1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Middle - East situation shows no sign of easing, with crude oil prices rising strongly. Driven by this, black - series commodity prices are running strongly in the short term. Although the market's supply - demand is recovering with increasing production and demand, inventory is still rising, and the market has relatively weak expectations for this year's demand and a pessimistic view of the fundamentals. The sharp rise in crude oil has pushed up costs, and the "Two Sessions" policies did not exceed market expectations. Technically, the futures price has broken through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, and it is likely to maintain a volatile and strong trend in the short term. For trading, it is recommended to go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. - The iron ore market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to gradually recover after the "Two Sessions" and with the arrival of the consumption season. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has increased production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Rumors of tightened liquidity in the spot market have led to an accelerated rise in iron ore prices. There are also rumors that BHP's Newman powder has been added to the spot restriction list, which has a short - term impact on market supply. With the improvement of the weather, shipments are gradually rising to a high level, and the port inventory has reached a record high. Technically, the futures price has rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and the medium - term downward trend may end. It is recommended to try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Threaded Rods and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coils increased by 0.35% and 0.40% respectively compared to the previous day, and 1.43% and 1.77% respectively compared to last week. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils also showed certain changes, with the rebar spot price in Shanghai down 0.31% from the previous day but up 0.63% from last week, and the hot - rolled coil spot price unchanged from the previous day but up 0.93% from last week [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The total output of the five major varieties of the 247 sample steel mills increased last week, and the inventory continued to rise. The apparent demand rebounded from the low point of the year. The national building materials steel mill's rebar output increased by 4.97% compared to last week, while the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.75%. The social inventory of the five major varieties increased by 8.29%, and the apparent demand increased by 23.68% [2][3]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Go long with a light position on dips and be cautious about chasing up [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Price Changes**: The settlement price of the main DCE iron ore contract increased by 0.45% compared to the previous day and 4.72% compared to last week. The prices of various iron ore powders in ports also showed different degrees of increase [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The market is entering the consumption season. Although the daily average hot - metal output decreased last week, it is expected to recover. The supply side is affected by rumors, and shipments are gradually rising with the improvement of the weather. The port inventory has reached a record high [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Try to go long with a light position on dips during the price correction [5]. 3.3 Industry News - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports was 17187.52 tons, a week - on - week increase of 69.66 tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 317.90 tons, an increase of 6.82 tons; the number of ships in port was 110, a decrease of 2 [7]. - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.34%, a week - on - week increase of 0.63 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 82.92%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.40 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.65 percentage points; the daily average hot - metal output was 221.2 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.39 tons [7]. - According to China Metallurgical News, the rebound of iron ore prices at the end of February was more of an emotional and technical repair rather than based on the improvement of supply - demand fundamentals, and the upward movement lacks a supporting basis. Under the real pressure of continuous oversupply, the upside space of iron ore prices has been firmly capped [7].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the investment outlook following the National People's Congress (NPC) in China, highlighting key market indicators and expert opinions on various asset classes for March 2026 [3][5]. Group 1: Key Market Indicators - The article identifies several key market indicators including the CSI 300 Index, STAR 50 Index, Hang Seng Index, US stocks, US Dollar Index, gold prices, housing prices in first-tier cities, and oil prices as benchmarks for market predictions [3][15]. - Historical data shows that during the NPC, the market's performance tends to decline, with a lower winning rate compared to the week prior [4]. Group 2: March Investment Opportunities - March is characterized as a critical window for wealth allocation, coinciding with several important financial events such as earnings reports, real estate activity, and central bank meetings [6][7]. - The "earnings report season" in March often shifts market sentiment from aggressive to defensive, as investors seek to avoid underperforming stocks [8]. - The real estate market typically sees increased activity in March and April, driven by school enrollment considerations and government policy interventions [9][11]. Group 3: Expert Opinions on Asset Classes - For the CSI 300 Index, opinions are divided, with 4 experts bullish, 3 bearish, and 1 neutral, citing macroeconomic factors and high historical valuations as risks [18]. - The STAR 50 Index has the highest bullish sentiment, with 62.5% of experts expecting a rebound after a period of underperformance [20]. - The outlook for US stocks is predominantly bearish, with 50% of experts predicting declines due to high valuations and geopolitical tensions [23]. - The Hang Seng Index shows mixed opinions, with equal numbers of experts bullish and bearish, reflecting ongoing uncertainties in the market [25]. - Gold is viewed with caution, as experts are split on its future performance, balancing its inflation-hedging properties against potential geopolitical easing [28]. - The US Dollar Index has unanimous support against bearish sentiment, with experts citing inflation and monetary policy as key drivers [31]. - Oil prices are expected to face volatility, with experts cautious about potential geopolitical resolutions impacting prices [33]. - The outlook for housing prices in first-tier cities is uncertain, with most experts indicating a lack of clear direction and a tendency to remain at the bottom [35]. Group 4: Investment Strategies - The article suggests a diversified asset allocation strategy, categorizing investments into risk assets (stocks and real estate), defensive assets (bank products and bonds), and safe-haven assets (gold) [40][42]. - The most favored asset is the STAR 50 ETF, followed by "HALO" concept stocks and consumer ETFs, indicating a preference for technology and consumer sectors [44]. - Experts recommend a cautious approach to investing, focusing on quality assets and avoiding speculative positions in the current volatile environment [56][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The current fundamentals of the black - series are significantly weaker than pre - holiday expectations. The short - term core contradiction lies in inventory digestion and demand verification. Before the real demand in the peak season is confirmed, prices are likely to remain in a range - bound and weak operation. Attention should be paid to high - frequency indicators such as construction site resumption rates and daily cement and building material consumption [3] - The short - term escalation of the US - Iran situation has driven up the prices of oil, gas, and chemical sectors, shifting the overall commodity sentiment towards the bullish side. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate. Looking for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and high - elasticity varieties may be a better choice [10][16] - For the medium - to long - term, the report is still optimistic about coking coal prices, especially during the period from June to October when factors such as the safety - production month and peak consumption season overlap [16] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3119 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton (1.003%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 16,951 tons, a net increase of 305 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.7408 million lots, a net decrease of 57,900 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3270 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton (1.238%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 478,116 tons, a net increase of 5901 tons. The main contract's open interest was 1.2926 million lots, a net decrease of 106,185 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3270 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and that in Shanghai was 3260 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [2] - **Strategy Views** - Macro - policies provide medium - term support for steel demand, but the incremental pull on steel demand is relatively limited. The demand for hot - rolled coils has declined this week, and the inventory is accumulating. The supply and demand of rebar are both increasing, but the inventory accumulation rate is relatively fast. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound and weak [3] Iron Ore - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 784.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.62% (+12.50). The open interest changed by - 14,997 lots to 473,300 lots. The weighted open interest was 872,700 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 36.22 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.41% [4] - **Strategy Views** - Overseas ore shipments have declined, while near - end arrivals have rebounded. The daily pig iron output has decreased, and the steel mill profit rate has declined. The port inventory is basically flat, and the steel mill inventory is decreasing. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate [5] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Quotes** - On March 9, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose more than 4% in the morning and then fell back, finally closing up 0.03% at 6132 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5950 yuan/ton, with a basis of 8 yuan/ton [8] - The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose more than 5% in the morning and then fell, closing down 0.20% at 5868 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 382 yuan/ton [8] - **Strategy Views** - In the short term, due to the escalation of the US - Iran situation, short - selling operations may be inappropriate. Manganese silicon has a loose supply - demand pattern, and ferrosilicon has good fundamentals. Future market trends will be affected by the overall black - series direction, cost - push factors of manganese ore, and supply contraction of ferrosilicon [10][11] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Quotes** - On March 9, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) rose by the daily limit in the morning and then gave back some gains, finally closing up 4.01% at 1168.0 yuan/ton [13] - The main contract of coke (J2605) rose more than 6.5% and then fell, closing up 2.62% at 1740.0 yuan/ton [13] - **Strategy Views** - The escalation of the US - Iran situation and the "Two Sessions" have a slightly positive impact on coking coal. In the short term, downstream de - stocking and increasing supply will restrict the price increase. In the medium - to long - term, prices are expected to rise from June to October [15][16] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Quotes** - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8670 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.23% (-20). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 32,429 lots to 353,337 lots [18] - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 42,700 yuan/ton, with a change of +3.86% (+1585). The weighted contract's open interest changed by - 2067 lots to 55,685 lots [21] - **Strategy Views** - In March, industrial silicon may see a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but it is difficult to reduce high inventory. Prices are expected to fluctuate or rebound. Polysilicon also shows a pattern of both supply and demand increasing, but inventory reduction may be limited. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate [20][22] Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Quotes** - The main contract of glass closed at 1104 yuan/ton on Monday, up 1.56% (+17). The inventory of float glass sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 79.637 million boxes, up 4.77% [24] - The main contract of soda ash closed at 1276 yuan/ton on Monday, up 2.74% (+34). The inventory of soda ash sample enterprises in the week of March 5 was 1.9472 million tons, up 4.77% [26] - **Strategy Views** - The situation in the Middle East has led to a bullish commodity sentiment. The demand for glass has slightly improved, and the price is expected to be in the range of 1070 - 1171 yuan/ton [25] - The current rise in soda ash is mainly driven by cost, and the demand has not improved substantially. The price in March is expected to fluctuate with the coal - chemical sector, in the range of 1230 - 1330 yuan/ton [27]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term and medium - term view of IH2603 is "oscillation", and the intraday view is "bullish", with a reference view of "range - bound oscillation" due to the implementation of favorable policies during the Two Sessions [1]. - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". The core logic for the long - term upward movement of stock indices is the policy support for aggregate demand and technological innovation and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds. In the short term, due to the implementation of favorable policies in the government work report of the Two Sessions, the approaching of the earnings report disclosure season, and the uncertainty of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, the stock indices will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is "oscillation", the medium - term is "oscillation", the intraday is "bullish", and the view reference is "range - bound oscillation" with the core logic of favorable policies during the Two Sessions [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "range - bound oscillation". Last Friday, each stock index oscillated and rose slightly. The A - share trading volume was 2.22 trillion yuan, down from 2.41 trillion yuan the previous day. As the impact of the Middle East geopolitical crisis is gradually digested, the stock index trend returns to its fundamentals. Policy support and continuous net inflow of funds are the core logics for the long - term upward movement of stock indices. In the short term, due to multiple factors, the stock indices will oscillate within a range [5].

Report Overview - Report Title: Daily Core Futures Variety Analysis - Release Date: March 6, 2026 - Data Sources: Wind, Guantong Research and Consulting Department 1. Market Performance Futures Market Overview - As of the close on March 6, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Caustic soda, pure benzene, and styrene (EB) hit the daily limit. PVC and ethylene glycol (EG) rose over 5%. Low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), propylene, polypropylene (PP), synthetic rubber, p-xylene (PX), and PTA rose over 4%. Bottle chips and plastics rose nearly 4%. Glass, asphalt, and staple fibers rose over 3%. In terms of declines, container shipping to Europe and polysilicon fell over 4%, apples fell nearly 3%, and palladium fell nearly 2% [7][8]. Stock Index Futures - The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 0.60%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.29%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.23%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.38% [8]. Treasury Bond Futures - The main contract of 2-year Treasury Bond Futures (TS) fell 0.01%, the main contract of 5-year Treasury Bond Futures (TF) remained flat, the main contract of 10-year Treasury Bond Futures (T) rose 0.01%, and the main contract of 30-year Treasury Bond Futures (TL) rose 0.03% [8]. Capital Flow - As of 15:23 on March 6, in terms of capital inflow into domestic futures main contracts, soybean meal 2605 had an inflow of 934 million yuan, PTA2605 had an inflow of 508 million yuan, and PVC2605 had an inflow of 436 million yuan. In terms of capital outflow, Shanghai gold 2604 had an outflow of 5.387 billion yuan, CSI 1000 2603 had an outflow of 4.218 billion yuan, and CSI 2603 had an outflow of 3.114 billion yuan [8]. 2. Market Analysis Copper - Shanghai copper opened low and closed higher but ended the day with a decline. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 213,000, lower than expected and the layoff number dropped significantly. In February, SMM's electrolytic copper production in China decreased by 36,900 tons month-on-month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year-on-year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the demand for scrap copper in China is expected to increase. With the growth of demand, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports. The copper price has been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off-season in the industry and the copper price is high. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. Overall, the positive signals released by China's Two Sessions policies have limited support, the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates has been postponed, and the US dollar has shown a strengthening trend recently. With the drag from the fundamentals and macro interference, Shanghai copper is expected to operate in a stable and weak pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed higher, showing a volatile and slightly stronger trend. The average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 155,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 151,750 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Affected by seasonal production cuts and holiday production reductions at the upstream lithium carbonate raw material end, SMM expects the lithium carbonate production in February to be 81,900 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 16%. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate continued to decline, with a reduction of about 720 tons this period, and the inventory decline rate narrowed. The downstream inventory turned to accumulation, indicating that the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking up is still high. Except for the inventory digestion and reduction during the holiday, the downstream inventory has been showing an accumulation trend in the short term. From a terminal perspective, at the end of January 2026, the inventory of the national passenger car industry was 3.57 million vehicles, a decrease of 80,000 vehicles compared to the previous month and an increase of 580,000 vehicles compared to January 2025. The Iran-US conflict has broken out, and military operations are still ongoing. The Iran conflict has affected the delivery of energy storage batteries in the Middle East. According to SMM estimates, the annual demand for energy storage cells in the entire Middle East region in 2026 is about 50 GWh, accounting for about 6% of the global total demand. The integrated demand is about 38 GWh, accounting for about 6.5% globally. Today's rebound is mainly a correction after a large decline. Although it is in a period when the off-season is not off, the strong demand expectation in the early stage has shown a gradual weakening trend, and it is difficult to reach a new high in the short term. Currently, lithium carbonate shows a trend of weakening demand growth rate and increasing supply resumption expectation. Although the downstream support is strong, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the market will mainly fluctuate widely [12]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ agreed to increase oil production by 206,000 barrels per day in April, and the further production increase plan has not been determined yet and may be adjusted later. This is mainly to cope with the significant decline in Iran's crude oil exports after it was attacked. OPEC+ will hold its next meeting on April 5. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventory exceeded expectations, the decrease in refined oil inventory was relatively small, and the overall oil product inventory continued to increase. Russia and Ukraine have not made substantial progress on core issues such as territory and ceasefire, and both sides are still attacking each other. On February 28, local time, the US and Israel launched an air strike on Iran, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei and several senior commanders of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran counterattacked Israeli and US military bases in the Middle East. Iran has a large crude oil production and export volume. Iran produces about 3.3 million barrels of crude oil per day, accounting for 3% of the global production, and exports about 1.6 million barrels per day on average. It is located at the Strait of Hormuz, an important sea route for crude oil transportation. In 2025, about 13 million barrels of crude oil passed through this strait every day, accounting for about 31% of the global seaborne crude oil flow. The passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz has been blocked. Iraqi oil officials said that due to the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz, the arrival of oil tankers has been hindered, resulting in full storage facilities. The daily production of Iraq's Rumaila oil field was cut by 700,000 barrels on Tuesday. At the same time, Iran said that if its energy facilities are attacked, all oil and gas facilities in the region will be destroyed. Qatar Energy's integrated facility in Ras Laffan, the world's largest liquefied natural gas export base, has been attacked by drones, and the company has stopped liquefied natural gas production. Trump said that the military operation against Iran may last for 4 to 5 weeks, but he also said that he is prepared for the "operation to last much longer than this period." Iran claims to be ready for a long-term war. Trump said that he will provide insurance for oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz and the navy will escort them if necessary. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is considering transferring crude oil to Yanbu Port on the Red Sea through the East - West Oil Pipeline. Iran's Deputy Commander of the Central Command said that Iran has not blocked the Strait of Hormuz. However, due to the limited transportation capacity of Yanbu Port and the obstruction of Red Sea shipping by the Houthi rebels, the specific effect of crude oil transportation remains to be observed. In addition, the US Treasury Department is expected to soon announce measures to deal with the soaring energy prices, including intervening in the oil futures market. The domestic crude oil price rose first and then fell. The situation in the Middle East has not cooled down. The UAE and Saudi Arabia may launch self - defense counterattacks against Iran. It is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate strongly in the near future. The development of the Middle East situation has a significant impact on crude oil price fluctuations, so pay attention to risk control and follow the development of the Middle East situation and the crude oil export situation in the Middle East [13][14]. Asphalt - On the supply side, the asphalt operating rate this week increased by 1.9 percentage points month-on-month to 23.3%, which is 3.1 percentage points lower than the same period last year and at a relatively low level in recent years. According to Longzhong Information data, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.187 million tons in March 2026, an increase of 251,000 tons month-on-month, a growth rate of 13.0%, and a decrease of 43,000 tons year-on-year, a decline rate of 1.9%. This week, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed work. The operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries increased. Among them, the operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points month-on-month to 8%, still lower than the level at the end of January. This week, refineries in Shandong Province resumed production, and the continuous increase in prices boosted the downstream's enthusiasm for stocking up, resulting in a significant increase in its sales volume. The national sales volume increased by 19.86% month-on-month to 156,300 tons, at a relatively low level. Just after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries have not fully resumed production, and the asphalt factory inventory has increased significantly. However, the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years. The asphalt price in Shandong Province has increased, but the basis is at a relatively low level. The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect the production and cost of domestic asphalt. There are reports that the Chinese quotation of large trader Vitol for Venezuelan crude oil has a discount of $5 per barrel, which is significantly smaller than the discount of $13 per barrel in December 2025. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased. However, it is expected that the flow of Venezuelan crude oil to the Indian market will increase, and China's imports of Venezuelan crude oil are still significantly lower than before the US intervention. Coupled with the current US - Israel attack on Iran, the supply of Iranian raw materials will be affected, and the market is worried about the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials in March. Pay attention to the shortage of domestic refinery raw materials. China's imports of Iranian asphalt are not large. Imports of asphalt from the Middle East such as the UAE and Iraq account for about half of the total asphalt imports, but only about 6% compared to China's asphalt production. Henan Fengli plans to resume production next week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. After the Lantern Festival, terminal demand will gradually recover. The supply and demand of asphalt itself will both increase. It is expected that the asphalt price will follow the increase in the crude oil price in the near future. Pay attention to the development of the Middle East situation [15][17]. PP (Polypropylene) - As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PP increased by 9.13 percentage points month-on-month to 45.87%. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre - holiday level. The overall downstream operating rate of PP shows seasonal changes. On March 6, there were not many changes in the maintenance devices, and the operating rate of PP enterprises remained at around 79%, at a relatively low level. The production ratio of standard grade drawn yarn decreased to around 26.5%. During the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has continued to decline after the Spring Festival holiday. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, after the US - Israel attack on Iran and Iran's counterattack against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the crude oil price increased significantly, which significantly boosted PP. Recently, there has been a slight increase in maintenance devices. After the Lantern Festival, the resumption of work in downstream factories has increased, and the rigid demand has been released intensively. The domestic supply - demand pattern of PP has improved. There is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Although PP does not rely on imports from the Middle East, its upstream depends on liquefied petroleum gas from the Middle East. The spot price, especially the export price, has increased significantly. It is expected that PP will fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the progress of the resumption of work in the PP downstream after the holiday [18]. Plastic - On March 6, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Fujian United were added, and the plastic operating rate decreased to around 90%. Currently, the operating rate is at a neutral to high level. As of the week of March 6, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 10.4 percentage points month-on-month to 28.62%. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to the pre - holiday level. The overall downstream operating rate of PE shows seasonal changes. During the Spring Festival, the petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons and has continued to decline after the Spring Festival holiday. Currently, the petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. On the cost side, after the US - Israel attack on Iran and Iran's counterattack against Israel and US military bases in the Middle East, the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, and the crude oil price increased significantly, which significantly boosted plastics. In terms of supply, BASF (Guangdong) FDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons/year and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA with a new production capacity of 300,000 tons/year were put into operation in January 2026. There are no plans to put new production capacity into operation in the first quarter. Recently, the plastic operating rate has decreased slightly. Currently, the resumption of work in the downstream is slow, and the purchasing willingness is weak. The prices of agricultural films in North China and East China have increased, while the prices of agricultural films in South China have remained stable. The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved. There is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry. The situation in the Middle East has boosted the energy and chemical industry. Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production. However, imports from the entire Middle East region account for about 20% of domestic production. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate strongly. Pay attention to the progress of the resumption of work in the downstream after the holiday [19][20]. PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - The price of calcium carbide in the upstream northwest region has remained stable. On the supply side, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.97 percentage points month-on-month to 81.11%. The PVC operating rate has started to decrease but is still at a neutral to high level in recent years. In the second week after the Spring Festival holiday, the average downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 18.73 percentage points to 35.84%, 3.14 percentage points higher than the same period last lunar year. Currently, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are gradually resuming production. In terms of exports, the export orders have rebounded slightly after the holiday, but most export enterprises have completed their pre - sales in March. Coupled with the cancellation of export tax rebates on April 1, it is expected that PVC export orders will be at a low level in March. In addition, India has launched an anti - subsidy tax investigation, and the export expectation of PVC has decreased. The social inventory increased significantly during the Spring Festival holiday and continued to increase last week. It is still relatively high, and the inventory pressure is still large. From January to December 2025, the real estate industry was still in the adjustment stage, and the year - on - year decline rates of investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas were still large. The year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion further declined. The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased month-on-month. After the Spring Festival holiday, the commercial housing transactions improved but are still at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The improvement of the real estate industry still takes time. The comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have decreased. However, the current production decline is limited, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level. The social inventory continues to increase, and the calcium carbide price continues to fall. However, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment said that it will focus on key links such as the research and development of

Core Conclusions - The report emphasizes the need to focus on geopolitical uncertainties, tariffs, and liquidity disturbances while awaiting volatility to stabilize. Domestically, attention is directed towards the government work report and the 14th Five-Year Plan, with a continuous verification of economic recovery, particularly in social financing and prices. The A-share market is expected to experience oscillating rotations, with a balanced style, focusing on defensive, cyclical price increases, and structural opportunities in technology themes [4][31]. A-share Strategy - March is identified as a critical verification period for policies and the economy, with a focus on new insights from the Two Sessions and ongoing verification of economic recovery. Key signals from the Two Sessions include: 1) a growth target range of 4.5%-5% with an emphasis on quality and price; 2) the launch of major projects and new policy financial tools to support the year; 3) initiatives for increasing residents' income and enhancing social security to promote consumption and domestic demand; 4) optimizing existing resources and fostering new growth drivers [5][7]. - The report outlines a calendar effect for the Two Sessions, indicating a pattern of pre-meeting increases, mid-meeting adjustments, and post-meeting recoveries, with styles shifting from stability to financial, growth, and consumer sectors [5][25]. Industry Selection - Three main structural opportunities are highlighted: 1) Defensive sectors (high dividend stocks, oil and petrochemicals, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery); 2) Cyclical price increases (coal, steel, chemicals, non-ferrous metals); 3) Technology themes (AI, commercial aerospace, future energy, quantum technology, and embodied intelligence) [5][29][43]. - The report notes that the performance of the A-share market is influenced by external geopolitical uncertainties and domestic policy support, leading to a balanced growth and value style, with opportunities remaining in small and mid-cap stocks after adjustments [42][37]. Economic Window - March marks the beginning of a verification period for economic recovery, with a focus on financial data, exports, retail sales, real estate, infrastructure, and price data. Key attention is on whether financial data from February can continue to improve and the extent of demand recovery in exports, retail sales, and real estate [9][10]. Valuation Insights - The report indicates that the overall valuation of the A-share market has reached a new high in the current bull market, with a PE-TTM of 23.74 as of March 1, 2026, still having a 3% upside potential compared to the previous bull market peak of 24.47 [15][16]. Liquidity Trends - Public and wealth management products have shown significant growth at the beginning of the year, with a notable increase in new issuances and net subscriptions, indicating a strong influx of funds into the market. The report anticipates that the trend of residents moving deposits into wealth management products will continue [20][23].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The records primarily discuss the macroeconomic policies and industry outlook for 2026, focusing on various sectors including real estate, aviation, commercial aerospace, and consumer spending. Core Points and Arguments Macroeconomic Policy Adjustments - The GDP growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to 4.5%-5%, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" average growth requirement of 4.17% [3][4] - The focus of policies has shifted from high growth to structural adjustments and quality improvements, with a fiscal deficit rate maintained at 4% [1][4] Real Estate Sector Insights - The "de-stocking" policy has re-emerged after 10 years, indicating a shift in focus from supply-side to demand-side measures [1][8] - Investment growth in the real estate sector needs to stabilize above 4% to support the overall economy [1][8] - The government is emphasizing support for multi-child families and adjustments to public housing loan rates, reflecting a demand-side policy shift [8] Aviation Industry Trends - The aviation sector is entering a phase characterized by low supply growth and market-driven pricing, with fleet growth expected to remain around 3% [1][20] - High passenger load factors are expected to drive ticket prices and profitability upward [20] - The demand for air travel is anticipated to be supported by family travel and visa-free entry policies [21] Commercial Aerospace Developments - The commercial aerospace sector is defined as a new pillar industry, with rocket launches expected to increase to 120-140 in 2026 and satellite numbers exceeding 600 [1][29] - The upcoming IPOs of private rocket companies are seen as a significant catalyst for the industry [1][29] Consumer Spending and Economic Recovery - Consumer spending is a major focus, with plans to enhance income and social security measures, including a 250 billion yuan long-term bond to support trade-in programs [12][14] - The government aims to stimulate service consumption and improve consumer confidence through various initiatives [12][14] Financial and Monetary Policy Outlook - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a steady but restrained approach, with a focus on supporting domestic demand and social welfare [4][5] - Monetary policy remains accommodative, but short-term interest rate cuts are not anticipated, with structural support for demand expansion prioritized [5][6] Debt Market Implications - The government's fiscal and monetary policies are expected to have a protective effect on the bond market, although short-term market reactions may be muted due to previous expectations of rate cuts not being met [6][7] Key Observations for the Real Estate Market - The reintroduction of "de-stocking" in policy discussions signals potential for further policy support in urban renewal and housing stability [8][9] - The focus on "high-quality development" in the real estate sector is expected to reshape market expectations and investment strategies [9] Investment Opportunities and Risks - The records suggest a cautious but optimistic outlook for sectors like aviation and commercial aerospace, with specific companies highlighted for potential investment [11][30] - The real estate sector is advised to focus on companies that can adapt to the changing policy landscape and consumer demands [10][26] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The emphasis on "反内卷" (anti-involution) in various sectors indicates a broader regulatory focus on ensuring fair competition and preventing excessive price competition [3][16] - The agricultural sector is gaining importance, with specific targets for grain production and a focus on food security, reflecting a shift in policy priorities [35][36] This summary encapsulates the key insights and implications from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the macroeconomic landscape and sector-specific developments for 2026.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The government work report continues the tone of being proactive, prudent, and seeking progress while maintaining stability. The positive fiscal and loose monetary stances remain unchanged, but the market has largely priced in the target setting of key indicators, so the impact on the bond market is limited and unsustainable. The yield of the 10-year government bond may fluctuate downward again, with a potential decline of about 5BP in the 1-2 weeks after the Two Sessions based on historical experience [9]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Current Situation Judgment and 2026 Economic Targets - **2025 Summary and Challenges**: In 2025, China faced complex and severe situations with both external shocks and domestic dilemmas. However, the economy maintained overall stability and achieved the expected 5% growth target. Currently, there are both strategic opportunities and risks, but China's long-term positive economic fundamentals remain unchanged [1]. - **2026 Policy Orientation and Targets**: The overall tone of "seeking progress while maintaining stability" continues, with a GDP growth target of 4.5 - 5%. Policies will focus on expanding domestic demand, supporting the development of new-quality productivity, stabilizing the real estate market, and encouraging the entry of medium- and long-term funds into the market. Other targets such as the urban survey unemployment rate (around 5.5%) and CPI (around 2%) remain unchanged [2]. Policy Direction Setting - **Generalized Fiscal Policy**: It remains proactive. The deficit rate is set at around 4%, with a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The government plans to issue 1.3 trillion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bonds and 300 billion yuan in special treasury bonds to replenish capital. Local government special bonds are set at 4.4 trillion yuan, with a focus on major project construction and debt resolution [3]. - **Monetary Policy**: It continues to be "moderately loose." For the first time, promoting stable economic growth and price recovery are mentioned as the top priorities. Expectations include flexible and efficient reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, as well as the innovation of more optimal structural monetary policy tools. Reserve requirement ratio cuts may occur earlier [4]. - **Promoting Consumption, Expanding Domestic Demand, and Investment**: These are the top priorities for economic growth in 2026. The government will implement a special consumption promotion action, set up a 100 billion yuan fiscal-financial coordinated专项资金 to promote domestic demand, and arrange 800 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds for "two major" construction. Additionally, 800 billion yuan in new policy-based financial instruments will be issued to drive more social capital into investment [5][6]. - **Cultivating and Strengthening New Driving Forces**: The report emphasizes the importance of cultivating new driving forces and achieving high-level scientific and technological self-reliance. It will support the large-scale equipment update of traditional industries with 200 billion yuan in ultra-long-term special treasury bond funds, encourage central and state-owned enterprises to develop emerging industries, and focus on the development of "AI +" [7]. - **Stabilizing the Real Estate Market**: The report aims to stabilize the real estate market by implementing city-specific policies to control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply. It also encourages the exploration of multiple channels to revitalize existing commercial housing and promotes the construction of a new real estate development model [8]. Bond Market Outlook - The government work report's key targets and budget settings are mostly in line with market expectations. After short-term fluctuations, long-term interest rates may continue to fluctuate downward. However, considering that substantial loose monetary operations may not occur quickly in the short term, the downward momentum of interest rates may be limited. Attention should be paid to factors such as output inflation pressure and exchange rates under the current geopolitical conflicts [9].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the A-share market performance on March 3, 2023, highlighting a significant decline across major indices. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.43% to close at 4122 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index dropped by 3.07% and 2.57%, respectively. The total trading volume reached 3.13 trillion yuan, an increase of over 100 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][1][1]. Key Points on Industry Performance - **Top Performing Industries**: - Oil and Petrochemicals: +6.75% - Coal: +1.76% - Transportation: +1.13% - Banking: +1.07% - Public Utilities: +0.49% [1][1][1] - **Underperforming Industries**: - Defense and Military: -6.74% - Non-ferrous Metals: -5.61% - Electronics: -5.30% - Computers: -4.94% - Media: -4.29% [1][1][1] Market News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with five other departments, released guidelines to promote the comprehensive utilization of photovoltaic components, aiming to enhance technology and equipment levels by 2030 [3][3][3]. - In the first week following new policies in the Shanghai real estate market, there was a rapid increase in demand-side activity, with online inquiries rising by 97.6% and conversion rates improving by 180% [3][3][3]. - Qatar Energy, the world's largest natural gas producer, announced a halt in liquefied natural gas exports due to military attacks on its facilities [3][3][3]. Market Outlook and Considerations - The Shanghai Composite Index's recent performance has created a situation of trapped capital and pessimism that will require time to resolve. If the intensity of the U.S.-Iran conflict continues, short-term risk aversion may persist. However, there is no need for excessive pessimism as the current economic resilience and cycle position have improved compared to 2022. The impact of war and high oil prices on inflation affecting AI hardware and other assets is expected to be limited [4][4][4]. - Despite the overall market decline, sectors with solid supply-demand dynamics, such as gas turbines, remain strong. Core assets with robust supply-demand support are crucial indicators. As the Two Sessions approach, the deeply corrected technology growth sector may see a rebound in funding due to policy catalysts [4][4][4]. Recommendations - It is advised to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East and oil price trends, while also paying attention to policy signals from the Two Sessions that may influence market risk appetite [5][5][5].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the bond market and its dynamics for March 2026, with a focus on government bonds and the impact of macroeconomic factors on the market. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Conditions and Policy Expectations** - The funding environment has been stable and relatively loose since the beginning of the year, but short-term interest rates and credit spreads are at low levels, requiring signals such as reserve requirement ratio cuts or interest rate reductions for further declines [1][2][3] - The market is experiencing increased volatility due to diverging expectations regarding policy changes, suggesting a strategy of seeking high points for investment [2][3] 2. **Government Bond Financing** - Government bond net financing in March is expected to approach 1.4 trillion, with a potential extension of maturities due to special refinancing bonds and special government bond issuances [1][5][12] - The supply-demand dynamics in the bond market are assessed to be manageable, with asset growth lagging behind liabilities, indicating limited pressure on the bond market [14] 3. **Real Estate and Economic Indicators** - Real estate data for January and February was weak, but March is expected to show improvement in economic activity, with new home sales remaining weak but second-hand home sales showing seasonal strength [1][7][8] - Export indicators are performing well, supporting a relatively optimistic outlook for key macroeconomic sectors [8] 4. **Interest Rate Trends** - Historically, March typically sees a decline in interest rates, with the average drop for 10-year government bonds around 4-10 basis points [5] - Current key variables influencing March include policy direction, macroeconomic fundamentals, government bond supply, and external factors affecting risk appetite [5][6] 5. **Market Sentiment and Investment Strategy** - The sentiment in the bond market remains bullish for the second quarter of 2026, with opportunities expected to arise, thus maintaining a bullish mindset is recommended [2][3] - The strategy for long-duration bonds, such as 30-year government bonds, should remain positive, capitalizing on market fluctuations [4] 6. **Banking Sector Dynamics** - The banking sector is under relatively low pressure on the liability side, with a continued negative net financing of certificates of deposit [3][16] - In February, banks shifted from significant purchases of long-term bonds to reductions, influenced by trading factors and increased primary supply [17] 7. **Investment Behavior of Institutions** - Different institutional behaviors have been observed, with brokerages showing active positions in 5-7 year government bonds, while funds have been cautious regarding long-duration bonds due to market volatility [18][19] 8. **Geopolitical and External Factors** - Key external factors include U.S.-China relations, currency fluctuations, and geopolitical tensions, particularly the U.S.-Iran conflict, which could impact the bond market through various channels [20][21] Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The potential for a "survivorship bias" in recovery data post-holiday, indicating that the sample quality may skew results positively [9][10] - The bond market's response to the upcoming Two Sessions and the expected fiscal policies, which are anticipated to be in line with market expectations without significant surprises [6] - The importance of monitoring the transition of bank liabilities from deposits to wealth management products, which could accelerate fund flows to non-bank entities [19] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the bond market's current state and future outlook.