Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the lithium battery equipment sector driven by traditional lithium battery expansion and the surge in energy storage demand, with expectations for a new cycle of prosperity in 2026 as solid-state battery technology approaches commercialization [1][2]. Group 1: 2025 Review - The lithium battery equipment sector saw a significant stock price increase of 98.60% from January 1, 2025, to December 15, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 and ChiNext indices [11]. - The recovery in the lithium battery sector is attributed to a surge in energy storage demand, driven by supportive policies, overseas market growth, and new application scenarios [14][19]. - The sector's performance is expected to continue improving as downstream battery manufacturers resume operations and expand production [19][23]. Group 2: 2026 Outlook - The solid-state battery industry is nearing a critical commercialization point, with equipment and material breakthroughs anticipated to create new demand for production equipment [3][28]. - The solid-state battery equipment market is projected to reach 59.216 billion yuan by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 103% from 2024 to 2030 [46][49]. - Key players in the lithium battery equipment sector include leading companies such as XianDiao Intelligent, Winbond Technology, and others, focusing on various segments of the production process [3][48]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are well-positioned in the equipment supply chain, particularly those involved in solid-state battery production and related technologies [3][48]. - The investment strategy emphasizes the "shovel seller" logic, where companies providing essential equipment for the solid-state battery industry are expected to benefit significantly as the market expands [3][48].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from the recovery in the U.S. housing market and consumer spending, with a projected revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 19.38% from 2017 to 2024, significantly outperforming the industry [7]. - The company has a strong presence in the U.S. market, with over 90% of its revenue coming from overseas, primarily from the U.S. tools industry [7]. - The company is expanding its product categories and channels, including partnerships with major retailers and online platforms like Amazon, where it has seen over 50% annual growth in sales [7]. - The report forecasts a recovery in the company's performance, with expected revenue growth of 3% in 2025, 26% in 2026, and 19% in 2027, alongside net profit growth of 7%, 31%, and 26% respectively [7]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total revenue is projected to reach 10,930 million in 2023, increasing to 22,801 million by 2027, with a year-on-year growth of -13% in 2023, followed by 35% in 2024 [2][16]. - Operating profit is expected to grow from 1,997 million in 2023 to 5,006 million in 2027, with a growth rate of 18% in 2023 and 39% in 2024 [2][16]. - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to increase from 1.42 in 2023 to 3.42 in 2027, with a corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratio decreasing from 25.3 to 10.5 over the same period [2][16]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is expected to improve from 12.0% in 2023 to 18.2% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [16]. Market Performance - The company's stock price has shown strong performance, with absolute returns of 16% over one month, 47% over six months, and 34% over twelve months [5]. - The current stock price is 35.83 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 42.8 billion yuan [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][6]. Core Insights - The company plans to invest 4.3 billion yuan in its Thailand base in 2026 to expand production capacity for high-end HDI and HLC products, aiming to provide comprehensive PCB solutions for the rapidly growing AI application market [6]. - The investment project is expected to enhance the company's AI PCB production capacity significantly, potentially reaching over 6 billion yuan in output value by 2027 [6]. - Short-term revenue for the company has shown a decline due to earlier customer inventory adjustments, with Q4 performance expected to be under pressure from exchange rate challenges [6]. - The company is well-positioned for medium to long-term growth, driven by hardware innovations and AI applications across various sectors, including wearable technology and robotics [6]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are set at 38.3 billion, 47.9 billion, and 57.5 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 3.95 billion, 5.33 billion, and 7.01 billion yuan [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 32.066 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 11%, followed by a recovery with growth rates of 10% in 2024 and 9% in 2025 [12]. - The company's earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 1.42 yuan in 2023, increasing to 3.03 yuan by 2027 [13]. - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 33.8 in 2023 to 15.8 in 2027, indicating a potential undervaluation as earnings grow [13]. - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 11.4% in 2023 to 17.8% in 2027, reflecting enhanced profitability [13].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the stability of electricity prices in 2026, with a controlled decline expected due to the recovery of coal prices and the increase in capacity electricity prices [1] - The report highlights the need to focus on the growth of hydropower installations in the short term, given the regional water supply differentiation [1] - The report indicates that the gas sector is expected to see a loosening of global LNG supply, which will likely lower price levels and stimulate demand [1] Industry Overview - The public utility sector has seen an overall increase in 2025, with the public utility sector rising by 3.61% and the environmental sector by 16.05% as of December 13, 2025 [6][12] - The electricity sector has experienced a cumulative increase of 2.73%, while the gas sector has risen by 13.30%, indicating a mixed performance across sub-sectors [12] Electricity Sector Analysis - **Thermal Power**: The report notes that coal prices have stabilized and are expected to lead to a controllable decline in electricity prices in 2026. The average price of Qinhuangdao 5500 kcal thermal coal was 820 RMB/ton as of November 27, 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 7% [6][81] - **Hydropower**: The report identifies a regional differentiation in water supply, with significant growth potential in hydropower installations in areas like the Jinsha and Dadu rivers, which are expected to contribute positively to performance [6][31] - **Renewable Energy**: The report highlights that the short-term electricity prices and consumption capacity for renewable energy are under pressure, with 29 provinces having implemented the 136 document, leading to increased competition and pricing challenges [6][44] - **Nuclear Power**: The report indicates that the marketization of nuclear power is increasing, with a stable growth outlook due to the commissioning of new units, despite some pressure from market price fluctuations [6][66] Gas Sector Analysis - The report discusses the global LNG supply, which is projected to increase significantly, with 239 million tons/year of LNG capacity under construction as of October 2025. This is expected to exert downward pressure on gas prices, thereby stimulating demand recovery [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of diversifying gas sources to ensure stable profitability for gas companies amid geopolitical risks and price fluctuations [6][7] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in companies with strong growth potential in hydropower and stable profitability in thermal power, such as Guodian Power and Huaneng International, which offers a dividend yield exceeding 7% [7] - In the gas sector, it suggests focusing on companies that are actively developing coal-to-gas projects and those with significant commercial user bases, such as Jiufeng Energy and Kunlun Energy, which are expected to benefit from demand growth as gas prices decline [7]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][3]. Core Insights - The company is a leading domestic player in the special seamless steel pipe industry, with a solid operational foundation. Its boiler pipe business is expected to grow rapidly, contributing significantly to revenue, particularly from HRSG boiler pipes used in gas turbine power generation [1][7]. - The company has a healthy financial position, with a low debt ratio and substantial cash reserves, which supports its operational stability and growth potential [23][32]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 6,661 million RMB, with a year-on-year growth of 7%. However, a decline of 14% is expected in 2024, followed by modest growth in subsequent years [2]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 783 million RMB in 2023, with a significant drop of 19% anticipated in 2024 [2]. - The company maintains a low debt ratio of 34% and has cash reserves exceeding 30 billion RMB, indicating strong liquidity [32][33]. Business Overview - The company has transitioned from a traditional steel pipe manufacturer to a provider of specialized pipe solutions for high-end manufacturing and emerging industries [12][15]. - The boiler pipe segment has become a core growth driver, with its revenue share increasing from 23% in 2022 to over 40% currently [1][7]. - The company has established itself in the international supply chain for electrical equipment, supplying HRSG boiler pipes to major global players like GEV and Mitsubishi [1][7]. Market Dynamics - The demand for gas turbines is expected to surge due to the development of overseas power systems and AI data centers, which will benefit the company's HRSG boiler pipe business [1][7]. - The North American gas turbine market is experiencing a supply-demand mismatch, presenting an opportunity for the company to expand its customer base [31]. Management and Ownership - The company's ownership structure is stable, with the chairman and his family holding a significant portion of shares, ensuring continuity in management [17][20]. - The management team consists of experienced individuals who have been with the company for a long time, contributing to its strategic direction and operational efficiency [21][22].

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the coal mining industry, highlighting a tightening supply and expected demand release during winter, which is anticipated to stabilize coal prices within a reasonable range [1][2]. Policy Impact - The 2025 coal industry policies focus on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" and "controlling production and improving quality," with measures to enhance supply resilience and promote industry transformation towards carbon neutrality [6][11]. - The implementation of the overproduction inspection policy in July 2025 aims to curb excessive competition and stabilize coal prices, which had been under pressure earlier in the year [12][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For thermal coal, supply is expected to contract while demand is projected to grow, with coal production growth slowing down and imports anticipated to decline by about 10% in 2025 [6][35]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable, supported by a potential cold winter and increased electricity consumption during peak seasons [38][39]. Price Dynamics - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is likely to recover due to a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with the price expected to rise from approximately 620 CNY/ton in July 2025 to around 820 CNY/ton by November 2025 [18][6]. Coking Coal Outlook - Coking coal, being a scarce resource, is expected to see limited supply growth, but demand may rebound due to recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which could stimulate steel production and, consequently, coking coal consumption [6][42]. - The report emphasizes that coking coal prices are more elastic and could see significant growth potential in response to demand recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The coal sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, driven by both dividend and cyclical factors, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and potential for growth [7][6]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for stable dividends, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining for their market-driven growth potential [7][6].

- The report does not contain any quantitative models or factors related to quantitative finance or ESG analysis[1][2][3][4]

证券研究报告 | 宏观专题报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 如何提高居民消费率？ 根据消费经济的一般演进路径，随着居民收入不断提高，消费重心会逐渐从日 常消耗品转向耐用商品，并进一步向服务领域扩展。当前，我国人均 GDP 已 跃升至 1.3 万美元以上，居民消费格局呈现出从商品主导向服务主导转变的趋 势。与一般发达国家相比，我国服务消费占比明显偏低，"十五五"时期提升 居民消费率的战略选择就是大力发展服务消费。 ❑ 消费的宏观特征：消费率低，但消费量并不低；政府消费占比较高，居民 消费率偏低；实物消费占比高，而服务型消费占比低。 1）中国整体消费率（最终消费支出/GDP）明显低于一般发达国家，但最 终消费量并不低，剔除价格、汇率等因素，按照购买力平价后的绝对消费 量接近美国，且大于整个欧盟总和；由于中国属于制造业大国，国内商 品、服务价格普遍低于国际平均水平。 2）最终消费结构中，中国居民消费率（居民消费支出/GDP）不仅低于全 球平均水平，而且低于同为发展中国家的印度、巴西等国；中国政府消费 额以及占 GDP 的比重均高于全球水平，亦高于一般发达国家，形成了 "官方消费比民间旺盛"的独特现象。 3）与 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 12 月 15 日 服务消费是提高居民消费率的主要抓手之一 显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 47 期） 频率：每周 当前，释放服务消费潜力对提高居民消费的边际空间更大，地方政府的手段更 多。因此，我们预计未来五年服务消费是提高居民消费率的关键因素。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 53 ——央国企整合呈现多元模 式，契合"十五五"盘活主 线》2025-12-15 2、《大国协调下的地缘冲突— ——国际时政周评》2025-12-14 3、《还需一点催化剂——宏观 与大类资产周报》2025-12-14 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 数据显示，2024 年我国居民消费率仅为 39.9%，同年美国居民消费率为 67.9%，韩国居民消费率也比我国高接近 10 个百分点左右，数据为 48.5%。"十五五"规划明确指出要提高居民消费率，这对于构建强大的国 内市场具有决定性的意 ...

Group 1: Central State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) Restructuring - China Metallurgical Group is divesting non-core assets worth approximately RMB 606.76 billion to refocus on its core engineering business[8] - The merger between Haiguang Information and Zhongke Shuguang was terminated due to market volatility, maintaining independent operations[14] - Hubei's state-owned assets have acquired around 15 listed companies, with over 50% of these being newly added through mergers in the past five years[16] Group 2: Asset Activation Strategies - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes asset activation as part of industrial upgrading strategies across various provinces[22] - Sichuan has introduced a three-year action plan to support enterprises in listing and mergers, focusing on a full lifecycle service[26] - Hubei's mergers are strategically aligned with the "51020" modern industrial cluster, targeting sectors like new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing[18] Group 3: Market Performance of Central SOEs - As of December 12, 2025, the total market capitalization of A-share listed central SOEs is RMB 35.1 trillion, accounting for 30.3% of the A-share market[32] - The National New SOE small-cap index has risen by 2.5% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.3 percentage points[32] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for central SOEs is 45.1 times, which is relatively high compared to the overall A-share market[32]