智通财经记者 | 杨志锦 近日出版的《〈中共中央关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议〉辅导读本》中刊登了中国人民银行行长潘功胜题为《构建科学稳健的货币 政策体系和覆盖全面的宏观审慎管理体系》的署名文章。 对于如何构建科学稳健的货币政策体系，潘功胜在文中指出，不断增强央行政策利率的作用，收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，进一步畅通由央行政策利率向市场 基准利率，再到各种金融市场利率的传导。 其中收窄利率走廊的提法引起市场关注。此前中国的利率走廊上限、下限分别为7天SLF（常备借贷便利）利率、超额准备金利率，二者之差也被称为利率 走廊的宽度，市场基准利率在上下限之间围绕政策利率（7天逆回购利率）波动。 智通财经记者采访了解到，前述利率走廊宽度较宽，实践中个别时段市场基准利率大幅低于政策利率，弱化了政策利率的引导作用，而收窄利率走廊有助于 解决这一问题，同时为货币政策框架由数量型向价格型转变奠定基础。不过调整原利率走廊上下限也会面临新的问题，因此收窄利率走廊或是构建新走廊。 具体看，新走廊上限为临时隔夜逆回购操作利率、下限为临时隔夜正回购操作利率，其宽度仅70bp，相比原利率走廊收窄135bp。与之相对应的，市场 ...

证券研究报告·宏观报告·宏观深度报告 宏观深度报告 20251119 ◼ 我们预计 2026 年货币政策或延续支持性政策立场："数量"上通过不同 期限流动性工具搭配呵护市场，"降准"仍有 1-2 次的操作空间，国债买 卖操作将进一步常态化，并且成为"降准"的有效补充；"价格"上政策 利率或有 1-2 次"降息"空间，对应 10-20bps 调降幅度；在政策导向上 保持合理的利率比价关系，10 年期国债利率或在 1.70%-2.0%区间内波 动，30 年期利率或在 1.90%-2.30%区间内波动，合理期限溢价或是货币 政策和市场交易动态博弈的结果。 ◼ "利率水平"调节：收窄"利率走廊"、常态化国债买卖 在"利率比价"中寻锚 ——2026 年度展望:货币政策 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 核心观点： ◼ "利率比价"调节：保持合理的利率比价关系成为新的政策导向 2025 年 11 月 19 日 证券分析师 芦哲 执业证书：S0600524110003 luzhe@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 王洋 执业证书：S0600524120012 wangyang@dwzq.com.cn ...

利率走廊收窄的债市含义 20251118 理想中的短期利率走廊应具备以下特征：一是能够有效控制市场基准利率如 DR007 等波动区间，使其围绕政策目标稳定运行；二是具有灵活且透明的调控 机制，以便及时应对市场变化；三是涵盖广泛，包括商业银行及非银机构，以 确保全面覆盖金融体系各类参与者。 可以借鉴美联储经验。在 2008 年次贷危 机前，美联储通过日常 OMO 操作使实际联邦基金有效利用 EFFF 围绕目标波动， 实现精准管控。次贷危机后，由于 QE 导致银行间流动性过剩，美联储创设 IORB 与 ONRRP 组成新的地板系统，通过这些工具调整市场流动性。因此，我 国央行可考虑类似方式，通过日常精准投放与新型工具组合，提高资金面稳定 性与预见性，从而增强金融服务实体经济效能。 收窄短期利率走廊会对债市产生哪些具体影响？ 潘功胜行长在十五规划学习材料中提到要收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这对央行 货币政策操作和债市定价有何影响？ 潘功胜行长提到收窄短期利率走廊的宽度，这将对央行货币政策操作和债市定 价产生深远影响。目前，人民银行已初步形成以 7 天逆回购利率为基准政策利 率、DR007 为基准市场利率的货币政策调控框 ...

美联储结束缩表 20251117 摘要 美联储于 2025 年 10 月宣布降息 25 个基点，并将联邦基金利率目标区 间下调至 3.75%-4%，同时停止缩表，结束了自 2022 年开始的量化紧 缩政策。此举旨在应对银行系统流动性下降和货币市场利率上升的压力。 自 2022 年缩表以来，美联储资产负债表规模从 8.9 万亿美元降至 6.5 万亿美元，银行准备金规模减少超过 1.4 万亿美元，隔夜逆回购操作规 模也大幅下降，显示银行系统流动性显著收紧。 为维持市场流动性，美联储运用隔夜成本回购操作（上限 5,000 亿美元， 利率 4%）和隔夜逆回购操作（上限 1,600 亿美元，利率 3.75%）等工 具，调节市场利率使其保持在目标区间内。 停止缩表意味着美联储将不再减少其资产负债表上的证券资产，到期赎 回的美债本金将全部再投资于美债，机构证券本金也将再投资于美债， 长期可能持有更多美国国债。 美联储通过常备回购便利工具（SRF）提供短期流动性，允许金融机构 以证券作为抵押获得资金。2025 年 10 月末，SRF 操作规模达到 500 亿美元，反映流动性紧张程度。 Q&A 美联储在 2025 年 10 月 ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Outlook - The report highlights that both the US and China are entering critical years, with global investment driven by three and a half engines: AI investment, defense spending, and industrial restructuring [1][14] - The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to recover, with a focus on domestic demand and technology as key policy areas [1][2] - The transition from old to new economic drivers in China is anticipated to gain momentum, leading to a rebalancing of supply and demand [2][11] Group 2: Policy Environment - The "15th Five-Year Plan" sets a supportive policy tone, with monetary policy expected to remain accommodative, albeit with less room than in the current year [3][15] - Fiscal policy is projected to maintain a certain level of expansion, with total tools estimated at 15.7 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan from this year [3][15] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural tools and the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies to support various sectors [3][15] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The narrative of "asset scarcity" in the bond market is expected to weaken, with a focus on the verification of corporate profits and capacity utilization [4][18] - The report notes that government bond supply is likely to increase, but market pressure will be manageable due to central bank support [4][18] - Institutional behavior is identified as a major source of market volatility, with a reduction in stable funding leading to increased market fluctuations [4][18] Group 4: Bond Market Strategy - The bond market is expected to maintain a "low interest rate + high volatility" characteristic, with the central rate likely remaining stable or slightly increasing [5][18] - The report suggests a strategy of segment trading, coupon strategies, and equity exposure as priorities over duration adjustment and credit downgrading [5][18] - The ten-year government bond yield is projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 2.1%, with a widening of term spreads anticipated [5][18]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Market Liquidity - The central bank's OMO net injection was 1.2008 trillion yuan, and MLF net injection was 200 billion yuan this week[7] - DR001 and DR007 both reached their lowest averages of the year in October, with DR001 at 1.32% and DR007 at 1.46%[25] - The interest rate spread between DR001 and OMO hit a new low since March 2024, while the spread between DR007 and OMO reached a new low since August 2023[22] Group 2: Market Trends and Institutional Behavior - The average daily transaction volume of pledged repos decreased by 1.12 trillion yuan to 6.7 trillion yuan compared to last week[16] - Non-bank rigid financing increased significantly, with wealth management and money market funds seeing substantial rises[16] - The funding gap index adjusted for seasonality rose early in the week but fell midweek, ending at -1843, which is higher than last week's -4056 but still low for the month-end[16] Group 3: Future Outlook and Risks - The central bank's governor indicated that the current funding rates are within a framework of loose monetary policy, with DR001 having a theoretical lower limit of 1.2% and a remaining space of 10 basis points[26] - The resumption of government bond purchases suggests that monetary easing is still necessary to support the economy, indicating that the interest rate cut cycle is not over[30] - Risks include potential monetary policy actions not meeting expectations and unexpected fluctuations in the funding environment[16]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes that market volatility is primarily driven by marginal changes in policy intentions rather than personal feelings, highlighting the importance of understanding policy direction in the bond market [1]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The manufacturing PMI for October was reported at 49, significantly below expectations (49.6) and the previous value (49.8), indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector [6]. - The stock market experienced fluctuations, while the bond market showed a positive sentiment early in the day, with the 10-year government bond yield starting at 1.802% and dropping to around 1.792% [6]. - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation of 355.1 billion yuan for 7 days, with a net injection of 187.1 billion yuan after 168 billion yuan matured [4]. Group 2: Interest Rates and Bond Yields - The interbank funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.32% and DR007 at approximately 1.46% [4]. - The weighted rates for various repo codes indicated a mixed trend, with R001 at 1.41% (up 4 basis points) and R007 at 1.49% (down 6 basis points) [5]. - The current interest rate corridor is noted to be between 1.2% and 1.9%, suggesting a potential narrowing of the corridor width, which may imply a reduction in the adjustment range for rates [7]. Group 3: Industry Insights - The article mentions a significant decline in profits for major liquor companies, with the top five brands experiencing nearly a 20% drop, reflecting broader economic challenges [7]. - The sentiment in the liquor industry is contrasted with the bond market, suggesting that while the liquor sector faces difficulties, the bond market may continue to perform steadily [7].

Economic Indicators - The U.S. GDP growth rate is projected to be 4.0% for Q1 2024, with a gradual decline to 2.0% by Q4 2025[7] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index is expected to show fluctuations, with a notable drop to -6.0% in Q1 2024[7] Federal Reserve Projections - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is expected to maintain interest rates between 5.30% and 5.80% through mid-2025[5] - Market expectations for a rate cut in December 2025 are at 67.79% probability, decreasing to 32.21% for a higher rate[10] Inflation Metrics - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to stabilize around 3.0% by mid-2024, with a potential increase to 4.0% by Q1 2025[14] - The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation rate is anticipated to be 2.5% in 2024, reflecting a slight increase from previous years[14] Housing Market Trends - The median home price in the U.S. is expected to rise steadily, reaching approximately $400,000 by late 2025[8] - Existing home sales are projected to increase by 5% annually, indicating a recovering housing market[8] Labor Market Insights - Initial jobless claims are forecasted to remain below 200,000, indicating a strong labor market[16] - The labor force participation rate is expected to stabilize around 62% by 2025, reflecting a balanced labor market[16]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China has announced a change in the operation of the 14-day reverse repurchase agreement, shifting to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price level bidding system, which is expected to enhance liquidity management in the banking system [4][5]. Summary by Sections Event - On September 19, 2025, the People's Bank of China announced that the 14-day reverse repurchase operation would now be conducted with fixed quantity and interest rate bidding, along with multiple price level bidding [4]. Commentary - The primary policy interest rate in China is the 7-day Open Market Operation (OMO) rate, which is crucial for signaling monetary policy. The fixed rate bidding is deemed most appropriate. Compared to variable rate bidding, the new system allows for better allocation of scarce central bank funds to those truly in need. Traders seeking 14-day OMO funds can bid at higher rates, increasing their chances of full allocation. This change is expected to stabilize the short end of the yield curve and maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [5][6]. - It is anticipated that the 14-day OMO operations will occur more frequently than in previous years, not limited to just before major holidays. The first operation under the new bidding method is likely to take place on September 22 [5]. Interest Rate Corridor - The 7-day and 14-day OMOs are seen as new partners in maintaining liquidity, while the interest rate corridor serves as an old tool to stabilize short-term rate fluctuations. The upper limit of the corridor is the Standing Lending Facility (SLF) rate, which varies with the 7-day OMO rate, maintaining a 100 basis point spread. The lower limit is the Interest on Excess Reserves (IOER), currently at 0.35% [7]. - Narrowing the interest rate corridor could reduce fluctuations in the DR (Deposit Rate) and enhance the effectiveness of interest rate control. Two methods could achieve this: lowering the SLF rate in line with the 7-day OMO rate or reducing the spread above the OMO rate [7][8]. Market Activity - Concerns about whether lowering the SLF rate would lead to increased trading with the central bank and reduce market activity are deemed unfounded. The SLF operation volumes from May to August 2025 were significantly lower than the interbank repo transaction volumes. The current spread between the 7-day SLF and DR007 rates is at a moderate level, suggesting that a reduction in the SLF rate would not lead to excessive reliance on it by market participants [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the changes in China's monetary policy framework and its implications for economic growth and liquidity management. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Monetary Policy Changes**: Since 2025, the main constraints on monetary policy have shifted from stabilizing the exchange rate to addressing net interest margin pressures and risk prevention. The exchange rate is no longer a significant constraint as of Q2 2025, with the USDCNH and USDCNY reaching a unified rate of 7.10 [2][3][4]. 2. **Need for Rate Cuts**: The necessity for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio (RRR) reductions is increasing, particularly if Q3 GDP growth falls below 5.0%. Economic data from July and August has consistently underperformed expectations, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments [4][24][26]. 3. **Government Bond Trading Resumption**: The conditions for resuming government bond trading are becoming more favorable. After a pause in Q1 2025, market expectations for a resumption have grown, especially if the Ministry of Finance issues bonds early in Q4 2025, which could alleviate supply pressure [5][26]. 4. **Framework Evolution**: The monetary policy framework has evolved to focus more on price-based controls rather than quantity-based tools. Key indicators now include M2, social financing, and loan growth, reflecting a shift in the central bank's strategy to stabilize economic growth [6][8][27]. 5. **Liquidity Management**: The liquidity management framework has changed significantly, relying on various tools such as overnight and 7-day reverse repos, with government bond trading serving as a supplementary tool when other methods are insufficient [13][14][19]. 6. **Dual Pillar System**: The dual pillar system distinguishes between monetary policy aimed at macroeconomic stability and macro-prudential policy focused on preventing systemic financial risks. This includes measures like the "three red lines" in the real estate sector [10][11][12]. 7. **Interest Rate Corridor Adjustments**: The interest rate corridor mechanism has undergone changes, with the 7-day reverse repo rate becoming the primary policy rate. The new corridor reflects a narrower range of fluctuations compared to previous versions [20][23]. 8. **Future Expectations**: There is a high probability of further rate cuts and RRR reductions in Q4 2025 to support economic growth targets. The resumption of government bond trading is also anticipated as a liquidity management tool rather than a price control measure [26][27]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content - The central bank's focus on price-based tools indicates a strategic shift in response to changing economic conditions, emphasizing the need for market adaptation to these evolving frameworks [27]. - The potential for hidden interest rate hikes due to increased government bond supply highlights the delicate balance the central bank must maintain in managing liquidity and interest rates [5][19].