——中央经济工作会议点评 周期/房地产 本次中央经济工作会议对房地产市场的定调从过去的"更大力度推动房地产市 场止跌回稳"变为"着力稳定房地产市场"。"高质量推进城市更新"、"深化 住房公积金制度改革"、"有序推动'好房子'建设"等表述值得关注，后续或 可关注专项债和专项借款等金融工具进一步支持城市更新，以及住房公积金贷 款利率进一步调降、额度进一步提高和住房公积金用途拓宽等可能性。 住房公积金贷款利率方面，今年 5 月 7 日，《中国人民银行关于下调个人 住房公积金贷款利率的通知》发布。根据《通知》，自 2025 年 5 月 8 日 起，下调个人住房公积金贷款利率 0.25 个百分点，5 年以下（含 5 年）和 证券研究报告 | 行业点评报告 2025 年 12 月 12 日 li 推荐（维持） 关注城市更新和住房公积金制度改革等的进一步变化 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 257 | 5.0 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 2943.0 | 2.8 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 2800.2 | 2.9 | 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m ...

证券研究报告 | 策略专题报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 2025 年中央经济工作会议如何指引 A 股？ ——中央经济工作会议点评 中央经济工作会议 12 月 10 日至 11 日在北京举行。会议整体延续政治局会议 相对积极的表态。短期来看，过去 10 年间，会后 7 天大盘风格往往相对占优。 行业表现上，从平均超额收益水平来看，近 5 年，社会服务、公用事业、煤炭、 传媒这五个行业会后 7 天平均超额水平相对更高。中长期来看，建议重点关注 会议"推动投资止跌回稳"下，明年重大项目的安排。 专题报告 相关报告 1、《如何理解 12 月政治局会 议？对资本市场意味着什么？ ———政策专题》2025-12-08 2、《今年以来服务消费政策部 署梳理，美政府结束停摆——国 内外产业政策周报（1116）》 2、《黄金税收政策调整，美国 与亚洲多国达成合作——国内 外产业政策周报（1103）》 3、《发布会召开介绍和解读四 中全会精神，有哪些增量信息？ — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 （1025）》 4、《整治内卷聚焦价格治理， 特朗普威胁对华大幅加征关税 — — 国 内 外 产 业 政 策 周 报 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for leading companies in the media and internet sectors, including Shenzhou Taiyue, Southern Media, and Tencent Holdings [1][2]. Core Insights - The media industry experienced a decline of 3.59% last week, ranking 30th among all sectors, but has risen 26.95% year-to-date, placing it 7th overall [1][10]. - The box office performance of "Zootopia 2" exceeded expectations, grossing over 2 billion CNY within 10 days, with projections reaching around 4 billion CNY, highlighting the potential for blockbuster films to drive industry growth [1]. - The enthusiasm of young audiences for IP-based entertainment consumption is significantly higher than anticipated, with "Zootopia 2" achieving a global box office of 981 million USD, including 448 million USD from the Chinese mainland [1]. - The report emphasizes the strong growth potential for companies embracing youth-oriented gaming and film IPs, particularly Century Huatong, Giant Network, and others [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The media sector's index fell by 3.59% from December 1 to December 7, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.37% [10]. - Individual stock performances varied, with Lianjian Optoelectronics leading with a 28.62% increase, while Shengyibao saw a decline of 10.91% [13][14]. Film and Game Industry Key Data Film - The top films for the week included "Zootopia 2" with a weekly box office of 112,496.2 thousand CNY, contributing to a cumulative box office of 305,267.3 thousand CNY [17][18]. - Upcoming films are expected to attract significant audience interest, with "Mountain River's Past" leading in pre-release interest [19][20]. Game - Giant Network's game "Supernatural Action Group" has shown strong performance, with contract liabilities reaching 1.333 billion CNY, a 50.7% increase from the previous quarter [2]. - The game has successfully launched in Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan, with plans for expansion into Southeast Asia and Japan [2]. Television and Variety Shows - The top-rated TV dramas included "Dance City" and "Four Happiness," with ratings of 1.963% and 1.587%, respectively [22][23]. - In variety shows, "Running Man: Sky Road" topped the viewership rankings [28]. Book Sector - The best-selling fiction titles included "Red Rock" and "The Right Bank of the Erguna River," while non-fiction bestsellers featured "The Lazy Economy" [34][35].

证券研究报告 | 公司点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 道恩股份（002838.SZ） 拟收购韩国 SK 集团旗下公司股权，产业链布局完善的 同时有望增厚业绩 公司发布公告，以自有资金 5.2 亿元收购爱思开致新投资香港有限公司（以下 简称"SK 香港"）持有的宁波爱思开合成橡胶有限公司（以下简称"宁波爱思 开"、"标的公司"）80%股权。本次收购完成后，宁波爱思开将成为公司控 股子公司，纳入公司合并报表范围内。此外，交易对手方 SK 香港的关联方 SK Geo Centric Co., Ltd.和/或 SK Innovation Co., Ltd.拟转让给上市公司其持 有的标的公司产品相关的专利、专有技术及商标，前述知识产权转让价格不超 过人民币 0.65 亿元。 ❑ 不超过 5.8 亿元收购 EPDM 厂商 80%股权及知识产权，完善产业链布局的同 时增厚业绩。宁波爱思开是一家三元乙丙橡胶生产工厂，由韩国第二大企业 集团——SK 集团旗下爱思开致新投资香港有限公司（香港 SK）投资设立。 三元乙丙橡胶为乙烯、丙烯和少量的非共轭二烯烃第三单体的共聚物，以 EPDM 表示。本次交易完成后宁波爱思开将 ...

证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 11 日 未来两月货币预期稳定性下降 ❑ 美联储降息 25BP，重启技术性扩表。美联储如期降息 25BP 至联邦基金目 标利率区间 3.50%-3.75%，将于 2025 年 12 月 12 日起购买 400 亿美元短期 国债。相比 10 月，本次 FOMC 声明指出"失业率在 9 月有所上升"（10 月表述为"失业率在 8 月有所上升但仍然很低"），这也是本次降息的主 要原因，委员会判断准备金余额已降至充裕水平，并将按需启动短期国债 的购买，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。官员分歧加大，米兰再次投反对 票，支持降息 50BP 而非 25BP，施密德和古尔斯比支持维持利率不变。 点评报告 —12 月美联储议息会议点评 频率：每月 事件：当地时间 2025 年 12 月 10 日，美联储召开议息会议，降息 25BP 至联邦 基金目标利率区间 3.50%-3.75%，12 月 1 日起结束缩表，未来 30 天购买 400 亿美元短债。 尽管 FOMC 决议中有 2 名官员对降息投反对票，但点阵图显示事实上有 6 名 官员预期本次会议不降息，即所谓的"软反对"。S ...

证券研究报告 | 策略定期报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，各类挖机、装载机销量同比改善 ——行业景气观察（1210） 本周景气度改善的方向主要在部分资源品、消费服务和信息技术领域。上游资源 品中，金属价格多数上涨，水泥价格改善；中游制造领域，11 月各类挖掘机、装 载机销量三个月滚动同比增幅扩大。信息技术中，11 月集成电路进口、出口同比 增幅扩大，10 月全球半导体销售额同比增幅扩大。消费服务领域，11 月服装、 鞋类 CPI 同比增幅扩大，中药材价格上涨。11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅 略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续推动供给出清。推荐景气较高或有改善的有色、 建材、工程机械、中药、纺织服饰、造纸、存储器、集成电路等。 ❑【本周关注】11 月 CPI 同比增幅扩大，PPI 降幅略有扩大，"反内卷"政策持续 推动供给出清，PPI 回暖趋势不变。细分项目中：1）受极端天气与季节性供应收 缩驱动，鲜菜鲜果价格同比转正，为 CPI 回暖贡献主要增量，粮食、奶类、酒类、 畜肉类降幅均有不同程度收窄；2）受换季需求提振，服装鞋帽价格改善，旅游、 教育、交通工具等出行消 ...

—2025 年 11 月通胀数据点评 频率：每月 ❑ 风险提示：国内政策效果不及预期。 点评报告 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评报告 2025 年 12 月 10 日 通胀回升趋势不改 相关报告 1、《新质生产力相关产品出口 增速表现强劲—2025 年 11 月进 出口数据点评》2025-12-09 2、《明年政策积极程度将有所 变化—中央政治局会议解读》 2025-12-08 3、《固定资产投资增速或仍偏 弱 — — 宏 观 经 济 预 测 报 告 （2025 年 11 月）》2025-12-06 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 赵兴举 研究助理 zhaoxingju@cmschina.com.cn 敬请阅读末页的重要说明 ❑ CPI：11 月 CPI 环比-0.1%，同比+0.7%，CPI 同比大幅上涨主要由食品项贡 献，对 CPI 同比的影响由上月-0.54%转为+0.04%。结构上来看，1）寒潮、 降雨等天气因素导致蔬菜、鲜果市场供应偏紧，叠加运输及保鲜费用等系列成 本增加，共同推动 11 月鲜菜、鲜果价格上涨，叠加去年低基数因素，价格同 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Accumulate" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1][7]. Core Insights - The acquisition of 100% equity in Jinli Co., a leading player in the wet diaphragm sector, has been approved by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, which is expected to significantly enhance the company's performance in the lithium battery diaphragm market [1][7]. - The company has been focusing on high-end materials and traditional films since its entry into the lithium battery diaphragm sector in 2011, and the acquisition is seen as a strategic move to strengthen its position in the wet diaphragm market [1][11]. - The demand for lithium batteries has been growing, leading to a recovery in the supply-demand dynamics of diaphragms, which is expected to result in industry-wide profitability improvements [1][7]. Financial Data and Valuation - Total revenue is projected to be 2,215 million yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year decline of 16%, followed by a slight increase of 1% in 2024 [2]. - Operating profit is expected to be 224 million yuan in 2023, with a significant year-on-year growth of 23%, but a decline of 26% is anticipated in 2024 [2]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted at 214 million yuan in 2023, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 57%, but a decrease of 44% is expected in 2024 [2]. - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to be 55.2 in 2023, increasing to 98.6 in 2024 [2]. Acquisition Details - The acquisition of Jinli Co. is valued at 5.08 billion yuan, with 4.0 billion yuan paid in cash and 4.68 billion yuan in shares at an issue price of 3.81 yuan per share [11][12]. - The acquisition is expected to create synergies in technology, business, finance, and procurement, enhancing the company's competitive edge in the diaphragm market [31][7]. Market Position and Product Development - Jinli Co. is positioned as a major player in the wet diaphragm market, with a market share of 18% in China and 15.6% globally, ranking second in both markets [17]. - The company has successfully introduced a 5μm ultra-thin high-strength diaphragm into the product systems of major clients like CATL, achieving a domestic market share of 63% in this segment [28][17]. - The demand for 5μm ultra-thin high-strength diaphragms is expected to grow significantly, with projections indicating a market penetration of over 20% by 2025 [47][28]. Industry Outlook - The wet diaphragm industry is anticipated to experience a recovery in profitability, driven by increasing demand for lithium batteries and limited capacity expansion among major players [32][33]. - The industry is witnessing a trend towards thinner and stronger diaphragms, with the 5μm product expected to replace the 7μm and 9μm products in the market [47][28].

Economic Outlook - The GDP growth rate for 2026 is projected to be around 5%, with a recovery pattern characterized by "front low, back high" dynamics[12] - The first quarter is expected to show a growth of 4.7%, influenced by the ongoing decline in real estate investment and seasonal factors[28] - The second quarter is anticipated to stabilize at 4.9%, driven by new policy implementations and increased manufacturing investment[28] - The third quarter is forecasted to accelerate to 5.2%, with PPI expected to turn positive, enhancing industrial production[28] - The fourth quarter is projected to maintain a growth rate of 5.0%, supported by improved corporate profits and consumer spending[29] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment is expected to grow by 5%, driven by long-term policies and profit improvements in high-tech industries[37] - Real estate investment is projected to decline by 8%, indicating a continued natural clearing process in the market[13] - Infrastructure investment is forecasted to grow by 3%, reflecting a balance between debt management and development needs[13] Price Dynamics - CPI is predicted to rise to a central level of 0.5% in 2026, marking a reversal from near-zero growth in 2024-2025[8] - PPI is expected to turn positive in Q3 2026, with an end-of-year forecast of a 0.5% increase, signaling a significant improvement in upstream profitability[8] Consumer Behavior - Retail sales are projected to grow by approximately 4.2%, with a shift towards income distribution optimization and targeted subsidies[8] - Service consumption is anticipated to outpace goods consumption, driven by policy support and changing consumer preferences[8] Export and Import Outlook - Exports are expected to grow by 5%, supported by the U.S. inventory replenishment cycle and market diversification strategies[8] - Imports are projected to increase by 2.5%, driven by improved industrial profits and a stable RMB exchange rate[8]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Name**: Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to allocate carbon quotas based on the deviation of a company's carbon emission intensity from the industry average, incentivizing companies to reduce emissions. - **Model Construction Process**: - The carbon emission intensity deviation (X) is calculated as the difference between a company's unit product carbon emission and the industry average, divided by the industry average: $$ X = \frac{I - BP}{BP} $$ where \( I \) is the company's unit product carbon emission, and \( BP \) is the industry average. - The carbon emission intensity coefficient (α) is determined based on the deviation (X): $$ \alpha = \begin{cases} -3\% & \text{if } X \leq -20\% \\ 15\% \times X & \text{if } -20\% < X \leq 20\% \\ +3\% & \text{if } X > 20\% \end{cases} $$ - The quota amount (A) is calculated as: $$ A = E \times (1 + \alpha) $$ where \( E \) is the company's verified emissions for the year. - **Model Evaluation**: This model ensures that differences in emission control levels among companies are reflected in their quota allocations, providing positive incentives for emission reduction while maintaining overall quota stability.[8][9][11] Model Backtesting Results - **Carbon Emission Intensity Deviation and Carbon Emission Intensity Coefficient**: - The model's implementation is expected to significantly expand the coverage of the national carbon market, enhancing the price discovery function of carbon prices and reflecting marginal abatement costs more clearly.[12][13] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor 1: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Name**: National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to provide a quantifiable method for voluntary emission reduction projects, converting emission reductions into tradable environmental credits. - **Factor Construction Process**: - The methodology includes three key scenarios: offshore oilfield associated gas recovery, onshore gas field test gas recovery, and onshore oilfield low-gas-volume associated gas recovery. - Each scenario has specific mechanisms for emission reduction, monitoring, and accounting requirements. - For example, the offshore oilfield associated gas recovery scenario involves recovering gas that would otherwise be flared, converting it into usable products, and reducing methane emissions. - **Factor Evaluation**: This methodology provides clear technical specifications and market incentives for methane emission reduction projects in the oil and gas industry, supporting the achievement of methane control targets.[14][15] Factor Backtesting Results - **National Certified Voluntary Emission Reduction (CCER) Methodology**: - The implementation of this methodology is expected to lead to the initiation of more associated gas recovery projects, contributing to the achievement of China's dual carbon goals and supporting the green and low-carbon transition of the oil and gas industry.[14][15]