Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the reports [1][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The crude oil 2602 contract is expected to be volatile in the short - and medium - term, and weak in the intraday. Overall, it is likely to run weakly, with oversupply in the supply - demand situation being the dominant factor [1] - Although geopolitical risks have increased during the New Year's holiday, the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market is the long - term logic for the decline in oil prices. It is expected that domestic crude oil futures prices on Thursday may maintain a volatile and weak trend [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Time - period and Viewpoint Summary - **Short - term**: The short - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Medium - term**: The medium - term view of crude oil 2602 is "volatility" [1] - **Intraday**: The intraday view of crude oil 2602 is "weak", and the reference view is "weakly running" [1][5] 3.2 Price Movement and Driving Logic - The core logic for the weak trend of crude oil is the oversupply in the supply - demand situation [1] - During the New Year's holiday, geopolitical risks increased due to the US military operation in Venezuela and threats to other South American countries, which may be a factor for the post - holiday oil price increase. However, the long - term pressure on oil prices comes from the weak supply - demand situation in the crude oil market. The domestic crude oil futures maintained a volatile and weak trend on Wednesday night and are expected to continue this way on Thursday [5]

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the rubber, methanol, and crude oil futures markets, including core views, industry dynamics, spot prices, and related charts [6]. Core Views - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the domestic Shanghai rubber futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price center shifted slightly up to 16,200 yuan/ton, closing at 16,180 yuan/ton, up 1.44%. The 5 - 9 month spread discount narrowed to 10 yuan/ton. The domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and the rubber price has broken out of the triangular range and maintained a slightly strong pattern [6]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, the domestic methanol futures contract 2605 showed a trend of increasing volume and reducing positions, fluctuating strongly, and closing slightly higher. The price reached a high of 2,323 yuan/ton and a low of 2,241 yuan/ton, closing at 2,267 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The 5 - 9 month spread premium narrowed to 20 yuan/ton. With the sharp rise in domestic coal futures prices, methanol futures maintained a strong pattern [6]. - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the domestic crude oil futures contract 2602 showed a trend of increasing volume and positions, fluctuating downward, and closing significantly lower. The price reached a high of 437.3 yuan/barrel and a low of 411.0 yuan/barrel, closing at 416.3 yuan/barrel, down 2.57%. Although the geopolitical conflict between the US and Venezuela escalated, the event was quickly digested by the market. Currently, the oil market is still dominated by the expectation of supply - demand surplus, and both domestic and international oil prices remained weak [6]. Industry Dynamics Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons or 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, a 3.80% increase, and the bonded area inventory increased by 8.16% [8]. - In the week of December 26, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a week - on - week increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises may continue to decline next week [8]. - In November 2025, the inventory warning index of Chinese automobile dealers was 55.6%, up 3.8 percentage points year - on - year and 3.0 percentage points month - on - month. The logistics industry prosperity index was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month. The heavy - truck market sold about 100,000 vehicles in November, a 6% month - on - month decrease but a 46% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the cumulative sales exceeded 1 million vehicles, a 26% year - on - year increase [9]. Methanol - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the average domestic methanol operating rate was 86.58%, a week - on - week increase of 0.21%, a month - on - month increase of 2.57%, and a significant increase of 7.83% compared with the same period last year. The weekly methanol production reached 2.0722 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,200 tons [10]. - The operating rates of formaldehyde, acetic acid, and MTBE showed different trends. The domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plant average operating load was 81.32%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.83 percentage points. As of December 31, 2025, the methanol to olefin futures盘面 profit was - 300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10 yuan/ton [10]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was 1.1316 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 113,200 tons. The inland methanol inventory was 422,700 tons, a week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons [11]. Crude Oil - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the number of active oil drilling platforms in the US was 409, a week - on - week increase of 3. The US daily crude oil production was 13.827 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 million barrels per day [11]. - As of the week of December 26, 2025, the US commercial crude oil inventory was 422.9 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 1.934 million barrels. The Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 549,000 barrels, and the strategic petroleum reserve increased by 248,000 barrels. The US refinery operating rate was 94.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points [12]. - As of December 23, 2025, the average non - commercial net long positions of WTI crude oil were 64,898 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 10,002 contracts. The average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were 99,095 contracts, a week - on - week increase of 58,107 contracts [12]. Spot Price Table | 品种 | 现货价格 | 较前一日涨跌 | 期货主力合约 | 较前一日涨跌 | 基差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪胶 | 15,750 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 16,180 yuan/ton | +130 yuan/ton | - 430 yuan/ton | - 30 yuan/ton | | 甲醇 | 2,305 yuan/ton | - 2 yuan/ton | 2,267 yuan/ton | - 26 yuan/ton | +38 yuan/ton | +24 yuan/ton | | 原油 | 402.2 yuan/barrel | +0.0 yuan/barrel | 416.3 yuan/barrel | - 11.9 yuan/barrel | - 14.1 yuan/barrel | +11.9 yuan/barrel | [13] Related Charts - The report includes charts of rubber (such as rubber basis, 5 - 9 month spread, futures inventory, and tire开工率), methanol (such as methanol basis, 5 - 9 month spread, port and inland inventory, and production cost), and crude oil (such as crude oil basis, commercial inventory, refinery operating rate, and net position changes) [14][27][40].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 黑色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 煤焦日报 专业研究·创造价值 供应扰动再现，煤焦低位反弹 核心观点 焦炭：1 月 07 日，焦炭主力合约报收于 1773 元/吨，日内录得 7.98%的涨 幅。截至收盘，主力合约持仓量为 3.84 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+1678 手。现货市场方面，日照港准一级湿熄焦平仓价格指数最新报价为 1470 元/吨，周环比下跌 3.29%；青岛港准一级湿熄焦出库价为 1420 元/吨， 周环比下跌 2.07%。期货市场方面，本周焦炭期货向上反弹，主要是受焦 煤供应端扰动支撑。此外，进入新一年度后，经济政策预期、"反内卷" 政策预期，以及下游冬储补库预期的向上驱动渐显，带动焦炭期货走强。 焦煤：1 月 07 日，焦煤主力合约报收 1164 点，日内上涨 7.98%。截至收 盘，主力合约持仓量为 51.06 万手，较前一交易日仓差为+11257 手。现 货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难 言明显改善 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 热轧卷板：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.52%日涨幅，量仓扩大。目前来 看，热卷需求韧性表现尚可，叠加市场情绪偏暖，价格震荡走高，但产 量大幅回升，且需求存有隐忧，谨防需求走弱引发矛盾再度累积，届时 价格将承压走弱，关注需求表现情况。 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 乐观情绪发酵，钢矿偏强运行 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价强势上涨，录得 2.87%日涨幅，量仓扩大。现阶段， 商品情绪偏暖，螺纹期价低位回升，但供增需弱局面下螺纹基本面弱稳 运行，淡季钢价上行有待跟踪 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 国债期货 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 国债期货 专业研究·创造价值 国债期货震荡小幅调整 核心观点 今日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。央行表示 2026 年要继续实施好适度宽 松的货币政策，具体方面的表述是"灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策 工具"，这说明降息的条件会根据外部货币环境以及国内经济基本面综合考 虑。考虑到短期内宏观数据表现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠 加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价格承压。当然中长期 来看内需有效需求不足的问题仍需偏宽松的货币信用环境，未来仍存降息 可能性，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，预计短期内震荡整理为主。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明：本人具有中国期货 业协会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证书， 本人承诺以勤勉的职业态度， 独立、客观地出具本报告。本 报告清晰准确地反 ...

期货研究报告 有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 有色金属 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 7 日 有色日报 专业研究·创造价值 有色日内回落，镍维持强势 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 核心观点 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 6 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 沪铜 昨夜沪铜在 10.5 万关口维持强势运行，今日沪铜增仓回落，午后 一度跳水至 10.3 万以下，随后企稳回升。元旦节后国内宏观氛围持 续回暖，资产普涨。而铜在产业供应收缩的背景下矿端扰动再起， 形成了宏观和产业利好共振。短期内外盘分歧加剧，日内宏观氛围 有所冷却，资金获 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Views of the Report - Today, all stock indices fluctuated and consolidated. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 28,815 billion yuan, an increase of 493 billion yuan from the previous day. Policy - positive expectations and the net inflow of funds are the main drivers for the upward movement of stock indices. The policies of the Central Economic Work Conference are gradually being implemented, and policy - positive expectations continue to ferment. The purchase amount of margin trading funds soared from about 220 billion yuan before the holiday to about 300 billion yuan, indicating high enthusiasm of leveraged funds to enter the market. The stock indices have broken through the upper limit of the previous oscillation range. Due to the unchanged main logics of policy - positive expectations and net fund inflow, the stock indices are likely to remain strong in the future. In general, it is expected that the stock indices will fluctuate strongly in the short term. For options, since the current position PCR and implied volatility have both rebounded, a bull - spread strategy can be considered [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Option Indicators - On January 7, 2026, the 50ETF fell 0.46% to 3.220; the 300ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) fell 0.37% to 4.901; the 300ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) fell 0.38% to 4.977; the CSI 300 Index fell 0.29% to 4776.67; the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.53% to 7906.42; the 500ETF (Shanghai Stock Exchange) rose 0.48% to 7.999; the 500ETF (Shenzhen Stock Exchange) rose 0.51% to 3.157; the GEM ETF rose 0.24% to 3.311; the Shenzhen 100ETF fell 0.31% to 3.542; the SSE 50 Index fell 0.43% to 3145.12; the STAR 50ETF rose 1.00% to 1.52; the E Fund STAR 50ETF rose 0.96% to 1.47 [5] - The trading volume PCR and position PCR of various options showed different changes compared with the previous trading day. For example, the trading volume PCR of SSE 50ETF options was 72.92 (previous trading day: 58.87), and the position PCR was 101.23 (previous trading day: 108.76) [6] - The implied volatility of at - the - money options in January 2026 and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying assets were also presented. For instance, the implied volatility of at - the - money SSE 50ETF options in January 2026 was 15.59%, and the 30 - trading - day historical volatility of the underlying asset was 11.38% [7] 3.2 Relevant Charts - The report includes various charts for different types of options, such as the SSE 50ETF option, SSE 300ETF option, etc. These charts show the trends of the underlying assets, option volatility, trading volume PCR, position PCR, implied volatility curves, and at - the - money implied volatility of different tenors [9][20][33]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Thanks to short - term favorable factors, iron ore prices are at a high level, but supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. The subsequent trend will maintain high - level fluctuations, and attention should be paid to the pre - holiday restocking situation of steel mills [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Short - term Favorable Factors Supporting Iron Ore Prices - The structural contradiction in the spot market remains unsolved. Although the inventory at 47 domestic ports has exceeded 167 million tons, the inventory of available varieties has dropped to a very low level, so the total inventory contradiction has not affected the market [3] - Recently, the prices of resource - related varieties have been strong, especially copper and silver. Iron ore, with the strongest financial attributes among ferrous metals, has been boosted by the rise in resource prices [3] - The variety arbitrage logic provides support. The current black - metal positions still favor iron ore long positions and short positions in other varieties, which is also beneficial to the iron ore price trend [3] - The restocking expectation of steel mills is being realized. The inventory in steel mills has increased for two consecutive weeks, and the spot trading volume at ports has also increased, leading to an improvement in iron ore demand [3] Limited Improvement Space in Demand - At the beginning of the new year, steel mills started to resume production, and iron ore demand improved. The latest daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills and the daily consumption of imported ore were 2.2743 million tons and 2.8067 million tons respectively, with a week - on - week increase of 0.0085 million tons and 0.0063 million tons [4] - However, the improvement space of iron ore demand is limited. On one hand, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and the loss - making proportion of long - process steel mills is still large. The profit - making ratio among 247 steel mills is 38.10%. On the other hand, the downstream steel market is in the traditional off - season, and industrial contradictions are accumulating, which restricts the production - increasing motivation of steel mills [4] - The relatively positive aspect is that as the Spring Festival approaches, steel mills have the motivation to restock. In the past five years, the average inventory in steel mills before the festival increased by about 16.3 million tons, and restocking was mostly concentrated in the four weeks before the festival, which will form short - term support for iron ore demand and prices [4] High Supply Pressure - The arrival volume at domestic ports has recovered as expected. The latest value at 47 domestic ports is 28.247 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.969 million tons, remaining at a high level this year [5] - After the year - end shipment rush, the overseas miners' shipments have declined from the high, but the global iron ore shipment volume is still higher than the same period last year. The cumulative global iron ore shipments in December increased by 13.74 million tons and 19.55 million tons respectively compared with the previous month and the same period last year, and the floating inventory is high, so the arrival volume at ports will remain relatively high [5] - The port iron ore inventory has continuously reached new highs. The latest inventory at 47 domestic ports and the number of ships at ports are 167.2179 million tons and 109 respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 11.1135 million tons and 14 respectively. The total inventory contradiction has not been alleviated, and the de - stocking pressure is still significant [5] - In the long term, more new production capacity will be put into use in 2026. Under a relatively neutral expectation, the supply increment may exceed 60 million tons, which will exacerbate the loose supply pattern and put pressure on iron ore prices [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货国债期货早报（2026 年 1 月 7 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏弱 | 震荡整理 | 短期降息概率较低，中长期宽松 预期仍存 | 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：TL、T、TF、TS 日内观点：偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡整理 核心逻辑：昨日国债期货均震荡小幅回调。最新公布的 12 月制造业 PMI 重回扩张区间，宏观数据表 现较强韧性，货币政策宽松的紧迫性下降，叠加一季度国债密集发行带来的供给端压力，国债期货价 格承压。不过内需有效需求不足的问题仍存，货币政策中长期仍偏向宽松，2026 年政策利率仍存下 调预期，目前国债价格隐含的降息预期较弱，国债期货支撑力量仍存。总的来说，国债期货上有压力 下有 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific ratings for gold and copper futures: - **Gold**: Short - term:震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏强 (slightly bullish in intraday trading) [1] - **Copper**: Short - term: 震荡 (fluctuating); Medium - term: 强势 (strong); Intraday: 震荡偏弱 (slightly bearish in intraday trading) [1] 2. Core Views - **Gold**: It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach. The recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price. Although the market panic did not spread, the high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price. Attention should be paid to the technical pressure at the high position in late December [1][3] - **Copper**: It is recommended to take a long - term bullish view. The recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations push up the copper price. The core drivers of the copper price increase since December are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative [1][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the gold price fluctuated upwards, and it maintained a strong operation at night. New York gold reached above the $4500 mark, and Shanghai gold was approaching the 1010 - yuan mark [3] - **Driving Factors**: On January 3, the US military carried out an air strike on Venezuela and captured the Venezuelan president, which increased the market's risk - aversion sentiment and led to a higher opening of the gold price. The high post - holiday risk appetite and liquidity in the market are the main reasons for pushing up the gold price [3] Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, Shanghai copper continued to increase positions and rise, standing above the 105,000 - yuan mark during the day, and LME copper stood above the $13,300 mark. After the Asian session, LME copper once erased the intraday gain of more than $200, while the copper price recovered again before the domestic night session. There was a large divergence in short - term internal and external funds [4] - **Driving Factors**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase are macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. The easing of US and Japanese central bank monetary policies has restored market liquidity, and the market expects the Fed to continue to cut interest rates in 2026. The delay in the commissioning of the second - phase project of Tongling Nonferrous' Mirador Copper Mine in Ecuador due to political instability and administrative issues has led to the expectation of lower - than - expected new global copper mine supply [4]