Production Sector - In April, the daily coal consumption of 460 power plants decreased month-on-month, reflecting seasonal demand characteristics, while inventory days increased compared to 2024[4] - The operating rate of blast furnaces in 247 steel mills increased significantly month-on-month, with daily pig iron output also rising, indicating robust industrial activity[4] - Despite high production levels, prices for rebar and coking coal remain under pressure, suggesting continued profit squeeze on upstream production due to weak downstream demand[4] Consumption Sector - April retail sales of passenger cars increased significantly year-on-year but saw a substantial month-on-month decline due to external tariff impacts[7] - The box office for April was 1.192 billion yuan, with "Nezha 2" contributing 53% of the total, indicating weak performance from other films and a decline in non-essential consumption willingness[7] - The average daily transaction area for second-hand homes in 30 cities fell by 25.4% month-on-month, with second-tier cities experiencing the largest declines[7] Economic Indicators - Industrial value-added in April is projected to grow by approximately 5.1% year-on-year, while retail sales growth is expected to be around 4%[8] - Fixed asset investment growth is forecasted at about 4%, with export and import growth rates estimated at 2.5% and -6%, respectively[8] - CPI and PPI are expected to be -0.1% and -2.8% year-on-year, respectively, indicating deflationary pressures in the economy[8] Fiscal Policy - General public budget revenue is expected to decline by 1.3% year-on-year, reflecting the impact of external tariffs and reduced domestic demand[21] - General public budget expenditure is projected to grow by 3.8% year-on-year, supported by high spending in social security and employment sectors[21]

证券研究报告 | 行业简评报告 2025 年 05 月 05 日 Q1 优于预期，Q2 预计收入同增个位数、关税导致成本增 9 亿 苹果季报及产业链跟踪 TMT 及中小盘/电子 事件： 苹果（AAPL.O）于北京时间 5 月 2 日发布 25FQ2（25CQ1，3 月季）财报。 综合财报及电话会议信息，我们评论如下： 评论： 1、3 月季营收 954 亿美元，EPS 1.65 美元，整体高于市场预期。 行业指数 % 1m 6m 12m 绝对表现 -4.7 4.2 31.4 相对表现 -1.7 7.2 26.8 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 -20 0 20 40 60 May/24 Aug/24 Dec/24 Apr/25 (%) 电子 沪深300 相关报告 苹果 3 月季营收 953.6 亿美元，高于市场预期（945.9 亿美元），同比+5.1%环 比-23.3%，同比增长受益于 iPhone、Mac 和 iPad 以及软件业务增长推动；净 利润 247.8 亿美元，同比+4.8%环比-31.8%；摊销 EPS 1.65 美元，创下 3 月季 度新高，高于市场预期（1.62 美元）。此外，董事会已批准额外 ...

Group 1: Investment Outlook - The market is expected to show a pattern of "stable weighted index and active technology growth" in May, with economic data indicating that fiscal funds are sufficient to counteract potential export declines due to tariff impacts [2][3] - The end of annual and quarterly report disclosures has led to a long-awaited upward inflection point in listed companies' profit growth, supported by significant improvements in operating cash flow and a confirmed turning point in free cash flow [2][3] - After the earnings disclosure period, the market is likely to actively invest in industries with improving performance, while new industrial trends and thematic investments are expected to gain traction in the current environment [2][3] Group 2: Recommended Stocks - Longsheng Technology (隆盛科技) is recommended for its strong fundamentals and high growth potential in robotics and related sectors [4][8] - Hewei Electric (禾望电气) has shown significant growth in Q1, with revenue and profit increasing by 41% and 90% year-on-year, respectively, indicating a new development phase [4][8] - Jinwo Co., Ltd. (金沃股份) is positioned to benefit from its role as a core secondary supplier for Tesla's robotics, with significant growth expected in insulated bearings [4][8] - Ninebot (九号公司) is projected to achieve over 50% revenue growth in Q1, driven by strong sales in electric two-wheelers and new product launches [4][8] - Zhongchong Co., Ltd. (中宠股份) is benefiting from accelerated brand concentration in the pet food market, with strong growth in its proprietary brands [4][9] - Luxshare Precision (立讯精密) is expected to see rapid compound growth in the coming years, with a strong ability to realize its earnings potential [4][10] - Weiguang Co., Ltd. (微光股份) is well-positioned in the robotics sector, with a stable growth outlook and low valuation [4][14] - Kuaishou (快手) is anticipated to outperform the market in advertising and e-commerce growth, supported by its unique position in the short video sector [4][20] - Alibaba (阿里巴巴) is expected to benefit from stable e-commerce operations and potential growth in cloud services, with a low valuation [4][20] - Chow Tai Fook (周大福) is showing signs of improvement in its fundamentals, with a focus on product-driven strategies in the jewelry sector [4][21] Group 3: Financial Projections - Longsheng Technology, Hewei Electric, Jinwo Co., Ninebot, Luxshare Precision, Weiguang, and Alibaba are all expected to achieve stable growth of over 20% this year [5][6]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company reported stable sales growth in Q1 2025, with revenue of RMB 1068.54 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.14%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 365.63 billion, down 7.95% year-on-year [1][6]. - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company managed to increase its oil and gas net production by 4.8% year-on-year, reaching 188.8 million barrels of oil equivalent [6]. - The average oil price realized by the company in Q1 2025 was USD 72.65 per barrel, a decrease of 7.7% year-on-year, while the average gas price increased by 1.2% to USD 7.78 per thousand cubic feet [6]. Financial Data and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve total revenue of RMB 4541.46 billion, RMB 4854.01 billion, and RMB 5096.71 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with net profits of RMB 1456.23 billion, RMB 1540.6 billion, and RMB 1592.97 billion for the same years [2][6]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 3.06, RMB 3.24, and RMB 3.35 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 8.2, 7.7, and 7.5 [2][6]. - The company’s total assets are projected to grow from RMB 1,144.186 billion in 2025 to RMB 1,379.171 billion by 2027 [12]. Production and Cost Management - The company has successfully maintained a competitive cost advantage, with the average cost per barrel of oil at USD 27.03, a decrease of 2.0% year-on-year [6]. - The company’s capital expenditure in Q1 2025 was approximately RMB 277.1 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced exploration and adjustment well activities [6]. Shareholder Information - The company has a total share capital of 47,530 million shares, with a current market capitalization of RMB 1189.2 billion [3]. - The major shareholder is Guoxin Investment Co., Ltd., holding a 0.44% stake in the company [3]. Market Performance - The company’s stock has shown a relative performance decline of 11% over the past 12 months compared to the CSI 300 index [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" investment rating for the company [2][7]. Core Insights - The company's revenue for 2024 reached 33.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.2% year-on-year [1]. - The company has seen significant growth in its key products, with a notable increase in the sales volume of nickel resources and precursor materials [7]. - The report highlights a strong performance in Q1 2025, with revenue of 9.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, and a net profit of 510 million yuan, up 12.1% year-on-year [1][7]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 15.3%, with a net profit margin of 3.1% [16]. - The projected revenue growth for 2025 is estimated at 31%, reaching 43.5 billion yuan, with net profit expected to increase by 70% to 1.74 billion yuan [9][15]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is projected to improve from 5.3% in 2024 to 8.6% in 2025 [16]. Production and Capacity - The company plans to increase its production capacity significantly, targeting 200,000 tons of ternary precursors and 40,000 tons of cobalt products by 2025 [1][7]. - The nickel resource project in Indonesia is expected to produce 52,000 tons of nickel metal in 2024, a 91% increase year-on-year [7]. Market Position - The company holds a market capitalization of 31.4 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 30.7 for 2024, expected to drop to 18.0 by 2025 [2][9]. - The report indicates that the company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for new energy battery materials, with a focus on maintaining profitability through controlled capacity growth [1][7].

Overall Inventory Cycle - In February, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 2.45% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 2.25%[1] - Total sales in February rose by 3.45% year-on-year, down from 3.69% previously[1] - The inventory cycle is transitioning from passive replenishment to active destocking, driven by "import grabbing"[1] - In Q1, U.S. net imports increased by $359.26 billion year-on-year, with over one-third ($129.71 billion) converted into inventory[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in February, 8 are in passive replenishment, including chemicals, building materials, electrical equipment, and consumer goods[15] - The historical percentile for total inventory year-on-year is 30.5%, with building materials at 71.5%, automotive parts at 67.8%, and paper products at 53.8%[15] - The upstream sector shows a split: half in passive replenishment and half in active destocking[16] - The downstream sector indicates prolonged passive replenishment, suggesting ongoing "import grabbing" demand[18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the bond market situation last week from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation [1]. Summary by Directory 1. Bond Market Sentiment - The bond market sentiment index was 113.7 last week, up 0.2 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 52.3%, up 6.8 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 2. Institutional Duration Tracking - The fund duration was 2.30 years last Friday, up 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 2.45 years, down 0.25 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 6.78 years, down 0.03 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3. Leverage Ratio Tracking - The balance of pledged repurchase last week was 10.8 trillion yuan, up 0.3 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 3.0 trillion yuan, up 0.1 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.4%, unchanged from the previous value [1]. 4. Secondary Trading Tracking - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.8%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y China Development Bank bonds was 18.2%, down 5.0 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.64%, up 0.29 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 5. Institutional Allocation Power Tracking - The newly issued share of bond funds last week was 9.3 billion yuan, down 1.6 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 1.60%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 99.6, up 0.4 from the previous value [2]. - The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 7.4bp to - 59.1bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. The rural commercial bank bond allocation index was - 96.0%, down 114.0 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance bond allocation index was 50.3%, down 16.9 percentage points from the previous value; the money market fund bond allocation index was 76.0%, up 7.0 percentage points from the previous value; the insurance second - tier perpetual bond allocation index was 0.2%, up 12.5 percentage points from the previous value [3]. 6. Primary Subscription Tracking - The overall multiple of local bonds last week rose 2.9 times to 22.0 times, and the overall multiple of China Development Bank bonds was 2.8 times, unchanged from the previous value [3]. 7. Relative Valuation Tracking - Last week, the spread between 10 - year China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds widened 0.2bp to 3.5bp, the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 3.4bp to 22.9bp, the spread between old and new 10 - year China Development Bank bonds widened 1.2bp to 3.0bp, and the spread between 10 - year local bonds and treasury bonds narrowed 0.2bp to 23.6bp [3].

Quantitative Models and Factor Construction Style Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: Beta Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures the sensitivity of a stock's return to the market return **Construction Process**: The Beta factor is calculated by performing a half-life weighted regression of the past 252 trading days' daily returns of individual stocks against the CSI All Share Index. The half-life is set to 63 trading days. The regression coefficient is used as the Beta value [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Volatility Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the risk or variability in stock returns **Construction Process**: The Volatility factor is a composite of three sub-factors: 1. **DASTD (Daily Standard Deviation)**: Standard deviation of excess returns over the past 250 trading days, calculated using a half-life weighted method with a half-life of 40 trading days 2. **CMRA (Cumulative Range)**: Difference between the maximum and minimum cumulative log returns over the past 12 months 3. **HSIGMA (Historical Sigma)**: Standard deviation of residuals from the Beta regression The final Volatility factor is the average of these three sub-factors [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Profitability Factor **Construction Idea**: Measures a company's ability to generate profits relative to its market value **Construction Process**: The Profitability factor is a composite of two sub-factors: 1. **ETOP (Earnings-to-Price Ratio)**: Calculated as trailing twelve months (TTM) net profit attributable to shareholders divided by total market capitalization 2. **CETOP (Cash Earnings-to-Price Ratio)**: Calculated as TTM net cash flow from operating activities divided by total market capitalization The final Profitability factor is the average of ETOP and CETOP [16][17] - **Factor Name**: Momentum Factor **Construction Idea**: Captures the continuation of stock price trends **Construction Process**: The Momentum factor is calculated as the cumulative return over the past 504 trading days, excluding the most recent 21 trading days. The return series is weighted using a half-life exponential decay with a half-life of 126 trading days [16][17] Stock Selection Factors and Construction - **Factor Name**: 20-Day Reversal **Construction Idea**: Measures short-term mean reversion in stock prices **Construction Process**: Calculated as the return over the past 20 trading days [20][21] - **Factor Name**: 60-Day Momentum **Construction Idea**: Captures medium-term price trends **Construction Process**: Calculated as the return over the past 60 trading days, excluding the most recent 20 trading days [20][21] - **Factor Name**: Single-Quarter Gross Margin **Construction Idea**: Measures operational efficiency **Construction Process**: Calculated as (Single-quarter revenue - Single-quarter cost of goods sold) / Single-quarter revenue [20][21] - **Factor Name**: 240-Day Skewness **Construction Idea**: Captures the asymmetry in return distributions **Construction Process**: Calculated as the skewness of daily returns over the past 240 trading days [20][21] Factor Backtesting Results Style Factor Performance - **Beta Factor**: Weekly long-short return of 3.76% [16][18] - **Volatility Factor**: Weekly long-short return of 2.88% [16][18] - **Profitability Factor**: Weekly long-short return of -2.83% [16][18] Stock Selection Factor Performance - **20-Day Reversal**: Weekly return of 0.46%, monthly return of 0.84%, annual return of 8.15% [24][25] - **60-Day Momentum**: Weekly return of 0.40%, monthly return of -0.01%, annual return of -1.44% [24][25] - **Single-Quarter Gross Margin**: Weekly return of 0.31%, monthly return of 1.19%, annual return of 4.85% [24][25] - **240-Day Skewness**: Weekly return of 0.25%, monthly return of 0.62%, annual return of -4.02% [24][25] Index-Specific Factor Performance - **CSI 500**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.93%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.63% [28][29] - **CSI 800**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.59%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.37% [31][32] - **CSI 1000**: 60-Day Momentum weekly return of 1.91%, 20-Day Reversal weekly return of 0.75% [35][36] - **CSI 300 ESG**: 240-Day Momentum weekly return of 0.45%, Single-Quarter Net Profit Margin weekly return of 0.40% [39][41] Evaluation of Models and Factors - **Style Factors**: Beta and Volatility factors performed well in the short term, indicating market preference for high-risk, high-beta stocks. However, the Profitability factor underperformed, suggesting a temporary market preference for lower-profitability stocks [16][18] - **Stock Selection Factors**: Short-term reversal and medium-term momentum factors showed consistent performance across different indices, while fundamental factors like gross margin demonstrated stable returns [24][25][28] - **Index-Specific Factors**: Factor performance varied across indices, with smaller-cap indices like CSI 1000 showing stronger momentum effects compared to larger-cap indices [35][36][39]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the ETF fund market, summarizing the past week's performance and capital flows of the overall ETF fund market, different popular segmented ETF funds, and innovative theme and segmented industry ETF funds for investors' reference [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 ETF Market Overall Performance - Market performance: From April 28th to April 30th, A-share-focused ETFs showed mixed performance. TMT ETFs had the largest increase, with an average rise of 2.20% among funds above a certain scale, while financial and real estate ETFs had the deepest decline, with an average drop of 1.27% among funds above a certain scale [2][5]. - Capital flow: There was a significant inflow of funds into bond ETFs, with a net inflow of 6.192 billion yuan for the whole week. Conversely, large-cap index ETFs experienced a significant outflow of funds, with a net outflow of 6.898 billion yuan for the whole week [3][6]. 3.2 Different Popular Segmented Type ETF Funds Market Performance - **Stock ETF - Broad-based Index**: Different broad-based index ETFs had varying performance in terms of weekly capital flow, weekly return, recent 1-month return, and year-to-date return, including super large-cap, large-cap, mid - small-cap, science and technology/growth enterprise board-related, all - market, and index enhancement [14][15][16]. - **Stock ETF - Industry Theme**: Different industry theme ETFs also showed different performance. For example, TMT sector ETFs generally had positive weekly returns, while financial and real estate sector ETFs had negative weekly returns [20][22]. - **Stock ETF - SmartBeta**: These ETFs also had different performance in terms of capital flow and return [27]. - **Bond ETF**: Some bond ETFs had capital inflows, such as the Haifutong CSI Short - Term Financing ETF with a net inflow of 4.516 billion yuan, while others had outflows [28]. - **QDII ETF**: Their performance also varied, with some having positive weekly returns and others negative [29]. - **Commodity ETF**: Gold ETFs generally had negative weekly returns and some had significant capital outflows [30]. 3.3 Innovative Theme and Segmented Industry ETF Funds Market Performance - **TMT Innovation Theme**: Indexes such as animation and gaming, cloud computing and big data, and artificial intelligence had positive weekly returns, with corresponding representative funds also showing certain increases [32]. - **Consumption Segmented Industry**: Indexes like household appliances had a positive weekly return, while food and beverage had a negative return [33]. - **Pharmaceutical Segmented Industry**: Indexes such as innovative drugs had positive weekly returns, while traditional Chinese medicine had a negative return [34]. - **New Energy Theme**: Indexes like new energy vehicles had a small positive weekly return, while photovoltaic industry had a negative return [35]. - **Central and State - owned Enterprises Theme**: Most indexes in this theme had negative weekly returns [36]. - **Stable Growth Theme**: Indexes such as rare earth industry had a positive weekly return, while real estate had a significant negative return [37]. - **Shanghai - Hong Kong - Shenzhen/Hong Kong Stock Connect Segmented Industry**: Indexes like Hong Kong Stock Connect Internet had a positive weekly return, while Hong Kong securities had a negative return [38]. - **Dividend/Dividend Low - Volatility Index Family**: Most indexes in this family had negative weekly returns [39]. - **Growth Enterprise Board Index Family**: Indexes such as Science and Technology Innovation 100 had a positive weekly return, while Growth Enterprise Board 50 had a negative return [40][41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report focuses on the performance of the quantitative fund market, summarizing the performance of major indices and quantitative funds in the past week, the overall performance and distribution of different types of public - offering quantitative funds, and the top - performing quantitative funds this week. During April 28 - April 30, 2025, A - shares showed mixed trends, and quantitative funds performed weakly [1][2][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Near - Week Performance of Major Indices and Quantitative Funds - A - shares showed mixed trends, and quantitative funds performed weakly. Among the major indices, the one - week yields of CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 500 were 0.18%, 0.08%, and - 0.43% respectively [8]. - Quantitative funds had average returns. Active quantitative funds fell 0.07%, and market - neutral funds fell 0.09%. Index - enhanced funds had weak excess returns, and none of the SSE 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index - enhanced funds outperformed their benchmarks. The average excess return of CSI 500 index - enhanced funds was - 0.41% [4][11]. 3.2 Performance of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **SSE 300 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.51%, the excess return was - 0.08%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.37%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.19% [16]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.33%, the excess return was - 0.41%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.04%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.46% [17]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was 0.14%, the excess return was - 0.04%, the maximum drawdown was 0.00%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.25% [18]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Funds**: The one - week return was 0.33%, the excess return was 0.03%, the maximum drawdown was - 0.15%, and the excess maximum drawdown was - 0.18% [19]. - **Active Quantitative Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.08%, and the maximum drawdown was - 0.27% [20]. - **Market - Neutral Funds**: The one - week return was - 0.09%, and the maximum drawdown was - 0.11% [20]. 3.3 Performance Distribution of Different Types of Public - Offering Quantitative Funds The report presents the semi - annual performance trends of various types of public - offering quantitative funds, as well as the performance distributions in the past week and the past year. Index - enhanced funds show excess return performance [21]. 3.4 Top - Performing Public - Offering Quantitative Funds - **SSE 300 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Anxin Quantitative Selection SSE 300 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 0.46% [32]. - **CSI 500 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: For example, Huaan CSI 500 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 0.48% [33]. - **CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Like Huaan CSI 1000 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 1.08% [34]. - **Other Index - Enhanced Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Huatai - Peregrine CSI 2000 Index - Enhanced, with a one - week excess return of 1.09% [35]. - **Active Quantitative Top - Performing Funds**: For instance, Jinxin Quantitative Selection, with a one - week return of 5.02% [36]. - **Market - Neutral Top - Performing Funds**: Such as Southern Absolute Return Strategy, with a one - week return of 0.43% [37].