1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings were provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold is in a corrective phase, with potential for further downside but increasing interest from bottom - fishing funds. The market is awaiting the results of Sino - US negotiations and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data [12]. - The stock market was boosted by expectations of incremental policies from the Fourth Plenary Session, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will remain the focus, and there is a need to strengthen domestic demand expansion [2]. - The decline in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to an increase in market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Intel's improved financial results have boosted the technology sector, and Sino - US trade negotiations have increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise. Investors are advised to look for opportunities to buy on dips [25]. - The price of cotton is affected by factors such as new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices, and investors are advised to buy on dips [33]. - The pig market is expected to experience seasonal demand improvement, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year. Investors are advised to look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts [34]. - The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and investors are advised to wait and see, focusing on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [38]. - The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term. Investors are advised to buy on dips [49]. - The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived. Investors are advised to wait and see [73]. - The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [83]. 3. Summaries by Directory 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - News: Sino - US trade negotiations will be held in Malaysia from October 24 - 27 [12]. - Comment: Gold prices rebounded slightly but are still in a corrective phase. The market is awaiting negotiation results and APEC meetings, as well as US CPI data. - Investment Advice: Gold is expected to be in an oscillatory phase with potential for further downside. Observe the support at the $4000 level [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - News: US Senate Democrats blocked a Republican bill to pay military and federal employees during the government shutdown; US banking reserves decreased to $2.93 trillion; Trump plans to expand drug - fighting targets to land [13][14][15]. - Comment: The decrease in US banking reserves provides a basis for the Fed to stop shrinking its balance sheet, leading to increased market risk appetite and a volatile US dollar [16]. - Investment Advice: The US dollar index is expected to be volatile [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks in Malaysia from October 24 - 27; the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique [18][19]. - Comment: The stock market was boosted by policy expectations, but trading volume declined slightly. Industrial policies will be the focus, and domestic demand expansion needs to be strengthened [2]. - Investment Advice: Allocate evenly among stock indices [20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - News: Sino - US will hold trade talks; Intel's Q3 revenue increased by 3% year - on - year, and it returned to profitability [22]. - Comment: Intel's results improved the technology sector, and Sino - US negotiations increased market risk appetite. However, the negotiation process may be bumpy, and market volatility may remain high [22]. - Investment Advice: The US stock market will be volatile in the short term due to Sino - US negotiation news but should be treated with a bullish outlook overall [23]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - News: The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee released its communique; the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 212.5 billion yuan [24]. - Comment: The bond market may face short - term downward pressure, but the risk of continuous decline is low. After November, there is potential for the bond market to rise [25]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips [26]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - News: EU clothing import growth declined in August; CCI cotton procurement in India is accelerating; Xinjiang cotton purchase prices are rising [27][29][30]. - Comment: The price of cotton is affected by new cotton listings, downstream orders, and Sino - US trade negotiations. The upside space is limited [30]. - Investment Advice: The upside space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited. Monitor new cotton acquisitions, downstream orders, and Sino - US negotiations [31]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - News: The Indonesian military seized palm plantations, affecting 30% of the country's palm oil - growing area [32]. - Comment: Concerns about palm oil supply in Indonesia have led to a rebound in prices [33]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - News: Wens Co., Ltd. reported a net profit of 5.256 billion yuan in the first three quarters; Tangrenshen is implementing its production plan [33][34]. - Comment: Seasonal demand improvement may lead to a short - term rebound in pig prices, but the supply surplus will continue until the first quarter of next year [34]. - Investment Advice: Look for short - selling opportunities in the near - term contracts and continue to monitor the reverse spread strategy [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - News: The price of red dates in Hebei's Cui'erzhuang market is stable; Xinjiang red dates are in the drying stage, and the acquisition price will be determined in the next week [36][37]. - Comment: The price of red dates is in a volatile state, and the main trading logic is not clear [38]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and focus on price negotiations and acquisition progress in the production areas [39]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Thermal Coal) - News: National railway coal shipments reached 1.553 billion tons from January to September [40]. - Comment: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported due to the approaching cold wave in the north [40]. - Investment Advice: The price of thermal coal is expected to be strongly supported [40]. 3.2.6 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - News: FMG's iron ore production in Q3 2025 was 50.8 million tons, with a 7% quarterly decline and a 6% annual increase [41]. - Comment: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile, with a seasonal increase in supply and pressure on demand [41]. - Investment Advice: The price of iron ore is expected to remain weakly volatile and is relatively weak in the sector [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - News: China's rebar production in the first three quarters was 143.387 million tons; the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.741 million tons last week [42][43]. - Comment: The price of steel products is expected to be volatile, with inventory reduction alleviating concerns about oversupply but limited demand restricting the upside space [44]. - Investment Advice: Adopt a volatile trading strategy for steel prices [45]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Alumina) - News: Century Aluminum's smelter in Iceland shut down temporarily due to a power equipment failure, affecting about 2 million tons of alumina demand annually [45]. - Comment: The overseas smelter shutdown has affected alumina demand, and the market is under pressure [45]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [46]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - News: A French highway tested the "charging - while - driving" technology for electric vehicles; Vale plans to invest 70 billion reais to expand copper production [47][48]. - Comment: The price of copper is supported by short - term macro - sentiment improvement but limited by fundamentals in the short term [49]. - Investment Advice: Buy on dips [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - News: The number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million; Qingyuan offers a 500 - yuan subsidy for electric bicycle trade - ins [50][51]. - Comment: The price of lead is expected to remain high and volatile. Investors can consider short - selling on rallies, as well as mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. - Investment Advice: Short - sell on rallies, and consider mid - term spread and cross - market arbitrage opportunities [53]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - News: Boliden's Q3 2025 lead - zinc concentrate production increased; the number of car trade - in subsidy applications in 2025 exceeded 10 million [55][56]. - Comment: The price of zinc is expected to be in a wide - range volatile state. Investors are advised to wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see, and consider mid - term positive spread arbitrage opportunities [58]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - News: Australia's Western Mines Group is conducting a general study on its Mulga Tank nickel project [59]. - Comment: The price of nickel is expected to have upward potential. Investors can look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. - Investment Advice: Look for opportunities to buy on dips and consider option strategies [61]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - News: Do - fluoride plans to ship 30GWh of lithium batteries in 2026; EVE Energy's power battery shipments in the first three quarters of 2025 were 34.59GWh [62][63]. - Comment: The price of lithium carbonate is supported by inventory reduction during the peak season, but further upward movement depends on supply - side disruptions. Short - term range trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to arbitrage opportunities [64]. - Investment Advice: Short - term range trading, and pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [64]. 3.2.14 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - News: China's weekly liquefied petroleum gas production decreased by 2.65% week - on - week; the inventory rate decreased by 0.39 percentage points [65][66]. - Comment: The price of liquefied petroleum gas is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain volatile in the short term [67]. 3.2.15 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - News: China's weekly asphalt production decreased by 110,000 tons week - on - week, a 2% decline [68]. - Comment: The price of asphalt is expected to fluctuate greatly due to the game between geopolitical support for oil prices and weak fundamentals [68]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [69]. 3.2.16 Energy Chemicals (Methanol) - News: Iran's Kimiya methanol plant restarted [70]. - Comment: The price of methanol is currently supported by cost and downstream factors, but the fundamentals have not improved. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see. If the price rises further, there may be short - selling opportunities [72]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - News: US natural gas inventory increased by 87Bcf week - on - week [73]. - Comment: The price of natural gas is in a bearish pattern, and the current rebound is expected to be short - lived [73]. - Investment Advice: Wait and see [74]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - News: The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased locally; the overall开工 load rate increased slightly [75]. - Comment: The supply - demand pattern of caustic soda is weak, but the large discount on the futures market and potential demand pulses from new alumina capacity may limit the downside. Short - selling should be cautious [76]. - Investment Advice: Short - selling should be cautious [76]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - News: The price of PVC in the domestic market was slightly volatile, and the overall开工 load rate decreased [77][78]. - Comment: The price of PVC is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. - Investment Advice: The price is expected to remain in a low - level volatile state, with limited further downward space [78]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - News: China's weekly styrene production decreased by 124,000 tons week - on - week, a 3.65% decline [79]. - Comment: The price of styrene has rebounded due to supply disruptions and rising oil prices. Attention should be paid to the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. - Investment Advice: Monitor the negative feedback from downstream industries and the potential reduction of the pure benzene - oil price spread [80]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - News: The inventory of soda ash manufacturers decreased slightly on Thursday compared to Monday [81]. - Comment: The price of soda ash is supported by coal prices in the short term, but the upside is limited by new capacity. The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches [82]. - Investment Advice: The downward space depends on coal price fluctuations and new capacity launches. Continue to monitor [82]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - News: The inventory of float glass manufacturers continued to increase, with a 3.64% week - on - week increase [83]. - Comment: The price of float glass has risen slightly due to coal - price - driven bullish sentiment, but the market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and weak demand [

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows a situation of increasing supply and demand. The uncertainty of the start - up of secondary lead due to raw material issues provides some support for lead prices, and short - term lead prices are expected to remain range - bound. For zinc, the fundamental situation of SHFE zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand, and the price is under pressure. Additionally, attention should be paid to the increasing LME 0 - 3 back structure as LME zinc inventories are continuously depleted [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained unchanged from the previous day at 17,000 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract also remained unchanged at 17,160 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 33.36% to 29,011 lots, and the open interest decreased by 20.89% to 26,547 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 244,125 tons, and the SHFE lead warrant inventory decreased by 11.22% to 24,977 tons [1] - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise but difficult to fall, which has not had a substantial impact on smelter operations. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in the start - up rate. For secondary lead, previously shut - down smelters are gradually resuming production, increasing supply. On the demand side, the terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises are operating well, with an increase in demand [1] - **Company News**: Boliden reduced its annual planned grinding volume from 1.8 million tons to 1.6 million tons. SMM expects the annual zinc concentrate production to be reduced by about 0.5 - 10,000 metric tons and lead concentrate production to be reduced by about 2,000 metric tons. MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26% [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading and continue to monitor the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises and changes in macro - sentiment [1] Zinc Market - **Price and Market Indicators**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.18% to 21,830 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract increased by 0.14% to 22,000 yuan/ton. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 5.76% to 102,274 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.72% to 132,692 lots. The LME inventory remained unchanged at 35,300 tons, and the SHFE zinc warrant inventory decreased by 1.60% to 65,209 tons [1] - **Fundamentals**: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc concentrate processing fees are continuously rising. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee decreased to 3,400 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc concentrate processing fee index increased to 118.75 dollars/dry ton. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the monthly production is expected to remain at around 600,000 tons. There is no significant improvement in demand, and the zinc ingot export window is expected to open as the SHFE - LME ratio continues to deteriorate [1] - **Company News**: MMG's zinc mine production in Q3 2025 was 58,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 26%. Boliden's Odda smelter's refined zinc production decreased compared to the previous quarter, affected by a shortage of intermediate materials, and SMM expects its 2025 actual output to be about 170,000 - 180,000 tons [1] - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading and be vigilant about overseas structural risks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed restarted the interest - rate cut cycle, which is favorable for risk assets, but the US government shutdown and the resurgence of China - US tariff conflicts have increased macro uncertainties. China's economy faces certain pressures, and new policy - based financial instruments are expected to strengthen economic growth this year, with the possibility of further policy stimulus still existing [3][88]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign zinc processing fees has intensified. The inflection point of domestic ore processing fees has emerged, and there is still room for adjustment as smelters' winter storage demand rises. The continuous decline in the price of by - product sulfuric acid has compressed smelter profit margins, reducing production enthusiasm. Although refined zinc supply will recover in October, the room for further growth is limited. The current Shanghai - London price ratio is near the critical point for zinc ingot exports, and the opening of the export window is expected to relieve the domestic surplus pressure [3][88]. - The peak consumption season is somewhat dull. The start - up rate of primary enterprises has improved month - on - month but is weaker than the same period. They maintain a just - in - time purchasing rhythm and lack the willingness to actively replenish inventories. In the terminal market, infrastructure has a marginal repair demand and may become an important support for demand in the future; the consumption of automobiles and household appliances remains resilient, the performance in the wind and solar sectors is divergent, the export of galvanized sheets faces weakening pressure, and the real estate sector continues to be weak [3][88]. - Overall, there are more overseas macro disturbances, and market sentiment may fluctuate. The macro trend is less clear. Fundamentally, the situation remains strong overseas and weak domestically. The resumption of smelter production has promoted supply recovery, and demand lacks significant highlights, leading to an increase in supply - demand pressure. However, the expectation of zinc ingot exports is strengthening, which will relieve the domestic surplus pressure, while the liquidity risk of LME zinc will also decrease. These two forces will balance each other, and zinc prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [3][90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Zinc Market Review - In September, the main contract price of SHFE zinc first rose and then declined, seeking support. At the beginning of the month, supported by the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the peak consumption season, zinc prices fluctuated strongly. After the Fed cut interest rates, the market sold on the news, and the strong US economic data supported the US dollar, causing zinc prices to fall to 21,825 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 1.42%. LME zinc rose first and then fell. In the first half of the month, it broke through $2,900/ton and reached a high of $3,003.5/ton. After the interest - rate cut and hawkish remarks from Powell, it corrected and closed at $2,956.5/ton, with a monthly increase of 5.06% [8]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Analysis 3.2.1 US Situation - The US economy is cooling but remains resilient. The Q2 real GDP grew by 2.08% year - on - year and 3.8% quarter - on - quarter. In August, retail sales increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month. In September, the ISM manufacturing PMI was 49.1, but new orders declined. The non - manufacturing PMI was 50, with business activity falling below the boom - bust line. The ADP employment data in September decreased by 32,000, and inflation continued to rise slowly. In September, the Fed cut interest rates by 25bp to 4.0 - 4.25% [11][12]. - The US government shut down in late September, and Trump announced additional tariffs on China in October, which increased market uncertainties [13]. 3.2.2 Eurozone Situation - In September, the eurozone's manufacturing PMI fell to 49.5, while the services PMI rose to 51.4. Inflation rose slightly, and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.2% in August. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in September, and its officials' statements were cautious [14]. 3.2.3 China's Situation - In August, most of China's economic indicators continued to decline. Exports, industrial production, consumption, and investment all showed different degrees of slowdown. The manufacturing PMI in September was 49.8%, and the non - manufacturing PMI fell to 50.0%. The consumption during the National Day holiday was structurally differentiated [16]. - Policy support is expected. The Politburo meeting in September decided to hold the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee, and new policy - based financial instruments worth 500 billion yuan are expected to boost infrastructure investment [17]. 3.3 Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - Global zinc concentrate supply has recovered as expected. From January to July 2025, the cumulative output was 7.1994 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.02%. Overseas zinc concentrate output is expected to increase by about 550,000 tons this year, and domestic output is expected to increase by about 100,000 tons [30]. - The divergence between domestic and foreign processing fees has intensified. In October, the average domestic processing fee was 3,650 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 300 yuan/ton, while the average import processing fee was $87.51/dry ton, a month - on - month increase of $16.83/dry ton. In August 2025, 467,300 tons of zinc concentrate were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.06% [34][35]. 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - Overseas smelters are operating at low loads, while China contributes to the increase in supply. From January to July 2025, global refined zinc output was 7.911 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.15%. Overseas output decreased by 4.7%, while China's output increased by 2.65% [41]. - From January to September 2025, the cumulative output of refined zinc was 5.0691 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.85%. In September, the output was 600,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2%. It is expected that the output in October will increase by 3.77% to 622,700 tons. In August, 25,600 tons of refined zinc were imported, and from January to August, the cumulative import volume was 235,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.81%. The import window remains closed, and the export window may open [45][46]. 3.3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - Globally, from January to July 2025, refined zinc consumption was 7.843 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.12%. Overseas consumption increased by 1.33%, and domestic consumption increased by 2.96%. The supply surplus in the global zinc market was 72,000 tons, a significant reduction from the previous year [56]. - In the overseas market, the real estate and automotive sectors showed marginal improvement. In the US, new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, and new car sales in August were 1.4913 million units. In the eurozone, the construction confidence index improved slightly [57]. - In September, the start - up rate of primary processing enterprises showed a slow recovery. In August, 1.0975 million tons of galvanized sheets were exported, and from January to August, the cumulative export volume was 9.2182 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.96% [60][62]. - In the traditional infrastructure sector, investment growth has declined, but there is a demand for recovery. In the real estate sector, investment and sales continue to be weak. In the automotive and household appliance sectors, production and sales are resilient. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic industry is expected to drive zinc consumption growth, and the wind power industry is also developing well [64][72][73]. 3.3.4 Global Visible Inventory - In September, LME zinc inventory continued to decline, reaching 38,200 tons at the end of the month. The LME 0 - 3 spot premium rose and then slightly declined to $55.98/ton. - In September, China's social inventory first increased and then decreased, reaching 141,400 tons at the end of the month. There is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation during the National Day holiday in early October, but inventory is expected to decline again after the holiday [87].

Summary of District Metals Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: District Metals - **Industry**: Uranium and Polymetallic Mining - **Location**: Canada, listed in Sweden with assets in Sweden - **Flagship Project**: Viken property, the largest undeveloped uranium deposit in the world [4][10] Key Points Investment Rationale - District Metals has a strong team with expertise in exploration, discovery, development, and production [4][5] - The company is solely focused on Sweden, which is ranked 6th by the Fraser Institute for mining investment [4][6] - The Viken property contains significant resources: 4.3 billion tons of material, including 1.5 billion pounds of uranium and 24.3 billion pounds of vanadium [10] Political and Regulatory Environment - Sweden's government is expected to lift the moratorium on uranium mining by January 1, 2026, which would positively impact District Metals [7][9] - The current government has a majority to approve the bill to lift the ban, with a recommendation expected by October 31 [9] - Sweden is pro-nuclear, with plans to build 10 more nuclear reactors by 2045, which supports the uranium mining sector [8] Project Developments - Recent airborne geophysical surveys indicate potential for multiple deposits within the Viken property [11][12] - The company is also exploring other projects like SOCJARN and NYANFORCE, which show promising uranium grades [16][17] Valuation Insights - District Metals is currently valued at approximately $0.09 per pound of inferred resource, significantly lower than the peer average of $3.64 [15] - The valuation gap is attributed to the moratorium on uranium mining in Sweden since 2018 [15] Community and Environmental Considerations - The company acknowledges potential local opposition to mining projects and emphasizes the importance of social license and community benefits [22][23] - Discussions are ongoing regarding impact benefit agreements to ensure local communities share in the benefits of mining operations [22][23] - The company is committed to using modern technologies to minimize environmental impact, such as dry stack tailings and water treatment facilities [25] Additional Important Points - The historical context of mining in Sweden dates back to 400 BC, with a strong foundation in various minerals [6][7] - The company has a robust share structure with significant shareholders from Sweden, the EU, Canada, and the U.S. [6] - The political landscape in Sweden is dynamic, and the company is actively engaging with local political parties to foster support for its projects [25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding District Metals, its projects, the political landscape in Sweden, and the company's strategic focus on community engagement and environmental responsibility.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since 2025, precious metals have continued to rise, but gold and silver have shown divergence. Gold has repeatedly reached new historical highs, while silver has followed up slowly and faced pressure to fall back. The main driving factors include increased risk - aversion sentiment, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. The current bull market in precious metals differs significantly from previous ones in terms of driving logic, amplitude, and the role of central banks. [4][5][7] - Looking ahead, before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise. However, after the interest rate cuts enter the second half, attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline in precious metal prices due to profit - taking, and the overall volatility of precious metals may further increase. [64] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Market Review - Since 2025, gold has reached new highs, with London gold reaching a maximum of $3057.14 per ounce, Comex gold reaching $3065.2 per ounce, and domestic Shanghai gold reaching a maximum of 711.24 yuan per gram. Silver has followed up slowly, with London silver reaching a maximum of $34.224 per ounce and domestic Shanghai silver reaching a maximum of 8444 yuan per kilogram. [4] - The main logics for the rise of precious metals since the beginning of the year are: increased risk - aversion sentiment due to global economic and political restructuring, expectations of interest rate cuts, and central banks' continued gold purchases. [5][7] - This bull market in precious metals differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "cyclical" to "structural"), amplitude and breadth (unprecedented global general increase), and the role of central banks (from "participants" to "leading forces"). [9][10] - The bull market in silver also differs from previous ones in terms of driving logic (from "investment - led" to "investment + industrial demand dual - driven"), breadth and synchronicity (global value re - evaluation), and the relationship with gold (from "following" to "potentially leading"). [12][13] 3.2. Evolution Logic of Safe - Haven Attribute - The world is in the process of transitioning to a new order, with the US no longer the dominant power. There are risks of trade wars, government shutdowns, and potential geopolitical conflicts, which may increase the demand for safe - haven assets. Trump's policy expectations affect precious metal prices through multiple channels, and in the short term, risk - aversion sentiment may support precious metal prices, while in the long term, trade frictions may increase inflation or lead to economic recession, making precious metals more attractive. [14][16] - The volatility of the US stock market may rise, which will increase the safe - haven value of precious metals. [19] 3.3. Evolution Logic of Monetary Attribute - In 2025, US inflation may experience "re - inflation", and the eurozone is close to achieving its anti - inflation target, but trade war risks pose pressure on future interest rate cuts. The Fed has adjusted its monetary policy framework, which may lead to potential changes in US dollar liquidity and have different impacts on various countries. [23] - The US employment situation may continue to weaken, and Trump's new policies may accelerate the decline in employment. Non - farm payroll data has a significant impact on the Fed's interest rate decisions and precious metal prices. [32][35] - The Fed is expected to continue to cut interest rates in 2025, with a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points and the process expected to be completed around mid - 2026. The CME FedWatch Tool can help investors predict the Fed's interest rate trends. [41][42] - Global central bank monetary policies have shown significant divergence in recent years. The difference in interest rate cut expectations between the US and non - US countries is crucial. Later, the Fed's larger interest rate cut space may put pressure on the US dollar index. [45] 3.4. Evolution Logic of Commodity Attribute - In 2024, the global gold supply increased steadily, but demand declined. In 2025, demand is expected to continue to show structural divergence. Jewelry demand is suppressed by high gold prices, but official and private gold purchases offset some negative impacts. Gold ETFs, bars, and coins have strong demand, while gold jewelry demand shows a tonnage - consumption divergence. [51] - The World Silver Association predicts that in 2025, the global silver supply - demand gap will narrow by 21% to 117.6 million ounces (about 3658 tons) due to a 1% decline in demand and a 2% increase in total supply. [56] 3.5. Technical Analysis - London gold has been in an upward trend since 2000. After reaching a high in 2011 and then falling back, it has started a new upward trend since 2016. In 2025, it has accelerated its upward movement. It is expected to continue to rise before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026. Attention should be paid to the pressure levels of $3750 - 4000 (about 850 - 910 yuan for Shanghai gold) and the support level of $3400 (about 770 yuan for Shanghai gold). [58][59] - London silver has followed a similar trend to gold since 1994. Since 2016, it has oscillated upward along the 20 - year line. The recent rebound in global silver industrial demand may drive its price up. Attention should be paid to the pressure range of $49.8 - 55 (about 11780 - 13000 yuan for Shanghai silver) and the support level of $37.9 (about 8960 yuan for Shanghai silver). [62] 3.6. Future Market Development Direction from the Perspective of Long - Short Game - The reconstruction of the global economic and political system promotes the reconstruction of the monetary system. The safe - haven demand under global economic uncertainty and policy game are complexly intertwined. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term Sino - US game, and repeated geopolitical conflicts still support the precious metal market. Before the Fed hints at the end of interest rate cuts around mid - 2026, precious metals may continue to rise, but attention should be paid to the risk of a rapid decline. [64] 3.7. Overview of the Domestic Precious Metal Industry Chain - In the first half of 2025, domestic raw material gold production was 179.083 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.31%. After including imported raw material gold, the total gold production was 252.761 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.44%. Key gold mine projects are advancing rapidly, and large - scale gold enterprises' overseas mine production has increased. [67][68] - In the first half of 2025, domestic gold consumption was 505.205 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.54%. Gold jewelry consumption was suppressed by high prices, while demand for gold bars and coins increased, and industrial and other gold uses also increased. [69]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for Shanghai Lead is "Volatility", with a price range of [16,500, 17,800], featuring narrow - range fluctuations and occasional small - to medium - scale market movements [3]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q4 2025, the shortage of lead concentrates and waste batteries will intensify. Domestic demand is expected to improve periodically under the background of policy - boosted consumption, while export demand may continue to be under pressure. The oscillation center of Shanghai Lead may move up, and there may be small - to medium - scale upward trends as consumption improves. The volatility may increase compared to Q3, and it is safer to take long positions at low prices. Attention should be paid to the production strategies of large enterprises [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Q3 2025 Lead Price Review - In July, lead prices rose first and then fell. Shanghai Lead increased significantly due to anti - cut - throat competition sentiment and pre - trading of improved demand, but domestic demand was later disproven, and anti - cut - throat competition had limited impact on basic non - ferrous commodities. LME Lead was pressured by a stronger US dollar, and both domestic and overseas lead prices dropped back to pre - increase levels [6]. - In August, the 0 - 3 cash of the outer market remained deeply in contango. The domestic lead market had weak supply and demand. Falling lead prices and tight raw materials intensified the pressure on the operating rate of secondary smelters, and demand was even weaker. With low capital attention, both domestic and overseas lead prices fluctuated at low levels [6]. - In September, the bottom - building of lead prices ended. As the traditional peak season approached, the raw material and finished - product inventories of downstream battery factories continued to decline, and lead prices rose slightly in advance. With the approaching of the double - festival holiday, downstream enterprises stocked up in advance, and market transactions improved as lead prices rose. The fundamental support pushed the operating center of lead prices up from 16,800 yuan/ton to 17,000 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Lead Concentrate Supply Overseas - In Q3 2025, overseas lead concentrate production was lower than expected. Although project profits were sufficient, factors such as lower - than - expected output from sample mining enterprises, irreversible decline in mine grades, long - term impact of geological factors, time required for equipment renewal, and increased probability of La Nina led to the annual overseas lead concentrate increment dropping from 700,000 to 0 tons. There is no obvious expectation of improvement in Q4 [7][11]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic lead concentrate output was 1.098 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.7%, mainly due to the output release of new projects such as Yinzhushan and Kangjiawan. The main reasons for the decline in TC were the high operating rate of primary smelters, the reflection of the supply - demand relationship of high - grade concentrates in TC, and the weak bargaining power in spot transactions due to fewer long - term contracts signed by smelters. In Q4, Huoshaoyun may release marginal increments, and the domestic mine increment in 2025 is expected to reach +1.2 million tons. The import of Red Dog lead concentrate will share tariff costs equally between domestic and foreign parties, and the import of lead concentrates may decline seasonally in Q4. With primary smelters maintaining a relatively high operating rate, TC may continue to be under pressure [20]. 3. Primary Lead Production Overseas - From January to August, the cumulative overseas primary lead output was 864,000 tons (YoY - 1.4%). Due to tight raw materials, the reduction in overseas primary lead production increased. There was a significant reduction in Kazzinc 3rd Party under Glencore, and the incremental production from restarted and ramping - up projects was not obvious [24]. Domestic - From January to August, the cumulative domestic primary lead output was 2.542 million tons (YoY + 8.2%), mainly due to the restoration of raw material supply, the widening of the price difference between refined and secondary lead, and the increase in production profits (including by - products such as small metals). The operating rate of primary lead in Q3 was generally at a high level. Overall, the domestic surplus (+193,000 tons) can still cover the overseas reduction (-13,000 tons). However, smelting profits are approaching the break - even point and declining, and with the downward pressure on TC in the future, smelting profits may be under pressure. The production of primary lead in Q4 may decline quarter - on - quarter [24]. 4. Secondary Lead Production - From January to August, the cumulative secondary refined lead output was 2.08 million tons (YoY - 3%), and the operating rate of secondary lead remained at a low level of 30%, which may drop below 25% in September. The production cuts of secondary lead smelters mostly follow the raw material consumption rhythm rather than profit changes. The scrap battery scrap volume in Q3 did not improve significantly. Although recyclers sold off stocks multiple times during the lead price decline, it had limited effect on replenishing smelters' raw material inventories. As lead prices rebounded, the profits of secondary lead smelters in October were restored, and the operating rate may increase [44]. - The operating rate of secondary lead smelters in Q4 may increase quarter - on - quarter but will still be highly volatile. The replacement demand may be stimulated by trade - in subsidies, new national standards, and consumer festivals after October, but the annual output is expected to be lower than expected, and the year - on - year growth rate is revised down to - 2%. After years of continuous losses, the cash flow of many secondary lead plants has been under pressure for two and a half years, and attention should be paid to the possible exit of secondary lead production capacity [44]. 5. Initial Demand - In Q3, lead demand was generally weak. In the battery field, the demand for new automotive batteries was neutral to weak, and the replacement demand was significantly lower than expected. The traditional peak seasons for electric two - wheelers and tricycles did not materialize. The export demand for batteries was also weakened by tariffs and anti - dumping measures, while the demand in the energy storage field continued to perform well [46]. - The participation of large enterprises in the futures market has decreased, and there is a phenomenon of buying on rising prices. The finished - product inventory of large enterprises has been transferred to dealers, and the finished - product inventory has undergone a round of destocking. The production orders of lead - carbon battery manufacturers in the energy storage field are abundant [48]. 6. Terminal Demand Electric Two - Wheelers - From January to August, the cumulative production of electric bicycles in Jiangsu and Tianjin increased by 101.5% and 14.7% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate expanded compared to the first half of the year. The cumulative production of two - wheeled and three - wheeled motorcycles increased by 10.6% and 4.4% year - on - year respectively, and the growth rate narrowed compared to the first half of the year. The replacement demand in Q3 was weak. In Q4, the replacement demand is expected to strengthen periodically due to factors such as trade - in policies, upcoming Double Eleven promotions, and the implementation of new national standards [54]. Automobiles - From January to August, the domestic automobile production was 21.027 million vehicles (YoY + 12.6%), with new energy vehicles increasing by 37.1% and fuel vehicles decreasing by 2%. The export increased by 13.8% year - on - year, but the export growth rate may slow down in Q4. Considering the impact of lithium substitution for lead, the annual lead consumption growth rate in the automotive field is revised down to - 1.8% [59]. Energy Storage - Lead - carbon batteries are still irreplaceable in the data center energy storage field. As of the end of September, the production schedules of some energy storage manufacturers have reached March next year, and the demand for lead - carbon batteries continues to grow strongly. The lead consumption growth rate in this sector is revised up from 8% to 10% [59]. 7. Export Demand - From 2020 - 2023, the average annual compound growth rate of lead battery exports was 10%. From January to August, the export of starting - type batteries increased by 0.2% year - on - year, while the export of other types decreased by 11.5% year - on - year, and the decline further expanded. The main reasons are price ratio suppression, anti - dumping measures, and weak non - automotive demand (destocking) [64]. - There is no obvious driver for the recovery of overseas lead consumption, and the domestic secondary production cost support is still strong. The internal - external price ratio is difficult to repair significantly. With the influence of trade protectionism and battery manufacturers going global, exports may still be under pressure, and the annual export demand growth rate is revised down from flat to - 1% [64]. 8. Inventory - The LME lead inventory is still at a seasonal high even after destocking, and the 0 - 3 spot has been in deep contango for a long time [69]. - In Q3, the lead elements concentrated in the initial downstream and terminal consumption fields were slowly consumed, and the lead elements in the intermediate links of the industrial chain have decreased. However, the medium - to - long - term trend still depends on future demand. Before the double - festivals, downstream enterprises stocked up normally, and potential delivery risks should be警惕 under low inventory levels [69]. - The import window for lead ingots may open intermittently in Q4. Based on this expectation, it is recommended to pay attention to the range - trading opportunities of the internal - external price ratio [69]. 9. Supply - Demand Balance - The revised balance sheet shows that the annual shortage level has decreased. The supply of primary lead may face a marginal tightening of imported ores in Q4, and TC has downward pressure, with a possibility of limited production cuts by smelters. The replacement demand in the secondary lead sector may improve periodically in Q4, but waste batteries will still be in short supply. The operating rate of secondary lead smelters may improve quarter - on - quarter but will remain highly volatile [71]. - The annual terminal demand growth rate is expected to turn negative, mainly due to the possible over - expected lithium substitution for lead, the pressure on both domestic sales and exports of automobiles, the dependence of electric vehicle replacement demand on policy stimuli, the strong consumption in the energy storage field, and the continued pressure on exports. The demand in Q4 may improve periodically [72].

一场重大矿难事故正让全球第二大铜矿陷入停产，并由此引发了全球金属市场的强烈震动。 9月24日，美国矿业巨头矿业巨头Freeport-McMoRan（FCX）发表声明宣布，其供应合同进入"不可抗力"状态。而这一突发事件被华尔街迅速定性 为"黑天鹅事件"，点燃了市场对铜供应长期短缺的忧虑，并推动铜价大幅飙升。 华尔街见闻写道，事件的核心是Freeport位于印尼的Grasberg矿山。该公司确认，9月8日发生的一场大规模泥石流事故已造成两名工人死亡，另有 五人失踪。作为应对，公司已全面暂停该矿区的生产活动，并启动了不可抗力条款，该条款允许生产商在遭遇不可预见的灾难时暂停履行供应合 同。 高盛："黑天鹅"来袭，供应缺口或达数十万吨 市场的反应立竿见影。消息传出后，纽约商品交易所（COMEX）的铜期货价格上涨近4%，报4.825美元/磅。Freeport的股价在盘前交易中重挫， 而其竞争对手如嘉能可和Boliden等铜业公司的股价则应声上涨。 丹麦盛宝银行商品策略主管Ole Hansen对此评论道："交易员们先买入，然后再问问题"，精准地描绘了市场在供应恐慌下的本能反应。 高盛的大宗商品团队将此次Grasberg矿山 ...

Core Viewpoint - A significant mining accident at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia has led to a supply disruption, raising concerns about a long-term copper shortage and causing a sharp increase in copper prices [2][4]. Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 24, Freeport-McMoRan announced that its supply contracts entered a state of "force majeure" due to a large landslide on September 8, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2]. - The Grasberg mine is the second-largest copper mine globally and also the largest gold mine, contributing approximately 3.2% of global copper supply and nearly 30% of Freeport's copper production [9]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the announcement, copper futures on the New York Commodity Exchange (COMEX) surged nearly 4%, reaching $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell in pre-market trading [4]. - Competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise, indicating a market reaction driven by supply fears [4]. Group 3: Supply Impact - Goldman Sachs labeled the Grasberg shutdown as a "black swan event," predicting a loss of 500,000 tons of copper supply over the next 12 to 15 months, with potential further losses of 1 to 2 million tons [7]. - The supply disruption is expected to have a disproportionate impact on the London Metal Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) due to existing overstock issues in the U.S. market [11]. Group 4: Long-term Production Outlook - Freeport has lowered its third-quarter copper and gold sales guidance by 4% and 6%, respectively, and anticipates a 35% drop in copper and gold production for 2026 compared to previous estimates [14]. - Full production recovery at Grasberg may not occur until 2027, raising concerns for industries reliant on copper, such as electric vehicles and renewable energy [14][15].

Group 1 - A landslide at Indonesia's Grasberg mine has severely impacted the global copper market, with an immediate loss of approximately 800,000 tons of wet mud flooding the mine, resulting in two fatalities and five missing workers [2] - Freeport-McMoRan has declared force majeure on supply contracts, leading to a 4% spike in COMEX copper prices to $4.825 per pound, while competitors like Glencore and Boliden saw their stock prices rise [2] - Goldman Sachs estimates a potential market loss of at least 500,000 tons of copper over the next 12-15 months, with the possibility of the shortfall expanding to 2 million tons if recovery efforts are delayed [2] Group 2 - The political protests in Peru have led to the suspension of operations at the Constancia mine, further straining an already tight supply chain for copper [3] - The demand for copper in electric vehicles, photovoltaics, and power grids is intensifying, with any shortfall of 100,000 tons likely to trigger uncontrollable price increases [3] Group 3 - Freeport has lowered its Q3 sales guidance for copper and gold by 4% and 6% respectively, and has outlined a phased resumption plan, with the earliest restart of unaffected areas expected in Q4 2025 [4] - The unprecedented landslide has exposed vulnerabilities in the global copper and gold supply chain, indicating that a sudden loss of 3% of production can significantly slow down the green transition [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent disaster at Freeport-McMoRan's Grasberg mine has triggered significant supply concerns in the copper market, leading to a sharp increase in copper prices and a reevaluation of market dynamics [2][4][5] Group 1: Incident Overview - On September 8, a mudslide at the Grasberg mine resulted in the loss of two workers and left five missing, causing substantial damage to infrastructure [2] - The Grasberg mine contributes 3.2% of global copper supply and 70% of Freeport's gold production, making its operational halt critical [2] - Following the incident, copper prices surged by 4% to $4.825 per pound, while Freeport's stock fell by 8% [2] Group 2: Market Reactions - Traders reacted instinctively to the supply disruption, with significant price movements observed across the market [4] - Goldman Sachs characterized the event as a "black swan," predicting a potential copper supply loss of 500,000 tons over the next 12-15 months, which could escalate to 2 million tons if recovery is delayed [4] - The current inventory structure is problematic, with 60% of global visible inventory locked in North America due to tariffs, limiting alternative sourcing options for Asian buyers [4] Group 3: Broader Supply Chain Implications - Other mines, such as Peru's Constancia and Panama's Cobre Panama, are also facing operational challenges, contributing to a tightening copper market [5] - Citigroup and Bank of America have raised their 2025 copper price forecasts to $5.2 per pound, an 18% increase from earlier predictions [5] - Freeport has revised its production guidance for 2026 down by 35%, indicating a prolonged recovery timeline that may extend to 2027 for full capacity restoration [5] Group 4: Impact on Industries - The copper supply shortage poses a significant challenge for manufacturers focused on global energy transition, as electric vehicles and wind farms require substantial copper [5] - If the supply gap persists for two years, the electric vehicle sector alone could consume an additional 300,000 tons of refined copper, equivalent to 40% of global tradable inventory [5] Group 5: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The capital markets are beginning to reassess the gap between green demand and brown supply, with significant inflows into copper mining ETFs and rising credit default swap rates for Freeport [6] - Analysts highlight that this operational disruption is the most severe for Freeport in 30 years, emphasizing the tangible risks posed by ESG factors and community conflicts [6] - The incident has exposed vulnerabilities in the global metal supply chain, raising concerns about potential systemic risks in the market [7]