智通财经APP获悉，自ChatGPT推出以来，人工智能已从技术概念跃升为全球股市回报的 "决定性引擎"。瑞银首席投资办公室近日发布全球股票策略报 告指出，AI正打破传统投资框架的束缚，成为股票配置中关键的差异化因素，而投资者若想捕捉AI红利，需跳出宽泛的地区、行业或风格标签，聚焦 企业将AI转化为竞争优势的核心能力。 Part.01 传统股票分类框架：解释力不足的 "旧地图" 长期以来，全球投资界构建股票组合时，高度依赖源于 20 世纪 70 年代的 "因子模型"，并在 90 年代通过 Fama-French 多因子模型进一步扩展 —— 这类 框架以 "预设特征" 划分股票，比如国家（如美国、欧洲市场）、行业（如科技、工业）、规模（大盘 / 小盘）、风格（价值 / 成长）等，将其作为 portfolio 构建和收益分析的核心依据。 但数据揭示了这一框架的局限性：UBS 对 MSCI 全国家指数（MSCI ACWI）过去 20 年的分析显示，国家、行业、风格这三类传统特征仅能解释 24% 的总回报，其中风格因子的贡献更是低至 3%。报告指出，股市回报的主力实则来自 "公司特定因素"—— 且这类因素并非随机：正如 ...

来源：市场投研资讯 （来源：华西研究） 华西宏观 （一）行情回顾：波折不改牛市底色 9月，市场在波折中向上攀登。9月2-4日，市场遭遇大幅调整，稳市预期博弈&科技抱团松动是主要原 因，9月行情以波动加剧开局。庆幸的是，资金对牛市的信心仍然坚实，指数随后企稳回升。结构上， 各类题材"百花齐放"，同时轮动加快。AI算力和半导体抱团松动后，固态电池、储能、机器人、半导体 材料设备、有色金属等均进入轮动范围。 （二）权益：盛宴未散，但轮动参与难度提升 如需完整报告，请联系对口销售经理 （三）转债：场内外资金心态分歧，但依然具有向上机会 正股行情仍在持续演绎，收益荒逻辑依然会发挥作用，转债指数具备向上的机会。今年纯债策略收益受 限，大量以往固收+参与较少的机构也会考虑利用转债行情搏取收益反转，转债需求有承接。但相较于 7-8月的行情，在体验过转债估值波动后，部分风险承受能力较低的机构会更加冷静，前期冒进式拔估 值行情难以复现。这意味着，转债估值波动可能在当前阶段成为常态。 （四）策略：主题投资，把握核心逻辑 综上，牛市盛宴未散，从主题入手较为理想。当前市场的主题线索有两条，一是高景气的科技主线，包 括已经受到关注的AI ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the emergence of leading companies in various sectors, such as Tesla, Apple, Nvidia, and OpenAI, which are significantly influencing global industrial patterns and capital markets. The A-share market's investment themes are closely tied to these global giants, creating investment opportunities in related sectors like AI, consumer electronics, and humanoid robotics [1][2]. Group 1: AI and Consumer Electronics - OpenAI's strategic partnership with domestic companies to develop consumer-grade AI devices has strengthened the consumer electronics sector, leading to significant stock price increases for companies labeled as part of the "O-chain" [2]. - Companies within the "fruit chain" (Apple's supply chain) have seen their stock prices surge due to the collaboration with OpenAI, with one leading company experiencing nearly a 100% increase in stock price over three months [2]. - Industrial Fulian, a key player in the "fruit chain," has benefited from its deep integration with both Apple and Nvidia, resulting in a stock price increase of over 200% this year and entering the trillion-yuan market cap club [2][4]. Group 2: Humanoid Robotics - Companies in the humanoid robotics sector, particularly those previously supplying Tesla's electric vehicles (referred to as "T-chain"), are expected to rapidly enter Tesla's humanoid robot business, significantly expanding their growth potential [3]. - The T-chain, along with the "D-chain" (related to Nvidia), has seen remarkable stock price increases, with many stocks doubling in value this year [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are focusing on companies closely tied to industry leaders, leveraging stable order performance and increasing R&D investments to capture new orders and opportunities [4][6]. - The article highlights that successful fund managers are not merely following trends but are employing systematic analysis and portfolio management to balance returns and risks [10]. - The core investment framework established by fund managers revolves around the "leading companies driving the industry chain," emphasizing the importance of companies with real growth support and performance delivery capabilities [14][15].

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The report highlights that there are currently 125 thematic indices showing a bottoming pattern, with key industries being comprehensive, computer, and defense [12]. - The report notes a decline in trading heat for the humanoid robot and Deepseek themes, with trading heat dropping to 80% and 73% respectively, while the leading stocks are positioned above their 60-day moving average [3][20]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the thematic database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks [9]. - The report indicates that there are 10 thematic indices that have broken out, primarily in the communication sector, and 2 indices in a main rising pattern, mainly in electronics and basic chemicals [12]. - The report mentions that the trading heat for humanoid robots has decreased by 1.8% for Changsheng Bearing, while Daily Interaction's stock price is up by 7.1% [20].

Market Review - The A-share market experienced overall fluctuations this week, with major indices showing mixed performance. The semiconductor industry chain strengthened significantly, with the Sci-Tech 50 Index rising by 6.47%, driven by increased capital expenditure in the AI sector and breakthroughs in domestic lithography technology. Conversely, the consumer sector weakened, with indices in social services, retail, light industry, and textiles showing the largest declines. Market turnover decreased marginally, with net inflows of financing funds maintained, and stock ETFs saw a net subscription of 231 billion yuan this week. In the commodity market, internationally priced commodities strengthened, while domestically priced black commodities declined. The dollar index rose, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield returning to around 4.2%, and the RMB depreciated against the dollar [1][2]. Market Outlook - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets are expected to experience temporary fluctuations, with a "slow bull" market continuing. After a trend-driven rise in July and August, funding divergence has increased since September. With the upcoming long holiday, external funds entering the market may slow down, leading to potential short-term adjustments in both markets. However, the current bull market is still in play, supported by ample micro liquidity, policies aimed at stabilizing the stock market, and long-term capital inflows. Despite weak economic data, the effects of "anti-involution" policies are beginning to show, leading to marginal improvements in long-term profit expectations for A-shares. Key areas of focus include: - The technology sector remains the main focus, with both "prosperity investment" and "thematic investment" expected to coexist in October. Internal rotation within growth sectors is anticipated to accelerate, particularly in AI downstream applications, solid-state batteries, energy storage, computing power, and innovative pharmaceuticals. Attention should also be given to non-tech sectors showing positive trends, such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and engineering machinery [2][3]. International Perspective - On the international front, the Federal Reserve's "preventive" interest rate cuts have been implemented, but there is increasing divergence regarding future rate cut paths. In September, the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points as expected, with projections indicating a potential further reduction of 50 basis points within the year. However, there is significant disagreement among Fed officials regarding future cuts, with 9 out of 19 officials expecting two more cuts in 2025, while others foresee no further reductions. Current U.S. economic data remains resilient, and Fed Chair Powell's cautious signals regarding rate cuts suggest a potentially complicated path ahead [3]. Supply-Side Policies - The impact of supply-side "anti-involution" policies is gradually becoming evident, with industrial profits rebounding in August. Year-on-year growth in industrial profits for August was 20.4%, improving from a -1.7% decline in July to a cumulative growth of 0.9%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a narrowing decline of -2.9% year-on-year, marking the first contraction since March. This improvement is attributed to a low base effect and the gradual impact of supply-side policies, which have led to price increases in upstream commodities. The central bank has emphasized the challenges of insufficient domestic demand and low price levels, with recent policies aimed at boosting prices being implemented [3]. Structural Trends - In terms of structure, the technology sector is experiencing numerous catalysts, with high growth expectations for TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors. The new wave of technological advancements driven by AI is accelerating across various fields. Key factors include the increasing clarity of domestic and international AI industry trends, rapid growth in the performance of leading companies, and a focus on hard technology and new production capabilities in upcoming policy meetings. Market consensus on profit expectations indicates high growth for growth sectors in 2025, including military electronics, software development, IT services, optical electronics, gaming, new energy, semiconductors, and communication equipment [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The liquidity situation in the A-share market remains ample. In August, non-bank deposits increased by 550 billion yuan year-on-year, and the M1-M2 negative differential continues to narrow, reflecting a positive impact on residents' risk appetite. Unlike the previous "structural bull" market from 2019 to 2021, where residents favored active funds, this bull market sees a preference for passive investment products. Since the fourth quarter of 2024, the net asset value of stock ETFs has rapidly expanded, with index funds consistently outpacing active equity funds for three consecutive quarters, further promoting the trend towards indexation in the industry. The central bank's monetary policy remains moderately accommodative, with funding rates trending downward and bank wealth management products yielding historically low returns, suggesting that micro liquidity in the A-share market is likely to remain ample in the fourth quarter [3].

以下文章来源于晨星投资说 ，作者陪你聊基金的 晨星投资说 . 全球知名投资研究机构晨星Morningstar，与您一同探索投资星球。我们的使命是"赋能投资者成功"！ ↑点击上面图片 加雪球核心交流群 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者：晨星Morningstar 屈辰晨 来源：雪球 月初 ， 买方大佬与分析师的一场 " 互怼 " 引发了市场的广泛讨论 —— 在科技大涨的行情之下 ， 几年前炙手可热的白酒 ， 被嘲讽成没有前途的 " 老登资产 " 。 这场争论背后 ， 折射出的其实是今年市场的极致分化 ： 截至9月12日 ， 食品饮料板块今年以来下跌0.87% ； 而科技板块却一路高歌 ， 申万通 讯指数 、 申万电子指数的年内涨幅均超40% 。 在这样的行情下 ， " 赛道 " 基金又一次成了不少人眼中把握行情的 " 赚钱利器 " 。 不过 ， 选对赛道就能让我们躺赢吗 ？ 今天 ， 我们就来聊聊这类基金 —— 到底怎么买才能赚钱 ？ 我们又该如何在组合里用好它们 ？ 01 赛道的 " 诱惑 " 与 " 陷阱 " 我们常说的 " 赛道 " 本质就是主题投 ...

国内人形机器人大订单同样落地，9月2日，星尘智能宣布与仙工智能签订千台级工业机器人订单，计划未来两年在工业、仓储、物流等场景分阶段部署，这 是国内人形机器人首笔千台级商单。 继7月份成功拿下近亿元全球最大单笔人形机器人订单后，某龙头机器人公司再传捷报，与国内某头部企业达成2.5亿元具身智能人形机器人采购合同，以 WalkerS2为主力产品交付，刷新全球人形机器人企业单笔订单纪录。 【如何理解机器人行情？提前效应+主题投资=产业趋势超前投资】 华泰证券指出，科技赛道行情可分为主题投资和产业趋势投资两个阶段：1）主题投资阶段：市场对远端EPS提升的预期强，带动板块的近端估值中枢抬 升，若业绩被证伪即是未兑现赛道，可能表现为一次性有斜率的行情，后会回归正常估值中枢，若业绩逐步验证即是可能转向产业趋势投资。2）产业趋势 阶段：前期一般是活跃资金参与，而机构配置比例低，随着产业内生发展有重大突破，业绩逐步验证和兑现，市场对产业奇点时刻有共识，机构配置比例系 统性并持续性地提升、板块成交额扩大，板块行情先后打开高度和宽度，价值量和利润增长斜率优异的公司在该阶段或有明显超额收益。 9月18日，A股震荡上行，科技重回主线。截 ...

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the establishment of a thematic investment database aimed at identifying high-quality price-volume patterns and monitoring the peak rhythm of popular themes and the adjustment levels of leading stocks [2][9]. - The thematic indices show various patterns, with 0 at the bottom, 6 in breakout, 17 in main rise, and 11 in acceleration. The main industries for breakout are communication, transportation, and agriculture, while the main industries for the main rise are non-ferrous metals, communication, and electronics [12]. - The trading heat for humanoid robots has risen to 89%, with Changsheng Bearing's closing price above MA60 by 8.3%. For Deepseek, the trading heat is at 76%, with Daily Interaction's closing price above MA60 by 11.9% [3][17]. Group 2 - The report outlines two main objectives of the thematic database: to find investment opportunities and to provide warnings for potential peaks [9]. - The report indicates a quantitative screening of four types of patterns to identify high-odds thematic opportunities and the construction of trading heat indicators to grasp the peak rhythm of popular themes [2][9]. - The report will regularly update the thematic investment data system to provide investors with more objective references for capturing the rhythm of thematic investments [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of online literature in China, highlighting its reflection of societal changes and the impact of different historical periods on literary themes and genres [5][6]. Group 1: Evolution of Online Literature - Online literature has undergone significant transformations, paralleling the industrial and technological revolutions from the 1980s to the present [6][7]. - The article categorizes online literature into four main genres: Wuxia (martial arts), time travel, cultivation (Xianxia), and female-oriented narratives [8]. Group 2: Wuxia Literature - Wuxia literature represents the agricultural society, emphasizing collective values and the traditional master-apprentice relationship [10][12]. - The genre reflects a high moral standard and a strong sense of justice, rooted in the historical context of small artisan communities [12]. Group 3: Time Travel Literature - Time travel narratives resonate with the industrial era, often portraying protagonists who seek to improve the past using modern knowledge [13][18]. - The genre is experiencing a decline due to the rapid industrialization and the saturation of historical periods available for exploration [19][20]. Group 4: Cultivation Literature - Cultivation literature mirrors contemporary society, characterized by individualism and a hierarchical structure similar to modern corporate environments [21][23]. - The genre emphasizes personal growth and the importance of resources, reflecting a realistic approach to success and achievement [31]. Group 5: Female-Oriented Narratives - Female-oriented literature encompasses various genres but primarily focuses on themes of love and human nature, appealing to both male and female readers [33][34]. - This genre has proven commercially viable, with many popular adaptations originating from female-oriented narratives [33][36]. Group 6: Future of Online Literature - The article suggests that the future of online literature may align with China's advancements in science and technology, potentially leading to a resurgence of science fiction [38][39]. - The evolution of online literature serves as a mirror to societal changes, emphasizing the need to understand the underlying production forces shaping narratives [41][42].

智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，最近赴美国进行一周半的路演期间，美国投资者对中国股 票表现出远高于2021至2024年的兴趣。其中，对AI人形机器人、生物科技及创新消费领域是主要关注 焦点，但仍存在忧虑，该行也会提醒投资者需留意若干指标。该行指，美国投资者对中国股票的正面投 资兴趣为新冠疫情以来最高：路演横跨东西岸。无论是从指数层面，还是针对特定主题和结构性机会， 美国投资者对中国市场的关注度都令其颇为惊喜。 大摩表示，有会面超过90%的投资者明确表达愿意增加中国配置，这是自2021年初中国股市见顶以来最 高水平。该行指，多个因素共同推动投资意愿回升：年初以来，投资者认同该行对中国持较建设性看 法，其自6月起建议增持A股，并看好主题投资机会，这些都获得投资者的支持。 该行指，投资者现时对中国更有兴趣的原因，包括中国在部分科技领域(如人形机器人、机器人、生物 科技及药物研发)具全球领导地位，参与中国市场是必须的;中国政策制定者已逐步采取措施稳定经济， 并明确表达希望培植股市，最坏时期很可能已经过去;中国市场流动性明显改善，有利于市场反弹持续 更长时间。 大摩表示，美国投资者的兴趣已超越ADR与互联网板 ...