证券研究报告 公用事业 | 电力 港股|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 04 月 20 日 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 联系人 市场表现： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 证券分析师 事件：1）公司公告 2024 年年度业绩，2024 年公司实现营业收入 19.51 亿美元，同比下滑 11%，实现归母净利润 2.48 亿美元，同比下滑 7.3%。2）派息公告：2024 年公司派发每股 股息 11.27 港仙/股，对应分红率 25%，与去年持平（派息金额/归母净利润），当前股息率 5%。 风电利润下滑为业绩下滑主要原因，光伏项目量增利降。2024 年国内煤电/国内风电/国内光 伏/韩国项目分别实现归母净利润 0.16、2.28、0.23、0.75 亿美元，同比分别变动 0.00、-0.32、 -0.05、0.03 亿美元，风 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][6][25] Core Views - The company's main brand shows steady growth, with a notable performance in professional sports, particularly in the children's segment, which is growing faster than the adult segment [6] - The company plans to optimize its multi-brand matrix by focusing on core running business and transitioning to a Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) model, which is expected to enhance its competitive position in the professional sports sector [6] - The company has healthy inventory levels and stable discount rates, maintaining its annual profit growth guidance of over 10% [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2023 to FY2027 are as follows: - FY2023: 143 billion RMB - FY2024: 136 billion RMB - FY2025E: 146 billion RMB - FY2026E: 158 billion RMB - FY2027E: 169 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts for the same period are: - FY2023: 10.3 billion RMB - FY2024: 12.4 billion RMB - FY2025E: 13.7 billion RMB - FY2026E: 15.0 billion RMB - FY2027E: 16.3 billion RMB - The company expects a gross margin improvement, with projections of 42% in FY2023, increasing to 45% by FY2027 [5][6][16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7% to 75% and channel inventory turnover of approximately four months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1]. - The company has been actively promoting public health and sports development since 2007, sponsoring 44 top marathon and road running events across China in 2024, including the prestigious Xiamen Marathon [2]. - The company aims to enhance its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model to foster deeper and more personalized interactions with customers, thereby increasing brand loyalty and retention rates [3]. - Saucony has quickly become a prominent player in the running market, ranking among the top three in terms of wearing rates in Chinese marathons. The DTC strategy has driven over 100% compound annual growth in the professional sports segment's revenue from 2020 to 2024 [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of RMB 14.7 billion, RMB 15.8 billion, and RMB 17 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of RMB 1.36 billion, RMB 1.52 billion, and RMB 1.69 billion respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be RMB 0.49, RMB 0.55, and RMB 0.61, with PE ratios of 9x, 8x, and 8x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.11 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price for the company's stock is set at 205.93 HKD, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][4][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 7.62 yuan in 2023, increasing to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.7% in 2023 to 16.0% in 2025 and remain stable thereafter [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% growth [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for XPeng Motors (9868.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's new car cycle and financial improvements [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The financial performance of XPeng Motors is showing continuous improvement, with a revenue of 40.87 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, and a net loss of 5.79 billion yuan, which is an improvement of 44.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has expanded its sales network to 690 stores across 226 cities, achieving a vehicle delivery volume of 190,000 units in 2024, a growth of 34.2% year-on-year [3]. - The launch of popular models is expected to drive rapid sales growth, with a significant increase in deliveries in Q1 2025, totaling 94,000 vehicles, a staggering 331% year-on-year increase [3]. - XPeng Motors is exploring long-term growth opportunities through advancements in smart driving technology, international expansion, flying cars, and robotics, indicating a broad potential for future development [3]. - Profit forecasts suggest that the company will achieve a net profit of -0.94 billion yuan in 2025, followed by positive profits of 2.51 billion yuan in 2026 and 6.91 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding EPS of -0.49, 1.32, and 3.63 yuan [3][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, XPeng Motors reported total revenue of 40.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 was 14.3%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin improved to -14.2%, narrowing by 19.7 percentage points [3][4]. - The company expects significant revenue growth in the coming years, with projected revenues of 92.49 billion yuan in 2025 and 143.48 billion yuan in 2026 [4]. Sales and Market Expansion - The company has successfully expanded its sales network and is set to increase its international presence, aiming to enter 60 countries by 2025 [3]. - The introduction of new models, such as the MONA M03 and P7+, is anticipated to enhance sales performance significantly [3]. Long-term Growth Potential - XPeng Motors is investing in smart driving technology and has plans for flying cars and robotics, indicating a commitment to innovation and diversification [3]. - The company is also building a production facility for flying vehicles, with an expected annual capacity of 10,000 units [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, expecting a relative return of over 20% within the next six months [6]. Core Insights - The company reported a mid-single-digit year-on-year growth in retail sales for its main brand in Q1 2025, with retail discounts ranging from 7% to 75% and channel inventory turnover of approximately four months. The subsidiary brand, Saucony, achieved over 40% year-on-year growth in retail sales [1]. - The company has been actively promoting public health and sports development since 2007, sponsoring 44 top marathon and road running events across China in 2024, including the prestigious Xiamen Marathon [2]. - The company aims to enhance its direct-to-consumer (DTC) business model to foster deeper and more personalized interactions with customers, thereby increasing brand loyalty and retention rates [3]. - Saucony has quickly become a prominent player in the running market, ranking among the top three in terms of wear rate in Chinese marathons. The DTC strategy has driven over 100% compound annual growth in the professional sports segment's revenue from 2020 to 2024, achieving breakeven in 2023 [4]. Financial Projections - The company forecasts revenues of 14.7 billion RMB, 15.8 billion RMB, and 17 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with net profits of 1.36 billion RMB, 1.52 billion RMB, and 1.69 billion RMB respectively. Corresponding EPS is projected to be 0.49 RMB, 0.55 RMB, and 0.61 RMB, with PE ratios of 9x, 8x, and 8x [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [4][9]. Core Views - The company is expected to continue benefiting from national subsidy policies, leading to a stable double-digit growth trend in revenue [8]. - The revenue forecast for 2025-2027 is adjusted to 1,259.14 billion, 1,332.35 billion, and 1,389.12 billion yuan respectively, with net profit estimates of 47.8 billion, 50.4 billion, and 52.7 billion yuan [2][9]. - The target price is set at 205.93 HKD per share, based on a valuation of 609.4 billion yuan [2][9]. Financial Information - The company’s revenue for 2023 is reported at 1,084.66 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.67% [2]. - The projected revenue growth rates for the upcoming years are 6.84% in 2024, 8.66% in 2025, 5.81% in 2026, and 4.26% in 2027 [2]. - The net profit for 2023 is 24.17 billion yuan, with a significant year-on-year increase of 132.82% [2]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 7.62 yuan in 2023 to 16.50 yuan by 2027 [2]. Segment Performance - The retail segment is projected to achieve revenue of 2,535.7 billion yuan in Q1 2025, reflecting an 11.8% increase [8]. - The logistics segment is expected to generate revenue of 463.2 billion yuan in Q1 2025, with a growth rate of 9.9% [8]. - New business initiatives are anticipated to generate 54.6 billion yuan in revenue for Q1 2025, although they are expected to incur losses [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for XPeng Motors (9868.HK) is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the report indicates a positive outlook on the company's new car cycle and financial improvements [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that XPeng Motors has seen continuous improvement in its financials, with a revenue of 40.87 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%, and a net profit loss of 5.79 billion yuan, which is an improvement of 44.2% year-on-year [2][3]. - The company has expanded its sales network to 690 stores across 226 cities, achieving a delivery volume of 190,000 vehicles in 2024, a growth of 34.2% year-on-year [3]. - The introduction of popular models is expected to drive rapid sales growth, with a significant increase in deliveries in Q1 2025, totaling 94,000 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 331% [3]. - The long-term growth potential of the company is emphasized, with advancements in smart driving technology, international expansion, flying cars, and robotics contributing to its future prospects [3]. Financial Summary - For 2024, the total revenue is projected at 40.87 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 33% [4]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be -5.79 billion yuan for 2024, with a year-on-year improvement of 44% [4]. - The gross margin for 2024 is reported at 14.3%, an increase of 12.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin is -14.2%, narrowing by 19.7 percentage points [3]. - Forecasts for 2025-2027 indicate a gradual improvement in profitability, with net profits expected to be -0.94 billion yuan in 2025, 2.51 billion yuan in 2026, and 6.91 billion yuan in 2027 [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group [3][10]. Core Views - Alibaba Cloud's ecosystem is continuously improving, with accelerated deployment of AI agents. Revenue forecasts for FY2025-2027 are projected at 10027, 10542, and 11445 million yuan, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 1571, 1638, and 1809 million yuan [2][10]. - The company's market capitalization is estimated at 27957 million yuan, corresponding to a per-share value of 157.65 HKD [8][21]. Financial Performance Summary - For FY2025, total revenue is expected to reach 1002754 million yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 6.54%. The adjusted net profit is projected at 132049 million yuan, with a significant increase of 65.60% compared to the previous year [9][11]. - The report highlights a steady increase in operating profit, with a forecast of 133751 million yuan for FY2025, representing an 18.00% growth [9][11]. Business Segment Analysis - **Taobao Group**: Revenue is expected to be 446799 million yuan in FY2025, with a year-over-year growth of 2.74% [11][21]. - **Cloud Intelligence Group**: Anticipated to experience a high growth cycle due to increased domestic AI computing demand, with a projected market value of 8500 million yuan [13][21]. - **International Digital Commerce Group**: Currently in an expansion phase, projected to have a market value of 1691 million yuan based on a PS valuation method [15][21]. - **Cainiao Group**: Expected to achieve a market value of 121 billion yuan, reflecting a stable profitability trend [17][21]. - **Local Life Group**: Valued at 1510 million yuan, utilizing a PS valuation method due to its current lack of profitability [19][21]. - **Entertainment Group**: Estimated market value of 449 million yuan, based on a PS valuation of its subsidiaries [20][21].

港股公司报告 | 公司点评 公司发布 25Q1 业绩公告 九兴控股（01836） 证券研究报告 25Q1 预计量增价减 由于高基数效应，公司收入同比减少 2.2%至 3.3 亿美元。 制造业务 25Q1 收入 3.2 亿美元，同比-1.8%，其中出货量同比+3.4%至 1210 万双，受运动类别所带动；ASP 同比-5.0%至 26.4 美元/双，主要由于平均 售价较低的运动产品订单占比较高所致。 生产工艺与效率：具备高端联名款和限量款生产能力，快反能力强，能够 迅速响应客户订单。 公司 2024 年已实现经营利润率 OPM 约 11.9%，提前达成三年规划 （2023-2025）目标。 公司已建议支付 6000 万美元现金作为 2024 年特别股息，并仍承诺于 2025 年及 2026 年除维持在通常水平 70%的派息率派付定期股息（包括末期股息 及中期股息）外，将通过结合股份回购及派付特别股息的方式向股东返还 每年最多 6000 万美元的额外现金。 具备开发设计能力及核心生产工艺，产能全球布局 开发设计能力：公司拥有强大的研发能力和自主设计能力，能够快速响应 市场需求，开发高附加值产品。 归母净利润 1. ...