Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Standing at the end of March and looking forward to April, investors are significantly more optimistic about the short - end than the long - end, and their attention to credit products has increased month - on - month. The inclination to increase positions has decreased marginally compared to last month [1][10]. - According to the bond market survey questionnaire results released at the end of March, there are four mainstream expectations for the April bond market: investors are more optimistic about the short - end than the long - end and their attention to credit products has increased; the expectation of reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts has decreased marginally compared to last month, with the mainstream view being that a reserve requirement ratio cut will occur in the second quarter and an interest rate cut will happen in the second half of the year; most investors' judgments on the operating ranges of the 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond yields are relatively neutral and do not deviate from the March ranges, and the market is expected to be mainly volatile; in terms of operations, most investors' ideas are neutral, and the intention to increase positions has decreased marginally compared to last month [1][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Investor Preference for Short - Term Bonds - A bond market survey questionnaire was released on March 26, 2025, and 568 valid questionnaires were received by 9 p.m. that night, covering various institutional and individual investors [8]. 2. Expectations for Treasury Bond Yields - For the 10 - year Treasury bond yield in April, most investors think the lower limit is concentrated in 1.70% - 1.75% (inclusive) and 1.75% - 1.80% (inclusive), accounting for 37% and 34% respectively. The upper limit is mainly considered to be 1.85% - 1.90% (inclusive) by 33% of investors and 1.80% - 1.85% (inclusive) by 22% of investors. The judgment on the operating range is similar to the 1.70% - 1.90% range in March [11]. - For the 30 - year Treasury bond yield in April, 42% of investors think the lower limit is 1.90% - 1.95% (inclusive), and 33% think it is 1.95% - 2.0% (inclusive). 43% of investors think the upper limit is 2.00% - 2.10% (inclusive), and 32% think it is 2.10% - 2.20% (inclusive). The judgment is mainly range - bound, with the upper limit rising 5bp from the March high and the lower limit not lower than the March low [12]. 3. Expectations for the Second - Quarter Economic Trend - Investors have significant differences in their views on the second - quarter economic trend. 30% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter weaker than the seasonal level", 27% think it will be "both year - on - year and quarter - on - quarter decline", 26% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter flat with the seasonal level", and 17% think it will be "year - on - year recovery, quarter - on - quarter exceeding the seasonal level". Overall, the views are conservative and there are few optimists [13][16]. 4. Expectations for Reserve Requirement Ratio Cuts and Interest Rate Cuts - Regarding reserve requirement ratio cuts, 39% of investors think it will happen in April, and 38% think it will be in May - June. Regarding interest rate cuts, 44% of investors think it will be in the third quarter, 22% think it will be in May - June, and 20% think there will be no interest rate cut in 2025. Compared with last month, the expectation of interest rate cuts has further decreased [18][19]. 5. Impact of MLF Innovative Renewal on the Bond Market - 45% of investors think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended; 30% think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market can continue; 19% think it is not a structural interest rate cut, and the positive impact on the bond market has ended. Investors generally think it can be regarded as a structural interest rate cut [20]. 6. Expectations for the April Bond Market Trend - 25% of investors think the interest rate curve will strengthen overall and be bull - steep in April, 22% think it will strengthen overall and be bull - flat, and 21% think the short - end will be strong and the long - end will be weak. Optimists about the market are in the majority, and the optimism about the short - end is higher [22]. 7. Bond Market Operation Strategies - 36% of investors think they should keep the positions basically stable; 31% think they should hold cash and wait to add positions after the market corrects to the expected level; 17% think they can start to add positions; 17% think they should take appropriate profits and reduce positions. Compared with the end of February, the inclination to add positions has decreased marginally [26]. 8. Preferred Bond Varieties in April - 18% and 16% of investors think the opportunities for medium - short - term interest - rate bonds and inter - bank certificates of deposit are relatively certain. 12% and 11% are more optimistic about medium - low - grade urban investment bonds and long - term interest - rate bonds. About 9% prefer local government bonds and high - grade urban investment bonds. Investors have a higher preference for interest - rate products and a marginal increase in the preference for credit products compared to last month, and a higher preference for short - term varieties [30]. 9. Main Logic of Bond Market Pricing in April - 34% of investors think the central bank's monetary policy attitude and the capital market trend are the main pricing logics for the bond market in April. 19% and 16% think fundamental data such as real estate and PMI and the performance of the equity market are the main pricing logics. The central bank's monetary policy attitude and the capital market trend are still the most concerned factors, and the attention to domestic fundamentals and government bond issuance has increased marginally [32].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company continues to experience high growth in revenue and net profit, with a year-on-year revenue increase of 10.5% and a net profit increase of 16.2% for 2024, although the growth rate has slightly slowed compared to the first three quarters of the year [2][3] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77% as of the end of Q4 2024, with a provision coverage ratio of 501%, indicating a solid asset quality despite rising risks in small and micro loans [5][6] - The bank's net interest margin showed a year-on-year decline of 15 basis points to 2.71%, but the rate of decline has narrowed, suggesting potential for improvement in the future [4][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10,909 million and a net profit of 3,813 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.5% and 16.2% respectively [12] - The interest income improved by 1.4% compared to the first three quarters of 2024, reaching 7.5% [2] - The bank's asset impairment losses turned into a positive contribution to profit growth, with a year-on-year decrease of 7% in asset impairment losses for 2024 [2] Loan Growth - Loan growth has been slowing, with a decrease of 1.4% in loan growth rate to 8.3% by the end of Q4 2024, indicating weak demand for small and micro loans [3] - The bank is actively promoting the high-quality development of village banks, which may unlock future loan growth potential if economic conditions improve [3] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan ratio remained stable at 0.77%, with a slight decrease in the attention rate to 1.49% [5] - The bank's provision coverage ratio decreased by 28% to 501%, but remains high, allowing for potential profit support through appropriate provision releases [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The bank is expected to achieve a net profit growth of 10.45%/10.48%/11.02% for 2025-2027, with corresponding book values per share of 10.41/11.68/13.09 [6][12] - The target price is set at 8.96 yuan per share, indicating a potential upside of 25% based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.86 for 2025 [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The asset quality indicators of the company have improved sequentially, with a slight increase in the dividend payout ratio to 30.2% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders grew by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a return to profit growth, while revenue increased by 0.7% year-on-year, although the growth rate declined by 1 percentage point sequentially [2] - The significant improvement in impairment losses has supported profitability, with a 1.6% year-on-year decrease in impairment losses for 2024, contrasting with a 14.3% increase in the first three quarters [2] - The net interest margin showed resilience, decreasing by only 1 basis point to 1.56% in Q4 2024, better than expected due to improved funding costs [3] - The company's asset quality is showing a positive turning point, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.07% at the end of Q4 2024, down 1 basis point from Q3 2024 [4] - The dividend payout ratio has slightly increased, reinforcing the dividend logic, with a dividend yield of 4.93% as of March 27, 2025 [5] - Profit forecasts indicate a net profit growth of 0.42%/4.45%/5.46% for 2025-2027, with a target price of 25.82 CNY per share, implying a 20% upside from the current price [6] Summary by Sections Financial Overview - The company's total revenue for 2024 was 212,226 million CNY, with a year-on-year growth of 0.66% [12] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 was 77,205 million CNY, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.12% [12] - The company reported a non-performing loan balance of 61,477 million CNY, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.07% [13] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio improved to 1.07% at the end of Q4 2024, with a real NPL generation rate decreasing by 19 basis points to 1.40% [4] - The company has seen a significant improvement in credit card risk, while real estate risk remains a concern [4] Profitability and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a net interest margin under pressure but is projected to perform better in 2025 compared to 2024 due to effective cost control [3] - The forecasted earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is 3.51 CNY, with projected growth in subsequent years [14]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024 reached 26.229 billion yuan, a significant increase of 201.1% year-on-year, with a weighted ROE of 25.88%, up by 17.94 percentage points [1] - The proposed final dividend per share is 1.99 yuan, leading to a total dividend payout of 7.893 billion yuan for the year, a year-on-year increase of 197.6%, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.1% [1] - The new business value (NBV) for 2024 was 6.253 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 106.8%, driven by an increase in the new business value rate [2][3] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company reported a net profit of 26.229 billion yuan, a 201.1% increase year-on-year, and a weighted ROE of 25.88%, up 17.94 percentage points [1] - The NBV was 6.253 billion yuan, with a significant increase of 106.8% year-on-year [2] - The total dividend for 2024 reached 7.893 billion yuan, a 197.6% increase year-on-year, with a dividend payout ratio of 30.1% [1] New Business Value (NBV) - The increase in NBV was primarily driven by a 7.9 percentage point rise in the new business value rate, reaching 14.6% [2] - The company's new single premium decreased by 5% due to a strategic reduction in the scale of single premium business through the bank insurance channel [2] Channel Contributions - The bank insurance channel contributed over 40% to the NBV, with a remarkable growth of 516% year-on-year, reaching 2.509 billion yuan [3] - The number of agents decreased by 12.3% to 136,000, while the average monthly performance of agents improved by 41% year-on-year [3] - The company has optimized its product structure and improved service quality, leading to better business quality and retention rates [3] Investment Performance - The company's investment assets increased by 21.1% to 1.63 trillion yuan in 2024, with total investment income reaching 79.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 251.6% [4] - The net investment yield, total investment yield, and comprehensive investment yield were 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively [4] - The company strategically shifted towards high-dividend OCI-type equity assets, with investments in such assets growing from 5.370 billion yuan to 30.640 billion yuan, an increase of 470.6% [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profit growth rates of -31.2%, +13.6%, and +34.4% for 2025-2027 [5] - The target price is set at 62.58 yuan, corresponding to a 2025 PEV of 0.73 times [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [6]. Core Insights - The company, Guming, is the second-largest fresh tea beverage brand in the full price segment and the largest in the mid-price segment, with a focus on expanding its store network and increasing GMV [1][15]. - Guming's revenue for the first nine months of 2024 reached 6.44 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, with an adjusted profit of 1.15 billion RMB, up 10.0% [1][5]. - The company has a significant market share in second-tier and lower cities, with a projected CAGR of 22.5% from 2024 to 2028 [1][46]. Summary by Sections Basic Information - Guming has established a network of 9,778 stores as of September 30, 2024, with a product price range of 10-18 RMB [1][15]. - The company achieved a GMV of 19.2 billion RMB in 2023, reflecting a growth of 37.2% [15][35]. Industry Analysis - The fresh beverage market in China is projected to grow at a CAGR of 16.7% from 2024 to 2028, with the fresh tea beverage segment expected to see a CAGR of 20.8% during the same period [46][52]. - Guming holds a market share of approximately 4.8% in the fresh beverage market, with a leading position in the mid-price fresh tea segment [48][52]. Core Competitiveness - Guming employs a regional densification strategy for high-quality expansion, achieving over 25% market share in key provinces by GMV [2][17]. - The company has a strong franchisee performance, with single-store operating profits reaching 376,000 RMB and a profit margin of 20.2% [2][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for Guming from 2024 to 2026 are 8.72 billion, 10.07 billion, and 11.36 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 1.23 billion, 1.74 billion, and 1.97 billion RMB [3][5]. - The report suggests a 20% valuation premium due to Guming's extensive expansion potential, leading to a target valuation of 25X PE for 2025 [3][5].

证券研究报告 | 浙商早知道 报告日期：2025 年 03 月 28 日 浙商早知道 2025 年 03 月 28 日 ：张延兵 执业证书编号：S1230511010020 ：021-80106048 大势：周四上证指数上涨 0.2%，沪深 300 上涨 0.3%，科创 50 上涨 1.1%，中证 1000 下跌 0.1%，创业板指上涨 0.2%， 恒生指数上涨 0.4%。 行业：周四表现最好的行业分别是医药生物（+1.9%)、食品饮料（+0.9%)、基础化工（+0.8%)、电子（+0.5%)、 银行（+0.5%)，表现最差的行业分别是有色金属（-1.3%)、社会服务（-1.3%)、公用事业（-1.2%)、钢铁（-1.1%)、 综合（-1.1%)。 资金：周四沪深两市总成交额为 11906 亿元，南下资金净流入 41.4 亿港元。 【浙商宏观 李超/林成炜】宏观深度报告：特朗普难以复制里根时代经济的"死而后生"——20250327 【浙商宏观 李超/潘高远】宏观专题研究：工业利润:"两新"支撑修复，装备制造高增——20250327 浙商早报 ：zhangyanbing@stocke.com.cn 市场总览 重 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [8] Core Views - The company achieved a total revenue of 22.323 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 24.67%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 562 million yuan, up 31.72% year-on-year [1] - The enameled wire business saw revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in 2024, with a sales volume of 280,000 tons, marking a 27% increase in revenue and a 17.9% increase in sales volume [2] - The subsidiary Hengfeng Special Conductor is expanding its production capacity for high-speed silver-plated wires, with an expected annual capacity release of 5,000 tons after expansion [3] - The company holds an 18.29% stake in Shanghai Superconductor, which focuses on high-temperature superconducting materials and is expected to benefit from the commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion [4] - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 24.729 billion, 27.567 billion, and 30.749 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 709 million, 884 million, and 1.095 billion yuan [5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company reported total revenue of 22.323 billion yuan and a net profit of 562 million yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 24.67% and 31.72% [1] - The company forecasts revenues of 24.729 billion yuan in 2025, 27.567 billion yuan in 2026, and 30.749 billion yuan in 2027, with net profits expected to reach 709 million yuan, 884 million yuan, and 1.095 billion yuan during the same period [5][7] Business Development - The enameled wire segment is performing well, with a revenue of 16.1 billion yuan and a sales volume of 280,000 tons in 2024, indicating strong demand in various sectors including automotive and robotics [2] - Hengfeng Special Conductor is expanding its production capacity for high-speed silver-plated wires, which are in high demand due to the growth in AI servers and data centers [3] - Shanghai Superconductor, in which the company is the largest shareholder, is expanding its production capacity for high-temperature superconducting materials, positioning itself as a key supplier in the nuclear fusion sector [4]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [8] Core Views - The company has shown strong performance with a significant increase in net profit and new business value (NBV) [1][6] - The life insurance segment's NBV growth is primarily driven by an increase in new business value rate [2] - The property insurance segment faced challenges with an increased claims ratio affecting the combined ratio (COR) [3] - The investment return rates have significantly improved, contributing to the overall profit increase [4] Summary by Sections Performance Overview - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders reached 44.96 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [1] - The operating profit attributable to shareholders was 34.43 billion yuan, up 2.5% year-on-year [1] - The NBV for life insurance was 13.26 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase year-on-year [1] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance was 98.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year [1] Life Insurance - The NBV growth in 2024 was driven by an increase in the new business value rate, which rose by 3.5 percentage points to 16.8% [2] - New single premium decreased slightly by 4.1% year-on-year, with agent channel premiums increasing by 14% while bank insurance channel premiums decreased by 15.6% [2] - The company is focusing on high-quality transformation across various channels, expecting continued rapid growth in NBV [2] Property Insurance - The original insurance premium for property insurance was 201.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [3] - The claims ratio increased by 1.7 percentage points, impacting the overall COR, which rose to 98.6% [3] - The company is enhancing risk management and optimizing business structure to improve future COR [3] Investment - The total investment scale reached 2.73 trillion yuan, a 21.5% increase compared to the end of 2023 [4] - The net investment return rate was 3.8%, while the total investment return rate was 5.6%, showing a significant improvement [4] - The total investment income was 120.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130.5% [4] Assumption Adjustments - The company adjusted its long-term investment return rate assumption to 4.0% and the risk discount rate to 8.5%, resulting in a 23.3% decrease in NBV compared to previous assumptions [5] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is expected to maintain strong performance with projected net profit growth rates of 12%, 19.8%, and 26.8% for 2025-2027 [6] - The target price is set at 48.49 yuan, corresponding to a 0.78 times price to embedded value (PEV) for 2025 [6]

证券研究报告| 市场评论| ESG 及绿色金融 市场评论 报告日期:2025年03月27日 碳市场扩容正式落地,关注行业转型风险与高质量发展机遇 碳市场扩容政策点评 核心观点 2025年3月26日,生态环境部发布《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶 炼行业工作方案》,碳市场扩容正式落地,从"电解铝"更新为"铝冶炼"行业。整 体覆盖碳排放量增长约60%,进一步完善碳定价机制,助力行业高质量发展,推动建 成更加有效、更有活力、更具国际影响力的碳市场。 □ 多维度扩容推动碳市场从"单一"向"多元"升级,完善碳定价机制 此次扩围后. 重点排放单位数量从约 2200 家增长至约 3700 家,增幅约 68%;覆 盖排放量从约50亿吨增长至约80亿吨,增幅约60%;覆盖全国二氧化碳排放总 量占比从约 40%增长至约60%,增幅约50%。全国碳市场从仅发电行业向多行业 融合、从仅能源活动向兼顾能源活动与工业过程排放、从仅二氧化碳向多种温室 气体进行三重升级。市场活跃度有望提升,助力完善碳定价机制;降低出口欧盟 分析师:祁星 执业证书号: S1230524120002 qixing(a)stocke.com.cn 研究 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 核心观点 2025 年 1-2 月工业企业利润延续修复态势， "两新"政策积极发力推动，装备制造业 利润增速明显回升，带动工业利润修复。但以价换量特征仍然显著，价格对工业企业 利润增速的压制较大。工业稳增长带动工业生产高增，生产前置发力于需求，导致库 存阶段脉冲向上，但难改去库趋势，库存周期平坦化、跳跃化特征仍将延续。 我们认为，企业利润增速的回升仍待消费、价格的修复进一步发力，短期内考虑到中 美关系正处于关键性转折节点，有望走向阶段性缓和，风险偏好将成为市场主线，或 将迎来股债双牛行情。 ❑ 工业利润开局延续修复态势，以价换量特征显著 2025 年 1-2 月全国规模以上工业企业利润总额为 9109.9 亿元，比上年下降 0.3%， 利润降幅有所收窄。我们认为，"两新"政策持续发力是推动工业企业利润增速持 续修复的主要因素，在一揽子增量政策及时出台后，相关行业利润改善明显。但 以价换量特征较为显著，推动工业品价格的合理回升仍有较大空间。 在大规模设备更新相关政策带动下，通用设备、专用设备行业利润同比分别增长 6.0%、5.9%。其中，通用零部件制造、采矿冶金建筑 ...