综合来看，宏观情绪继续主导市场价格走向叠加周边金属的带动，锌价受影响情绪亢奋，今现锌或上 涨。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-5668838） 长江锌业网（pb.ccmn.cn）今日现货锌价行情预估：美股全线下挫与美指走强压制，隔夜伦锌收跌 0.36%，收报3202美元/吨； 宏观上，美国 12 月 CPI 同比涨 2.7%符合预期，维持市场对美联储年内降息预期；全球流动性宽松、地 缘冲突升温推升战略金属风险溢价，油价涨超 2%支撑风险资产。新兴领域发展提升中长期需求，资金 做多推动铜铝锡创新高，带动锌价走强。中国财政政策持续发力，助力 2026 年经济稳健开局。 基本面方面，国内锌市供需两弱，供应端有边际增加预期，压制锌价反弹高度，不过受周边品种上涨带 动且加工费低、政策有支撑，锌价维持偏强格局。1 月国内锌精矿加工费整体下行，北方降幅大于南 方。进口窗口打开，沪伦比值回升，进口矿成交增多，加工费在 40 - 50 美元/干吨震荡，矿端紧张未加 剧。冶炼端有复产预期，常规检修规模下修，一季度产量上调，叠加火烧云推进，预计春节累库 7 万 吨，短期供应压力小。现货市场货源增多，锌价反复致持 ...

2026年01月14日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑偏强 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：聚酯计划减产，关注兑现力度 | 2 | | MEG：估值下方空间有限 | 2 | | 橡胶：宽幅震荡20260114 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:高位震荡 | 6 | | LLDPE：标品排产偏低维持，现货挺涨基差转正 | 8 | | PP：下游抢出口支撑丙烯，PP成本支撑偏强 | 9 | | 烧碱：偏弱震荡 | 10 | | 纸浆：震荡运行20260114 | 11 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 13 | | 甲醇：震荡有支撑 | 14 | | 尿素：震荡运行 | 16 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 18 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 20 | | LPG：短期供应偏紧，地缘扰动偏强 | 21 | | 丙烯：现货供需收紧，趋势偏强 | 21 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 24 | | 燃料油：地缘推涨，下方仍有支撑 | 25 | | 低硫燃料油：跟涨为主，外盘现货高低硫价差持续反弹 | 25 | | 集运指数（欧线）：弱势运行 | 26 | | 短纤： ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The prices of metal commodities have risen significantly, with COMEX gold and silver increasing by 4.07% and 12.36% respectively, while LME copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin saw increases of 4.24%, 4.00%, 0.85%, 2.14%, 5.25%, and 12.75% respectively [1] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF, which tracks the China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals Mining Index, has shown a remarkable increase of 120% over the past year, with key metals like gold, copper, and aluminum making up nearly 60% of its weight [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ping An Securities, silver is expected to maintain a continuous shortage globally due to its rigid supply characteristics, even amidst short-term demand fluctuations. The long-term supply-demand dynamics for silver are anticipated to remain favorable, driven by the AI industry and overseas re-industrialization [1][8] - Galaxy Securities suggests that escalating global geopolitical conflicts may lead major powers to strengthen their control and reserves of critical strategic metal resources, potentially reshaping global metal supply chains and catalyzing demand and value reassessment for key strategic metals like copper, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, and rare earth materials [1][8] Group 3: Historical Performance and Trends - The non-ferrous mining index has shown a higher elasticity compared to similar indices, with a cumulative increase of 172.62% over the past decade and an annualized growth rate of 10.87% [3][5] - The historical performance of the non-ferrous metal mining theme index indicates fluctuations, with notable annual performances of 39.73% in 2021, -20.60% in 2022, and -11.19% in 2023 [10]

作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 1月12日，全球贵金属市场迎来 "沸腾时刻"。 COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，首次站上每盎司4600美元整数关口，盘中最高触及4612美元/盎 司；COMEX白银同步强势跟涨，最高触及84.69美元/盎司，盘中涨幅一度超过6%。 国内市场跟涨，截至12日收盘，沪金期货主力合约盘中最高涨至1031元/克，沪银期货主力合约单 日涨幅高达14%，收报20945元/千克，7个远月合约均收于涨停。 "周一（1月12日）金银价格再创新高，将维持对贵金属的看涨预期，"南华期货贵金属新能源研究 组负责人夏莹莹对记者称，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔被调查一事具有突发性，但它对贵金属市场的影响 不是短期的，而是给上涨行情添加速度。长期看，美联储独立性受损属于不可逆的制度性损伤，叠加 地缘冲突、全球去美元化、各国央行持续购金等核心叙事形成共振，共同强化贵金属的上涨逻辑。 但高位波动风险不容忽视，近期全球期货交易所干预措施频出，贵金属品种交易保证金被多次提高。 1月12日盘后，上海黄金交易所发布通知称，近期受多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确 定性持续上升。并提示各会员单位密切关注市场行情变化，投资者做好 ...

1月12日，全球贵金属市场迎来 "沸腾时刻"。 COMEX黄金期货价格直线拉升，首次站上每盎司4600美元整数关口，盘中最高触及4612美元/盎 司；COMEX白银同步强势跟涨，最高触及84.69美元/盎司，盘中涨幅一度超过6%。 国内市场跟涨，截至12日收盘，沪金期货主力合约盘中最高涨至1031元/克，沪银期货主力合约单 日涨幅高达14%，收报20945元/千克，7个远月合约均收于涨停。 2026.01. 12 本文字数：2344，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 齐琦 "周一（1月12日）金银价格再创新高，将维持对贵金属的看涨预期，"南华期货贵金属新能源研究 组负责人夏莹莹对记者称，尽管美联储主席鲍威尔被调查一事具有突发性，但它对贵金属市场的影响 不是短期的，而是给上涨行情添加速度。长期看，美联储独立性受损属于不可逆的制度性损伤，叠加 地缘冲突、全球去美元化、各国央行持续购金等核心叙事形成共振，共同强化贵金属的上涨逻辑。 但高位波动风险不容忽视，近期全球期货交易所干预措施频出，贵金属品种交易保证金被多次提高。 1月12日盘后，上海黄金交易所发布通知称，近期受多重因素影响，贵金属价格波动显著加剧，不确 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates a significant increase in copper prices driven by various macroeconomic factors and market dynamics [1][2][3] Group 2 - On January 12, copper futures in Shanghai opened strongly, with the main contract reaching a closing price of 100,280 yuan/ton, up 3.51% from the previous day [1] - The London copper price also saw an increase, with the latest quote at 13,192.5 USD/ton, rising by 227 USD/ton, or 1.75% [1] - Domestic spot copper prices surged, with the Yangtze River 1 copper price reported at 103,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,600 yuan [1] Group 3 - The macroeconomic environment is influenced by the U.S. Department of Justice's threat to prosecute Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, which is perceived as an attempt by the Trump administration to interfere with interest rate decisions [1] - The weakening of the U.S. dollar has made dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to foreign buyers, contributing to the rise in commodity prices [1] Group 4 - The Chinese Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of VAT export rebates for photovoltaic products starting April 1, 2026, which may lead to a short-term boost in the photovoltaic sector and subsequently support copper prices [2] - Despite the increase in copper prices, the domestic copper concentrate processing fees remain under pressure, and the market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in demand [2] - Recent data shows a significant increase in copper inventory, with Shanghai Futures Exchange copper stocks rising by 24.22% to 180,543 tons, the highest in nearly nine months [2] Group 5 - The technical outlook suggests that copper prices are likely to maintain a strong upward trend in the short term [3]

商 品 研 究 2026 年 01 月 12 日 合成橡胶: 高位震荡 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 合成橡胶基本面数据 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 | 日盘收盘价 成交量 | （元/吨） （手） | 12,015 101,221 | 12,195 167,637 | -180 -66416 | | | （02合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 26,339 | 30,228 | -3889 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 609,966 | 1,028,916 | -418950 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -15 | -95 | 80 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -35 | -35 | 0 | | | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,600 | 11,650 | -50 | | | | ...

铅周报 2026 年 1 月 12 日 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 基本面指引有限 铅价跟随板块运行 核心观点及策略 要点 要点 上周沪铅主力期价冲高回落。宏观面看，国内外保持货 币宽松预期，且地缘冲突提升资源端溢价，贵金属有色 受振普涨。 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1/7 一、 要点 基本面，北方矿山延续季节性检修，国内铅矿原料供应 偏紧态势不改，加工费维持低位态势，波动较小。废旧 电瓶方面，后半周铅价回落后，回收商囤货意愿降低， 市场货源增加后价格小幅调整，但幅度有限。1 月电解 铅炼厂减复产并存，减产集中在江西及湖南，增量集中 在安徽及云南地区，预计产量环比小幅增加。再生铅方 面，原 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the company's business has not been affected by geopolitical conflicts as of the current date [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that gold prices are currently experiencing a tug-of-war between bullish and bearish sentiments due to recent market dynamics and economic indicators [2] - On January 9, the Shanghai gold spot price was quoted at 1000.85 yuan per gram, showing a discount of 5.63 yuan per gram compared to the futures main price of 1006.48 yuan per gram [1] - The U.S. initial jobless claims rose to 208,000, slightly below market expectations, while the previous value was revised up by 1,000 to 200,000, indicating a stable labor market [1] Group 2 - According to Guangfa Futures, the adjustment in commodity index weights has triggered short-term selling, while rising inflation expectations and favorable employment data support gold prices [2] - International gold prices increased by 0.5% to 4477.39 USD per ounce, with a session low of 4407.29 USD per ounce, and global gold ETF inflows for 2025 are expected to reach a historical high [2] - The medium to long-term outlook for gold remains positive, with recommendations to hold long positions above 4300 USD, while monitoring the gold-silver ratio and U.S. non-farm payroll data [3]