Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Views - The company is entering a new development phase with optimized business structure, aiming to return to a growth trajectory [1] - The company is a leader in the B2B e-commerce sector targeting lower-tier markets, focusing on supply chain and SaaS+ services [2][3] - Revenue and net profit are projected to grow steadily from 2025 to 2027, with a forecasted revenue of 658 billion, 723 billion, and 795 billion respectively, and net profit of 3.5 billion, 4.6 billion, and 5.9 billion, reflecting growth rates of 10% and 31% respectively [2][3] Financial Summary - For 2024, the company expects a revenue of 600.6 billion, a decrease of 27% year-on-year, and a net profit of 270 million, down 40% year-on-year [3][8] - The company’s gross margin for 2024 is projected at 3.8%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points, while the net margin is expected to be 0.77%, up 0.1 percentage points [3][8] - The company’s total assets are estimated to be 28.5 billion in 2024, with total liabilities of 18.9 billion, resulting in a debt-to-equity ratio of 66.27% [8]

❑ 美国"基差交易"规模大，易衍生金融风险 证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 11 日 美国流动性压力缓解 核心观点 4 月 7 日以来美国 10 年期国债收益率出现快速飙升可能因为特朗普政策扰动过 大，"基差交易"平仓所致。我们认为 2025 年美债利率可能在 4%-5%之间宽幅震 荡，特朗普政策阶段性回摆后美元美债流动性问题大规模发酵风险有限。 一是特朗普政策阶段性回摆，"对等关税"政策落地后未来不确定性进一步上行空 间有限。二是美联储有充足政策储备维持市场流动性。三是海外市场投资者购买 美债比例没有明显下行。未来应持续观测美债市场拍卖情况和美国《财政部国际 资本报告（TIC）》的海外持仓情况。 4 月 7 日以来美国 10 年期国债收益率出现快速飙升，由 4 月 4 日 4.01%升至 4 月 8 日 4.26%，且在 4 月 9 日一度触及 4.5%。美国国债收益率的快速飙升可能是"基 差交易"平仓导致。 基差（basis point）是美国国债现货和期货的价差，基差交易就是指在期货合约接 近到期时从期货和现货的价差中进行套利的交易。交易者会 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is expected to see robust growth in its emerging business, with 13 new PPQ projects anticipated in 2025 and a more than 130% year-over-year increase in orders for its macromolecule business in 2024 [1][2] - Despite a decline in revenue and net profit in 2024, the company managed to achieve a 7.40% year-over-year growth in revenue when excluding the impact of large orders from the previous year [1] - The company has a strong order backlog of $10.52 billion, which is over 20% higher than the same period last year, laying a solid foundation for stable growth in 2025 [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported revenue of 5.805 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.82% year-over-year, and a net profit of 949 million yuan, down 58.17% year-over-year [1][10] - The fourth quarter of 2024 showed signs of recovery with revenue of 1.664 billion yuan, up 15.41% year-over-year and 15.35% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 42.36%, a decline of 8.8 percentage points year-over-year, primarily due to the high base effect from large orders in 2023 [2][10] Business Segments - The small molecule CDMO segment achieved revenue of 4.571 billion yuan in 2024, with an 8.85% year-over-year growth when excluding large orders [1] - The emerging business segment generated revenue of 1.226 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 2.25% year-over-year increase, with expectations for significant growth in 2025 [1] - The biopharmaceutical CDMO business saw a revenue increase of 13.91% year-over-year, with a strong order pipeline including 15 new ADC IND projects [2] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company’s EPS is projected to be 2.90 yuan in 2025, with a corresponding P/E ratio of 22 times based on the closing price on April 10, 2025 [8][10] - The expected revenue for 2025 is 6.629 billion yuan, representing a 14.21% increase from 2024 [10] - The company maintains strong growth potential in its small molecule CDMO and emerging business segments, which are expected to contribute significantly to future earnings [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Anta Sports is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - Anta reported Q1 performance exceeding expectations, with the acquisition of German outdoor brand Wolfskin further enhancing its outdoor portfolio [2] - The main brand of Anta shows vitality with a high single-digit growth in Q1, driven by strong performance in children's products and online sales [2] - FILA brand also demonstrated robust growth, with high single-digit increases in revenue, particularly in children's and trendy products [3] - Other brands like Descente and KOLON experienced significant growth, with Descente's revenue growth nearing 60% [4] - The acquisition of Wolfskin, a professional outdoor brand, is expected to complement Anta's mid-range outdoor market presence and enhance its international footprint [5] - Revenue forecasts for Anta are projected to grow by 10% in 2025, 8% in 2026, and 7% in 2027, with net profit expected to reach 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB respectively [6] Summary by Sections Main Brand Performance - Anta's main brand revenue grew in high single digits in Q1, with children's products and online sales also showing strong growth [2] FILA Brand Performance - FILA's revenue growth was high single digits, with children's and trendy products leading the way, and online sales outpacing offline [3] Other Brands - Descente's revenue growth approached 60%, while KOLON's revenue nearly doubled, indicating strong performance across outdoor and women's sports segments [4] Acquisition of Wolfskin - The acquisition of Wolfskin for approximately 2.9 billion USD (about 21.2 billion RMB) is expected to enhance Anta's outdoor brand portfolio and market presence in Europe and China [5] Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Anta are 782 billion RMB in 2025, 846 billion RMB in 2026, and 909 billion RMB in 2027, with corresponding net profits of 134 billion, 147 billion, and 161 billion RMB [6]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 11 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 04 月 11 日 ： 张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ： 021-80106048 ： zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重要推荐 ❑ 【浙商中小盘 钟凯锋/宋伟/史凡可】民士达（833394）公司深度：国内芳纶纸龙头，把握变局期崛起机遇—— 20250410 重要观点 ❑ 【浙商固收 覃汉/沈聂萍】债券市场专题研究：美元霸权角度再思考对等关税影响——20250409 http://www.stocke.com.cn 1/4 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ❑ 大势：周四上证指数上涨 1.2%，沪深 300 上涨 1.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.1%，中证 1000 上涨 2.3%，创业板指上涨 2.3%，恒生指数上涨 2.1%。 ❑ 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是商贸零售（+4.8%)、纺织服饰（+3.8%)、有色金属（+3.4%)、汽车（+3.2%)、 传媒（+3.2%)，表现最差的行业分别是煤炭（+0.1%)、公用事业（+0.2%)、农林牧渔（+0.5 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 24.006 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19.35%, and a net profit of 3.840 billion yuan, up 20.00% year-on-year. The proposed cash dividend of 2.684 billion yuan reflects a dividend payout ratio of 70%, significantly higher than the 43%/44% in 2022/2023 [1] - The growth in sales volume is primarily driven by an increase in new customers and the end of inventory destocking by existing clients. The company expects to sell 223 million pairs of sports shoes in 2024, a 17.53% increase year-on-year, with an average selling price of approximately 107.4 yuan per pair, up 1.6% year-on-year [2] - The company is experiencing temporary fluctuations in gross margin due to the ramp-up of production efficiency in newly established factories. The gross margin for 2024 is projected at 26.8%, a 1.2 percentage point increase year-on-year, while the net profit margin is expected to be 16.0% [3] - The company is expanding its production capacity with multiple new factories in Vietnam and Indonesia, which will enhance its ability to meet customer demand while also reducing procurement costs through local sourcing [4] - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 27.629 billion yuan, 31.723 billion yuan, and 36.366 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 4.340 billion yuan, 4.988 billion yuan, and 5.724 billion yuan, indicating a stable growth trajectory [5]

Inflation Data - March CPI year-on-year growth rate was -0.1%, slightly better than the previous value of -0.7% and in line with market expectations[2] - March PPI year-on-year growth rate recorded at -2.5%, slightly lower than the previous value of -2.2%[2] Price Movements - Food prices decreased by 1.4% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.24 percentage points to the CPI decline[4] - The price of wearable smart devices increased by 4.6% year-on-year, driven by advancements in high-tech industries[2] Core CPI Insights - Core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose by 0.5% year-on-year in March, reversing from a decline of 0.1% in February[8] - Service prices increased by 0.3% year-on-year in March, contributing positively to the CPI[8] Commodity Prices - March Brent crude oil average price was $72.51 per barrel, down by $2.81 from the previous month[7] - Domestic gasoline prices decreased by 3.5% month-on-month, impacting CPI by approximately 0.12 percentage points[7] Economic Outlook - The government aims for a CPI increase of around 2% for 2025, indicating a shift towards balancing supply and demand rather than strict inflation control[8] - The report suggests that effective demand recovery has significant potential, with the economy still in the early stages of inflation bottoming out[2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 5.9065 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.72%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 956.48 million yuan, up 24.80% year-on-year [1][6] - The phosphate chemical products segment continues to grow, with revenue from phosphate chemicals and phosphate rock mining reaching 4.988 billion yuan and 543 million yuan, accounting for 84.47% and 9.19% of total revenue, respectively [2][3] - The company has abundant phosphate resources, with total reserves of 35 million tons, ensuring stable future development [3] - The company announced a cash dividend of 12.00 yuan per 10 shares for 2024, amounting to approximately 646.4 million yuan, which is 67% of the net profit for the year [4] - A stock incentive plan is proposed for 2025, granting 9.309 million restricted shares to key personnel, aiming for revenue growth of at least 20% in 2025 and 30% in 2026 [5] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 6.936 billion yuan, 8.344 billion yuan, and 8.603 billion yuan, with net profits of 1.292 billion yuan, 1.503 billion yuan, and 1.600 billion yuan, respectively [6][12]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 宏观专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 10 日 3 月通胀：服务价格拉动核心 CPI，生产资料价格涨跌互现 2025 年 3 月 CPI 和 PPI 数据解读 核心观点 3 月 CPI 同比增速为-0.1%（前值-0.7%），基本符合市场预期（Wind 一致预期为 -0.1%），环比增速走低至-0.4%（前值为-0.2%），主要是季节性因子和国际油价波 动的影响。3 月 PPI 同比增速录得-2.5%（前值-2.2%），略低于市场预期（Wind 一致预期为-2.2%），主要受国际输入性因素影响和部分出口行业价格下行等影响。 我们认为，2025 年政府工作报告将 CPI 涨幅设定为 2%左右，更多表现为努力实 现的方向，而并非将物价涨幅控制在目标以下，当前通胀水平正处于筑底回升的 早期阶段，有效需求恢复的弹性空间较大。值得关注的是，人工智能、高性能大模 型等广泛应用，高技术产业发展对相关行业价格起到拉动作用，3 月可穿戴智能设 备制造价格同比上涨 4.6%。 大类资产方面，风险偏好或成为重要的影响因子。我们认为，未来其他国家对美 贸易谈判是我国内需政策的关 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear. The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may continue to disrupt the global financial market. The trade negotiations between China and the US have many variables, and the suspension of reciprocal tariffs may just be the start of future frictions and negotiations [1][2]. - Tariff trading should focus on response rather than prediction. Given the low visibility of Trump's policies, it is more cost - effective to avoid unpredictable disturbances and focus on more certain trading directions. In the domestic bond market, the direction of the market is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher. In the equity market, large - cap stocks are more cost - effective than small - cap stocks, and there is a need to be vigilant about the US dollar liquidity crisis [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Tariff trading is repetitive, and the future path is unclear - On the early morning of April 10, 2025, Trump announced a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries while maintaining a 10% benchmark tariff rate, which caused significant fluctuations in the global financial market. The game between market expectations and reality is the main driver of financial asset price changes. For example, the US stock market had significant fluctuations around tariff expectations in the days around April 9 [11]. - The uncertainty caused by tariff policies may not subside. There are still many variables in the trade negotiations between China and the US. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs is only a start, and it is difficult to reach acceptable trade agreements within 90 days due to the wide - ranging impact of these tariffs [17][18]. 3.2 Tariff trading may focus on response rather than prediction - The low visibility of Trump's policies makes tariff prediction difficult, and the risk - return ratio of expected trading is not matched, with high trial - and - error costs. It is more advisable to focus on certain trading directions [19][20]. - In the domestic bond market, the central bank's control over the capital market has not fully relaxed, and the offshore US dollar - RMB exchange rate breaking the previous high has raised expectations of monetary policy easing. The market direction is unclear, but the certainty of betting on a bull - steepening of the interest rate curve is higher [20][22]. - In the domestic equity market, the bottom is relatively firm. When the bond market is unclear, it is recommended to focus on large - cap stocks such as the SSE 50 and CSI 300, as they can control risks while pursuing returns. Small - cap stocks like the CSI 1000 have high risks and high returns and are more suitable for investors with higher risk tolerance [26]. - The SOFR - OIS spread has shown a slight upward trend recently. The risk of basis trading caused by the significant adjustment of US Treasury yields may be the main reason. If Trump's tariff policy lasts longer than expected, it may test the US dollar liquidity [30][31].