宏观 证券研究报告 |点评报告 2025/3/31 3月PMI数据点评—— 经济回升势头进一步明确 徐超 S1190521050001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 万琦 S1190524070001 证券分析师： 分析师登记编号： 目录 1、经济进一步回归常态化运行，制造业PMI延续回升态势 2、服务及建筑业共同支撑，非制造业持续扩张 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 守正 出奇 宁静 致远 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 | ➢ | | | 中国3月非制造业PMI50.8，前值50.4。 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 图表1：PMI数据主要分项 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 项 目 | 较前值 | 2025/3 | 2025/2 | 2025/1 | 2024/12 | 2024/11 | 2024/10 | 2024/9 | 2024/8 | 2024/7 | 2024 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Midea Group (000333) with a target price based on the last closing price of 76.87 [1] Core Insights - Midea Group achieved a total revenue of 409.08 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 38.54 billion yuan, up 14.29% year-on-year [4][10] - The company reported a strong performance in Q4 2024, with total revenue of 88.73 billion yuan, a 9.10% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 6.84 billion yuan, reflecting a 13.92% year-on-year growth [4][10] - Midea Group's dividend distribution plan includes a total payout of 26.71 billion yuan, with a dividend ratio of 69.3% [7] Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, Midea Group's revenue from the ToB business exceeded 100 billion yuan, with the smart home segment generating 269.53 billion yuan, a 9.41% increase year-on-year [5] - The COLMO and Toshiba high-end brands saw retail sales growth of 45% year-on-year, with COLMO's market share in the high-end segment significantly increasing [5] - The company's online and offline revenue reached 85.62 billion yuan and 321.53 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth of 10.72% and 9.10% [6] Profitability Metrics - Midea Group's gross margin for Q4 2024 was 25.20%, a decrease of 3.62 percentage points year-on-year, while the annual gross margin for manufacturing was 28.24%, an increase of 0.75 percentage points [6] - The net profit margin for Q4 2024 improved to 7.49%, up 0.75 percentage points year-on-year, indicating overall cost optimization [6] Future Projections - The report forecasts Midea Group's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 42.90 billion yuan, 46.96 billion yuan, and 50.45 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 5.60 yuan, 6.13 yuan, and 6.59 yuan [10] - The expected PE ratios for the same years are projected to be 13.73, 12.54, and 11.67 [10] Strategic Initiatives - Midea Group is focusing on technological advancements, with over 11,000 new patents granted in 2024 and participation in the formulation of 230 technical standards [9] - The company is expanding its global presence through the successful listing of H shares and establishing a comprehensive sales network in multiple overseas markets [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Shoulv Hotel (600258) with a target price based on the last closing price of 13.59 [1][8] Core Views - The company's total revenue for 2024 reached 77.51 billion, a slight decrease of 0.54% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 8.06 billion, an increase of 1.41% year-on-year [4][8] - The hotel operation segment showed a revenue of 50.67 billion, down 5.01% year-on-year, while hotel management revenue increased by 11.6% to 21.68 billion [5][8] - The company opened 1,353 new hotels in 2024, bringing the total to 7,002 hotels by the end of the year, with a focus on expanding mid-to-high-end hotel offerings [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported revenue of 18.62 billion, down 1.05% year-on-year, and a net profit of 831 million, down 24.71% year-on-year [4][5] - The overall RevPAR for all hotels was 134 yuan, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, with an average room rate of 219 yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year [6][8] - The gross margin improved slightly to 38.36%, and the net margin increased to 10.58% [6][8] Growth and Expansion - The company plans to continue upgrading existing hotels and expanding its membership program, with a total membership of 197 million, a growth of 30.8% year-on-year [7][8] - The company aims to achieve net profits of 933 million, 1.088 billion, and 1.249 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 16X, 14X, and 12X [8][9] Market Outlook - The report is optimistic about the hotel industry's recovery driven by policy stimulus, projecting a relative increase in stock price compared to the CSI 300 index [8][12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company Jin Hong Gas (688106) [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under short-term pressure, but the on-site gas production business is experiencing rapid growth [1][9] - The company reported a revenue of 2.525 billion yuan for 2024, a year-on-year increase of 4.03%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 201 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 36.12% [4][5] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.00 yuan per 10 shares (before tax) [4] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The revenue breakdown for 2024 includes: - Bulk gases: 973 million yuan - Specialty gases: 963 million yuan - On-site gas production: 278 million yuan - Rental income: 213 million yuan - Clean coal gas: 0.39 million yuan [5] - The gross profit for these segments was: - Bulk gases: 304 million yuan - Specialty gases: 267 million yuan - On-site gas production: 173 million yuan - Rental income: 39 million yuan [5] - The average price of specialty gases dropped from 5.71 yuan/kg in 2023 to 3.68 yuan/kg in 2024, with the gross margin decreasing from 40.36% to 27.69% [5] Future Projections - The company has secured substantial orders in electronic bulk gas and on-site gas production, with total contract amounts reaching 8.8 billion yuan, of which 8.58 billion yuan is pending fulfillment [6] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 280 million yuan, 370 million yuan, and 419 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 32, 24, and 21 times [6][7] Financial Metrics - The company’s financial metrics for 2024 and projections for 2025-2027 include: - Revenue growth rates: 4.03% for 2024, 14.99% for 2025, 10.30% for 2026, and 7.78% for 2027 [7] - Net profit growth rates: -36.12% for 2024, 39.07% for 2025, 32.12% for 2026, and 13.25% for 2027 [7] - Diluted earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.42 yuan for 2024, increasing to 0.87 yuan by 2027 [7]

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the media and internet industry Core Insights - The recent release of OpenAI's GPT-4o image generation model and the significant update to the Agents SDK supporting the MCP protocol indicate that overseas companies are focusing not only on enhancing the performance of foundational models but also on integrating these models deeply with application scenarios. This is exemplified by GPT-4o's potential to assist in creative implementations in design and advertising, while the MCP protocol is expected to reduce the development difficulty and integration costs for agents. In contrast, domestic companies are primarily concentrating on leveraging the engineering optimization benefits of reinforcement learning to continue advancing the performance of large models [3] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Data - The domestic gaming market's actual sales revenue reached 27.935 billion yuan in February 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 12.30% [13] - The top three mobile games in the iOS sales ranking as of March 29, 2025, were "Love and Deep Space," "Honor of Kings," and "Dungeon and Fighter: Origin" [13] AI Sector - In February 2025, the global AI product web traffic rankings were led by ChatGPT with 4.04 billion visits, followed by New Bing with 1.41 billion visits, and DeepSeek with 571 million visits [22] - In the domestic market, DeepSeek led with 571.4 million visits, followed by Nano AI Search with 307.1 million visits, and Qwen with 58.8 million visits [24] Film Industry - As of March 29, 2025, the total box office for domestic films reached 24.257 billion yuan, with a single-day box office of 6.9 million yuan [25] - The top three films on March 29, 2025, were "Nezha: The Devil's Child," "Violence: Infinite Kill," and "Anger Water West Flow" [26] Television Ratings - On March 27, 2025, the top-rated dramas in the CSM 71 provincial satellite TV golden theater were "Heart Club," "Like Brocade," and "Northbound" [28] Variety Shows - As of March 28, 2025, the top three variety shows by broadcast index were "Ride the Wind 2025," "The Cat in the Box Season 2," and "Wife's Romantic Travel 2025" [32] Advertising Market - In the first seven months of 2023, advertising spending increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with July showing an 8.7% increase compared to the same month last year [38]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Nanhua Futures (603093) with a target price based on the last closing price of 12.88 [1] Core Views - Nanhua Futures demonstrated differentiated development capabilities, with a reported operating income of 1.324 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.60%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 458 million yuan, up 13.96% year-on-year [4][6] - The company is expected to benefit from a high interest rate environment abroad, with net interest income increasing by 25.01% to 682 million yuan, driven primarily by overseas operations [6][7] - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange to enhance its capital strength and expand its overseas business [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the reporting period, Nanhua Futures achieved an operating income of 1.324 billion yuan and a net profit of 458 million yuan, with a weighted average ROE of 11.71%, an increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year [4][5] - The company’s domestic futures brokerage business client equity reached 31.561 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48.54%, although net income from brokerage fees decreased by 11.33% to 446 million yuan due to increased competition [5] - The wealth management business saw a significant decline, with the management scale of Nanhua Fund down 29.87% to 14.805 billion yuan [5] Business Segments - The overseas business showed strong performance, with net income from overseas operations increasing by 15.32% to 654 million yuan, supported by a favorable high-interest environment [6] - The risk management business faced challenges, with basis trading revenue down 9.17% and off-exchange derivatives business nominal principal decreasing by 18.60% [5] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 5.960 billion yuan, 6.271 billion yuan, and 6.643 billion yuan respectively, with net profits expected to be 552 million yuan, 614 million yuan, and 666 million yuan [7][8] - The estimated EPS for the same period is projected to be 0.90 yuan, 1.01 yuan, and 1.09 yuan, with corresponding PE ratios of 14.24, 12.80, and 11.81 [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price based on the closing price of 43.26 on March 27, 2025 [1][9]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in operating revenue of 0.48% year-on-year, totaling 337.49 billion yuan, while net profit increased by 1.22% to 148.39 billion yuan. The return on equity (ROE) was 14.49%, down by 1.73 percentage points [4][9]. - The company is expected to benefit from economic recovery, with projected operating revenues for 2025-2027 of 342.30 billion, 356.58 billion, and 372.33 billion yuan, respectively [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the fourth quarter of 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 84.78 billion yuan and net profit of 35.21 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year increases of 7.53% and 7.63%, respectively [4]. - The total loan amount reached 6.89 trillion yuan, up 5.83% year-on-year, with a focus on optimizing the loan structure [5]. - Total deposits amounted to 9.10 trillion yuan, marking an increase of 11.54% year-on-year, with a notable shift towards fixed-term deposits [5]. Income and Profitability - Net interest income for the reporting period was 211.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.58% year-on-year, but the decline was narrowing [6]. - Non-interest income rose by 1.41% to 126.21 billion yuan, supported by investment income and fair value changes [6]. Asset Quality - The company's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio stood at 0.95%, with a provision coverage ratio of 411.98%, indicating stable asset quality [7]. - New NPL generation was 66.70 billion yuan, with a focus on monitoring retail loan quality [7]. Capital Adequacy - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio was 14.86%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.13 percentage points, indicating strong internal capital replenishment capabilities [8]. - The company proposed a cash dividend of 2 yuan per share, with a dividend payout ratio of 35.32% [8].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The low-altitude economy in China is transitioning from pilot projects to commercialization, which may increase the demand for related new energy materials and lightweight materials such as carbon fiber and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene (UHMWPE) [5][27] - The bromine price has surged by 20.83% this week, reaching 29,000 RMB/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 61.11% [4][11] - Refrigerant prices are maintaining a strong trend, with R134a averaging 46,500 RMB/ton and R32 at 47,000 RMB/ton, reflecting increases of 1.09% and 3.3% respectively [4][10] Summary by Sections 1. Key Industry and Product Tracking - The first operational certificate for civil unmanned aerial vehicles has been issued in China, marking a significant step for the low-altitude economy [3] - Bromine demand is increasing as the downstream market enters a peak season, leading to a tight supply situation and rising prices [4][10] 2. Core Views - The low-altitude economy's development is expected to boost demand for carbon fiber and UHMWPE, with companies like Zhongyi Zhongdeng being noteworthy [5][29] - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a demand peak for refrigerants, with price and profit margins rising for major products [5] 3. Detailed Sector Tracking - The refrigerant sector continues to show strength, with significant price increases noted for various refrigerants [10] - Carbon fiber prices have stabilized after a decline, with potential demand growth anticipated from new technologies [27][30] 4. Market Performance - The chemical industry index has shown a slight decline, with the basic chemical index down by 0.44% [63] - Specific sub-sectors such as polyester and other chemical raw materials have seen notable gains, while synthetic resins and carbon fiber have experienced declines [68]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Haier Smart Home is "Buy" with a target price based on the last closing price of 27.16 [1][7]. Core Views - The report highlights a steady performance in Q4 2024, with a focus on the potential of AI and emerging market opportunities [1][7]. - The company achieved total revenue of 285.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 4.29%, and a net profit of 18.74 billion yuan, up 12.92% [4][9]. - The report anticipates continued growth in revenue and net profit for the years 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 21.04 billion yuan, 23.50 billion yuan, and 26.02 billion yuan respectively [9][12]. Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company reported total revenue of 83.01 billion yuan, a 9.88% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of 3.59 billion yuan, up 3.96% [4][5]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 27.8%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, while the net margin for Q4 was 4.99%, down 0.53 percentage points [6][12]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 9.65 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 8.997 billion yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 48.01% [4][7]. Market and Product Insights - The report indicates that the domestic market is benefiting from a trade-in policy, which is expected to boost short-term demand, while emerging markets present structural opportunities [7][9]. - The revenue growth for major product categories in 2024 was as follows: refrigerators +1.96%, washing machines +2.87%, air conditioners +7.44%, kitchen appliances -1.15%, and water appliances +4.93% [5][6]. - The company’s domestic revenue reached 141.68 billion yuan, growing 3.12% year-on-year, while overseas revenue was 142.90 billion yuan, up 5.32% [5][6]. Future Projections - The report projects revenue growth rates of 7.20%, 5.60%, and 5.20% for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [9][12]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.24 yuan, 2.50 yuan, and 2.77 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12.11, 10.84, and 9.79 [9][12].

Group 1: Macro Asset Tracking - The bond market shows a decline in long-term rates and fluctuations in short-term rates, with a tightening liquidity environment leading to a correction of previously overestimated rate cut expectations, stabilizing around the six-month line, indicating potential for allocation [14][18] - The stock market is experiencing a necessary adjustment, particularly in small-cap technology stocks, while low-position dividend, consumer, and pharmaceutical sectors are expected to yield excess returns [2][18] - The foreign exchange market indicates a strong support level for the CNY/USD around 7.1, with expectations of continued depreciation pressure on the RMB due to trade war concerns, projecting a year-end offshore RMB rate of 7.5-7.6 [3][28] Group 2: Investment Strategy - In the bond market, it is recommended to manage duration while considering allocation [6] - For the A-share market, caution is advised regarding the feedback risk from small-cap technology stocks, with a focus on low-position dividend, consumer, and healthcare sectors [6][18] - In the U.S. stock market, a short-term rebound is anticipated, but mid-term adjustments are expected to continue, suggesting investors wait for long-term buying opportunities [7][26] Group 3: Sector Performance - The precious metals sector has outperformed, rising over 3%, while previously strong sectors like agricultural chemicals and rubber products have declined [20] - The market is witnessing a clear trend of profit-taking, with low-position dividend, healthcare, and consumer sectors showing favorable win rates and odds [20][21] - The commodity market indicates a slight decline in the Wenhua Commodity Index, with a recommendation for investors to buy on dips and set stop-losses at new lows [33]