Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [11][23]. Core Insights - The company is a leading provider of real-time data infrastructure in China, having built a competitive moat based on its decade-long experience in the asset management industry, and is now diversifying into various sectors [2][24]. - The real-time data processing market in China is in a high-growth phase, with a projected CAGR of 46.1% from 2020 to 2024, and expected to reach 50.5 billion yuan by 2029 [11][52]. - The company has a market share of 3.4% in the real-time data infrastructure and analytics market, ranking fourth, and holds the top position in the asset management sector with an 11.6% market share [27][32]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections (in million RMB) are as follows: - 2024: 632 - 2025: 1,183 - 2026: 2,177 - 2027: 3,311 - Corresponding growth rates are 19%, 87%, 84%, and 52% respectively [4][11]. - The company is expected to achieve a net profit of 311 million yuan by 2027, with an EPS of 0.97 yuan [11][19]. Business Segmentation - The company started in the asset management sector, providing comprehensive real-time data solutions, and is now expanding into diversified industries such as financial services, urban management, production management, and telecommunications [24][42]. - Revenue from diversified industries is projected to grow significantly, with expected growth rates of 120%, 105%, and 60% from 2025 to 2027 [16][17]. Market Potential - The report highlights the potential of the real-time data processing market in China, driven by AI advancements and increasing demand for data processing solutions [11][52]. - The penetration rate of real-time data processing in China is currently below 4%, indicating substantial room for growth [11][52]. Valuation - The target market capitalization is set at 33.8 billion HKD, with a target price of 104.78 HKD per share, based on a combination of PE and PS valuation methods [11][23][21].

Investment Rating - The report aligns with the views of CITIC Securities and maintains a positive outlook on SMIC, indicating that the company's performance is expected to meet market expectations [5][6]. Core Insights - SMIC's Q4 2025 performance and Q1 2026 guidance are in line with expectations, with a revenue increase of 4.5% quarter-on-quarter to $2.49 billion, surpassing the guidance of 0%-2% [6]. - The company anticipates that the supply of consumer electronic storage chips will ease within 9-12 months due to new capacity ramp-up and inventory release [7]. - Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to remain flat at $8.1 billion, while depreciation expenses are expected to rise by 30% year-on-year [8]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q4 2025 revenue reached $2.49 billion, with a gross margin of 19.2%, which is within the guidance range of 18%-20% [6]. - The Q1 2026 revenue guidance is expected to remain stable at $2.49 billion, with a gross margin forecasted between 18%-20% [6]. Capital Expenditure and Depreciation - Capital expenditures for 2025 were $8.1 billion, exceeding guidance due to strong customer demand and geopolitical uncertainties affecting equipment delivery [8]. - The company plans to increase its 12-inch wafer capacity by 40,000 pieces per month in 2026, while maintaining high capacity utilization to mitigate depreciation pressure [8]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights that SMIC will benefit from the deepening domestic substitution of mature and advanced process chips [9]. - Factors such as improved yield rates in advanced processes and progress in domestic deep ultraviolet lithography (DUV) are seen as catalysts for growth [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its performance and market position [8]. Core Insights - The company reported better-than-expected earnings, with a significant order backlog of $15.5 billion for AI servers, showcasing strong growth potential in this segment [2][8]. - The company’s revenue for FY25/26Q3 reached $22.204 billion, reflecting an 18.13% year-over-year increase, while adjusted net profit rose by 35.54% [8]. - The PC segment continues to lead the industry, with revenue of $15.755 billion in FY25/26Q3, a 14.30% increase year-over-year, outperforming global PC shipment growth [8]. - The Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) reported revenue of $5.176 billion, a 31.42% increase, with AI servers showing double-digit growth [8]. - The company is expected to effectively manage the impact of rising storage costs due to its robust supply chain and procurement capabilities [8]. Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for FY25/26, FY26/27, and FY27/28 are $79.485 billion, $91.551 billion, and $105.244 billion respectively, with corresponding net profits of $1.672 billion, $2.029 billion, and $2.433 billion [7][9]. - The company’s net profit margin is expected to improve, with a projected PE ratio of 8.5x for FY25/26, decreasing to 5.9x by FY27/28 [8].

叶可以分公司中 | 市场数据: | 2026年02月12日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 38.32 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 46.88/22.40 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 391.43 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,021.48 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 报告原因: 有业绩公布需要点评 ar (维持) -年内股价与基准指数对比走势： 资料来源：Bloomberq 相关研究 证券分析师 林起贤 A0230519060002 linqx@swsresearch.com 夏嘉励 A0230522090001 xiajl@swsresearch.com (00772) 新丽传媒拖累 25 年利润，版权运营延续向上趋势 事件: 公司发布盈利预警：1）预计 25 年调整后归母净利润为 8-9 亿元，低于预期，较 24 年调整 ● 后归母净利润 11.4 亿元（新丽传媒 3.4 亿元，在线业务+阅文自有版权运营业务 8 亿元) 对应同比下滑 21-30%。2) 预计 25 年调整前归母净亏 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [6] Core Insights - The overall impact of storage price increases is manageable, and the strategic restructuring plan is expected to accelerate the return to profitability for the ISG business [1] - In FY26Q3, Lenovo's revenue reached $22.204 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase and a 9% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI-related business revenue growing by 72% and accounting for 32% of total revenue [1] - The adjusted net profit for FY26Q3 was $589 million, a 36% year-over-year increase and a 15% quarter-over-quarter increase, primarily due to the exclusion of one-time restructuring costs [1] IDG Business (Intelligent Devices Group) - In FY26Q3, IDG business revenue was $15.755 billion, up 14% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, driven by high growth in AI PC revenue and increased sales of high-end products [2] - The PC business revenue grew by 18% year-over-year, with Lenovo's global market share reaching 25.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points [2] - Smartphone sales and activations reached historical highs, supported by strong performance from high-end models [2] ISG Business (Infrastructure Solutions Group) - ISG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $5.176 billion, a 31% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter increase, with AI server revenue showing high double-digit growth [3] - The company has a project reserve amounting to $15.5 billion, and the deployment of NVIDIA's solutions has been initiated [3] - A one-time restructuring cost of $285 million was incurred to optimize the product mix and improve productivity [3] SSG Business (Solutions and Services Group) - SSG business revenue in FY26Q3 was $2.652 billion, up 18% year-over-year and 4% quarter-over-quarter, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit year-over-year growth [4] - The operating profit margin was 22.5%, close to historical highs, with maintenance services and project solutions being the core growth drivers [4] Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - The FY26 net profit forecast has been raised by 4% to $1.682 billion due to better-than-expected FY26Q3 performance, while FY27 and FY28 net profit forecasts remain at $1.743 billion and $1.917 billion, respectively [4]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, Wallrun Technology (壁仞科技) [2][7]. Core Insights - Wallrun Technology is a leading domestic AI chip company focusing on GPGPU architecture and intelligent computing solutions, with a strong emphasis on proprietary technology and a diverse team background [6][15]. - The company has achieved significant revenue growth projections, with expected revenues of RMB 9.5 billion, RMB 20.2 billion, and RMB 39.5 billion for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively [7]. - The report highlights the company's innovative product offerings, including the BR106 and BR166 chips, which are designed for large-scale AI training and inference applications [25][28]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Wallrun Technology are as follows: RMB 62 million in 2023, RMB 337 million in 2024, RMB 945 million in 2025, RMB 2,021 million in 2026, and RMB 3,951 million in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 12,330.86%, 442.97%, 180.61%, 113.83%, and 95.51% respectively [5]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts indicate losses of RMB 1,051 million in 2023, RMB 767 million in 2024, RMB 827 million in 2025, and a reduced loss of RMB 632 million in 2026, with a projected profit of RMB 74 million in 2027 [5][7]. - The company's gross margin is expected to fluctuate, with rates of 76.4% in 2023, 53.2% in 2024, and 31.9% in the first half of 2025, primarily due to changes in product sales mix [6][35]. Technology and Product Development - Wallrun Technology focuses on GPGPU architecture and has developed a comprehensive hardware and software ecosystem, including the BIRENSUPA software platform, which supports major AI frameworks [20][31]. - The company is pioneering advanced technologies such as Chiplet architecture and optical interconnects, enhancing the performance and scalability of its AI computing systems [50][53]. - The BR20X chip is expected to be commercialized in 2026, featuring improved performance and support for various data formats, further solidifying the company's market position [29][30]. Market Position and Ecosystem - Wallrun Technology has established strong partnerships with major telecommunications operators and is expanding its customer base, with a projected revenue contribution from its top five customers decreasing over time [6][38]. - The report emphasizes the growing domestic AI capital expenditure (Capex) market, which is expected to accommodate multiple AI chip companies, indicating a favorable environment for Wallrun Technology's growth [8][7]. - The company has successfully implemented a domestic supply chain strategy, ensuring production and research continuity despite external challenges [54].

上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 点 计算机 2026 年 02 月 13 日 联想集团 (00992) ——业绩超预期，AI 服务器在手订单 155 亿美元 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 | 市场数据： | 2026 年 02 月 12 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 9.00 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9175.18 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 13.60/6.57 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 1,116.42 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 12,404.66 | | 汇率（港币/人民币） | 0.8888 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -41% 9% 59% HSCEI 联想集团 资料来源：Bloomberg 相关研究 买入（维持） 《联想集团（00992）点评：业绩超预期， AI 服务器维持高增》 2025/11/22 《联想集团（00992）点评：PC 复苏超预 期，AI 服务器高速增长》 2025/08/14 《联想集团（00992）深度：被低估的 ICT 全 栈 供 应 商 （ GenAI 系列之 59 ） 》 2025/0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has issued a profit warning, expecting an adjusted net profit of 800-900 million yuan for 2025, which is below expectations and represents a year-on-year decline of 21-30% compared to 1.14 billion yuan in 2024 [7] - The decline in profit is primarily attributed to New Classics Media, which is expected to report a loss of 140 million yuan in 2025 due to goodwill impairment of approximately 1.8 billion yuan [7] - The online business and the company's proprietary copyright operations are expected to perform in line with expectations, with a good growth rate in copyright operations [7] - The company is transitioning from a "hit-driven" model to an "IP pool monetization" strategy, leveraging AI to reduce production costs and time for animated adaptations [7] - The company has launched a global toy co-creation plan to enhance its derivative product business, collaborating with top artists to incubate original IP [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 7.012 billion yuan - 2024: 8.121 billion yuan - 2025E: 7.265 billion yuan - 2026E: 8.002 billion yuan - 2027E: 8.661 billion yuan - Adjusted net profit forecasts are as follows: - 2023: 1.130 billion yuan - 2024: 1.142 billion yuan - 2025E: 843 million yuan - 2026E: 1.452 billion yuan - 2027E: 1.648 billion yuan [9][10] - The report anticipates a target price-to-earnings ratio of 30x for 2026, leading to a target market capitalization of 49 billion HKD, indicating a potential upside of 25% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Lenovo Group (0992.HK) [1][11] Core Insights - The strategic restructuring is expected to accelerate the ISG business back to profitability, indicating a positive outlook for the company's future development [2] - In FY2026Q3, Lenovo achieved revenue of approximately $22.204 billion, representing an 18% year-over-year increase and an 8.6% quarter-over-quarter increase. The gross margin was around 15%, with a net profit of $546 million, down 21% year-over-year but up 60% quarter-over-quarter [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In FY2026Q3, Lenovo's adjusted net profit was approximately $589 million, a 36% year-over-year increase, reflecting operational leverage improvements and a higher contribution from high-end product offerings [6] - The smart devices business group saw a 14% year-over-year revenue increase, with operating profit rising by 15%, driven by higher average selling prices and improved product mix [6] Business Segments - The infrastructure solutions group reported record revenue of $5.2 billion, a 31% year-over-year increase, aided by an expanding customer base in cloud infrastructure [7] - The solutions services group achieved an 18% year-over-year revenue growth, marking 19 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth, with operating profit margin reaching 22.5% [8] Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for FY2026 to FY2028 are estimated at $80.144 billion, $87.600 billion, and $93.235 billion, respectively, with non-HKFRS net profits of $1.796 billion, $1.973 billion, and $2.111 billion [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC) [2][12]. Core Views - The report indicates that the impact of memory price increases on demand is relatively controllable, and the company is expected to perform well in the upcoming quarters [6][12]. - The target price for SMIC has been adjusted to HKD 91.00, reflecting a potential upside of 30% from the current price of HKD 70.00 [1][12]. Financial Summary - Revenue projections for SMIC are as follows: - 2024: USD 8,030 million - 2025: USD 9,327 million - 2026E: USD 10,685 million - 2027E: USD 12,357 million - 2028E: USD 14,060 million - Year-on-year growth rates are projected at 27.0% for 2024, 16.2% for 2025, and 14.6% for 2026 [5][13]. - Net profit estimates are: - 2024: USD 493 million - 2025: USD 685 million - 2026E: USD 1,199 million - 2027E: USD 1,547 million - 2028E: USD 2,021 million [5][13]. Performance Metrics - The company reported a gross margin of 19.2% for Q4 2025, which is a decrease from 22.6% in Q4 2024 [7]. - The net profit margin for Q4 2025 was 6.9%, up from 4.9% in Q4 2024 [7]. - The report anticipates a rise in depreciation levels by 30% in 2026, which may exert pressure on the company's gross margin [6][12]. Market Position - The company is positioned to benefit from the domestic substitution process in the wafer foundry industry, which is expected to continue driving growth [6][12]. - The management has indicated that the sales growth for 2026 is expected to exceed the average of comparable peers [6].