丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨理想汽车-W（02015.HK） [Table_Title] 理想汽车点评：11 月销量 3.3 万辆，看好公司 管理及战略转型后带来销量及经营改善 报告要点 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_Summary] 理想 2025 年 11 月销量 3.3 万辆，同比下降 31.9%，环比增长 4.5%。理想汽车产品优势和品 牌设计深入人心，后续车型规划清晰，直营渠道结构持续优化，"双能战略"有望进一步扩大理 想汽车的优势，未来销量空间广阔。 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 理想汽车-W（02015.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 理想汽车点评：2] 11 月销量 3.3 万辆，看好公司 管理及战略转型后带来销量及经营改善 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 理想 202 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for Meituan-W (03690) [2] Core Insights - Meituan is a leading local business platform in China, actively exploring new business increments while facing short-term profit pressure due to increased competition in its core local commerce segment [7][19] - The company is expanding its overseas market presence, which is expected to significantly broaden its Total Addressable Market (TAM) and create structural growth opportunities for future profitability [7][22] - Despite short-term losses, the long-term value of Meituan remains intact due to its established competitive advantages and operational efficiencies [7][30] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Meituan, founded in March 2010, has evolved into a comprehensive platform offering various local services, including food delivery, hotel bookings, and travel services [10] - The revenue structure for 2024 is projected to consist of 74% from core local commerce and 26% from new businesses [13] Q3 2025 Performance Review - In Q3 2025, Meituan reported revenue of 95.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2%, but below market expectations [18] - The core local commerce segment generated revenue of 67.4 billion yuan, down 2.8% year-on-year, primarily due to increased subsidies impacting delivery service revenue [19] Competitive Landscape - The report highlights the competitive pressures from rivals like JD and Alibaba, which have intensified the subsidy wars in the food delivery market [24] - Meituan's operational efficiency and established market presence provide a strong defense against these competitive threats [25] International Expansion - Meituan's overseas expansion, particularly through its Keeta brand, has shown promising results in markets like Hong Kong and Saudi Arabia, with plans to further penetrate the Middle East and Latin America [22][29] Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are estimated at 366.2 billion, 417.4 billion, and 468.9 billion yuan, respectively, with expected adjusted net profits of -17.4 billion, 17.1 billion, and 40.3 billion yuan [30][31] - The report emphasizes that while short-term losses are anticipated, the long-term outlook remains positive due to the company's solid market position and competitive advantages [30]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock over the next 6 to 12 months [2][86]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the express delivery sector, focusing on both volume and quality to achieve sustainable growth. It has a strong market share and is expected to strengthen its competitive edge further [6][10]. - The company has made significant investments in infrastructure, with cumulative capital expenditures exceeding 57 billion yuan from 2016 to Q3 2025, which is notably higher than its peers in the industry [6][24]. - The company has achieved a package volume of approximately 95.7 billion items in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.8% and maintaining a market share of about 19.4% [6][36]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to grow steadily, with expected revenues of 49.05 billion yuan in 2025, 53.58 billion yuan in 2026, and 58.74 billion yuan in 2027, representing growth rates of 10.8%, 9.2%, and 9.6% respectively [2][86]. - The net profit for 2025 is forecasted to be 9.06 billion yuan, with earnings per share expected to reach 11.26 yuan [2][86]. - The company has maintained a strong return on equity (ROE) of around 14% and is expected to improve its profitability metrics over the coming years [2][86]. Operational Efficiency - The company has implemented a "Same Building, Shared Development" strategy, enhancing collaboration with network partners and converting them into shareholders to achieve mutual benefits [10][14]. - The company has invested heavily in automation and technology, leading to a reduction in per-package sorting costs to 0.25 yuan, while transportation costs have decreased to 0.34 yuan per package [6][56]. - The company operates the largest self-owned trunk transportation fleet within its peer group, consisting of over 10,000 vehicles, which enhances its operational efficiency [6][50]. Market Position and Strategy - The company has successfully transitioned from a price competition model to a value competition model, focusing on service quality and customer satisfaction [6][76]. - The company has a robust network of over 31,000 collection and delivery points and more than 100,000 end stations, which supports its extensive logistics operations [6][70]. - The company is expected to continue capturing market share, with a projected package volume of 382 to 387 billion items for the full year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 12.3% to 13.8% [6][38].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Alibaba Group, with a target market value of 3.36 trillion RMB and a target price of 192.48 HKD for FY2026 [5]. Core Insights - Alibaba has restructured its organization to focus on "e-commerce, cloud + AI," enhancing resource allocation and competitive response [2][25]. - The company is actively participating in the instant retail market, which is expected to exceed 2 trillion RMB by 2030, thus defending its market share [16]. - Alibaba Cloud is positioned as a top-tier player in AI and cloud computing, with significant investments in self-developed capabilities [4]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Alibaba Group is a leading global e-commerce and internet technology group that has recently restructured its business into four main segments: China E-commerce Group, International Digital Commerce Group, Cloud Intelligence Group, and Others [2]. Investment Logic - Instant retail is crucial for maintaining e-commerce traffic advantages, with a notable increase in daily active users (DAU) and order volumes since May [3]. - The company has seen a significant rise in order volume, with peak orders reaching 120 million in July, and a substantial increase in market share in the food delivery sector [3][19]. - Alibaba's investment in user experience (UE) is expected to improve as scale and efficiency increase, with current losses narrowing significantly [3]. Financial Forecasts, Valuation, and Rating - The adjusted net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 are 107.9 billion, 149.4 billion, and 175.8 billion RMB, respectively, with corresponding adjusted P/E ratios of 24.8, 17.9, and 15.2 [5]. - The e-commerce business (excluding instant retail) is valued at 11 times earnings, while the cloud business is valued at 7 times sales [5]. - The report anticipates stable market share for Alibaba's traditional e-commerce business and significant growth potential for its cloud services driven by AI [5]. Additional Insights - The report highlights the competitive landscape in the instant retail market, with Alibaba's aggressive strategies to boost user engagement and order fulfillment capabilities [19][39]. - Alibaba's cash reserves are the highest among competitors, providing a strong foundation for sustaining long-term investments in the instant retail sector [51][52]. - The introduction of the "High De" street ranking by Amap aims to synergize online and offline services, indicating potential growth in the in-store business [58].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Xiaomi Group-W (1810.HK) is "Hold" [2]. Core Insights - Xiaomi Group reported impressive financial performance in Q3 2025, with total revenue reaching 113,120.73 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 22.28%. Net profit was 12,270.87 million RMB, marking a significant year-on-year growth of 129.35%, achieving a historical high [5]. Financial Performance - Total revenue for Q3 2025 was 113,120.73 million RMB, up 22.28% year-on-year - Net profit reached 12,270.87 million RMB, reflecting a 129.35% increase year-on-year, also a historical high [5]. Business Development - The traditional core business, smartphones, remains a key pillar with revenue of 46 billion RMB. The combined revenue from smartphones and AIoT was 84.1 billion RMB in the quarter - IoT and lifestyle consumer products generated revenue of 27.6 billion RMB, a year-on-year growth of 5.6% - The automotive business achieved a significant breakthrough, with revenue from smart electric vehicles and AI innovation reaching 29 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of over 199%. The automotive revenue alone was 28.3 billion RMB, with quarterly deliveries exceeding 100,000 units, a record high since its launch [6]. Earnings Forecast - Projected operating revenue for 2024 is 365,906 million RMB, with a growth rate of 35.04% - Expected operating profit for 2024 is 21,519 million RMB, reflecting a growth rate of 53.43% - Forecasted net profit for 2024 is 22,377 million RMB, with a growth rate of 61.78% [8]. Financial Statements and Projections - Total assets are projected to grow from 403,155 million RMB in 2024 to 534,956 million RMB by 2027 - Total liabilities are expected to increase from 213,950 million RMB in 2024 to 283,527 million RMB in 2027 - Shareholder equity is anticipated to rise from 189,205 million RMB in 2024 to 251,430 million RMB in 2027 [9]. Valuation Analysis - The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 33.89 in 2024 to 15.02 by 2027 - The price-to-book (PB) ratio is expected to decline from 4.01 in 2024 to 1.73 in 2027 [11].

| 投资评级： | 持有 | 主要观点： | | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-12-04 |  财务表现 | | | | 增长3%。 | 近52周股价走势 中芯国际：毛利率小幅上涨，利润依然承压 中芯国际（00981.HK） 财务表现 在2025年第三季度，中芯国际的财务表现呈现出整体上升的局面。 尽管公司营收达到2381.82百万美元，实现了9.7%的同比增长，净 利润也有一定的增长。本季度归母净利润为191.76百万美元，同比 上升了28.87%，环比大幅增长了44.74%。与此同时，毛利率为22%， 超出管理层给出18-20%指引上限；产能利用率上升至95.8%，环比 增长3%。 业务发展 中芯国际三季度来自手机市场的收入同比下滑5.3%；平板与PC收 入同比增长1.7%，增速较此前2个季度明显回落；消费电子收入同 比增长11.8%，增速同样大幅回落；互联与可穿戴收入同比增长7%， 增速回正，较此前明显回暖，但营收占比只有8%；汽车与工业营 收同比增长65%，是支撑中芯国际营收增长的主要动力。 盈利预测 风险提示 作者 1.利润压力持续：资本支出主要用于12英寸圆 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [2][8]. Core Insights - The current competitive landscape for Online Travel Agencies (OTAs) is stabilizing, with the company focusing on enhancing operational efficiency and deepening its presence in the tourism industry. The company's profitability is on an upward trajectory due to optimized user marketing strategies, refined subsidies, and improved profitability in outbound travel. There remains potential for further increases in sales expense ratios and take rates, which are expected to support continuous growth in profit margins [2][6][9]. Revenue and Profitability - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 5.509 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%. Adjusted net profit reached 1.06 billion yuan, up 16.5% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 19.2%, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase year-on-year [6][9]. - The core OTA business saw steady growth, with revenue of 4.609 billion yuan in Q3, a 14.9% increase year-on-year. The hotel management business also maintained high growth, with revenue from hotel management and other services reaching 0.821 billion yuan, up 34.9% [9]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve overall revenues of 19.32 billion, 21.66 billion, and 24.60 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively. Adjusted net profits are expected to be 3.37 billion, 3.87 billion, and 4.40 billion yuan for the same years, corresponding to a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 14, 13, and 11 times at the current stock price [2][9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 new vehicles, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.9% but a month-on-month decrease of 12.6%. Cumulatively, from January to November 2025, the total deliveries reached 392,000 units, up 155.5% year-on-year [2][4]. - The launch of the new X9 extended-range model has led to a rapid increase in deliveries, with November deliveries for the X9 increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model has gained significant popularity, with over 50% of orders coming from northern regions [6]. - The company is expected to deliver between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles in Q4 2025, which would represent a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Projected revenue for this period is estimated to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion HKD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [6]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In November 2025, the company delivered 36,728 vehicles, with a year-on-year growth of 18.9% and a month-on-month decline of 12.6%. Total deliveries from January to November reached 392,000 units, marking a 155.5% increase year-on-year [2][4]. New Product Launches - The new X9 extended-range model has been well-received, with November deliveries increasing by 161% month-on-month. The model set a record for daily orders shortly after its launch, indicating strong market demand [6]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong sales cycle driven by new product launches and advancements in AI technology. The expected revenue for 2025 is projected at 76.9 billion HKD, with a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9X, supporting the "Buy" rating [6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Meituan [9] Core Insights - In Q3 FY2025, Meituan's revenue reached 954.9 billion CNY, which was below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 974.7 billion CNY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2%. The adjusted net loss was 160.1 billion CNY, exceeding the expected loss of 139.6 billion CNY [6][10] - The report highlights that the competitive pressure in the food delivery sector has peaked, and as subsidies narrow, the focus will shift towards user retention and brand recognition, which are crucial for long-term repurchase rather than new customer acquisition [2][10] - The report projects Meituan's overall revenue for 2025-2027 to be 3,640.67 billion CNY, 4,084.78 billion CNY, and 4,551.56 billion CNY, with adjusted net profits of -115.25 billion CNY, 215.34 billion CNY, and 445.67 billion CNY respectively [2][10] Summary by Sections Overall Performance - Core local business revenue was 674 billion CNY, below the consensus estimate of 692 billion CNY, with an operating loss of 141 billion CNY compared to the expected loss of 126 billion CNY. The operating profit margin was -20.9% [10] - New business revenue was 280 billion CNY, slightly below the expected 286 billion CNY, with a year-on-year operating loss increase of 24.5% to 13 billion CNY [10] Food Delivery and Flash Purchase - The core local business saw a significant operating loss of approximately 191 billion CNY in Q3, with the average order value (AOV) for high-priced orders (above 15 CNY) accounting for two-thirds of the gross transaction value (GTV) [10] - The report emphasizes that user stickiness and brand recognition are essential for the platform's capabilities, and future competition will likely focus on operational efficiency and service quality [10] In-store Dining and Travel - The in-store dining and travel segment contributed approximately 180 billion CNY in revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 12%. The operating profit was 51 billion CNY, with a profit margin of 28% [10] New Business Initiatives - Meituan's new business, Keeta, officially launched operations in Brazil, with expectations of manageable investment levels. The report anticipates that Keeta could contribute significantly to Meituan's GTV in the long term [10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Bosideng with a target price of HKD 6.0 [1][4]. Core Insights - Bosideng's revenue for the first half of FY26 increased by 1.4% year-on-year to RMB 89.28 billion, while net profit rose by 5.3% to RMB 11.89 billion, indicating healthy growth [2][4]. - The brand's down jacket business saw an 8.3% increase in revenue to RMB 65.68 billion, although the gross margin declined by 2.0 percentage points to 59.1% [2][4]. - The OEM business faced challenges, with revenue decreasing by 11.7% to RMB 20.44 billion, but gross margin improved by 0.4 percentage points to 20.5% due to better supply chain management [3][4]. - The women's clothing segment experienced an 18.6% decline in revenue to RMB 2.51 billion, reflecting a tough market environment [3][4]. - The company is focusing on optimizing channel quality and enhancing store operations, with a net increase of 88 down jacket stores to 3,558 [3][4]. Financial Summary - For FY26, the projected earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be RMB 0.35, with a growth forecast of 10.1% for revenue and 11.3% for net profit [4][5]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 57.3% for FY26, with a net profit margin of 13.7% [5][14]. - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue from RMB 28.51 billion in FY26 to RMB 34.70 billion by FY28, with corresponding net profits rising from RMB 3.91 billion to RMB 4.86 billion [5][14].