投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货股指期货早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2603 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 偏强 | 震荡偏强 | 政策利好预期与资金净流入趋势 不变 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：偏强 中期观点：震荡 专业研究·创造价值 1/2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 期货研究报告 获 取 每 日 期 货 观 点 推 送 服 务 国 家 走向世界 知行合一 专业敬业 诚 信 至 上 合 规 经 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the medium - term is expected to be oscillating. The short - and medium - term prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday performance is expected to be oscillating weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean futures prices, but the pressure of Brazil's high - yield still exists. The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report next Monday. The short - term rebound space of US soybean futures prices is limited. Domestic oil mills still have soybean meal inventory pressure. After New Year's Day, replenishment by traders and feed mills drives up trading volume. In the short term, soybean meal is boosted by both short - term supply shortage and long - term cost support, so the futures price is oscillating strongly [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Supported by the rebound of the entire oil and fat sector and the weakening of the ringgit, the decline in crude oil limits the increase; US soybean oil rises. On the one hand, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is less than expected. On the other hand, the market expects that next week's Malaysian palm report may further push up Malaysian palm inventory. Palm oil faces the greatest inventory pressure, and the domestic palm oil inventory continues to rise, highlighting the pressure on palm oil spot and futures prices. In the short term, the palm oil futures price is weaker than other oils and fats and should be treated as oscillating weakly [7] 3.3 Other Information - For soybean meal 2605, factors affecting the price include import soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure. For soybean oil 2605, factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2605, factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

Group 1 - Report industry investment rating: Not provided Group 2 - The core view of the report: The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, and there is still an expectation of long - term easing. Treasury bond futures are expected to mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [1][5] Group 3 1. Variety view reference - Financial futures index sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term view is "oscillating", the medium - term view is "oscillating", the intraday view is "weakening", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while the long - term easing expectation still exists [1] 2. Main variety price market driving logic - Financial futures index sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is "weakening", the medium - term view is "oscillating", and the reference view is "oscillating and consolidating". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures oscillated and slightly pulled back yesterday. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2026. Considering the strong resilience of short - term macro data and the supply - side pressure of intensive Treasury bond issuance in the first quarter, Treasury bond futures prices are under pressure. In the long run, there is still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and the support for Treasury bond futures still exists [5]

Report Overview - The report is the Baocheng Futures Iron Ore Morning Report on January 8, 2026, analyzing the short - term, medium - term, and intraday trends of iron ore 2605 [1][2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Report's Core View - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is weakly stable, and the outlook for ore prices is cautiously optimistic. Although the futures price of iron ore continues to run strongly at a high level due to warm market sentiment, the supply pressure remains and the demand improvement is limited, so the upward driving force needs to be tracked [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For iron ore 2605, the short - term trend is oscillating and slightly strong, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday is oscillating and slightly weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakly stable supply - demand pattern and cautious optimism about ore prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The commodity sentiment is warm and the positive factors remain, so the iron ore futures price continues to run strongly at a high level. However, the supply - demand pattern has not improved substantially. Steel mills have resumed production, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased, but the improvement in their profitability is limited, and the off - season steel market can't bear the increased production, so the demand increase space is limited. Meanwhile, the arrival at domestic ports has increased again and there is still room for growth in the future. Even if the shipments of miners and domestic ore production decline seasonally, the ore supply pressure remains. The subsequent changes should be monitored [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report suggests that methanol futures are expected to run strongly, with a short - term and medium - term outlook of oscillation and an intraday view of strength. The overall trend is expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Information 3.1 Time - cycle View - For methanol 2605, the short - term view (within one week) is oscillation, the medium - term view (two weeks to one month) is oscillation, and the intraday view is strength, with a reference view of running strongly [1]. 3.2 Core Logic - The strongest support for the upward movement of methanol prices before the festival comes from the "hard contraction" of overseas supply. Iran, a major import source, is facing serious supply disruptions [5]. - The depletion of domestic port methanol inventories has led to the repair of port spot prices and a stronger basis, which has boosted the confidence of long - position holders in the futures market [5]. - Although the methanol futures price had a slight correction on Wednesday night, the coal futures price rose significantly again. The expectation of a decline in external imports outweighs the weak real - world demand, so the domestic methanol futures are expected to maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend on Thursday [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Both Shanghai rubber and synthetic rubber are expected to run with a strong bias in the short - term and mid - term, with a strong bias on the day of trading [1][5][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Shanghai Rubber (RU) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][5] - **Core Logic**: With the end of the war between Thailand and Cambodia, the geopolitical risk weakens, and the expectation of reduced rubber supply in Southeast Asia dissipates. However, domestic natural rubber production areas in Yunnan and Hainan have entered the off - season, reducing the supply pressure of domestic full - latex. Southeast Asia is still in the peak tapping season. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Supported by a bullish atmosphere, Shanghai rubber futures oscillated at a high level on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [5] Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Price Trend**: Short - term: oscillating; Mid - term: oscillating; Intraday: strong bias; Overall reference view: run with a strong bias [1][7] - **Core Logic**: Affected by the tight circulation of northern supplies and downstream replenishment demand, the spot price of butadiene has risen sharply. The rapid increase in raw material costs has squeezed the profits of synthetic rubber manufacturers, leading to some plants reducing production or shutting down, and the supply is expected to decline. The domestic automobile production and sales data are optimistic, and the heavy - truck sales data in December are better than expected. Coupled with the oscillating and strong - biased pattern of Shanghai rubber futures, it indirectly supports synthetic rubber futures. The supply - demand expectation of synthetic rubber has improved, and the bullish atmosphere has gradually dominated. Synthetic rubber futures rose sharply on Wednesday night and are expected to maintain an oscillating and strong - biased trend on Thursday [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic thermal coal fundamentals may recover in January 2026, driving coal prices to stabilize and rebound. Attention should be paid to the subsequent coal consumption trend of power plants [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Main Varieties Price Quotation Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Black Sector - **Variety**: Thermal coal spot - **Intraday and Medium - term View**: Oscillation - **Core Logic**: Before the New Year's Day, thermal coal prices were still weakening. With the influence of cold air on the 24th and 25th, the decline rate slowed down. As of December 31, 2025, the FOB price of 5500K thermal coal at Qinhuangdao Port was 676 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12 yuan, continuing to weaken after breaking below 700 yuan/ton and stabilizing this week. The decline was due to high supply and unexpectedly weak demand. In January, some idle coal mines will resume production, but there will be a concentrated Spring Festival holiday for coal mines, and downstream replenishment demand will be realized. Also, the heating demand of southern coastal cities will increase, driving the coal consumption of power plants to reach a peak. [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided [1][2][3] 2. Core View of the Report - The raw material prices are rising strongly, driving up the steel prices. However, the supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. The production is increasing while the demand is weak, and the overall fundamentals are weakly stable. The rebar prices are expected to continue the oscillatory trend, and attention should be paid to the production and sales data released by Mysteel today [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety View Reference - For rebar 2605, the short - term and medium - term trends are oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that strong raw materials drive up the steel prices [2] 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Strong raw material price increases lead to higher steel prices. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has changed little. Construction steel mills are continuously resuming production, and rebar output is rising, weakening the positive effect of low supply. The rebar demand is weak, and high - frequency demand indicators remain at the low level of the same period in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and the demand will continue to decline seasonally, dragging down the steel price. Although the strong rise of raw materials boosts the sentiment in the black market and the rebar futures price oscillates upward, the steel price is still prone to pressure in the off - season [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View - Gold: In the short - term, it is expected to be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bullish. The recommended strategy is to wait and see. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and geopolitical conflicts are favorable for the gold price [1]. - Copper: In the short - term, it will be in a range - bound state; in the medium - term, it will be strong; and on an intraday basis, it is slightly bearish. The recommended strategy is to be bullish in the long run. The core logic is that the recovery of liquidity and strong industrial expectations will drive up the copper price [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - **Price Performance**: Yesterday, the Shanghai gold futures fluctuated downward, breaking through the 1000 - yuan mark during the day, and showed strong performance at night, returning to the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. - **Market Environment**: After the Venezuela incident, the panic in the market did not spread. The US stock Dow Jones index hit a new high. After the holiday, the market risk appetite and liquidity remained high. The short - term macro - environment cooled down, and the assets with good previous gains generally declined, increasing the safe - haven demand for gold and providing support for the gold price [3]. - **Technical Analysis**: Continuously monitor the long - short game at the 1000 - yuan mark [3]. Copper - **Price Performance**: Yesterday during the day, due to the cooling of the macro - environment, Shanghai copper futures fluctuated weakly, and this weakness continued at night. The trading volume of positions changed little. Last night, LME copper broke through the $13,000 mark, and the main contract price of Shanghai copper once broke through the 102,000 - yuan mark [4]. - **Price Drivers**: Since December, the core drivers of the copper price increase have been macro - liquidity easing, mine - end disturbances, and the long - term AI narrative. Recently, the short - term sharp increase in the copper price has led to an increase in the willingness of long - position holders to close their positions, causing the futures price to fall from its high [4].

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 8 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：上涨 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：强势 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 1110.0 元/吨，周环比下跌 0.9%。整 体来看，元旦过后，焦煤预计进入供需两增格局，短期基本面难言明显改善，但经济政策预 期、"反内卷"政策预期、下游冬储补库预期，以及春节煤矿减产预期等利好驱动渐显，带动 焦煤期货走强。 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 供应强预期再现，焦煤大幅反弹 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 上涨 | 强势 | 成本端支撑，焦炭低位反弹 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度 ...