Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market or still favors TACO trading, but the volatility of equity asset prices may be weaker than that during the April 2025 tariff 1.0 period [6]. - In the short - term, with relatively weak equity elasticity, it's recommended to maintain a moderately low position and focus on low - price convertible bonds with clause resonance, especially export - chain convertible bonds affected by tariff policies [7]. - In the medium - term, the upward repair of domestic micro - enterprise performance is becoming a consensus, and the high - price equity - biased strategy may still be structurally dominant, with high attention on the rotation strategy of small - cap growth convertible bonds in technology self - controllable directions [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 April 2025 Market Phases and Performance - **Tariff Upgrade Pre - period (April 2 - 7)**: A - shares and convertible bonds declined. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 7.34% on April 7, and the Wind Convertible Bond Underlying Stock Weighted Index fell over 12%. High - price convertible bonds led the decline, and the equity - biased convertible bond strategy underperformed the market [1]. - **Tariff Counter - measure Initiation (April 8 - 11)**: A - shares and convertible bonds rebounded. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rebounded 2.45%, and high - price convertible bonds rose 5.38% [1]. - **Trade Friction Continuation (April 12 - 20)**: Market risk - aversion sentiment was high, and financial real - estate and dividend industries performed relatively well. Convertible bonds fluctuated narrowly [2]. - **Trade Friction Easing (April 21 onwards)**: Advanced manufacturing and technology sectors drove the market up, while the financial real - estate sector corrected [2]. 3.2 April 2025 Convertible Bond Market Performance by Industry - **High External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries such as power equipment, machinery, and electronics had deep declines during the tariff upgrade pre - period and weak rebounds later. For example, electronics and home appliance industry convertible bonds' underlying stocks fell over 15% initially and only rebounded about 5% later [3]. - **Balanced Internal and External - demand Exposure Industries**: Industries like national defense and military, computer, and environmental protection had high declines initially but strong rebounds later [3]. - **Domestic - demand - led Industries**: Industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, food and beverage, and transportation had low initial declines and led the rebounds [3]. 3.3 April 2025 Performance of Key Export - chain Convertible Bonds - **Good Initial and Rebound Performance**: Convertible bonds in chemical pesticides (Limin Convertible Bond, Suli Convertible Bond), textile and apparel (Shengtai Convertible Bond), and medical equipment (Yirui Convertible Bond, Kangyi Convertible Bond) had low initial declines and good rebounds [4]. - **High Initial Decline but Strong Rebound**: Convertible bonds in semiconductors (Huaya Convertible Bond, Weil Convertible Bond), military (Ruichuang Convertible Bond, Hangxin Convertible Bond), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (Zhongchong Convertible Bond 2) had high initial declines but strong rebounds [4]. - **Deep Initial Decline and Weak Rebound**: Convertible bonds in consumer electronics, cleaning home appliances, medical outsourcing, and tires had deep initial declines and weak rebounds [4]. 3.4 Current Situation of the Convertible Bond Market - **Investor Behavior**: Since the end of August, investors have tended to "take profits". By the end of September, the scale of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds decreased naturally by 7.1% compared to the end of July. Insurance institutions were the main force in reducing holdings, with a 33% reduction, and other major holders also reduced their holdings [6]. - **Valuation**: Thanks to the reverse increase of public funds, convertible bond valuations are still at a relatively high historical level, and valuation indicators have slightly repaired upwards since late September [6].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of new tariff plans on the US-China economic relationship, Federal Reserve monetary policy, and capital markets. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Impact of New Tariff Plans on US-China Trade** - The new tariff plans have a relatively weakened impact on the US-China economy compared to previous months. Despite a drop in shipping volumes from China to the US in April and May, the rest of the year has shown high shipping levels, indicating limited effects on exports during the fourth quarter trade lull [1][3]. 2. **Inflation and Federal Reserve Policy** - The new tariffs may increase inflation uncertainty, with the September CPI data expected to remain high, prompting the Federal Reserve to adopt a more cautious stance. A 25 basis point rate cut in October is still possible, but future rate cut paths are uncertain, with the Fed potentially leaning towards a more hawkish approach [1][3]. 3. **Market Sensitivity to Tariff News** - Recent tariff announcements have caused significant asset price volatility, exemplified by copper prices dropping sharply before recovering. This indicates that the market is highly sensitive to trade friction developments, necessitating close monitoring of the situation's impact on asset trading [1][3]. 4. **Short-term and Long-term Trading Strategies** - Short-term strategies should focus on safe-haven assets like gold, while mid-term strategies may involve asset allocation in stocks and bonds. Long-term strategies require flexible portfolio adjustments to navigate uncertainties, with a need to track macroeconomic data and policy changes closely [1][4]. 5. **Market Reaction to Tariff Conflicts** - Compared to previous tariff shocks, the US stock market's maximum decline was only 3%, significantly lower than the 18.9% drop seen earlier in the year. This suggests a more subdued market reaction to the current tariff conflicts, with high valuations in US equities posing a risk of profit-taking [5]. 6. **Future Stages of Tariff Conflicts** - The outlook for the next few months can be divided into three phases: immediate escalation, a stabilization period at high tariff levels, and a potential easing phase as political pressures mount on Trump and the Fed. Key dates include the upcoming CPI release and FOMC meeting, which could signal shifts in monetary policy [6][7]. 7. **Long-term Tariff Outlook** - Long-term, tariff issues are expected to recur, similar to the experiences of 2018-2019. The potential for policy adjustments increases as economic pressures mount before the change in Fed leadership in May 2026, which could lead to further inflationary pressures [7]. 8. **Current Trading Operations** - In the current environment, a focus on risk-averse trading is advised, with an emphasis on liquidity risk. As the market faces significant profit-taking pressures, there may be opportunities to buy undervalued assets like gold and short-term US Treasuries. Monitoring trading volumes in major indices and options will be crucial in the coming weeks [8]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - The discussion highlights the interplay between geopolitical events, such as the ceasefire in the Middle East, and domestic economic pressures, which influence tariff decisions and market reactions [2]. - The potential for a new Fed chair and its implications for monetary policy and market dynamics is also a critical point of consideration [8].

Group 1 - The credit market experienced a recovery in the first week after the holiday, with yields on credit bonds across all maturities declining, particularly 2-5 year perpetual bonds leading the gains [1][8] - Long-term credit bonds continued to show weak performance, with credit spreads widening, especially for long-term urban investment bonds [1][8] - The market is currently assessing whether credit can continue to catch up with interest rates and if credit spreads will compress further [1][8] Group 2 - The recent tariff disturbances have led to increased market risk aversion, benefiting the bond market, with the 10-year government bond yield declining approximately 16 basis points over two trading days [2][16] - Short-term credit bonds have generally outperformed interest rate bonds, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads, while longer credit bonds have shown weaker performance [2][16] - The impact of the recent tariff upgrades on the bond market appears to be weaker than earlier in April, with significant uncertainty remaining [2][24] Group 3 - The current tariff disturbances may provide trading opportunities in the bond market, but the overall pricing space is expected to be smaller than the previous tariff shocks [3][28] - The execution of credit strategies should consider the limited space for interest rate declines, with the 10-year government bond yield assessed at a low of 1.70% [3][28] - The credit market is expected to see some seasonal recovery in October, with public funds showing renewed buying interest in perpetual bonds [3][29] Group 4 - The funding environment remains supportive, but the main buying power in the credit market is unlikely to expand significantly in the fourth quarter due to regulatory factors [4][28] - The new regulations on fund sales may introduce redemption friction, impacting credit spreads [4][28] - Mid-term credit bonds are currently viewed as a more suitable asset choice for institutions, especially after the market correction in September [4][28]

Report Overview - Date: October 13, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures - Industry: Green Finance and New Energy 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Nickel**: Macro sentiment has turned bearish, leading to low - level oscillations in nickel prices [2][4]. - **Stainless Steel**: The combination of macro factors and market reality exerts downward pressure, but the cost floor limits the downside potential [2][4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Anticipated tariff hikes are suppressing demand, which may cause lithium prices to face downward pressure [2][7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Upstream production is resuming, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on price rallies [2][10]. - **Polysilicon**: With a weekend meeting held, it is advisable to look for buying opportunities on price dips [2][11]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 122,180 yuan, down 2,300 yuan from the previous day. The stainless - steel main contract closed at 12,780 yuan, down 80 yuan. There were also detailed data on trading volume, spot prices, and spreads [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesia's forestry working group took over a nickel mine due to license violations, potentially affecting monthly production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended a non - official subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies and issued new regulations on mining business plans [4][5][6]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for both nickel and stainless steel is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [6]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,740 yuan, down 600 yuan. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, and various price spreads in the lithium carbonate market [7]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased slightly. Tibetan Mining received new mining rights. Ford postponed lithium purchases and adjusted its electric - vehicle tax - credit plan [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for lithium carbonate is - 1, suggesting a bearish view [9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The Si2511 contract closed at 8,685 yuan/ton. There were detailed data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, spot prices, and profit margins for industrial silicon and polysilicon [11]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The US will impose a 68.45% tariff on metal silicon imports from Angola starting October 1 [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity for industrial silicon is - 1 (bearish), and for polysilicon, it is 0 (neutral) [13].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent escalation of trade tensions between the US and China, highlighting the implications of new tariffs and export controls, and the potential market reactions and strategies for investors [2][4][20]. Summary by Sections Recent Developments - On October 10, President Trump announced a 100% additional tariff on all Chinese products starting November 1, alongside new export controls on key software products, leading to significant market volatility [2][4]. - The Nasdaq index fell by 3.6%, and the VIX index surged to 22, marking the largest fluctuations since the "reciprocal tariffs" in April [2][10]. Tariff and Export Control Measures - The US has implemented additional port fees on Chinese-owned or operated vessels, starting October 14, with fees increasing over the next three years [3][4]. - China responded by imposing special port fees on US vessels, starting at 400 RMB (approximately 56 USD) per net ton, also set to increase over three years [3][4]. - China has tightened export controls on rare earth materials, which account for 61% of global mining share, affecting key industries and supply chains [4][20]. Historical Context and Market Reactions - The article outlines three phases of the current US-China tariff conflict: continuous escalation from January to April, a period of easing from May to September, and a recent re-escalation in October [7][8]. - The current market environment differs from April, with investors having more preparedness and a better understanding of potential outcomes, leading to less severe market reactions compared to previous tariff announcements [10][13]. Future Outlook - The potential for negotiation remains, as both sides have more leverage and preparation compared to earlier phases of the trade conflict. The upcoming APEC meeting may serve as a critical juncture for discussions [20][24]. - The article suggests that the high tariffs could lead to increased inflation in the US and further economic pressure in China, making a compromise more likely to avoid severe economic consequences [20][24]. Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to manage their positions carefully, considering the potential for short-term volatility due to the tariff developments. The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the situation leading up to the APEC meeting [25][26]. - The current market conditions, including high valuations and accumulated gains, may prompt some investors to take profits, leading to short-term fluctuations [25][26].

Group 1 - The U.S. Senate passed a bill to cut $9 billion in foreign aid and public broadcasting funding, escalating bipartisan conflicts [1] - The U.S. House of Representatives approved the "Genius Act," aimed at significant legislative reform for cryptocurrency regulation, which will be submitted to President Trump for signing [1] - The House also passed the "Clarity Act," which seeks to establish a broader regulatory framework for digital assets, now awaiting Senate review [1] Group 2 - President Trump is preparing to open cryptocurrency, gold, and private equity investments to the $9 trillion U.S. retirement market, potentially transforming savings management for Americans [2] - An executive order is expected to be signed soon, allowing alternative investments in 401k plans, including digital assets and private equity funds [2] - The Federal Reserve Chairman emphasized the importance of transparency regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve building, indicating ongoing reviews since 2017 [2] Group 3 - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. decreased by 7,000 to 221,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April and the fifth consecutive week of decline [3] - U.S. retail sales in June increased by 0.6%, surpassing market expectations of 0.1%, with a rebound across 10 out of 13 retail categories, primarily driven by automotive sales [3] - The U.S. housing market index for July was reported at 33, slightly above June's 32, aligning with market expectations [3] Group 4 - Japan's automobile exports to the U.S. fell by 26.7% year-on-year in June, contributing to an 11.4% decline in total exports to the U.S. for the month [4] Group 5 - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose by 229.71 points to 44,484.49, a gain of 0.52%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw increases of 0.54% and 0.75%, respectively [6] - COMEX gold futures decreased by 0.41% to $3,345.40 per ounce, while silver futures increased by 0.83% to $38.44 per ounce [6] - Crude oil prices rose, with light crude futures up by $1.16 to $67.54 per barrel, reflecting a 1.75% increase [6]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles revolves around President Trump's new round of tariffs and the "Big and Beautiful" tax and spending bill, which raises concerns about inflation, economic direction, and global trade dynamics [1][2][10] - Trump's plan to impose a 15% or 20% uniform tariff on nearly all trade partners is expected to create significant uncertainty in the global economy [2][8] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill is projected to increase the U.S. budget deficit by over $3 trillion in the next decade, averaging an increase of $340 billion per year [10][11] Group 2 - The recent tariff increases are not solely aimed at reducing trade deficits but also involve broader geopolitical considerations, as seen in the case of Brazil where a 50% tariff is imposed despite a trade surplus [3][4][5] - The tariffs are primarily directed at smaller emerging market economies, many of which do not have significant trade surpluses with the U.S. [5] - The potential for retaliatory tariffs from other countries could harm U.S. export businesses, leading to a decline in exports and further impacting economic growth and employment [8][9] Group 3 - The inflationary pressures in the U.S. are expected to rise, with the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) predicted to increase from 2.8% to 3.3% by mid-2025 [9] - The U.S. GDP growth rate is forecasted to slow to 1.3% this year, influenced by reduced consumer spending due to inflation [9][10] - The Federal Reserve may delay interest rate cuts until December, with anticipated cuts being smaller than market expectations due to ongoing inflation concerns [10][12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the impact of tariff escalations on gold prices, highlighting a rebound in gold as a safe-haven asset due to increased market uncertainty [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Tariff upgrades are stimulating demand for gold as a hedge against economic instability [1] - The article suggests that the current order flow analysis may provide entry signals for investors looking to capitalize on gold's price movements [1] Group 2: Investment Signals - Real-time analysis of gold order flows is being conducted to identify potential investment opportunities [1] - The article encourages subscribers to engage with ongoing market trend analyses related to commodities [1]

Market Overview - Global markets experienced a mixed performance, with the Hang Seng Index closing at 23,888, down 0.76% for the day but up 40.13% year-to-date [1] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw declines of 0.79% and 0.92% respectively, while the DAX in Germany rose by 0.58% [1] - The report highlights a rise in risk aversion due to escalating trade tensions, particularly with new tariffs imposed by the U.S. on several countries [3] Industry Insights - The Chinese pharmaceutical sector has shown strong performance, with the MSCI China Healthcare Index up 41.4% year-to-date, outperforming the MSCI China Index by 16.2% [4] - The report emphasizes the need for a rational perspective on the valuation of innovative drugs, as the market anticipates higher transaction frequencies and scales for overseas deals [4] - Recent policy measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration are expected to enhance the long-term payment landscape for innovative drugs, with commercial health insurance projected to reach 977.3 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 8.2% [5] Investment Recommendations - The report identifies several companies within the healthcare sector as attractive investment opportunities, including: - **Giant Bio**: Expected sales recovery driven by product and brand expansion [6] - **Guo Shengtang**: Rapid expansion of stores and strong cash flow [6] - **Angelalign**: Improving profitability in overseas markets [6] - Other recommended stocks include: - **Sangfor Technologies (1530 HK)**, **Giant Bio (2367 HK)**, **Guo Shengtang (2273 HK)**, **Angelalign (6699 HK)**, **BeiGene (ONC US)**, and **Innovent Biologics (1801 HK)** [6] Focus Stocks - The report lists several focus stocks with potential upside, including: - **Geely Automobile (175 HK)**: Target price of 24.00, representing a 47% upside [7] - **Xpeng Motors (XPEV US)**: Target price of 28.00, representing a 56% upside [7] - **Sany International (631 HK)**: Target price of 8.70, representing a 32% upside [7] - Other notable mentions include **Luckin Coffee (LKNCY US)**, **Polaire (603605 CH)**, and **Tencent (700 HK)**, all rated as "Buy" with significant upside potential [7]