丨证券研究报告丨 港股研究丨公司点评丨协鑫科技（3800.HK） [Table_Title] 现金成本进一步优化，产品质量稳步提升 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 协鑫科技发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入 57.35 亿元，同比减少 35.30%；净利润 亏损 17.76 亿元。 邬博华 曹海花 王耀 任佳惠 申浩树 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490522030001 SAC：S0490524120006 SAC：S0490524070005 SAC：S0490525060004 SFC：BQK482 research.95579.com 1 协鑫科技（3800.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 现金成本进一步优化，产品质量稳步提升 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 协鑫科技发布 2025 年半年报，2025H1 公司实现收入 57.35 亿元，同比减少 35.30%；净利润 亏损 17.76 亿元。 事件评论 丨证券研 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" investment rating for the company [4] Core Views - The company reported a significant increase in profit, with a year-on-year growth of 144% in net profit to 699 million yuan, driven by strong performance across its three main business segments [1] - The revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 281.59 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 21% [1] - The company's investment in technology projects continues to grow, with over 50 technology projects invested in during the first half of 2025 [2] Summary by Sections Industry Operations - The industry operations segment achieved revenue of 279.14 billion yuan, up 21% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.836 billion yuan, an increase of 28% [1] - Lenovo Group's revenue saw double-digit growth across all main business lines, contributing a net profit of 1.341 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21% [1] - The Luxembourg International Bank reported a net profit of 633 million yuan, up 17% year-on-year, due to optimized business structure [1] Investment and Incubation - The incubation and investment segment generated revenue of 2.451 billion yuan, a 10% year-on-year increase, with a net loss of 386 million yuan, a reduction of 14% year-on-year [2] - The company continues to support the long-term development of invested enterprises in the technology sector through its venture capital arms [2] Financial Projections - The projected earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 0.55 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 1.04 yuan respectively [2] - The report estimates a target price of 11.76 HKD for the next six months, based on a price-to-book ratio of 0.45 times for 2025 [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [5][17]. Core Insights - The company has maintained stable revenue with a slight decline of 0.8% year-on-year, achieving a revenue of 4.36 billion yuan in the first half of 2025. The gross profit was 3.72 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 85.3%, down by 1.2 percentage points [1][8]. - The company reported a significant increase in net profit attributable to shareholders, reaching 1.36 billion yuan, which is a 24.6% increase year-on-year. Adjusted operating net profit was 1.14 billion yuan, up by 2.1% [1][8]. - The company has entered a significant collaboration with Pfizer regarding the PD1xVEGF dual antibody 707, with an upfront payment of 1.25 billion USD and potential milestone payments up to 4.8 billion USD, along with a double-digit percentage of sales revenue [2][14]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company's R&D expenses were 548 million yuan, representing a 15.0% increase, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.6% [1][8]. - Sales expenses were 1.62 billion yuan, up by 1.4%, with a sales expense ratio of 37.1%. Management expenses increased significantly by 40.9% to 283 million yuan, with a management expense ratio of 6.5% [1][8]. - The company's leverage ratio improved significantly, decreasing from 19.7% at the end of the previous year to 9.9% [1][8]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 2.38 billion yuan, 2.71 billion yuan, and 3.07 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 13.9%, 13.7%, and 13.3% [3][17]. - The projected price-to-earnings ratios (PE) for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 30.2, 26.6, and 23.5, respectively [3][17].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [5] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 176 million yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 77%, with overseas market revenue growing by 189%. The net loss was 115 million yuan, a significant reduction of 58.9%. The expectation is for continued high growth in revenue due to new product launches and accelerated overseas expansion in 2025 [1][2][4]. Summary by Sections Growth Potential - The company is expected to experience high revenue growth in 2025 driven by both domestic and overseas markets. Overseas orders have seen rapid growth, with over 80 commercial orders and more than 60 installations globally. The company has received CE certification for its surgical robots, allowing for expansion into various surgical fields [2][3]. - The domestic market is also poised for growth as the National Health Commission has increased the number of approved laparoscopic surgical systems significantly, which is expected to boost installations [2]. - New products are being commercialized, including a single-port surgical robot and a remote surgical robot, enhancing market competitiveness [2][3]. Profitability - The company reported a net loss of 115 million yuan in H1 2025, a reduction of 58.9%. With ongoing product rollouts and improved management, the expense ratio is expected to decline, leading to further narrowing of losses in 2025 [4]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 480 million, 885 million, and 1.302 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 86.55%, 84.38%, and 47.11% respectively. The expected net profit for 2025 is projected at -258 million yuan, with an EPS of -0.25 yuan [5][11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][13]. Core Views - The company is expected to experience robust growth driven by its cloud transformation and AI project implementations, with an upward revision of net profit estimates for 2025-2027 to 550 million, 730 million, and 890 million RMB, reflecting year-on-year growth of 43%, 32%, and 22% respectively [6][8]. - The current stock price corresponds to a PE valuation of 17.7, 13.4, and 10.9 times for 2025-2027, indicating potential for valuation elasticity as the company is expected to be included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [6][8]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.34 billion RMB, a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, and a net profit of 183 million RMB, up 73.3% [7]. - The gross margin improved to 23.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points, with reductions in R&D, management, and sales expense ratios contributing to profit margin enhancement [7]. - The cloud business turned profitable for the first time in the first half of the year, reflecting a positive trend in the company's financial health [7]. AI and Cloud Business Growth - The company has successfully implemented its "AI First" strategy, with AI applications now covering over 10 fields and more than 100 ready-to-use intelligent agents [8]. - The continuous expansion of AI project scenarios is expected to enhance the sustainability of growth in the cloud business, particularly in the context of digital transformation driven by government policies [8].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7][8]. Core Views - The company focuses on its Prophet platform to provide AI capabilities, with a product structure that includes standardized and customized offerings. The revenue split for 2024 is expected to be 70% from the Prophet platform and products, and 30% from application development and other services [7]. - The management team is composed of top-tier technical experts with backgrounds in leading internet companies, which enhances the company's competitive edge [7]. - The standardization strategy is expected to drive rapid customer expansion in the short term and ensure long-term product stickiness and competitiveness [7][10]. - The company is also expanding into the consumer electronics market, which could generate over 2 billion yuan in annual revenue [7]. - The company is positioned as a domestic counterpart to Palantir, with similarities in product form, customer expansion, and development stages [7]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2023A to 2027E are as follows: - 2023A: 4,204 million yuan - 2024A: 5,261 million yuan - 2025E: 6,852 million yuan - 2026E: 8,819 million yuan - 2027E: 11,226 million yuan - The expected revenue growth rates are 36.4% for 2023A, 25.1% for 2024A, 30.2% for 2025E, 28.7% for 2026E, and 27.3% for 2027E [6]. - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is projected to turn positive by 2025E, with figures of 55 million yuan, 283 million yuan, and 568 million yuan for 2025E, 2026E, and 2027E respectively, reflecting growth rates of 416.6% and 100.9% in subsequent years [6][8]. Key Assumptions - The revenue from the Prophet platform and products is expected to grow at rates of 43%, 36%, and 32% from 2025 to 2027, while the application development and other services are projected to decline slightly [9]. - The company has accumulated significant industry know-how through benchmark projects, which supports its standardization strategy [10][44]. Market Position - The company ranks first in the Chinese machine learning platform market share for 2024 and has been a leader for seven consecutive years [25][26]. - The report highlights the company's ability to adapt to the unique characteristics of the Chinese software market, focusing on standardization while addressing customization needs [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a target price of 12.11 HKD, maintaining the rating from previous assessments [4]. Core Insights - The company's revenue from imaging and design business continues to grow, with a year-on-year increase of 45.2% to 1.351 billion RMB in the first half of 2025. Advertising revenue also saw a growth of 5.1% to 434 million RMB, together accounting for 98% of total revenue [1][10]. - The overall gross margin improved by 4.9 percentage points to 73.6%, and the adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 71.34% to 470 million RMB, aligning with voluntary announcement expectations [1][12]. - The company is focusing on AI-enabled applications in imaging and design, enhancing its product matrix to meet diverse creator needs, and has launched the AI design agent "RoboNeo" to innovate productivity tools [3][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Imaging and Design Core Business Optimization - The imaging and design product revenue is on a continuous rise, with a strategic adjustment in the beauty and other business sectors. The revenue from imaging and design reached 1.351 billion RMB, while advertising revenue was 434 million RMB, making up 98% of total revenue [1][10]. - The company is leveraging AI capabilities to enhance product offerings, focusing on both consumer and business segments, including KOLs and small enterprises [10]. 2. Overseas Strategy and Productivity Tool Layout - The company has seen a significant increase in Monthly Active Users (MAU), with an 8.6% year-on-year growth, reaching 280 million. The number of subscription users rose by 42.5% to 15.4 million, with a subscription penetration rate of 5.5% [2][15]. - The MAU in the domestic market grew by 5.2% to 182 million, while overseas MAU increased by 15.7% to 98 million, driven by localized strategies and collaborations with local KOLs [16]. - The productivity tools are entering a growth phase, with a 90% year-on-year increase in MAU and even faster growth in paid users [16].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [7] Core Views - The company is positioned to benefit from a standardized product strategy that enhances customer acquisition in the short term and maintains competitive advantages in the long term [6][9] - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projections of 68.52 billion, 88.19 billion, and 112.26 billion CNY for 2025-2027, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 30%, 29%, and 27% respectively [7][8] - The company aims to transition towards standardized products, which is anticipated to improve market penetration and customer retention [6][9] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue (in million CNY) for the years 2023A to 2027E is projected as follows: - 2023A: 4,204 - 2024A: 5,261 - 2025E: 6,852 - 2026E: 8,819 - 2027E: 11,226 - The revenue growth rates are expected to be 36.4% in 2023, 25.1% in 2024, 30.2% in 2025, 28.7% in 2026, and 27.3% in 2027 [5][7] - The net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders (in million CNY) is forecasted as follows: - 2023A: -909 - 2024A: -269 - 2025E: 55 - 2026E: 283 - 2027E: 568 - The net profit growth rates are projected to be 416.6% in 2026 and 100.9% in 2027 [5][7] Business Segmentation - The company's business can be divided into two main segments: 1. Prophet Platform and Products (70% of 2024 revenue) 2. Application Development and Other Services (30% of 2024 revenue) [6][22] - The Prophet Platform includes standardized software and hardware products, while Application Development encompasses SHIFT intelligent solutions and AIGS services [6][22] Market Positioning - The company is recognized as a leader in the Chinese machine learning platform market, having maintained the top position for seven consecutive years [20][21] - The company’s strategy focuses on leveraging industry know-how accumulated through benchmark projects to enhance its standardized product offerings [9][38] Growth Catalysts - Key growth drivers include exceeding revenue growth expectations, increased revenue contribution from the Prophet platform, successful expansion into the consumer electronics market, and rising downstream AI demand [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 694 million yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, and a net profit of 161 million yuan, up 15.3% year-on-year. Despite a slight slowdown in revenue growth, profit growth remains strong due to factors such as increased procurement volume and price, government subsidies, and R&D grants. The company is expected to see significant revenue and profit growth in the second half of the year driven by overseas revenue growth and increased surgical volumes [1] Summary by Sections Growth Potential - Hip joint revenue showed steady growth, while single-compartment knee joint revenue experienced short-term fluctuations due to price adjustments from centralized procurement. In H1 2025, hip joint revenue was 410 million yuan, up 14% year-on-year, while knee joint revenue was 194 million yuan, down 0.7% year-on-year. The company expects revenue and profit growth in H2 2025 as the impact of price adjustments from centralized procurement stabilizes [2] - Overseas revenue showed some fluctuations in H1 2025, with domestic revenue at 570 million yuan (up 6% year-on-year) and overseas revenue at 128 million yuan (up 4% year-on-year). The company is expanding its overseas presence, having registered in four new countries and having 15 countries in the approval process. High growth in overseas revenue is anticipated in H2 2025 [3] Profitability - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 60%. In H1 2025, the gross margin was 59.1%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points due to the impact of centralized procurement and a decline in overseas revenue proportion. The company anticipates a recovery in gross margin in H2 2025 as overseas revenue growth resumes [4] - The net profit margin is expected to remain above 20%. In H1 2025, the net profit margin was 23.1%, an increase of 2.0 percentage points year-on-year, supported by government and R&D subsidies. The company expects a slight decrease in expense ratios, maintaining a net profit margin above 20% for the year [4] Financial Forecast and Investment Advice - The company forecasts revenues of 1.597 billion yuan, 1.930 billion yuan, and 2.300 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.6%, 20.8%, and 19.2%. The net profit is expected to be 330 million yuan, 402 million yuan, and 478 million yuan for the same years, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 20.3%, 22.1%, and 18.9%. The estimated EPS for these years is 0.29 yuan, 0.36 yuan, and 0.43 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of approximately 18 times for 2025, maintaining a "Buy" rating [5]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong growth in its camera module business, particularly in the automotive and IoT sectors, with a significant increase in both revenue and profit margins [3][4][5]. - The company reported a revenue of RMB 8.832 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.07%, and a net profit of RMB 308 million, which is a remarkable increase of 167.59% [3]. - The average selling price of camera modules has increased by approximately 27.2% year-on-year, driven by the optimization of product structure [4]. Company Overview - The latest closing price is HKD 14.16, with a total market capitalization of HKD 168.44 billion [2]. - The company has a debt-to-asset ratio of 65.06% and a price-to-earnings ratio of 32.96 [2]. Business Segments - The smartphone camera module segment has seen a shift towards high-end specifications, with modules of 32 million pixels and above accounting for about 53.4% of total sales, an increase of 5.5 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - In the non-smartphone sector, the company shipped 8.084 million camera modules for automotive and IoT applications, marking a year-on-year growth of 47.9% [5]. - The fingerprint recognition module business also experienced significant growth, with revenue reaching RMB 830 million, a year-on-year increase of 109.3% [6][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of RMB 19.124 billion, RMB 21.705 billion, and RMB 24.472 billion for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [10]. - The net profit forecast for the same years is RMB 745 million, RMB 938 million, and RMB 1.102 billion, indicating strong growth potential [10]. Strategic Developments - The company has deepened its vertical integration in smart vision systems, enhancing its capabilities in smartphone, IoT, and NB sectors through strategic investments [9]. - The company has established partnerships with seven leading automotive Tier 1 manufacturers, which supports its growth in the automotive camera module market [5].