报告要点： 专题报告 2025-09-23 新一轮预期博弈即将开启，黑色板块逐步具备多配性价比 2022 年至今，在黑色板块，市场讲的一直是同一个故事：在"弱现实"背景下讲政策"预期"。 今年四季度我们认为依旧存在这样的剧本，10 月中下旬的"四中全会"将对"十五五"做出规 划，这将是未来预期博弈的关键节点。 综合：1）客观上价格下跌的动能不断衰竭；2）美联储正式进入降息周期，后续海外进入财政、 货币双宽的局面相对确定，利好于全球需求扩张与大宗商品价格；3）我国具备丰富的去产能 经验，与"反内卷"相配套的需求侧政策仍然值得期待；4）站在周期的角度，黑色大概五年 一个周期，当下也临近这样一个关键的周期时间拐点等方面因素，我们认为虽然短期在现实需 求的影响下，黑色板块价格仍存在阶段性回调的风险，但中长期来看，黑色板块或逐渐具备多 配的性价比。后续需要重点关注的点在于是否能够出现新的需求引擎：若有，则预计后续钢铁 行业有望开启新一轮的上升周期；若尚没有，则预计价格或再度进入盘整，需要更长一段时间 的震荡筑底直至新的引擎出现。 陈张滢 黑色研究员 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 0755 ...

Core Viewpoint - The concept of "anti-involution" has evolved into a strategic issue affecting the overall economy of China, particularly as the country transitions to high-quality development. This phenomenon is characterized by supply-demand mismatches and disorderly competition in various industries, which hinder productivity and pose significant challenges to achieving high-quality growth [1][2]. Group 1: New Trends in "Anti-Involution" - The current "anti-involution" movement exhibits three new trends compared to the previous supply-side reform 1.0: upgraded goals, expanded governance targets, and evolved policy tools [3][4][5][6]. - The upgraded goals focus on quality improvement and breaking the cycle of involution, shifting from merely reducing excess capacity to establishing high-quality competition rules applicable to all market entities [4]. - The governance targets have expanded to include not only traditional industries but also emerging sectors and platform economies, addressing issues of blind investment and vicious competition [5]. - The policy tools have transitioned from administrative commands to rule-making and macro-guidance, emphasizing the establishment of legal frameworks and market mechanisms to facilitate industry upgrades [6]. Group 2: Impacts on the Banking Industry - The banking sector is experiencing "involution" due to insufficient effective demand and a continuous narrowing of net interest margins, leading to a reliance on "involution" as a survival strategy [2][13]. - The short-term response to this "involution" is characterized by a focus on expanding scale to counteract profit pressures, which can lead to a vicious cycle of price wars and increased operational risks [14][15]. - Long-term, the "involution" in banking can compress profit margins and increase operational risks, ultimately affecting the stability of the financial system and its support for the real economy [15][16]. Group 3: Solutions for the Banking Sector - To effectively counter "involution," banks must adapt their customer structures to align with the changing economic landscape, enhancing risk management capabilities and focusing on new economic sectors [16][17]. - The transition from traditional economic sectors to new ones is essential for banks to escape the "involution" trap, as the demand from traditional sectors continues to decline [16]. - A shift towards a more diversified customer base and improved risk management will enable banks to better serve the evolving needs of the economy and enhance their sustainability [16].

Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - In August 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.4% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after two months[6] - Food prices fell by 4.3% year-on-year, with significant declines in pork (16.1%), fresh vegetables (15.2%), and eggs (14.2%) contributing to a downward pressure on CPI[6] - Non-food prices increased by 0.5% year-on-year, partially offsetting the decline in food prices[6] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9% year-on-year, indicating potential effectiveness of domestic demand policies[6] Group 2: PPI and Economic Outlook - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month, suggesting a potential turning point[11] - The PPI's month-on-month change improved from a decline of 0.2% to flat, ending an eight-month downward trend[12] - The improvement in PPI is attributed to the effectiveness of supply-side reforms, particularly in coal and new energy vehicle sectors[11] - Current PPI conditions support a downward trend in interest rates rather than an upward shift, indicating a need for continued policy efforts to stabilize economic recovery[1]

Market Overview - The current market trend indicates the establishment of a bull market, which began on September 24 last year with a series of housing policies [1] - The market experienced a rapid increase, with a notable surge of 1000 points within a few trading days, followed by a correction phase lasting over a quarter [1] - Recent policies have shifted towards economic stimulation, emphasizing the need to boost domestic demand and consumption [1] Policy Impact - Central government meetings have increasingly focused on stabilizing the real estate market and enhancing the attractiveness of the capital market [1] - A significant policy signal was the joint announcement by five departments to promote long-term capital inflow into the market, indicating institutional investors are increasing their equity positions [1] Valuation Insights - The current market valuation remains low, with a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 13-14, compared to a historical average of 17-18, suggesting over 20% potential upside [3] - Chinese stocks are significantly undervalued compared to U.S. stocks, with many trading at only 1/2 to 1/3 of their U.S. counterparts [3] Capital Flow Dynamics - There is a clear trend of household savings shifting towards the capital market, with total household savings increasing by nearly 60 trillion over five years, now reaching 160 trillion [4] - The stock market is seen as the primary outlet for these savings, especially as the real estate market can no longer absorb significant capital [4] Market Participation - In July, new stock accounts reached 2 million, and many equity funds launched with initial scales exceeding 1 billion, indicating a strong recovery in market participation [5] - The balance of margin trading has surpassed 2 trillion for the first time in a decade, reflecting increased investor engagement [5] Economic Implications - The current bull market is expected to enhance consumer spending, as rising stock prices will directly increase household wealth, leading to greater consumption [6] - A thriving stock market is anticipated to positively impact sectors like dining, tourism, and real estate, as increased wealth will enable consumers to pay off loans and potentially invest in property [6] IPO and Innovation - A bullish market will likely accelerate the pace of IPOs, providing more opportunities for tech innovation and supporting the growth of new enterprises [7] - The stock market is viewed as a crucial engine for economic growth, complementing traditional drivers like investment, consumption, and exports [7]

Group 1 - The A-share market has experienced continuous breakthroughs and significant increases due to low domestic interest rates, ample liquidity, and policy support, alongside a growing expectation of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [1][2] - The Shanghai Composite Index has risen over 1%, surpassing 3700 points, which has attracted more external capital, including foreign investment, as the China-US interest rate differential narrows and the pressure of RMB depreciation eases [1][2] - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential further cuts by the end of the year, which could lower the benchmark interest rate from the current 4.25%-4.5% to below 4%, providing support for the US economic recovery [2] Group 2 - The current bull market trend is gradually establishing itself, with significant policy support being a crucial factor, as the Central Political Bureau has emphasized stabilizing the real estate and stock markets [3][4] - Institutional investors, including insurance funds, public funds, and pension funds, have increased their allocations to equity assets, contributing to a substantial influx of capital into the market [3][4] - The total market capitalization of A-shares has surpassed 100 trillion yuan, indicating a strong market sentiment and increased trading volume, with multiple trading days exceeding 2 trillion yuan [4] Group 3 - There is a noticeable trend of residents shifting savings to the capital market, with nearly 60 trillion yuan added to savings accounts over the past five years, driven by low interest rates on deposits [4] - The current bull market is expected to last two to three years, characterized by a slow and steady growth rather than a rapid surge, encouraging value investing and the allocation of quality stocks and funds [4] Group 4 - The fourth technological revolution is underway, particularly with the widespread application of artificial intelligence, as demonstrated by the progress of "Wukong AI" in the aerospace sector [5][6] - The humanoid robot sector is gaining attention, with significant events and IPOs attracting investor interest, positioning humanoid robots as a potential fourth major industry in China [6] Group 5 - The People's Bank of China has emphasized a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on promoting reasonable price recovery and improving consumer demand through supply-side reforms [7] - The government has set a GDP growth target of around 5% and a CPI target of 2%, with measures to stimulate consumption and achieve the inflation target being crucial [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the concept of "involutionary competition" in the coal industry, highlighting the need for effective measures to address this issue and promote high-quality economic development through supply-demand balance [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Background and Goals - The supply-side reform from 2016 to 2018 aimed to address severe overcapacity in the coal industry, with over 80% of companies facing losses, by eliminating outdated capacity and optimizing the industry structure [5]. - The "anti-involution" initiative launched in 2025 focuses on regulating market order and curbing disorderly competition due to declining coal demand and price drops, with a goal to stabilize coal prices and enhance supply quality [6]. Group 2: Policy Measures and Implementation Paths - The supply-side reform employed rigid measures to eliminate capacity, including banning new capacity and enforcing production limits [7][8]. - The "anti-involution" approach combines administrative and market mechanisms, emphasizing self-discipline among enterprises and strict control over excessive production [10][11]. Group 3: Policy Effects Comparison - The supply-side reform led to a significant reduction in coal production capacity from 573 million tons in 2016 to 440 million tons in 2017, improving capacity utilization from 59.53% to 77.82% [13][14]. - The "anti-involution" measures have resulted in a rebound in coal prices, with futures contracts rising from a low of 709 yuan/ton to a peak of 1288.5 yuan/ton by August 2025, indicating potential for further price increases if strict production checks continue [15]. Group 4: Policy Synergy and Differences - Both policies aim to resolve overcapacity and inefficient competition, promoting high-quality development in the coal industry [16]. - The supply-side reform focuses on reducing existing capacity, while the "anti-involution" strategy emphasizes controlling new capacity growth, with the former relying on administrative orders and the latter on market mechanisms [18]. Group 5: Thoughts on Coal "Anti-Involution" - The "anti-involution" initiative is primarily targeted at industries with severe overcapacity, and the coal market is currently not in a state of overcapacity, especially for coking coal, which remains in short supply [19]. - The article suggests that excessive constraints on supply could lead to significant price increases, adversely affecting downstream enterprises and consumers [19][20]. Group 6: Conclusion - The coal "anti-involution" represents a deepening and extension of supply-side reforms, combining flexible regulation to stabilize market order with rigid capacity reduction to reshape the industry landscape [21].

Core Viewpoint - A new round of "anti-involution" actions is being prepared, viewed by the market as "Supply-Side Reform 2.0" due to overcapacity issues and government intervention being a key driver for this initiative [1][3] Group 1: Market and Government Relationship - The core of economic system reform is to manage the relationship between government and market, emphasizing reduced direct government resource allocation and maximizing efficiency through market rules [5] - The solar photovoltaic (PV) industry has faced severe overcapacity and chaotic competition, with significant government support leading to excessive investments in this sector [5][6] - The government has previously recognized the need for market mechanisms to drive structural adjustments and eliminate inferior enterprises in the PV industry [7] Group 2: Market Exit Mechanism - The fundamental issue causing the current "anti-involution" is overcapacity, with a shift in consumer demand from goods to services, leading to an imbalance in investment and consumption [8] - The competitive market environment will naturally lead to larger enterprises absorbing smaller ones and unprofitable firms exiting the market through market-driven mechanisms such as price reductions and mergers [8][9] - The market dynamics suggest that if high-cost firms do not exit, it can lead to widespread losses across the industry, highlighting the need for a structured exit mechanism [10][11] Group 3: Policy Implications - The current "anti-involution" initiative is not merely about eliminating outdated capacity but represents a comprehensive market-oriented reform across all investment and financing stages [12] - The focus is on ensuring that market prices guide resource allocation, which is essential for reducing overcapacity and preventing involution [12]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals remain weak, and the futures prices are expected to gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate. It is expected that the policy direction will continue the previous strict control of the incremental situation. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side to the prices of finished products [3]. - Short - term commodity prices may be adjusted. Iron ore is expected to fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly oscillate. The market divergence remains, and risk control should be noted [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions be mainly on the sidelines, and hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand of the black sector will weaken marginally [9][10]. - For industrial silicon, although the short - term price is repeated, the high - point may have appeared. For polysilicon, the price is in high - level oscillation, and the short - term price may fluctuate widely. Caution is required when participating [15][16]. - For glass, it is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, if there are substantial policies in real estate, the futures price may continue to rise. For soda ash, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are still supply - demand contradictions in the long - term. It is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [18][19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3234 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.030%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 893 tons to 89256 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 56263 lots to 1.652569 million lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3451 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.17%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 55998 tons, and the main contract position decreased by 1559 lots to 1.460175 million lots [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The real - estate policy remains basically unchanged. The export volume has decreased significantly this week. The speculative demand for rebar has decreased, and there is inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils has increased slightly, with a rapid increase in production and a small inventory accumulation. The inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at a five - year low [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 794.50 yuan/ton, down 0.50% (- 4.00), with a position change of - 26208 lots to 358300 lots. The weighted position was 942500 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 776 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.13 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.65% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Analysis**: Overseas iron ore shipments decreased, with both Australian and Brazilian shipments declining. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrival volume increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased. The port inventory decreased, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly. The profitability of steel mills is still at a high level, and the demand support remains [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 1.30% at 6096 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 94 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) closed up 3.36% at 5908 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 142 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Fundamental Analysis**: Manganese silicon is in an over - supplied industrial pattern, with marginal weakening of future demand and potential downward adjustment of costs. Ferrosilicon also faces the risk of weakening demand and a significant decline in pig iron output in the future [10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8700 yuan/ton, up 2.47% (+ 210). The weighted contract position increased by 21227 lots to 522034 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 51345 yuan/ton, up 2.02% (+ 1015). The weighted contract position increased by 5970 lots to 387318 lots [13][15]. - **Market Analysis**: For industrial silicon, the supply is in excess, and the effective demand is insufficient. The price may be repeated in the short - term. For polysilicon, the price is affected by the expected capacity integration plan and the enterprise's price - holding strategy, and it is in high - level oscillation. The inventory may accumulate slightly in August [14][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1181 yuan, down 9 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased by 239.7 million weight boxes to 5949.9 million weight boxes, a decrease of 3.87% month - on - month and 13.88% year - on - year. The spot price of soda ash was 1320 yuan, up 70 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers increased by 56000 tons to 1.8518 million tons, an increase of 3.12% [18][19]. - **Market Analysis**: Glass is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. In the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and there are supply - demand contradictions in the long - term [18][19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market remained weak yesterday, with the prices of finished products showing a weak and volatile trend. Although the short - term market sentiment has improved, the overall fundamentals are still weak, and the futures prices may gradually return to the real - trading logic. The current static fundamental contradictions are not obvious, and the Politburo meeting has no new statements on real estate, so the policy direction is expected to continue the previous strict control of incremental trends. Attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side for finished product prices [3]. - The price of iron ore may fluctuate with the prices of downstream products and mainly show a volatile trend. The supply growth is limited, and the port inventory is trending downward. The demand support still exists, but the market divergence remains, and risk control is necessary [6]. - For manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is recommended that investment positions mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach, while hedging positions can seize opportunities according to their own situations. In the long - term, both may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [9][10]. - The price of industrial silicon may be weak in the short term, and the price of polysilicon may show a high - level volatile trend. The price increase chain of polysilicon needs to be further observed whether it can be smoothly transmitted to the downstream [14][15]. - The prices of glass and soda ash are expected to be volatile in the short term. For glass, if there are substantial real - estate policies, the futures price may continue to rise; for soda ash, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [17][18]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3204 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.031%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 2394 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 18,068 lots. The spot prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3417 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan/ton (0.470%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 1176 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,689 lots. The spot price in Shanghai increased by 20 yuan/ton, while that in Lecong remained unchanged [2]. - **Market Analysis**: The speculative demand for rebar decreased significantly with the price decline, leading to inventory accumulation. The demand for hot - rolled coils increased slightly, the production increased rapidly, and the inventory increased slightly. The current inventory levels of rebar and hot - rolled coils are at the lowest in the past five years [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Information**: The main contract (I2509) of iron ore closed at 798.50 yuan/ton, up 1.01% (+8.00). The positions decreased by 18,144 lots to 384,500 lots. The weighted positions were 945,900 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 780 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 30.53 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.68% [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Inventory Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, with shipments from Australia and Brazil both decreasing. The shipments from non - mainstream countries increased, and the arrivals increased. The daily average pig iron output decreased by 1.52 tons to 240.71 tons. The port inventory decreased month - on - month, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased slightly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Information**: On August 5, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) rose 0.77% to close at 6018 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5850 yuan/ton, with a premium of 22 yuan/ton over the futures. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF509) rose 0.74% to close at 5716 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Tianjin was 5900 yuan/ton, with a premium of 184 yuan/ton over the futures [8][9]. - **Market Analysis**: In the short term, the market sentiment has cooled down, and the prices may fluctuate greatly. In the long - term, both manganese silicon and ferrosilicon may face the situation of weakening marginal demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.43% (+120). The weighted positions decreased by 1174 lots to 500,807 lots. The spot prices of different grades decreased. The price may be weak in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support at 8250 yuan/ton [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 50,330 yuan/ton, up 2.76% (+1350). The weighted positions increased by 18,874 lots to 381,348 lots. The spot prices remained flat. The price may show a high - level volatile trend, and the support levels are 47,000 and 44,000 yuan/ton [14][15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe remained unchanged, while those in Central China decreased by 30 yuan. The national inventory of float glass decreased. The net short positions decreased. The price may be volatile in the short term, and in the long - term, it depends on real - estate policies and demand [17]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price increased by 10 yuan. The domestic inventory increased, and the downstream demand was tepid. The production was stable, and the output is expected to increase. The price may be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long term [18].

Summary of Steel Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **steel industry** and its investment strategies for the year 2025 and beyond, particularly in the context of supply-side reforms and anti-involution policies [1][9]. Key Points and Arguments - **Production Capacity and Cost Reduction**: The commissioning of the Ximangdu Iron Mine with a phase one capacity of **120 million tons**, accounting for **3-4%** of global supply, is expected to lower iron ore costs, benefiting steel smelting [1][2]. - **Profit Outlook**: The steel industry's profitability in **2025-2026** is projected to be better than in **2020**, driven by cyclical changes in the upstream and downstream ecosystem rather than a significant increase in demand [1][3]. - **Anti-Involution Policy**: This policy aims to improve the average price level by eliminating low-end production capacity, leading to a more differentiated market where high-quality firms receive more support [4][10]. - **Supply-Side Reform 2.0**: The focus is on high-quality development, with high-end steel producers expected to gain more support and a potential restructuring of valuation systems [6][9]. - **Market Reaction**: Following a market correction, investors are advised to focus on companies that have shown early recovery in their performance reports, indicating a more stable pricing environment [5][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Companies that align with the core ideas of China's manufacturing transformation and industrial upgrade 2.0 are highlighted as having significant potential. Mid-tier companies (1.5 to 2 lines) are expected to show greater elasticity in valuation [7][8]. - **Future Development Directions**: The steel sector is expected to split into high-quality and low-quality firms, each with distinct valuation systems. High-quality firms may achieve price-to-earnings ratios of **8-10 times** or higher [6][9]. Additional Important Insights - **Market Conditions**: Despite a positive profit outlook, local spontaneous production cuts are insufficient, with daily molten iron production remaining high at **2.4 million tons** for several weeks [9][10]. - **Long-Term Strategy**: The implementation of Supply-Side Reform 2.0 will be more refined and structural, focusing on low emissions, energy efficiency, and carbon control, rather than a one-size-fits-all approach [9][10]. - **Investment Recommendations**: Specific companies such as **Hualing, Shougang, Fangte Steel, New Steel, and Sangang Mingguang** are identified as potential investment targets, with leading firms like **Nangang and Baosteel** recommended for long-term holdings [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and strategic directions discussed in the conference call regarding the steel industry, emphasizing the importance of adapting to evolving market conditions and regulatory frameworks.