❑ 市场板块行情回顾 汽车行业周报 本周 CS 汽车+0.1%。本周（12 月 7 日至 12 月 13 日，下同）上证 A 指涨跌 幅为-0.3%，深证 A 指涨跌幅为+0.2%，创业板涨跌幅为+2.7%。本周各行业 板块多数下跌，涨幅较大的行业板块为 CS 通信（+5.9%）、CS 国防军工 （+3.6%）和 CS 电子（+2.5%），下跌的行业板块为 CS 煤炭（-3.8%）、 CS 石油石化（-3.4%）和 CS 纺织服装（-2.7%）。 汽车产业链各板块行情：本周，汽车行业二级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车及 其他板块涨幅居前，周涨幅均为+1.7%，汽车服务板块周度有所下跌，周涨幅 为-5.2%。汽车行业三级板块多数上涨，其中摩托车和商用载客车板块涨幅较 大，周涨幅分别为+2.5%和+1.4%，汽车经销商和汽车综合服务板块周度有所 下跌，周跌幅分别为-6.8%和-4.1%。 ❑ 个股行情回顾 汽车板块个股：本周，汽车板块个股上涨居多。其中，涨幅居前的个股有超 捷股份（+39.0%）、华懋科技（+28.5%）和跃岭股份（+21.9%）；跌幅居 前的个股有厦门信达（-13.6%）、嵘泰股份（-10.9%）和隆 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 新房网签面积同比降幅收窄，二手房网签面积同比降幅扩大 推荐（维持） ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 12 月 11 日） | 新房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | 二手房（12 | 月 | 1 日-12 月 | 11 日） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 11 月 | | 样本城市 | -30% | -收窄 | +5 PCT | 样本城市 | -34% | -扩大 | -19 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | 一线城市 | -31% | -收窄 | +10 PCT | 一线城市 | -32% | -扩大 | -7 PCT | | （4 城） ...

Domestic Economic Outlook - The Central Political Bureau meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference have outlined the economic structure direction for the coming year, focusing on stimulating service consumption, enhancing total factor productivity, and managing real estate and local debt risks[6]. - November CPI showed a significant year-on-year increase, expected to rise to around 1.2% in December, while PPI is projected to be around -2.0%[6]. International Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in December and plans to purchase $40 billion in short-term bonds over the next 30 days, with a lower probability of further rate cuts in Q1 2026[18]. - The Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates on December 19, which could impact global equity markets, particularly the S&P 500, which has historically reacted negatively to Japanese rate hikes[18]. Asset Market Insights - The domestic asset market may see a gradual improvement, with a focus on technology and innovative pharmaceuticals in Hong Kong after mid-January 2026[19]. - The offshore RMB has appreciated due to the Fed's rate cut, seasonal currency settlement, and easing US-China trade tensions, but the overall macroeconomic situation will determine if this leads to a stronger performance in Hong Kong and A-shares[19]. Market Performance - The A-share market showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.34%, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext indices rose by 0.84% and 2.74%, respectively[38]. - The Hang Seng Index decreased by 0.42%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a historical high, reflecting varied performances across global markets[38].

Geopolitical Conflicts - Ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine show a tug-of-war, with Ukraine proposing a revised peace plan and emphasizing the need for security guarantees from the U.S. amid internal political pressures[9] - The U.S. continues to exert pressure on Venezuela, with potential military actions being considered to undermine Maduro's government, reflecting domestic political motivations[13] - The U.S. and India are enhancing bilateral trade and energy cooperation, indicating a shift towards a more stable U.S.-India relationship following recent leadership communications[4] Economic Policies and Trade - The U.S. has approved exports of H200 chips to China, signaling a potential easing in tech-related tensions[4] - Ongoing U.S. tariff discussions focus on strategic security industries, with particular attention on semiconductor and critical mineral sectors[19] - The U.S. is engaged in legal proceedings regarding the legitimacy of tariffs, which could impact future trade negotiations with countries like India and Brazil[19] Market Trends - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.3% this week, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.8%, reflecting mixed market sentiments[5] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 4.1% this week, influenced by geopolitical tensions and ongoing negotiations in conflict regions[5] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a decline of 1.6% this week, contributing to a year-to-date increase of 20.1%[5] Risk Factors - Potential unexpected changes in U.S. policies and international relations could pose significant risks to market stability[6] - The geopolitical landscape remains volatile, with ongoing conflicts in various regions likely to impact global economic conditions[20]

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 14 日 中央经济工作会议与美联储货币政策变化对 A 股的影响 ——A 股投资策略周报（1214） 近期宏观层面迎来关键定调，国内中央经济工作会议直面"国内供强需弱"矛盾， 明确把"促进物价合理回升"作为货币政策重要考量；海外美联储如期降息 25bp 并启用 RMP 工具，旨在维持银行体系充裕准备金水平。往后看，随着下周非农及 通胀数据落地，建议重点关注"制定实施城乡居民增收计划"带来的消费潜力释放， 以及"推动投资止跌回稳"背景下的重大项目相关预期。 定期报告 《市场调整结束了吗？后续如何 应 对 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1018）》 相关报告 《近期政策端变化如何影响 A 股 市场？——A 股投资策略周报 （1207）》 《A 股调整的原因和恢复上涨的 信 号 — — A 股 投 资 策 略 周 报 （1123）》 张夏 S1090513080006 zhangxia1@cmschina.com.cn 涂婧清 S1090520030001 tujingqing@cmschina.com.cn 陈星宇 S1090522070004 c ...

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on AI applications and commercial aerospace, indicating a positive outlook for these sectors [6][24]. Core Insights - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need for digital transformation in manufacturing and the acceleration of satellite internet development during the 14th Five-Year Plan [6][10]. - OpenAI has released GPT-5.2, which shows significant improvements in various capabilities, positioning it as a leading model in the competitive AI landscape [6][11]. - SpaceX is accelerating its IPO process, with a target valuation of approximately $1.5 trillion, driven by its core businesses in rocket launches and satellite internet services [20][21]. - Domestic and international tech giants are increasingly investing in space computing projects, highlighting the growing demand for data centers and AI infrastructure [20][22]. - The successful launch of the reusable Zhuque-3 rocket marks a significant milestone in China's commercial aerospace sector, with multiple reusable rocket plans set for launch in 2025-2026 [23][24]. Industry Overview - The industry comprises 286 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 4,161.9 billion [2]. - The absolute performance of the computer sector shows a decline of 2.7% over one month, but a growth of 13.5% over six months and 8.3% over twelve months [4]. - The report highlights the increasing competition in the AI sector, particularly in the race for AI infrastructure and applications [6][20]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends continued focus on AI applications, particularly companies like Alibaba, Kingsoft, and Hehe Information, as well as AI infrastructure firms such as Damo Data and Deepin Technology [6][24]. - In the commercial aerospace sector, it suggests monitoring companies like Jida Zhengyuan, Jiayuan Technology, and Aerospace Power [6][24].

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Short-term Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model integrates macroeconomic fundamentals, valuation, sentiment, and liquidity signals to generate short-term timing recommendations for the A-share market[16][18][19] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Manufacturing PMI: A PMI value above 50 indicates economic expansion, while below 50 indicates contraction. The latest PMI is 49.20, signaling caution[16][19] - Credit Impulse: The long-term loan pulse growth rate is at the 54.24% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating a neutral signal[16][19] - M1 Growth Rate: The filtered M1 growth rate is at the 86.44% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling optimism[16][19] - **Valuation**: - PE Median: The A-share PE median is at the 93.47% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling caution[17][19] - PB Median: The A-share PB median is at the 88.92% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling caution[17][19] - **Sentiment**: - Beta Dispersion: At the 44.07% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating a neutral signal[17][19] - Volume Sentiment Score: At the 39.12% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling caution[17][19] - Volatility: At the 56.00% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating a neutral signal[17][19] - **Liquidity**: - Money Market Rate: At the 30.51% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating optimism[18][19] - Exchange Rate Expectation: At the 30.51% percentile over the past 5 years, signaling optimism[18][19] - Average 5-day Financing Amount: At the 47.15% percentile over the past 5 years, indicating a neutral signal[18][19] - **Model Evaluation**: The model demonstrates strong performance with significant annualized returns and reduced drawdowns compared to the benchmark, showcasing its robustness in short-term market timing[18][23] 2. Model Name: Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model evaluates macroeconomic cycles, valuation spreads, and sentiment differences to determine the optimal allocation between growth and value styles[27][28] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Macroeconomic Fundamentals**: - Profit Cycle Slope: A steep slope favors growth[28][29] - Interest Rate Cycle: High levels favor value[28][29] - Credit Cycle: Strengthening credit cycles favor growth[28][29] - **Valuation**: - PE Spread: The growth-value PE spread is at the 34.76% percentile, favoring growth[29] - PB Spread: The growth-value PB spread is at the 41.12% percentile, favoring growth[29] - **Sentiment**: - Turnover Spread: At the 75.52% percentile, favoring growth[29] - Volatility Spread: At the 67.92% percentile, favoring a balanced allocation[29] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has delivered consistent annualized returns and reduced drawdowns compared to the benchmark, though recent performance has shown slight underperformance[28][30] 3. Model Name: Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model uses 11 effective rotation indicators, including liquidity, sentiment, and valuation metrics, to determine the optimal allocation between small-cap and large-cap stocks[31][33] - **Model Construction Process**: - **Key Indicators**: - Indicators such as R007, financing balance changes, and thematic trading sentiment currently favor large-cap stocks[31][33] - **Comprehensive Signal**: The model aggregates individual signals to generate a composite recommendation, which currently suggests overweighting large-cap stocks[31][33] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has consistently generated positive annualized excess returns since 2014, demonstrating its effectiveness in capturing style rotation opportunities[32][33] --- Model Backtesting Results 1. Short-term Timing Strategy - **Annualized Return**: 16.40% (benchmark: 4.77%)[18][23] - **Annualized Volatility**: 14.80% (benchmark: 11.59%)[23] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 14.07% (benchmark: 31.41%)[23] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.9651 (benchmark: 0.2876)[23] - **2025 YTD Return**: 23.60% (benchmark: 13.49%)[18][23] 2. Growth-Value Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 12.74% (benchmark: 7.97%)[28][30] - **Annualized Volatility**: 20.80% (benchmark: 20.66%)[30] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 43.07% (benchmark: 44.13%)[30] - **Sharpe Ratio**: 0.5853 (benchmark: 0.3785)[30] - **2025 YTD Return**: 25.13% (benchmark: 25.96%)[28][30] 3. Small-Cap vs. Large-Cap Style Rotation Model - **Annualized Return**: 19.73% (benchmark: 12.67%)[33] - **Maximum Drawdown**: 40.70% (benchmark: 44.32%)[33] - **2025 YTD Return**: 33.83% (benchmark: 22.54%)[32][33]

- The report constructs 10 style factors based on the BARRA model, including valuation factor, growth factor, profitability factor, size factor, Beta factor, momentum factor, liquidity factor, volatility factor, non-linear size factor, and leverage factor[16][17][19] - The construction process for style factors involves detailed formulas, such as the valuation factor (BP = Book to Price = Shareholder equity/Market capitalization), growth factor (SGRO = Sales growth rate derived from regression of past five fiscal years' revenue), profitability factor (ETOP = Earnings-to-price ratio = Net profit TTM/Market capitalization), and others[16][17] - The style factors are tested using weekly rebalancing on the CSI All Share Index (000985.SH) with no transaction fees considered[16][17] - Beta factor, momentum factor, and volatility factor showed strong performance recently, with weekly long-short returns of 4.54%, 4.34%, and 3.81%, respectively[19] - The report tracks 53 stock selection factors across valuation, growth, quality, size, reversal, momentum, liquidity, volatility, dividend, corporate governance, and technical categories[21][22] - Examples of stock selection factors include BP (Book to Price = Shareholder equity/Market capitalization), single-quarter EP (Net profit/Market capitalization), and 240-day momentum (cumulative return excluding the last 20 days)[22] - The construction of single-factor portfolios uses a neutral constraint method to maximize factor exposure while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures[62][64][65] - Single-quarter ROE, single-quarter ROA, and single-quarter net profit margin factors performed well across multiple stock pools, such as CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, and CSI 1000[24][28][33][38] - The report evaluates index-enhanced portfolios for CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 800, CSI 1000, and CSI 300 ESG stock pools using composite factors constructed via rolling 1-year Rank ICIR weighting[56][59][61] - CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved weekly excess returns of 0.33%, monthly excess returns of 1.05%, and annual excess returns of 13.02%[59][60] - CSI 1000 enhanced portfolio showed the highest annual excess returns of 15.68% among all portfolios[60] - The ESG-enhanced portfolio under CSI 300 stock pool achieved weekly excess returns of 0.59%, monthly excess returns of 1.09%, and annual excess returns of 7.35%[60] - The optimization model for portfolio construction maximizes exposure to target factors while maintaining neutrality in industry and style exposures, with constraints on stock weights, short selling, and full investment[62][64][65] - The model uses the following formula: $Max$$w^{\prime}$$X_{target}$ $s.t.$$(w-w_{b})^{\prime}X_{ind}=0$ $(w-w_{b})^{\prime}$$X_{Beta}=0$ $|w-w_{b}|\leq1\%$ $w\geq0$ $w^{\prime}B=1$ $w^{\prime}1=1$[62][63][64]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report focuses on the performance and capital flow of the ETF fund market in the past week (December 08 - December 12, 2025), providing investors with a reference [1]. - During this period, the Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined, and most stock ETFs fell. A - share growth ETFs had the largest increase, with an average increase of 3.81% for funds above a certain scale, while Hong Kong - stock theme ETFs and Hong Kong - stock dividend ETFs had significant declines [2][5]. - Capital flowed into A - share large - cap ETFs, with a net inflow of 9.08 billion yuan for the whole week. In contrast, A - share TMT ETFs and A - share financial and real - estate ETFs experienced capital outflows, with net outflows of 7.139 billion yuan and 5.824 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index slightly declined, and most stock ETFs fell. A - share growth ETFs had an average increase of 3.81% for funds above a certain scale, while Hong Kong - stock theme ETFs and Hong Kong - stock dividend ETFs had average declines of 3.03% and 2.82% respectively [2][5]. - **Capital Flow**: Capital flowed into A - share large - cap ETFs with a net inflow of 9.08 billion yuan, and A - share TMT ETFs and A - share financial and real - estate ETFs had net outflows of 7.139 billion yuan and 5.824 billion yuan respectively [3][5]. 3.2 Different Popular Sub - type ETF Fund Market Performance - **A - share ETFs**: Include various types such as broad - based index (full - market, large - cap/super - large - cap, mid - small - cap, science - innovation/growth enterprise board), industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, pharmaceutical and biological, cycle, financial and real - estate), SmartBeta (value, growth, dividend, free cash flow), and theme. Each type has different performance in terms of weekly capital flow, weekly return, recent 1 - month return, and year - to - date return [13][14][15]. - **Hong Kong - stock ETFs**: Include broad - based index, industry (TMT, mid - stream manufacturing, consumption, pharmaceutical and biological, financial and real - estate), SmartBeta (dividend), and theme. Each type shows different performance in capital flow and return [28][29][30]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen ETFs**: Include industry and theme types, with different performance in capital flow and return [34][35][36]. - **US - stock ETFs**: Include broad - based index and industry types, with different performance in capital flow and return [37][38]. - **Other QDII - ETFs (excluding Hong Kong - stock/US - stock)**: Have different performance in capital flow and return [39]. - **Bond ETFs**: Have different performance in capital flow and return [40]. - **Commodity ETFs**: Have different performance in capital flow and return [41]. 3.3 Innovation Theme and Sub - industry ETF Fund Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: Indexes such as animation and games, cloud computing and big data, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [43]. - **Consumption Sub - industry**: Indexes such as liquor, food and beverage, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [44]. - **Pharmaceutical Sub - industry**: Indexes such as vaccine and biotechnology, innovative drugs, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [45]. - **New Energy Theme**: Indexes such as power utilities, photovoltaic industry, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [46]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprise Theme**: Indexes such as mainland state - owned enterprises, Hong Kong - stock central enterprise dividends, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [47][48]. - **Steady - growth Theme**: Indexes such as coal, real estate, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [49]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong - Stock Connect Sub - industry**: Indexes such as Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen Internet, Hong Kong securities, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [50]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - volatility Index Family**: Indexes such as CSI 300 Dividend, CSI Dividend Low - volatility, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [51]. - **Growth Enterprise Board Index Family**: Indexes such as science - innovation chips, growth enterprise board growth, etc. have different weekly and year - to - date returns, and their representative funds also show corresponding performance [52].

Group 1 - The report analyzes the investment strategy for the liquor industry in 2026, indicating that the sector is currently in a clearing process, with leading liquor companies' real profits corresponding to a valuation of around 20 times, suggesting limited upward space but a stable dividend yield providing a safety margin [1][6] - The liquor industry has entered a mid-stage of corporate endurance, with stock prices at a bottom range, as evidenced by a significant decline in revenue, net profit, and cash returns in Q3 2025, marking the largest quarterly revenue drop since 2012 [5][11] - The industry is experiencing a shift from entropy increase to decrease, with rising concentration and reduced leverage, as the number of large liquor enterprises has decreased significantly, and the proportion of loss-making companies reached a record high of 36.1% in H1 2025 [16][19] Group 2 - The report predicts that the impact of demographic changes on liquor consumption will be minimal over the next 5-10 years, with the decline in the eligible drinking population being offset by the expansion of younger and female consumer groups [27][32] - Price support for the Flying Fairy liquor is expected in 2026 due to a projected supply growth rate of only 1% over the next five years, alongside a historical high purchasing power among consumers [27][28] - Current valuations are deemed reasonable, with the liquor index corresponding to a PE ratio of 18.85, close to historical lows, and institutional holdings at a record low, indicating strong earnings authenticity post-adjustment [5][7][19] Group 3 - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on leading companies in the sector, such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu, while also recommending companies like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao that are actively clearing historical burdens [6][7] - The investment strategy suggests that the market will experience a shift in style, with key buying points identified around the Spring Festival, price index recovery, and improvements in seasonal sales [6][19] - The report highlights the ongoing challenges faced by distributors, with a significant reduction in their numbers and profitability, necessitating a transformation in their business models to adapt to the current market conditions [19][23]