分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 晨会聚焦 证券研究报告-晨会聚焦 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 23 日 资料来源：聚源，中原证券研究所 -11% -5% 1% 7% 13% 18% 24% 30% 2024.12 2025.04 2025.08 2025.12 上证指数 深证成指 | 国内市场表现 | 指数名称 | 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌幅(%) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3,917.36 | 0.69 | 深证成指 | 13,332.73 | 1.47 | | | | 创业板指 | 2,022.77 | -0.47 | 沪深 | 300 | 4,611.62 | 0.95 | | | 上证 | 50 | 2,443.97 | -0.52 | 科创 | 50 | 891.46 | 0.14 | | 创业板 | 50 | 1,924.26 | -0.67 | 中证 | 100 | 4,471.83 | 1.04 ...

Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is at the bottom of the cycle in 2025, with both investment in cyclical sectors and thematic trends progressing simultaneously. Since Q3 2025, global manufacturing has shown signs of recovery, but demand growth is slowing, leading to a decline in the PPI of chemical products year-on-year [1][65] - On the demand side, the domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, while sales of new energy vehicles continue to grow significantly. Retail sales are stabilizing, supported by ongoing consumption promotion policies [1][65] - On the supply side, China has become a global leader in the chemical industry, while the manufacturing and chemical production capacity utilization rates in the EU have been declining, particularly in Germany, where the production of basic chemicals has been continuously decreasing [1][65] Group 1: Chemical Industry Overview - The chemical industry is experiencing a prolonged bottoming phase, with a three-year duration already observed. The potential for a turnaround may be approaching [1][65] - The PPI of chemical products has been under pressure, with year-on-year declines noted in major economies, including China, the EU, and Japan [9][74] - The domestic chemical industry is facing a situation of excess supply, which is exerting short-term pressure on prices, while the inventory cycle is still in a passive replenishment phase [1][65] Group 2: Demand Side Analysis - The domestic real estate market is at a cyclical low, with significant declines in new construction and sales figures. The cumulative sales area of new commercial housing in major cities has decreased by 11% year-on-year [18][25] - Sales of new energy vehicles in China have maintained high growth, with a year-on-year increase of 19% in the first eleven months of 2025, indicating strong market demand [25][28] - Retail sales in China have shown a steady improvement, with a growth rate of 4% year-on-year for the first eleven months of 2025, supported by consumption promotion initiatives [28][29] Group 3: Supply Side Analysis - China has replaced Europe and the US as the global leader in chemical production, with a year-on-year increase of 8% in output, while the EU and Germany have seen declines [30][36] - The production capacity in the EU has been declining, particularly in Germany, where the output of various basic chemicals has dropped significantly compared to 2019 levels [36][37] - The investment in basic chemical projects in China has turned negative, indicating a potential shift in the supply landscape as excess capacity begins to face clearing risks [1][65] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on low-valuation leading companies and sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics, including major players in the chemical industry such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others [3][67] - The fertilizer sector is expected to benefit from slowing capacity growth and increasing overseas demand, which may support price increases [66] - The tire market is showing signs of recovery, with domestic leading companies expanding their global production bases, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [66]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The chemical sector is expected to continue its differentiated trend in 2025, with recommendations to focus on synthetic biology, pesticides, chromatography media, sweeteners, vitamins, light hydrocarbon chemicals, COC polymers, and MDI [4][5] - The recent suspension of anti-dumping duties on titanium dioxide by India is anticipated to allow Chinese companies to regain market share lost to competitors during the duty period [35] - The closure of four factories by Westlake Group in the U.S. is a strategic move to enhance profitability in high-performance and basic materials [35] Industry Performance - The chemical sector ranked 5th in overall performance for the week of December 15-19, 2025, with a gain of 2.58%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.55 percentage points [3][20] - The polyurethane sub-sector showed the highest increase at 9.04%, while non-metallic materials III experienced a decline of 2.29% [21] Specific Industry Trends - Synthetic biology is at a pivotal moment, with low-energy products expected to see significant growth due to energy structure adjustments [5] - The third-generation refrigerants are entering a high prosperity cycle as supply constraints tighten and demand remains stable [6] - The electronic specialty gases market presents substantial opportunities for domestic companies due to high technical barriers and increasing demand from semiconductor and photovoltaic sectors [7][8] - The trend towards light hydrocarbon chemicals is becoming global, with a shift from heavy naphtha to lighter feedstocks like ethane and propane [8] - The COC polymer industry is accelerating its domestic industrialization, driven by local demand and supply chain security concerns [9] - Potash prices are expected to rebound as major producers reduce output, leading to a tightening supply situation [10] - The MDI market is characterized by oligopoly, with a favorable supply structure anticipated as demand recovers [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral investment rating for the oil and petrochemical industry, with specific recommendations for various companies based on their performance and market conditions [9]. Core Insights - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Venezuela and U.S. sanctions are expected to support international oil prices, despite recent declines [6]. - The downstream polyester sector is showing signs of tightening supply and improving demand, leading to positive expectations for companies like Tongkun Co. and Wankai New Materials [9]. - The report highlights the potential for refining companies to improve cost structures due to falling oil prices and competitive dynamics in the market [9]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Trends - As of December 19, Brent crude oil prices closed at $60.47 per barrel, down 1.06% from the previous week, while WTI prices fell 1.60% to $56.52 per barrel [16]. - The report notes a significant drop in Venezuelan oil production and exports due to U.S. sanctions, which may create upward pressure on oil prices [6][8]. Company Recommendations - Recommended companies include: - **Tongkun Co.** for polyester filament - **Wankai New Materials** for bottle-grade PET - **Hengli Petrochemical**, **Rongsheng Petrochemical**, and **Oriental Rainbow** for large refining operations [9]. - **China National Petroleum** and **CNOOC** for their high dividend yields [9]. - **CNOOC Services** and **Haiyou Engineering** for offshore oil services [9]. - **Satellite Chemical** for its competitive advantage in ethane-to-ethylene projects [9]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the overall oil price is expected to stabilize at a neutral level for 2026, with improving operational quality for oil companies [9]. - The upstream exploration and production sector remains robust, with high capital expenditures anticipated for offshore services [9]. Valuation Metrics - The report provides valuation metrics for key companies in the oil and petrochemical sector, including market capitalization, EPS, PE, and PB ratios [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, highlighting potential investment opportunities in various segments [3]. Core Insights - The blockade of Venezuelan oil tankers due to U.S. sanctions is expected to support international oil prices, with Venezuelan crude oil production and exports significantly declining [5][6]. - The upstream sector is experiencing a downward trend in oil prices, with Brent crude futures at $60.47 per barrel, reflecting a decrease of 1.06% [16]. - The refining sector shows mixed signals, with a decline in overseas refined oil crack spreads but an increase in olefin spreads, indicating potential profitability improvements [49][51]. - The polyester sector is witnessing tightening supply and demand, with expectations of improved market conditions in the medium term [9]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Venezuelan crude oil production in November was 934 thousand barrels per day, down 2.3% month-on-month, with exports at 653 thousand barrels per day, down 16.7% [5][6]. - As of December 19, the U.S. oil rig count was 542, a decrease of 6 rigs week-on-week and down 47 rigs year-on-year [31] [28]. Refining Sector - The Singapore refining margin for major products was $16.62 per barrel, down $3.14 from the previous week [51]. - The domestic refining product crack spread has improved slightly, indicating potential for profitability as economic conditions recover [49]. Polyester Sector - The PTA price has decreased to 4615.6 CNY per ton, down 0.53% week-on-week, while the PX to naphtha spread has increased, suggesting a potential for improved margins in the polyester chain [9]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality firms in the polyester sector such as Tongkun Co. and Wan Kai New Materials, as well as major refining companies like Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical [9]. - The report suggests maintaining a neutral outlook on oil prices for 2026, with a focus on companies with high dividend yields such as China Petroleum and China National Offshore Oil Corporation [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Pure benzene is in a pattern of high inventory and weak demand in the short term, and its price is mainly in a weak oscillation [3] - Styrene shows a pattern of increasing supply, weakening demand, and slowing inventory reduction, and its short - term price will maintain a weak oscillation [4] Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Daily Market Summary (1) Fundamental Aspects - **Price**: On December 19, the styrene main contract closed up 0.27% at 6,402 yuan/ton, and the pure benzene main contract closed up 0.24% at 5,394 yuan/ton [2] - **Cost**: On December 19, Brent crude oil closed at $56.0 per barrel (+$0.2 per barrel), WTI crude oil closed at $59.8 per barrel (+$0.1 per barrel), and the spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5,280 yuan/ton (+5 yuan/ton) [2] - **Inventory**: For styrene, the inventory in East China ports was 13.47 tons (-1.21 tons), and the factory inventory was 17.10 tons (-0.76 tons). For pure benzene, the inventory in East China ports was 26.00 tons (+0.00 tons) [2] - **Supply**: The supply of styrene increased marginally, with the national styrene factory operating rate at 69.13% (+0.84 percentage points). For pure benzene, the domestic operating rate was 74.94% (-0.17 percentage points), and the hydro - benzene operating rate was 55.99% (+3.05 percentage points) [2] - **Demand**: The downstream of styrene entered the off - season, with the operating rates of EPS, PS, and ABS dropping to 51.81%, 54.50%, and 70.10% respectively. For non - styrene downstream, the operating rates of CPL, phenol, and aniline declined significantly [3] (2) Views - **Pure benzene**: The peak of domestic arrivals has ended, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. Overseas, the gasoline cracking spread is weakening, and the demand side is weak. Overall, the price is in a weak oscillation [3] - **Styrene**: The inventory is still decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The supply pressure is emerging, and the demand is weakening. The price is in a weak oscillation [4] 2. Industrial Chain Data Monitoring (1) Styrene and Pure Benzene Prices - On December 19, the styrene futures main contract rose 0.27% to 6,402 yuan/ton, and the spot price fell 0.59% to 6,716 yuan/ton. The pure benzene futures main contract rose 0.24% to 5,394 yuan/ton, and the East China spot price rose 0.09% to 5,280 yuan/ton [6] (2) Styrene and Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, styrene production in China increased by 2.32% to 34.2 tons, and pure benzene production decreased by 1.70% to 43.9 tons. Styrene port inventory in Jiangsu decreased by 2.19% to 16.1 tons, and factory inventory decreased by 7.49% to 17.6 tons. Pure benzene port inventory in the whole country increased by 36.59% to 22.4 tons [7] (3) Operating Rate - From November 28 to December 5, 2025, the operating rate of styrene in pure benzene downstream increased by 1.56 percentage points to 68.9%, and that of caprolactam decreased by 7.53 percentage points to 79.2%. For styrene downstream, the operating rate of EPS increased by 1.61 percentage points to 56.4%, that of ABS decreased by 2.90 percentage points to 68.3%, and that of PS increased by 1.40 percentage points to 59.0% [8] 3. Industry News - The ECB President Lagarde said the uncertainty of inflation outlook is higher than usual [9] - The US core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the lowest level since 2021 [9] - The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 224,000, lower than market expectations [9] - Fed's Goolsbee said there is a significant room for interest rate cuts as long as inflation is clearly returning to the 2% target [9] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides charts on pure benzene price, styrene price, styrene - pure benzene spread, SM import pure benzene cost vs. domestic pure benzene cost, styrene port inventory, styrene factory inventory, pure benzene port inventory, ABS inventory, and the weekly capacity utilization rates of caprolactam, phenol, and aniline [14][19][23][25][30]

Core Viewpoint - The recent report from Zhongyin Securities highlights a decline in international oil prices and suggests focusing on undervalued leading companies in the chemical industry, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply in related sub-industries, and the importance of self-sufficiency in electronic materials and certain new energy materials companies amid rising prices [1][7]. Group 1: Oil Price Trends - International oil prices have decreased, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $56.52 per barrel, a weekly decline of 1.60%, and Brent crude oil futures at $59.82 per barrel, down 2.13% [3]. - U.S. crude oil production averaged 13.843 million barrels per day for the week ending December 12, a decrease of 10,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 239,000 barrels compared to the same period last year [3]. - U.S. oil demand averaged 20.573 million barrels per day, down 50,900 barrels from the previous week, with gasoline demand increasing by 62,200 barrels to 9.078 million barrels per day [3]. Group 2: Chemical Industry Price Movements - Among 100 tracked chemical products, 42 saw price increases, 37 experienced declines, and 21 remained stable during the week [2]. - The average price of isopropanol fell by 4.97% week-on-week to 6,612 yuan per ton, and the average price of glyphosate decreased by 1.58% to 24,901 yuan per ton [4][5]. Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The SW basic chemical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 24.74, at the 73.47% historical percentile, while the price-to-book ratio is 2.24, at the 55.99% historical percentile [7]. - Recommended investment themes include focusing on undervalued leading companies, the impact of "anti-involution" on supply, and the growth potential in semiconductor materials, OLED materials, and new energy materials [7]. - Specific companies recommended for investment include Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and China Petroleum, among others [7][8].

Group 1 - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 19186, 14721, and 14693 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -293, +93, and +234 CNY/ton [1] - The gross margins for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 6149, 2684, and 2769 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -240, +145, and +3 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - The average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are 1324, 4166, 522, and 3790 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of -102, -122, -8, and -166 CNY/ton [2] - The average price for polyethylene is 6933 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 113 CNY/ton, while the theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene are 625, 1291, and -132 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +41, -44, and +104 CNY/ton [2] - The average price for polypropylene is 6000 CNY/ton, with a week-on-week decrease of 70 CNY/ton, and the theoretical profits for PDH, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polypropylene are -758, 861, and -393 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +65, -25, and +120 CNY/ton [2] Group 3 - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2346, 1702, 3739, and 2422 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +29, -3, -75, and +15 CNY/ton [2] - The gross margins for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 331, 33, -396, and 225 CNY/ton respectively, with week-on-week changes of +53, +10, -49, and -2 CNY/ton [2] Group 4 - Related listed companies in the chemical sector include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, New Hope Liuhe, and Andisu [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [67]. Core Insights - The report highlights that Wanhua Chemical has announced price increases for MDI and TDI in certain regions, reflecting a positive trend in pricing within the polyurethane sector [1]. - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported at 19,186, 14,721, and 14,693 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -293, +93, and +234 CNY/ton compared to the previous week [3]. - The report provides detailed insights into various segments of the chemical industry, including polyurethane, oil and gas, and coal chemical sectors, with specific price movements and profit margins outlined for each segment [3][13]. Summary by Sections Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are 19,186, 14,721, and 14,693 CNY/ton, with respective profit margins of 6,149, 2,684, and 2,769 CNY/ton [3][17][19]. Oil and Gas Sector - The average prices for ethane, propane, and coal are 1,324, 4,166, and 522 CNY/ton, with changes of -102, -122, and -8 CNY/ton respectively [3][23][28]. - The average price for polyethylene is reported at 6,933 CNY/ton, with a decrease of 113 CNY/ton from the previous week [3][31]. Coal Chemical Sector - The average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,346, 1,702, 3,739, and 2,422 CNY/ton, with respective profit margins of 331, 33, -396, and 225 CNY/ton [3][37][45][46]. Animal Nutrition Sector - The average prices for VA and VE are reported at 62.5 and 55.5 CNY/kg, with VE showing a 30% increase [3][53][59].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The propylene 03 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton in the short term. The recent weakening of the futures market, while the spot market remains stable, is mainly due to the loose supply - demand of propylene itself and the continuous suppression from the PP end. Short - term policy news may drive valuation repair, but the sustainability of the rebound depends on the actual improvement of the fundamentals [2]. - The near - term trading is affected by the overall loose fundamentals and the weak PP trend. The long - term outlook is bearish due to expected new production capacity, the imbalance between PP terminal demand and supply growth, and cost - side pressure [5][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Macro - sentiment and policy disturbances: The recent market is influenced by "anti - involution" news, leading to a short - term low - level rebound of some chemical products. The sustainability of the rebound remains to be seen [1]. - Stable spot supply - demand: This week, the overall supply - demand gap changed little. On the supply side, Guangzhou Petrochemical restarted and Jinhai Chemical had maintenance, with little change in overall production and capacity utilization. On the demand side, there was a slight increase. In the Shandong market, supply increased and demand decreased, causing a slight price decline [1]. - Suppression from major downstream PP: PP supply is abundant, and the price spread between PP and propylene has significantly shrunk. The weak PP price continues to suppress the propylene market. Short - term "anti - involution" may cause a phased rebound in the futures market, mainly for sentiment repair [1]. - PDH profit pressure: The price of propane in the international market remains strong. The PDH industry is in a continuous loss state, and attention should be paid to the possible negative feedback caused by profit contraction [2]. 1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - **Market positioning**: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the PL03 price range at 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The overall trend is still weakly fluctuating, and it may rebound slightly due to some macro factors, but the short - term expectation is a weakly fluctuating trend. Follow - up attention should be paid to policy implementation and PDH unit maintenance [15]. - **Basis, calendar spread, and hedging arbitrage strategies**: - Basis strategy: The basis is expected to shrink as the spot price weakened slightly this week while the futures market was fluctuating [16]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider expanding the PP - PL spread on dips and the PL/PG ratio on dips, but stay on the sidelines for now. Pay attention to PP unit maintenance [17]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Propylene price range forecast: The price of propylene is expected to be in the range of 5,500 - 6,000 yuan/ton. The current 20 - day rolling volatility is 0.1319, and the historical percentage of volatility in the past 3 years is 0.7378 [19]. - Hedging strategies: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short - sell propylene futures at high prices to lock in profits and sell call options to collect premiums. For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy propylene futures at low prices to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to collect premiums [21]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Key Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive information**: Six departments issued a notice to promote the clean and efficient utilization of new and existing coal development projects and eliminate backward production capacity and processes. Geopolitical tensions may support oil prices [22]. - **Negative information**: Some PDH units under maintenance will restart, and the PDH operating rate has returned to a relatively high level of 75%. The PP market remains in a state of high supply [23]. 2.2 Next Week's Key Events - On December 22, China's December LPR will be announced. On December 23, the revised value of the annualized quarterly - on - quarter growth rate of the US real GDP in Q3 will be released [27]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation 3.1 Price, Volume, and Capital Analysis - **Domestic market**: The PL03 contract fluctuated this week. The net positions of major profitable seats decreased, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net long positions of profitable seats, foreign investors decreased slightly, and the net short positions of retail investors increased slightly. Technically, the daily - line chart shows a downward trend, suppressed by the middle Bollinger Band. In the short - term, it fluctuated in the range of 5,650 - 5,800 [25]. - **Basis and calendar spread structure**: This week, the basis of propylene 03 was 220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan/ton compared with last week. The 02 - 03 calendar spread was 20 yuan/ton, a decrease of 35 yuan/ton compared with last week [29]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Up - and Down - stream Profit Tracking - **Upstream profit**: The gross profit of major refineries this week was 614 yuan/ton (- 31), and that of Shandong local refineries was 472 yuan/ton (+ 29). The operating rate at the cracking end changed little [31]. - **Mid - stream profit**: The propane cracking profit declined significantly, and the profitability of LPG cracking decreased. The PDH profit based on FEI was - 289 yuan/ton (- 46), and that based on CP was - 431 yuan/ton (+ 122). The PDH industry remained in a loss state [32]. - **Down - stream profit**: The price spreads between PP拉丝/PP powder and propylene rebounded slightly. The profit of the chlorohydrin method for propylene oxide decreased. The overall loss of acrylonitrile was still large. The profit of acrylic acid weakened. The profit of butanol was compressed, and the profit of octanol recovered at a low level but was still under pressure. The profit of phenol - acetone weakened [34]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking - The price spread between China and South Korea for propylene has been stable recently. The CFR China price is 740 US dollars (- 5) [49]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Projection 5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Projection in the Shandong Market - This week, supply increased and demand decreased slightly in the Shandong market, and the spot price declined. The increase in supply mainly came from the复产 of PDH units, and the decrease in demand was due to the maintenance of Jineng and Yulong in the PP sector [51]. 5.2 Market Supply and Projection - This week, there were both start - ups and shut - downs. The overall operating rate of propylene was 74.11% (- 0.1%), still at a high level. Guangzhou Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton steam cracking unit restarted, and Jinhai Chemical's 210,000 - ton steam cracking unit was under maintenance [54]. 5.3 Demand and Projection - This week, the price spreads between PP granules/powder and propylene rebounded slightly, and the operating rate of the granule end remained stable. The price spread of PP powder also rebounded slightly but was still at a low level, and the number of maintenance units increased. For other downstream products, the price of propylene oxide declined, the profit of the chlorohydrin method decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The production of acrylonitrile changed little. The operating rate of butanol and octanol increased. The capacity utilization rate of acrylic acid was at a phased high. The production of phenol - acetone changed due to unit restarts and maintenance. The demand in the Shandong region increased this week, mainly due to the复产 and increased load of PP, PO, acrylonitrile, and octanol [63][78].