Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company reported impressive Q3 results with revenue of 1.305 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 57.27% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 19.00%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 106 million RMB, up 566.25% year-on-year and 25.15% quarter-on-quarter [1][7]. - The company is expected to benefit from a rich order backlog in shipbuilding and is entering a harvest period in its defense and energy businesses [1][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3, the company achieved a gross margin of 21.78%, an increase of 7.36 percentage points year-on-year and 1.98 percentage points quarter-on-quarter. The net profit margin for Q3 was 8.15%, up 6.50 percentage points year-on-year [2]. - The total revenue for the first three quarters was 3.148 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 34.50%, with a net profit of 232 million RMB, up 202.12% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Operations - The company has a robust order book, having secured 18 new shipbuilding orders in August 2025, including various types of workboats and cargo ships. This is expected to enhance sales and gross margins [3]. - The shipbuilding business is progressing steadily, with recent deliveries including a 40,400-ton bulk carrier and a multi-purpose cargo ship [3]. Market Expansion - The company is actively exploring new markets in unmanned vessels and LNG refueling, which are anticipated to enter a growth phase. In the defense sector, it is developing various unmanned vessels to meet national maritime defense needs [4]. - In the energy sector, the company is involved in LNG refueling stations and has completed several projects related to liquid nitrogen and LNG refueling [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company has improved its manufacturing experience and delivery capabilities, leading to enhanced profitability in the shipbuilding EPC segment. The gross margin for this segment is projected to be 19% in 2025 and 17% in 2026 [5]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been raised to 305 million RMB for 2025, 333 million RMB for 2026, and 341 million RMB for 2027 [5]. The target price is set at 7.39 RMB based on a PE ratio of 42 for 2025 [5].

证券研究报告 南方航空 (600029 CH/1055 HK) 港股通 景气向上有望推动盈利弹性兑现 华泰研究 季报点评 2025 年 10 月 28 日│中国内地/中国香港 航空运输 公司公布 9M25 业绩：收入 1376.65 亿元，同增 2.2%；归母净利润 23.07 亿元，同增 17.4%。其中三季度公司实现收入 513.74 亿元，同增 3.0%； 归母净利润 38.40 亿元，同增 20.3%。公司 9M25 净利高于我们预期的 17.1 亿元，或由于 3Q 票价同比降幅小于预期。往后展望，新航季时刻数同比持 续收紧，景气呈现底部好转迹象，叠加反内卷和低基数，我们认为票价同比 转正有望在 4Q 延续。中长期行业供给增速或将保持低位，支撑收益水平改 善，同时油价下跌有望降低航司成本压力，共同推动航司兑现盈利弹性。维 持 A/H 股"买入"评级。 3Q 整体量增价跌，票价呈现好转趋势 3Q25 旺季公司平稳增投运力，经营呈现量增价跌态势。供/需分别同增 5.7%/6.2%，客座率为 85.9%，同增 0.4pct。其中国际线增速逐步趋于正常， 供给同增 9.8%，为 19 年同期的 93%，客座率 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" [1][4] Core Views - The report indicates that the price increase of certain agricultural chemicals may lead to a recovery in industry conditions, with expectations of improved profitability in the future [1][3] - The company's Q3 revenue was 770 million RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 36% and a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 15%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 170 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 5% [1][2] - The report anticipates that the agricultural chemical industry will see improved conditions due to better supply-demand dynamics and rising prices for certain products [3][4] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 770 million RMB, down 36% year-over-year and down 15% quarter-over-quarter, with a net profit of 170 million RMB, up 5% year-over-year [1][2] - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a total revenue of 2.66 billion RMB, a decrease of 24% year-over-year, and a net profit of 520 million RMB, down 9% year-over-year [1] Price Trends - Prices for certain agricultural chemicals have recently increased, with the average market prices for key products such as glyphosate and dichlorophenyl being 27,000 RMB/ton and 35,000 RMB/ton respectively, showing year-over-year increases of 7% and 1% [2][3] - The report notes that the overall gross margin for the company improved to 32.6%, reflecting a quarter-over-quarter increase of 2.0 percentage points [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecasts for the company have been adjusted downward for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with expected net profits of 740 million RMB, 860 million RMB, and 970 million RMB respectively, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 5% for 2025 [4] - The target price remains at 12.96 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 16 times the expected earnings for 2025 [4]

证券研究报告 宁波银行 (002142 CH) 息差趋稳+财富发力推动业绩稳增长 2025 年 10 月 28 日│中国内地 区域性银行 宁波银行于 10 月 27 日发布 2025 年三季报， 1-9 月归母净利润、营业收入 分别同比+8.4%、+8.3%，增速较 1-6 月+0.2pct、+0.4pct，业绩增速稳中 有进。1-9 月年化 ROE、ROA 分别同比-0.70pct、-0.06pct 至 13.81%、0.90%。 本次三季报亮点为投放增速稳健，息差环比持平，中收增长亮眼，资产质量 保持优异，关注后续债市投资波动。维持买入评级。 投放保持强劲，息差环比持平 9 月末总资产、贷款、存款增速分别为+16.6%、+17.9%、+9.8%，较 6 月 末+2.3pct、-0.8pct、-3.1pct。公司资产扩张提速，其中同业资产、债券投 资同比增速分别较 6 月末+4.5pct、+5.2pct 至 31.5%、17.9%。贷款增速虽 微降但仍保持较高景气度，Q3 新增贷款 463 亿元，零售仍小幅缩表，对公 持续发力，且票据压降、结构优化。公司存款端增速明显下行，零售、对公 存款均较 6 月末小幅 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 56.60 [1][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a steady performance in Q3 2025, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 3.8% to RMB 32.66 billion and a net profit increase of 7.2% to RMB 2.75 billion for the first nine months of 2025. The revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 10.99 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, and net profit was RMB 0.93 billion, up 7.7% year-on-year [1][5]. - The report highlights that the impact of industrial procurement is manageable, and the acceleration of domestic innovative drug approvals is expected to drive double-digit growth in industrial revenue for 2025 [2]. - The commercial segment showed stable growth with a revenue increase of 3.3% year-on-year, while the medical aesthetics segment faced short-term pressure with a revenue decline of 17.9% year-on-year [3]. - The research and development pipeline is diversified across endocrine, oncology, and autoimmune diseases, with several products in various stages of clinical trials [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 32.66 billion, a 3.8% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 2.75 billion, a 7.2% increase year-on-year. The Q3 revenue was RMB 10.99 billion, up 4.5% year-on-year, with net profit also increasing by 7.7% to RMB 0.93 billion [1][5]. Revenue Growth Drivers - The company’s revenue from innovative products and agency services reached RMB 1.68 billion, a significant increase of 62% year-on-year, driven by new drug approvals in the endocrine and oncology sectors [2][4]. R&D Pipeline - The R&D pipeline includes multiple products in various stages of development, focusing on endocrine disorders, oncology, and autoimmune diseases, indicating a robust future growth potential [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been slightly adjusted downwards due to the impact of the consumer environment on the medical aesthetics segment, with expected net profits of RMB 3.81 billion, RMB 4.30 billion, and RMB 4.78 billion respectively [5][11]. The overall valuation using the SOTP method is estimated at RMB 99.27 billion [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained at "Buy" with a target price of RMB 102.34 per share [1][10][22]. Core Views - The company reported a significant revenue increase of 121% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, achieving RMB 166 million in revenue and RMB 22 million in net profit, indicating a turnaround from losses [6][10]. - The decline in gross margin in Q3 2025 is attributed to price reductions for high-speed line modules due to customer demands, despite a year-on-year increase in gross margin [8][10]. - The company is expected to benefit from the growing demand for high-speed line modules, particularly from major internet and server manufacturers, as it transitions from a "one to ten" growth phase [7][10]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fiscal year 2024, the company is projected to generate revenue of RMB 1,092 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20.83%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach RMB 2,470 million, reflecting a growth of 126.24% [5][10]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to be RMB 343.55 million in 2025, a significant increase from a loss of RMB 17.75 million in 2024 [5][10]. Gross Margin and Cost Management - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was reported at 26.60%, showing a year-on-year increase of 14 percentage points but a decline of 9 percentage points from the previous quarter due to pricing pressures [8][10]. - The company has seen a reduction in expense ratios due to scale effects, with sales, management, and R&D expense ratios improving year-on-year [8][10]. Growth Strategy - The company plans to raise RMB 388 million to expand its production capacity for high-speed line modules, aiming to enhance the production capability of its 112Gbps products and introduce new products to meet next-generation GPU interconnect needs [9][10]. - The company is focusing on both mass production and innovation to capture market share, particularly in the high-speed line module segment [7][10]. Valuation and Market Position - The company is expected to achieve net profits of RMB 3.44 billion, RMB 7.83 billion, and RMB 11.49 billion in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with adjustments made to gross margin expectations due to strong bargaining power of major clients [10][20]. - The valuation approach includes a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis, with a target market capitalization of RMB 471.77 billion, corresponding to a target price of RMB 102.34 per share [22][10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company reported Q3 revenue of 1.13 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 12%, but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 4%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 160 million RMB, up 4% year-over-year but down 19.5% quarter-over-quarter. For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 3.28 billion RMB, an 11% increase year-over-year, with a net profit of 490 million RMB, reflecting a 1.5% year-over-year growth [1][4]. - The company is expanding its presence in various sectors, including electronic materials, catalytic materials, biomedical materials, and new energy materials, with a focus on increasing market share and product penetration [2][3]. - The company has made a strategic investment in a robotics fund, enhancing its positioning in the robotics sector, which is expected to create new opportunities for synergy with its new materials business [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue was 1.13 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 12% and a quarter-over-quarter decline of 4%. The net profit was 160 million RMB, showing a year-over-year increase of 4% but a quarter-over-quarter decrease of 19.5%. For the first three quarters, total revenue reached 3.28 billion RMB, up 11% year-over-year, and net profit was 490 million RMB, reflecting a 1.5% increase year-over-year [1][4]. Market Position and Growth Opportunities - The company is experiencing a recovery in downstream demand, particularly in electronic materials, with strong growth in automotive electronics and AI servers. The demand for MLCC (Multi-Layer Ceramic Capacitor) materials is robust, and the company is expected to continue increasing its global market share [2]. - In the catalytic materials sector, the company is deepening collaborations with major domestic and international automotive clients, which is anticipated to enhance its market share among top clients [2]. - The biomedical materials segment is seeing increased product penetration and coverage, while the new energy materials sector benefits from high demand for new energy batteries [2]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the profit forecast for 2025-2027, with net profits projected at 660 million RMB, 880 million RMB, and 1.04 billion RMB respectively, reflecting year-over-year growth rates of 9%, 33%, and 18%. The EPS is expected to be 0.66 RMB, 0.88 RMB, and 1.04 RMB for the respective years [4][10]. - The target price for the company is set at 23.76 RMB, based on a 36x PE ratio for 2025, indicating a positive outlook on the company's growth potential in new materials [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown stable performance in its pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, with new products contributing to growth. The inventory levels are healthy, indicating a stable base [1][2]. - The whisky business is focused on long-term brand building, with steady distribution efforts ongoing. The company aims to develop a second growth curve through its whisky offerings [1][2][4]. - The overall financial performance remains stable, with a gross margin of 70.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a notable increase in cash flow from operations [3][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 2.27 billion, with a net profit of 550 million, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 4.9% and 4.4% respectively. In Q3 alone, total revenue was 780 million, with a net profit of 160 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q1-Q3 2025 was 70.3%, with a slight increase from the previous year. The net profit margin for Q3 was 20.5%, down 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3][4]. Product Performance - The company's pre-mixed alcoholic beverages, particularly the "微醺" (Mellow) product line, have shown strong growth, while new products like "轻享" (Light Enjoy) and "果冻酒" (Jelly Wine) have also contributed positively [2][4]. - The whisky segment is currently in a steady distribution phase, with a focus on the southern China market, and is expected to contribute to future growth [2][4]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a recovery in the pre-mixed alcoholic beverage sector driven by consumer demand, while the whisky business is expected to gradually build momentum [4]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 2.94 billion, 3.17 billion, and 3.49 billion respectively, reflecting a downward revision of 6% for each year [4].

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In September, industrial enterprises' profits improved year-on-year to 21.6%, up from 20.4% in August, driven by a low base effect and strong export performance [3] - Revenue growth for industrial enterprises also increased to 3.1% in September from 2.3% in August, indicating a positive trend in cash flow due to anti-involution policies [3] Group 2: Fixed Income Market Analysis - The bond market has shown signs of recovery in October, influenced by trade tensions and a loose liquidity environment, with expectations for a better fourth quarter compared to the third [5] - The market anticipates a controlled impact from new redemption regulations, with a focus on short to medium-term credit bonds as a primary investment strategy [5] Group 3: Oil and Gas Sector - Oil prices have entered a downward trend due to OPEC+ increasing production targets and seasonal demand decline, with Brent crude expected to average $68 in 2025 and $62 in 2026 [9] - Despite short-term volatility from geopolitical tensions, the long-term outlook suggests limited impact from sanctions on oil prices, with high-dividend energy companies presenting investment opportunities [9] Group 4: Real Estate and Construction - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in transaction volumes for both new and second-hand homes, attributed to high base effects and seasonal factors [8] - The construction sector shows mixed signals, with some recovery in cement supply and demand, while asphalt production rates have decreased [8] Group 5: Key Company Performances - Beike-W (2423 HK) is projected to benefit from a gradual market recovery, with a target price of HKD 65.64 based on a 26x PE ratio for 2026 [11] - Zhiou Technology (301376 CH) reported a revenue of CNY 60.8 billion for the first three quarters, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and is expected to improve profitability as tariff risks ease [12] - Tianhai Defense (300008 CH) showed significant growth in Q3, with a revenue increase of 57.27% year-on-year, driven by strong orders in shipbuilding and defense sectors [14] - Kuka Home (603816 CH) reported steady revenue growth of 6.5% in Q3, with a focus on global expansion and brand strength [15] - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) experienced a revenue decline of 9.83% in Q3, but is expected to see margin recovery as product prices stabilize [16] Group 6: Consumer Goods and Services - Salted Fish (002847 CH) reported a revenue increase of 14.7% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing product categories and channels to enhance profitability [27] - Petty Co. (300673 CH) continues to see strong growth in its domestic brand, with a focus on single product strategies despite challenges in overseas markets [18] - Jiangsu Bank (601009 CH) reported a steady growth in net profit and revenue, driven by stable interest income and effective cost management [32]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the oil and gas sector [5]. Core Views - The oil price is expected to enter a downward channel due to the end of the peak season and increased production from OPEC+, with short-term volatility anticipated due to U.S. sanctions on Russian oil [1][10]. - The average Brent crude oil price is projected to be $68 and $62 per barrel for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with Q4 2025 to Q2 2026 prices expected to be around $63, $61, and $60 per barrel [4][65]. - High-dividend energy companies with production and cost reduction capabilities, as well as growth in natural gas business, are recommended for investment opportunities, specifically China Petroleum (A/H) and China National Offshore Oil Corporation (A/H) [4][65]. Supply Side Summary - OPEC+ is expected to release actual production increments starting Q4 2025, with global oil supply increasing by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026 [3][42]. - The U.S. announced new sanctions on Russian oil, affecting nearly 50% of the country's total oil exports, which may cause short-term disruptions in global oil trade [3][42]. - Despite these sanctions, the long-term impact on oil supply and demand is expected to be limited due to a generally loose supply-demand situation [3][42]. Demand Side Summary - Global oil demand growth for 2025 has been revised down to 700,000 barrels per day from a previous estimate of 740,000 barrels per day, with 2026 demand growth maintained at 700,000 barrels per day [2][17]. - The end of the traditional peak season has led to a decrease in refinery throughput in major regions, with U.S. refinery utilization rates declining due to seasonal maintenance [2][26]. - China's crude oil imports fell by 4.5% month-on-month in September, indicating a slight decrease in demand [2][29]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends the following companies based on their potential for growth and dividend yield: - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (883 HK) - Buy with a target price of 27.49 [7][66] - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938 CH) - Buy with a target price of 34.75 [7][66] - China Petroleum (601857 CH) - Hold with a target price of 10.44 [7][66] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (857 HK) - Hold with a target price of 8.80 [7][66]