证券研究报告 "全民智驾"各环节弹性与核心标的梳理 行业评级：看好 2025年2月17日 | 分析师 | 邱世梁 | 分析师 | 刘巍 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | qiushiliang@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | liuwei03@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230520050001 | 证书编号 | S1230524040001 | | 分析师 | 郑景毅 | | | | 邮箱 | zhengjingyi@stocke.com.cn | 研究助理 | 张逸辰 | | 证书编号 | S1230523060001 | 邮箱 | zhangyichen@stocke.com.cn | 摘要 1、智驾平权：高阶智驾下沉至10-20w价格带，配置智驾能力成为车企胜负手。 注：渗透率预测来源于亿欧智库，后文同理。 2 添加标题 • 回溯2020-2023年中国新能源乘用车渗透率由6%快速提升至36%；截至2024年末中国高阶智驾渗透率约9%，未来到2027年 有望进入快速提升爆发期到35%的渗透率*。 • 从主机厂自身能力出发，硬件端成 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6]. Core Insights - The company is a leading digital transformation service provider in the financial technology sector, focusing on IT services and business process outsourcing for financial institutions, particularly state-owned and joint-stock commercial banks [2][13]. - The rapid development of AI and large model technologies is significantly impacting the fintech industry, with banks increasingly adopting these technologies to enhance their digital transformation efforts [3][26]. - The company has launched an AI large model service platform and several key products, which are already being implemented across various sectors, including banking and healthcare [29][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company specializes in providing IT services and business process outsourcing, primarily to financial institutions, and has a strong focus on digital transformation [2][13]. - In the first half of 2024, revenue from the banking sector accounted for 86.20% of total revenue, highlighting the company's strong client base in this area [2][23]. 2. AI and Large Model Adoption - The banking sector is rapidly embracing AI and large model technologies, which are becoming essential for digital transformation [3][26]. - The company has integrated the DeepSeek large model into its offerings, enhancing its AI product matrix and enabling clients to achieve breakthroughs in various applications [29][30]. 3. Financial Performance and Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 45.00 billion, 48.99 billion, and 53.35 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 6.08%, 8.87%, and 8.89% [4][38]. - The projected net profit for the same years is 3.13 billion, 3.48 billion, and 3.97 billion yuan, with a notable increase in 2025 and 2026 [4][38]. 4. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned favorably against comparable firms in the banking IT sector, with a projected PE ratio of 35 for 2025, significantly lower than the industry average of 68 [4][42]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the financial sector in the national strategy for information technology innovation, indicating a supportive regulatory environment for the company's growth [31][36].

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintain) [2] Core Views - The company is planning to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its global strategy and improve governance transparency [5][6] - In the first half of 2024, overseas revenue accounted for 62% of the company's main business income, with overseas sales revenue reaching 23.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8% [6][7] - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery of the engineering machinery industry, driven by increased exports, improved domestic demand, and the initiation of a renewal cycle [6][8] - The company's net profit for the first three quarters of 2024 was 4.868 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.66%, with a significant growth of 311% in non-recurring net profit in Q3 [6][9] - Profit forecasts for 2024-2026 indicate net profits of 5.8 billion, 7.6 billion, and 9.7 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 26, 19, and 15 [6][10] Financial Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 74.019 billion yuan, with a decline of 8%, followed by a growth of 5% in 2024, and further growth of 12% and 18% in 2025 and 2026, respectively [6][11] - The company's gross profit margin for overseas operations has improved to 31.57%, up 0.56 percentage points year-on-year [6][12] - The company has a total market capitalization of approximately 147.89 billion yuan and a closing price of 17.45 yuan per share [2][13]

Group 1: Macro Perspective on Humanoid Robots - Technological advancements are crucial for the birth of humanoid robots, while macro variables influence their growth[1] - The macro-level production of humanoid robots may face a dilemma regarding employment impacts, necessitating economic growth as a counterbalance[2] - The expected production capacity for humanoid robots by 2025 is around 1000 units annually at the micro level, while macro-level production is estimated to reach nearly 10 million units per year[3] Group 2: Employment and Economic Implications - The aging population in China is projected to reach 310.31 million by 2024, accounting for 22.0% of the total population, creating a demand for caregiving that humanoid robots could fulfill[17] - The direct net impact of humanoid robots on employment is likely to be negative, as they may replace more jobs than they create[41] - The challenge of reskilling displaced workers is significant, with 59% of individuals needing retraining by 2030, yet 11% unlikely to pursue such training[45] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Considerations - The U.S.-China technological competition is a catalyst for accelerating the macro-level production of humanoid robots, while potential employment disruptions pose risks to social stability[5] - The development of humanoid robots is aligned with national strategies to enhance economic growth and structural transformation, as emphasized in various government policies[39] - The macro-level production of humanoid robots is expected to significantly influence GDP growth and economic dynamics once widely adopted[26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [3] Core Views - The recent upgrade of the "Yiduo Cloud" platform significantly enhances the company's leading position in AI infrastructure, providing a "high-performance, low-cost, and easy-to-deploy" path for AI transformation [6] - The AICP computing platform shows substantial improvements in performance, with an 8-10 times increase in concurrent capabilities and over 10 times increase in total throughput compared to common developer solutions [2][8] - The integration of DeepSeek open-source ecosystem with AICP is expected to catalyze the widespread application of AI, particularly in enterprise-level large model deployments [6][7] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company announced a comprehensive upgrade to the "Yiduo Cloud" platform focused on AI, emphasizing intelligent computing for large model scenarios, application construction, and cost optimization [6] - The upgrade includes three core directions: intelligent transformation of offline infrastructure, expansion of online hosting cloud services, and the launch of an AI application innovation platform [6] Financial Forecast - The company expects revenues of 77.05 billion, 80.45 billion, and 86.60 billion yuan for 2024-2026, with net profits of 2.08 billion, 3.19 billion, and 4.46 billion yuan respectively [9] - The forecast reflects a positive outlook due to the anticipated demand for large model deployments driving cloud business revenue [9] Performance Metrics - The AICP platform demonstrates superior performance and cost efficiency, achieving 5-10 times the concurrent inference capability of traditional solutions [11] - The platform supports heterogeneous computing resources, allowing businesses to upgrade smoothly without redundant investments [11]

证券研究报告 金属行业有色价格日报 ——2025年2月18日 行业评级：看好 行业评级与免责声明 分析师 沈皓俊 邮箱 shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523080011 日度金属价格变化 | | 最新金属价格 | | | | | | | | 日度涨跌幅 | | 今年至今涨跌幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | | 0 . | 20% | | 6 | | | | 21 34% - . | | | 氢氧化锂 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | | 0 . | 21% | 1 | | | | | 18 14% - . | | | 铜 | 万元/吨 | 7 . | | 0 - | 90% | | 7 | | | | 11 58% . | . | | 黄金 | 元/克 | 681 | 8 . | 1 . | 13% | | | | | | 41 75% . | | | 电解镍 | 万元/吨 | 12 | 5 | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [8]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading clean energy player under the China National Nuclear Corporation, with a strong focus on nuclear power, which accounted for nearly 85% of its revenue in 2023 [1][16]. - The nuclear power sector in China is entering a high-growth cycle, driven by government policies aimed at increasing nuclear energy's share in the overall energy mix, projected to reach 10% by 2035 [2][37]. - The company is actively expanding its nuclear and renewable energy capacities, with significant investments planned for the coming years, including a capital increase of 14 billion RMB to support project construction [4][5]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Nuclear Power as a Foundation - The company is the only nuclear power operation platform under the China National Nuclear Corporation, focusing on nuclear, wind, and solar energy projects [1][16]. - The company has maintained stable performance, with revenue growth from 52.76 billion RMB in 2020 to 74.96 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 12.76% [25]. Section 2: Accelerated Nuclear Approvals - The Chinese government has emphasized the urgent need for nuclear power development, with approvals for new projects returning to a normalized pace, approving 11 new units in 2024 [2][33]. - The nuclear power operating licenses are scarce, with only four companies currently qualified to operate in this sector, leading to a concentrated competitive landscape [41]. Section 3: Dual-Drive of Nuclear and Renewable Energy - The company has a total installed capacity of 23.75 million kW in nuclear power and over 36 million kW in non-nuclear clean energy, with plans for further expansion [3][16]. - The company has increased its market-based trading of nuclear power, with the proportion of market-based electricity sales rising from 33.71% in 2019 to 42.65% in 2023 [3][21]. Section 4: Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 75.57 billion RMB in 2024, with a projected growth of 0.82%, and net profits of 10.77 billion RMB, reflecting a growth of 1.37% [5][13]. - The estimated price-to-earnings ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 18, 16, and 15, respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [5][13].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - Government agencies and state-owned enterprises are actively deploying DeepSeek, leading to a surge in demand for private deployment [1][12] - Integrated computing devices, known as intelligent computing all-in-one machines, are becoming the preferred choice for rapid deployment due to their low operational thresholds [2][13] - The release of DeepSeek all-in-one machines is supporting the domestic AI ecosystem, with over 60 companies, including Huawei and Lenovo, launching products based on DeepSeek [3][19] Summary by Sections 1. Private Deployment Driving Demand for All-in-One Machines - The demand for private deployment of DeepSeek has surged due to its high access volume, with the application reaching over 30 million daily active users [12] - Traditional private deployment is complex and costly, while all-in-one machines offer a "plug-and-play" solution, significantly reducing deployment time and costs [12][16] - The estimated demand for all-in-one machines is projected to reach 150,000, 390,000, and 720,000 units from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to market sizes of 123.6 billion, 293.7 billion, and 520.8 billion yuan respectively [2][18] 2. Manufacturers Actively Layout DeepSeek All-in-One Machine Production - DeepSeek all-in-one machines are categorized into inference and training machines, with prices ranging from hundreds of thousands to millions of yuan [19] - Major companies like Huawei and Lenovo are leading the market with their all-in-one machine offerings, which integrate various AI capabilities [19][21] - The all-in-one machines are designed to meet the needs of sensitive data environments, making them suitable for government and state-owned enterprises [16][19] 3. Related Companies - Key companies involved in this sector include YunSai ZhiLian, Hengsheng Electronics, China Unicom, Softcom Power, Zhiwei Intelligent, Fenghuo Communication, Shenzhou Digital, and Xinzhi Software [3]

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 02 月 17 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 02 月 17 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 【浙商宏观 李超/费瑾】宏观专题研究：中美关系回暖，货币宽松收敛——20250214 【浙商策略 廖静池/王大霁/赵闻恺】A 股策略周报：中线稳步向上，保仓位、调结构——20250215 【浙商固收 覃汉/郑莎】债券市场专题研究：负 Carry 压力或由短向长传导——20250215 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观专题研究：美国对等关税影响几何——20250215 1 重要推荐 1.1 【浙商计算机 陶韫琦/刘雯蜀】迈富时（02556）公司深度：Agent 为笔，国产销售+营销 SaaS 龙头绘就 AI 新蓝图——20250216 1、计算机-迈富时（02556） 2、推荐逻辑：公司有望受益于下游企业客户数智化需求成长叠加 AI 应用加速渗透的浪潮，实现整体经 营的快速成长 1）超预期点 【市场认为】企业管理应用 SaaS 及 IT 支出意愿与自身经营状况 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" (maintained) [6] Core Views - The launch of the iFA platform marks a significant advancement in domestic industrial automation, enhancing project development and maintenance efficiency [1][2] - The Chinese industrial software market is growing, with the iFA platform positioned to compete with Siemens' software, facilitating hardware localization and supporting the company's growth in automation and new business areas like humanoid robots [2][4] Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 9.21 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.24 billion yuan, a decrease of 1% [3] - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue reached 25.4 billion yuan, up 26% year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.35 billion yuan, reflecting a 1% increase [3] Business Segments - General Automation: Revenue for the first three quarters was 10.9 billion yuan, a 4% increase year-on-year, with significant contributions from various product lines [4][10] - New Energy Vehicles: Revenue reached 10.4 billion yuan, a remarkable 96% increase year-on-year, indicating strong growth potential [10] - Smart Elevators: Revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, down 6% year-on-year, while rail transit revenue was 340 million yuan, down 9% [10] Growth Drivers - The general automation market in China is projected to reach 311.5 billion yuan in 2023, with a growth rate of 11%, indicating substantial growth potential [4] - The company is positioned as a domestic leader in core product markets, with a clear and stable development path supported by manufacturing recovery and product expansion [4][11] Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 37.6 billion yuan, 48.2 billion yuan, and 58.0 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24%, 28%, and 21% respectively [11] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 4.8 billion yuan, 5.8 billion yuan, and 6.5 billion yuan, with growth rates of 0% in 2024, 22% in 2025, and 13% in 2026 [11]