农历新年临近，返乡的人多了，村里也变得热闹了。在安徽省马鞍山市当涂县太白镇长江村，四年前从安徽长江钢铁股份有限公司退休的周圣 亮，在村里当起了网格员。沿河埂望去，一些返乡人在河边散步休闲，他不时叮嘱"注意安全"。"如今退休有个事做，村庄的环境也好了，老年生 活过得有滋有味。"周圣亮说。 2019年，隶属于马钢的长江钢铁被宝武集团并购。2020年，根据宝武集团长江流域环境保护总体规划，这家位于村里的钢铁企业也制定了一份 《安徽长江钢铁股份有限公司长江生态保护环境治理规划》，明确在节能低碳、水资源管理、固废利用与处置、废气超低排放等方面进行升级改 造。 走进长江钢铁，记者看到，相较于雨水收集池，工业废水收集池里明显浑浊。长江钢铁能源环保部环保管理室负责人杨忠林说，以前一下暴雨， 厂区污水会和雨水一起向厂区外排放，如今他们将污水和初期雨水集中收集，经气浮到磁混凝高密度池再经过过滤，处理达标后返回至生产用水 系统，"我们每天污水处置量达1.2万吨，这些污水成了节约下来的生产资源，不仅外排污染风险去除了，生产一吨钢的新水消耗比以前下降了约 20%。" 长江村虽然距离长江干流直线距离约5公里，但村名由来并非因为靠近长江。 ...

2026 年 02 月 09 日 信任命 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 quozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 quozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不 金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示: 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 波段人分出品 若研究报 申万宏源研究微信服务号 o 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万 指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点，2) 分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 17.38%，铝下跌 6.24%，能源金属下跌 3.59%，小金属下跌 3.20%，铜下跌 9. ...

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with the Shanghai-Shenzhen 300 index down by 1.33% to 4643.60 [7][70] - Sub-sectors such as special steel, long products, and plate steel saw declines of 2.10%, 1.88%, and 3.84% respectively [8][71] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sampled steel companies was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was 48.1%, down by 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [14][66] - The production of five major steel products totaled 720.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.55 million tons week-on-week [14][66] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 760.7 million tons, down by 41.08 million tons week-on-week, a decline of 5.12% [20][82] - The transaction volume of construction steel by mainstream traders was 3.5 million tons, down by 3.25 million tons week-on-week, a significant drop of 48.24% [20][83] Inventory Situation - Social inventory of five major steel products reached 940.4 million tons, an increase of 49.68 million tons week-on-week, up by 5.58% [25][88] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 397.3 million tons, an increase of 9.56 million tons week-on-week, up by 2.47% [25][88] Price & Profit Situation - The comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3414.2 yuan/ton, down by 13.31 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.39% [66][94] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6582.0 yuan/ton, down by 2.28 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 0.03% [66][94] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 27.45% [66][35] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, up by 5.00% [66][35] Raw Material Situation - The spot price index for Australian iron ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, down by 29.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, a decrease of 3.66% [67][50] - The price of primary metallurgical coke was 1770 yuan/ton, unchanged week-on-week [67][50] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies showing upward elasticity in performance [69] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [69]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a stable but weakened investment rating for the Chinese steel industry, indicating a neutral overall credit impact despite ongoing challenges [4][6]. Core Insights - The Chinese steel industry is expected to stabilize at the bottom and show signs of fragile recovery in 2026, driven by structural upgrades and cost relief, while facing supply-demand contradictions and price pressures [4][6]. - The overall credit quality of the industry is projected to weaken in the next 12 to 18 months but will remain above a "negative" status level [4][6]. - The competitive landscape of the steel industry has entered a new phase focused on quality improvement and efficiency, with a notable recovery in operational performance since 2025 [6][22]. Industry Fundamentals Analysis - The steel industry is experiencing a mix of factors, including persistent overcapacity, demand pressure, and price suppression, leading to a stabilization at the bottom and a fragile recovery [7][8]. - The real estate sector continues to face challenges, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics, but policy support is expected to mitigate negative impacts on the steel industry [8][15]. - Infrastructure investment is projected to stabilize and support steel demand, with government measures aimed at increasing investment in key areas [8][15]. Industry Credit Analysis - The competitive landscape has shifted towards quality enhancement, with major players like China Baowu Steel Group and Ansteel Group leading consolidation efforts [34][35]. - The industry is characterized by a high level of financial leverage and weak debt repayment indicators, but no significant credit adjustments have been observed [34][39]. - The credit risk landscape is expected to remain controllable, although individual companies with persistent losses and weak financial management may face heightened credit risk exposure [34][39]. Investment Spending Analysis - The steel industry has entered a phase of investment contraction and structural optimization, with a focus on green and low-emission projects [31][32]. - Investment in the industry is expected to remain constrained due to ongoing financial pressures and the need for compliance with environmental regulations [31][32]. - The transition towards high-end product development and technological upgrades is anticipated to dominate capital expenditures in the coming years [31][32].

行 业 及 产 业 有色金属 2026 年 02 月 09 日 相关研究 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 价格波动较大，向好趋势不改 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20260202-20260206 本期投资提示： 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 - ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 iFind，环比上周 1）上证指数下跌 1.27%，深证成指下跌 2.11%，沪深 300 下跌 1.33%，有色金属（申 万）指数下跌 8.51%，跑输沪深 300 指数 7.18 个百分点。2）分子板块看，环比上周，贵金属下跌 ...

新世纪评级 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 钢铁行业 （弱）稳定 钢铁行业 2025 年信用回顾与 2026 年展望 工商企业评级部 吴晓丽 包璇 摘要 2025 年以来，钢铁行业竞争格局总体稳定，大规模产能置换已近尾声， 优质钢企主要通过兼并重组和购买产能指标扩大规模，炼钢产能总体平 稳，轧钢产能则随着先进产线投产有所扩充。在行业限产、非建筑用钢需 求回暖、铁矿石和焦煤价格下行缓解成本压力基础上，期内行业效益有所 改善。但是，行业深层供需矛盾仍未解决，下游有效需求依然不足，钢材 供给量仍过大，供给过剩问题依然突出。 2025 年，钢铁行业政策重点仍集中于绿色低碳和产能置换方面，其中 3 月发布的《全国碳排放权交易市场覆盖钢铁、水泥、铝冶炼行业工作方 案》，标志着钢铁行业正式纳入全国碳交易市场，行业低碳转型进入强制 性约束阶段；10 月发布的《钢铁行业产能置换实施办法（征求意见稿）》 公开征求意见，在减量置换力度、重点区域产能限制、限期非同一企业产 能置换等提出更加严格要求，未来将对钢铁行业供给端产生一定影响。 样本钢企多为行业内大型企业，产能合计占到全国总产能的半数，市场地 位显著；部分 ...

西芒杜铁矿位于几内亚东南部，已探明储量超44亿吨，平均全铁品位TFe65%以上，是全球储量最大、品质最高的未开发铁矿之一。 中国资本持有西芒杜铁矿权益资源量超50%。[1]根据地理位置，西芒杜铁矿被划分为南段（3号、4号）和北段（1号、2号），并分别由不同主体主导开 发。根据力拓集团[2]以及SimFer[3]官方网站信息，西芒杜铁矿南段由SimFer持有，几内亚政府保留SimFer 15%的干股，其余85%的股权穿透后由力拓集 团持有53%，中铝集团牵头组建的央企联合体持有47%。西芒杜铁矿北段由赢联盟西芒杜公司（简称"WCS"或"赢联盟"）持有，WSC由韦立国际集团和魏 桥铝业（隶属于中国宏桥集团）等组成的联合体持股51%，中国宝武持股49%。此外，西芒杜铁矿项目目前已建成逾600公里的跨几内亚铁路，并配套驳 船码头与中转船港口设施，该基础设施将支持SimFer和WCS分别从其位于几内亚东南部的西芒杜矿区开采并出口铁矿石。 图片来源：力拓官网 原标题：杨贵生等：论中国企业海外权益矿投资与国内勘查开发的协同关系——以西芒杜铁矿投产为切入点 摘要 2025年，几内亚西芒杜铁矿正式进入商业化投产阶段，标志着中国 ...

2025年四季度末，光模块龙头中际旭创以1.28亿股持股总量、782.32亿元持股市值，首次超越宁德时代登顶主动权益基金第一大重仓股，1100多只持仓基金的"抱 团"态势一度成为市场焦点。但登顶仅月余，该股便开启回调模式，截至2月6日，年内累计下跌超10%，单日最大跌幅达8.94%，多只重仓基金净值同步回撤超 5%，再度引发市场对"基金第一重仓股魔咒"热议。 要客观研判"基金第一重仓股魔咒"这一市场现象，需依托长期、大样本的实证数据。基于Wind平台2003年至2025年共92个报告期的统计显示，在成为第一重仓股 后，39只登顶标的在后续3个月跑输沪深300指数，占92个报告期的42.39%；6个月、12个月跑输比例分别为45.65%、46.74%。这一量化结果，为理性分析该现象的 统计规律提供了客观依据。 | | | | 部分主动权益基金第一大重仓股登顶后的市场表现一览 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主动权益基金第一大 重仓股名称 | | 报告期归母净利 润同比增长率 | 报告期后3个月相对于沪深 300指数的涨幅(%) | 报告期后6个月相对于 ...

Market Performance - The steel sector declined by 3.02% this week, underperforming the broader market, with sub-sectors such as special steel down 2.10%, long products down 1.88%, and flat products down 3.84% [2][5] - Iron ore and steel consumables sectors also saw declines of 1.74% and 3.02% respectively, while the trade circulation sector fell by 4.006% [2][5] Supply Situation - As of February 6, the capacity utilization rate of blast furnaces in sample steel enterprises was 85.7%, an increase of 0.22 percentage points week-on-week [2] - Electric furnace capacity utilization was at 48.1%, a decrease of 7.59 percentage points week-on-week [2] - The production of five major steel products was 7.208 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Daily average pig iron production was 2.2858 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons week-on-week and 1,400 tons year-on-year [5] Demand Situation - The consumption of five major steel products was 7.607 million tons, a week-on-week decrease of 410,800 tons, or 5.12% [2] - Mainstream traders' sales volume of construction steel was 35,000 tons, down 32,500 tons week-on-week, representing a 48.24% decline [2] Inventory Situation - As of February 6, social inventory of five major steel products was 9.404 million tons, an increase of 496,800 tons week-on-week, or 5.58%, but down 18.04% year-on-year [3][5] - Factory inventory of five major steel products was 3.973 million tons, an increase of 95,600 tons week-on-week, or 2.47%, and down 24.13% year-on-year [3][5] Steel Prices & Profits - As of February 6, the comprehensive index for ordinary steel was 3,414.2 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 13.31 yuan/ton, or 0.39%, and down 5.51% year-on-year [3] - The comprehensive index for special steel was 6,582.0 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 2.28 yuan/ton, or 0.03%, and down 2.88% year-on-year [3] - The profit for rebar from blast furnaces was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 14.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 27.45% [3] - The profit for construction steel from electric furnaces was -76 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.0 yuan/ton week-on-week, or 5.00% [3] Raw Material Situation - As of February 6, the spot price index for Australian powder ore (62% Fe) at Rizhao Port was 764 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 29.0 yuan/ton, or 3.66% [4] - The price for main coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,700 yuan/ton, a week-on-week decrease of 80.0 yuan/ton [4] - The average available days of iron ore for sample steel enterprises was 31.29 days, an increase of 2.6 days week-on-week [4] Investment Recommendations - The steel sector is expected to have strong "anti-involution" characteristics and significant profit recovery potential, with high-quality steel companies likely to see performance improvements [6][7] - Key companies to focus on include regional leaders with advanced equipment and environmental standards, as well as those benefiting from the new energy cycle [7]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The manganese - silicon market is mainly characterized by oscillatory movements. The cost of manganese ore remains high, offering strong cost support for silicon - manganese alloys. In 2026, there is a high possibility of an increase in the cost of alloys due to local electricity prices in Inner Mongolia and southern regions. Currently, the supply of silicon - manganese is still under pressure, and the procurement situation of HeSteel Group in February 2026 remains to be verified. It is expected that the price of manganese - silicon will oscillate this week, with the SM2605 contract ranging from 5760 to 5940 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Manganese - Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: Data on the monthly capacity of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises is presented, but no analysis is provided [7]. - **Annual Output**: Annual output data of manganese - silicon in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, and other regions, as well as China's total annual output, are shown [9]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率**: Weekly and monthly output data of Chinese manganese - silicon, along with the weekly开工率 of Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, are presented [12]. - **Regional Output**: Monthly output data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and daily average output data of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi are provided [13][14]. Manganese - Silicon Demand - **Steel Tendering Purchase Price**: Monthly purchase prices of manganese - silicon (6517) by Baosteel Co., Ltd., Baowu E'gang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron and Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. are shown [17]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability**: Weekly data on the daily average hot metal output of 247 Chinese steel enterprises and their weekly profitability are presented [19]. Manganese - Silicon Import and Export - Monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon are provided [21]. Manganese - Silicon Inventory - Weekly inventory data of 63 sample Chinese manganese - silicon enterprises, monthly average available days of Chinese manganese - silicon inventory, and monthly average available days of manganese - silicon inventory in the northern region and East China are presented [23]. Manganese - Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: Monthly import volume data of manganese ore in different trade methods, from Gabon, southern Africa, and Australia to China are shown [25]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: Weekly port inventory data of Chinese manganese ore, including Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port, and weekly average available days of Chinese manganese ore inventory are presented [27]. - **High - Grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: Weekly port inventory data of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian high - grade manganese ores in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port are provided [29]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: Daily price data of South African semi - carbonate manganese lumps (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lumps (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port are shown [30]. - **Regional Cost**: Daily cost data of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi are presented [31]. Manganese - Silicon Profit - Daily profit data of manganese - silicon in the northern region, southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are presented [33].