Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 18.20 [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 67.72 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 37.3%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 8.82 billion, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year [1]. - The decline in revenue is attributed to high gold prices and weak consumer demand, particularly affecting franchise channel revenues, while net profit increased due to a higher proportion of high-margin products and channels [1]. - The company is focusing on quality development, implementing a multi-brand strategy, enhancing product research and development, and optimizing product structure, with "self-indulgence" and "light jewelry" products emerging as structural highlights [1]. Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q3 2025, the company generated revenue of RMB 21.75 billion, down 16.7% year-on-year, while net profit reached RMB 2.88 billion, up 13.6% year-on-year [1]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 28.5%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from product structure optimization and gold price increases [3]. - The company’s franchise business revenue in Q3 2025 was RMB 9.2 billion, down 46.8% year-on-year, while online self-operated business revenue increased by 15.7% to RMB 4.52 billion [2]. Product and Channel Strategy - The company is enhancing its self-operated and e-commerce channels to counteract the weak demand for traditional gold products, with a focus on lightweight and cost-effective products [2]. - The company closed 43 stores in Q3 2025, with a net reduction of 560 stores compared to the same period last year, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing channel quality [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted upwards by 5% for 2025 and 2026, and by 7% for 2027, with projected net profits of RMB 11.6 billion, RMB 12.8 billion, and RMB 14.8 billion respectively [5]. - The target price is based on a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 17 times for 2025, reflecting the company's position as a leading brand in the gold jewelry industry [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 35.19 RMB [7][5]. Core Insights - The company reported Q3 revenue of 1.559 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 19.62% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.00%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 220 million RMB, up 21.24% year-over-year and 3.56% quarter-over-quarter [1]. - The company has seen a slight increase in revenue growth, with Q3 revenue growth at 19.6%, compared to 10.2% in Q2. The injection molding machine exports have achieved a significant milestone with over 3,500 units delivered to the factory in Gujarat, India [2]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 33.27%, and the net margin was 14.18%, with slight declines attributed to accounting policy adjustments and increased industry competition [3]. - The company plans to invest at least 374 million RMB to enhance production capacity and order response speed, which is expected to strengthen its core competitiveness and overall profitability [4]. - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is 718 million, 846 million, and 988 million RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.59% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached 1.559 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 19.62% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.00%. For the first three quarters of 2025, total revenue was 4.306 billion RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 17.21% [1]. - The company’s Q3 gross margin was 33.27%, and net margin was 14.18%, with year-over-year declines of 1.74 and 0.18 percentage points, respectively [3]. Market Expansion - The company has made significant breakthroughs in overseas markets and with major clients, particularly in the magnesium alloy sector, which is expected to see increased demand due to its lightweight and cost advantages [2]. Investment and Growth Strategy - The company is set to invest at least 374 million RMB to enhance its production capabilities, which will support future growth and improve its competitive edge [4]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 718 million, 846 million, and 988 million RMB, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 17.59% [5]. The target price has been adjusted to 35.19 RMB, reflecting a price-to-earnings ratio of 23 for 2025 [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate/Buy" rating for both A and H shares of the company [7] Core Views - The company's net profit for the first nine months of 2025 increased by 1.1% year-on-year, with revenue growth of 2.7% and a slight decline in PPOP of 0.2% [1] - The report highlights stable credit growth and a marginal stabilization in interest margins, contributing to a recovery in profit growth momentum [1][2] - The effective tax rate has improved marginally, aiding profit growth [3] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first nine months of 2025, the annualized ROA and ROE were 0.70% and 8.98%, respectively, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.06 percentage points and 0.57 percentage points [1] - The company reported a net interest margin of 1.26% for the first nine months of 2025, remaining stable compared to the first half of 2025 [2] Income Sources - Net fee and commission income increased by 8.1% year-on-year for the first nine months of 2025, while other non-interest income grew by 22.2% [3] - Investment income for Q3 was 231 billion yuan, up from 176 billion yuan in the same period last year, despite some pressure on investment-related income due to market volatility [3] Asset Quality and Capital - The non-performing loan ratio was stable at 1.24% as of Q3 2025, with a provision coverage ratio of 197% [4] - The company maintained a strong capital position, with a core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio of 12.58% [4] Valuation and Forecast - The report forecasts net profit for 2025 to be 241.3 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 1.5% [5] - The target price for 2026 is set at 6.70 yuan for A shares and 5.86 HKD for H shares, with corresponding price-to-book ratios of 0.78 and 0.63 [5]

证券研究报告 成都银行 (601838 CH) 非息扰动无碍长期韧性 华泰研究 季报点评 投资评级(维持): 买入 目标价(人民币): 23.25 沈娟 研究员 SAC No. S0570514040002 SFC No. BPN843 贺雅亭 研究员 heyating@htsc.com +(86) 10 6321 1166 蒲葭依 研究员 SAC No. S0570525090001 SFC No. BVL774 李润凌* 联系人 SAC No. S0570123090022 lirunling@htsc.com 基本数据 | 收盘价 (人民币 截至 10 月 28 日) | 18.11 | | --- | --- | | 市值 (人民币百万) | 76,758 | | 6 个月平均日成交额 (人民币百万) | 478.81 | | 52 周价格范围 (人民币) | 15.36-20.88 | 股价走势图 (10) 1 13 24 35 Oct-24 Feb-25 Jun-25 Oct-25 (%) 成都银行 沪深300 资料来源：Wind 经营预测指标与估值 | 会计年度 (人民币) | 2024 | 2 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.382 billion RMB for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.16%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 180 million RMB, up 3.39% year-on-year [1][7]. - The company is focusing on the application of AI in various sectors, particularly in humanoid robotics and automation solutions, which is expected to open new growth opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 505 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.18% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.27%. The net profit for the same period was 53 million RMB, up 11.35% year-on-year but down 34.55% quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 35.38%, down 3.44 percentage points year-on-year and 3.04 percentage points quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to an increase in sales of lower-margin servo products [2]. Market Position and Strategy - The company holds a leading position in the domestic small PLC market with a market share of approximately 7.6% as of H1 2025, ranking first among domestic brands. The company is expanding its reach into high-end industries such as new energy and semiconductors [3]. - The company has launched new servo products in 2025, which are expected to enhance its market share in the servo product segment, which was approximately 3.9% in H1 2025, up from 3.7% in 2024 [3]. Product Development and Future Outlook - The company is actively developing key components for humanoid robots, including frameless torque motors and encoders, and is collaborating with partners to create AI and automation solutions focused on welding and sorting applications [4]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, lowering the net profit estimates to 261 million RMB, 294 million RMB, and 327 million RMB respectively, reflecting changes in product revenue structure and increased sales expenses due to its large customer strategy [5]. Valuation - The target price for the company is set at 63.58 RMB, based on a price-to-earnings ratio of 34 times, which is a decrease from the previous target price of 78.23 RMB [5][7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 199.20 [6][4]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of RMB 1.912 billion for the first three quarters of 2025, representing a year-over-year increase of 30.97%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 377 million, up 50.04% year-over-year [1][6]. - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of RMB 667 million, a year-over-year increase of 23.51%, but a quarter-over-quarter decline of 3.05% due to the earlier pull of government subsidies [1][2]. - The gross margin improved to 47.97% in Q3 2025, up 5.83 percentage points year-over-year and 1.28 percentage points quarter-over-quarter, driven by the inclusion of software fees from cloud services in hardware product pricing [2][4]. - The company is expanding its "Processing + Connectivity" strategy into high-speed data transmission and high-performance SoC markets, which opens up long-term growth opportunities [1][3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of RMB 1.912 billion, with a net profit of RMB 377 million and a non-recurring net profit of RMB 348 million [1][6]. - In Q3 2025, revenue was RMB 667 million, with a net profit of RMB 116 million, reflecting a year-over-year increase but a quarter-over-quarter decline [1][2]. Product and Market Insights - The growth in revenue is attributed to the increasing digitalization and intelligence penetration across various industries, with smart home applications being the primary revenue source [2][3]. - The company is seeing strong demand in non-smart home sectors, particularly in smart tools and devices [2]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates strong demand for consumer AIoT applications and is experiencing rapid growth in new markets such as industrial, medical, and energy sectors [3]. - The first Wi-Fi 6E wireless communication chip is expected to enter mass production in 2026, marking a significant breakthrough in high-performance wireless communication chips [3][4]. Profitability and Valuation - The report adjusts the revenue forecast for 2025 to RMB 2.594 billion, down from RMB 2.632 billion, while raising the gross margin estimates for 2025 to 46.53% [4]. - The net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are adjusted to RMB 508 million, RMB 707 million, and RMB 912 million, respectively [4].

Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is crucial for the valuation of the US dollar, serving as an important anchor for its credibility[2] - The Fed's independence has been established through historical events and legislative measures, particularly the Banking Act of 1935 and the Treasury-Fed Accord of 1951[3][14] - The Fed's independence is protected in four key areas: organizational structure, decision-making processes, policy tools, and the execution of its functions without external interference[3][11][20] Group 2: Historical Interventions - Historical interventions by the White House have often occurred during fiscal expansion cycles and pre-election periods, with notable examples including the Johnson, Nixon, and Trump administrations[4][5][21] - The Trump administration's interference represents the most direct challenge to Fed independence in nearly 80 years, marked by unprecedented public criticism and controversial nominations[5][6] - Past interventions have led to significant inflation risks, with the Fed's independence being crucial for long-term market stability despite potential short-term pain[4][6] Group 3: Macroeconomic Implications - A weakened Fed independence could lead to lower nominal interest rates, potentially pushing real rates into negative territory, and could undermine the stability of inflation expectations[6] - Historical patterns indicate that political pressure on the Fed often results in a depreciation of the dollar and increased inflation risks, as seen during the 1970s and 1980s[6][21] - Current economic conditions, including accelerated growth and impending fiscal expansion, may further challenge the Fed's independence and lead to a decline in the dollar index over the next 3-5 years[6][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 20.67 RMB, reflecting a positive outlook based on the company's recovery and growth potential [7][5]. Core Insights - The company has shown significant improvement in its financial performance, with a notable increase in net profit and revenue in the third quarter of 2025, indicating a return to a growth trajectory [1][2]. - The operational efficiency and cash flow have been steadily improving, with net profit margins recovering to levels between 18% and 20% in the second and third quarters of 2025 [2]. - The company is expected to achieve double-digit growth in its cardiovascular and respiratory product lines, driven by improved marketing and seasonal demand [3]. Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenues of 5.87 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 8%, but a significant increase in net profit by 80% to 1 billion RMB [1]. - The third quarter alone saw revenues of 1.83 billion RMB, with net profit exceeding 330 million RMB, marking over a 1000% increase year-over-year [1]. - The company’s gross margins for the second and third quarters of 2025 were reported at 67.4% and 62.9%, respectively, indicating strong profitability [2]. Product Line and Innovation - The company has a robust pipeline of innovative products, with several traditional Chinese medicine and chemical drug projects progressing through various stages of development [4]. - The cardiovascular segment generated over 3 billion RMB in revenue for the first three quarters of 2025, with expectations for growth in the coming years [3]. - The respiratory product line, particularly the Lianhua Qingwen, is anticipated to see increased sales as seasonal demand rises in the autumn and winter [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" for both A and H shares, maintained from previous assessments [7]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 12.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 640 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 14.7% and 50.8% respectively. However, Q3 showed a revenue of 4.73 billion yuan and a net profit of 380 million yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 21.0% and 5.8 million yuan [1][2]. - The recovery in photovoltaic glass prices has led to an improvement in gross margins, alongside a reversal of asset impairments, which supports the company's position as an industry leader with scale and profitability advantages [1][2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 12.46 billion yuan, down 14.7% year-on-year, while Q3 revenue was 4.73 billion yuan, up 21.0% year-on-year and 29.2% quarter-on-quarter. The gross margin for Q3 was 16.8%, up 10.8% year-on-year and 0.1% quarter-on-quarter [2][3]. Cost Management and Cash Flow - The company's expense ratio slightly decreased to 7.4% for the first three quarters of 2025. The operating cash flow improved to 2.26 billion yuan in Q3, up 4.3% year-on-year, driven by increased sales [3]. Inventory and Asset Impairment - The company experienced a significant reduction in inventory, which fell by 38.4% to 1.21 billion yuan by the end of Q3. This reduction contributed to a reversal of asset impairments amounting to 80 million yuan [3][4]. Market Outlook - The photovoltaic glass industry has seen a notable decrease in inventory levels, with expectations for stable pricing in Q4 due to improved supply-demand dynamics. The average price for 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass was reported at 13 yuan per square meter, up 6.1% year-on-year [4]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The earnings forecast remains unchanged, with projected net profits of 1.04 billion yuan, 1.80 billion yuan, and 2.28 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price for A shares is set at 22.59 yuan, while for H shares it is 13.54 HKD [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of RMB 106.48 [1][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue and net profit for the first nine months of 2025 were RMB 2.381 billion and RMB 509 million, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 18.3% and 12.9%. The revenue for Q3 2025 was RMB 815 million, with a year-on-year increase of 20.1, while net profit growth was slower due to a decline in gross margins for some products. The outlook remains positive for overseas performance and domestic improvements due to the "anti-involution" expectations in centralized procurement [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 9M25, the company reported a gross margin of 64.55%, down 3.09 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to lower margins from centralized procurement of certain products. The sales, management, R&D, and financial expense ratios were 21.81%, 12.74%, 5.62%, and -3.03%, respectively, with the financial expense ratio decreasing significantly due to increased foreign exchange gains [3][4]. Business Expansion - The company completed the acquisition of 51% of Creo Medical S.L.U. in February 2025, marking a significant step in expanding its presence in the European market. The Thailand manufacturing center is set to commence production by the end of the year, enhancing the global supply chain. The domestic sales team is adapting to market pressures, and the "anti-involution" principle in centralized procurement is expected to alleviate pricing pressures on the company's products, leading to marginal improvements in domestic performance [2][4]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025-2027 is RMB 638.94 million, RMB 769.31 million, and RMB 917.35 million, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 15.49%, 20.40%, and 19.24%. The expected EPS for the same period is RMB 3.40, RMB 4.10, and RMB 4.88 [4][9].