1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market is strongly influenced by capital sentiment. On the supply side, rumors from overseas and Jiangxi mining areas continue to disrupt the supply outlook. On the demand side, while there are optimistic expectations for energy storage demand, there is short - term pressure from the decline in material factory production schedules. The industry's inventory shows an early signal of turning from destocking to restocking, introducing new variables to the market sentiment. The price is expected to move upward, and the recommended strategy is to consider range - bound trading for the LC2605 contract, with a reference range of (130,000, 150,000), or to buy call options [10][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On January 4, 2026, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", indicating that lithium resource development will become more "green and intensive" and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid waste treatment capabilities. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised market concerns again. - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and lead innovation, and comprehensively rectify the "involution - style" competition during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. - On December 25, 2025, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would conduct production - reduction maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 to 20,000 tons. - On December 24, 2025, it was reported that the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information for the project. - On December 16, 2025, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining licenses [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly Views - **Market Review**: From January 2 to January 9, 2026, the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 139,100 yuan/ton on January 9, a 18.64% increase from January 2. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 143,420 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.96%. The open interest of the main - month contract is about 510,900 lots. - **Supply**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, a small number of lithium salt factories plan to conduct maintenance, but the actual impact on production is limited, and most enterprises maintain stable production. The overall operating rate of domestic lithium salt factories remains high, and new projects in production continue to increase output. Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt the stability of overseas lithium resource supply. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" has tightened the mine approval standards, affecting the domestic mining supply outlook. - **Demand**: The downstream production schedule declined. The demand outlook for the energy - storage sector remains strong. Some lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate producers plan to conduct maintenance, and the power - battery industry is in a seasonal off - peak, suppressing short - term raw material procurement demand. Some downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises have confirmed price increases and propose that the settlement price of lithium carbonate follow the futures trend. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high - price spot lithium carbonate and mainly purchase for rigid demand. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate has risen following the futures price of lithium carbonate. Although the import volume of lithium concentrate is sufficient, miners are strongly inclined to hold prices, and the price of spodumene remains firm. The cost side provides rigid support for the spot price. Integrated enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have considerable profits at the current high - price level, while processing enterprises relying on purchased raw materials have relatively thin profits. The industry's overall inventory level is low, and this week it turned from continuous destocking to restocking. Lithium salt factories are more willing to sell spot goods, and their inventory has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand, and the trading sector is more willing to sell. The futures warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, reaching 20,000 tons. - **Outlook**: As mentioned above. - **Strategy**: As mentioned above [10]. 3.2 Industry Structure - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, and recycled lithium), lithium salt products (carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, energy storage, etc.) [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a 17.96% increase from the previous period; the trading volume was 469,479 lots, a 19.63% increase; the open interest was 510,874 lots, a 4.22% increase; and the total number of warehouse receipts was 25,360 lots, a 25.04% increase [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - There is a seasonal chart and a historical price chart of the lithium carbonate spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total lithium carbonate inventory was 109,405 tons, a 0.0045% increase from the previous period; the market inventory was 65,949 tons, a 5.4% decrease; the factory inventory was 18,096 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and the registered warehouse receipt volume was 25,360 tons, a 25.04% increase [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Supply - Side: Production, Capacity, and Import - Export of Lithium Carbonate - There are charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as its net import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [42]. 3.6.2 Supply - Side: Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) - From 2025 - 12 to 2026 - 12, multiple companies in different regions such as Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. have planned new lithium - carbonate production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. 3.6.3 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate imports, including those from Argentina and Chile, as well as annual cumulative import charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [48]. 3.6.4 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials), but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [58]. 3.6.5 Supply - Side: Spodumene Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly spodumene imports from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as charts of monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [69]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Demand - Side: Overall Demand Situation - There are charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and seasonal chart of monthly power - battery production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [82]. 3.7.2 Demand - Side: Power Batteries - There are charts of monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the proportion of power - battery installation volume of each vehicle type and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [88]. 3.7.3 Demand - Side: Output of Each Material - There are charts of the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a long - term supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995, including data on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of downstream products, and inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [107].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in the sector [7]. Core Insights - The report highlights that weak employment data in the U.S. has raised expectations for interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metals which have shown a rebound after initial pressure [1]. - The copper market is facing supply disruptions and tight inventory in non-U.S. regions, which may lead to price volatility [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to experience strong fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and improving macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Nickel prices are anticipated to remain volatile due to policy uncertainties in Indonesia affecting supply [4]. - Tin prices are projected to experience strong fluctuations driven by macroeconomic factors and funding sentiment [5]. - Lithium prices are expected to remain high due to seasonal demand despite a slight decrease in production [6]. - Cobalt prices are likely to continue rising due to tight supply conditions and delayed export quotas from the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Precious metals are benefiting from liquidity easing, with a focus on companies such as Xinyi Silver, Shengda Resources, and Zijin Mining [1]. Copper - The copper market is experiencing an increase in global inventory, with concerns about supply tightness in non-U.S. regions due to disruptions in mining operations [2]. Aluminum - The aluminum sector is seeing a slight increase in production capacity, with geopolitical tensions contributing to a positive market sentiment [3]. Nickel - Nickel prices have shown significant fluctuations due to supply disruptions and policy changes in Indonesia, with a focus on companies like Huayou Cobalt and Lygend Resources [4]. Tin - Tin prices are influenced by macroeconomic expectations and demand from emerging sectors, with companies like Hunan Tin and Yunnan Tin being highlighted [5]. Lithium - Lithium prices are supported by strong demand despite seasonal production declines, with companies such as Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium being recommended [6]. Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and regulatory changes in the Democratic Republic of Congo, with companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium being of interest [10].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - Aluminum prices have reached new highs, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum continues to expand [3] - Copper prices are expected to experience high-level fluctuations due to inventory accumulation and supply disruptions [5] - Lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply and demand dynamics leading to an upward trend in lithium prices [76] - Cobalt prices are expected to continue rising due to tight raw material supply [88] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The U.S. December ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported at 47.9, below expectations [9] - The U.S. December non-farm employment figure was 50,000, also below expectations [9] 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with an 8.56% increase compared to a 3.82% increase in the index [11] - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance [11] 3. Valuation Changes - The TTM PE for the non-ferrous metals sector is 30.92, with a change of 1.69 [21] - The PB for the sector is 3.81, with a change of 0.20 [21] 4. Industrial Metals - Copper prices increased by 3.84% for London copper and 3.23% for Shanghai copper [26] - Aluminum prices rose by 5.02% for London aluminum and 5.47% for Shanghai aluminum, with aluminum enterprise profits increasing by 23.33% to 8,463 CNY/ton [36] - Lead and zinc prices also saw increases, with lead prices up by 1.57% and zinc prices up by 0.38% [47] 5. Energy Metals - Lithium prices saw significant increases, with lithium carbonate rising by 18.14% to 140,000 CNY/ton [76] - Cobalt prices increased by 2.61% to 25.53 USD/pound, while domestic cobalt prices fell by 6.53% to 458,000 CNY/ton [88]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector, highlighting the initiation of a spring rally with significant price increases in metals [2]. Core Views - The spring rally is believed to have started, with aluminum prices showing strong elasticity. As of January 9, the SHFE aluminum closing price was 24,385 CNY/ton, a 6.4% increase from December 31, 2025. The report anticipates that aluminum prices may rise further due to rigid supply constraints and increasing demand in new sectors [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the electrolytic aluminum sector, predicting average profits to exceed 7,500 CNY/ton, supported by improved cash flow and stable profitability among companies [4]. - A strike at the Mantoverde copper mine in Chile could impact copper production, potentially exacerbating supply tightness in 2026 [5]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - **Aluminum Market**: The report notes a significant increase in aluminum prices and a rise in profits, driven by supply constraints and new demand areas. The global aluminum inventory remains low, providing strong support for prices [3]. - **Copper Market**: The report highlights a rise in copper inventories and recommends several companies in the copper sector, including Zijin Mining and Western Mining [6]. New Energy Metals and Minor Metals - **Cobalt Market**: The report indicates that cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are delayed, leading to a potential price increase. The average price of electrolytic cobalt rose to 460,000 CNY/ton, a 1.1% increase from December 31, 2025 [7][12]. - **Company Performance**: Huayou Cobalt's 2025 earnings forecast exceeds market expectations, with a projected net profit increase of 40.8% to 55.2% year-on-year [14]. Industry Data - **Market Performance**: The non-ferrous metals sector has shown strong absolute and relative performance over the past year, with a 110.2% increase over 12 months [9]. - **Stock Market Data**: The total market capitalization of the sector is approximately 457.86 billion CNY, with 126 listed companies [8].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the equity bottom is continuing to recover, suggesting a positive outlook for the steel industry [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 4,120, with a weekly increase of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,752, with a weekly increase of 3.5% and a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,280 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 108 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 864,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 389,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,280,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 750,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach 195,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the recovery in demand for steel products, indicating a positive trend in the market [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel, Baosteel, and New Steel [8]. Core Insights - The steel market is experiencing a recovery phase, with the national average daily pig iron production increasing by 21,000 tons to 2,296,000 tons, and overall steel production showing a slight increase [11]. - Total steel inventory has shifted from a decrease to an increase, with a week-on-week rise of 1.8%, indicating a change in market dynamics [23]. - Apparent consumption of steel has weakened on a month-on-month basis, particularly in rebar, which saw a significant drop in demand [38]. - The report highlights that while steel prices are stable with slight increases, the immediate profit margins are declining, suggesting a need for caution in pricing strategies [67]. Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The average daily pig iron production has increased, indicating a rise in production capacity utilization, which is currently at 86.1%, up by 0.8 percentage points from the previous week [17]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of five major steel products has increased to 8.652 million tons, reflecting a 1.7% week-on-week rise and a 10.7% year-on-year increase [25]. - **Demand**: Apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 5.3% week-on-week, with rebar consumption dropping by 12.7% [48]. Price and Profitability - The report notes that the current steel price index is 122.5, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 0.4% but a year-on-year decrease of 2.4% [67]. - The immediate profit margins for long-process rebar and hot-rolled coils are negative, indicating that production costs are exceeding sales prices [69]. Key Companies and Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that are expected to benefit from the energy sector's growth, such as Jiu Li Special Materials and Changbao Steel, as well as those involved in pipeline construction and steel production [8].

Policy Planning - The investment主体 for the 2026-2027 independent energy storage station project in Inner Mongolia's Erlianghaote has been announced, consisting of a consortium including Guotian (Inner Mongolia) New Energy Technology Holding Group, Beiwang New Energy, and Inner Mongolia New Vision Group [1][16] - Guangzhou has released a plan to accelerate the construction of a strong advanced manufacturing city from 2024 to 2035, focusing on cultivating five strategic leading industries, including new energy and new energy storage [1][17] - Jiangxi Province is promoting energy-saving measures for data centers, supporting the use of new technologies such as liquid cooling and new energy storage [2][18] - Hefei's 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes strengthening the energy storage industry and promoting new energy scenarios [2][19] Key Enterprises - Ampere Dragon plans to raise up to 544 million yuan through a private placement to enhance its supply chain for energy storage BMS core components [2][20] - Zhejiang Zhongze Precision Technology has received approval to list on the New Third Board, focusing on precision components for lithium batteries and energy storage [3][21] - EVE Energy has completed a capital increase of approximately 572 million yuan for its subsidiary EVE Asia to support its sustainable development [4][22] - Tianyong Intelligent Equipment expects a net profit of 10 to 15 million yuan for 2025, marking a turnaround from previous losses [4][23] - Trina Storage has signed a significant contract for a 100MW/400MWh independent energy storage project in Hebei, showcasing its competitive product Elementa King 2 [4][24] Material Dynamics - Dazhong Mining plans to invest approximately 3.688 billion yuan in a lithium mining and carbonate production project with an annual capacity of 2000 million tons and 80,000 tons respectively [5][25] - Guoxuan High-Tech has commenced a project for the annual production of 200,000 tons of positive electrode materials and 10,000 tons of negative electrode materials in Anhui [5][26] Project Progress - The Three Gorges Group's Xinjiang Jimsar all-vanadium flow battery energy storage station has achieved full-capacity operation, marking a significant breakthrough in large-capacity, long-duration energy storage technology [6][27] - Shangshu New Energy's 400MW/800MWh grid-side shared energy storage project is under active construction, with a total building area of 9,000 square meters [6][28] - The Starry New Energy's 250MW/1000MWh independent energy storage project has successfully completed commissioning and integration into the grid [6][31] Overseas News - Germany added 7.3 GWh of new energy storage capacity in 2025, setting a record, with home storage systems accounting for about 80% [6][36] - Saudi Arabia has cumulatively tendered 64 GW of renewable energy projects and 30 GWh of energy storage systems, with 8 GWh already connected to the grid [6][37]

Market Overview - The steel raw materials sector increased by 1.22% on January 9, with Vanadium Titanium Co. leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4120.43, up 0.92%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14120.15, up 1.15% [1] Stock Performance - Key stocks in the steel raw materials sector showed the following performance: - Steel Titanium Co. (000629) closed at 3.58, up 2.58% with a trading volume of 3.1696 million shares and a turnover of 1.133 billion [1] - Ordos (600295) closed at 15.80, up 2.53% with a trading volume of 319,600 shares and a turnover of 487 million [1] - Fangda Carbon (600516) closed at 6.04, up 2.03% with a trading volume of 1.1582 million shares and a turnover of 694 million [1] - Other notable stocks include Baodi Mining (601121), Guangdong Mingzhu (600382), and Jinling Mining (000655) with varying performance [1] Capital Flow - The steel raw materials sector saw a net inflow of 90.78 million in main funds, while retail funds experienced a net outflow of 39.86 million [1] - Detailed capital flow for key stocks includes: - Steel Titanium Co. had a main fund net inflow of 99.1553 million, with retail outflows of 76.8031 million [2] - Fangda Carbon recorded a main fund net inflow of 44.3459 million, with retail outflows of 35.7318 million [2] - Baodi Mining had a main fund net inflow of 14.6982 million, with retail outflows of 7.7481 million [2] - Other stocks like HeSteel Resources (000923) and Guangdong Mingzhu (600382) showed mixed capital flows [2]

Core Insights - The A-share market saw significant growth in 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index increasing by 18.41%, 29.87%, and 49.57% respectively, outperforming 2024 [2][25] - The top ten performing stocks in 2025, focusing on high-growth sectors, showed remarkable price increases, with six companies rising over 200%, two over 300%, and two over 400% [3][25] Group 1: Top Performing Companies - **Giant Network (002558.SZ)**: Achieved a stock price increase of 241.94% in the gaming industry, driven by strong demand and successful game launches, with a revenue of 3.368 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.417 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 [4][5][26] - **Kaimet Gas (002549.SZ)**: Experienced a stock price increase of 246.17% in the environmental and atmospheric governance sector, with a revenue of 485 million yuan and a net profit of 75.4 million yuan, largely due to the growth in the specialty gas segment [6][28] - **Hezhong Intelligent (603011.SH)**: Saw a stock price increase of 246.64% in the specialized equipment industry, benefiting from the global fusion industry growth and securing a 209 million yuan order for vacuum chambers [8][29] - **China Satellite (600118.SH)**: Recorded a stock price increase of 248.44% in the aerospace equipment sector, with a revenue of 3.102 billion yuan and a net profit of 14.81 million yuan, capitalizing on the booming commercial aerospace industry [10][31] - **Dazhong Mining (001203.SZ)**: Achieved a stock price increase of 253.93% in the steel raw materials sector, focusing on lithium mining with significant resource potential [12][33] - **Taotao Automotive (301345.SZ)**: Experienced a stock price increase of 281.48% in the automotive services sector, with a revenue of 2.773 billion yuan and a net profit of 607 million yuan, primarily from overseas markets [14][35] - **Sry New Materials (688102.SH)**: Saw a stock price increase of 339.23% in the new materials sector, with a revenue of 1.174 billion yuan and a net profit of 108 million yuan, benefiting from the commercial aerospace sector [16][37] - **Aerospace Development (000547.SZ)**: Achieved a stock price increase of 352.19% in the defense and military electronics sector, with a revenue growth of 42.59% and a net profit increase of 12.38% [18][40] - **Haixia Innovation (300300.SZ)**: Recorded a stock price increase of 429.23% in the IT services sector, focusing on smart city projects and data services [20][41] - **Pingtan Development (000592.SZ)**: Achieved a stock price increase of 436.59% in the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector, with a net profit of 31.23 million yuan, benefiting from cross-border e-commerce initiatives [22][42]

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