Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The latest released US ISM Manufacturing PMI in January soared from the previous month's 47.9 to 52.6, far exceeding the expected 48.5, indicating a substantial expansion in the US manufacturing sector [7][8]. - The sharp decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals was mainly due to concerns over the overseas AI bubble and the unexpected adjustment of the Fed's replacement candidates. However, there may still be buying opportunities at relatively safe low - points, especially for copper in the long - term [9][11]. - The short - term outlook for stock index futures is expected to stabilize and recover. The end of the "Spring Rally" was affected by policy adjustments and external risks, but there is still a possibility of a second - wave rally [13]. Summary by Relevant Categories 1. Metals Gold and Silver - Yesterday, gold, silver, platinum, and palladium accelerated their decline. The sharp drop was mainly triggered by the fall of US stocks, extreme trading convergence in precious metals, and the potential hawkish stance of the new Fed Chairman. In the short - term, it is recommended to consider option strategies mainly based on selling options, and the internal - external spread of silver may converge. The support level for gold is lowered to $4275 per ounce, and for silver, it remains at $70 per ounce [9][10]. Copper - The price of copper was weak due to pessimistic sentiment. The US manufacturing expansion and production changes in major copper - producing regions such as Zambia, Chile, and Canada affected the market. The copper trend strength was neutral [24][25][26]. Zinc - Zinc was in a range - bound oscillation. News such as the delay of the US employment report and the potential Fed Chairman's plan to shrink the balance sheet influenced the market. The zinc trend strength was neutral [27][28][29]. Lead - The decrease in LME lead inventory limited the price decline. Positive US manufacturing data and the delay of the US employment report were important news. The lead trend strength was neutral [30][31]. Tin - Tin was in a phase of decline and consolidation. The price of tin dropped significantly, and there were various macro and industry news such as Iran - US negotiations. The tin trend strength was bearish [33][34][35]. Aluminum - Aluminum was waiting for market repair. Alumina had a slight rebound, and cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum. There were various data changes in the aluminum market, and relevant news such as Iran - US nuclear negotiations and India - US trade agreements affected the market. The aluminum trend strength was bullish, while alumina and aluminum alloy were neutral [37][38]. Platinum and Palladium - Platinum was slightly recovering in the oscillation, and palladium had strong resilience but was still in low - level oscillation. The market was affected by factors such as the delay of the US employment report and the expansion of the US manufacturing sector. The trend strength of both was neutral [39][40][43]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - The marginal influence on nickel was dominated by macro sentiment, with a game between fundamentals and speculative positions. For stainless steel, there were frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and nickel - iron was expected to support the price. The trend strength of both was neutral [46][47][52]. 2. Energy - related Coal - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Both were in high - level oscillations. The coking coal market had issues such as a high auction non - sale rate, and the price of both was affected by factors like the adjustment of the CCI metallurgical coal index [74][75]. - **Steam Coal**: The supply - demand was in a weak balance, and the coal price before the Spring Festival was expected to be stable. The market was affected by factors such as port inventory changes and potential production cuts in Indonesia [79][80]. 3. Chemicals PX, PTA, and MEG - PX followed the sharp decline of oil prices and was in an interval - oscillation market. PTA was also in an interval - oscillation market with a bearish view on the monthly spread. MEG was in a unilateral interval - oscillation market with large supply pressure. The market was affected by factors such as the restart of domestic and overseas devices, changes in the supply - demand of PTA and MEG, and the decline of the overall commodity market [85][90][91]. Rubber and Synthetic Rubber - Rubber was in a weak - oscillation trend. The inventory in Qingdao increased, and the production and sales of tires were affected by the approaching Spring Festival. Synthetic rubber was in a high - level decline, influenced by factors such as the reduction of geopolitical conflicts and the approaching boundary of valuation indicators [93][96][98]. LLDPE and PP - LLDPE had a narrowing import profit, limited offers, and weakened oil price support. PP was greatly affected by cost, and its profit might be repaired. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of raw material prices, changes in supply and demand, and the profit of production devices [99][100][103]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda was supported by cost, and the future expectation was strong. Although the high - inventory situation made the spot market weak before the Spring Festival, the market's expectation of future supply reduction was strong. The trend strength was bullish [105][107][110]. Pulp - Pulp was in a wide - range oscillation. The market demand was weak, and the high - inventory and weak - demand contradiction restricted the market trend. The trend strength was neutral [111][113][114]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets was stable. The market demand was limited, and attention should be paid to the winter - storage policy of manufacturers in high - inventory areas. The trend strength was neutral [116][117]. Methanol - Methanol was oscillating with support. The macro - sentiment was weak, but the international energy price provided support. The supply - demand pattern was weak in the short - term, and the inventory was high. The trend strength was neutral [119][121][122]. Urea - Urea was in short - term horizontal consolidation. The macro - sentiment was weak, and there was a small - scale state reserve release. The fundamental pressure and support levels were clear. The trend strength was neutral [124][125][126]. Styrene - Styrene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The market was in a high - production and high - inventory pattern, and the future supply - demand situation and the restart of parking devices should be noted. The trend strength was neutral [127][128]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash changed little. The supply was high, and the demand was weak. The price was expected to be weakly stable and oscillating. The trend strength was neutral [130][132]. LPG and Propylene - LPG was strongly affected by short - term geopolitical factors, and the fundamental driving force was downward. Propylene's upward driving force was weakening, and attention should be paid to cost - end disturbances. The market was affected by factors such as price changes, device maintenance plans, and changes in shipping volume. The trend strength of both was neutral [134][138][139]. PVC - PVC had a strong sentiment, but the fundamentals did not improve significantly. Although there were some supporting factors in the short - term, the high - production and high - inventory structure was difficult to change, and attention should be paid to the future supply reduction situation. The trend strength was neutral [142][143][144]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel oil had a sharp decline and continued in a high - volatility state. Low - sulfur fuel oil mainly followed the decline, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market continued to shrink. The trend strength of both was bearish [147]. 4. Others Logs - Logs had a slight upward exploration. The price and trading volume of log contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the manufacturing PMI. The trend strength was bullish [81][83][84]. Shipping Index (European Line) - The shipping index (European line) was in an oscillating market. The market was affected by factors such as the weakening of commodity sentiment, the easing of the geopolitical situation, and changes in shipping capacity. Different contracts had different strategies. The trend strength was neutral [149][160][162]. Short - fiber and Bottle - grade Resin - Both short - fiber and bottle - grade resin were in short - term oscillations after the release of emotional risks. The market was affected by factors such as price changes of upstream polyester raw materials and production and sales of products. The trend strength of both was neutral [165][166]. Offset Printing Paper - For offset printing paper, it was recommended to hold short positions and conduct a 3 - 4 reverse spread. The price in the spot market was stable, and the trading atmosphere was weak. The trend strength was bearish [168][169][170]. Pure Benzene - Pure benzene was in a relatively strong oscillation. The inventory in some ports decreased, and the price changed. The trend strength was neutral [173][174][175]. Fats and Oils - Palm oil was affected by the ebb of macro - sentiment and the attenuation of geopolitical influence, and soybean oil was in high - level oscillation adjustment. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices, the expected high yield of South American soybeans, and relevant policies in Indonesia. The trend strength of both was neutral [177][178][179]. Soybean Meal and Soybean - Soybean meal oscillated following the sentiment of the commodity market, and the state - reserve auction of soybeans had a positive impact. The market was affected by factors such as the decline of international crude oil prices and the expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans. The trend strength of both was neutral [183][185]. Corn - The decline range of corn was limited. The price in the spot market changed, and the futures price was affected by the overall market situation. The trend strength was neutral [186][187][188]. Sugar - Sugar was in a weak operation. The global sugar supply - demand situation changed, and attention should be paid to policies such as China's import of syrup and premixed powder. The trend strength was bearish [189][190][191]. Cotton - Cotton was expected to maintain an oscillating trend. The spot trading of cotton was average, the price of cotton yarn was stable, and the ICE cotton futures declined. The trend strength was bullish [193][194][197]. Eggs - The spot price of eggs weakened. The prices of futures and spot contracts changed, and the market was affected by factors such as the prices of feed and related products. The trend strength was bearish [199][200]. Hogs - The pre - festival price increase of hogs was less than expected, and the pressure increased. The prices of spot and futures contracts changed, and the trend strength was bearish [202][203][204]. Peanuts - Peanuts were in a weak - oscillating state. The spot price was stable, and the futures price and trading volume changed. The trend strength was neutral [206][207][208].

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦炭】Mysteel统计全国230家独立焦企样本：产能 利用率为70.75%，减0.66%；焦炭日均产量49.51万吨，减0.46 万吨； 焦炭库存43.99万吨， 增1.74万吨； 炼焦煤总库 存 1035.34万吨，增40.13万吨；焦煤可用天数15.7天，增0.75 天。评：焦炭供应受环保及利润影响难有明显增量，而下游钢 厂复产预期仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，现货提涨落 地后或暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。 【短评-白银】美国1月ISM制造业PMI指数升至52.6，远高 于预期的48.5，创2022年8月以来新高，主要受新订单和产出稳 健增长的提振。评：美国经济数据持续向好，对白银基本面存 在一定支撑，但近期白银受黄金影响较大，美元指数持续反 弹，利空黄金，白银短期或跟随黄金波动，中期暂看高位震 荡。关注黄金、白银相互影响。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月03日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com 期货从业资格号：F0255552 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0010784 姓名：曹宝琴 邮箱：caobaoqin@nz ...

Swiss miner Glencore is close to engaging Citi as its lead investment bank on its potential acquisition by Rio Tinto that could create the world's largest miner worth over $200 billion, two people fam... ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, the global copper market hit a new high but with significant fluctuations. The rise was mainly driven by market sentiment and capital inflow, and the price increase was also affected by the changes in the US dollar index and the nomination of a new Fed chair. The domestic copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increased inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [5][8]. - Looking ahead to 2026, the global copper market is expected to shift from a tight - balance to a supply - shortage situation, with a projected shortage of 150,000 tons of refined copper. The supply of copper concentrates will remain tight, while the demand from the power grid, new energy, and AI sectors is expected to grow [48][89]. - The long - term upward trend of copper prices is clear. Financially, the US dollar index is likely to decline in the long - term, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. Fundamentally, although the short - term supply is abundant, the long - term supply of copper concentrates is tight, and demand is expected to increase [118]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Copper Market Review in January - The global copper market in January 2026 hit a new high with significant fluctuations. London copper briefly broke through the $14,000 mark but then fell back. The monthly gains of LME copper and SHFE copper were both around 5%, with the outer market slightly stronger than the inner market. Market sentiment and capital inflow were more important factors than fundamentals. The rise in gold and silver prices led to capital overflow into the copper market, and the high gold - copper ratio provided upward momentum for copper valuation [5][8]. - Macroeconomically, the Fed kept interest rates unchanged in January, and the US dollar index fell to a nearly 4 - year low, boosting the prices of gold, silver, and copper. However, Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair at the end of the month caused a shock in global assets, and the US dollar index rebounded strongly, dragging down copper prices [8]. - Domestically, China's manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. Liquidity was further relaxed, inflation recovered moderately, and market risk appetite increased [8]. - Fundamentally, domestic electrolytic copper production reached a new monthly high, while demand entered the off - season. The global copper market showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, with increasing inventory and alleviated structural contradictions [8]. 3.2 Global Macro and Copper Market - China's inflation is expected to recover moderately in 2026. The manufacturing PMI in December 2025 rose back to the expansion range but fell below 50 in January 2026. The consumer price index and core CPI increased, and the PPI showed signs of recovery. The domestic economy is expected to continue the transformation trend of 2025, and copper will benefit from the strong demand in new energy, power grid investment, and AI data center construction [11][13]. - China's copper demand is likely to reach its peak and the growth rate will gradually slow down in the long - term, while the US copper demand has great growth potential due to the reshoring of manufacturing and the expansion of AI capital expenditure. The US is entering a new inventory replenishment cycle, which is positive for copper prices in the medium - term. Although Nvidia's downward revision of the copper demand forecast in data centers caused short - term negative sentiment, the impact on the overall supply - demand balance is limited [18]. - The US dollar index has weakened, which has boosted the prices of gold and silver. The Fed's interest rate decision and Trump's nomination of a new Fed chair have affected the US dollar index. In the long - term, the US dollar is likely to enter a downward cycle [20]. 3.3 Copper Supply Situation Analysis - **Mine End**: The global copper mine faces the problems of slow growth and decreasing grade. The annual compound growth rate of global copper mine production has declined from about 5% during 2015 - 2016 to about 2% in recent years. Major mining companies such as Southern Copper and Glencore have lowered their future production forecasts. The global copper concentrate supply shortage is difficult to alleviate in the short - term, and the supply gap is expected to widen in 2026 and may not be alleviated until 2028 [23][25][27]. - **Domestic Smelting End**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper production reached a new high, mainly due to the release of new capacity, the high price of by - products such as sulfuric acid, and the substitution of scrap copper. In January 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production increased slightly, but it is expected to decline in February. In 2026, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to be about 13 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%, and global electrolytic copper production is expected to decrease by 4% [31][33]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees**: The long - term processing fee (TC/RC) of copper concentrates in 2026 has been set at $0/ton and $0 cents/lb, indicating a tight supply situation. The competition for global copper concentrates will become more intense, and the import copper concentrate index (TC) in China is expected to continue to decline [36]. - **Scrap Copper and Anode**: In 2025, China's recycled copper raw material imports and domestic recycling volume increased. The proportion of recycled copper raw materials flowing to the smelting end continued to rise. In January 2026, the spread between refined and scrap copper widened, and the supply of scrap anodes increased, boosting electrolytic copper production [37][39]. - **Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In 2025, China's electrolytic copper import volume decreased, and the export volume increased, achieving a tight supply - demand balance. In 2026, the adjustment trend of the import - export structure is expected to continue, and the net import volume may continue to decline [40][42]. 3.4 Copper Demand Situation Analysis - **Domestic Copper Products Production**: In 2025, China's copper products production reached a new high. In January 2026, production was in the seasonal off - season. In 2026, China's copper products production is expected to maintain double - digit growth, and global total demand is expected to increase by 4 - 5% year - on - year [45][48]. - **Refined Copper Rod**: In 2026, the production of refined copper rods is expected to increase significantly, mainly due to the strengthening of domestic power grid investment. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period will see a significant increase in power grid investment, and 2026 is expected to achieve double - digit growth [49][51]. - **Copper Tube**: In 2025, the output of copper tubes increased slightly. In 2026, the output is expected to decline slightly due to the limited effect of consumption - stimulating policies and the high - base effect of exports [52][54]. - **Copper Bar**: In 2025, the production of copper bars decreased, and in 2026, it is expected to continue to decline, becoming a drag on copper consumption due to factors such as the real estate downturn, high copper prices, and policy uncertainties [55][57]. - **Copper Plate and Strip**: In 2025, the production of copper plate and strip was lower than the average in recent years, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 due to the impact of the real estate cycle [58][60]. - **Copper Foil**: In 2025, the output of copper foil increased significantly, and in 2026, it is expected to maintain high - speed growth due to the development of the new energy vehicle and energy storage industries [61][67]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, power grid investment reached a new high. In the "15th Five - Year Plan" period, power grid investment is expected to increase significantly, and in 2026, the investment of the State Grid and Southern Grid is expected to reach 70 billion yuan and 19 billion yuan respectively, with a year - on - year growth rate of over 7% [68][71]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, real estate investment continued to decline, and in 2026, it is expected to remain a drag on copper consumption [72][74]. - **Home Appliance Consumption**: In 2025, the policy of replacing old home appliances with new ones boosted consumption, but the growth rate slowed down in the second half of the year. In 2026, the policy will continue, which is expected to support home appliance consumption [75][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles and AI**: In 2025, the production of new energy vehicles increased significantly, and it is expected to maintain high - speed growth in the future. The copper demand in the new energy and AI fields is expected to increase rapidly, and the combined copper demand is expected to account for 22% by 2030 [78][80]. 3.5 Copper Inventory Change Analysis - In 2025, the total inventory of the three major global exchanges increased, but the inventory structure was contradictory. In 2026, the global copper market shifted to a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and the total inventory increased, with the structural contradiction alleviating. The domestic social inventory has entered the inventory accumulation cycle [83][85]. 3.6 Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance - In 2025, the global refined copper market was in a state of supply surplus. In 2026, it is expected to shift to a supply - shortage situation, with a shortage of 150,000 tons [89]. 3.7 Copper Position Analysis - As of January 20, 2026, the total position of COMEX copper futures and options increased, but the net long position decreased. The long - position of LME copper investment funds decreased in January, indicating that the market's bullish sentiment has become more cautious [97]. 3.8 Arbitrage Analysis - In January, the Shanghai - London ratio of copper decreased, and it is expected to continue to decline in 2026. The copper - zinc ratio has been rising and is expected to continue to rise in 2026 [102]. 3.9 Copper Option Market - In January, the historical volatility and implied volatility of copper options rose to a nearly 3 - year high. The market showed signs of over - buying in the short - term, and it is suitable to sell options. The option strategy suggests constructing a short - position of slightly out - of - the - money put options to collect premiums. The PCR ratio shows that the option market's expectation of copper prices has turned bullish [107][109]. 3.10 Copper Market Outlook and Operation Suggestions - Technically, copper has broken through the long - term shock range and formed a 20 - year cup - and - handle pattern, which is a bullish signal [116]. - In January, the rise of copper prices was mainly due to the repair of valuation. In the long - term, the downward trend of the US dollar index is clear, and copper is expected to be an important asset allocation for macro funds. In the short - term, the supply is abundant, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is increasing. The operation suggestion is that downstream demanders can conduct long - term hedging operations, and the option strategy can consider selling slightly out - of - the - money put options or constructing a short - straddle strategy to short volatility. The short - term support range of the SHFE copper main contract is expected to be 98,000 - 99,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure range is expected to be 108,000 - 110,000 yuan/ton [118].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the copper price reached a peak and then declined, mainly due to the rapid cooling of the global market's risk - aversion sentiment. The proposed monetary policy framework of Kevin Warsh, the newly nominated chairman of the Federal Reserve, may boost the US dollar index in the medium - term. The market's divergence became more obvious after the prices of gold, silver, and copper hit record highs. Some long - position funds in precious metals took profits and switched to other assets. Fundamentally, the tight supply pattern at the mine end continued, the output of domestic smelters declined marginally, the global visible inventory continued to rise, the premium of domestic trade spot widened, and the C - structure of the near - month futures contract expanded [2][8]. - Overall, Warsh's monetary policy framework may boost the US dollar to a certain extent, causing the global capital market's risk - aversion sentiment to decline significantly. The long - position funds in gold and silver took profits at high levels, triggering a sell - off. However, the structural imbalance in copper's fundamentals can still support the price center in the medium - term. It is expected that the copper price will decline in the short - term, and the fluctuation range will continue to expand [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Price Changes**: LME copper decreased by $58.00 to $13,070.50 per ton, a decline of 0.44%; COMEX copper increased by 3 cents to 596.7 cents per pound, a rise of 0.51%; SHFE copper increased by 2,340 yuan to 103,680 yuan per ton, a rise of 2.31%; international copper increased by 770 yuan to 91,890 yuan per ton, a rise of 0.85% [4]. - **Ratio and Premium Changes**: The Shanghai - London ratio increased by 0.21 to 7.93; the LME spot premium decreased by $23.82 to - $89.88 per ton, a decline of 36.06%; the Shanghai spot premium increased by 30 yuan to - 150 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 30, the combined inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai Bonded Area rose to 1.085 million tons. LME inventory increased by 3,275 tons to 174,975 tons, a rise of 1.91%; COMEX inventory increased by 15,119 short tons to 577,724 short tons, a rise of 2.69%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,067 tons to 232,986 tons, a rise of 3.13%; Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased by 600 tons to 99,000 tons, a decline of 0.60% [7][8]. Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The decline in copper price was due to the cooling of risk - aversion sentiment, the potential boost to the US dollar from Warsh's monetary policy, and the profit - taking of precious - metal long - position funds. Fundamentally, the supply at the mine end was tight, domestic smelter output declined, inventory increased, and the spot premium and futures structure changed [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: The global copper inventory continued to rise. The LME copper inventory increased, and the proportion of cancelled warrants decreased; the SHFE inventory increased; the Shanghai Bonded Area inventory decreased. The decline in the Yangshan copper warrant was due to the traditional consumption off - season and import losses [8]. - **Macroeconomic Factors**: The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate, and Powell mentioned possible policy relaxation. The US consumer confidence index declined, and the US - Iran conflict escalated. Domestically, the release of the Qwen3 - Max - Thinking model will promote the development of the data center, and the "14th Five - Year Plan" grid investment will support copper consumption [9]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The copper production of some global mining companies declined or was expected to decline, and the domestic refined copper supply had marginal contraction pressure. In terms of demand, traditional industries were affected by high copper prices, while emerging industries such as new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, and AI data centers provided new consumption momentum [10]. Industry News - **Southern Copper**: Due to the decline in ore grades at its core mines in Peru and the focus on increasing silver production, the company expects its copper production to decline in 2026 - 2027. It is estimated to be 91.14 tons in 2026 and "slightly over 90 tons" in 2027, compared with 95.427 tons in 2025 [12]. - **Antofagasta**: Its 2025 copper production was 65.37 tons, a 1.6% year - on - year decline, not meeting the performance guidance. The company maintained its 2026 production outlook. It also reduced its 2025 capital expenditure due to the depreciation of the Chilean peso and was fined for water - management violations [13]. - **Glencore**: Its 2025 copper production decreased by 11% to 85.16 tons, at the lower end of the expected range. It expects 2026 production to be between 810,000 and 870,000 tons, and aims to increase annual production to about 1.6 million tons by 2035, subject to potential changes from mergers and acquisitions [14]. Relevant Charts - The report includes 18 charts showing the price trends, inventory changes, basis, spread, premium, and other aspects of copper in different markets such as the Shanghai Futures Exchange, LME, and COMEX, as well as the relationship between copper prices and other factors like exchange rates and investment positions [16][20][24][30][32][36][38][42]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Views - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc futures reached a high and then declined. The nomination of Kevin Warsh by Trump as the new Fed Chair turned the market sentiment. Warsh advocates "rate cuts + balance sheet reduction", leading the market to expect a more hawkish Fed policy. The strengthening US dollar index and the sharp drop in precious metals dragged down the industrial metals. China's January PMI fell below the boom - bust line and was weaker than the seasonal average. [3][9] - Fundamentally, the previous supporting factors have weakened. With the US - Iran dialogue, the concerns about the zinc ore supply and energy price hikes have eased. Due to the off - season of domestic consumption and rising raw material prices, downstream enterprises began to take holidays at the end of January, and the开工 rates of galvanizing, die - casting zinc alloy, and zinc oxide enterprises decreased. [3][9] - On the supply side, the rising zinc price repaired the smelters' profits, and production was relatively stable. China has entered the pre - Spring Festival inventory accumulation period, and the fundamentals cannot support the current high price. However, the cold wave in the US pushed up the European natural gas price, increasing overseas smelters' production costs. During the long - term processing fee negotiation period, potential supply disruptions can support the price. [3][9] - Overall, Warsh's hawkish policy stance will push the US dollar to rebound, and the selling pressure on precious metals will spill over to industrial metals. The weakening demand before the Chinese Spring Festival is negative for the zinc price. In the short term, the futures price faces significant adjustment pressure. After the release of pessimistic sentiment, the rising overseas smelting costs and potential supply disruptions will limit the depth of the price adjustment. The market is currently highly volatile, and cautious trading is recommended. [3][10] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Trading Data - From January 23rd to January 30th, the SHFE zinc price rose from 24,585 yuan/ton to 25,835 yuan/ton, an increase of 1250 yuan/ton; the LME zinc price rose from 3269 US dollars/ton to 3370 US dollars/ton, an increase of 101 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 7.52 to 7.67. [4] - The SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons; the LME inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons. The social inventory decreased by 1.32 million tons to 10.37 million tons. The spot premium decreased from 40 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton. [4] 2. Market Review - The main contract of Shanghai zinc (ZN2603) reached a new high of 26,985 yuan/ton last week, then closed at 25,835 yuan/ton on Friday, with a weekly gain of 5.08%. It fluctuated narrowly at night on Friday. LME zinc reached 3575.5 US dollars/ton, then closed at 3370 US dollars/ton, with a weekly gain of 3.09%. [5] - In the spot market as of January 30th, zinc prices rose, smelters and traders actively sold, but downstream buyers were reluctant to purchase due to high prices, and some had already taken holidays. The spot market turned to a slight discount. [6] - As of January 30th, the LME zinc inventory decreased by 1500 tons to 110,000 tons, and the SHFE inventory decreased by 7997 tons to 65,154 tons. As of January 29th, the social inventory increased, with a decrease in Tianjin and Guangdong and an increase in Shanghai. [7] - In the macro - aspect, the US durable goods orders in November 2025 increased by 5.3% month - on - month, and the core durable goods orders increased by 0.5%. The Fed maintained the interest rate at 3.50% - 3.75%. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair. Iran and the US were in dialogue. Trump raised tariffs on South Korean goods and threatened to impose tariffs on Canadian planes. China's January manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, and comprehensive PMI was 49.8%. [7][8] 3. Industry News - On the week of January 30, 2026, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fees were reported at 1500 yuan/metal ton and 25.5 US dollars/dry ton, with the average remaining flat and decreasing by 4.25 US dollars/dry ton respectively. [11] - Southern Copper found a high - grade zinc and silver ore section in Mexico. Develop Global's Woodlawn copper - zinc mine in New South Wales achieved stable production. Glencore's zinc output in 2025 was 969,400 tons, a 7% increase from 2024. Fresnilloplc's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 27,500 tons, a 11% increase quarter - on - quarter. 29Metals' zinc concentrate production in Q4 2025 was 3400 tons, a 72% increase quarter - on - quarter. South 32's zinc concentrate output in Q4 2025 was 10,400 tons, a 25% increase quarter - on - quarter. [12] - Starting from the close of trading on January 30, 2026, the daily price limit for alumina, lead, and zinc futures contracts was adjusted to 9%, the margin ratio for hedging positions to 10%, and the general position margin ratio to 11%. [13] 4. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the price trends of SHFE zinc and LME zinc, the internal - external price ratio, spot premiums and discounts, inventory levels of different exchanges and regions, zinc ore processing fees, zinc ore import profits and losses, domestic refined zinc production, smelter profits, refined zinc net imports, and downstream enterprise开工 rates. [14][18][20]

日度报告——综合晨报 特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，贵金属剧 烈波动 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-02 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 特朗普称希望与伊朗"能够达成协议" 特朗普对于伊朗的态度暗昧不清，市场地缘风险短期回落，市 场风险偏好走低。 宏观策略（国债期货） 中国 1 月官方制造业 PMI 不及预期 PMI 虽不及预期，但潜在利空因素仍然较多，后续市场震荡转 弱的概率较高。 综 宏观策略（黄金） 合 唐纳德•特朗普提名凯文•沃什出任美联储主席 晨 报 周五贵金属剧烈波动，黄金大跌白银暴跌，特朗普提名凯文沃 什为下任美联储主席，由于其鹰派的历史，市场预期后续货币 政策将采取降息+缩表的模式，短期流动性释放预期下降。 农产品（棉花） 截至 1 月 22 日当周，25/26 年度美棉周度签约量环比同比大降 至 4.62 万吨，但装运有所提速。25/26 美棉出口签约进度仍落后， 后续出口情况仍需持续跟踪。 能源化工（原油） 欧佩克+原则上同意三月份继续暂停原定增产计划 油价略偏强，中东地缘冲突风险支撑油价。 航运指数（集装箱运价） 2025 年完成港口货物吞吐量 183.4 亿吨 ...

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 01 年 月 日 有色金属 宏观情绪降温，金属价格普调 贵金属：沃什鹰派担忧叠加高拥挤度，金银创历史最大单日跌幅。北京时间 1 月 31 日凌晨， 现货白银价格一度暴跌 36%，创出历史最大日内跌幅；现货黄金价格一度下跌超过 12%， 盘中跌穿每盎司 4700 美元，遭遇 40 年来单日最大跌幅。周五特朗普政府准备提名凯文·沃 什为新一任美联储主席，但此次抛售或为多重因素叠加，既包括美联储主席人选的公布，也 涉及更宏观的资金流动层面，多杀多放大了行情的下跌幅度。沃什支持"降息与缩表并行" 的政策组合，其逻辑是通过缩减资产负债表控制通胀，为降低名义利率创造条件。但降息旨 在增加市场流动性、刺激经济增长，而缩表则是通过减少美联储资产负债表规模来回收流动 性、抑制通胀。两者操作方向相反，可能导致政策效果相互抵消，引发市场对政策意图的困 惑。我们认为其政策主张仍将受到美国经济基本面和外部条件的掣肘，特朗普一系列政策行 为所引发的海外投资者对美债担忧仍然存在，若缺乏美联储支持，长债利率下降可能仍有难 度，后续关注新提名主席表态。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛 ...

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Shandong Gold, Zijin Mining, and China Hongqiao [9]. Core Views - The macroeconomic sentiment has cooled, leading to a general decline in metal prices, particularly in precious metals where silver and gold experienced significant drops [1]. - The report highlights the ongoing supply constraints in the copper market, with major mining companies reducing their production forecasts due to capacity limitations [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic policies, with demand anticipated to recover as the peak season approaches [3]. - Nickel prices have shown volatility, influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and supply-side cost pressures, with expectations of limited downside due to rising production costs [4]. - Tin prices are supported by macroeconomic factors and supply chain bottlenecks, although demand remains weak ahead of the Chinese New Year [5]. - Lithium prices have retreated from highs due to regulatory impacts and market liquidity tightening, but there is expected support from supply-side maintenance and pre-holiday stocking [6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Significant declines in silver and gold prices were noted, with silver dropping 36% and gold falling over 12% in a single day [1]. - Companies to watch include Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Industrial Metals - Copper inventories increased globally, with a notable rise in U.S. stocks, while Chinese inventories decreased [2]. - The report suggests monitoring companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum [2]. - Aluminum production is stable, but demand is fluctuating due to seasonal factors and geopolitical issues [3]. - Nickel prices fell by 5.4% due to macroeconomic sentiment, with supply-side cost pressures expected to limit further declines [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices have decreased, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping 5.6% to 160,000 CNY/ton [5]. - The report indicates that companies like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium should be monitored [5]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices have stabilized, with a slight increase in electrolytic cobalt prices [8]. - Companies to focus on include Huayou Cobalt and Liyuan Resources [8]. Company Announcements - Zijin Mining announced a significant acquisition of a gold mining company, which could enhance its resource base [36]. - Huayou Cobalt signed a cooperation agreement for an integrated battery supply chain project in Indonesia [36]. - Tianqi Lithium reported progress on its lithium production expansion project [36].

铜产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·季先飞·首席分析师/有色及贵金属 组联席行政负责人 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 日期：2026年02月01日 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 1 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铜：长期逻辑依然稳固，低位支撑价格 强弱分析：震荡，价格区间：98000-110000元/吨 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 ◆ 风险点：美国经济衰退，引发系统性金融风险。 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 2020-05 2020-09 2021-01 2021-05 2021-09 2022-01 2022-05 2022-09 2023-01 2023-05 2023-09 2024-01 2024-05 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 2025-09 2026-01 2026-05 2026-09 2027-01 2027-05 20 ...