1月28日，零食很忙和赵一鸣合并后的母公司"鸣鸣很忙"在港交所敲钟，开盘暴涨88%，市值一度突破800亿 港元，成为"港股量贩零食第一股"。很多人好奇：一个卖便宜零食的品牌，为啥这么火？答案就俩字——模 式。 说到底，鸣鸣很忙的上市，标志着硬折扣模式被资本市场认可；而巨头入场，则把竞争从"拼价格"升级为"拼 效率+拼运营"。未来，社交电商将成为硬折扣玩家的标配，而我们，正站在这个爆发点上。 低价的背后，是极致的供应链能力。它直接对接2500多家食品厂，砍掉所有中间商；全国48个仓，300公里 内24小时送达，库存周转仅11天，远快于传统商超。这种"源头直采+高效配送+低毛利高周转"的组合，正是 硬折扣的本质。 很多人误以为硬折扣就是卖临期品，其实不然。它是长期稳定的低价，靠的是精简SKU（单店只留1000– 2000个爆款）、极简装修、自助收银等降本手段。如今，阿里、美团、京东也纷纷入局——盒马的"超盒算 NB"、美团的"快乐猴"、京东折扣超市，都在疯狂开店。 巨头扎堆，表面是价格战，实则是效率与用户粘性的较量。而要在薄利时代突围，光靠线下和传统供应链已 经不够，社交电商成了关键破局点。比如，零食很忙的加盟商 ...

李嘉豪 S0630525100001 lijiah@longone.com.cn 证券分析师： 王洋 S0630513040002 wangyang@longone.com.cn [晨会纪要 Table_NewTitle] 20260204 [table_summary] 重点推荐 财经要闻 [Table_Reportdate] 2026年02月04日 [证券分析师： Table_Authors] | | 1.1. 旺季预期积极，关注春节备货行情——食品饮料行业周报（2026/1/26- | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 2026/2/1） | | 3 | | 1.2. 头部 CSP | 资本开支持续高增，平头哥发布全自研 | AI | 训推一体芯片——电子 | | 行业周报 2026/1/26-2025/2/1 | | | 4 | | 2. 财经新闻 | | | 6 | | 3. A | 股市场评述 | | 7 | | 4. 市场数据 | | | 9 | 晨 会 纪 要 证券研究报告 HTTP://WWW.LONGONE.COM.CN 请务必仔细阅读正文后的所有说明和声 ...

Group 1: Micro Fund Development - The return logic of micro funds is primarily based on the valuation repair of low-attention assets and capital games, with a systematic selection of underpriced micro stocks to capture valuation recovery as attention increases [10][10][10] - Micro funds can be categorized into three types based on strategy implementation: active gaming type, flexible allocation type, and stable participation type, each differing in exposure, return elasticity, and drawdown characteristics [10][10][10] - The micro fund style is expected to have a phase of recovery and structural allocation value, benefiting from a friendly policy and liquidity environment under the "14th Five-Year Plan" [10][10][10] Group 2: Fixed Income Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on bond issuers within key supported industries under the "14th Five-Year Plan," using a qualitative and quantitative assessment method to identify the top 25% of issuers based on bond performance and fundamentals [3][3][3] - The analysis highlights that the majority of recommended issuers have bond balances of 2 billion yuan or more, with ratings predominantly at AAA and AA+ levels, indicating strong credit quality [3][3][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring macroeconomic conditions and industry policies, as well as the potential tightening of credit environments [3][3][3] Group 3: Company-Specific Insights - Jingdong Group's revenue is projected to reach 350.8 billion yuan in Q4 2025, with a slight year-on-year increase, while the retail business is expected to face pressure due to reduced government subsidies [20][20][20] - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is positioned as a leading player in the snack retail sector, with projected revenues of 645 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a significant growth trajectory [19][19][19] - The report anticipates that the company "Jiyuan Group" will maintain a strong market position in the health supplement industry, with a projected revenue of 10 billion yuan in 2024, driven by its innovative product offerings [17][17][17]

Core Insights - The article discusses the journey of the snack company "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and its CEO Yan Zhou, highlighting its rapid growth and strategic decisions leading to its IPO in Hong Kong [1][6][34] Company Overview - Yan Zhou, the CEO, co-founded "Ming Ming Hen Mang" in 2017, focusing on the mass consumer market for snacks, which was previously underserved [4][18] - The company has expanded from its initial base in Hunan to nearly 20,000 stores by 2025, achieving a GMV of 661 billion yuan and revenue of 464 billion yuan in the first nine months of 2025 [4][32] Investment and Financing - The company secured significant investments from major firms like Sequoia, Hillhouse, and Temasek, with a notable 44.44 times international subscription rate during its IPO, the highest for consumer IPOs in Hong Kong in two years [5][6] - The pre-IPO valuation was set at 20 billion yuan, reflecting a strong growth trajectory despite a challenging investment environment for consumer brands [15][27] Market Strategy - Yan Zhou emphasizes a unique retail aesthetic and consumer experience, aiming for "consumption upgrade" rather than merely selling cheap products [12][13] - The company has adopted a strict franchise selection process, ensuring that franchisees are committed and financially stable, which contributes to its competitive pricing strategy [17][18] Mergers and Acquisitions - The merger with Zhao Yiming's snack brand was a strategic move to consolidate market presence, with a 60:40 share agreement favoring Zhao Yiming, showcasing Yan Zhou's long-term vision [29][31] - Post-merger, the combined entity aims to operate over 10,000 stores, marking a significant milestone in the snack retail industry [31][32] Industry Context - The snack retail sector has seen rapid growth, with "Ming Ming Hen Mang" emerging as a leader amidst increasing competition from other brands [25][34] - The article highlights the shift in consumer behavior towards affordable yet quality snack options, which has been accelerated by the success of platforms like Pinduoduo and brands like Mixue Ice City [34]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company is a leader in the snack retail sector, with a significant market presence and a strong growth trajectory. The merger of its two brands has positioned it as the largest snack retail chain in China by GMV as of 2024 [8][14] - The industry is experiencing rapid growth, with the market size projected to increase from 73 billion in 2019 to 1,297 billion by 2024, reflecting a CAGR of 77.8% [8] - The company's revenue is primarily generated through a franchise model, with over 98.5% of sales coming from franchise stores, allowing for rapid expansion and high operational efficiency [23][27] Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - The company operates under two main brands, providing a wide range of snack products and has established a robust supply chain to ensure competitive pricing and product availability [14] - As of November 2025, the company had 21,041 stores across 28 provinces in China, with 59% located in county and town areas [14][18] 2. Industry Dynamics - The snack retail sector is characterized by a dual oligopoly, with the company and its main competitor expected to hold approximately 75.6% of the market share by 2024 [8] - The shift towards discount retailing is driven by consumer demand for value and the inefficiencies of traditional retail channels [8] 3. Financial Performance - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 645 billion, 822 billion, and 944 billion respectively, with adjusted net profits of 26 billion, 32 billion, and 39 billion [8] - The company has shown a significant improvement in profitability, with net profit margins increasing from 1.7% in 2022 to 3.4% in 2025 [48] 4. Operational Efficiency - The company has a high inventory turnover rate, significantly outperforming its peers, which contributes to its operational efficiency [50] - The gross margin has improved from 7.5% in 2022 to 9.7% in 2025, reflecting enhanced supply chain integration and cost management [42][48] 5. Future Outlook - The company is exploring new store formats, including discount supermarkets, to enhance revenue streams and improve profitability [8][14] - The management team is stable and experienced, with a focus on strategic planning and operational execution [58]

Core Insights - The rise of "bulk snack stores" is transforming consumer purchasing habits, offering a new way to access affordable and diverse snack options [2][4] - These stores are bridging the gap between supply and demand in China's vast food industry, which has historically faced challenges in connecting production with consumer needs [4][5] Group 1: Supply and Demand Gap in the Food Industry - China's food industry is massive, with over 43,000 large-scale enterprises and a production value exceeding 10 trillion yuan, yet there exists a significant supply-demand disconnect [5][6] - Many food manufacturers struggle with unstable orders and lack of distribution channels, leading to a situation where production capacity does not translate into market value [5][6] - The emergence of new consumer brands post-2018 highlights a growing demand for healthier and low-sugar products, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [6][7] Group 2: How Bulk Snack Stores Restructure the Supply Chain - Bulk snack stores, exemplified by brands like "Mingming Hen Mang," are not merely discount retailers but act as "industry organizers" that streamline the supply chain [9][11] - These stores leverage data from their extensive networks to understand consumer preferences, allowing them to make informed production decisions and reduce costs by eliminating middlemen [11][12] - As of December 31, 2024, "Mingming Hen Mang" offers products at an average price 25% lower than similar items in traditional supermarkets, achieved through efficient supply chain management [12] Group 3: Transforming Consumer Experience and Production Dynamics - The new model allows consumers to purchase high-quality products at lower prices, enhancing the shopping experience and making it more accessible, especially in lower-tier cities [14][16] - For suppliers, the bulk snack store model provides stable, large-scale orders, reducing anxiety over production capacity and inventory, thus fostering a more predictable production environment [16][17] - The collaboration between bulk snack stores and suppliers encourages innovation and quality improvements, benefiting both parties and driving the overall industry forward [17]

Group 1 - The company "Mingming Hen Mang" is a leading player in China's leisure food and beverage retail industry, projected to achieve a GMV of 55.5 billion yuan and operate nearly 15,000 stores in 2024, leading the market [1] - The industry is experiencing structural changes, with a shift towards specialized retail models, which are growing at a CAGR of approximately 14% from 2019 to 2024, while the market continues to penetrate lower-tier cities [1] - China's per capita snack consumption and expenditure have significant room for growth compared to developed countries, indicating a high ceiling for the industry [1] Group 2 - The company has demonstrated rapid financial growth, with revenue reaching 39.344 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 282.15%, and a net profit of 834 million yuan, up 283.44% [2] - The company's gross margin and net profit margin improved from 7.45% and 1.67% in 2022 to 9.73% and 3.36% in the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing effective scale and operational efficiency [2] - A refined operational system, brand marketing upgrades, and efficient supply chain management have created a strong competitive advantage for the company [2] Group 3 - The company is transitioning from "scale expansion" to "value deepening," with strong growth certainty and ample space for development, projecting revenues of 64.5 billion, 82.2 billion, and 94.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [3] - The forecasted net profits for the same period are 2.3 billion, 3 billion, and 3.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 176%, 31%, and 24% [3] - Given the sustained high demand in the leisure snack industry and the company's prominent market position, it has been assigned a "buy" rating [3]

Group 1: A-share IPO Market Overview - In January 2026, 17 companies were scheduled for IPO meetings in the A-share market, with 15 companies passing and a pass rate of 88.24% [2][3] - Among the 17 companies, 11 are set to list on the Beijing Stock Exchange, continuing a trend of over 10 companies per month since November 2025 [1][2] - Four companies terminated their IPOs in January, a decrease from five in December 2025 [5] Group 2: Company-Specific Insights - Huikang Technology, one of the companies that faced questions during the IPO process, reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with expected full-year declines of 13.40% and 8.40% respectively [3] - The first major supplier of Huikang Technology, Cixi Ruiyi Electronics, was established in 2020 and became a key supplier in the same year [3] - Yadian Technology, another company that terminated its IPO, had a high customer concentration, with over 50% of its revenue coming from a single client, Longi Green Energy [6][7] Group 3: Hong Kong IPO Market Activity - The Hong Kong IPO market remained active in January 2026, with over 100 companies submitting applications, and all new stocks listed in January saw price increases on their debut [10][12] - MINIMAX-WP, a domestic large model enterprise, saw a remarkable 109.9% increase on its first trading day, achieving a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion HKD [12] - A total of 121 companies applied to list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in January, a significant increase from 80 in December 2025 [11]

Group 1: Consumer Sector Overview - Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, the consumer sector is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, with leading companies showing structural resilience and positive signals emerging in several sub-sectors [1] - The investment logic in the consumer sector has shifted from Beta-driven to Alpha-exploration, focusing on leading companies with scale barriers, brand influence, and operational efficiency [1] Group 2: Alcohol Industry - The overall sales of the liquor industry are experiencing a double-digit decline, but Kweichow Moutai is outperforming market expectations, with significant pre-holiday demand and double-digit growth in several key markets [2] - Moutai's traditional channel shipment progress is at 25%, with historical low inventory levels, leading to a steady price recovery to nearly 1700 yuan, confirming the price bottom [2] - The trend of increasing industry concentration continues, with leading brands expected to achieve year-on-year growth despite macroeconomic pressures [2] Group 3: Snack Industry - The bulk snack channel is rapidly replacing traditional retail formats, with a market size exceeding 129.7 billion yuan and a compound annual growth rate of 77.9% from 2019 to 2024 [3] - The market is highly concentrated, with leading brands "Mingming Hen Mang" and "Wancheng" holding over 75% market share, and "Mingming Hen Mang" alone accounting for approximately 43% [3] - The operational efficiency of leading companies is expected to enhance market penetration, benefiting from scale effects and further increasing industry concentration [3] Group 4: Pharmaceutical Industry - The investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector are increasingly structural, with the innovative drug industry chain remaining a core focus, particularly in areas like immunotherapy and small nucleic acid technology [4] - The CXO sector is experiencing a steady recovery, with improved overseas biotech financing conditions and a structural rebound in domestic CRO demand [4] - The medical device sector is expected to benefit from recovering hospital demand and improving inventory cycles, with domestic companies likely to gain market share due to expanding procurement policies [5] Group 5: Agriculture and Livestock - The pig farming industry is undergoing capacity reduction, with the number of breeding sows decreasing to 39.61 million by the end of 2025, leading to a potential price recovery supported by seasonal demand [7] - The poultry farming sector is facing tight supply due to previous overseas breeding restrictions, while the yellow feather chicken market is entering a growth phase with low historical breeding costs [7] - The planting sector is benefiting from agricultural cycle rotations and policy support, with the domestic transgenic corn industry expected to expand, favoring leading seed companies with strong R&D capabilities [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [1][27]. Core Insights - The company, "Ming Ming Hen Mang," is a leading player in the Chinese snack retail sector, with a projected revenue of 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 282.15% [1][27]. - The company has successfully merged its two brands, "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and "Zhao Yi Ming Snacks," to enhance market coverage and operational efficiency [8][9]. - The retail landscape is undergoing structural changes, with a shift towards specialized retail models, which are expected to drive significant growth in the snack sector [7][27]. Financial Performance - The company has shown rapid revenue growth, with revenues of 10.30 billion RMB in 2023, projected to reach 39.34 billion RMB in 2024, and 64.52 billion RMB in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 140.22% and 282.15% respectively [1][13]. - Net profit is expected to grow from 217.43 million RMB in 2023 to 833.70 million RMB in 2024, and further to 2.30 billion RMB in 2025, indicating a growth rate of 203.45% and 283.44% respectively [1][13]. - The company's gross margin is projected to improve from 7.45% in 2022 to 9.73% in the first three quarters of 2025, showcasing enhanced profitability [13][20]. Market Position - "Ming Ming Hen Mang" is positioned as the largest snack retail chain in China, with a market share of 1.5% and a gross merchandise volume (GMV) of 55.5 billion RMB in 2024 [19][23]. - The company operates approximately 15,000 stores, with a significant presence in both mainland China and Hong Kong/Macau [8][9]. - The competitive landscape is characterized by a duopoly between "Ming Ming Hen Mang" and "Wan Chen Group," both of which are rapidly expanding their store networks [22][27].