证券研究报告·行业跟踪周报·有色金属 有色金属行业跟踪周报 联储 7 月降息预期被修正，工业金属价格维 持震荡走势 增持（维持） [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 回顾本周行情（6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日），有色板块本周上涨 1.02%，在全部一级行 业中排名中等。二级行业方面，周内申万有色金属类二级行业中能源金属板块上涨 1.00%，工业金属板块上涨 1.46%，小金属板块下跌 0.18%，金属新材料板块上涨 0.41%，贵金属板块上涨 0.96%。工业金属方面，美联储 7 月降息预期被修正，美 元及美债利率短期上行，此外铜铝等工业金属下游开工率进一步下滑，本周工业金 属价格维持震荡走势。贵金属方面，本周随着美国国会两院通过了总统特朗普提出 的大规模减税及支出法案，美国联邦财政赤字率水平有望进一步提升，叠加 7 月 9 日的贸易关税暂停最后期限越来越近，不确定性正在重回机构视野，黄金做多美国 通胀的时间或已临近。 ◼ 周观点： 铜：需求下行风险加剧，铜价 Back 结构价差缩小预计短期冲高动能减弱降。截至 7 月 4 日，伦铜报收 9,852 美元/吨，周环比下跌 ...

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperforming the market (maintained rating) [5] Core Views - The basic metals market is primarily driven by macro pricing, with copper and aluminum experiencing high-level fluctuations. Copper prices initially rose due to increased expectations of interest rate cuts but later fell due to better-than-expected U.S. non-farm payroll data and uncertainties in the foreign trade environment [1][12] - Aluminum prices increased, supported by positive manufacturing PMI data and optimistic automotive sales, despite a reduction in production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious metals saw mixed performance, with gold prices declining slightly while silver prices increased, influenced by geopolitical factors and changing market risk preferences [2][25] Summary by Sections Basic Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices fluctuated at high levels, with a current price of 79,830 CNY/ton. Domestic copper inventory increased slightly, indicating a complex supply-demand dynamic [1][12] - Aluminum: Prices rose to 20,555 CNY/ton, driven by improved manufacturing data and rising energy prices. The theoretical demand for electrolytic aluminum decreased due to reduced production of aluminum rods and plates [1][20] - Precious Metals: Gold averaged 766.71 CNY/gram, down 1.00% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,738 CNY/kg, up 0.29% [2][25] Small Metals - Tungsten: Prices showed resilience with black tungsten concentrate averaging 173,000 CNY/ton, reflecting limited supply growth [3][55] - Rare Earths: Prices for light rare earths increased, indicating a recovery in the fundamentals of the sector, with expectations for significant improvements in the third quarter [3][3] Market Predictions - The report anticipates that copper prices will range between 79,500 and 81,000 CNY/ton in the coming week, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate between 20,300 and 21,000 CNY/ton [13][21] - For precious metals, gold is projected to trade between 750 and 800 CNY/gram, and silver between 8,200 and 9,200 CNY/kg [26][26]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that the "anti-involution" policy is guiding a short-term strength in energy metals, while gold is under pressure due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and a stronger dollar [1]. - The report suggests that despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact due to central bank purchases and fiscal concerns [1]. - Industrial metals are experiencing mixed trends, with copper facing supply disruptions and aluminum entering a potential inventory accumulation phase [1]. Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metals sector showed mixed performance this week, with varying price movements across different metals [10]. - The report notes that the overall non-ferrous metals index increased by 1.0%, with energy metals up by 1.0% and industrial metals up by 1.5% [16]. Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Global copper inventory increased slightly to 518,000 tons, with supply disruptions from MMG and Hudbay Minerals affecting logistics [1]. The copper price has seen fluctuations due to macroeconomic factors and demand-side pressures [1]. - **Aluminum**: The report indicates a potential inventory accumulation cycle, with production recovering in some regions while demand remains subdued [1]. Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The report notes a continued strength in lithium prices, driven by supply constraints and robust demand from electric vehicle sales [1]. The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate rose to 64,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.5% increase [26]. - **Metal Silicon**: The report discusses a short-term upward trend in silicon prices due to production cuts and recovery expectations in polysilicon plants [1]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks for investment, including Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Luoyang Molybdenum, all rated as "Buy" [5]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced an asset acquisition of the RG gold mine project, with a valuation of 1.2 billion yuan [34]. - Ganfeng Lithium completed the acquisition of Mali Lithium, enhancing its lithium resource integration strategy [34]. Price and Inventory Changes - The report provides detailed price movements for various metals, indicating that gold prices increased by 4.2% over the week, while copper prices saw a slight decline [21][23]. Market Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing supply-demand dynamics in the non-ferrous metals market, with particular attention to the impact of macroeconomic indicators on metal prices [1].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4][106]. Core Views - The report highlights that copper prices are experiencing fluctuations due to the interplay of the 232 investigation and interest rate cut expectations, with recent price changes showing a mixed trend [5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of low inventory levels in supporting copper prices, while also noting the potential impact of the 232 copper import investigation and upcoming interest rate decisions by the Federal Reserve [5]. - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Jincheng Mining, and Western Mining for investment opportunities [5]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. employment data, which may influence market conditions [9]. - The non-ferrous metals sector's performance is analyzed, with the sector underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index [11]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Recent price movements show LME copper up by 0.25%, while SHFE copper is down by 0.24% [25]. - Inventory levels for copper have increased, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [25]. 2.2 Aluminum - LME aluminum prices increased by 0.41%, with inventory levels also rising [35]. - The report notes a decrease in aluminum smelting profits, attributed to rising costs [35]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a slight increase, while zinc prices have decreased [48]. - Inventory levels for both metals are discussed, highlighting market supply conditions [48]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have decreased slightly, while nickel prices have shown an upward trend [62]. - The report discusses profitability metrics for nickel producers in both domestic and international markets [62]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have shown a slight rebound, with specific price changes noted for lithium carbonate and lithium spodumene [74]. - The report indicates that supply-side adjustments are anticipated, which may affect future pricing [74]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices have increased domestically due to export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may create supply constraints [86]. - The report highlights the profitability of domestic cobalt refining operations [86].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the non-ferrous and steel industry [6]. Core Viewpoints - The mid-term investment logic for the steel industry is centered around the concept of "anti-involution," which is expected to improve profitability [10][15]. - Despite some investors questioning the sustainability of the "anti-involution" theme, the report argues that it is a key driver for profit improvement in the steel sector [10][15]. - The report anticipates a shift in the iron ore supply side dynamics, which will further reinforce the mid-term investment logic of "anti-involution" in the steel industry [10][15][16]. Summary by Sections Investment Suggestions and Targets - The report highlights the importance of focusing on stable profit and high dividend-paying segments within the electrolytic aluminum sector [9]. - It suggests monitoring companies with high gross profit elasticity per ton of steel, such as Sansteel Minmetals, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel [10]. Steel Industry Analysis - The report indicates that steel demand is better than expected, with a notable increase in rebar consumption [17]. - Total steel inventory is expected to decline further due to the "anti-involution" measures [24]. - Profit margins for long and short process rebar steel are projected to continue expanding [28]. - Steel prices are likely to rise further, with the rebar price showing a significant increase [34]. New Energy Metals - The report notes a substantial year-on-year increase in lithium production, indicating a positive outlook for lithium prices [38]. - The demand for new energy vehicles remains strong, with significant growth in production and sales [42]. Industrial Metals - The report observes a decrease in electrolytic aluminum inventory, suggesting potential price increases [56]. - The global refined copper production is slightly better than expected, with a year-on-year increase [59]. Other Notable Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms in the steel industry, particularly in reducing overcapacity and improving efficiency [16]. - It highlights the role of state-owned enterprises in leading the charge against involutionary competition within the steel sector [16].

Industry Overview - Aluminum extrusion is a significant processing method that applies strong pressure to aluminum billets, resulting in the desired cross-sectional shapes and mechanical properties [1][5] - The aluminum extrusion industry is crucial for various sectors, including automotive, photovoltaic, transportation, and construction, with increasing importance in the national economy [5][9] - China's aluminum extrusion output is expected to remain above 21 million tons from 2020 to 2024, with a projected output of 23.3 million tons in 2024, a decrease of 100,000 tons from 2023 due to reduced demand from the real estate market [5][9] Market Segmentation - In 2024, industrial aluminum profiles and building aluminum profiles will account for 54.3% and 45.7% of the market, respectively [9] - The construction sector remains the largest application area for aluminum profiles, with a projected output of 9.85 million tons in 2024, down 19.9% year-on-year [9][19] - Emerging sectors such as photovoltaics, rail transportation, and new energy vehicles are driving strong demand for aluminum profiles, with photovoltaic profiles accounting for 18.3% and new energy vehicle profiles for 6.5% of the total output [9][23] Industry Chain - The aluminum extrusion industry chain consists of upstream (bauxite - alumina - electrolytic aluminum), midstream (aluminum extrusion production), and downstream (application fields such as construction, automotive, photovoltaics, and electronics) [13] - China's bauxite production is projected to be around 64.2 million tons in 2024, a decline of 2% year-on-year, while imports are expected to reach 158.77 million tons, a historical high [15] Downstream Applications - The real estate sector is a major application area for aluminum profiles, but it is currently facing a downturn, with significant declines in investment and construction metrics [19] - The new energy vehicle sector has seen a substantial increase in aluminum usage, with the average aluminum content per vehicle rising to 200-300 kg, and some high-end models exceeding 500 kg [21] - In the photovoltaic sector, aluminum profiles are primarily used for solar module frames, with rapid growth in demand driven by the expansion of solar power installations [23] Industry Trends - The aluminum processing industry is expected to expand its product variety and application areas, with increasing demand for high-end aluminum materials and aluminum-based new materials in emerging fields [25] - Future developments will focus on high-performance, lightweight, and multifunctional aluminum extrusion materials, with a shift towards intelligent and automated production processes [25]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the performance and holdings of the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed A Fund, which has shown varying returns over different time frames [1] - As of July 4, 2025, the fund's latest net value is 3.4950 yuan, reflecting a decrease of 0.94% [1] - The fund's one-month return is 5.21%, ranking 146 out of 871 in its category, while its six-month return is 12.34%, ranking 214 out of 862 [1] - Year-to-date, the fund has achieved a return of 10.29%, ranking 165 out of 860 [1] Group 2 - The top ten stock holdings of the fund account for a total of 67.75%, with the largest holding being Sailun Tire at 9.57% [1] - Other significant holdings include Haohua Technology (8.69%), Yun Aluminum (8.06%), and China Aluminum (8.02%) [1] - The fund was established on September 21, 2017, and as of March 31, 2025, it has a total scale of 1.155 billion yuan [1] Group 3 - The fund manager, Han Chuang, has a master's degree in economics and has been with Dachen Fund Management since June 2015 [2] - Han has held various positions, including being a member of the stock investment decision committee and managing multiple funds since 2019 [2] - He has been the fund manager for the Dachen State-Owned Enterprise Reform Flexible Allocation Mixed Fund since January 13, 2021 [2]

Group 1 - Copper prices have surged unexpectedly, driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts and improving demand sentiment, alongside a declining US dollar index which benefits global commodities, particularly copper and aluminum [1] - The price difference between Comex copper and LME has widened to $1,400, indicating market speculation around the potential removal of Section 232 tariffs [1] - Global copper inventory levels are low, with LME copper stocks decreasing from 270,000 tons at the beginning of the year to 90,000 tons currently, leading to a significant increase in LME copper's backwardation to $320, indicating tightness in the spot market [1] Group 2 - In the copper sector, companies had previously priced in copper prices of $9,000 to $9,500, and the recent price surge is expected to lead to earnings upgrades for these companies [2] - Recommended copper stocks with alpha attributes include Jincheng Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, Zijin Mining, China Nonferrous Mining, and Minmetals Resources, which are expected to benefit from improved performance and high profit elasticity [2] - In the aluminum sector, while some stocks like China Hongqiao and Zhongfu have shown strong performance, concerns about demand from the photovoltaic sector have led to weaker performance in other aluminum stocks, despite strong underlying demand [2]

Group 1: Core Insights - The strategic value of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) is being redefined amid a sluggish global economic recovery and deep domestic economic adjustments [1] - Public funds are rapidly increasing their investment in SOEs, with the total scale of SOE-related funds exceeding 300 billion yuan in 2023 [1] - The investment logic is shifting from single low valuation to a dual drive of high dividends and hard technology [1] Group 2: Policy and Industry Trends - The dual forces of policy catalysis and industrial upgrading are reshaping the valuation system of SOEs, with a projected asset scale of central enterprises exceeding 90 trillion yuan in 2024, a 5.9% year-on-year increase [2] - Strategic emerging industry investments reached 2.7 trillion yuan in 2024, marking a 21.8% increase and surpassing 40% of total investments for the first time [2] - New index tools like the CSI Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven Index and the CSI National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index have emerged to cover core assets in technology innovation and green transformation [2][4] Group 3: Fund Performance and Strategy - The CSI Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven Index has a 12-month dividend yield of 3.59%, outperforming several major indices [3] - The CSI National New Central Enterprise Modern Energy Index has shown superior performance and risk-return ratios compared to major broad-based indices since its inception [4] - The BoShi Fund's Central Enterprise Innovation-Driven ETF has achieved net value growth rates of 4.06%, 19.89%, and 66.24% over the past year, three years, and five years, respectively, all exceeding benchmark returns [5] Group 4: Investment Philosophy and AI Integration - BoShi Fund emphasizes a "strategic account prioritizing financial account" investment philosophy, recognizing the potential for value re-evaluation of traditional resource factors [8] - The company has initiated AI technology exploration since 2018, establishing an AI laboratory in 2023 to enhance its investment research capabilities [9] - AI-driven investment research is expected to create differentiated alpha factors and improve investment decision-making accuracy [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights a moderate recovery in the Chinese economy, with consumption and investment as the main driving forces [8][11][12] - The A-share market is experiencing slight fluctuations, with various sectors showing mixed performance, particularly in consumer electronics, banking, and power industries [9][10][11] - The report suggests a balanced investment strategy, focusing on growth stocks with reasonable valuations and strong mid-year performance expectations [8][11][12] Domestic Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,461.15, with a slight increase of 0.18%, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.17% to 10,534.58 [3] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are 14.19 and 38.11, respectively, indicating a suitable environment for medium to long-term investments [8][10] International Market Performance - Major international indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, experienced declines of 0.67% and 0.45%, respectively, while the Nikkei and Hang Seng indices showed slight increases [4] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector saw a record high in new installations in May, with a total of 92.92 GW added, marking a year-on-year growth of 388.03% [15][16] - The report indicates a significant increase in the retail sales of new energy vehicles, which reached 1.071 million units in June, reflecting a 25% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The report notes that the semiconductor industry continues to grow, with global sales reaching $56.96 billion in April, a 22.7% increase year-on-year [19] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors such as consumer electronics, batteries, and telecommunications for short-term investment opportunities [8][11] - In the photovoltaic industry, attention is drawn to leading companies in polysilicon and solar glass production, as well as advancements in new technologies like perovskite solar cells [15][16] - The report suggests monitoring the gaming and cultural consumption sectors, especially with the upcoming summer box office season [34][36]