能源化工日报 2026-03-04 2026/03/04 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收涨 61.30 元/桶，涨幅 12.00%，报 572.30 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高 硫燃料油收涨 372.00 元/吨，涨幅 12.00%，报 3473.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 440.00 元/吨， 涨幅 11.98%，报 4112.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 1.43 百万桶至 199.82 百万桶，环比去库 0.71%； 汽油商业库存去库 0.42 百万桶至 94.58 百万桶，环比去库 0.44%；柴油商业库存累库 9.22 百 万桶至 111.99 百万桶，环比累库 8.97%；总成品油商业库存累库 8.80 百万桶至 206.58 百万 桶，环比累库 4.45%。 严梓桑（联系人） 油品、甲醇、尿素、聚烯 烃、苯系分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 yanzs@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉 ...

原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/03 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2026/02/24 | 65.63 | 70.77 | 68.23 | - | 0.19 | -5.14 | 2.04 | 197.14 | 12.03 | 268.69 | 42.08 | | 2026/02/25 | 65.42 | 70.85 | 68.32 | 0.43 | 0.16 | -5.43 | 1.78 | 199.14 | 12.79 | 267.40 | 41.46 | | 2026/02/26 ...

2026 年 3 月 3 日 集运指数（欧线）：继续关注短线上行风险 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | 昨日成交/持仓 | 前日成交/持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | EC2604 | 1,429.2 | 15.00% | 81,309 | 46,243 | 8,998 | 1.76 | 0.86 | | | EC2606 | 1,885.1 | 14.99% | 16,174 | 20,767 | 3,680 | 0.78 | 0.27 | | | EC2610 | 1,342.9 | 14.99% | 14,322 | 13,711 | 2,797 | 1.04 | 0.21 | | | | 本 期 | | 2026/3/2 | | ...

01丨 中东区域冲突对市场的影响 国联民生证券邓宇林梳理发现，从历史经验看，历次中东区域冲突发生后，各类资产表现特征为： 1、美股往往进入震荡状态；2、黄金或趋势上行；3、白银或震荡上行；4、铜或先震荡再上行；5、 原油或先上行后回落。 中东区域冲突后，VIX往往容易快速冲高，回落后权益资产表现或更好。整体而言，长期看， A股市 场的较好表现需要多资产相关性处于下降的过程或者处于中低位水平。 中信证券机械团队指出， 油服行业运行逻辑遵循"油价上涨-资本开支增加-作业量与费率提升-装备 需求释放"的链条 。全球上游原油资本开支已连续多年不足，202 5年预计下滑6%并跌破4000亿美 元，目前的投资水平仅够维持现状。然而，伊朗拥有占全球9%的原油储量和17%的天然气储量，常 规资源禀赋优异且开采难度较低。 参考委内瑞拉案例，若美国公司未来有望参与伊朗优质常规油气资源的开发，将直接带动油服作业量 和工程需求。即使在OPEC增产背景下，重大的地缘溢价仍可能支撑油价在特定时间内维持高位，从 而解决行业需求侧的长期焦虑，为具备国际合作能力的油服公司带来增量空间。 在当前全球能源格局不稳定的背景下，产业链竞争呈现出两条清 ...

能源化工日报 2026-03-02 2026/03/02 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 张正华 INE 主力原油期货收涨 2.20 元/桶，涨幅 0.45%，报 488.40 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 29.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.97%，报 2960.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 35.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.01%，报 3500.00 元/吨。 橡胶、聚酯、PVC 分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 zhangzh@wkqh.cn 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比累库 0.12 百万桶至 11.02 百万桶，环比累库 1.07%； 柴油库存环比累库 0.66 百万桶至 16.64 百万桶，环比累库 4.15%；燃料油库存环比去库 1.54 百万桶至 5.46 百万桶，环比去库 21.96%；石脑油环比去库 0.29 百万桶至 5.55 百万桶，环 比去库 4.93%；航空煤油环比去库 0.95 百万桶至 6.59 百万桶，环比去库 12.55%；总体成品 油环比去库 1.99 百万桶至 45.27 百万桶，环比去库 4 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical premiums are rising, and the performance of strategic metals is expected to be promising. The ongoing risks from the Israel-Iran conflict are significant, and the safe-haven attributes of precious metals are likely to provide substantial support for their prices. In the industrial metals sector, there was a significant accumulation of copper and aluminum inventories during the Spring Festival. As downstream production resumes, the demand during the peak season will be tested, with a focus on the inventory reduction speed post-holiday, which will determine the strength of industrial product prices [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Geopolitical premiums are increasing, and strategic metals are expected to perform well. The recent military actions between the US and Israel against Iran have led to a halt in oil tanker movements in the Strait of Hormuz, which may elevate inflation expectations due to rising oil prices. The ongoing conflict poses uncontrollable risks, supporting precious metal prices. In the industrial metals sector, significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival will be tested as production resumes [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector saw a weekly increase of 9.77%, ranking second among all industries [27][19]. Key stocks include Zijin Mining (601899, Buy) and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (600988, Buy) [4] 3. Precious Metals - Precious metals are supported by rising geopolitical premiums. As of February 27, SHFE gold rose by 3.41% to 1,147.90 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 4.12% to 5,280.00 USD per ounce. The inventory levels for SHFE gold decreased slightly, while SPDR gold holdings increased by 726,000 ounces [14][30][57] 4. Copper - Copper prices increased by 3.53% to 103,920 CNY per ton on SHFE as of February 27. The supply side remains tight, with significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. The focus is on the inventory reduction speed as production resumes [17][28][72] 5. Aluminum - Aluminum prices rose by 2.76% to 23,835 CNY per ton on SHFE. Supply concerns are heightened due to geopolitical tensions, which may support aluminum prices. The operating rate for aluminum processing has recovered, and inventory levels have increased significantly [16][87][83]

有色金属行业 行业研究 | 行业周报 有色周报：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现 可期 核心观点 投资建议与投资标的 核心观点：地缘溢价抬升，战略金属表现可期。伊以冲突爆发后，继续升温的不可控风 险仍然较大，避险属性预期对贵金属价格将形成明显支撑。工业金属方面，春节期间铜 铝库存大幅累积，随着下游进入复工复产，旺季需求成色将迎来检验，重点关注节后复 工的去库速度，将决定节后工业品价格强度。 投资标的： 相关标的：山东黄金(600547，未评级)、山金国际(000975，未评级)、中金黄金 (600489，未评级)、赤峰黄金(600988，买入)、紫金矿业(601899，买入)、洛阳钼业 (603993，未评级)、中国铝业(601600，未评级)、西部矿业(601168，未评级)、金诚 信(603979，未评级)。 风险提示 下游需求弱于预期、供给端大量释放、美联储降息进程不及预期等。 国家/地区 中国 行业 有色金属行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 01 日 看好维持 | 于嘉懿 | 执业证书编号：S0860525110005 | | --- | --- | | | yujiayi1@orientsec. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoint of the Report - During the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil prices fluctuated sharply. Affected by the news that OPEC might continue to increase production in April and the Iran-US negotiation agreement, Brent crude oil fell to around $66 per barrel on the 17th. Subsequently, with the escalation of the Iran-US situation, the gap between the red lines of the two sides was extremely large, and the war state between the two sides was imminent. Crude oil prices rose significantly, and Brent crude oil once rose to around $72 per barrel. The fundamental changes during the holiday were neutral, with the IEA monthly report being bearish, EIA inventory data being bullish, and OPEC supply policy being bearish. The core contradiction of oil price fluctuations still lies in geopolitical premiums. The latest report indicates that the US may launch a military strike against Iran on February 23rd or 24th. Geopolitical situations have a significant impact on absolute prices. If a full-scale attack occurs, the absolute price may have a large short - term pulse space. If there is no major supply interruption, the fundamental valuation is still around $60 per barrel. Attention should be paid to risk management [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Data - WTI prices changed from $62.84 on February 12th to $65.21 on February 26th, a decrease of $0.21. Brent prices changed from $67.52 to $70.75, a decrease of $0.10. Dubai prices changed from $66.82 to $68.34, an increase of $0.02 [3] - SC prices are not shown on February 12th, and Oman prices changed from $65.97 to $70.44, an increase of $0.80. The difference between SC and Brent changed from 1.13 to - 0.89, a decrease of 0.48 [3] - Japanese naphtha CFR data is not available on February 26th. Singapore fuel oil 380CST changed from 15.05 to 5.4, an increase of 0.8. The difference between Singapore 380 and Brent changed from - 81.38 to - 99.94, an increase of 4.80 [3] 2. Daily News - US officials said that Trump is expected to convene senior advisors on Friday to discuss the Iranian issue in detail and decide on the course of action against Tehran. The focus of the discussion is not whether an attack will occur, but its scope and potential targets, including nuclear facilities, missile bases, state institutions, and infrastructure [3] - Iranian Foreign Minister Araqchi said that the third - round indirect negotiations between Iran and the US achieved good progress. The technical teams of both sides will hold technical negotiations in Vienna, Austria on March 2nd [4] - According to Axios reporters citing US officials, the nuclear negotiations with Iran in Geneva have made positive progress [4] 3. Inventory - US API crude oil inventory for the week ending February 20th was 1142.7 million barrels, with an expected value of 125 million barrels and a previous value of - 60.9 million barrels. API gasoline inventory was - 153.5 million barrels, with an expected value of - 59.1 million barrels and a previous value of - 31.2 million barrels. API refined oil inventory was - 277.1 million barrels, with an expected value of - 190 million barrels and a previous value of - 156.7 million barrels [4] - EIA report: US crude oil exports decreased by 27.7 million barrels per day to 431.3 million barrels per day in the week ending February 20th. Domestic crude oil production decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 1370.2 million barrels per day. Commercial crude oil inventory excluding strategic reserves increased by 1598.9 million barrels to 436 million barrels, an increase of 3.81%. The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 2139.1 million barrels per day, a 5.38% increase compared to the same period last year. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory remained unchanged at 415.4 million barrels. US commercial crude oil imports excluding strategic reserves were 665.9 million barrels per day, an increase of 13.5 million barrels per day compared to the previous week [4][5]

能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2026-02-27 美伊和谈导致油价延续⾼波动，化⼯下 游稳步复⼯ 原油价格在亚洲盘时间段下跌，因彭博报道，美伊核谈判的调解方表 示，目前讨论进展积极，谈判将于周四晚些时候继续进行。美伊正在日内 瓦举行第三轮核谈判，距离特朗普总统设定的达成协议最后期限仅剩几 天。作为调解方的阿曼外交大臣表示，双方交流了"富有创意且积极的想 法"。原油市场本身略显疲态，Brent近月价差在周四盘中一度走弱至每 桶-3美分，短暂进入contango结构，同一指标在上周某一时点曾高达每桶 +69美分；这是自2024年以来，该价差首次在非到期日进入contango结 构。（以上信息来自彭博终端） 板块逻辑： 化工跟随原油进入弱势调整格局中，烯烃表现明显弱于芳烃。化工期 货主力合约小幅下跌后，各品种的基差大都开始走强，现货表现强于期 货。从周度开工看，聚酯和织造开工从春节前的77.6%、0分别升至79. 7%、12%，产业链下游稳步复工中（数据来源CCF）。原料开工本身看，PT A和苯乙烯周度开工略有攀升，PP和PE开工周度环比下滑，整体变动不 大，春季 ...