软商品日报 2026/01/09 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

人民财讯1月9日电，国内商品期货收盘，多晶硅主力合约跌超8%，沪镍、BR橡胶跌超2%。钯涨6%， LU燃油、原油涨超3%，燃料油涨超2%。 （原标题：国内商品期货收盘 多晶硅跌超8%） ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - The report provides trend analyses and investment suggestions for various energy and chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, rubber, and others, based on market dynamics, fundamental data, and industry news [2][4]. - Overall, most futures are expected to show short - term fluctuations, with some facing supply - demand pressures and others influenced by cost, inventory, and macro - factors [10][11]. Summaries by Related Catalogs PX, PTA, MEG - **Market Conditions**: Crude oil prices declined due to the expected increase in Venezuelan production. PX physical market showed limited improvement, and polyester sales were mixed [6][8][10]. - **Trend and Suggestions**: PX is in a short - term high - level oscillation with weakened industrial aspects. PTA is in a high - level oscillation with cost weakness. MEG has limited upside and remains under medium - term pressure [10][11]. Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Rubber futures showed changes in price, volume, and open interest. Spot prices of some rubber types increased, and Thai raw material prices rose [12][13][14]. - **Trend**: Rubber is expected to oscillate, supported by rising raw material costs and improved production orders [12][14]. Synthetic Rubber - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of synthetic rubber changed. Spot prices of related products increased, and butadiene prices rose [15]. - **Trend**: Synthetic rubber is expected to be relatively strong, driven by improved spot trading and cost - push from butadiene [16][17]. LLDPE - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of LLDPE changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [18]. - **Trend**: LLDPE shows a weak - stable basis. Supply - demand pressure may arise from high capacity and weakening demand [18][19]. PP - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PP changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [21]. - **Trend**: PP is boosted by macro - sentiment, but fundamental improvement is limited due to weak demand and high cost [21][22]. Caustic Soda - **Fundamental Data**: Futures and spot prices of caustic soda are provided, with a negative basis [24]. - **Trend**: The rebound of caustic soda is difficult to sustain due to high production, high inventory, and weak demand [25]. Pulp - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of pulp changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [30]. - **Trend**: Pulp is expected to oscillate, with cost support and weak demand in a state of game [31][32]. Glass - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of glass changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest increased [34]. - **Trend**: Glass prices are stable, with limited sales improvement during the holiday [34]. Methanol - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of methanol changed. Trading volume increased, and open interest decreased [37]. - **Trend**: Methanol is expected to oscillate and decline, with coastal ports accumulating inventory and weakening basis [39]. Urea - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of urea changed. Trading volume decreased, and open interest increased [42]. - **Trend**: Urea is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with a potential mid - term upward shift in the center, supported by agricultural demand expectations [43][44]. Styrene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and profit margins of styrene changed. Spot prices and inventory levels are provided [45]. - **Trend**: Styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with high valuation and potential short - selling opportunities [46]. Soda Ash - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of soda ash changed. Trading volume was high, and open interest decreased [51]. - **Trend**: The spot market of soda ash has little change, with high supply and weak demand [51]. LPG and Propylene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, and open interests of LPG and propylene changed. Spot prices and spreads are provided [56]. - **Trend**: LPG has a firm import cost, and attention should be paid to the realization of negative feedback. Propylene demand is stable, and spot prices are slightly rising [55][56]. PVC - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, basis, and spot prices of PVC changed [64]. - **Trend**: PVC's short - term rebound is difficult to sustain due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, but potential supply - side improvements may occur in the future [64][65]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and spot prices of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil changed [68]. - **Trend**: Fuel oil shows a narrow - range oscillation with support below. Low - sulfur fuel oil has reduced fluctuations, and the high - low sulfur spread in the spot market continues to narrow [68]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, trading volumes, open interests, and freight rates of the container shipping index (European Line) changed [70]. - **Trend**: The freight rate peak has emerged. It is advisable to wait and see for the 02 contract and short at high prices for the 04 contract [70][79][82]. Short - Fiber and Bottle Chip - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of short - fiber and bottle chip changed. Sales rates are provided [84]. - **Trend**: Both short - fiber and bottle chip are expected to oscillate in the short - term [84][85]. Offset Printing Paper - **Fundamental Data**: Spot prices, cost - profit data, and futures prices of offset printing paper are provided [87]. - **Trend**: It is advisable to wait and see for offset printing paper, with stable spot prices and poor market demand [88][90]. Pure Benzene - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices, spreads, and spot prices of pure benzene changed. Inventory levels are provided [91]. - **Trend**: Pure benzene is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with increasing port inventory [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of soybean meal futures is expected to be oscillating strongly, and the medium - term is expected to be oscillating. The short - and medium - term prices of palm oil and soybean oil futures are expected to be oscillating, and the intraday performance is expected to be oscillating weakly [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Variety 3.1 Soybean Meal (M) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating strongly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating strongly [5] - **Core Logic**: China's purchase of US soybeans boosts US soybean futures prices, but the pressure of Brazil's high - yield still exists. The market focuses on the US Department of Agriculture report next Monday. The short - term rebound space of US soybean futures prices is limited. Domestic oil mills still have soybean meal inventory pressure. After New Year's Day, replenishment by traders and feed mills drives up trading volume. In the short term, soybean meal is boosted by both short - term supply shortage and long - term cost support, so the futures price is oscillating strongly [5] 3.2 Palm Oil (P) - **Price Trend**: Intraday view is oscillating weakly, medium - term view is oscillating, and reference view is oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: BMD crude palm oil fluctuates in a narrow range. Supported by the rebound of the entire oil and fat sector and the weakening of the ringgit, the decline in crude oil limits the increase; US soybean oil rises. On the one hand, Indonesia's biodiesel policy is less than expected. On the other hand, the market expects that next week's Malaysian palm report may further push up Malaysian palm inventory. Palm oil faces the greatest inventory pressure, and the domestic palm oil inventory continues to rise, highlighting the pressure on palm oil spot and futures prices. In the short term, the palm oil futures price is weaker than other oils and fats and should be treated as oscillating weakly [7] 3.3 Other Information - For soybean meal 2605, factors affecting the price include import soybean cost, import arrival rhythm, oil mill start - up rhythm, and inventory pressure. For soybean oil 2605, factors include US soybean cost support, US biofuel policy, US soybean oil inventory, domestic soybean cost support, supply rhythm, and oil mill inventory. For palm 2605, factors include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesia's biodiesel and export policies, EU - related policy changes, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [6]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 白糖： （张笑金，从业资格号：F0306200；交易咨询资格号：Z0000082） 消息方面，截至2025年12月31日，云南全省共入榨甘蔗346.10万吨（上榨季同期入榨甘蔗281.35万 吨），产糖39.23万吨（上榨季同期产糖32.69万吨），产糖率11.34%（上榨季同期产糖率11.62%）。生 产酒精0.129万吨（上榨季同期生产酒精0.096万吨）。云南省累计销售新糖28.14万吨（去年同期销糖 26.71万吨），销糖率71.72%（去年同期销糖率81.70%）。单月销售食糖24.91万吨（去年同期单月销售 食糖23.44万吨），工业库存11.09万吨（去年同期工业库存5.98万吨）。现货报价方面，广西制糖集团 报价区间为5320~5380元/吨，上调10~30元/吨；云南制糖集团报价5140~5230元/吨，上调10~20元/吨。 原糖方面，北半球压榨稳步进行，市场并无新的主导因素。国内近期金融市场、大宗商品普涨，投资市 场情绪偏暖，糖价受此提振小幅反弹，短期仍将受这种情绪影响，震荡偏强，可关注市场给出的卖保机 会。基本面方面近期 ...

每经AI快讯，1月7日，国内商品期货夜盘开盘涨跌不一，沪金跌0.58%，沪银跌2.57%，沪铜跌0.86%， 铁矿涨1.47%，焦煤涨4.67%，玻璃涨1.24%，原油跌0.58%。 ...

品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2026 年 1 月 6 日） 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏强 核心逻辑：美豆期价在 1050 美分/蒲式耳震荡。虽巴西收割量偏低，但美豆出口窗口收窄，而阿根廷南部 高温少雨引发市场关注，带动美豆粕低位反弹，后续需紧盯巴西收割进度与阿根廷天气变化。国内市场静 待拍卖消息；豆粕延续近强远弱格局，远月受美豆疲软、人民币升值等压制，短期低位震荡反复。整体看， 豆类市场多空交织，美豆聚焦南美收割与天气博弈，国内则受现货报价松动及政策预期影响，短期难破震 荡区间。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建 ...

2026年01月05日 星期一 商品期货早班车 招商期货-期货研究报告 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现：周五铜价震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 基本面：周三白银 COMEX 提保，压制金属整体价格。中国 PMI 超预期。美国抓捕委内瑞拉总统，市场担忧 | | | | 铜 | 南美铜供应问题。供应端，铜矿紧张格局不改。需求端，铜价调整后贴水缩小。精废价差 3400 元附近。 | | | | | 交易策略：逢低做多。 | | | | | 风险提示：全球需求不及预期。仅供参考。 | | | | | 市场表现：周三电解铝主力合约收盘价较前一交易日+1.60%，收于 22925 元/吨，国内 0-3 月差-370 | 元/吨， | | | | LME 价格 3021 美元/吨。 | | | | | 基本面：供应方面，电解铝厂维持高负荷生产，运行产能小幅增加。需求方面，周度铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | | 铝 | 交易策略：宏观环境延续积极态势，LME 铝价突破 3000 美元/吨形成强劲外部带动，不过国内库存仍在持续 | | | | ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 多空僵持，焦煤低位运行 | | 焦炭 | 2605 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 震荡思路 | 供需企稳，焦炭低位整理 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：进入新一年度，此前因完成年度生产目标而停产 ...

新华财经北京12月31日电 国内商品期货市场12月31日跌多涨少，其中沪镍、沪铝主力合约涨超2%；铝合金、氧化铝、玻璃、多晶硅主力合约涨超1%。下跌 品种中，铂主力合约跌超12%；钯主力合约跌超5%；沪银主力合约跌超4%；LU主力合约跌超2%；燃料油、SC原油、焦炭、硅铁主力合约跌超1%。 截至31日下午收盘，中证商品期货价格指数收报1571.11点，较前一交易日下跌12.62点，跌幅0.80%；中证商品期货指数收报2167.95点，较前一交易日下跌 17.41点，跌幅0.80%。 铂钯继续大跌 SC原油连续五日收跌 美联储内部对降息路径存在分歧，可能削弱宽松预期；同时，芝商所发布通知，将在周三（12月31日）收市后，再次上调贵金属期货保证金，恰逢国内市场 年内最后一个交易日，贵金属全线回落，其中铂钯已连续三个交易日大跌。展望后市，市场仍普遍对贵金属的长期前景看好，而对于铂钯来说，银河期货表 示，现阶段市场铂、钯高频基本面数据有限，铂、钯行情暂时缺乏相应数据进行行情演绎，从季度、年度级别基本面数据来看，铂金、钯金总体呈现紧平衡 格局，铂金2025年总体供需处于偏紧状态，铂金显性库存有去化表现，基本面有支撑，因 ...