion, with a growth rate of 24.2% [7] - The expected net profit for 2025 is RMB 29.37 billion, reflecting a growth rate of 26.5% [7] - The company’s EBITDA for 2025 is projected to be RMB 39.10 billion, with a corresponding PE ratio of 13.0 times [5][7] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.28%, a decrease of 0.78 percentage points year-on-year [8] - The company’s total market capitalization is approximately RMB 382.68 billion [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company is experiencing steady growth with a focus on optimizing its product structure and enhancing operational efficiency, supported by strong performance in its cloud computing and telecommunications segments [3][8] - Revenue and net profit for 2024 are projected to be RMB 609.14 billion and RMB 23.22 billion, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 27.88% and 10.34% [8] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of RMB 7,564.19 billion, RMB 9,126.78 billion, and RMB 10,552.89 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5][7] Financial Summary - The company’s main revenue for 2023 is RMB 476.34 billion, with a projected growth rate of 27.9% for 2024 [7][25] - The EBITDA for 2024 is expected to be RMB 32.23 billion, with a net profit of RMB 23.22 billion [7][25] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is RMB 1.48, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.0 [5][25] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 7.28%, with a net profit margin of 3.81% [8][25] Business Segments - The cloud computing segment is anticipated to show robust growth, with revenues expected to exceed RMB 3,193.77 billion in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 64.37% [8] - The telecommunications and mobile network equipment segment is also projected to grow steadily, with revenues of RMB 2,878.98 billion in 2024 [8] - The company is focusing on AI server products, which have seen revenue growth exceeding 150%, becoming a core growth driver [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a market price of RMB 126.11 and a sector rating of outperforming the market [2][4]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant revenue and profit growth in 2024, driven by a recovery in storage market prices and breakthroughs in high-end products, indicating potential for accelerated growth [4][6]. - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in storage prices and an expanding downstream market, with strategic planning likely to yield results in the medium to long term [6][9]. Financial Performance Summary - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 4,773 million in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 168.7%, and a net profit of RMB 351 million, up 1,302.3% year-on-year [8][9]. - For 2025, the company is projected to generate revenues of RMB 7,263 million and a net profit of RMB 526 million, with corresponding PE ratios of 38.8 [6][8]. - The company's gross margin for 2024 was 17.75%, an increase of 1.09 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 7.35%, up 5.94 percentage points year-on-year [9]. Market Dynamics - The storage market is expected to stabilize and gradually recover in 2025, with emerging demands from AI and automotive electronics driving growth [9]. - The company is positioned to leverage the trend of domestic storage product localization, enhancing its competitive edge in the market [9].