上 市 公 司 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 2025 年 12 月 24 日 通威股份 (600438) ——周期拐点确立，成本壁垒构筑长期护城河 报告原因：首次覆盖 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | | 2024 | 2025Q1-3 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 91,994 | 64,600 | 90,909 | 106,471 | 124,081 | | 同比增长率（%） | -33.9 | -5.4 | -1.2 | 17.1 | 16.5 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | -7,039 | -5,270 | -6,098 | 2,883 | 5,963 | | 同比增长率（%） | -151.9 | - | - | - | 106.9 | | 每股收益（元/股） | -1.58 | -1.17 | -1.35 | 0.64 | 1.32 | | 毛利率（%） | 6.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 10.7 | 14.1 | | ROE（%） | -14.5 | ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with an "Accumulate" rating for the company [3][9]. Core Insights - The company has successfully transitioned to innovative drug development, particularly in the ADC (Antibody-Drug Conjugate) sector, highlighted by a significant global collaboration with BMS worth $8.4 billion for the EGFR/HER3 dual-target ADC, which positions the company for accelerated growth [6][8]. - The core product, iza-bren, is advancing through clinical trials and is expected to enter commercialization soon, with a potential market approval in 2026 for nasopharyngeal carcinoma [8][41]. - The company has established four major technology platforms that support a diverse pipeline of innovative drug candidates, enhancing its competitive edge in the oncology market [37][41]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2025 are estimated at 2,211 million yuan, with a significant year-on-year decline of 62% due to increased R&D investments [7]. - The company anticipates net losses of 599 million yuan in 2025, with further losses projected for 2026 and 2027 [9]. - The gross margin is expected to decrease from 89% in 2025 to 85.6% by 2027, reflecting the evolving product mix as innovative drugs gain market traction [7][10]. Pipeline Analysis - The company is focusing on the clinical development of iza-bren, with multiple indications being pursued, including high-incidence tumors, and aims to submit additional regulatory applications in the coming years [8][41]. - Other innovative products in the pipeline, such as HER2 ADC and EGFR/HER3 dual-target antibodies, are also under development and could significantly contribute to future revenue [8][11]. Valuation and Market Potential - The target market capitalization for the company is set at 159.4 billion yuan, indicating a 13% upside potential from the current market value [9]. - The report emphasizes that the current market valuation does not fully reflect the potential of the company's diverse pipeline, suggesting further upside as clinical data emerges [11].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2]. Core Insights - The company has been deeply engaged in the automotive bumper sector for over 30 years and is a leading supplier of automotive exterior parts, with steady growth in its main business [4][12]. - The global automotive bumper market is projected to grow from 156.8 billion yuan in 2022 to 200.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.4% from 2022 to 2025 [4][76]. - The company has established strong relationships with major clients, including well-known electric vehicle manufacturers and luxury brands, which has significantly improved its profitability [5][84]. - The company is actively expanding into the emerging market of humanoid robots, focusing on lightweight materials to enhance efficiency and safety [6][94]. Summary by Sections 1. Automotive Bumper Leader with Steady Growth - The company has a robust production capacity exceeding 6 million sets of automotive bumpers annually and has established a comprehensive supply chain for luxury and mainstream electric vehicle clients [16][12]. - The company has successfully entered the supply chains of major brands such as BMW, Beijing Benz, and Tesla, contributing to its revenue growth [5][88]. 2. Broad Market Space for Plastic Exterior Parts - The global market for automotive exterior parts is expected to reach 53.8 billion USD by 2025 and 89.5 billion USD by 2032, with a CAGR of 7.2% from 2025 to 2032 [50]. - Bumpers are critical safety components in vehicles, with a high unit value compared to other parts, making them essential for the company's revenue [55][59]. 3. Commitment to Major Client Strategy - The company has a high concentration of clients, with the top five clients accounting for approximately 59.56% of total sales in 2024, indicating a stable client structure [81][84]. - The company has secured significant orders from major clients, including Tesla, which has become a key contributor to its revenue [5][84]. 4. Lightweight Humanoid Robots as a New Market - The demand for lightweight designs in humanoid robots is increasing, as it enhances energy efficiency and operational flexibility [94][100]. - The company is leveraging its expertise in automotive plastic parts to expand into the humanoid robot sector, with a projected market size exceeding 10 billion yuan by 2030 [6][94]. 5. Profit Forecast - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 7.89 billion yuan in 2025, with a net profit of 467 million yuan, reflecting steady growth in its core automotive bumper business and new ventures [7][8].

证券研究报告 | 公司深度报告 2025 年 12 月 24 日 科创新源（300731.SZ） 高分子业务稳健，热管理上新台阶 中游制造/电力设备及新能源 公司深耕高分子材料及热管理领域多年，高管行业背景扎实。在高分子领域， 公司下游应用场景广泛，并掌握大客户资源，发展比较稳健。新能源热管理领 域的高频焊液冷板，已导入麒麟与神行电池，受益于其推广应用，上半年高频 焊液冷板实现了高增速发展。公司主要实施数据中心热管理的创源智热仍处于 发展初期，目前公司披露拟收购导热材料领先企业东莞兆科，其目前已批量供 货数据中心相关企业，收购完成后，有望与创源智热形成协同效应，充分受益 于液冷在数据中心渗透率提升的大趋势。 风险提示：新业务拓展不及预期、行业竞争加剧、下游需求不及预期等。 财务数据与估值 | 会计年度 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入(百万元) | 559 | 958 | 1229 | 2171 | 3583 | | 同比增长 | 7% | 72% | 28% | 77% ...

上 市 公 司 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： -50% 0% 50% 12-24 01-24 02-24 03-24 04-24 05-24 06-24 07-24 08-24 09-24 10-24 11-24 12-24 壹网壹创 沪深300指数 (收益率) 相关研究 公 司 研 究 / 公 司 深 度 报告原因：首次覆盖 增持（首次评级） | 市场数据： 2025 年 12 月 24 日 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 26.87 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 37.60/18.65 | | 市净率 | 2.2 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | 0.37 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 5,711 | | 上证指数/深证成指 3,940.95/13,486.42 | | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 12.36 | | 资产负债率% | 6.13 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 237/213 | | 流通 B 股/H 股 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook based on its growth potential and market position [4][7]. Core Insights - The company is a global leader in solder paste printing equipment, benefiting from the AI-driven demand for high-end products. The expansion into dispensing and packaging equipment is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][9]. - Profit forecasts for the company indicate a significant increase in net profit from 177 million RMB in 2025 to 309 million RMB in 2027, with corresponding growth rates of 151.20%, 24.59%, and 39.83% respectively [4][63]. - The current price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 54, 44, and 31 times, respectively, which are competitive compared to peer companies [4][65]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, established in 2005, has become the largest seller of solder paste printing equipment globally by 2020, successfully entering the supply chains of major clients like Huawei, VIVO, and Apple [6][13]. - The company has diversified its product offerings to include dispensing equipment, LED packaging equipment, and flexible automation equipment, enhancing its market presence [6][13]. Financial Performance - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 740 million RMB in 2023 to 1.747 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 24% [5][64]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 31% in 2023 to 43% in 2027, reflecting operational efficiencies and a shift towards higher-margin products [64]. Product Segmentation - Solder paste printing equipment is expected to see revenue growth of 46%, 30%, and 30% from 2025 to 2027, with gross margins increasing to 51% [63][64]. - The dispensing equipment segment is anticipated to grow by 25%, 20%, and 20% over the same period, with stable gross margins around 30% [63][64]. - The flexible automation equipment segment is projected to grow significantly, with expected revenue increases of 50%, 25%, and 25% from 2025 to 2027, and gross margins reaching 40% [63][64]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is positioned as a leader in the solder paste printing market, competing with brands like ASMPT and Panasonic, and is expected to benefit from the increasing demand for high-precision equipment driven by AI advancements [6][39]. - The company’s high-end solder paste printing products are gaining traction, with a notable increase in the proportion of III class products, which command higher prices and margins [39][63]. Future Growth Drivers - The expansion into new product lines, including dispensing and packaging equipment, is expected to enhance the company's growth ceiling, with significant market opportunities in the semiconductor and LED sectors [6][9][43]. - The successful development of flexible automation solutions for the optical communication industry is anticipated to further drive revenue growth, particularly as AI technologies evolve [61][62].

导语：开创新赛道，从来不轻松。 作者：市值风云 App：火花 纵横股份点评：专注工业无人机，但还在生死线上挣扎！ 提到无人机，绝大多数人脑海里蹦出的第一个名字就是大疆。在消费级无人机领 域，大疆是当之无愧的王者。 甚至在工业无人机领域，大疆也凭借多旋翼产品的成本优势占据了半壁江山。 但在大疆的统治版图之外，还有一个被称为"垂直起降固定翼"的细分赛道，规 模相当有限。这里还没有被大疆完全占据，所以跑出了一家标杆企业纵横股份 （688070.SH）。 先说好的。公司营收增长强劲。根据 2025 年三季报，公司前三季度实现营业收 入 3.2 亿元。同比增 57%。 这说明公司的产品确实卖出去了，市场需求是真实的。 不仅如此，公司整体毛利率在前三季度大幅攀升，从 42.2%增至 48.9%，态势 良好。受此影响，净亏损也有所收窄。 这一增长主要得益于低空经济被写入国家战略，各地政府和企业开始加大对无人 机基础设施的投入。纵横股份的 CW 系列无人机，尤其是油电混动 CW-100、 CW-40 和纯电 CW-15 系列，在应急、安防和测绘领域卖得不错。 以 CW-100 无人机为例，公司表示，它属于超长航时垂直起降油电 ...

Group 1 - The report gives the company an "Accumulate" rating for the first time [2][55] - The company is a national high-value medical device distributor, established in 2010, focusing on direct sales and distribution of medical devices, and providing centralized operation services for medical consumables (SPD) [5][11] - The SPD management model for medical devices has significant growth potential, with a current penetration rate of approximately 15.29% in public hospitals, indicating a vast market opportunity [5][47] Group 2 - The company has maintained stable revenue and net profit growth from 2020 to 2024, with revenue increasing from 8.542 billion to 17.923 billion yuan, and net profit rising from 160 million to 228 million yuan [24][26] - The medical device market in China is expanding steadily, with the market size growing from 370 billion yuan in 2016 to 1,032.8 billion yuan in 2023, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.79% [31][39] - The high-value medical consumables market in China has also shown steady growth, with a market size increase from 72.4 billion yuan in 2016 to 156.1 billion yuan in 2023, achieving a CAGR of 11.60% [39][40] Group 3 - The company leverages innovation to address industry challenges, focusing on technology, service, and management model improvements to enhance operational efficiency [48][49] - The company has developed a comprehensive SPD management system that integrates logistics information technology to optimize the management of medical consumables within hospitals [52] - The company aims to create a "national integrated medical device distribution hub," enhancing collaboration with major manufacturers and hospitals to streamline operations and improve service efficiency [53][54] Group 4 - The investment forecast estimates earnings per share of 0.66 yuan and 0.76 yuan for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with corresponding valuations of 48 times and 42 times [55][56] - The company is positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends of industry consolidation and increased efficiency in medical device distribution [44][45]

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨海光信息（688041.SH） [Table_Title] 光合组织 2025AI 创新大会，引领计算协同新纪 元 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 12 月 17 日-19 日，光合组织 2025 人工智能创新大会圆满召开。大会期间，超过 50 项光合生态人工智能创新成果集中发布，全方位展示了开放生态下，国产 AI 计算产业在核心部 件、智能终端、智算系统、基础软件、行业应用、安全可信等方面的创新结晶。 海光信息生态 合作全面发力，产业影响力持续扩大，其有望通过开放生态解决行业割裂痛点。大会首发中科 曙光 scaleX 万卡超集群等系列创新成果体现在超节点和集群等领域竞争力，从产业趋势维度， 海光信息有望成长为我国 AI 时代算力综合平台。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 余庚宗 SAC：S0490520030004 SAC：S0490516030002 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_sco ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨美埃科技（688376.SH） [Table_Title] 美埃科技跟踪：洁净室设备景气提升，国际龙头 客户认证获突破 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 美埃科技主营泛半导体领域的洁净室设备和耗材等。当前，全球晶圆制造资本开支向上，带动 洁净室设备需求旺盛；公司已经通过了半导体领域多个国际著名厂商的合格供应商认证，进入 其核心国际客户供应链，海外营收占比有望提升；同时为龙头锂电企业海外扩张提供配套解决 方案。继续看好公司未来的成长机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490520070003 SAC：S0490524080004 SAC：S0490525070006 SFC：BUV415 徐科 贾少波 李博文 盛意 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 公司已取得核心国际客户的认证突破。海外产品认证需半年以上的认证周期，公司在前期市场 开拓阶段着手获取海外认证体系，目前已获得 FM、UL、CE、AHAM 等 ...