证券研究报告 合规时代开启，全球竞赛加速 ——稳定币行业深度报告 行业评级：看好 2025 年 7 月 17 日 分析师 刘雯蜀 分析师 童非 研究助理 张致远 邮箱 liuwenshu03@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 tongfei01@stocke.com.cn 邮箱 zhangzhiyuan@stocke.com.cn 证书编号 S1230523020002 证书编号 S1230524050005 摘要 2 1、稳定币：币值稳定的数字货币 • 稳定币是锚定法币、商品或加密资产的加密数字货币，通过足额抵押或算法调节供应量维持价值稳定。相较传统支付，稳定币依托区块链实现点 对点实时清算，交易成本低（如币安$ENA合约资金费率仅为0.25%，2023 Q3全球平均汇款成本为6.18%）、高效（只需几秒到几分钟内，传统 时间需3-5天）、门槛低（稳定币最低只需几美元即可转账）。稳定币已广泛用于交易撮合、DeFi、供应链金融及跨境支付，成为数字经济生态的 重要基石。 2、核心催化：香港《稳定币条例》8月1日实施，美国推进GENIUS法案 95% • 2025年6月6日，香港特区政府在宪报发布公告，指定202 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Positive" (maintained) [6] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector is expected to continue its positive performance in H1 2025, with a narrowing of performance differentiation among insurance companies. The average growth rate of new business value (NBV) for life insurance is projected at 34.1%, and net profit is expected to improve overall, with the securities industry net profit anticipated to grow by 46.4% [1][4] Summary by Sections Insurance Industry Performance Outlook - For H1 2025, major listed insurance companies are expected to see a continued rapid increase in NBV, with an average growth rate of 34.1%. Specific growth rates are projected as follows: New China Life (45.9%) > Ping An (41.8%) > China Pacific Insurance (32.7%) > China Life (16.1%) [2] - Factors driving this growth include lower preset interest rates compared to the same period last year, a decrease in expense ratios due to regulatory requirements, and an optimized business structure focusing on increasing regular premium products while reducing single premium business [2] - The comprehensive cost ratio (COR) for property insurance is expected to improve by 1.4 percentage points to 95.4% due to a normal state of operations compared to the previous year's extreme weather events [3] - Overall net profit for insurance companies is expected to improve, driven by increased investment income, with the equity market performing better than the previous year [3] Securities Industry Performance Outlook - The securities industry is projected to see a net profit growth of 46.4% year-on-year for H1 2025. The brokerage business is expected to benefit from active market trading, with daily average stock fund turnover reaching 1.5 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 57% [4] - The investment banking sector is expected to see significant growth, with equity underwriting volumes increasing over 13 times year-on-year, driven by refinancing activities [4] - Asset management business is projected to see a slight decline in net income due to decreased management fees, despite a small year-on-year increase in public fund scale [4][5] - The credit business is expected to see a decline in net income due to pressure on interest margins, despite a year-on-year increase in average margin financing balances [5] - Investment income is expected to grow by 32% year-on-year, supported by a recovering equity and bond market [8] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the non-bank sector in the short term, with both numerator and denominator factors aligning for upward momentum. In the medium to long term, continued policy support and deepening reforms are expected to enhance the strategic allocation value of the sector, which is currently undervalued [9] - Specific stock recommendations include New China Life, China Life Insurance, China Pacific Insurance, GF Securities, Xiangcai Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Guiding Compass, Lianlian Digital, and OSL Group [9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [4] Core Insights - The main brand of the company shows steady growth, with a low single-digit increase in revenue for Q2 2025, while Saucony's revenue grew by over 20% year-on-year, with a strategic adjustment in e-commerce channels leading to a reduction in low-priced products and tighter discounts [1][2] - The company expects Saucony's revenue to grow by 30-40% for the full year, maintaining its guidance despite a slowdown in Q2 due to strategic adjustments [2] - The Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) strategy will officially start in Q4 2025, aiming to optimize retail structure and improve operational efficiency [2] Financial Summary - The projected revenue for 2025 is approximately 14.39 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 6% [4] - The expected net profit for 2025 is around 1.37 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.92% [4] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.50 yuan for 2025, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.86 [4]

Market Overview - On July 16, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.03%, the CSI 300 fell by 0.3%, the STAR 50 rose by 0.14%, the CSI 1000 increased by 0.3%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.22%, and the Hang Seng Index declined by 0.29% [4] - The best-performing industries on July 16 were social services (+1.13%), automotive (+1.07%), pharmaceutical and biotechnology (+0.95%), light industry manufacturing (+0.94%), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (+0.85%). The worst-performing industries were steel (-1.28%), banking (-0.74%), non-ferrous metals (-0.45%), non-bank financials (-0.43%), and construction decoration (-0.42%) [4] - The total trading volume of the A-share market on July 16 was 14,617.34 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 1.603 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights - The macroeconomic research indicates that with the gradual implementation of tariffs, external demand is expected to weaken, signaling an approaching downturn in exports. Attention is drawn to the impact of tariff conflicts on companies establishing overseas warehouses for cross-border stockpiling, which may disrupt export rhythms [5] - The macroeconomic deep report highlights that the economic recovery in June shows a good momentum, with the actual GDP growth in the second quarter at 5.2%. The growth rate of industrial added value above designated size in June increased by 6.8% year-on-year, indicating a significant divergence between supply and demand [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company is expected to achieve strong revenue growth in 25H1, with a forecasted revenue of 60.13 billion, representing an 18% year-on-year increase, outperforming market expectations [1] - Profit is projected to decline to between 4.43 billion and 5.41 billion, a decrease of 21% to 35% year-on-year, with an average estimate of 4.92 billion, indicating a significant narrowing of the profit decline in Q2 [1][2] - The decline in profit is attributed to increased incentive costs, marketing investments, and legal service fees, with adjusted net profit expected to be between 6.88 billion and 7.87 billion, reflecting a year-on-year change of -9% to +4% [2] Revenue Insights - The company's revenue from vaping products has shown resilience due to regulatory improvements, with all products being compliant [3] - The implementation of bans on disposable e-cigarettes in various regions, including the UK and New Zealand, has led to a shift towards open and refillable e-cigarettes, benefiting the company's sales [3] Future Outlook - The recent trial sales of HNB products in Japan have received positive feedback, with expectations for significant market share growth as the product is set for nationwide launch on September 1 [4] - The pricing strategy for Glo Hilo in Japan has been adjusted to enhance supply chain value distribution, indicating a strong competitive position [4] Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 131.61 billion, 155.90 billion, and 186.33 billion from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 11.55%, 18.45%, and 19.52% respectively [5] - Net profit is expected to reach 13.11 billion, 20.40 billion, and 27.63 billion during the same period, with growth rates of 0.57%, 55.68%, and 35.40% respectively [5] - The current market capitalization corresponds to a PE ratio of 90.72X, 58.28X, and 43.04X for the years 2025 to 2027 [5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is upgraded to "Buy" [5][13]. Core Insights - The launch of the AI question-answering system class is expected to help the company regain market share and enhance profitability, marking a pivotal moment for growth [7][12]. - The AI product line is anticipated to expand beyond public examination training to include civil service and teaching qualification exams, leveraging the company's existing user base and technology [3][4]. - The company is projected to achieve a revenue of approximately 800 million yuan from the AI question-answering system class in 2025, with a potential user base exceeding 200,000 [2][5]. Summary by Sections AI Product Development - The AI question-answering system class was launched on April 7, 2025, initially priced at 499 yuan, with a subsequent price adjustment to 399 yuan expected to double daily order numbers [2]. - The AI teacher product, "Fenbi Head," was launched on August 1, 2024, significantly improving teacher efficiency and user satisfaction [2][3]. Market Potential - The AI question-answering system class is projected to generate revenues of 4.7 billion to 15.7 billion yuan under various market penetration scenarios [5][8]. - The civil service training market, while smaller than K12, presents a favorable competitive landscape for the company, which is currently the only player with an internet or AI-driven approach [3][4]. Financial Projections - The company is expected to achieve total revenues of 2.805 billion yuan in 2025, with a slight growth of 0.54% year-on-year, and a net profit of 312 million yuan, reflecting a growth of 30.4% [15][12]. - The projected earnings per share for 2025 is 0.14 yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.39 [15][12]. Competitive Advantage - The AI question-answering system class offers a high cost-performance ratio, appealing to a price-sensitive consumer base, which is crucial in the current competitive environment [4][10]. - The company’s extensive user base and continuous product iteration are expected to enhance brand loyalty and market penetration [9][10].

Group 1: Core Insights - Gold has emerged as a strong asset since 2018, outperforming most other asset classes due to factors like weakening dollar credit, normalized global geopolitical risks, and rising economic uncertainty [1] - Since 2018, only a few assets, such as certain cryptocurrencies and small-cap stocks, have managed to yield positive returns compared to gold, highlighting the challenges faced by traditional investments [1][14] Group 2: Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, U.S., Indian, and European stocks have underperformed gold, with nominal growth driven by liquidity rather than intrinsic value [2][16] - Fixed income assets, including U.S. and Chinese government bonds, have shown no advantage against gold, with significant declines in returns when priced in gold [2][37][38] - Commodities have generally underperformed gold, with precious metals leading, followed by industrial metals and energy products [2][44] - Virtual assets, particularly cryptocurrencies, have outperformed gold due to their advantages in payment convenience, technological innovation, and limited supply [2][54][55] - Real estate prices in major economies have also lagged behind gold, with the U.S. and India showing relatively smaller declines [2][21] Group 3: Industry Performance - Among primary industries, resource and new economy sectors have performed relatively well, while traditional consumer goods and old economy sectors have struggled against gold [3] - In the past year, financial and technology sectors have outperformed gold, while resource, consumer, and real estate sectors have underperformed [3][4] - Within secondary industries, emerging technologies have outperformed traditional sectors, and financial services have benefited from favorable market conditions [4][5] Group 4: Investment Styles - The micro-cap stock index has significantly outperformed gold since 2018, driven by a natural "contrarian investment mechanism" and liquidity premiums [5] - In the past year, micro-cap and financial styles have outperformed gold, while dividend styles have lagged [5][6] Group 5: Strategy Indices - Small-cap factors have shown strong performance since 2018, with pre-announcement and positive surprise indices performing relatively well [6] - In the past year, small-cap factors have remained strong, while large-cap factors have underperformed gold [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report details the development of domestic bond ETFs, liquidity analysis of bond - making varieties in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, and the investment application of bond ETFs [1]. - The scale of bond ETFs has expanded rapidly in the past year, exceeding 40 billion yuan for the first time. As of July 15, 2025, bond ETFs are mainly divided into interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs [1][11]. - Since July 10, 2025, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs have been established. The share of ETFs linked to the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index has increased the most, and the trading volume of CSI short - term financing - related ETFs has been the most active [2][17]. - Bond ETFs have asset - allocation and trading attributes. Their trading is more flexible, efficient, and leveraged, with high information transparency. The main strategies include primary - secondary market price arbitrage, intraday T + 0 trading, and pledge - repurchase leveraging [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 What are Bond ETFs? - **Domestic Bond ETF Overview**: In the past year, the scale of domestic bond ETFs has developed significantly, exceeding 40 billion yuan, but the variety is still single. As of July 15, 2025, there are 16 interest - rate bond ETFs, and 15 bond ETFs have a scale of over 1 billion yuan. The top five in scale are Fuguo Policy Financial Bond ETF, Haifutong Short - term Financing ETF, Boshi Convertible Bond ETF, E Fund Company Bond ETF, and Southern Shanghai Stock Exchange Company Bond ETF. Since July 10, 2025, 10 science - innovation bond ETFs have been established [11][15][16]. - **Recent Performance Tracking of Bond ETFs**: In terms of share changes, the share of ETFs linked to the CSI Convertible Bond and Exchangeable Bond Index has increased the most. In terms of share change rate, the share of ETFs with the Shanghai 30 - year Treasury Bond Index as the underlying index has increased by about 15 million shares (+21.74%). In terms of trading activity, CSI short - term financing - related ETFs have the most active trading volume [17]. 3.2 Exchange Bond Liquidity Analysis - Overall, the trading volume and liquidity of bonds on the Shanghai Stock Exchange are better than those on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [19]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange Interest - Rate Bond Market - Making Varieties**: In the past month, among the interest - rate bond market - making varieties on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, those maturing within 3 years have the most active trading volume, followed by those maturing within 3 - 5 years. The liquidity is negatively correlated with the standard term [20]. - **Shanghai Stock Exchange Credit - Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among the credit - bond market - making varieties on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in the past month, those maturing over 10 years have the most active liquidity, followed by those maturing within 3 years [22]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange Interest - Rate Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among the interest - rate bond market - making varieties on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the past month, the average trading volume of varieties maturing within 3 years is the highest, followed by those maturing over 10 years [23]. - **Shenzhen Stock Exchange Credit - Bond Market - Making Varieties**: Among all the credit - bond market - making varieties on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange in the past month, the varieties maturing within 3 - 5 years have the highest turnover rate, followed by those maturing over 10 years [24]. 3.3 Investment Application of Bond ETFs - Bond ETFs have the functions of asset allocation and trend trading. Compared with ordinary over - the - counter bond index funds, they have additional investment strategies [25]. - **Investment Strategies**: Asset allocation (holding strategy), trend (band operation), arbitrage strategy (discount - premium), arbitrage (spot - futures arbitrage), dividend strategy, event - driven strategy, intraday T + 0 strategy, and leverage strategy [27]. - **Advantages**: Primary - secondary market price arbitrage, intraday T + 0 trading, and the ability to use pledge - repurchase to add leverage [28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue growth is slightly slower than Q1 but meets expectations, with a small single-digit increase across all platforms [1] - The company has signed a formal agreement with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic team from 2025 to 2028, with marketing efforts expected to ramp up starting in May [3] - The company anticipates increased resource investment in professional research and sports sponsorships, aiming for long-term positioning in the sports market [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 28.87 billion, 30.32 billion, and 31.75 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.36 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.22 billion CNY, with a significant drop of 22% in 2025 followed by recoveries of 19% and 15% in the subsequent years [4] Product Performance - In Q2, the running and cross-training categories continue to lead with high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a 20% decline [2] - The company is expected to gradually enrich its product offerings related to basketball, especially with the promotion of the "Yushua" series shoes following Yang Hansheng's selection for the NBA [2] Marketing and Sponsorship - The company has initiated its Olympic marketing strategy with the launch of the "Glory" series products, and further marketing activities are anticipated with upcoming events like the Chengdu World Games and the Milan Winter Olympics [3]

Group 1: Green Finance Directory Overview - The latest "Green Finance Directory" clarifies the types of projects included in green finance and relevant national economic sectors, marking a significant step towards a classification system that aligns with China's real economy characteristics[11] - Compared to the 2024 version, the new directory adds two secondary sectors: "Green Trade" and "Green Consumption," resulting in 41 new tertiary projects, while removing 16 projects primarily from the fossil energy sector[23] - The directory retains the framework of the 2024 "Green Low-Carbon Transition Industry Directory," while expanding its focus on green initiatives[3] Group 2: Carbon Emission Reduction and Project Classification - The directory introduces a "carbon reduction benefit" label, categorizing projects into those with direct carbon reduction benefits, those contributing to low-carbon empowerment, and unlabeled projects, providing essential guidance for financial institutions[4] - By matching green finance support projects with real economic activities, the directory enhances the practical utility and effectiveness of the classification system, aiding financial institutions and enterprises in tracking green finance[19] - The directory's implementation is set for October 1, 2025, and will apply to various green financial products, significantly broadening the supply of green financial tools[26] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - Potential risks include slower-than-expected economic recovery, which could impact corporate ESG investments and consumer focus on ESG values[29] - Delays in the implementation of ESG-related policies may hinder the growth of green financial products and reduce investor confidence[29] - Market sentiment and preference volatility pose risks, as shifts in investor focus could lead to funding withdrawals from ESG investments[29]