| 第一部分 | 前言概要 | 2 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【氧化铝概要】 | | 2 | | | 【电解铝概要】 | | 2 | | | 【策略推荐】 | | 2 | | | 第二部分 | 氧化铝过剩幅度收窄 | 但成本及库存拖累仍在 | 3 | | 第三部分 | 铝价波动率下降 | 基本面关注需求预期兑现 | 9 | | 第四部分 | 后市展望及策略推荐 | 21 | | | | | 免责声明 | 23 | 铝及氧化铝 2 月月报 有色板块研发报告 2026 年 2 月 27 日 铝价波动率降低 氧化铝拖累仍在 第一部分 前言概要 【氧化铝概要】 氧化铝供给端在 1 月份开始出现部分实质性减产后，在 2 月份又出现预期外政策影响减 产，不过该企业在其他地区有焙烧中间品的能力，氧化铝产能净减量显著收窄了市场过剩幅度 但并未能逆转。2 月下游电解铝厂的原料库存季节性去库，氧化铝社会库存累库的 22 万吨中 有 17 余万吨被期货市场暂时消化，但整体近 35 万吨且仍将继续增加的仓单压力及仍有下降 空间的成本（虽然目前进口矿成交在 60 美元附近但企业仍在消化 65-70 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

有色金属日报 2026-2-27 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn 美伊谈判没有明显进展，原油震荡，隔夜美股科技股走弱，铜价震荡调整，昨日伦铜 3M 合约下跌 0.68%至 13259 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 102150 元/吨。昨日 LME 库存增加 3950 至 253600 吨， 增量来自北美 ...

记者梳理发现，近年来锰硅价格几次大涨多由锰矿端推动。去年海外锰矿发运也有扰动，导致锰硅价格 上涨，但持续性不强，随着发运的恢复，锰硅价格快速回落。 2月26日，锰硅期货主力2605合约收涨2.85%，报5918元/吨；硅铁期货主力2605合约收涨0.98%，报5538 元/吨。 当日，市场传出"南非2026年度预算案于2026年2月25日公布，锰矿电力成本上涨，7月1日开始征收15% 生态出口税"的消息。期货日报记者多方交叉求证，该消息为不实消息。 据记者了解，南非2026年度预算案中未提及锰矿电力成本上涨相关内容。预算案仅整体提及南非能源领 域的改革方向（稳定电力供应、引入私人投资、推动可再生能源），以及燃油税等整体能源税收的上 调，未针对锰矿行业单独调整电力成本。预算案中无"7月1日开始征收15%生态出口税"的任何条款。 一位不愿透露姓名的企业人士告诉记者，市场更多担忧的是供应。 "26日锰硅价格的上涨，更多是价格低位下对锰矿发运扰动的反应，下游需求及库存压力仍然较大。2— 3月海外锰矿发运出现延期、减量现象，工厂采购需求虽未完全展开，但锰矿价格支撑较强，节前工厂 备库较为充分，目前并不急于采购，预计3月 ...

"硅铁与锰硅虽同属铁合金，但硅铁生产中不涉及锰矿。因此，虽在锰硅带动下，硅铁价格有所上行， 但涨幅与锰硅有明显差距。硅铁自身供需和库存结构略好于锰硅，价格支撑也更强，库存压力较小，且 出口能缓解国内供应的部分压力。需要关注的是，未来随着海外产能的投放，出口压力也在逐步增 加。"段智栈说。 关于当前锰矿产销情况，国投期货黑色金属高级分析师李啸尘告诉记者，South32涉及在南非的锰矿开 采和销售业务。从South32最新报告来看，生产维持正常水平，长期目标为恢复至2024年澳大利亚矿山 遭遇不可抗力之前的水平。Eramet产量维持正常水平，但加蓬铁路运力一般，该公司从2025年开始已经 同比下调了发运计划，目前未计划上调发运目标。 对于锰硅和硅铁后市，李啸尘认为，从时间节点来看，目前锰硅和硅铁都面临钢厂月度招标，价格上涨 更有利于行业长期发展。历史上每一次硅铁或者锰硅价格的单独上涨时，另一个品种都会出现同方向的 跟随，从而使二者之间的价差不至于太大。目前锰硅和硅铁的基本面都面临供应过剩的扰动，主要是供 应端都有新增产能等待投放。 "在成本支撑及供需博弈下，短期锰硅、硅铁价格仍将延续区间震荡格局。需求端，国内粗钢 ...

文字早评 2026/02/26 星期四 2、津巴布韦宣布即日起暂停锂精矿及原矿出口，旨在推进矿产资源本地化加工； 3、SK 海力士，计划到 2030 年前在韩国龙仁市投资约 150.7 亿美元，新建芯片生产线； 4、海光公布业绩，2025 年营收同比+56.91%，净利润+31.66%，国产高端芯片市场需求持续攀升，预计 2026 年 Q1 营收同比增长 62.91%-75.82%，净利润同比增长 22.56%-42.32%。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：1.35%/1.26%/3.81%/4.01%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.24%/1.01%/4. 83%/4.90%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：3.50%/4.16%/9.70%/8.43%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-1.53%/-0.94%/0.23%/2.32%。 【策略观点】 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、特朗普宣布将通过其他法律途径持续加征关税，并明确提出以关税收入取代个人所得税，同时宣称 石油日产量增加 60 万桶、核心通胀降至五年最低； 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 112.700 ，环比 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：国投期货 South32 South32在2025年四季度锰矿产量为136.3万吨，同比增加21.26%，环比下降2.99%。澳洲矿山2026财年 产量计划仍然为320万吨。南非矿山生产目标维持200万吨。 Eramet-Comilog Comilog四季度产量为168万吨，同比抬升35.81%，环比下降10.35%。由于铁路运输仍存问题，锰矿运 输量较难抬升高水平。 整体来看，Comilog较难上调发运目标，我国锰矿累库水平相对一般，锰矿价格较难大幅下行。 表1：两大矿山产销数据（万吨） 澳大利亚产区在2026财年上半年可销售产量增至166万吨，得益于热带气旋"梅根"影响后复产计划的顺 利执行，该运营单元实现了规划产量。2026财年产量指引维持在320万吨不变，具体取决于雨季可能带 来的影响。随着新码头基础设施投入使用，2026财年上半年销量增至181万吨，发运能力已达满负荷状 态，从而实现了计划中的库存消耗。 南非产区在2026财年上半年可销售产量同比减少2%（2.5万吨）至106万吨，主要反映了Wessels矿山的 计划性维护及深部 ...

有色金属日报 2026-2-25 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 陈逸 春节前美股下跌和美国可能降低或取消金属关税的传闻令贵金属、有色金属下跌，当前看美国仍将维 持关税政策，且 232 调查不受最高法裁决的影响，加之贵金属价格偏强，情绪面仍有支撑。产业上 看铜矿供应维持紧张，而国内冶炼开工率偏高和下游消费淡季背景下精炼铜供应相对过剩，近月交 割压力加大构成阶段阻力，短期铜价预计转为震荡。今日沪铜主力合约参考：100000-102500 元/吨； 伦铜 3M 运行区间参考：12900-13300 美元/吨 ...

文字早评 2026/02/24 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、美伊冲突走向愈加悲观，伊朗石油储量为全球第三并控制霍尔木兹海峡，多位分析师预测油价将大 幅上涨； 2、国内 AI 大模型与机器人借春晚实现全民出圈，京东等平台销量数据更是提供了业绩验证； 3、人民币汇率强势升值至 6.89 区间，股债汇三市联动向好，外资回流趋势确立； 4、荣耀将推出首款人形机器人，聚焦消费市场；SK 海力士 DRAM 及 NAND 库存仅剩约 4 周，今年所有客 户的需求都无法得到完全满足。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/9.13%/10.00%/6.60%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/3.80%/10.30%/7.40%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/2.46%/14.22%/10.51%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-/6.02%/3.43%/3.89%。 期，据此计算，单日净投放 1135 亿元。 【策略观点】 近日在美伊冲突扰动全球风险偏好、美国关税政策反转释放外需预期的背景下，叠加人民币汇率强势升 值带动外资流入、大模型发布潮与机器人出圈，股指有望先迎来一波偏强表现。 ...

美银维持对铜价的强烈看好，预计铜价将达到15000美元/吨。该机构认为，当前正处于盈利上调周期的 第7个月，经过三年的下调后，不仅铜和黄金，煤炭、镍、锌也在迎来上调。投资者应关注这一板块的 配置机会，基金经理调查显示该板块已转为超配。 战略转向铜：行业共识已形成 美银研究团队在分析2025年业绩后发现，所有大型矿商都希望获得更多铜增长机会。 BHP已成为最典型案例——铜业务的盈利贡献现已超过铁矿石，成为集团最大盈利来源。BHP声称在大 型多元化矿商中，对铜价每磅上涨1美元的EBITDA敏感度最高。尽管BHP已是全球最大铜生产商，但 公司仍计划通过棕地和绿地项目组合，在2030年代中期将铜产量提升至超过200万吨/年。 美银证券在其最新发布的全球大型矿业公司研报中指出，一个明确的行业趋势正在形成：全球矿业巨头 正在集体转向铜资产。 在2025年业绩季后，美银分析师团队观察到，从BHP、力拓到嘉能可，几乎所有主要矿业公司都将铜 作为战略重点，资本支出正在大幅攀升，目前已恢复至此前峰值的50%以上。 在具体项目层面，BHP正在推进与Lundin Mining的Vicuña合资项目，第一阶段预计耗资70-80亿美元， ...