Core Insights - The report highlights that China's economic resilience has improved compared to the previous trade friction, suggesting that internal stability may be the best countermeasure against external pressures [1] - It anticipates that policies aimed at stabilizing growth will likely be intensified, with a focus on expanding consumption and monetary easing [1][3] - The report recommends focusing on three main lines: self-sufficiency and industrial trends (semiconductors, AI, rare earths, military industry), boosting domestic demand and growth transformation (new consumption, service consumption, fertility), and defensive attributes with stable dividends [1] Group 1: Expanding Domestic Consumption - The report emphasizes that expanding domestic consumption is a priority, especially in light of increased tariffs from the U.S. which may significantly impact exports [2][21] - It suggests that existing policies supporting new consumption may see increased intensity, including broader subsidy ratios and product support ranges [2] - The service consumption sector, which constitutes a significant portion of overall consumer spending, could benefit from subsidies if extended beyond goods to services, positively impacting sectors like tourism and hospitality [26] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Structural Tools - There is an expectation of rising monetary easing, with potential for both reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to support economic growth [3][38] - The report notes that structural policy tools related to consumption and exports are likely to be introduced, which could further stimulate economic activity [3] - Historical data indicates that monetary easing typically benefits small-cap growth stocks, suggesting a potential shift in investment focus towards these sectors [39] Group 3: Fiscal Policy and Real Estate - The report anticipates a faster pace of fiscal spending, with potential expansions in areas such as consumption, employment, and foreign trade [4] - It predicts a new round of real estate policy measures may open up in the second quarter, aimed at sustaining the recovery momentum in the housing market [5] - The report highlights that the necessity to expand domestic demand is greater this year than in previous years, indicating a strategic focus on real estate as a key area for policy intervention [5][14] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that align with self-sufficiency and industrial trends, particularly in technology and strategic resources such as semiconductors and military industries [6] - It also recommends investing in consumer sectors that can benefit from domestic demand boosts, including electronics, retail, and services related to tourism and hospitality [6] - Additionally, it highlights the importance of defensive assets with stable dividends, such as utilities and consumer staples, which may provide resilience in uncertain market conditions [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 14.63 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.14 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 1.4% [1] - Despite fluctuations in profit margins due to channel investments, the company demonstrated confidence in its growth by actively opening new stores [1][4] - The children's clothing segment showed strong growth, with a revenue increase of 9.6% year-on-year, highlighting the resilience of the leading brand [2] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 5.23 billion yuan, up 9.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 380 million yuan, reflecting a significant increase of 32.1% [1] - The gross margin for 2024 was 43.8%, with a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points, while the sales expense ratio increased by 1.5 percentage points due to proactive marketing and store openings [3] Business Segments - The children's clothing and leisure segments generated revenues of 10.27 billion yuan and 4.19 billion yuan, respectively, with gross margins of 47.3% and 35.5% [2] - The company opened a net of 280 new children's clothing stores and 108 leisure stores, bringing the total to 5,514 and 2,811 stores, respectively [2] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 15.65 billion yuan, 16.56 billion yuan, and 17.42 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 7.0%, 5.8%, and 5.2% [4] - The company plans to maintain a high dividend payout ratio of 83% in 2024, indicating a commitment to shareholder returns [4]

证券研究报告 | 债券市场专题研究 | 债券研究 债券市场专题研究 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 13 日 增量资金入场，利好稳健类转债 核心观点 我们认为权益市场短期增量资金主要是汇金公司，市场风格倾向于大盘稳健风格，短 期建议投资者关注高等级、基本面稳健的转债，而对于新质生产力相关转债，短期已 经有充分调整，也可逢低买入。 ❑ 风偏回落，继续关注稳健类转债 过去一周（4 月 7 日至 4 月 11 日，下同）转债指数普遍下跌，其中可转债信息 技术、可选消费、公用事业行业指数，AA+转债指数领跌。估值方面，债性、平 衡性、股性转债的估值普遍上升。可转债市场的价格中位数小幅下降到 118.45 元，处在 2017 年以来的 69.74%水平。整体来看，当前转债市场相对此前的高涨 状态逐渐降温。 我们认为当前可转债市场跟随权益出现滞涨状态，一方面在于新质生产力相关板 块短期涨幅过高，市场在年报密集披露前后定价核心重回基本面，而该部分相关 标的普遍短期业绩预期无法落地，市场或有风格切换的可能性；另一方面，基于 2024 年财报，有关国九条新规将要落地实行，市场风格也将更加关注基本面而 非成长预期；此外，评级公 ...

核心逻辑 ❑ 一句话逻辑 中国工业气体龙头，"防御+进攻"兼备的纯内需标的；气体行业处于周期底部， 公司经历 2024 年气体行业的"极限压力测试"后，未来业绩有望拐点向上。 ❑ 超预期逻辑 杭氧股份(002430) 报告日期：2025 年 04 月 13 日 证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 化学制品 工业气体龙头：纯内需攻防兼备，周期底部业绩有望拐点向上 ——杭氧股份点评报告 1）市场认为：宏观经济承压+国际贸易摩擦背景下，公司业绩可能下滑。 2）我们认为：公司为纯内需标的，2024 年国内收入占比达 95%，受贸易摩擦风 险小。且在 2024 年气价创历史新低的背景下、业绩已基本触底。在不考虑经济 复苏的基础下，未来公司依靠管道气（量投放）+设备业务（新疆煤化工+海 外）、业绩基本盘仍能稳步向上，如果宏观经济复苏，零售气业绩潜在弹性大。 （1）管道气：公司的"防御"属性，受宏观经济波动小，稳定增长。管道气的 商业模型相对稳定、一旦项目在客户端投产、将带来公司稳定的收益和现金流， 受宏观经济波动较小。2024 年公司总制氧量累计签单量 350 万 Nm³/h，同比增长 8.6%（30 万 Nm³/h），为公 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hangzhou Bank is "Buy" [7] Core Views - Hangzhou Bank's earnings have shown significant growth, with a 25Q1 revenue and net profit increase of 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, despite a decline in growth rates compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank plans to increase its dividend payout ratio to 24.5% for 2024, up by 2.0 percentage points from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 4.50% [5][6] - The bank's loan and deposit balances grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year as of 25Q1, indicating a continuation of high growth [2] Summary by Sections Earnings Performance - In 25Q1, Hangzhou Bank's revenue and net profit increased by 2.2% and 17.3% year-on-year, although the growth rates decreased by 7.4 percentage points and 0.8 percentage points compared to 2024 [2][6] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.76%, while the provision coverage ratio decreased by 11 percentage points to 530% [1][4] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend payout ratio for 2024 is 24.5%, which is an increase of 2.0 percentage points from 2023, leading to a dividend yield of 4.50%, surpassing the average for city commercial banks [5][6] Loan and Deposit Growth - As of 25Q1, the bank's loans and deposits grew by 14.3% and 21.1% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting a sustained high growth trend [2] Interest Margin - The bank's interest margin decreased by 9 basis points to 1.35% in 24Q4, primarily due to downward pressure on asset yields [3] - It is anticipated that the decline in interest margin will narrow in 2025, supported by effective cost control on liabilities and a slowdown in the decline of asset yields [3] Asset Quality - While the bank's asset quality indicators showed improvement, there is a noted increase in non-performing loans, particularly in retail assets, with the non-performing loan generation rate rising to 0.80% in 24A, up 35 basis points from 23A [4]

证券研究报告 | 行业专题 | 电力设备 供给发力，静待拐点 ——电新行业 2025 年一季度业绩前瞻 投资要点 ❑ 光伏：供需格局改善，基本面拐点成为下一轮预期修复重点 需求侧：新能源电力入市推动光伏装机进入市场化驱动新阶段。供给侧：行业自律驱动产 业链盈利修复，技术迭代创造提升空间。供给侧改革和新技术渗透齐头并进，看好 1）制 造能力突出，穿越周期的主产业链标的；2）BC、HJT 等新技术研发实力领先，有望加速 放量的主、辅材标的；3）业务横向拓展，打造第二增长曲线的辅材公司。 ❑ 储能：户储基本面逐步好转，工商储放量趋势明确 Q1 为储能出货传统淡季，但在今年 Q1 需求好转明显，在 Q2 旺季有望持续向上。户储方 面，西欧市场户储逆变器临近去库拐点、工商储景气度上行，非欧美户储需求保持较高增 速。大储方面，全球大储需求多点开花，灵活性资源需求、能源转型需求、电网建设水平 薄弱等成为需求爆发的重要驱动力，欧洲、非欧美大储进入爆发增长阶段，国内大储价格 也有望呈现企稳态势。 ❑ 风电：需求旺盛排产紧俏，产业链涨价盈利修复 需求侧：国内一季度以来风电装机节奏加快，下游需求旺盛，产业链排产较满，2025 年 ...

分析当前我国对美出口的现状可以发现，2024 年中国直接出口美国商品金额占 比不到 15%，其中机械设备、家电、家具、纺织行业对美出口依赖度较高；而航 空航天设备、农产品、机械设备、光学和医疗设备等行业板块对美进口依赖度较 高。在特朗普政府出台"对等关税"背景下，政策不确定性剧增，美国贸易政策 不确定性指数（TPU）达到 2010 年来的最高水平。 ❑ ESG 因素在贸易壁垒中发挥着重要作用 分析中国与主要贸易对象的 ESG 壁垒，可以发现，欧盟作为可持续发展的主要 推进地区，设置了多项 ESG 规范，并通过供应链传导"布鲁塞尔效应"，追求 经济发展与可持续竞争力的平衡。美国则主要处于遏制中国高端制造业出海的战 略目的，以 ESG 为幌子限制中国企业的贸易。东南亚位于全球产业链的上游， 受到欧盟等地区 ESG 规范的影响，推动本土化 ESG 规范的落地，同时以 ESG 为 重要手段推进产业升级。 证券研究报告 | 专题研究 | ESG 及绿色金融 "对等关税"背景下 ESG 与全球贸易浅析 ——ESG 因素与全球供应链复杂性相交织 核心观点 近期，特朗普政府对全球多国征收"对等关税"引发市场关注。我们认为当前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 40.727 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.99%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 3.101 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1] - The company expects stable profit growth in 2025, driven by improved pricing and operational efficiency [4][5] - The company has a diversified product range and a strong integrated supply chain, which enhances its resilience against market fluctuations [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 9.751 billion yuan, a decrease of 6.7% quarter-on-quarter and 5.71% year-on-year, with a net profit of 642 million yuan, down 8.32% quarter-on-quarter and 32.31% year-on-year [1][2] - The total sales volume for paper products in 2024 was 7.51 million tons, an increase of 12.76% year-on-year, while pulp sales remained flat at 1.46 million tons [2] Product Analysis - Revenue breakdown for 2024 includes cultural paper at 13.0 billion yuan (down 2.3%), coated paper at 4.13 billion yuan (up 17.9%), and corrugated boxboard at 10.93 billion yuan (up 11.5%) [2] - The average price for dissolving pulp in Q4 2024 was 7,742 yuan per ton, with expectations for stable profitability in the domestic market [3] Operational Strategy - The company is optimizing its production capacity, with a total capacity exceeding 12 million tons in 2024, and plans for new production lines in 2025 [5] - The relocation of the dissolving pulp production line is expected to enhance cost efficiency and profitability starting in Q2 2025 [4] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 43.178 billion yuan, 49.892 billion yuan, and 52.912 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.02%, 15.55%, and 6.05% [12] - Net profit forecasts for the same years are 3.6 billion yuan, 4.14 billion yuan, and 4.559 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 16.08%, 15.01%, and 10.13% [12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [6] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 762 million yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 14.4%, and a net profit of 254 million yuan, which is a significant year-on-year growth of 74.6%. The high profit growth is driven by breakthroughs in overseas business, increased market share of key domestic products, and optimized expense ratios [1][5] - The company is expected to maintain a high net profit margin in 2025, despite potential short-term pressure on domestic revenue due to centralized procurement impacts [1][4] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - Domestic revenue may face short-term pressure due to centralized procurement impacts on hemorrhagic products, which saw a revenue of 402 million yuan in 2024, down 5.5% year-on-year. However, ischemic/narrowing products are expected to continue growing, with revenue from atherosclerotic narrowing products reaching 268 million yuan, up 74.6% year-on-year [2] - The acute ischemic product segment is projected to maintain high growth, with revenue of 47 million yuan in 2024, up 82.0% year-on-year, driven by new product launches [2] International Expansion - The company achieved overseas revenue of 75 million yuan in 2024, a remarkable increase of 137.6% year-on-year, marking its first year of profitability in international markets. The company has commercialized eight products across 30 countries and regions [3] Profitability - The gross profit margin is expected to remain around 70%. In 2024, the gross profit margin was 73.0%, a decrease of 3.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the decline in revenue from hemorrhagic products and price reductions from centralized procurement [4] - The net profit margin reached 32.7% in 2024, a significant increase of 12.5 percentage points year-on-year, and is expected to maintain around 30% in 2025 due to ongoing cost reduction and efficiency improvement strategies [4] Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 828 million yuan, 1.002 billion yuan, and 1.197 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth rates of 8.72%, 20.95%, and 19.49% respectively. Net profit forecasts are 256 million yuan, 321 million yuan, and 384 million yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.67%, 25.48%, and 19.74% [5][11]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The company is experiencing significant growth driven by the integration of Lejoy, the implementation of a three-expansion strategy, and cost reduction measures, leading to a revenue increase of 7% and a net profit increase of 72% in 2024 [1][2] - The company is positioned as a leader in the maternal and infant retail sector, with a unique large-store model and steady franchise development, which is expected to enhance market share and long-term investment value [2] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are projected to be 108.58 billion, 141.68 billion, and 181.84 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.48 billion, 5.39 billion, and 8.55 billion, indicating substantial growth rates [2] Financial Summary - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 93.37 billion and a net profit of 1.81 billion, with a significant increase in net profit margin to 2% [1][6] - The gross margin improved to 30% in 2024, reflecting a 0.2 percentage point increase, while the net profit margin increased by 0.8 percentage points [6] - The company aims to expand its franchise stores to over 500 by 2025, with a total of 1,046 stores as of the end of 2024 [6][7]