BZ&EB周报：短期EB高位震荡 资料来源：隆众，国泰君安期货研究 纯苯投产仍然较多 下游投产进入尾声 | | | | | | | | | ABS | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | 工厂 | 产能 | | 2026年上半年 | 1月 | | | | | 上海赛科 | 12 | | | | | 2月 | | | | | | | | | | | 3月 | | | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | | | | | 4月 | | | 山东辉航 | 12 | | | | | | | 5月 | | | | | | | | | | | 6月 | | | | | | | | | | 2026年下半年 | 7月 | | | | | | | 高桥扩能 | 7.5 | | | 8月 | 华锦阿美 | 60 | | | 河南网塑 | 20 | 英力士 | 30 | | | 9月 | | | 广西骅桥 | 40 | 卫星石化 | 20 | | | | | | | | 浙 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight," indicating an expected outperformance of the industry index relative to the benchmark by more than 5% over the next six months [66]. Core Insights - The report highlights strong price support from factories, with solid methionine prices rebounding [1]. - The average prices for various chemical products are provided, showing fluctuations in pricing and profitability across different segments [2]. - The report identifies key listed companies in the chemical sector, including Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and others [2]. Summary by Sections 2.1 Basic Chemical Index Trends - The report includes a weekly overview of the basic chemical index trends, indicating overall market movements [10]. 2.2 Polyurethane Sector - The average prices for pure MDI, polymer MDI, and TDI are reported as 17,543, 13,864, and 14,085 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -171, -36, and +110 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 4,171, 1,493, and 2,363 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -332, -196, and -15 CNY/ton [2]. 2.3 Oil, Coal, and Olefin Sector - Average prices for ethane, propane, thermal coal, and naphtha are reported as 1,416, 4,349, 520, and 4,074 CNY/ton respectively, with increases of +147, +52, +0, and +171 CNY/ton [2]. - The average price for polyethylene is 7,162 CNY/ton, showing a rise of +62 CNY/ton [2]. - The theoretical profits for ethane cracking, CTO, and naphtha cracking for polyethylene production are reported as 694, 1,438, and -245 CNY/ton, with respective changes of -161, +41, and -127 CNY/ton [2]. 2.4 Coal Chemical Sector - Average prices for synthetic ammonia, urea, DMF, and acetic acid are 2,184, 1,745, 3,962, and 2,579 CNY/ton respectively, with changes of -27, +5, +68, and -21 CNY/ton [2]. - The gross margins for these products are 199, 72, -92, and 445 CNY/ton, reflecting changes of -21, +1, +10, and -8 CNY/ton [2]. 2.5 Animal Nutrition Sector - Average prices for VA, VE, solid methionine, and liquid methionine are reported as 61.5, 55.1, 17.9, and 14.2 CNY/kg respectively, with changes of -0.7, +0.6, +0.3, and +0.0 CNY/kg [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The document does not provide the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a monthly stock portfolio for February 2026, covering multiple industries and companies, and provides financial data and core recommendation logics for each company [1]. Summary by Company Technology - Tencent Holdings (0700.HK) - The market starts to recognize the full - scale empowerment of Tencent's various businesses by AI, with the possibility of being a super - entry. The cloud computing growth rate is adjusted upwards, and short - video advertising continues to drive growth [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 222703 million yuan, 257017 million yuan, and 290508 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 41%, 15%, and 13%. The operating income is 660257 million yuan, 754958 million yuan, and 833933 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 14%, and 11% [1]. Electronics - Beijing Junzheng (300223.SZ) - In the field of computing chips, the company continues to expand downstream markets. In the field of storage chips, DRAM products based on new process nodes are sent for sampling, and more models will be put into production from the second half of this year to next year. The company will also benefit from the rising price trend of storage products [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 366 million yuan, 464 million yuan, and 700 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 32%, 27%, and 51%. The operating income is 4213 million yuan, 4729 million yuan, and 5550 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 7%, 12%, and 17% [1]. New Industry - Guoji Seiko (002046.SZ) - It has a leading market share in commercial aerospace bearings, and diamond heat dissipation is expected to make a breakthrough [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 280 million yuan, 290 million yuan, and 287 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 8%, 4%, and - 1%. The operating income is 2658 million yuan, 2887 million yuan, and 3197 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 9%, 11%, and 13% [1]. Machinery -豪迈 Technology (002595.SZ) - It is a leading enterprise in tire molds, with a stable main business. It is expected to achieve both performance and valuation improvement due to the explosion of gas turbine demand [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 2011 million yuan, 2498 million yuan, and 2961 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 25%, 24%, and 19%. The operating income is 8813 million yuan, 11076 million yuan, and 13261 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 23%, 26%, and 20% [1]. Chemical - Satellite Chemical (002648.SZ) - Oil price is expected to stabilize. The third - phase and fourth - phase projects have large growth space, and stable - growth policies are expected to be introduced [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 6072 million yuan, 6524 million yuan, and 8893 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 27%, 7%, and 36%. The operating income is 45648 million yuan, 52919 million yuan, and 62055 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 10%, 16%, and 17% [1]. Chemical - Yuanli Technology (603217.SH) - The production capacity of light stabilizers and diols is released, and new materials are steadily promoted [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 207 million yuan, 209 million yuan, and 239 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 17%, 1%, and 14%. The operating income is 2220 million yuan, 2215 million yuan, and 2406 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 2%, 0%, and 9% [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Chifeng Gold (600988.SH) - Driven by the US dollar credit, central bank gold purchase, and risk - aversion factors, the gold price rises. The company has a clear path for endogenous production growth and strong performance realization ability, and has overseas M&A and integration experience [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 1764 million yuan, 3263 million yuan, and 4558 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 119%, 85%, and 39%. The operating income is 9026 million yuan, 13080 million yuan, and 16333 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 25%, 45%, and 25% [1]. Light Industry - Bohui Paper (600966.SH) - As a leading enterprise in the white cardboard industry, it has significant advantages under the all - around empowerment of APP. With the improvement of downstream demand, the white cardboard industry is expected to reverse at the bottom of the cycle, and the company's profitability is expected to reverse at the bottom [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 176 million yuan, 182 million yuan, and 407 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 3%, 4%, and 123%. The operating income is 18930 million yuan, 18356 million yuan, and 20383 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 1%, - 3%, and 11% [1]. Food and Beverage - Guoquan (2517.HK) - There are income and profit increments. The income increment comes from store expansion, store - efficiency improvement, and competitive advantages. The profit increment has a high - ceiling potential and optimization paths [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 231 million yuan, 428 million yuan, and 577 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of - 4%, 86%, and 35%. The operating income is 6470 million yuan, 7616 million yuan, and 8970 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 6%, 18%, and 18% [1]. Home Appliance - Taotao Vehicle Industry (301345.SZ) - In Q4, although the golf - cart market enters the off - season, there is an incremental output of the second brand, and the brand Teko is launched in September [1]. - In 2024A, 2025E, and 2026E, the归母 net profit is 431 million yuan, 803 million yuan, and 1099 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 54%, 86%, and 37%. The operating income is 2977 million yuan, 3981 million yuan, and 5278 million yuan respectively, with growth rates of 39%, 34%, and 33% [1].

Core Viewpoint - Wanhua Chemical plans to increase its investment in Wanhua Olefins Company by 19.086 billion yuan, consolidating its ethylene-related assets to enhance operational management and competitiveness in the carbon two industry [2][3]. Group 1: Investment and Capital Structure - The capital increase includes 1 billion yuan added to registered capital and 18.086 billion yuan to capital reserves, raising Wanhua Olefins' registered capital from 3 billion yuan to 4 billion yuan, maintaining its status as a wholly-owned subsidiary of Wanhua Chemical [3]. - The total investment of 19.086 billion yuan consists of 1.4586 billion yuan in ethylene integration assets and 4.5 billion yuan in debt claims [2]. Group 2: Operational Enhancements - Wanhua Olefins Company focuses on the olefin industry chain and has successfully resumed production of qualified products from its 1 million tons/year ethylene unit after a recent technical upgrade [4]. - The upgrade shifts the raw material route from propane (C3) cracking to a more cost-effective ethane (C2) cracking, marking a significant transition in Wanhua Chemical's "Big Ethylene" strategy towards cost reduction and efficiency [4]. Group 3: Market Position and Future Prospects - By the end of 2025, China's ethylene production capacity is expected to exceed 62 million tons/year, accounting for approximately 25% of global capacity, positioning China as the largest ethylene producer [6]. - Despite a significant increase in production capacity, the C2 industry chain faces severe supply-demand imbalances, with many products experiencing weak market conditions [6]. - Wanhua Chemical is also developing high-end polyolefin materials, with a current production capacity of 200,000 tons/year for POE and plans for expansion to 600,000 tons/year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment rating for the chemical industry, highlighting the potential benefits from the "dual carbon" policy implementation [5]. Core Insights - The "dual carbon" policy is expected to significantly impact the chemical industry, with a focus on carbon emissions control becoming a rigid constraint during the 14th Five-Year Plan period [6][14]. - The report identifies that the attention towards "dual carbon" from provincial leaders has increased by 137% since September 2025, indicating a shift in focus towards carbon emissions as a critical performance metric [7][18]. - The chemical industry is anticipated to undergo structural changes, with high carbon intensity sectors facing supply constraints, while low-carbon leaders are expected to benefit from the transition [8][30]. Summary by Sections 1. "14th Five-Year Plan": Carbon Peak Closing Battle - Local carbon assessments may treat carbon emissions as an equally important rigid constraint [15]. - High carbon intensity sectors such as ammonia fertilizer, coal chemical, and chlorine-alkali are likely to face capacity constraints first [29][30]. 2. Petrochemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - The petrochemical sector is expected to undergo a transformation driven by the "dual carbon" goals, with a focus on optimizing supply and demand structures [38]. - Refining sector dynamics are shifting towards improved supply-demand balance due to stringent approval processes for new projects and the elimination of high-energy-consuming capacities [38]. 3. Basic Chemical "Dual Carbon" Opportunities - Coal chemical industry is projected to stabilize supply under carbon limits, driving quality improvements in the sector [3.1]. - Carbon fiber and fluorochemical sectors are expected to benefit from process optimization and green transitions [3.2][3.3]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three categories of leading companies: 1. Integrated leaders in the oil chemical sector with scale and efficiency advantages [8]. 2. Coal chemical leaders with advanced processes and low emissions [8]. 3. High-quality firms in fluorochemical and carbon fiber sectors that align with "dual carbon" goals [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, international oil prices rebounded significantly. The OPEC+ is expected to continue the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in February. Although the traditional demand peak season continues, the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong due to the background of supply - demand surplus. [5][124][127] - The polyester industry chain is affected by the Spring Festival. In February, the demand will decline first and then rebound rapidly. The decline in demand has limited negative impact on prices, and the main influencing factor lies in the supply side. If the supply does not increase significantly, the price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. [8][10] - In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong in February, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve in the short - term. In the long - term, the new production capacity of filament and staple fiber will increase in 2026, and the production profits may be under long - term pressure. The profit of coal - based ethylene glycol improved in January and still has room for improvement in the future. [128] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Market Review - In January, the prices of polyester industry chain varieties fluctuated greatly. PX price was relatively weak, while PTA and bottle chips were relatively strong. Ethylene glycol, which performed poorly in 2025, rebounded significantly in January. [16] - **PX**: The PX price was affected by the tight PTA supply since the fourth quarter of 2025. In January 2026, the PX price was weakly correlated with crude oil. The PX futures had a maximum cumulative increase of 23.2% from the lowest point in October 2025 to the highest point in January 2026. [17][19] - **PTA**: In January, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points compared with December 2025. The PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, but the stocking speed was relatively moderate. The PTA futures price increased slightly more than PX from the low point in October 2025 to the high point in January 2026. [20][22][24] - **MEG**: In January, the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased slightly. The oil - based ethylene glycol profit improved slightly, and the coal - based ethylene glycol profit approached the break - even point. The ethylene glycol price rebounded rapidly from a low level. The maximum cumulative increase from the lowest point in late December to the highest point in January was 12%. [25][26] - **Staple Fiber**: In January, the staple fiber operating rate increased significantly. Affected by the price increase of PTA and ethylene glycol, the staple fiber processing fee was poor. The staple fiber price increased, but the increase was slightly lower than the increase in polymerization cost. [27][32] - **Bottle Chips**: In January, the bottle chip operating rate continued to decline, reaching a low level in recent years. Although the domestic bottle chip demand was in the off - season, the supply contraction offset the weak demand, and the bottle chip profit was relatively strong. [33][35] 3.2 OPEC+ Suspends Production Increase Policy, but the Expectation of Supply Surplus Remains - **Geopolitical Instability and Weather Factors**: In early January 2026, the OPEC+ meeting confirmed the policy of suspending crude oil production increase in the first quarter of 2026. It is expected that the meeting on February 1 will maintain this policy. Geopolitical factors such as the relations between the US and Venezuela and Iran will affect the crude oil supply expectation, but the impact on supply is weak under the background of global crude oil supply surplus. The cold weather in January affected the oil production in the US and Kazakhstan, but the impact is short - term. [36][37] - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: The EIA raised the global crude oil production forecast for 2026 to 10765000 barrels per day in January, an increase of 23000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA significantly lowered the 2026 demand forecast by 34000 barrels per day compared with the December forecast. The EIA predicted a supply surplus of 2830000 barrels per day in 2026 and 2080000 barrels per day in 2027. [37][39][42] - **Oil Price Trends**: In January, international oil prices rebounded significantly, with a cumulative increase of more than 14%. The winter heating demand will continue in February, and oil prices are still expected to rise. However, under the background of supply surplus, attention should be paid to the risk of oil prices falling after rising. [43][50][52] 3.3 Low Operating Rates in Multiple Links, with a Decline Expected in Spring Maintenance - **No New Production Capacity Pressure in the Short - Term, but Many Equipment Maintenance Plans**: In the first quarter of 2026, there are no new production plans for PX, PTA, and ethylene glycol. The operating rate changes will affect the supply. The spring maintenance of petrochemical equipment around March usually has a greater impact on the operating rates of PX and PTA. Currently, the PX operating rate is high, and the PTA operating rate is low. [53][54][61] - **Ethylene Glycol Supply Expected to Decline, and Import Cost May Rise**: In 2026, there are three new ethylene glycol production devices planned to be put into operation, but there is a possibility of delay. The ethylene glycol operating rate is expected to continue to decline, and the supply is expected to decrease. The import cost may rise due to the increase in natural gas prices. [69][71][79] 3.4 Demand Affected by Seasonal Factors, Polyester Operating Rate to Decline First and Then Rebound - **Demand Fluctuations Concentrated in February, with Good Long - Term Demand**: In January 2026, the demand for the polyester industry chain continued to decline. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound rapidly. In the long - run, the industry chain demand is generally good. [80] - **PTA Expected to Stock Moderately, Ethylene Glycol Inventory Still under Pressure to Increase**: In January, the PTA social inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase, but the stocking speed slowed down. In February, the PTA stocking speed may accelerate, but it is expected to be moderate. The ethylene glycol inventory still has the pressure to increase, but the decline in the operating rate may offset the stocking pressure. [91][92][94] - **Poor Profits of Polyester Products, Difficult to Improve in the Short - Term**: In January, the polymerization cost increased, and the demand for polyester products first increased and then decreased. The processing fees of filament and staple fiber were poor, while the processing fee of bottle chips increased slightly. In the short - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber are expected to be relatively poor, and the pressure on the profits of filament and staple fiber is still high in the long - term. [95][96][97] - **Seasonal Stocking of Filament, Supply Decline to Offset Stocking Pressure**: In 2025, the export volumes of major polyester products such as filament, bottle chips, and staple fiber increased year - on - year. In January 2026, the filament inventory showed a differentiation trend, and the stocking situation will continue in February. The staple fiber inventory was relatively good in January, but there is still stocking pressure in February. [101][103][109] - **Greater Fluctuations in Loom Operating Rate, and the Downstream Prosperity May Increase**: Before the Spring Festival, the operating rates of pure polyester yarn and looms will decline to the lowest point, and then rebound rapidly after the festival. The average operating rate of looms in 2026 is expected to be higher than that in 2024. [112][113] 3.5 Domestic Demand for Textile and Apparel Expected to Increase, and the Export Market May Improve - **Low Growth Rate of Domestic Textile and Apparel Demand in 2025, Expected to Accelerate in 2026**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's total retail sales of consumer goods was 3.7%, and the growth rate in December was 0.9%. The domestic retail sales of textile and apparel in December 2025 increased by 0.6% year - on - year. With the implementation of domestic demand - promoting policies, the domestic demand for textile and apparel is expected to grow faster in 2026. [118][120] - **Easing of Global Economic and Trade Relations Conducive to the Recovery of Textile and Apparel Exports**: In 2025, China's total export value increased by 5.5% year - on - year. The total export value of textile and apparel decreased by 2.4% year - on - year, with textile exports increasing by 0.5% and clothing exports decreasing by 5%. Affected by the US tariff policy, clothing exports decreased in 2025, and are expected to recover in 2026. [121][122] 3.6 Summary and Outlook - **Summary**: In January 2026, international oil prices strengthened. PX and PTA prices were weak at the beginning of the oil price rebound due to the decline in polyester industry chain demand. The sharp rise in overseas natural gas prices boosted the ethylene glycol price. In January, the PX operating rate was stable, the PTA average monthly operating rate increased, the ethylene glycol average monthly operating rate decreased slightly, and the polyester operating rate continued to decline. The PTA inventory changed from destocking to stocking, and the ethylene glycol inventory continued to increase. The profits of PX and PTA were good, and the profits of filament were poor. [124][125][126] - **Outlook**: In February 2026, the OPEC+ may continue to suspend crude oil production increase. The traditional demand peak season continues, but the upward momentum of oil prices is not strong. The polyester industry chain demand will decline due to the Spring Festival, and the operating rates of polyester and looms will decline first and then rebound. The price decline due to seasonal demand drop is a buying opportunity. The ethylene glycol inventory may continue to increase, and attention should be paid to the decline in the operating rate. In the short - term, the profits of PX, PTA, and bottle chips are still strong, while the profits of filament are difficult to improve. In the long - term, the profits of filament and staple fiber may be under pressure. [127][128]

| 第一部分 | 基本面情况 | 3 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 一、芳烃板块氛围走强，下旬 PX、TA 增仓上涨 | 3 | | | 二、乙二醇低位反弹，低价对供应变动较为敏感 | 8 | | | 三、临近春节聚酯检修停车增多，江浙终端开机下降 | 10 | | | 四、关于石脑油消费税对化工供给侧的影响 | 12 | | 第二部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 13 | | 免责声明 | | 14 | 聚酯研发报告 聚酯 2 月报 2026 年 1 月 30 日 聚酯淡季创新高，需求端跟进不足 【行情回顾】 1 月下旬，PX、TA 期货增仓上涨，估值在去年 12 月末拉升后伴随着一段 时间的震荡回调再次走高。淡季聚酯原料创新高，核心因素就是资金基于 TA 的 投产周期结束，随着行业产能扩张收尾，25 年虹港石化 3 期 250 万吨装置于 6 月投产，三房巷 3 期 320 万吨装置两条线分别于 7、8 月投产，独山能源 4 期 300 万吨装置于 10 月投产，全年新增产能累计 870 万吨，截至目前中国大陆地 区 PTA 产能基数调整至 9209 万吨。PTA2026年迎来投产真 ...

Summary of Satellite Chemical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Satellite Chemical - **Industry**: Chemical and Petrochemical Key Points Industry and Market Dynamics - Satellite Chemical has a complete carbon three and carbon two industrial chain, ensuring stable supply and cost advantages through a joint venture with ET Energy for raw materials like ethane [2][4] - The global high-end polyethylene market is experiencing a supply contraction, with domestic production facing regulatory challenges, leading to a structural shortage in high-end polyethylene, where China's self-sufficiency rate is only 65% [2][5][6] - The domestic high-end polyethylene and POE products are heavily reliant on imports, with metallocene polyethylene self-sufficiency below 20% [3][9] Strategic Initiatives - Satellite Chemical is advancing the Alpha-Olefin comprehensive utilization project, which includes a 100,000-ton Alpha-Olefin and a 900,000-ton polyethylene facility, expected to generate over 33 billion yuan in revenue upon full production [2][6][7] - The company plans to invest over 20 billion yuan in total for the Alpha-Olefin project, with the first phase involving over 10 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - R&D investment is set to reach 1.75 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7.69%, supporting long-term stable development [2][7] - The company has shown continuous improvement in gross and net profit margins, with a healthy debt-to-asset ratio of approximately 55% and increasing operating cash flow [7] Competitive Advantages - With the rising global demand for clean energy, Satellite Chemical has a competitive edge due to its low-carbon emission pathways and hydrogen by-products, which are crucial for future clean energy developments [8][9] - The company is increasing R&D efforts to innovate new materials, further solidifying its market position [8][9] Future Outlook - The focus for Satellite Chemical will be on enhancing the carbon three and carbon two industrial chains and expanding into downstream products like POE [7][16] - The company is well-positioned for long-term growth due to its comprehensive industrial chain layout and cost advantages in C2 business [16] Additional Insights - Global alpha-olefin production capacity is approximately 9.1 million tons, with North America accounting for 62% of the specialized production capacity [11] - The global POE market consumption reached 1.6 million tons in 2023, with a compound growth rate exceeding 7%, while China's consumption is projected to approach 900,000 tons by 2024, with a compound growth rate over 22% [14] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction, market conditions, and financial health of Satellite Chemical.

Report Summary - **Report Date**: January 30, 2026 [1] - **Analyst**: He Xiaoqin, Investment Consulting Qualification Number: Z0017709 [1] Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Unilateral upward trend, recommend reverse calendar spread strategy [1][5] - PTA: Supported by cost, unilateral upward trend [1][6] - MEG: Upward trend [1][6] Core Views - **PX**: With continuous rise in crude oil prices and overall valuation increase in the chemical sector, the medium - term unilateral trend is upward. Before the Spring Festival, there are more pullbacks, and a reverse calendar spread strategy is recommended. Supply is abundant after the restart of the 800,000 - ton Zhonghua Quanzhou plant. The trading logic is mainly on the capital side, and downstream pre - festival rigid procurement demand drives up prices [5]. - **PTA**: The unilateral trend is upward with the continuous rise in crude oil prices. Pay attention to the 5,100 - 5,200 support range. Future supply and demand will be weak, and inventory will accumulate. Some polyester plants plan to increase production cuts in February, weakening the rigid demand for PTA. There is pressure above 5,500, but there will be support around 5,100. Short the processing margin on rallies [6]. - **MEG**: Buy on dips and trade in the 3,800 - 4,200 range. Supply pressure remains high, and port inventory has increased to 860,000 tons. However, considering basis and calendar spread can cover storage costs, the downside is limited. There will be more coal - based plant maintenance during the Spring Festival, and supply will decrease marginally. The short - term trend is upward, but the upside is limited. Pay attention to the 5 - 9 reverse calendar spread during the rally [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market | Futures | Yesterday's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Month Spread | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX Main | 7482 | -34 | -0.45% | PX5 - 9 | 16 | 28 | -12 | | PTA Main | 5332 | -38 | -0.71% | PTA5 - 9 | -18 | 6 | -24 | | MEG Main | 3957 | -13 | -0.33% | MEG5 - 9 | -97 | -96 | -1 | | PF Main | 6720 | -28 | -0.41% | PF3 - 4 | -56 | -48 | -8 | | SC Main | 472.5 | 12.2 | 2.65% | SC2 - 3 | -7.8 | -2.1 | -5.7 | [2] Spot Market | Spot | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX CFR China ($/ton) | 921.33 | 923.5 | -2.17 | | PTA East China (Yuan/ton) | 5250 | 5250 | 0 | | MEG Spot | 3837 | 3843 | -6 | | Naphtha MOPJ | 596 | 584.5 | 11.5 | | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | 72.36 | 70 | 2.35 | [2] Spot Processing Margin | Processing Margin | Yesterday's Price | Previous Day's Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PX - Naphtha Spread | 357.42 | 339.67 | 17.75 | | PTA Processing Margin | 415.64 | 363.95 | 51.69 | | Short - Fiber Processing Margin | 120.64 | 142.01 | -21.37 | | Bottle - Chip Processing Margin | 211.39 | 199.35 | 12.03 | | MOPJ Naphtha - Dubai Crude Spread | -4.34 | -4.34 | 0 | [2] Fundamental Data - **PX**: Naphtha prices remained strong in the afternoon. PX prices were weak today. Two April spot deals were made at $924/ton CFR. The recent PX valuation is $921/ton CFR, down $3 from yesterday [3]. - **PTA**: There were no significant changes in PTA plants in mainland China this week. The PTA load on Thursday was 76.6%, and the operating rate was around 82.7% [3]. - **MEG**: As of January 29, the overall operating rate of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 74.38% (up 1.33% from the previous period), and the operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) was 81.79% (up 2.39% from the previous period). A 500,000 - ton/year MEG plant in Fujian restarted recently and is expected to produce products this weekend [3]. - **Polyester**: As the Spring Festival approaches, polyester plants have frequent changes. The overall polyester load has decreased. As of Thursday, the polyester load in mainland China was around 84.7%. The operating rate of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers remained stable, at around 75% [5]. Trend Intensity - PX Trend Intensity: 1 - PTA Trend Intensity: 1 - MEG Trend Intensity: 1 Note: The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2. - 2 means most bearish, and 2 means most bullish [5]

2026 年 01 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：50 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 | 1、《双融日报》2026-01-29 | | --- | | 2、《双融日报》2026-01-28 | | 3、《双融日报》2026-01-27 | ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 50 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：化工、银行、消费 1、化工主题："十五五"规划强调扩大内需，叠加美国降息 周期，化工品需求预期提升。行业供需双底基本确立，政策 助力产能出清，且资本开支连续两年负增长，供给端持续收 缩。市场普遍预计，2026 年化工行业将迎来周期拐点，有望 实现从估值修复到业绩增长的"戴维斯双击"，开启新一轮 上 升 周 期 。 相 关 标 的 ： 卫 星 化 学 （ 002648 ） 、 云 ...