投资者开始获利了结并降低风险敞口，周五新兴市场资产全线下跌，金价回落和美国政府停摆持续，进一步打击市场情绪，亚洲市场呈现广泛的去风险模 式。 Saxo Markets首席投资策略师Charu Chanana表示： 黄金下跌加剧了"一切都在跌"的氛围，黄金触及4000美元后的获利回吐，部分源于停火消息传出后地缘政治紧张局势缓解。 本月新兴市场资产开局不稳，货币在区间内波动，美元意外走强挑战市场预期。尽管美国政府停摆持续，美元仍有望录得11月以来最佳周表现，做空美元这 一年内最主流交易策略开始出现裂痕。 黄金回落削弱避险情绪 黄金价格的回落成为拖累新兴市场情绪的关键因素。Chanana分析称，黄金在触及4000美元高位后出现获利了结，同时停火消息缓解地缘政治紧张局势，削 弱了对避险资产的需求。 周五，MSCI新兴市场货币指数下跌0.2%，有望录得周线跌幅，股票指数则下跌0.5%。除韩国综合股价指数（因周四休市）外，几乎所有亚洲股指均下跌， 其中日股收跌1%。 传统的避险资产未能为新兴市场提供缓冲，反而加剧了市场的"一切都在跌"氛围。这种情况下，投资者更倾向于全面降低风险敞口。 美元强势挑战市场共识 尽管美国政府停 ...

自今年以来，在这个每日成交额达9.6万亿美元的全球外汇交易市场中，押注美元走弱一直是主导性的交易，但这一押注正开始 变得踉跄，"强美元"时隔数月之久卷土重来。 尽管美国政府停摆持续上演，冲击投资者们对于美元资产的持有信心，但是作为全球主要储备货币的美元的强弱衡量指数仍处于 约两个月高位，凸显出美元近期相对于其他主权货币的强势地位。亚洲和欧洲的交易员们表示，对冲基金正在加码期权押注，认 为相对多数主要货币的美元反弹浪潮将延续至年底。 欧元和日元下跌等海外市场形势，以及美联储官员们集体敦促谨慎进行进一步降息的偏向鹰派言论，都在近期大举提升了美元这 一全球储备货币的吸引力。 然而美元升值趋势可能会对全球经济产生负面性质的影响，使其他央行更难放松货币政策，推高大宗商品成本，并增加以美元计 价的外债负担。 "做空美元"正在演变为投资者们的"痛苦交易"环节 毋庸置疑的是，海外动态是美元近期强势的关键驱动因素之一，尤其是本月欧元和日元骤跌。与此同时，美联储官员呼吁对进一 步降息保持谨慎的言论也大幅提升了美元的投资吸引力。 美元走强持续的时间越长，坚守美元看跌观点者的痛苦就越大。其中的最大美元空头包括高盛集团、摩根大通和摩根 ...

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around a potential bubble in the market is increasing, but Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett indicates that the credit spread of tech stocks is at a multi-year low, suggesting that the AI-driven tech stock rally has not yet reached a dangerous level [1][4][5]. Group 1: Credit Spread and AI Bubble Concerns - The current credit spread for tech stocks is at its lowest point in 18 years, indicating that investors are not pricing in potential risks for tech companies in the credit market [4][5]. - This low credit spread contrasts sharply with typical late-stage asset bubble scenarios, which usually see a sharp rise in credit risk [5][6]. - The EPFR fund flow data supports this optimism, showing significant inflows into various asset classes, including $24.7 billion into bond funds and $19.6 billion into equities [6][7]. Group 2: Dollar Strength and Market Risks - Hartnett warns that the primary risk for investors is not a bubble burst but an unexpected strengthening of the dollar, as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" has become prevalent [1][11]. - If the dollar index experiences a chaotic rebound and surpasses the critical level of 102, it could trigger a collective risk-off response among investors [11]. - Despite the short-term risk of a dollar rebound, Hartnett believes the long-term trend of dollar depreciation remains unchanged, providing structural support for assets like gold [12]. Group 3: Asset Performance and Market Dynamics - Year-to-date, gold has been the best-performing asset with a gain of 41.3%, while international stocks have risen by 24.7% and the dollar index has declined by 9.2% [8][9]. - The negative correlation between a weakening dollar and rising risk assets is evident, suggesting that as long as the consensus trade of "shorting the dollar" remains intact, the macro environment for asset appreciation will continue [11]. - Although gold is currently viewed as "overbought" tactically, it remains a "underweight" asset structurally, with only 0.4% of private client assets and 2.4% of institutional client assets allocated to gold [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The global economy in the macro and financial sector is rated as (slightly bullish) [1] Core Viewpoints - The global economy maintains an upward trend, with various countries and regions having positive developments and potential investment opportunities [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Important Information - BofA's chief strategist believes that the Fed may deal with debt through currency devaluation, making shorting the US dollar a core investment theme, and gold, cryptocurrencies, commodities, and emerging markets will be the biggest winners [1] - Michael Burry, the hedge - fund manager and the prototype of the movie "The Big Short", went from short to long on Chinese concept stocks in Q2, buying call options on Alibaba and JD.com [1] - Nomura expects Powell not to give a "clear commitment", BofA expects a hawkish stance, and Morgan Stanley expects Powell to emphasize inflation risks and resist market expectations of interest - rate cuts [1] - The Hong Kong stock market, as the world's largest RMB offshore market, has comprehensive and long - term allocation value [1] - Some public - fund professionals say this year is the "commercialization year" of humanoid robots, which will become a global trillion - dollar industry [1] - India's prime minister announced a comprehensive reform plan for the country's GST, simplifying four tax brackets to two to boost the economy [1] - Japan's Financial Services Agency will approve the country's first issuance of the yen - denominated stablecoin JPYC this month [1] - JPMorgan believes that although the "Fed put" can buffer temporary economic weakness, investors should not underestimate the tail effects of macro risks [1] Global Economic Logic - China strengthens the domestic cycle, provides loan interest subsidies, and its exports in July increased by 7.2%. Sino - US reciprocal tariffs are extended by 90 days. The US may restart interest - rate cuts in September [1] - China's comprehensive rectification of involution - style competition is expected to boost the performance of relevant listed companies. The European Central Bank has cut interest rates 8 times, and Germany's 30% military expansion may drive European economic growth [1] - Goldman Sachs believes that China's humanoid robot industry is iterating products at an amazing speed [1]

美元正迎来今年的首次月度上涨，这得益于强劲的经济数据、对美国资产前景担忧的消退，以及越来越 多的人相信美联储可能在一段时间内不会再降息。 随着人工智能的热潮推动美国股市连续创下日度新高，以及对美元的无情抛售出现逆转，欧洲股市的优 异表现已陷入停滞，欧元汇率下滑，炙手可热的黄金涨势也陷入停滞。 百达资产管理（Pictet Asset Management）的多元资产联席主管Shaniel Ramjee说，"看空美元和美国，是 人们持有的最大仓位之一。" 美国银行的研究显示，就在7月中旬，看跌美元仍然是全球基金经理中最拥挤的交易。 但是，那些对美元进行短期押注的货币交易员们现在正在退缩。美元在今年上半年遭受了自1973年以来 最糟糕的暴跌。 美元指数目前交投于两个月高点，并有望在7月份上涨3%，这是今年的首次月度增长。 在截至6月份的半年里创下其26年历史上最佳六个月表现的欧元对美元汇率现已跌破1.15，正走向自 2023年5月以来的最大月度跌幅。 埃德蒙·德·罗斯柴尔德资产管理公司的多元资产主管Michael Nizard说，"我们正在看到向美国股市的轮 动，货币市场的轮动，以及（市场）势头的轮动。" 他将华盛 ...

Global Market Insights - 34% of investors believe shorting the US dollar is the most crowded trade, an increase from June, marking the first occurrence of this sentiment [15] - Cash levels have dropped to a historical low of 3.9% in July [6] - Nearly half of the respondents expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, with 26% anticipating that Bostic will become the next Fed Chair [8] - The market expects the final tariff level from the US on other markets to be 14%, slightly up from 12% in June [13] - Global investors have reached a new high in their overweight positions in the euro and European stocks [16] Asia Market Insights - The proportion of investors who believe China's economy will weaken in the next 12 months remains at 10%, unchanged from June [22] - There is an increasing willingness among investors to seek opportunities in markets outside of China compared to June [27] - Investors are more optimistic about Japan's economy, with a notable increase in those expecting improvement [29] - In the Asia-Pacific region, the proportion of investors optimistic about Japan has decreased from 45% to 32%, while those favoring South Korea increased from 5% to 16%, and India from 17% to 10%; however, China's sentiment has worsened from -5% to -13% [32] - Within the Chinese market, the most favored sectors by foreign investors are AI, dividends (now second), and internet, with consumer sectors still not favored [34]

Core Viewpoint - The recent global fund manager survey indicates that shorting the US dollar has become the most crowded trade, with approximately 34% of respondents holding this view, reflecting a significant shift in market sentiment towards the dollar [1][3]. Group 1: Market Sentiment and Positioning - The survey marks the first time in its history that shorting the dollar has replaced going long on gold as the most crowded trade, indicating a heightened bearish sentiment towards the dollar [3]. - Investor positioning shows a low allocation to the dollar, aligning with the conclusion that shorting the dollar is the most crowded trade. Additionally, US stocks, energy, and consumer staples are also underweighted, reflecting a cautious attitude towards multiple sectors in the US market [3][4]. - 47% of investors believe the dollar is overvalued, down from 61% in June, suggesting that while the perception of overvaluation has decreased, it still holds significant weight in the market [4]. Group 2: Risks and Influencing Factors - 14% of investors view a potential dollar crash due to capital outflows as a significant tail risk, which correlates with the crowded short position on the dollar. A sudden dollar rebound could trigger a wave of short covering, increasing market volatility [4][5]. - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key variable influencing the dollar's trajectory. A potential rate cut by the Fed, while other economies maintain or raise rates, could diminish the dollar's appeal [5]. - Global capital flows are crucial; declining confidence in the US market may lead investors to seek better opportunities elsewhere, potentially exacerbating downward pressure on the dollar [5][6]. Group 3: Global Financial Landscape - The trend of shorting the dollar reflects subtle changes in the global monetary system, as emerging economies rise and the global economy becomes more multipolar. While the dollar's dominance is unlikely to be challenged in the short term, increasing bearish sentiment may encourage countries to diversify away from the dollar in international trade and reserves [6].

Group 1: Inflation and Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that potential inflation in the U.S. remains relatively mild, although price pressures are expected to increase during the summer months, with July and August CPI reports being critical [1] - BlackRock notes that the U.S. CPI shows early signs of tariff-driven price increases, particularly in household appliances and entertainment products, suggesting that the full impact of tariffs has yet to materialize [1] - Bank of America reports that 38% of investors view a trade war-induced global recession as the biggest tail risk event, while 20% cite inflation hindering Fed rate cuts as the second-largest risk [3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment and Market Trends - Bank of America finds that 34% of investors believe shorting the dollar is currently the most crowded trade, marking a shift from previous preferences for gold [4] - A significant 59% of investors now believe a recession is unlikely, a notable change from 42% in April, with 65% expecting a soft landing for the economy [5] - Bank of America also reports a record increase in investor positions in euros, with a net 20% of investors overweight in euros, the highest since January 2005 [6] Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - ING analysts expect the Eurozone economy to receive some support from a rebound in factory output, driven by preemptive stockpiling ahead of anticipated U.S. tariffs [7] - ING also warns that if France fails to implement spending cuts to reduce the budget deficit, the euro may face downward pressure [10] - Citic Securities highlights the investment value in the energy storage sector, driven by ongoing market reforms and the establishment of a capacity pricing mechanism [13]

Core Viewpoint - Investors currently view shorting the US dollar as the most crowded trade, with approximately 34% of respondents holding this opinion, marking the first time in the survey's history that shorting the dollar has replaced going long on gold as the most crowded trade [1] Group 1: Investor Sentiment - 47% of investors believe the US dollar is overvalued, a decrease from 61% in the June survey [1] - The survey indicates a low allocation to the US dollar, as well as to US equities, energy, and consumer staples stocks [1] Group 2: Risks - 14% of investors consider a sharp decline in the dollar due to capital outflows as the third-largest tail risk [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline of the US dollar index, which has dropped over 10% since the beginning of the year, is influenced by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and geopolitical factors affecting market confidence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Dollar Index Movement - On June 26, the dollar index fell below the 97 mark, reaching its lowest level since February 2022 [1]. - The dollar has weakened against major currencies, including a drop to a new low against the euro since September 2021 and a decline against the yen and Swiss franc [1]. - The dollar index has decreased over 6.5% since the announcement of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration on April 2 [1][2]. Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - The market is increasingly betting on interest rate cuts, with a 20.7% probability for a cut in July and a 90.3% probability for a cut in September [5]. - Recent economic data, including a significant downward revision of Q1 GDP and weak consumer spending, supports the case for further rate cuts [5][6]. - Analysts predict that the Federal Reserve may implement up to seven rate cuts in 2026, potentially lowering the terminal rate to between 2.5% and 2.75% [5]. Group 3: Geopolitical and Trade Factors - The ongoing trade war and tariff policies are expected to shrink global trade volumes, negatively impacting the dollar's role as a global trade currency [2]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have raised concerns but have not yet led to significant inflationary pressures, which could influence the Fed's decisions [2][3]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Investor Behavior - A survey by Bank of America indicates that shorting the dollar has become the third-largest trade among global fund managers, following bullish positions on gold and major US stocks [2]. - Concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve have been heightened by President Trump's consideration of early nominations for a new Fed chair, which could undermine investor confidence [3][4]. Group 5: Future Outlook for the Dollar - The dollar is expected to continue experiencing low volatility, with potential further declines as the market has already priced in expected rate cuts [6]. - The relative overvaluation of the dollar may lead to a rebalancing of capital flows, potentially weakening the dollar in the medium to long term [6][7].