Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the lithium and cobalt sectors, indicating clear investment value and suggesting active positioning in these areas [8][12]. Core Insights - The report highlights that supply disruptions, particularly from Zimbabwe, have intensified expectations for supply contraction, leading to a significant rebound in lithium prices post-holiday. The lithium price is expected to continue rising in the second quarter due to ongoing demand in the energy storage sector and supply-side disturbances [4][12][13]. - Cobalt prices are supported by raw material costs, with insufficient arrival volumes at ports, indicating limited downward space in the short term [4][12]. Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment: Supply Disruptions Trigger Lithium Price Rebound - The lithium sector is experiencing price acceleration due to supply disturbances and post-holiday replenishment. Futures contracts have seen significant weekly increases, with the Wuxi contract rising 16.95% to 174,600 CNY/ton and the Guangzhou contract increasing 15.33% to 176,000 CNY/ton. Lithium concentrate prices have also surged, with a reported increase of 372 USD/ton to 2,372 USD/ton [8][12][13]. 2. Company and Industry Dynamics - Zimbabwe has announced an immediate suspension of all raw mineral and lithium concentrate exports, aiming to strengthen mineral regulation and accountability. This move is expected to compress the available supply from Africa, increasing uncertainty and risk premiums in the raw material sector [16]. - Core Lithium has agreed to sell its lithium spodumene inventory to Glencore, which is expected to provide significant momentum for potential resumption of production [16]. 3. Core Data on New Energy Materials: Mixed Production Changes and Price Increases - In January, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 5% month-on-month, while hydroxide production decreased by 4%. The report indicates a structural adjustment in inventory levels [17][18]. - The report notes that cobalt production in January saw a month-on-month decline of 5% for sulfate and 8% for chloride, while year-on-year increases were recorded at 13% and 32%, respectively [20][29]. 4. Lithium Salt Import and Export Data - In December, lithium carbonate imports rose by 9% month-on-month, while hydroxide exports surged by 88%. This reflects a strong demand and supply dynamic in the lithium market [34][40]. 5. Price Trends in New Energy Metals - The average weekly price for battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 18.35%, while industrial-grade prices rose by 18.83%. The average price for battery-grade lithium hydroxide also saw a significant increase of 15.35% [63][64].

嘉能可表示，这项潜在协议涵盖其在穆坦达矿业公司和卡莫托铜业公司的股份，这两家公司的股份总价 值近90亿美元。该公司目前持有穆坦达矿业公司95%的股份和卡莫托铜业公司70%的股份。去年，穆坦 达和卡莫托共生产了247,800吨铜和33,500吨钴精矿和氢氧化物，占嘉能可铜总产量的近30%。 （原标题：美国瞄准刚果民主共和国的铜和钴矿） 据《非洲简讯》2月25日报道，一家美国支持的投资基金与矿业巨头嘉能可签署了一项不具约束力的协 议，收购刚果民主共和国主要铜钴矿40%的股份，这标志着美国再次加大力度确保关键矿产供应。 2月2日的协议涉及由美国政府支持的投资机构OrionCriticalMineralConsortium和嘉能可在穆坦达矿业公 司和卡莫托铜业公司的权益，这两个项目是该国最具战略意义的矿业项目。如果交易完成，将加强美国 对电动汽车、可再生能源基础设施和先进工业技术所需矿产资源的获取。 这项拟议交易是近十年来美国在刚果（金）矿业领域最重要的投资之一。与此同时，美国正加大力度确 保铜钴供应的可靠性，这两种金属日益被视为对经济安全和产业政策至关重要的因素。分析人士表示， 随着围绕战略资源的地缘政治竞争加剧， ...

| . | | --- | | 战略储备需求增加，铜价偏强震荡 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 2 | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 2 | | | | 第一部分 | 铜市场综述 3 | | | 3 | | | | 3 | | | | 第二部分 | 地缘局势紧张，战略储备需求增加 | 5 | | 第三部分 | 供应端 7 | | | 第四部分 | 消费面分析 15 | | | 15 | | | | 18 | | | | 21 | | | | 24 | | | | 26 | | | | 第五部分 | 供需平衡表 27 | | | 免责声明 | | 28 | 有色金属研发报告 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 战略储备需求增加，铜价偏强震荡 第一部分 铜市场综述 邮 箱 银河期货 第 2 页 共 29 页 有色金属研发报告 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 第一部分 铜市场综述 第 3 页 共 29 页 铜 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 图 1：铜价走势图 图 2：沪铜隔月价差（连一-连三）（元/吨） 图 ...

| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情回顾】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 市场回顾 | 3 | | | 第三部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | | 一、精炼镍产量季节性变动 | | 3 | | | 二、不锈钢低价原料不足，保持淡季去库 | | 8 | | | 三、三元需求淡季不淡 | | 16 | | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 22 | | | 免责声明 | | | 24 | 有色板块研发报告 镍 3 月报 2026 年 2 月 27 日 【行情回顾】 2 月，镍价先跌后涨，运行区间收窄，低点下探 13 万，高点却也不足 14.5 万。当前市场交易逻辑被印尼镍产品供应扰动主导，不断有新消息刺 激市场神经。2 月横跨春节长假，节前资金流出避险，价格回调；节后下游 逐步复工，市场情绪回暖，资金重返镍市，呈现量价齐增的格局。 【市场展望】 宏观层面，地缘政治冲突加剧、货币贬值压力显现、通胀预期升温，资 金流入商品市场，有色板块虽然 1 月冲高后技术性回调，但中长期涨势尚未 结束。产业 ...

2026 年 2 月 27 日星期五 研究员：张毅驰 从业资格：F03108196 交易咨询资格：Z0021480 联系方式：15018531496 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 沪铜主力合约 夜盘收盘价 CU2604 102550 元/吨，较上一交易日夜盘收盘价下跌 0.4 7%。沪铜次主力合约 CU2605 夜盘收于 102870 元/吨，跌幅 0.42%。截止北京时间 2026-02-27 06:00，COMEX 铜主力合约 HGK26E 收盘价为 6.025 美元/磅（按汇率 换算为 铜主力合约 6.8397 90849 元/吨），较上一交易日下跌 0.31%。LME CA03M E 收于 13259 美元/吨（按汇率 6.8397 换算为 90688 元/吨），跌幅 0.68%。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色 | 铜 | 震荡偏多 | 【重要资讯】 1、2 月 26 日，财联社资讯，日本半导体材料厂 Resonac 宣布自 3 月 1 日起上调涨铜 箔基板（CCL）、黏合胶片等印刷电路板（PCB）材料售价，涨幅达 30%以上。 2、 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多 次降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2026-02-27 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 芝加哥联储行长：若通胀回落 美联储可能多次降息 伊朗外长称美伊谈判取得进展，市场风险偏好回落，美元指数 走低。 宏观策略（股指期货） A 股放量震荡整理 综 市场成交逐渐放量，更多流动性回归场内交易，这是我们判断 春季躁动仍未结束的原因之一。海外 AI 泡沫担忧逐渐深化，A 股或受映射。科技股短期回调压力增加，但中期仍看好。 巴西 2 月前两周出口糖和糖蜜 131.38 万吨 本榨季印度糖估产大幅下调 165 万吨至 2930 万吨，这将支撑印 度国内糖价，并限制其出口量，同时也有利于减轻本榨季全球 糖市供应过剩压力。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 芬兰启动欧洲首座商业化锂辉石矿山运营 短周期内仍以偏多思路看待。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展了 3205 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 稳地产政策可以理解为临时扰动，在其他利空出现之前，债市 难以持续下跌，部分时刻还会存在反弹动力。不过后续潜在的 风险因素仍然存在。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 巴西 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2026年02月26日 (原油) 铸造铝合金跟随沪铝波动，宏观驱动且铝价处于高位，铸造铝合金与沪铝价差季节性表现将持续弱 于往年。 (氧化铝) 夜盘时段，油价维持区间窄幅波动。EIA最新数据显示，上周美国原油库存增加1600万桶，创下 2023年2月以来最大单周增幅；库存总量升至4.358亿桶，为八个月以来的最高水平。前一日API数 据公布后我们曾提示美国原油库存超预期大幅增加对油价的利空影响总体有限。美伊第三轮谈判将 在26日于日内瓦举行，伊朗方面表示决心在最短时间内达成一项公平合理的协议。美国方面则持续 保持军事威慑，但当前冲突整体仍处于可控范围。总体来看，近期美伊地缘局势的演变仍是主导油 价波动的核心变量。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏强运行。美国贸易代表称正研究推进提升全球关税。地缘方面美伊新一轮谈判在即, 双方释放缓和信号但也保留军事行动选项。短期地缘和关税均处于关键节点，责金属等待进一步驱 动。 【铜】 隔夜铜价短线倾向震荡稳固在密集均线上方。贵金属与有色板块对美国关税不确定性的反映并不一 致，有色需求端主要关注关税相对低执行期，对国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Silver: Cautious, advised to be cautious about chasing high prices [1] - Copper: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] - Zinc: Cautious bullish, advised to be cautious about going long [1] - Lead: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Tin: Bullish, expected to be strong [1] - Aluminum: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Nickel: Bullish, expected to rebound [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish, advised to try long positions with a light position [1] - Polysilicon: Bearish, expected to be under pressure [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish, recommended to hold long positions [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks such as US tariff fluctuations and the Iran situation provide support for gold. In the long - term, central banks continue to buy gold, maintaining its strategic allocation value. Silver's industrial demand is increasing, and its financial hedging attributes are strengthened, but short - term participation is difficult [1][3]. - The relaxation of housing purchase restrictions in Shanghai boosts the property market, and with the approaching of the peak consumption season and the Two Sessions, copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term and remain optimistic in the long - term [1][5][7]. - The supply and demand of zinc are both weak, and inventory accumulation restricts the upside space. It is advisable to be cautiously bullish and wait for more macro guidance [1][8][10]. - The cost of alumina has stabilized at a low level. Although inventory has accumulated, the resumption of downstream enterprises after the holiday is expected to drive the short - term rebound of aluminum prices [1][11][13]. - Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances lead to a short - term rebound in nickel prices, while stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [1][15][17]. - The continuous destocking of lithium carbonate in the off - season, along with potential supply disruptions, drives up prices, and it is recommended to go long [1][19][21]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: COMEX gold and silver futures rose, and the decline of the US dollar index and the increase of gold ETF holdings reflect the strong demand for hedging [2]. - **Underlying Logic**: Uncertainties such as the US - Iran negotiation and Trump's tariff policy, as well as the "safety stock theory", enhance the value of gold and silver as hedging assets [3]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gold has a long - term upward trend. Short - term support levels are around 1120 for gold and 21000 for silver. Be vigilant against profit - taking risks [4]. Copper - **Market Performance**: The prices of Shanghai copper, LME copper, and COMEX copper all rose, and trading volume and open interest increased significantly. Inventory has accumulated, and the basis and premium have changed [5]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global copper mine supply is tight, and domestic copper smelting capacity growth has been curbed. High copper prices and the holiday effect have led to significant inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, take partial profits at high prices, and beware of price drops after the macro - sentiment fades. In the long - term, be optimistic about copper. The short - term price range for Shanghai copper is [101500, 105500] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [13000, 13500] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc prices showed a narrow - range oscillation. Trading volume and open interest increased, inventory changed, and the basis and premium also changed [8]. - **Underlying Logic**: Global zinc mine supply may shrink in 2026, and supply and demand are both weak during the holiday. Inventory has accumulated seasonally [9]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be cautiously bullish, pay attention to the post - holiday demand recovery rhythm, and wait for more macro guidance. In the long - term, try long positions on dips. The price range for Shanghai zinc is [24200, 25000] yuan/ton, and for LME zinc is [3300, 3400] US dollars/ton [10]. Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum and alumina futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [11]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. New electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to increase production steadily. Inventory is a short - term suppressing factor, and the alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips in the short - term, pay attention to inventory accumulation, and the main operating range is [22000 - 25000] [14]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel and stainless steel futures prices rose, and inventory and basis data changed [15]. - **Underlying Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continues. Indonesia's reduction of nickel production quotas and supply disturbances increase market concerns. Stainless steel is in the off - season with inventory accumulation [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, pay attention to Indonesian policies and stainless steel inventory changes, and the main operating range for nickel is [130000 - 150000] [18]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose, and the prices of spot lithium products also increased. Inventory decreased, and production decreased [19]. - **Underlying Logic**: Supply disruptions such as factory fires and export controls, as well as the expected increase in demand for replenishment, strengthen the expectation of supply tightening [21]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on dips, and the price range is [162000 - 180000] [22].

Australia’s coal mining industry remains a critical pillar of the national economy, with thermal coal accounting for more than 60% of total output and metallurgical coal comprising the remainder. Total coal production is estimated to have remained broadly flat in 2025 at 65.3 million tonnes (mt), reflecting only marginal growth over 2024. This stability was underpinned by the continued ramp-up of the Olive Downs Complex, which commenced operations in June 2023, alongside planned production increases at th ...

有色金属日报 | | 操作评级 | 2026年02月25日 | | --- | --- | --- | | 铜 | な女女 | 肖静 首席分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3047773 Z0014087 | | 氧化铝 | な女女 | 刘冬博 高级分析师 | | 铸造铝合金 文文文 | | F3062795 Z0015311 | | | 女女女 | 吴江 高级分析师 | | 铝 | ななな | F3085524 Z0016394 | | 镇及不锈钢 ☆☆☆ | | 张秀睿 中级分析师 | | 锡 | ななな | F03099436 Z0021022 | | 碳酸锂 | ななな | 孙芳芳 中级分析师 | | | | F03111330 Z0018905 | | 工业硅 | ななな | | | 多晶硅 | 女女女 | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【铜】 周三沪铜震荡收阳，短线倾向稳固在短期均线水平。SMM现铜102065元，上海贴水180元、广东贴水幅度扩至220 元。市场权衡国内节后旺季消费强弱并评估美国关税变动风险,且当下全球 ...