业绩简评 公司于 5 月 22 日公布 FY2025 年报。全年实现营收 270.13 亿元， 同降 6.69%，归母净利润 12.86 亿元，同降 41.89%，公司 FY25 年 宣告派发股息 0.28 元，派息率约 135%，维持买入评级。 经营分析 消费疲软影响流水，精简渠道持续提效。FY25 公司主力品牌/其他 品牌同比下降 6.1%/9.9%至 233.11/35.05 亿元，主要受到终端消 费疲软，线下客流持续下降影响。分渠道来看，公司线下聚焦高效 大面积门店，加速淘汰低效门店，FY25 期末门店数为 5020 家，同 比下降 1124 家，平均门店面积同比增长 7.2%，期间单店收入同比 增长约 14%，公司举办多样化营销活动增强会员粘性，FY25 末会 员数量达 8600 万，同比增长 500 万，会员贡献店内销售额比例达 93.2%，其中复购会员消费占会员整体 70%。线上方面 FY25 公司包 括公域和私域在内的线上销售额同比录得双位数增长，公司聚焦 平台电商+内容电商+私域运营全面组合，充分挖掘线上渠道潜力， 对线下销售形成了较好补充。 毛利率短期承压，费用率预计持续优化。FY25 全 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The net profit forecast for the same period is 23.45 billion, 26.48 billion, and 30.27 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 12.2% to 14.3% [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company is projected to have operating revenues of 7,836 million yuan in 2023, increasing to 10,201 million yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14% in 2023 and 12% in 2025 [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to rise from 1,549 million yuan in 2023 to 2,345 million yuan in 2025, with a significant increase of 35% in 2024 [2] - Earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to grow from 0.65 yuan in 2023 to 0.98 yuan in 2025 [2] Market Position and Prospects - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is expected to grow significantly, with SSGJ707 showing promising clinical data and a strong partnership with Pfizer, which enhances the clinical development speed in the U.S. [6] - The company has a robust pipeline with four mid-to-late stage monoclonal antibodies, including IL17, which is expected to be commercialized in 2025, indicating a strong potential for revenue generation [6] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 28.5 in 2023 to 18.9 in 2025, indicating an improving valuation as earnings grow [2] - The price-to-book (P/B) ratio is expected to decline from 3.2 in 2023 to 2.4 in 2025, reflecting a more attractive valuation over time [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan [1][11]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, reflecting a 13 percentage point increase quarter-on-quarter [1][12]. - The AI cloud segment saw significant growth, with revenue reaching 6.7 billion yuan, a 42% increase year-on-year, driven by strong demand for generative AI and foundational model training [2][20]. - The Apollo Go autonomous driving service provided over 1.4 million rides in Q1 2025, a 75% increase year-on-year, expanding its coverage to 15 cities [21]. Financial Forecasts - The company is expected to achieve adjusted net profits of 24.1 billion yuan, 27 billion yuan, and 31.2 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [25]. - Revenue projections for the years 2025 to 2027 are 135.7 billion yuan, 143.6 billion yuan, and 152.3 billion yuan, with corresponding growth rates of 1.9%, 5.9%, and 6.0% [4][27].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7]. Core Views - On May 22, the company launched its self-developed 3nm chip "Xuanjie O1," along with several consumer electronic products including the Xiaomi 15S Pro, Pad 7 Ultra, and Civi5 Pro, as well as the Yu7 SUV, marking a significant milestone in brand premiumization and product matrix expansion [2][4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Product Launch and Innovation - The company has introduced the Xuanjie O1 chip, which utilizes second-generation 3nm technology, featuring a 10-core CPU and a 16-core GPU with a transistor scale of 19 billion. The chip's performance exceeds that of Apple's A18 Pro, with a benchmark score of over 3 million in AnTuTu [8]. - The Xiaomi 15S Pro smartphone, based on the Xiaomi 15 Pro design, is equipped with the Xuanjie O1 chip and starts at a price of 5499 RMB. The Pad 7 Ultra features a 14-inch OLED display and also uses the Xuanjie O1 chip, starting at 5699 RMB [8]. - The Yu7 SUV, the company's first SUV model, is positioned as a mid-to-large electric coupe SUV with a range of 835 km, which is the longest in its class. The vehicle includes advanced features such as a floating central control screen and a panoramic display system [8]. Market Position and Future Outlook - The company is recognized as one of the few manufacturers globally capable of designing 3nm mobile SoC chips, alongside Huawei. This positions the company favorably in the competitive landscape of smartphone and tablet manufacturing [8]. - The Yu7 SUV is expected to replicate the success of the SU7 model, contributing to increased average sales price and volume, with projections indicating a potential net profit turnaround in 2025 and single-vehicle profits exceeding 10,000 RMB [8]. - The company aims to achieve a 24% market share in the high-end segment by expanding its product offerings across various price ranges and energy types, with sales expected to exceed 2 million vehicles in the long term [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1][6] Core Insights - The company has reaffirmed its guidance for R&D investment of 30 billion RMB in 2025 and 200 billion RMB from 2026 to 2030, alongside the launch of strategic new products including the SUV YU7 and 3nm flagship SoC [6][7] - The YU7 SUV features advanced technology such as laser radar and NVIDIA Thor, positioning it as a luxury high-performance SUV with a leading range in its category [6][7] - The 3nm flagship SoC, known as玄戒 O1, is designed with a high transistor count and advanced architecture, enhancing the company's technological capabilities [6][7] - The company aims to strengthen its brand positioning through in-house chip development, which has been a long-term strategy since 2014 [6][7] - The high-end strategy is expected to translate into enhanced product strength, improved profit margins, and increased valuation [6][7] Financial Data Summary - Revenue projections for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: 270,970 million RMB in 2023, 365,906 million RMB in 2024, 469,359 million RMB in 2025, 572,035 million RMB in 2026, and 684,427 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of -3%, 35%, 28%, 22%, and 20% respectively [2][7] - Net profit estimates for the same period are: 19,274 million RMB in 2023, 27,314 million RMB in 2024, 37,624 million RMB in 2025, 45,739 million RMB in 2026, and 55,769 million RMB in 2027, with growth rates of 127%, 42%, 38%, 22%, and 22% respectively [2][7] - The projected earnings per share (EPS) are 0.76 RMB in 2023, 1.07 RMB in 2024, 1.48 RMB in 2025, 1.79 RMB in 2026, and 2.19 RMB in 2027 [2][7] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is expected to decrease from 66 in 2023 to 23 in 2027, indicating a potential increase in valuation [2][7]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][25]. Core Insights - The company's total revenue for Q1 2025 was 32.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3%. The adjusted net profit attributable to shareholders was 6.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 7% year-on-year, with an adjusted net profit margin of 20% [1][9]. - The core revenue from Baidu reached 25.5 billion yuan, up 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue was 7.2 billion yuan, down 9% year-on-year. The online marketing revenue decreased by 6% to 16 billion yuan, but non-online marketing revenue grew by 40%, driven by the intelligent cloud business [1][11][12]. - The advertising business continues to face pressure, with a 6% decline in core advertising revenue. However, 35% of search results now include AI-generated content, indicating a shift towards AI integration [12][20]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Baidu's total revenue was 32.5 billion yuan, with adjusted net profit at 6.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 7% decline year-on-year. The adjusted net profit margin was 20% [1][9]. - The core business generated an adjusted net profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 4% year-on-year, with a profit margin of 25% [1][9]. Business Segments - The core business revenue increased by 7% year-on-year, while iQIYI's revenue decreased by 9%. Online marketing revenue fell by 6%, but non-online marketing revenue surged by 40%, primarily due to the growth in intelligent cloud services [11][12]. - The intelligent cloud revenue reached 6.7 billion yuan, marking a 42% year-on-year increase, driven by the rising demand for generative AI and foundational model training [20][21]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that AI technology will significantly boost both search advertising and intelligent cloud business. The adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 are 24.1 billion, 27 billion, and 31.2 billion yuan, respectively [25][27].

上 市 公 司 商业贸易 2025 年 05 月 23 日 滔搏 (06110) ——业绩符合预期，派发特别股息提升股东回报 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 05 月 22 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 3.09 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8557.64 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 5.82/2.11 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 191.62 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 6,201.22 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0886 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -58% -8% 42% HSCEI 滔搏 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 王立平 A0230511040052 wanglp@swsresearch.com 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 研究支持 刘佩 A0230523070002 liupei@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 投资要点： 财务数据及盈利预测 | 货币单位：人民 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][9] Core Views - The company has signed a licensing agreement with Pfizer for the PD1×VEGF dual antibody SSGJ707, receiving an upfront payment of $1.25 billion, which is the largest for a Chinese innovative drug license-out, along with potential milestone payments of $4.8 billion and double-digit royalties on net sales [4][6] - The company is expected to achieve revenue growth of 12% to 14% from 2025 to 2027, with projected revenues of 102.01 billion, 114.94 billion, and 131.53 billion yuan respectively [6] - The company is anticipated to see a significant acceleration in domestic revenue due to multiple late-stage clinical assets, including IL17 monoclonal antibody expected to commercialize in 2025 [6] Summary by Sections Financial Forecasts - Projected operating revenue (in million yuan): 7,836 (2023A), 9,108 (2024A), 10,201 (2025E), 11,494 (2026E), 13,153 (2027E) with growth rates of 14%, 16%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Expected net profit attributable to shareholders (in million yuan): 1,549 (2023A), 2,090 (2024A), 2,345 (2025E), 2,648 (2026E), 3,027 (2027E) with growth rates of -19%, 35%, 12%, 13%, and 14% respectively [2] - Earnings per share (in yuan): 0.65 (2023A), 0.87 (2024A), 0.98 (2025E), 1.10 (2026E), 1.26 (2027E) [2] Market Position and Development - The PD1×VEGF dual antibody market is validated, with significant clinical results from competitors enhancing the outlook for SSGJ707 [6] - The company’s collaboration with Pfizer is expected to accelerate clinical development in the U.S. due to Pfizer's robust clinical and commercialization capabilities [6] Valuation Metrics - Projected P/E ratios: 28.5 (2023A), 21.2 (2024A), 18.9 (2025E), 16.7 (2026E), 14.6 (2027E) [2] - Projected P/B ratios: 3.2 (2023A), 2.9 (2024A), 2.4 (2025E), 2.0 (2026E), 1.7 (2027E) [2]

2025 年 5 月 23 日 公司研究 聚焦大麦+IP 衍生品，阿里鱼增速亮眼 ——阿里影业（1060.HK）FY25 业绩点评 要点 事件：公司 FY25 实现营收 67.02 亿元人民币（yoy+33%），实现毛利润 24.78 亿元（yoy+23%），对应毛利率 37.0%，同比下降 3.1pct；实现经调整 EBITA 为 8.09 亿元，同比增长 61%；实现归母净利润 3.64 亿元，同比增长 28%。 FY25 大麦增长保持稳健，IP 衍生品业务收入超市场预期：1）电影科技与投资 制作宣发平台收入 27.1 亿元（yoy-9.6%），主要原因系投资部分电影票房不及 预期。a）电影票务方面，淘票票会员体系打通电影与演出消费，用户黏性高， 降幅低于行业；云智保持国内出票领先，并拓展中国香港及东南亚市场。b）电 影投资制作及宣发方面，重点储备影片数量约 40 部，其中投资待映项目数量约 20 部，自主研发与合制项目数量约 20 部。c）科技业务方面，公司加大 AI、数 字人及虚拟拍摄投入，已建成 4 个虚拟影棚，应用于多部影视项目降低成本；推 出 5 个新数字人；灯塔 AI 接入大模型，提升宣发及票 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The company's Q1 2025 performance exceeded expectations, with total revenue of 13.8 billion (up 16% year-on-year), operating profit of 3.6 billion (margin of 26%), and adjusted net profit of 4.2 billion (up 3% year-on-year) [4][7] - The international business continues to show strong growth, driven by favorable visa-free policies, with overseas OTA platform bookings up 60% year-on-year and inbound tourism bookings more than doubling [4][5] - The company expects revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 61.4 billion, 68.5 billion, and 76.5 billion respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 15%, 12%, and 12% [7] Financial Performance Summary - Q1 2025 revenue breakdown: accommodation booking revenue of 5.5 billion (up 23% year-on-year), transportation ticketing revenue of 5.4 billion (up 8% year-on-year), and other business revenue of 1.4 billion (up 33% year-on-year) [4] - The company anticipates adjusted net profits of 18.7 billion, 21.8 billion, and 24.7 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 3%, 16%, and 14% [7][10] - The total market capitalization is 34.79 billion HKD [9]