Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, highlighting strong performance in precious and industrial metals [5][7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the recent surge in gold prices, reaching new highs, and suggests focusing on strategic minor metal investment opportunities due to geopolitical tensions and supply chain dynamics [5][23]. - The non-ferrous metals index increased by 2.43% over the past two weeks, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 1.46 percentage points [2][13]. Summary by Sections Market Review (April 14 - April 25, 2025) - The non-ferrous metals industry index rose by 2.43%, ranking 11th among 31 sectors, with energy metals (4.34%), industrial metals (3.84%), and precious metals (1.74%) leading the gains [2][13]. Precious Metals - As of April 25, COMEX gold closed at $3,330.20 per ounce, up 2.31% over two weeks and 24.67% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $33.34 per ounce, up 3.56% over two weeks and 11.19% year-to-date [3][22]. - The report notes that geopolitical risks and monetary policy changes are driving gold prices, with a recent peak above $3,400 per ounce [23][24]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,364 per ton, up 2.00% over two weeks and 7.81% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,412 per ton, up 5.56% over two weeks but down 4.89% year-to-date [30][33]. - The report attributes copper's recent price increase to easing tariff policies and strong demand from the renewable energy sector [30][34]. Minor Metals - Black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 146,000 CNY per ton, up 1.74% over two weeks and 2.28% year-to-date. LME tin was priced at $31,975 per ton, up 1.52% over two weeks and 12.35% year-to-date [37][41]. - Antimony prices are experiencing high volatility due to supply constraints and strong demand from the photovoltaic sector [38][39]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was 171.62, down 5.28% over two weeks but up 4.79% year-to-date. Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide fell by 5.14% over two weeks [50][51]. - The report indicates that recent export control policies are impacting market dynamics, with demand from new energy sectors remaining strong [51]. Energy Metals - Cobalt prices are stable, with electrolytic cobalt averaging 240,500 CNY per ton, up 2.78% over two weeks and 41.06% year-to-date. Sulfuric cobalt (≥20.5%) averaged 49,375 CNY per ton, up 0.05% over two weeks [58][59]. - The report highlights cobalt's critical role in electric vehicle batteries and renewable energy technologies [58]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on strategic minor metals due to changing supply dynamics and geopolitical factors, recommending companies involved in these sectors [5][51].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-04-28 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 汇率偏移极致带来黄金调整，企稳后依然上行 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《看好黄金调整后再上行，铜价到达 压力位》 - 2025.04.21 有色金属行业报告 （2025.4.21-2025.4.25） 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4641.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 ...

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-04-28 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4641.0 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5020.22 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-04 2024-07 2024-09 2024-11 2025-02 2025-04 -22% -18% -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 市场有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 近期研究报告 《看好黄金调整后再上行，铜价到达 压力位》 - ...

Investment Rating - The industry maintains an "Accumulate" rating [5] Core Views - The gold market is expected to enter a consolidation phase in the short term, while still possessing upward momentum in the medium term. Recent price fluctuations are attributed to easing tariff policies and profit-taking by bullish investors. Concerns about the sustainability of central bank gold purchases are also noted [1][36] - For industrial metals, copper is seeing a recovery in prices due to increased downstream operating rates and a significant drop in inventories. The market sentiment has improved following the easing of tariff tensions, although uncertainties from trade conflicts remain [2] - In the energy metals sector, lithium production is being constrained by cost pressures, leading to a reduction in operational rates. The market is closely monitoring inventory levels for signs of a turning point [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Data Tracking - The non-ferrous metal sector has generally seen an increase in prices this week, with specific metals experiencing varied price movements [12][18] - The overall non-ferrous metal index rose by 1.5%, with energy metals up by 2.9% and precious metals down by 2.5% [18] Industrial Metals - **Copper**: Downstream operating rates have improved, and global copper inventories have decreased significantly to 641,000 tons, down by 55,000 tons week-on-week. The market anticipates a price recovery due to increased demand and tight supply conditions [2] - **Aluminum**: The easing of U.S. tariff policies is expected to support aluminum prices in the short term, despite an increase in production capacity [2] Energy Metals - **Lithium**: The production of lithium salts is being curtailed due to rising costs, with current production rates at 45%. The market is awaiting a potential inventory turning point [3] - **Silicon Metal**: High inventory levels are limiting price increases, with current social inventory at 602,000 tons. The market remains in a loose supply-demand balance [3] Key Stocks - Recommended stocks include Zijin Mining, Shandong Gold, and Chalco, all rated as "Buy" with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth [7]

Core Viewpoint - Cloud Aluminum Co., Ltd. (云铝股份) is actively managing its cash and investments to maximize returns while addressing investor concerns regarding its financial performance and supplier relationships [2][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - As of April 25, 2025, Cloud Aluminum's stock closed at 15.35 yuan, reflecting a 1.25% increase with a turnover rate of 1.4% and a trading volume of 483,900 shares, amounting to a transaction value of 750 million yuan [1]. - The company reported a significant difference in cash interest income compared to its competitor, Shenhuo Co., Ltd., despite having double the average cash balance [2]. Group 2: Supplier Relationships - The second-largest supplier for Cloud Aluminum is speculated to be its electricity supplier, with procurement amounting to 8.3 billion yuan, which is approximately half of the company's total fuel and power costs of 15.8 billion yuan [2]. - The company maintains that information regarding its key suppliers is confidential and cannot be disclosed to protect both the company and investor interests [2]. Group 3: Market Activity - On April 25, 2025, the net capital flow for Cloud Aluminum showed a net outflow of 33.01 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 10.29 million yuan, and speculative funds saw a net inflow of 43.30 million yuan [3].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the recent movements of large private equity firms in the A-share market, indicating a strategic shift in investment focus among these institutions as they adapt to market conditions and seek new opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Movements - In Q1 2025, 23 large private equity firms were identified among the top ten shareholders of 96 A-share companies, with a total holding value of 34.975 billion [1]. - High Yi Asset Management led the holdings with a total value of 22.905 billion, having increased positions in companies like Zijin Mining, Longbai Group, and Angel Yeast [2]. - Other notable firms such as Xuan Yuan Investment and various well-known private equity institutions also appeared in the top shareholder lists, indicating a broad interest in the market [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategy - The adjustments in investment portfolios by large private equity firms are driven by two main considerations: market outlook and alignment with policy and industry trends [3]. - The investment logic includes an optimistic view of the equity market, a shift from defensive assets to growth sectors, and a focus on large-cap blue-chip stocks with valuation advantages [3]. - There is a significant emphasis on sectors like artificial intelligence and robotics, reflecting a strategy to capitalize on long-term investment opportunities arising from industrial upgrades [3]. Group 3: Sector Focus - The electronics sector emerged as a primary focus for large private equity firms, with 18 out of 96 heavily invested stocks in this industry [3]. - Other sectors such as basic chemicals and biopharmaceuticals also received attention, with 12 and 10 companies respectively, indicating a diversified investment approach [3]. - The electronics industry's attractiveness is attributed to strong policy support, robust demand in downstream applications, and favorable market conditions for innovation [4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report highlights a rebound in copper prices due to increased downstream activity and accelerated inventory depletion, with copper prices rising by 2.98% in the US, 2.55% in London, and 1.71% in Shanghai. The report notes that the largest copper mine in Peru, Antamina, has halted operations due to an accident, impacting supply. The copper rod operating rate increased to 79.56%, and social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased by 22.15% to 181,700 tons [4][3] - Aluminum prices are rising as domestic inventory decreases, with alumina prices stabilizing after maintenance cuts. The report indicates that electrolytic aluminum margins have improved, suggesting a potential shortage in supply this year [4][3] - Lithium prices are under pressure due to demand growth not meeting expectations, leading to continued inventory accumulation and a downward trend in prices. The report emphasizes the need to monitor potential production cuts and marginal improvements in demand [4][3] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into macroeconomic conditions, noting that initial jobless claims in the US were in line with expectations [8] - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 1.50% [13] 2. Industrial Metals 2.1. Copper - Copper prices increased, with London copper up 2.55% and Shanghai copper up 1.71%. Inventory levels decreased significantly, with Shanghai copper inventory down 31.97% [28] 2.2. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose, with London aluminum increasing by 3.25% and Shanghai aluminum by 1.29%. The report notes a rise in aluminum processing margins [37] 2.3. Lead and Zinc - Lead and zinc prices saw increases, with lead prices up 2.72% and zinc prices up 3.48%. The report indicates improved profitability for mining companies [48] 2.4. Tin and Nickel - Tin prices increased, with London tin up 5.04%. Nickel prices also saw slight increases, but profitability for nickel enterprises has narrowed [63] 3. Energy Metals 3.1. Lithium - Lithium prices are declining, with carbonate lithium down 2.31% to 69,800 yuan/ton. The report highlights the need for monitoring supply-side adjustments [79] 3.2. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have decreased, with domestic cobalt prices at 238,000 yuan/ton. The report notes a decline in profitability for domestic smelting plants [89]

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the Market (Maintain Rating) [1] Core Viewpoints - The macroeconomic expectations are fluctuating, leading to a rebound in the prices of non-ferrous metals, with copper and aluminum continuing to deplete inventories [4][11] - Gold prices have reached historical highs due to increased safe-haven demand, although recent political developments have caused volatility [5][19] - The market sentiment for tin has improved due to easing trade tensions between the US and China, with prices showing a strong upward trend [39] Summary by Sections 1. Base Metals & Precious Metals - Copper: Prices have continued to rise, with the Shanghai copper closing at 77,480 CNY/ton, supported by inventory depletion and stable demand [4][11] - Aluminum: Prices have increased, with the Shanghai aluminum closing at 19,970 CNY/ton, driven by improved market confidence and reduced inventories [15][18] - Precious Metals: As of April 24, the average price of gold was 801.08 CNY/gram, up 4.12% from the previous week, while silver averaged 8,198 CNY/kg, up 1.43% [5][19] 2. Minor Metals - Tin: The price closed at 31,500 USD/ton, up 540 USD/ton (1.74%) from the previous week, with improved macro sentiment and easing supply concerns [39] - Lithium: Prices remain under pressure due to weak demand, with industrial-grade lithium averaging 570,000 CNY/ton [31] - Cobalt: Prices for cobalt concentrate remain stable, while electrolytic cobalt prices have seen slight adjustments [34][35] 3. Rare Earths - Prices for light rare earths have decreased, with neodymium-praseodymium oxide down 2.5% to 406,000 CNY/ton, but long-term demand remains strong [6] 4. Tungsten - Prices for tungsten have increased due to tightening supply, with black tungsten concentrate averaging 147,000 CNY/ton [45][46] 5. Molybdenum - The molybdenum market has shown signs of recovery, with prices for molybdenum concentrate rising to 3,355 CNY/ton [53][54]

Core Viewpoint - The report indicates that Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. has met expectations for Q1 2025 performance, with profits expected to further recover, and a "buy" rating has been assigned to the company [1] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved total operating revenue of 14.411 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 26.89% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 0.974 billion yuan, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The sales gross margin was 9.96%, a decrease of 4.38 percentage points year-on-year but an increase of 0.36 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [1] Market Conditions - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3,863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter [2] - As of March 31, 2025, the domestic average price of alumina was 3,090 yuan/ton, and by April 24, it had dropped to 2,895 yuan/ton, indicating a downward trend that may support profit recovery for the company [2] Production and Pricing - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, driven by improved electricity supply [3] - The average domestic spot price for aluminum in Q1 2025 was 20,455 yuan/ton, a 7.22% increase year-on-year, with prices fluctuating due to macroeconomic uncertainties [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.218 billion yuan, 7.306 billion yuan, and 8.214 billion yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected net profits for 2025-2027 at 62.18 billion, 73.06 billion, and 82.14 billion respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8, 7, and 6 times [10]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 144.11 billion in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.89%, but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 5.59%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 9.74 billion, down 12.26% year-on-year but up 64.66% quarter-on-quarter [7]. - The average price of alumina in Q1 2025 was 3863.5 yuan/ton, up 15.44% year-on-year but down 27.35% quarter-on-quarter. The decline in alumina prices is expected to support profit recovery for the company [8]. - The average capacity utilization rate for electrolytic aluminum in Yunnan reached 99% in Q1 2025, compared to approximately 81% in the same period last year, contributing to increased sales volume. The domestic aluminum spot price was 20455 yuan/ton, up 7.22% year-on-year [9]. Financial Summary - For 2024A, the company reported a revenue of 544.50 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 27.6%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 4412 million, with a net profit growth of 11.5% [12]. - The projected revenue for 2025E is 551.49 billion, with a slight year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The net profit is expected to rise to 6218 million, reflecting a significant growth of 40.9% [12]. - The gross margin is projected to improve from 13.2% in 2024A to 17.3% in 2025E, indicating enhanced profitability [12].